Clinton versus Trump using polls from 16-Aug-16 to 16-Sep-16


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WKRG 19-Jul-16 19-Jul-16 4100 2.0 33.0 57.0 T+24.0


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 519 4.3 31.5 52.5 T+21.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 7.5% wins (7,469 wins ), Trump: 92.5% wins (92,531 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 704 3.8 38.0 40.0 T+2.0
Gravis 27-Aug-16 27-Aug-16 1244 2.8 40.0 44.0 T+4.0
PPP 26-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 837 --- 43.0 46.0 T+3.0
OHPI 25-Aug-16 27-Aug-16 728 3.6 40.0 39.0 C+1.0
AZ Republic 17-Aug-16 31-Aug-16 704 3.3 35.1 33.5 C+1.6
CNN/ORC 18-Aug-16 23-Aug-16 809 3.5 38.0 45.0 T+7.0


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 29.0 57.0 T+28.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney.

55 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 08-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 678 3.8 57.2 32.3 C+24.8
USC-LA Times 01-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 4212 2.0 49.0 29.0 C+20.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 50.9% wins (50,932 wins ), Trump: 49.1% wins (49,068 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 38.0 42.0 T+4.0
Magellan 29-Aug-16 31-Aug-16 500 4.4 41.0 36.0 C+5.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 1000 3.0 49.8 34.9 C+14.9


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 98.5% wins (98,474 wins ), Trump: 1.5% wins (1,526 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Fairleigh Dickinson 20-Jul-16 24-Jul-16 715 4.1 42.0 32.0 C+10.0


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1317 2.7 65.7 20.2 C+45.5


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 82.1% wins (82,139 wins ), Trump: 17.9% wins (17,861 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
CNN/ORC 07-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 788 3.5 44.0 47.0 T+3.0
JMC Analytics 07-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 781 3.5 42.0 46.0 T+4.0
PPP 04-Sep-16 06-Sep-16 744 3.6 43.0 44.0 T+1.0
Quinnipiac 29-Aug-16 07-Sep-16 761 3.6 43.0 43.0 0.0
Mason-Dixon 22-Aug-16 24-Aug-16 625 4.0 44.0 42.0 C+2.0
FAU 19-Aug-16 22-Aug-16 1200 2.7 40.7 42.9 T+2.2
Cherry 17-Aug-16 22-Aug-16 608 4.0 41.0 44.0 T+3.0
Saint Leo 14-Aug-16 18-Aug-16 1380 3.0 51.7 37.7 C+14.0


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 13.8% wins (13,768 wins ), Trump: 86.2% wins (86,232 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Opinion Savvy 14-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 568 4.1 42.0 46.0 T+4.0
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 39.0 45.0 T+6.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 649 3.8 42.0 44.0 T+2.0
Opinion Savvy 17-Aug-16 17-Aug-16 730 3.6 42.7 43.0 T+0.3


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 999 3.1 49.6 30.5 C+19.1


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dan Jones 18-Aug-16 31-Aug-16 602 4.0 23.0 44.0 T+21.0


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WeAskAmerica 12-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 955 3.2 51.2 32.7 C+18.5


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 8.1% wins (8,119 wins ), Trump: 91.9% wins (91,881 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WTHR/Howey 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 600 4.0 36.0 43.0 T+7.0


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 20.3% wins (20,314 wins ), Trump: 79.7% wins (79,686 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Monmouth 12-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 404 4.9 37.0 45.0 T+8.0
Emerson 31-Aug-16 01-Sep-16 600 3.9 39.2 44.2 T+5.0
PPP 30-Aug-16 31-Aug-16 827 --- 45.0 43.0 C+2.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 2.0% wins (2,016 wins ), Trump: 98.0% wins (97,984 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 06-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 595 4.1 36.1 47.5 T+11.4


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.1% wins (1,132 wins ), Trump: 98.9% wins (98,868 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Harper 31-Jul-16 01-Aug-16 500 4.4 36.0 49.0 T+13.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 13.1% wins (13,057 wins ), Trump: 86.9% wins (86,943 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
ALG 29-Aug-16 01-Sep-16 605 --- 40.0 46.0 T+6.0


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

2 polls

Clinton: 96.8% wins (96,836 wins ), Trump: 3.2% wins (3,164 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 779 3.6 42.4 39.2 C+3.2
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 800 3.4 43.6 34.9 C+8.6


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 382 --- 48.4 31.4 C+17.0
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 404 --- 52.0 30.0 C+22.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

2 polls

Clinton: 5.6% wins (5,610 wins ), Trump: 94.4% wins (94,390 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 04-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 397 --- 36.5 46.9 T+10.3
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 399 --- 36.3 40.6 T+4.3


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
OpinionWorks 18-Aug-16 30-Aug-16 754 3.6 53.7 24.5 C+29.2


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WBUR 07-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 506 4.4 54.0 28.0 C+26.0
Emerson 03-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 500 4.3 49.9 33.3 C+16.6


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 98.5% wins (98,485 wins ), Trump: 1.5% wins (1,515 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
EPIC-MRA 10-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 4.0 38.0 35.0 C+3.0
Mitchell 06-Sep-16 07-Sep-16 940 3.2 45.0 39.0 C+6.0
Emerson 25-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 800 3.4 44.8 39.5 C+5.4
Suffolk 22-Aug-16 24-Aug-16 500 4.4 43.6 37.2 C+6.4


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.8% wins (99,845 wins ), Trump: 0.2% wins (155 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1421 2.6 45.0 35.2 C+9.8


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (97 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,903 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Magellan 11-Aug-16 11-Aug-16 1084 2.9 39.0 52.0 T+13.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (22 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,978 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 09-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 600 3.9 34.0 47.0 T+13.0
MO Scout 01-Sep-16 02-Sep-16 1275 3.0 38.0 47.0 T+9.0
PPP 26-Aug-16 27-Aug-16 1055 --- 41.0 47.0 T+6.0
Monmouth 19-Aug-16 22-Aug-16 401 4.9 43.0 44.0 T+1.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (285 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,715 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1421 2.6 35.8 45.3 T+9.5


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (25 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,975 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1317 2.7 35.3 47.7 T+12.4


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections.



Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 63.3% wins (63,319 wins ), Trump: 36.7% wins (36,681 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Monmouth 11-Sep-16 13-Sep-16 406 4.9 42.0 44.0 T+2.0
NBC/WSJ/Marist 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 627 3.9 41.0 42.0 T+1.0
PPP 06-Sep-16 07-Sep-16 815 --- 45.0 42.0 C+3.0
Suffolk 15-Aug-16 17-Aug-16 500 4.4 43.8 41.6 C+2.2


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 99.4% wins (99,383 wins ), Trump: 0.6% wins (617 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 06-Sep-16 08-Sep-16 737 3.6 39.0 37.0 C+2.0
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 600 3.9 41.8 36.7 C+5.2
PPP 30-Aug-16 31-Aug-16 585 --- 46.0 41.0 C+5.0
PPP 26-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 977 --- 46.0 40.0 C+6.0
WMUR 20-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 443 4.7 43.0 32.0 C+11.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney.

14 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 78.5% wins (78,550 wins ), Trump: 21.5% wins (21,450 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 800 3.4 46.6 42.9 C+3.6


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.4% wins (99,395 wins ), Trump: 0.6% wins (605 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPP 19-Aug-16 23-Aug-16 1103 --- 40.0 31.0 C+9.0


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 28-Aug-16 30-Aug-16 800 3.4 52.1 34.1 C+18.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney.

15 Electoral votes.

8 polls

Clinton: 57.5% wins (57,515 wins ), Trump: 42.5% wins (42,485 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Civitas 11-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 600 4.0 42.0 42.0 0.0
Suffolk 05-Sep-16 07-Sep-16 500 4.4 41.2 44.4 T+3.2
Quinnipiac 29-Aug-16 07-Sep-16 751 3.6 42.0 38.0 C+4.0
Emerson 27-Aug-16 29-Aug-16 800 3.4 43.3 44.8 T+1.5
PPP 26-Aug-16 27-Aug-16 1177 --- 45.0 44.0 C+1.0
Monmouth 20-Aug-16 23-Aug-16 401 4.9 44.0 42.0 C+2.0
CNN/ORC 18-Aug-16 23-Aug-16 803 3.5 45.0 45.0 0.0
Gravis 15-Aug-16 17-Aug-16 723 3.6 38.0 39.0 T+1.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (344 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,656 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1537 2.5 35.6 44.2 T+8.6


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney.

18 Electoral votes.

7 polls

Clinton: 21.9% wins (21,855 wins ), Trump: 78.1% wins (78,145 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Suffolk 12-Sep-16 14-Sep-16 500 4.4 38.6 41.6 T+3.0
Bloomberg 09-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 802 3.5 43.0 48.0 T+5.0
CNN/ORC 07-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 769 3.5 41.0 46.0 T+5.0
Quinnipiac 29-Aug-16 07-Sep-16 775 3.5 37.0 41.0 T+4.0
PPP 26-Aug-16 27-Aug-16 1134 --- 46.0 42.0 C+4.0
Emerson 25-Aug-16 27-Aug-16 800 3.4 42.5 43.4 T+0.9
Monmouth 18-Aug-16 21-Aug-16 402 4.9 43.0 39.0 C+4.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (69 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,931 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Sooner 20-Jul-16 25-Jul-16 298 4.9 29.0 53.0 T+24.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.7% wins (99,698 wins ), Trump: 0.3% wins (302 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
DHM 01-Sep-16 06-Sep-16 517 4.3 38.0 25.0 C+13.0


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 99.4% wins (99,420 wins ), Trump: 0.6% wins (580 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 29-Aug-16 07-Sep-16 778 3.5 44.0 39.0 C+5.0
PPP 30-Aug-16 31-Aug-16 814 --- 47.0 42.0 C+5.0
Monmouth 26-Aug-16 29-Aug-16 402 4.9 48.0 40.0 C+8.0
F&M 25-Aug-16 29-Aug-16 496 5.6 45.0 40.0 C+5.0
PPP 26-Aug-16 27-Aug-16 1194 --- 48.0 43.0 C+5.0
Emerson 25-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 800 3.4 45.8 42.7 C+3.1


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 68.9% wins (68,879 wins ), Trump: 31.1% wins (31,121 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 800 3.4 43.7 41.2 C+2.5


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Trafalgar Group 06-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 1247 2.8 37.6 53.0 T+15.4
Palmetto 30-Aug-16 01-Sep-16 775 3.5 38.0 50.0 T+12.0
Gravis 15-Aug-16 17-Aug-16 768 3.5 37.0 41.0 T+4.0


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (22 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,978 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 831 3.4 32.4 46.7 T+14.3


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 2660 1.9 33.4 49.0 T+15.6


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney.

38 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 2.8% wins (2,807 wins ), Trump: 97.2% wins (97,193 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 07-Sep-16 10-Sep-16 700 3.6 36.1 42.5 T+6.4
Texas Lyceum 01-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 502 4.4 32.0 39.0 T+7.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dan Jones 01-Sep-16 09-Sep-16 605 4.0 24.0 39.0 T+15.0
PPP 19-Aug-16 21-Aug-16 1018 3.1 24.0 39.0 T+15.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Emerson 02-Sep-16 05-Sep-16 600 3.9 47.5 25.7 C+21.8


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney.

13 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 90.3% wins (90,268 wins ), Trump: 9.7% wins (9,732 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPP 09-Sep-16 11-Sep-16 878 3.3 45.0 39.0 C+6.0
UMW 06-Sep-16 12-Sep-16 685 4.4 40.0 37.0 C+3.0
Emerson 31-Aug-16 01-Sep-16 800 3.4 43.5 43.0 C+0.5
Hampton U 24-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 801 --- 43.0 41.0 C+2.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Elway 09-Aug-16 13-Aug-16 500 4.5 43.0 24.0 C+19.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.2% wins (189 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,811 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Repass Res 09-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 386 4.7 31.0 49.0 T+18.0


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 98.3% wins (98,323 wins ), Trump: 1.7% wins (1,677 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Monmouth 27-Aug-16 30-Aug-16 404 4.9 43.0 38.0 C+5.0
PPP 26-Aug-16 27-Aug-16 1054 --- 48.0 41.0 C+7.0
Marquette 25-Aug-16 28-Aug-16 650 5.0 37.0 32.0 C+5.0


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 831 3.4 24.5 58.5 T+34.0