Clinton versus Bush using polls from 16-Oct-14 to 16-Oct-15

Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 0.3% wins (260 wins ), Bush: 99.7% wins (99,740 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	18-Sep-14	21-Sep-14	880	3.3	39.0	44.0	B+5.0
PPP	31-Jul-14	03-Aug-14	673	3.8	38.0	47.0	B+9.0
PPP	08-May-14	11-May-14	582	4.1	41.0	47.0	B+6.0
PPP	30-Jan-14	01-Feb-14	850	3.4	39.0	47.0	B+8.0

Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 50.8% wins (50,821 wins ), Bush: 49.2% wins (49,179 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	01-May-15	03-May-15	600	4.0	41.0	41.0	0.0

Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 6.2% wins (6,190 wins ), Bush: 93.8% wins (93,810 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	18-Sep-14	21-Sep-14	1453	2.6	42.0	46.0	B+4.0
Gravis	08-Sep-14	11-Sep-14	902	4.0	42.0	49.0	B+7.0
PPP	01-Aug-14	03-Aug-14	1066	3.0	41.0	46.0	B+5.0
PPP	25-Apr-14	27-Apr-14	840	3.4	46.0	41.0	C+5.0

California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney.

55 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Field	23-Apr-15	16-May-15	801	5.0	52.0	31.0	C+21.0
Emerson Col	02-Apr-15	08-Apr-15	881	3.2	53.0	47.0	C+6.0

Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 8.5% wins (8,502 wins ), Bush: 91.5% wins (91,498 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Quinnipiac	09-Jul-15	20-Jul-15	1231	2.8	36.0	41.0	B+5.0

Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Quinnipiac	06-Mar-15	09-Mar-15	1235	2.8	52.0	34.0	C+18.0

Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.

D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.

Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 1.6% wins (1,556 wins ), Bush: 98.4% wins (98,444 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Quinnipiac	25-Sep-15	05-Oct-15	1173	2.9	43.0	44.0	B+1.0
FAU	17-Sep-15	20-Sep-15	801	3.4	40.9	49.1	B+8.1
FL CoC	16-Sep-15	20-Sep-15	605	4.0	37.0	48.0	B+11.0

Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 41.7% wins (41,736 wins ), Bush: 58.3% wins (58,264 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	02-Oct-14	05-Oct-14	895	3.3	44.0	45.0	B+1.0

Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.

Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (59 wins ), Bush: 99.9% wins (99,941 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	09-Oct-14	12-Oct-14	522	4.3	33.0	50.0	B+17.0

Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 98.3% wins (98,335 wins ), Bush: 1.7% wins (1,665 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	20-Jul-15	21-Jul-15	931	3.2	48.0	39.0	C+9.0

Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 3.3% wins (3,255 wins ), Bush: 96.7% wins (96,745 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Marist	23-Sep-15	30-Sep-15	1061	3.0	40.0	50.0	B+10.0
PPP	18-Sep-15	20-Sep-15	1374	3.0	41.0	42.0	B+1.0

Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Bush: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Gravis	20-Oct-14	21-Oct-14	1124	3.0	38.0	49.0	B+11.0
PPP	09-Oct-14	12-Oct-14	1081	3.0	37.0	48.0	B+11.0
Gravis	30-Sep-14	01-Oct-14	850	3.0	38.0	49.0	B+11.0
PPP	11-Sep-14	14-Sep-14	1328	2.7	40.0	46.0	B+6.0
PPP	14-Aug-14	17-Aug-14	903	3.3	39.0	45.0	B+6.0

Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 2.1% wins (2,122 wins ), Bush: 97.9% wins (97,878 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	18-Jun-15	21-Jun-15	1108	2.9	40.0	48.0	B+8.0

Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Bush: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Clarus	20-Sep-15	23-Sep-15	800	3.5	38.0	56.0	B+18.0

Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	08-Nov-13	11-Nov-13	964	3.2	55.0	32.0	C+23.0

Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.

Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.

Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,989 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (11 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Gravis	06-Oct-14	09-Oct-14	784	3.5	52.0	35.0	C+17.0

Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
WNEU	01-Oct-15	08-Oct-15	425	---	58.0	31.0	C+27.0

Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 93.6% wins (93,610 wins ), Bush: 6.4% wins (6,390 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Mitchell	18-Sep-15	18-Sep-15	1483	2.5	42.0	37.0	C+5.0

Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 69.4% wins (69,406 wins ), Bush: 30.6% wins (30,594 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	30-Jul-15	02-Aug-15	1015	3.1	44.0	42.0	C+2.0

Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 5.4% wins (5,366 wins ), Bush: 94.6% wins (94,634 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	10-Jul-14	13-Jul-14	691	3.7	42.0	47.0	B+5.0
PPP	15-Nov-13	17-Nov-13	502	4.4	42.0	50.0	B+8.0

Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 6.0% wins (6,003 wins ), Bush: 94.0% wins (93,997 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	07-Aug-15	09-Aug-15	859	3.3	40.0	47.0	B+7.0

Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (84 wins ), Bush: 99.9% wins (99,916 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Gravis	24-Feb-15	25-Feb-15	1035	3.0	35.4	48.5	B+13.1

Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.0% wins (98,985 wins ), Bush: 1.0% wins (1,015 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	13-Jul-15	14-Jul-15	677	3.8	49.0	37.0	C+12.0

New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 5.1% wins (5,071 wins ), Bush: 94.9% wins (94,929 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Marist	23-Sep-15	30-Sep-15	1044	3.0	42.0	49.0	B+7.0

New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney.

14 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Quinnipiac	09-Apr-15	14-Apr-15	1428	2.6	53.0	33.0	C+20.0
Rutgers	03-Feb-15	10-Feb-15	694	4.2	58.0	32.0	C+26.0
Quinnipiac	15-Jan-15	19-Jan-15	1211	2.8	53.0	37.0	C+16.0

New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Gravis	27-Sep-14	01-Oct-14	727	4.0	50.0	36.0	C+14.0
PPP	20-Mar-14	23-Mar-14	674	3.8	53.0	37.0	C+16.0

New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Siena	14-Sep-15	17-Sep-15	817	4.0	53.0	36.0	C+17.0

North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney.

15 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 4.5% wins (4,459 wins ), Bush: 95.5% wins (95,541 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Civitas	28-Sep-15	30-Sep-15	600	4.0	41.0	45.0	B+4.0
PPP	24-Sep-15	27-Sep-15	1268	2.8	41.0	46.0	B+5.0
Elon	17-Sep-15	21-Sep-15	1075	3.0	42.6	46.0	B+3.3

North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney.

18 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 31.1% wins (31,052 wins ), Bush: 68.9% wins (68,948 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Quinnipiac	25-Sep-15	05-Oct-15	1180	2.9	41.0	43.0	B+2.0

Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,989 wins ), Bush: 0.0% wins (11 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	22-May-14	27-May-14	956	3.2	51.0	36.0	C+15.0

Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 40.7% wins (40,684 wins ), Bush: 59.3% wins (59,316 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	08-Oct-15	11-Oct-15	1012	3.1	45.0	40.0	C+5.0
Quinnipiac	25-Sep-15	05-Oct-15	1049	3.0	40.0	46.0	B+6.0

Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.

South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.6% wins (563 wins ), Bush: 99.4% wins (99,437 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	03-Sep-15	06-Sep-15	1115	---	37.0	47.0	B+10.0

South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Bush assumed to win all elections.

Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 3.7% wins (3,707 wins ), Bush: 96.3% wins (96,293 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Texas Lyceum	08-Sep-15	21-Sep-15	633	3.1	27.0	35.0	B+8.0

Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Bush: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Dan Jones	08-Sep-15	17-Sep-15	604	4.0	23.0	66.0	B+43.0

Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

0 polls

Clinton assumed to win all elections.

Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney.

13 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 22.4% wins (22,395 wins ), Bush: 77.6% wins (77,605 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
CNU	29-Sep-15	08-Oct-15	1067	3.2	43.0	46.0	B+3.0

Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney.

12 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 99.9% wins (99,937 wins ), Bush: 0.1% wins (63 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Gravis	18-May-15	19-May-15	1032	3.0	45.0	37.0	C+8.0
PPP	14-May-15	17-May-15	879	3.3	48.0	37.0	C+11.0

West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (8 wins ), Bush: 100.0% wins (99,992 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	19-Sep-13	22-Sep-13	1110	2.9	38.0	52.0	B+14.0

Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.5% wins (99,544 wins ), Bush: 0.5% wins (456 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
Marquette	24-Sep-15	28-Sep-15	803	---	50.4	38.1	C+12.3

Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Bush: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

	Start	End	Sample		%	%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Clinton	Bush	Diff
PPP	19-Jul-13	21-Jul-13	1203	2.8	31.0	58.0	B+27.0