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The previous analysis showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by an average of 309 to 229 electoral votes, giving Clinton a 97% probability of winning an election held then.
There have been 33 new polls released since then, many of them from electorally “interesting” states. So now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,315 times and Trump wins 685 times (including the 169 ties). Clinton received (on average) 325 to Trump’s 213 electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Clinton to win with a 99.3% probability and Trump with a 0.7% probability.
A number of states are worth examining in more detail.
Florida has a couple of new polls and three polls that “aged out” from the last analysis. One poll has the candidates tied up, and the other has Clinton up +4.4. The net result is that Clinton’s probability of winning has gone from 37% to 67%. This is still very nearly a tie, but the state moves from light red to light blue.
The raw polling results paint a picture of a state that “swings.”
Georgia is quite interesting. Two new polls came out this week with Clinton up +3.3 and +7. The three other polls have Trump up 0.2%, 3.3% and 2%. The net result is that Clinton has gone from a 30% probability of taking the state to a 69% chance. Perhaps surprisingly, Georgia is painted blue.
There is a clear uptick for Clinton in the most recent polls. More polling will be needed to establish whether this is a bump or a real change.
Nevada gains two new polls and loses an old one. The new polls have Clinton up by +2 and +4, increasing Clinton’s chances from 42% to 67%. Nevada goes blue although, like Georgia and Florida, the state is nearly a toss-up. The polling trends look real and in Clinton’s direction but, again, it could be a transient “surge.”
New Hampshire is totally odd. With one new poll added to two previous polls, we have one tie, one with Trump up +9.4% and the newest poll with Clinton up +15. The addition of the last poll drops Trump’s chances from 98.3% to 62%. The variability in recent polls look like a fluke. Clinton used to have a solid lead, but now likely maintains a slight lead in the state.
North Carolina moves in Trump’s direction. Two polls age out and two new polls are released, the newest with Clinton up +2 and other with Trump up +4. That second poll was done by Survey USA, and commissioned by Civitas, a right-wing “think tank”.
I rarely bother second guessing polls, particularly from well-established, high-quality pollsters like Survey USA. But this poll is clearly an outlier. The crosstabs show 32% of Black individuals supporting Trump. That is inconsistent with other polls, and just doesn’t seem plausible.
Pennsylvania gets four new polls and loses a couple of older ones for a total of six polls. Here is what they look like, newest to oldest: Clinton +9, +9, +9, +11, +3, and +9. Consequently, Pennsylvania, which people refer to as a swing state despite being reliably Democratic in recent Presidential electinos, would go for Clinton with 100% probability in an election now.
Virginia loses two polls and adds one new poll with Clinton up by +12. The two existing polls have Trump up +4 and Clinton up +5. The net result is that Clinton’s chances have gone up a bit from 82% to 99%. The polling history shows Clinton reliably in the lead, but with the race tightening up in more recent polls.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Aug 2015 to 10 Aug 2016, and including polls from the preceding 1month (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 331 electoral votes with a 2.29% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
- 337 electoral votes with a 2.13% probability
- 332 electoral votes with a 2.03% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability
- 346 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability
- 327 electoral votes with a 1.98% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 1.98% probability
- 324 electoral votes with a 1.97% probability
- 330 electoral votes with a 1.93% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 99.3%, Trump wins 0.7%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 324.6 (21.5)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 213.4 (21.5)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 326 (280, 362)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 212 (176, 258)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Clinton | 140 | |||
| Strong Clinton | 104 | 244 | ||
| Leans Clinton | 93 | 93 | 337 | |
| Weak Clinton | 15 | 15 | 15 | 352 |
| Weak Trump | 1 | 1 | 1 | 186 |
| Leans Trump | 15 | 15 | 185 | |
| Strong Trump | 108 | 170 | ||
| Safe Trump | 62 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Clinton | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Clinton | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1 | 3690 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1* | 435 | 37.5 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 3 | 2419 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 27.7 | 72.3 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 623 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 1.0 | 99.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 1 | 803 | 60.5 | 39.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 2 | 725 | 57.4 | 42.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 1024 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 93.4 | 6.6 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1 | 529 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 98.4 | 1.6 | ||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1131 | 76.5 | 23.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 2 | 1318 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 67.1 | 32.9 | ||
| GA | 16 | 5 | 2823 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 68.6 | 31.4 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 801 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1 | 402 | 34.3 | 65.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 2 | 1654 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 1779 | 44.9 | 55.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| IA | 6 | 3 | 1962 | 46.4 | 53.6 | 1.2 | 98.8 | ||
| KS | 6 | 3 | 1317 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 1.2 | 98.8 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1 | 425 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 1.6 | 98.4 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 1285 | 39.4 | 60.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 1* | 366 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 89.3 | 10.7 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 1* | 201 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 96.6 | 3.4 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 1* | 162 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 44.8 | 55.2 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2* | 2657 | 65.2 | 34.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 2* | 2086 | 62.1 | 37.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 4 | 2392 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 1139 | 56.1 | 43.9 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| MS | 6 | 2* | 1783 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MO | 10 | 4 | 4029 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 1153 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 1093 | 42.5 | 57.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE2 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE3 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 4 | 2889 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 67.4 | 32.6 | ||
| NH | 4 | 3 | 1837 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 38.0 | 62.0 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 2* | 568 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1* | 774 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 76.5 | 23.5 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 861 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 2 | 1049 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.1 | 49.9 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 1226 | 44.6 | 55.4 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| OH | 18 | 5 | 3770 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 80.9 | 19.1 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1 | 244 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 580 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 76.2 | 23.8 | ||
| PA | 20 | 6 | 4087 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1* | 886 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| SC | 9 | 1* | 1380 | 44.2 | 55.8 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 657 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 2191 | 40.5 | 59.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 1* | 852 | 45.1 | 54.9 | 2.1 | 97.9 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1 | 531 | 40.3 | 59.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 356 | 69.7 | 30.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 3 | 2030 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 98.8 | 1.2 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 584 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.1 | 0.9 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1* | 1187 | 33.4 | 66.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 1* | 536 | 52.4 | 47.6 | 78.4 | 21.6 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 690 | 29.6 | 70.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Unlike Washington, Oregon requires ballots be received by the close of polls on election day. So generally they must be in the mail a week ahead to ensure they are counted.
I wonder about the Bernie or Busters holding onto their ballots until the last minute to cast a “symbolic” vote (for Bernie or blank) once they know Clinton has it sewed up. That kind of bullshit could fuck up down ballot races. Berners are not an insignificant percentage of the electorate here. And their continuing Hodor is probably part of why Oregon polls are far weaker for Clinton when compared to Obama.
I guess if they wanna have a groovy Bernie meetup on the 8th and send somebody to a drop box with all their ballots that’d be cool. But I’m deeply suspicious of that kind of douchebaggery for purely symbolic purposes. Politics is more than symbolism.
I have a feeling the polls showing Clinton merely 15 points ahead of Drump are about to change dramatically:
“More than 70 Republicans have signed an open letter urging RNC Chairman Reince Priebus to cut off funding to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and instead use the funds to finance Republican Senate and House races, according to a letter obtained by CBS News.
“‘We believe that Donald Trump’s divisiveness, recklessness, incompetence, and record-breaking unpopularity risk turning this election into a Democratic landslide, and only the immediate shift of all available RNC resources to vulnerable Senate and House races will prevent the GOP from drowning with a Trump-emblazoned anchor around its neck,’ a draft of the letter stated. ‘This should not be a difficult decision, as Donald Trump’s chances of being elected president are evaporating by the day.'”
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/re.....und-trump/
Roger Rabbit Commentary: Yeah, it doesn’t help their chances when their candidate encourages the party’s rank-and-file to assassinate the Democratic nominee.
If you’re getting your ass kicked, the thing to do is create a polling website, then make up your own polls. At least you’ll sleep at night until Election Day brings you back to reality.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/fea.....nst-trump/
@3
And then the nutters can point to internal polls saying
RomneyTrump was gonna win…. skewed… 2nd Ammendment….Kenyan Muslim…founded ISIS.Slightly OT
Heard one of the bigger TW radio losers (haven’t had a win for the guy you pimp since ’08) warning Republicans criticizing Trump that they better stop or Hillary will get to “Appoint the most radical Supreme Court Justices…”
Read the polls. This thing is as over as it can be in August and it’s the nominees fault on his own.
Heh, maybe Garland should get a vote.
Aside, On January 20th Hillary should pull Garland and nominate the most leftist person she can find. Just to say, “Booya bitches. I’m gonna spend some of that political Capital. Can you say landslide? I can say landslide.”
@4 I’m beginning to appreciate why monarchs and dictators hate free speech. I don’t agree with them, but I understand where they’re coming from.
@5 And then, when her TWO TERMS are nearly up, she should appoint herself to the Supreme Court. That’ll really get their panties in a knot.
You guys need to go over to Fred Reed’s website for his latest comments on Hillary & The Donald: fredoneverything.org
The best candidate for Supreme Court is Judge Andrew Napolitano.
@1 Only thing I can say is god for those Bernie folk. Revenge is best served at the ballot box.
It’s August and if Hilliary peaks now it’s a long time to the election.
Could be part of Trump’s strategy is to get one or more of the minor party candidates into the debates. Guessing the courts aren’t going to move on the lawsuit the minor parties have in the courts against the SEC and Debate organizers.
Why are there still red-colored states on these maps?
WTF is wrong with people?
@11,
SEC? Damn! BCS isn’t enough for those bastards! Now they’re trying to throw the election?
@8,
Awesome! I love those conservative satire websites.
Here’s another you’ll like!