Poll Analysis: Clinton slips a little more

Clinton	Trump
86.8% probability of winning	13.2% probability of winning
Mean of 290 electoral votes	Mean of 248 electoral votes

On Friday, my analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with a mean of 295 to 243 electoral votes. If the election had been held on Friday, Clinton would have won with a 94.2% probability.

There were only a few new polls released on Saturday. On Sunday a few more were released and I found a few missing from the database. We now have eleven new polls added since the last analysis. Of course, some polls will “age-out” on account of being more than ten days old.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 86,835 times and Trump wins 13,165 times (including the 2,645 ties). Clinton received (on average) 290 (-5) to Trump’s 248 (+5) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 86.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 13.2% probability of winning.

The biggest changes occur in ten states + Maine’s two Congressional districts. Five of these changes favor Clinton and six favor Trump.

• Florida (+Clinton): No new polls in Florida, but five polls slightly favoring Trump “age out”. This shifts Clinton’s chances from 43% to 53%. Florida is still a toss-up, but now Clinton has a tiny edge.
  
• Georgia (+Clinton): We lost one and gained one poll. The four current polls are slightly better for Clinton. Trump drops from a 96% chance to a 91% chance of taking the state.
  
• Iowa (+Trump): Two new polls, including one Trump+7% poll shifts Trump’s chances from 70% to 89%.
  
• Maine (+Trump): No new polling, but one poll ages out. In the state overall, Clinton drops from 90% to 79% chance of winning the state.
• Maine CD-1 (+Trump): Maine’s CD-1 has changed as well. Clinton drops from 98% to 82% chance.
• Maine CD-2 (+Clinton): The dropped poll favored Trump. Now we have one poll that favors Clinton. Her chances have gone from 44% to 62%, flipping ME-2 from red to blue.
• Nevada (+Trump): We lose a poll and gain a poll since Friday for a total of four current polls. The new poll, from the Trafalgar Group, is a Republican pollser. Remington Research, another Republican pollster, contributes as well. The net result is that Trump has gone from 86% to 96% chances in the state. Yes…I’ve read about the early voting, and even read the piece about how Harry Reid has put Nevada out of reach for Trump. Still, my analyses are driven by polls.
  
• New Hampshire (+Trump): One poll has aged out. It is Clinton+3%, so Trump goes from a 51% chance on Friday to a 58% chance today.
  
• New Mexico (+Clinton): We had a Clinton+3% poll on Friday, and the addition of a second poll, with Clinton at +5%, so Clinton goes from chances of 77% to 86%.
  
• North Carolina (+Trump): Four polls drop out, and three favored Clinton, plus a tie. Here is another case where we have a pair of polls from Remington Research and The Grafalgar Group, both G.O.P. pollsters. The result is Trump moves from a 46% probability to a 91% probability of taking North Carolina.
  
• Ohio (+Clinton): We lose two old polls (a tie and a Trump+4.4% from Trafalgar Group) and gain one new poll (Clinton+1% from a mail-in Columbus Dispatch poll). The result is that Trump’s chances have dropped from 96% to 86%.
  

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06 Nov 2015 to 06 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The distribution takes on an interesting bimodal (or even trimodal) form. The major modes at 301 and 272 are caused by the fact that Florida is nearly a toss-up (272 + Florida’s 29 EVs = 301). If tonight was election night, an early call in Florida would tell us whether Clinton walks away with the election or whether it is going to be a long night!

The small variability around the two major modes is largely driven by the fact that New Hampshire is almost a toss-up.

That third mode to the right is largely driven by Ohio, which isn’t quit a toss-up at an 86% chance of going to Trump.

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):

• 301 electoral votes with a 4.64% probability
• 272 electoral votes with a 4.38% probability
• 271 electoral votes with a 3.46% probability
• 300 electoral votes with a 3.43% probability
• 275 electoral votes with a 3.08% probability
• 276 electoral votes with a 3.04% probability
• 304 electoral votes with a 2.97% probability
• 305 electoral votes with a 2.94% probability
• 298 electoral votes with a 2.74% probability
• 269 electoral votes with a 2.65% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

• Clinton wins 86.8%, Trump wins 13.2%.
• Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 290.3 (18.4)
• Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 247.7 (18.4)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 292 (259, 323)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 246 (215, 279)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Clinton	109
Strong Clinton	144	253
Leans Clinton	19	19	272
Weak Clinton	29	29	29	301
Weak Trump	4	4	4	237
Leans Trump	25	25	233
Strong Trump	83	208
Safe Trump	125

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

	1	0	EC	#	Total	%	%	Clinton	Trump
	2	8	Votes	polls	Votes	Clinton	Trump	% wins	% wins
AL			9	1*	2400	40.0	60.0	0.0	100.0
AK			3	1*	360	52.2	47.8	73.3	26.7
AZ			11	5	3467	47.2	52.8	1.0	99.0
AR			6	1*	556	37.9	62.1	0.0	100.0
CA			55	1	675	61.6	38.4	100.0	0.0
CO			9	6	9574	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
CT			7	1*	847	58.8	41.2	100.0	0.0
DE			3	1*	618	62.9	37.1	100.0	0.0
DC			3	1*	1131	76.5	23.5	100.0	0.0
FL			29	6	5227	50.0	50.0	51.3	48.7
GA			16	4	3044	48.2	51.8	8.7	91.3
HI			4	1*	801	61.9	38.1	100.0	0.0
ID			4	1*	774	30.9	69.1	0.0	100.0
IL			20	1	470	56.4	43.6	98.1	1.9
IN			11	2	868	43.7	56.3	0.3	99.7
IA			6	3	1715	47.9	52.1	11.2	88.8
KS			6	2	826	41.2	58.8	0.0	100.0
KY			8	2	1267	38.4	61.6	0.0	100.0
LA			8	4*	2145	42.1	57.9	0.0	100.0
ME			2	1	660	52.3	47.7	79.0	21.0
ME1			1	1	345	53.3	46.7	81.7	18.3
ME2			1	1	323	51.1	48.9	62.0	38.0
MD			10	2*	1062	70.0	30.0	100.0	0.0
MA			11	1	342	68.4	31.6	100.0	0.0
MI			16	7	4806	52.1	47.9	97.8	2.2
MN			10	2*	1111	55.3	44.7	99.2	0.8
MS			6	1*	987	42.9	57.1	0.0	100.0
MO			10	5	4488	42.8	57.2	0.0	100.0
MT			3	2*	1345	46.1	53.9	2.4	97.6
NE			2	1*	594	34.5	65.5	0.0	100.0
NE1			1	1*	191	35.6	64.4	0.3	99.7
NE2			1	1*	207	44.9	55.1	15.5	84.5
NE3			1	1*	199	23.6	76.4	0.0	100.0
NV			6	4	3229	47.8	52.2	3.6	96.4
NH			4	7	3715	49.8	50.2	41.9	58.1
NJ			14	1	617	56.1	43.9	98.2	1.8
NM			5	2	1410	52.1	47.9	86.2	13.8
NY			29	1	525	60.0	40.0	99.9	0.1
NC			15	4	3385	48.3	51.7	9.1	90.9
ND			3	1*	300	42.7	57.3	3.6	96.4
OH			18	3	2685	48.5	51.5	14.4	85.6
OK			7	1*	477	33.3	66.7	0.0	100.0
OR			7	1	378	54.8	45.2	89.9	10.1
PA			20	10	10464	51.7	48.3	99.1	0.9
RI			4	1*	504	61.9	38.1	100.0	0.0
SC			9	2*	1509	42.9	57.1	0.0	100.0
SD			3	3*	1857	43.5	56.5	0.0	100.0
TN			11	2*	1185	43.0	57.0	0.0	100.0
TX			38	3	2489	43.7	56.3	0.0	100.0
UT			6	3	974	39.2	60.8	0.0	100.0
VT			3	1*	437	69.1	30.9	100.0	0.0
VA			13	5	3906	52.2	47.8	97.5	2.5
WA			12	1	598	57.0	43.0	98.9	1.1
WV			5	1*	440	31.8	68.2	0.0	100.0
WI			10	3	3173	52.9	47.1	99.1	0.9
WY			3	1*	563	25.6	74.4	0.0	100.0

^* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Follow me on Twitter (@hominidviews) for poll updates and other political stuff.