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There have only been something over a dozen new state head-to-head polls since the previous analysis of a general election match-up between Secretary Clinton and Gov. Bush. Previously, the race was, essentially, tied with Clinton having a slight edge. This month, the race is, well…tied. But now Bush has a slight advantage.
The trend can be seen from this graph created from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 16 Oct 2014 to 16 Oct 2015, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
In the month and a half since the previous analysis, the race has remained a tie, with a bounce in Bush’s favor followed by a bounce in Clinton’s favor. There isn’t much we can make of these bounces statistically. All of the data in the recent polls were collected before the Democratic debate, so we cannot even pretend the uptick in favor of Clinton is related to the debate. What is clear, however, is that this past summer, Clinton lost a significant edge she held over Bush.
For the most recent period, the 100,000 simulated elections, puts Clinton ahead 35,187 times and Bush ahead 64,813 times (including the 2,215 ties). Clinton received (on average) 263 to Bush’s 275 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 35.2% probability of winning and Bush would have a 64.8% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 233 electoral votes with a 4.32% probability
- 244 electoral votes with a 3.85% probability
- 264 electoral votes with a 3.48% probability
- 249 electoral votes with a 3.43% probability
- 253 electoral votes with a 3.32% probability
- 260 electoral votes with a 3.22% probability
- 262 electoral votes with a 2.73% probability
- 282 electoral votes with a 2.58% probability
- 280 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
- 257 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 35.2%, Bush wins 64.8%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 262.6 (20.9)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Bush: 275.4 (20.9)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 262 (223, 307)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Bush: 276 (231, 315)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Clinton | 142 | |||
| Strong Clinton | 81 | 223 | ||
| Leans Clinton | 10 | 10 | 233 | |
| Weak Clinton | 11 | 11 | 11 | 244 |
| Weak Bush | 36 | 36 | 36 | 294 |
| Leans Bush | 31 | 31 | 258 | |
| Strong Bush | 150 | 227 | ||
| Safe Bush | 77 |
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Clinton | Bush | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Clinton | Bush | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| AK | 3 | 4* | 2547 | 45.9 | 54.1 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 1* | 492 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.8 | 49.2 | ||
| AR | 6 | 4* | 3756 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 6.2 | 93.8 | ||
| CA | 55 | 2* | 1546 | 57.2 | 42.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 1* | 948 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 8.5 | 91.5 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 1062 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 3 | 2255 | 46.8 | 53.2 | 1.6 | 98.4 | ||
| GA | 16 | 1* | 797 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 41.7 | 58.3 | ||
| HI | 4 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 433 | 39.7 | 60.3 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1* | 810 | 55.2 | 44.8 | 98.3 | 1.7 | ||
| IN | 11 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| IA | 6 | 2 | 2094 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 3.3 | 96.7 | ||
| KS | 6 | 5* | 4536 | 44.8 | 55.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 975 | 45.4 | 54.6 | 2.1 | 97.9 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1 | 752 | 40.4 | 59.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1* | 838 | 63.2 | 36.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| ME2 | 1 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| MD | 10 | 1* | 682 | 59.8 | 40.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 378 | 65.1 | 34.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 1 | 1172 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 93.6 | 6.4 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 873 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 69.4 | 30.6 | ||
| MS | 6 | 2* | 1077 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 5.4 | 94.6 | ||
| MO | 10 | 1* | 748 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 6.0 | 94.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 868 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE2 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE3 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 1* | 582 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.0 | 1.0 | ||
| NH | 4 | 1 | 950 | 46.1 | 53.9 | 5.1 | 94.9 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 3* | 2943 | 61.2 | 38.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 2* | 1232 | 58.5 | 41.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1* | 727 | 59.6 | 40.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 3 | 2571 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 4.5 | 95.5 | ||
| ND | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| OH | 18 | 1 | 991 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 31.1 | 68.9 | ||
| OK | 7 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 832 | 58.7 | 41.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| PA | 20 | 2 | 1763 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 40.7 | 59.3 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 937 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| SD | 3 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TN | 11 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 393 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 3.7 | 96.3 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1* | 538 | 25.8 | 74.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| VA | 13 | 1 | 950 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 22.4 | 77.6 | ||
| WA | 12 | 2* | 1593 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 999 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 1 | 710 | 56.9 | 43.1 | 99.5 | 0.5 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 1071 | 34.8 | 65.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Bush is a snooze. He’ll never get the nomination. Anyways, at this stage, I look at Real Clear Poll national averages as though I’m doing stock technical analysis – trends, trends broken, resistance levels, support levels, etc. I also look at support for establishment candidates and batshit crazy candidates. The batshit insane have over 57% of the poll. The only way I see Bush or Rubio getting the nomination is if both Trump and Carson stay in all the way and either Bush or Rubio drops out.
I was going to let this depress me and then I remembered he can’t think on his feet. When she gets him on stage in front of the world, she’ll make him look like the dim bulb he is. Over and over again.
This essentially comes down to “Bush was governor of Florida and does really well in polls in Florida right now, and otherwise is kind of meh in a few states that are purple, such as Virginia and Ohio.”
“Bush was governor of Florida and does really well in polls in Florida right now”
Not even in Florida. Third place, 14%. Add Rubio at 14.3% and the two of them together barely beat Trump.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-3555.html
It’s Trump’s world. Bush just lives in it.
I was going to let this depress me and then I remembered he can’t think on his feet. When she gets him on stage in front of the world, she’ll make him look like the dim bulb he is.
HAHAHAHAHAHA
Heilary is a great debater? With the competition she had last week that’s your claim? No one challenged Heilary on her positions. The moderator questions were contrived to allow her to put forth a wishy washy stance on her numerour flip flops! And when Chafee challenged her on honesty and trustworthiness, it was a weaksauce attack! We saw how she folded under that great “cranial genius” Obummer in 2008. We see how great that “cranial genius” has been since 2009. .NOT.
DAYUM funny dudes!
Mother Jones has it right… Bernie Sanders Gave a Helluva Defense of Hillary’s Email Scandals at the Debate. There Are 32 Problems With It. Yes there are!
And now the FBI investigators are furious with Obummer’s comments last week on 60 minutes! Yes they are!
Tough shit! Kops ought to read the Constitution. Little thing called the first amendment.
Oh and didn’t some POS troll say Hillary flouted her TWO TERM President’s Executive Order?
Stupid troll. EO wasn’t meant for Hillary. It was for the Bush-Cheney stay behinds!
TROLL LOSES AGAIN!
@2, the problem with that is that people tend not to like a woman who humiliates a man, even when the man is a dim bulb. Clinton already has a problem being perceived as a bossy shrew. She’d have to be very careful in a debate with Bush, because he could gain sympathy points just by trying to debate her.
@2 The problem is a lot of voters are dim bulbs, too, and will empathize with their fellow dim bulb.
A betting man or woman who is betting the odds and wants to win would put a dollar on whoever the Republican candidate is. I doubt in the end the Republican candidate will be Trump or Carson, but they are not playing by the Republican’s rules so who knows. Why wouldn’t it be a Republican’s best strategy to decline doing a debate with the Democratic Candidate. This would show strength of will.
The polls show the situation the Democrats or Republicans normally have after being in power for two terms. It’s possible to get a third term, and the most likely way to succeed is for all intents an coronation of the Vice President as the future President.
I think Joe Biden decision will be made on how Hillary Clinton’s appearance before the Senate investigators goes. If she gets badly skewered or the result is she is slammed in the polls she will be slammed, if not he can quietly stay on the sidelines. Mr Sanders may wisely have taken the issue out of the debates knowing the Republican’s are going to continue to keep the fire going for the branding. And it’s an issue he doesn’t need to preach to the choir about.
While Democrats might like the e-mail issue to go away it won’t, unfortunately the President is unlikely to invoke executive privilege in some form. Which is present here since under Executive Order 13526 Original Classification Authority the Secretary of State has the ability to determine if something under his or her purview should be classified up to Top Secret.
Yet this administration has done 11 cases under the Espionage Act on individuals who actions don’t rise up to what has happened with Hilliary Clinton. They went after a reporter just for possessing a document and was not in any way associated with a foreign power. The Obama administration has gone after members of the media for withholding information and receiving communications.
I agree with the Moynihan Commission on Government Secrecy that there was too much then and there is too much now under an administration that promised more transparency in government and that promise has been spurious.
It’s just possible on the last day of his Presidency that President Obama will issue a Presidential pardon for Hilliary Clinton which will be an ironic moment considering Michael Deutch pardon by President Clinton…so Hilliary has some extra incentive to run so as to stay out of prison. The Republicans have an issue that will continue to make hay from up until the election results if Hilliary remains in.