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Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 348 electoral votes	Mean of 190 electoral votes

Biden is still leading in today’s analysis. Last week, the score was 359 to 179 electoral votes (on average). Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Biden receives, on average 348 to Trump’s 190 electoral votes.

The difference largely arises from Ohio, where one poll has dropped out and one new poll has been released. Now the three current polls give Trump a 51.3% to 48.7% advantage over Biden, suggesting he would win the state now with an 82% probability. Here is the polling in Ohio to date:

That 4th Marist poll with Biden up +4 dropped out and a new Emerson University poll was released with Trump up +3. Biden won every poll taken in 2018 and 2019, but the candidates have led in two polls apiece in 2020.

Florida is another interesting case. The collection of 4 current polls gives Biden a 51.6% to 48.4% lead over Trump, suggesting Biden would win the state now with a 98.8% probability. The long-term polling shows somewhat mixed results, but Biden leads in the most recent 5 polls. So far, in Florida polling, Biden has led in 13, Trump in 6 and there is one tie.

Finally, let’s look at Wisconsin. You may recall that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes. With only one current poll in hand, Biden leads Trump 57.2% to 42.8%, suggesting Biden would win a Wisconsin election now with a probability greater than 99%. The large margin is misleading in the larger contest of the total polling for the state:

There have been 31 polls testing a Biden–Trump election, all taken since March of 2019. Biden has led in 25 of the polls and Trump in six. But most of the leads are well within the margin of error. Biden has led in the last 6 consecutive polls. The net result is that Wisconsin still feels like a swing state with an edge for Biden.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

King County’s directive for mask wearing goes into effect on May 18. But if you can, please start wearing masks before that. You can help make the community safer.

As a Downtown resident, I find it somewhat amusing that “outdoors where social distancing is difficult” is district from “outdoors.” There are a lot of people outside regardless.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

Are you tired? I am. For the last few days, my neighbor’s alarm has been going off at 10:00 PM the last few days. It’s loud enough to keep me up. I knocked on her door over the weekend, but nobody came to the door. I know that she has family in the area, so she’s probably fine. Should I ask the super to check on it?

Anyway, go wash your hands right now.

The Daily Show: Tucker Carlson vs. Tucker Carlson, protest edition.

Jaboukie Young-White: Ending the ban on gay blood donors

Now This: Obama surprises teachers for national teacher appreciation week.

Jonathan Mann: Alex Jones will eat your leftist ass:

The Late Show: John Ratcliffe vs. Bear Inventor.

ТрампPlague:

• Stephen: Andrew Cuomo and The Dotard Трамп fundamentally disagree on the value of a human life
• Trevor: COVID-19 mutates & antibody tests fail
• The Late Show: Lincoln can’t hold his tongue at Трамп
• Bill Maher: Dan Savage—Love under lockdown
• Jimmy Kimmel: Perfect mother’s day, maskless Pence, busy Трамп & mom texts
• The Late Late Show: Behind the scenes of Трамп’s disinfectant idea
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard defends “Sleepy Joe” Biden!!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s new coronavirus strategy is “Live and let die”
• Wired: Disease expert compares “Contagion” to COVID-19
• Trevor: Трамп moves the goalposts & states reopen amid chaos
• Bruce W. Nelson: We must use more toilet paper (because of Трамп)
• John Oliver: Coronavirus VI—Testing
• Mika and Joe: Damning montage of Трамп’s rhetoric as coronavirus death toll rose
• J-L Cauvin: Happy Mother’s Day from The Dotard Трамп
• Trevor: Beef shortages & Jared Kushner’s botched PPE response
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s vicious attack against Jimmy
• Robert Reich: Corporations will not save us from the coronavirus.
• Seth Meyers: Rep. Ayanna Pressley calls out Трамп’s actions that left us behind the COVID-19 fight
• Bill Maher: I don’t know it for a fact…I just know it’s true (coronavirus edition)
• Late Night Storytime: The perfect president:

• The Late Show: Who put this guy in charge?
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп wants a black wall
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and his allies have a plan for protecting themselves, not you
• The New York Times: How does coronavirus antibody testing work?
• Samantha Bee: The things we should have been doing all along! Brought to you by coronavirus
• The Daily Show: America CEO Dotard Трамп announces, “Everyone Must Go!”
• Lauren Mayer: Testing, testing, testing (you lied)
• Stephen: Трамп recklessly urges a “return to work” at town hall & gambling with lives to boost his re-elect
• Trevor: Трамп won’t wear a mask and backpedals after task force backlash
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard says he is better than Lincoln
• Stephen: Трамп’s valet tests positive for COVID-19 as his campaign prepares to deploy their “death star”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп won’t wear masks & Jane’s pancake stand-off
• Seth Meyers: Not now, murder hornets
• Mark Fiore: Supply-siders for death and tax cuts
• Bruce W. Nelson: Murder Hornets, Dotard Трамп
• Trevor: A Supreme Court flush & Трамп’s nurse tiff
• Seth Meyers: The Dotard and Melanie Трамп celebrate National Day of Prayer
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп, Dennis Rodman and the murder hornets
• Lauren Meyer: “That’s the fight for the right to bowl in Georgia”:

• The Late Show: Coronavirus vaccine not pumped by deadline
• Now This: Трамп on all the things “nobody knew”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Murder hornets, beach protests & Трамп the lyin’ king
• Reflect: Trump’s train-wreck FAUX and Friends interview on Michael Flynn
• Trevor: The battle over wearing masks
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s FAUX News coronavirus town hall
• Vox: Why we’re seeing mass layoffs in the US but not the UK
• USA Singers: We will resist
• Stephen: Трамп reverses course when he realizes how popular his coronavirus task force has become

Bill Maher: New Rule–Sex monster.

Joe Biden gives an address on the economy.

Jonathan Mann: Murder hornets.

Seth Meyers: Hey! Democrats praising George W. Bush.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Here is the list of King County parks and trails that are reopening today. If you’re using one be cool. Allow social distancing to work. Still wear a mask. Wash your hands.

And if you’re going out or not, wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 359 electoral votes	Mean of 179 electoral votes

It’s been some years since you’ve seen one of these election analyses here at HA. Given that Biden and Trump will almost certainly be the nominees of their parties, and given that there are more than 300 state head-to-head polls released, it is time to start these up again.

These analyses use state head-to-head polls and mimic the electoral college process as well as following the rules of each state on how electors are awarded in the state. Most states (and D.C.) use the rule “winner takes all,” but Maine and Nebraska allocates two electors to the state victor and the rest go by the vote of each congressional district.

There are a few states that have no polling yet. These are D.C. (not a state, but it gets three electors anyway), Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. Clearly, these are not swing states. I’ve simply averaged the result from the past 4 elections and always award electors from the state that way. The results are exactly what you would expect–Illinois goes to Biden, South Dakota goes to Trump, etc. Interestingly, Nebraska’s 2nd CD just barely went for Obama in 2008, but NE-2 will be assigned to Trump in these analyses until we get polling that allows the state to be rolled into the simulations.

New polls come out almost daily, so I’ll post new analyses when I have time to collect polls, conduct the analyses, and post results.

So, how do these analyses work? I am using a statistical method called Monte Carlo analysis to, essentially, conduct mock elections in each state. The outcome of each state election is a probabilistic outcome that reflects the number of people polled recently in the state and the fraction of polled individuals saying they would vote for each candidate. Currently, I consider the last two months of polling as “current”, but that window will shrink as the pace of polling picks up. I usually do 100,000 mock elections to simulate what would happen if the election was held now. The FAQ has the details, although I need to update the FAQ for this election cycle.

Note that I do not claim these analyses predict the election outcome. Rather they reflect what we would expect for an election held now. It serves as something like the score in a basketball game. The half-time score only tells you who is leading. A lopsided score may give you an inkling of who will win, but it is just the half-time score. Watching a basketball game is far more interesting when you are allowed to know the score. Likewise, knowing the “score” in an election contest is much more interesting. In developing these analyses, I have tried to be scrupulously unbiased. If all the polls were to be flipped, Trump’s results would look like Biden’s, and Biden’s Trump’s.

Okay, so what would the outcome be if the election was held today? After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins every simulated election. Biden received (on average) 359 electoral votes to Trump’s 179 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06-May-2019 to 06-May-2020, and including polls from the preceding two months. When the purple line is above the dashed line, it means Biden is expected to win. The red and green lines provide “confidence intervals”. For example, at each time point, there was a 95% chance that any simulated election fell between the green lines. If the lower green line dips down to touch the dashed line, it means Trump would have a 2.5% chance of winning.

Here is a plot showing the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] that resulted from the 100,000 simulated elections for the analysis done today (essentially, a vertical slice from the previous graph at today’s date):

[There is much more, including state-by-state analyses below the fold….]

[Read more…]

I don’t get the people who are rushing to reopen. The economy is awful and nobody is happy staying in. But suing to infect more of your constituents is just garbage. Like more death is good for the economy, somehow. Like if your employees all get sick and some die it’s a goo day at work. Like going to a restaurant or a bowling alley now would even be reasonable. Ugh.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

92 people in Washington dead of COVID-19 stinks. And yet it marks our first week down to double digits. Social distancing and hand washing and mask wearing have made a difference. It’s tougher to quantify how many people are still around because we did those things. But they are because you did.

So keep it up. Go wash your hands right now.

Trevor: Sen. Tammy Duckworth on supporting first responders

Lauren Mayer: We’d like to thank you, Mitch McConnell.

Bill Maher: Eric Holder on the 2020 elections

Samantha Bee: Why we need to save the Postal Service.

Vox: How voting by mail could save the US election.

ТрампPlague:

• SNL: Dr. Anthony Fauci cold open
• Trevor: The world sees signs of light at the end of the corona tunnel
• Stephen: Sen. Schumer, “I would call Dr. Birx & Dr. Fauci before Congress, without Трамп hovering over them
• Stephen: Sen. Schumer, “No PR act” would prevent Трамп from adding his name to future stimulus checks
• Mark Fiore: Dr. Dotard J. Трамп, MD
• Bill Maher: Different shit, same day
• John Di Domenico: Трамп’s response to fake news disinfectant injection
• The Late Show: Surfin’ MIA
• J-L Cauvin: No one works harder than Трамп!!
• Bruce W. Nelson: Raleigh’s at the rally:

• Jimmy Kimmel: What Трамп was doing during COVID-19 warnings
• The Daily Show: Remember when Трамп said coronavirus would disappear in April?
• NY Times: Social distancing is hard. This astronaut has some advice.
• Bruce W. Nelson: Hey, you with the sexy mask!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп ignored coronavirus warnings & Pence refused to wear a mask
• SNL: Stuck in the house
• Stephen: You’re doing amazing, Mr. President. See, sarcasm does work!
• Lars von Retriever: Трамп’s Thunderstruck
• Trevor: Coronavirus ravages the food supply chain
• Randy Rainbow: A spoonful of Clorox:

• The Late Show: Trump’s idea to inject disinfectant inspires new cleaning products
• Stephen: Jared Kushner declares Трамп’s coronavirus decision-making “a great success story”
• Trevor: Neighboring in the time of coronavirus
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп NOT the dope of the day!
• SNL: Message from MI Gov. Whitmer
• Bill Maher: Immunity booster
• The Daily Show: BIG NEWS—Трамп reveals ingenious 4-step plan to wipe out coronavirus
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard goes platinum!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп sinks in polls, claims disinfectant comments were sarcastic
• Stephen: Трамп is watching, and tweeting about, “This stupid show”
• John Di Domenico: Trump BLASTS everyone over the corona virus “King Covid 45”:

• Lauren Mayer: I can’t remember what day it ss
• Vox: How coronavirus charts can mislead us
• Robert Reich: From Ukraine to coronavirus—Trump’s abuse of power continues, featuring Robert Reich
• Mother Jones: Trump’s 100 days of deadly coronavirus denial
• Now This: Bill Gates explains why U.S. COVID-19 testing is “bogus”
• Trevor: Immunity in Sweden & Трамп ignored warnings
• Stephen: Трамп doesn’t talk like a guy who knows what he’s talking about
• J-L Cauvin: Trump Tuesdays—Episode 1
• Seth Meyers: Kushner and Трамп call coronavirus response “success story” and “great job”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s disinfectant debacle
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп’s COVID cures:

• Trevor: The U.S. hits one million cases of coronavirus
• Stephen: Sen. Amy Klobuchar & Mayor Pete Buttigieg comment On Трамп’s move to keep meat plants open
• Wired: Dr. Seema Yasmin on the 5 biggest covid-19 mistakes to avoid as we try to flatten the curve
• SNL Weekend Update: Трамп suggests injecting disinfectant
• Trevor: Трамп’s bleach suggestion—sarcasm?
• Seth Meyers: White House schedules, cancels and then reschedules coronavirus press briefing
• The Daily Show: Trump’s best words–coronavirus briefing edition
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard wishes the First Third Lady a happy birthday
• Stephen: Burger enthusiast The Dotard Трамп orders America’s meat plants to stay open
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп blames & complains and celebrities after quarantine

Stephen: How do Democrats win in the midwest? Sen. Amy Klobuchar & Mayor Pete Buttigieg weigh in.

Bill Maher: 24 things you don’t know about Joe Biden.

Trevor: PPP loans sapped by big businesses.

Samantha Bee: Trying to keep up with Kamala Harris

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Can’t wait to eat food processed by COVID-19 positive employees. Mmmm.

Obviously the safety of the workers is the most important thing. 56 is a lot of cases and if work isn’t safe for them it shouldn’t happen.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

I forgot who, but someone said that shopping online at Pike Place Market was easy. It was not. At least for me. Each store had its own website or you had to call. Some places you still had to go in to. Still, it was good to have much of it done ahead of time.

Well it finally happened: My hair is ridiculous. Can’t part it. Can’t slick it back. Just a big lump on my head. Swooping. I have had it long before, but this intermediate stuff is probably going to last a while. So I am sorry coworkers, friends and family. You’re stuck looking at this on Zoom for a while.

Anyway, everyone wash your hands right now.

Late Night Storytelling: The first annual Democratic Candidate Pageant.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo has some numbers to share with #MoscowMitch.

Bill Maher chats with Rep. Nancy Pelosi.

Jonathan Mann: Hello, my name is David Brooks.

SNL: Earth Day sketches.

Buzzfeed: Eight things you can do about climate change now.

ТрампPlague:

• The Late Show: Трамп’s flipbook cartoon pig goes off the deep end
• Jimmy Kimmel: Another quarantine monologue
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard is concerned for Kim Jong Un’s health
• The Daily Show: Dot Трамп, The Science-ish Guy on disinfectant injections
• Jimmy Fallon: Dr. Jane Goodall on how disrespect for nature fueled the coronavirus pandemic
• Stephen: Трамп, you’re going to have to do the unthinkable—YOUR JOB!
• Rachel Maddow: Drug pusher Трамп and other coronavirus news
• Trevor: Трамп must think chaos is an essential service
• Chris Hayes: Трамп Administration forces out top vaccine doctor amid pandemic
• Vox: What face masks actually do against coronavirus
• The Daily Show: Remembering Трамп’s somber tone
• Stephen: Las Vegas Mayor rolls the dice on reopening, but Anderson Cooper is having none of it
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard advises using diet Fresca to fight covid
• The Трампs celebrate Earth Day! #BeBuried
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s ratings, Kim Jong Un’s health & Dr. Zaius on COVID-19
• The Late Show: Anderson Cooper struggles with Las Vegas Mayor’s logic
• Roy Zimmerman: The Liar Tweets Tonight:

• Samantha Bee: Why we need to shut down the idea of reopening America
• Stephen: Bill Gates—Global innovation is the key to achieving a return to normal
• Stephen: Bill Gates—We could see early results from coronavirus vaccine trials this summer
• Trevor: Governors ease restrictions & Трамп shuts out immigrants
• The Bulwark: February 7 changed everything….
• The late Show: The grim reaper endorses Lt. Governor Dan Patrick
• James Corden: Vice President Joe Biden questions Трамп’s COVID response
• Robert Reich: Coronavirus and the height of corporate welfare
• Stephen: Трамп indulges his penchant for chanting mobs by tweeting encouragement to lockdown protesters
• John Oliver: Coronavirus V
• The Daily Show: This is what it’s about
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is the ventilator king
• You can see the moment when Dr. Birx loses her soul at a Трамп “briefing”
• The Late Show: Meet the former dog breeder in charge of coronavirus response at HHS
• Mark Fiore: Liberty alert!
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп & Vegas mayor compete for who’s crazier
• The science of quarantine hair roots
• Stephen: Трамп’s immigration bombshell came, as always, via tweet
• Bruce W. Nelson: STFU (A song of sage advice)
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп never heard of hydroxychloroquine
• Trevor: Gov. Andrew Cuomo on meeting Трамп and reopening New York
• John Di Domenico: Трамп Money, Sarah Hester Ross wants her cash now!
• The Daily Show: The Daily Show FAUXsplains coronavirus
• Gov. Cuomo to anti-lockdown protesters: “What’s worse than death?”
• Stephen: Mitch McConnell’s “Screw the states” plan riles lawmakers from both parties
• Francesca Fiorentini: How COVID-19 deniers are ALSO a virus:

• Chris Hayes: Air pollution drops around the world amid coronavirus lockdowns
• The Late Show: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ mask fail
• Sky News: Excess deaths suggest a higher mortality rate from coronavirus than official figures
• Jordan Klepper beefs up to brave the pandemic
• Mother Jones: Obama’s 2010 oil spill response vs. Трамп’s 2020 coronavirus response
• Samantha Bee: Our hospital workers need PPE…STAT!
• Reflect: Трамп gets caught lying about encouraging bleach injections
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп encourages stay at home protests
• Stephen and Trevor: Трамп’s response to coronavirus is exposing his lack of leadership
• The Daily Show: Dotard Трамп the science-ish guy explains hydroxychloroquine
• J-L Cauvin gets ripped by Трамп
• The Late Show: Blowing it out of proportion

Robert Reich: The solutions to the climate crisis no one is talking about.

Bill Maher: New Rule—America’s wet markets.

@Winlar says, “Fuck Twitter”.

James Corden: Vice President Joe Biden is finalizing his 2020 run

Roll Call: A masked edition of Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I have not been exercising nearly enough in the stay at home times. So I tried going for a walk in the morning. It was fine. Fewer people are out at 7:00 and I hopped right in the shower after the walk was over. Um, but I forgot to do this post until a couple minutes before work started. So here’s a lunch break post instead of a morning one.

Please wash your hands right now.

I am glad to see that Governor Inslee has put forward a path to reopening the state and that it is very gradual. Until there’s a vaccine or much more widespread testing, we’re not going to be able to do a lot of things. I am not sure how much I would want to do elective surgery right now, but I guess if people are taking precautions it’s probably fine? Maybe if you’re in pain or there are down the road consequences it changes the equation.

In any case wash your hands right now.