Clinton versus Trump using polls from 10-Aug-15 to 10-Aug-16


Alabama

2004 Result: 36.84% Kerry, 62.46% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.74% Obama, 60.32% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.36% Obama, 60.55% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WKRG 19-Jul-16 19-Jul-16 4100 2.0 33.0 57.0 T+24.0


Alaska

2004 Result: 35.52% Kerry, 61.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 37.89% Obama, 59.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.81% Obama, 54.80% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 519 4.3 31.5 52.5 T+21.0


Arizona

2004 Result: 44.40% Kerry, 54.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 45.11% Obama, 53.63% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.59% Obama, 53.65% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 27.7% wins (27,653 wins ), Trump: 72.3% wins (72,347 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
CBS 02-Aug-16 05-Aug-16 1095 4.8 42.0 44.0 T+2.0
OHPI 01-Aug-16 01-Aug-16 996 3.1 45.0 42.0 C+3.0
IWS 29-Jul-16 29-Jul-16 679 3.8 41.3 48.8 T+7.5


Arkansas

2004 Result: 44.55% Kerry, 54.31% Bush.

2008 Result: 38.86% Obama, 58.72% McCain.

2012 Result: 36.88% Obama, 60.57% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.0% wins (981 wins ), Trump: 99.0% wins (99,019 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Hendrix College 21-Jun-16 21-Jun-16 751 3.6 36.0 47.0 T+11.0


California

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 44.36% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.01% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.24% Obama, 37.12% Romney.

55 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPIC 10-Jul-16 19-Jul-16 1056 4.3 46.0 30.0 C+16.0


Colorado

2004 Result: 47.02% Kerry, 51.69% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.66% Obama, 44.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.49% Obama, 46.13% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 99.6% wins (99,621 wins ), Trump: 0.4% wins (379 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Monmouth 09-Jul-16 12-Jul-16 404 4.9 48.0 35.0 C+13.0
Fox 09-Jul-16 12-Jul-16 600 4.0 37.0 28.0 C+9.0


Connecticut

2004 Result: 54.31% Kerry, 43.95% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.59% Obama, 38.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.06% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 93.4% wins (93,414 wins ), Trump: 6.6% wins (6,586 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 01-Jun-16 05-Jun-16 1330 2.7 41.0 36.0 C+5.0


Delaware

2004 Result: 53.35% Kerry, 45.75% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.94% Obama, 36.95% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.61% Obama, 39.98% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 98.4% wins (98,438 wins ), Trump: 1.6% wins (1,562 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Fairleigh Dickinson 20-Jul-16 24-Jul-16 715 4.1 42.0 32.0 C+10.0


D.C.

2004 Result: 89.18% Kerry, 9.34% Bush.

2008 Result: 92.46% Obama, 6.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 90.91% Obama, 7.28% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1317 2.7 65.7 20.2 C+45.5


Florida

2004 Result: 47.09% Kerry, 52.10% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.03% Obama, 48.22% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.01% Obama, 49.13% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 67.1% wins (67,109 wins ), Trump: 32.9% wins (32,891 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 30-Jul-16 07-Aug-16 1056 3.0 43.0 43.0 0.0
Suffolk 01-Aug-16 03-Aug-16 500 4.4 43.2 38.8 C+4.4


Georgia

2004 Result: 41.37% Kerry, 57.97% Bush.

2008 Result: 46.99% Obama, 52.20% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.48% Obama, 53.30% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 68.6% wins (68,603 wins ), Trump: 31.4% wins (31,397 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
JMC 06-Aug-16 07-Aug-16 615 4.0 44.0 37.0 C+7.0
AJC 01-Aug-16 04-Aug-16 766 4.0 40.7 37.6 C+3.1
Landmark 01-Aug-16 01-Aug-16 787 3.5 45.7 45.9 T+0.2
SurveyUSA 29-Jul-16 31-Jul-16 629 4.0 42.3 45.6 T+3.3
Landmark 24-Jul-16 24-Jul-16 500 4.0 44.0 46.0 T+2.0


Hawaii

2004 Result: 54.01% Kerry, 45.26% Bush.

2008 Result: 71.85% Obama, 26.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 70.55% Obama, 27.84% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 999 3.1 49.6 30.5 C+19.1


Idaho

2004 Result: 30.26% Kerry, 68.38% Bush.

2008 Result: 36.10% Obama, 61.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 32.62% Obama, 64.53% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dan Jones 05-Jul-16 16-Jul-16 601 4.0 23.0 44.0 T+21.0


Illinois

2004 Result: 54.82% Kerry, 44.48% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 57.60% Obama, 40.73% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Victory 14-Jul-16 16-Jul-16 1200 2.8 50.9 34.3 C+16.6
Basswood 11-Jul-16 12-Jul-16 800 3.5 46.4 32.5 C+13.9


Indiana

2004 Result: 39.26% Kerry, 59.94% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.95% Obama, 48.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.93% Obama, 54.13% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (101 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,899 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 2178 2.1 36.7 45.0 T+8.3


Iowa

2004 Result: 49.23% Kerry, 49.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 53.93% Obama, 44.39% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.99% Obama, 46.18% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 1.2% wins (1,212 wins ), Trump: 98.8% wins (98,788 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 03-Aug-16 07-Aug-16 899 3.3 35.0 35.0 0.0
Docking 11-Jul-16 21-Jul-16 765 4.4 27.0 44.0 T+17.0
CBS 13-Jul-16 15-Jul-16 998 4.8 39.0 40.0 T+1.0


Kansas

2004 Result: 36.62% Kerry, 62.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.65% Obama, 56.61% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.99% Obama, 59.71% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 1.2% wins (1,236 wins ), Trump: 98.8% wins (98,764 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
SurveyUSA 03-Aug-16 07-Aug-16 567 4.2 44.1 38.6 C+5.5
Docking 11-Jul-16 21-Jul-16 542 4.4 27.0 44.0 T+17.0
SurveyUSA 08-Jul-16 13-Jul-16 559 4.2 36.3 46.7 T+10.4


Kentucky

2004 Result: 39.69% Kerry, 59.55% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.17% Obama, 57.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 37.80% Obama, 60.49% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 1.6% wins (1,553 wins ), Trump: 98.4% wins (98,447 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Harper 31-Jul-16 01-Aug-16 500 4.4 36.0 49.0 T+13.0


Louisiana

2004 Result: 42.22% Kerry, 56.72% Bush.

2008 Result: 39.93% Obama, 58.56% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.58% Obama, 57.78% Romney.

8 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1537 2.5 32.9 50.7 T+17.8


Maine

2004 Result: 53.57% Kerry, 44.58% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.67% Obama, 40.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.27% Obama, 40.98% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Maine allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 89.3% wins (89,272 wins ), Trump: 10.7% wins (10,728 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPH/MST 15-Jun-16 21-Jun-16 475 4.5 42.0 35.0 C+7.0


Maine-1

2004 Result: 43.00% Kerry, 55.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 60.51% Obama, 37.69% McCain.

2012 Result: 59.57% Obama, 38.18% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 96.6% wins (96,613 wins ), Trump: 3.4% wins (3,387 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPH/MST 15-Jun-16 21-Jun-16 247 4.5 48.0 33.0 C+15.0


Maine-2

2004 Result: 46.00% Kerry, 52.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.61% Obama, 43.35% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.94% Obama, 44.38% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

1 poll

Clinton: 44.8% wins (44,765 wins ), Trump: 55.2% wins (55,235 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPH/MST 15-Jun-16 21-Jun-16 222 4.5 36.0 37.0 T+1.0


Maryland

2004 Result: 55.91% Kerry, 42.93% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.92% Obama, 36.47% McCain.

2012 Result: 61.97% Obama, 35.90% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1537 2.5 51.1 32.8 C+18.3
PPP 15-Apr-16 17-Apr-16 879 3.3 61.0 28.0 C+33.0


Massachusetts

2004 Result: 61.94% Kerry, 36.78% Bush.

2008 Result: 61.80% Obama, 35.99% McCain.

2012 Result: 60.65% Obama, 37.51% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1984 2.2 49.8 33.3 C+16.5
Suffolk 02-May-16 05-May-16 500 4.4 54.8 31.4 C+23.4


Michigan

2004 Result: 51.23% Kerry, 47.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.43% Obama, 40.96% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.21% Obama, 44.71% Romney.

16 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 99.4% wins (99,406 wins ), Trump: 0.6% wins (594 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
EPIC-MRA 30-Jul-16 04-Aug-16 600 4.0 43.0 32.0 C+11.0
Detroit News 30-Jul-16 01-Aug-16 600 4.0 41.0 36.6 C+4.4
CBS 13-Jul-16 15-Jul-16 1201 4.1 42.0 39.0 C+3.0
MRG 11-Jul-16 15-Jul-16 800 3.5 34.0 29.0 C+5.0


Minnesota

2004 Result: 51.09% Kerry, 47.61% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.06% Obama, 43.82% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.65% Obama, 44.96% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.8% wins (99,844 wins ), Trump: 0.2% wins (156 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1421 2.6 45.0 35.2 C+9.8


Mississippi

2004 Result: 39.75% Kerry, 59.44% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.00% Obama, 56.18% McCain.

2012 Result: 43.79% Obama, 55.29% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1537 2.5 33.2 51.1 T+17.9
Mason-Dixon 28-Mar-16 30-Mar-16 625 4.0 39.0 39.0 0.0


Missouri

2004 Result: 46.10% Kerry, 53.30% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.29% Obama, 49.43% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.38% Obama, 53.76% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
MO Scout 05-Aug-16 06-Aug-16 1280 3.0 42.0 44.0 T+2.0
Mason-Dixon 23-Jul-16 24-Jul-16 625 4.0 41.0 40.0 C+1.0
SurveyUSA 20-Jul-16 24-Jul-16 1943 2.3 37.2 47.1 T+9.9
PPP 11-Jul-16 12-Jul-16 959 3.2 36.0 46.0 T+10.0


Montana

2004 Result: 38.56% Kerry, 59.07% Bush.

2008 Result: 47.25% Obama, 49.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.70% Obama, 55.35% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.2% wins (240 wins ), Trump: 99.8% wins (99,760 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1421 2.6 35.8 45.3 T+9.5


Nebraska

2004 Result: 32.68% Kerry, 65.90% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.60% Obama, 56.53% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.03% Obama, 59.80% Romney.

2 Electoral votes. Nebraska allocates an elector to the winner of each congressional district, and two more electoral votes for the state-wide popular vote winner.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (18 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (99,982 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1317 2.7 35.3 47.7 T+12.4


Nebraska-1

2004 Result: 36.00% Kerry, 63.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.34% Obama, 54.09% McCain.

2012 Result: 40.95% Obama, 57.59% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-2

2004 Result: 38.00% Kerry, 60.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.96% Obama, 48.76% McCain.

2012 Result: 45.78% Obama, 52.95% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections.



Nebraska-3

2004 Result: 24.00% Kerry, 75.00% Bush.

2008 Result: 29.63% Obama, 68.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.94% Obama, 70.56% Romney.

1 Electoral vote.

0 polls

Trump assumed to win all elections.



Nevada

2004 Result: 47.88% Kerry, 50.47% Bush.

2008 Result: 55.15% Obama, 42.65% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.36% Obama, 45.68% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

4 polls

Clinton: 67.4% wins (67,410 wins ), Trump: 32.6% wins (32,590 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
CBS 02-Aug-16 05-Aug-16 993 4.6 43.0 41.0 C+2.0
Rasmussen 01-Aug-16 02-Aug-16 1000 3.0 44.0 40.0 C+4.0
Rasmussen 29-Jul-16 31-Jul-16 750 4.0 41.0 40.0 C+1.0
Rasmussen 22-Jul-16 24-Jul-16 750 4.0 38.0 43.0 T+5.0


New Hampshire

2004 Result: 50.24% Kerry, 48.87% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.13% Obama, 44.52% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.98% Obama, 46.40% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 38.0% wins (38,014 wins ), Trump: 62.0% wins (61,986 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
WBUR 29-Jul-16 01-Aug-16 609 4.0 47.0 32.0 C+15.0
NHJournal 19-Jul-16 21-Jul-16 1166 2.9 38.5 47.9 T+9.4
WMUR 09-Jul-16 18-Jul-16 469 4.5 37.0 37.0 0.0


New Jersey

2004 Result: 52.92% Kerry, 46.24% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.27% Obama, 41.70% McCain.

2012 Result: 58.38% Obama, 40.59% Romney.

14 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Fairleigh Dickinson 22-Jun-16 26-Jun-16 349 --- 44.0 32.0 C+12.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 22-Jun-16 26-Jun-16 363 --- 52.0 31.0 C+21.0


New Mexico

2004 Result: 49.05% Kerry, 49.84% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.91% Obama, 41.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.99% Obama, 42.84% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 76.5% wins (76,487 wins ), Trump: 23.5% wins (23,513 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 938 3.2 42.7 39.8 C+2.9


New York

2004 Result: 58.37% Kerry, 40.08% Bush.

2008 Result: 62.88% Obama, 36.03% McCain.

2012 Result: 63.35% Obama, 35.17% Romney.

29 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (99,962 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (38 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Quinnipiac 13-Jul-16 17-Jul-16 1104 3.0 45.0 33.0 C+12.0


North Carolina

2004 Result: 43.58% Kerry, 56.02% Bush.

2008 Result: 49.69% Obama, 49.36% McCain.

2012 Result: 48.35% Obama, 50.39% Romney.

15 Electoral votes.

2 polls

Clinton: 50.1% wins (50,144 wins ), Trump: 49.9% wins (49,856 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPP 05-Aug-16 07-Aug-16 830 3.4 43.0 41.0 C+2.0
SurveyUSA 30-Jul-16 02-Aug-16 400 --- 42.0 46.0 T+4.0


North Dakota

2004 Result: 35.50% Kerry, 62.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.62% Obama, 53.25% McCain.

2012 Result: 38.69% Obama, 58.32% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (277 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,723 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1537 2.5 35.6 44.2 T+8.6


Ohio

2004 Result: 48.71% Kerry, 50.81% Bush.

2008 Result: 51.50% Obama, 46.91% McCain.

2012 Result: 50.67% Obama, 47.69% Romney.

18 Electoral votes.

5 polls

Clinton: 80.9% wins (80,868 wins ), Trump: 19.1% wins (19,132 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 03-Aug-16 07-Aug-16 889 3.3 39.0 35.0 C+4.0
Quinnipiac 30-Jul-16 07-Aug-16 812 3.4 44.0 42.0 C+2.0
PPP 22-Jul-16 24-Jul-16 1334 2.7 39.0 42.0 T+3.0
Suffolk 18-Jul-16 20-Jul-16 500 4.4 42.6 38.6 C+4.0
CBS 13-Jul-16 15-Jul-16 1104 3.5 44.0 40.0 C+4.0


Oklahoma

2004 Result: 34.43% Kerry, 65.57% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.35% Obama, 65.64% McCain.

2012 Result: 33.23% Obama, 66.77% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (67 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,933 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Sooner 20-Jul-16 25-Jul-16 298 4.9 29.0 53.0 T+24.0


Oregon

2004 Result: 51.35% Kerry, 47.19% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.75% Obama, 40.40% McCain.

2012 Result: 54.24% Obama, 42.15% Romney.

7 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 76.2% wins (76,227 wins ), Trump: 23.8% wins (23,773 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Clout 09-Jul-16 13-Jul-16 701 3.7 43.1 39.7 C+3.4


Pennsylvania

2004 Result: 50.92% Kerry, 48.42% Bush.

2008 Result: 54.64% Obama, 44.29% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.97% Obama, 46.59% Romney.

20 Electoral votes.

6 polls

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
NBC/WSJ/Marist 03-Aug-16 07-Aug-16 834 3.4 45.0 36.0 C+9.0
Quinnipiac 30-Jul-16 07-Aug-16 815 3.4 48.0 39.0 C+9.0
Susquehanna 31-Jul-16 04-Aug-16 772 3.5 46.0 36.9 C+9.1
F&M 29-Jul-16 01-Aug-16 389 6.3 49.0 38.0 C+11.0
PPP 29-Jul-16 31-Jul-16 1505 2.5 45.0 42.0 C+3.0
Suffolk 25-Jul-16 27-Jul-16 500 4.4 45.8 37.2 C+8.6


Rhode Island

2004 Result: 59.42% Kerry, 38.67% Bush.

2008 Result: 63.13% Obama, 35.21% McCain.

2012 Result: 62.70% Obama, 35.24% Romney.

4 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.9% wins (99,872 wins ), Trump: 0.1% wins (128 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1067 3.0 47.3 35.7 C+11.6


South Carolina

2004 Result: 40.90% Kerry, 57.98% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.90% Obama, 53.87% McCain.

2012 Result: 44.09% Obama, 54.56% Romney.

9 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.3% wins (280 wins ), Trump: 99.7% wins (99,720 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1667 2.4 36.6 46.2 T+9.6


South Dakota

2004 Result: 38.44% Kerry, 59.91% Bush.

2008 Result: 44.75% Obama, 53.16% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.87% Obama, 57.89% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (68 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,932 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 831 3.4 32.4 46.7 T+14.3


Tennessee

2004 Result: 42.53% Kerry, 56.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 41.83% Obama, 56.90% McCain.

2012 Result: 39.08% Obama, 59.48% Romney.

11 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 2660 1.9 33.4 49.0 T+15.6


Texas

2004 Result: 38.22% Kerry, 61.09% Bush.

2008 Result: 43.68% Obama, 55.45% McCain.

2012 Result: 41.38% Obama, 57.17% Romney.

38 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 2.1% wins (2,085 wins ), Trump: 97.9% wins (97,915 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
U Texas 10-Jun-16 20-Jun-16 1200 2.8 32.0 39.0 T+7.0


Utah

2004 Result: 26.00% Kerry, 71.54% Bush.

2008 Result: 34.41% Obama, 62.58% McCain.

2012 Result: 24.75% Obama, 72.79% Romney.

6 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.1% wins (127 wins ), Trump: 99.9% wins (99,873 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Dan Jones 18-Jul-16 04-Aug-16 858 3.3 25.0 37.0 T+12.0


Vermont

2004 Result: 58.94% Kerry, 38.80% Bush.

2008 Result: 67.44% Obama, 30.44% McCain.

2012 Result: 66.57% Obama, 30.97% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ), Trump: 0.0% wins (0 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
VPR 11-Jul-16 23-Jul-16 637 3.9 39.0 17.0 C+22.0


Virginia

2004 Result: 45.48% Kerry, 53.68% Bush.

2008 Result: 52.63% Obama, 46.33% McCain.

2012 Result: 51.16% Obama, 47.28% Romney.

13 Electoral votes.

3 polls

Clinton: 98.8% wins (98,834 wins ), Trump: 1.2% wins (1,166 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
CBS 02-Aug-16 05-Aug-16 1181 3.7 49.0 37.0 C+12.0
RABA Res 26-Jul-16 27-Jul-16 655 4.0 42.0 46.0 T+4.0
Fox 09-Jul-16 12-Jul-16 601 4.0 39.0 34.0 C+5.0


Washington

2004 Result: 52.82% Kerry, 45.64% Bush.

2008 Result: 57.65% Obama, 40.48% McCain.

2012 Result: 56.16% Obama, 41.29% Romney.

12 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 99.1% wins (99,141 wins ), Trump: 0.9% wins (859 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
PPP 14-Jun-16 15-Jun-16 679 3.8 49.0 37.0 C+12.0


West Virginia

2004 Result: 43.20% Kerry, 56.06% Bush.

2008 Result: 42.59% Obama, 55.71% McCain.

2012 Result: 35.54% Obama, 62.30% Romney.

5 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 1421 2.6 27.9 55.7 T+27.8


Wisconsin

2004 Result: 49.70% Kerry, 49.32% Bush.

2008 Result: 56.22% Obama, 42.31% McCain.

2012 Result: 52.83% Obama, 45.89% Romney.

10 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 78.4% wins (78,445 wins ), Trump: 21.6% wins (21,555 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Marquette 07-Jul-16 10-Jul-16 629 4.5 44.7 40.5 C+4.1


Wyoming

2004 Result: 29.07% Kerry, 68.86% Bush.

2008 Result: 32.54% Obama, 64.78% McCain.

2012 Result: 27.82% Obama, 68.64% Romney.

3 Electoral votes.

1 poll

Clinton: 0.0% wins (0 wins ), Trump: 100.0% wins (100,000 wins ).

Start End Sample % % %
Poll date date size MOE Clinton Trump Diff
Morning Consult 01-Apr-16 30-Jun-16 831 3.4 24.5 58.5 T+34.0