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Well, of course, she could win. Shit happens. Scandals. Wars. Terrorist attacks. Assassinations. But barring some paradigm-shifting calamity crushing Barack Obama’s presidential aspirations (or the man himself), Hillary Clinton just can’t win the Democratic nomination.

I know the Clinton fans at DL were cheered by her 9-point victory in Pennsylvania last night, but she can’t win. She can’t catch Obama in the pledged delegate count, and there is absolutely no indication that the remaining superdelegates will sharply break her way, nor any reason that they should. Two weeks from now, when the vote in North Carolina and Indiana is counted, Clinton will be further behind Obama in the delegate race than she was the morning before her big “victory” in Pennsylvania.

I’ve got nothing against Clinton. I like her. I’d enthusiastically support her should she win the nomination. But she can’t.

So given reality, and given the need for Democrats to unite together behind a nominee sometime before the end of August, I’d really like the Hillary boosters here on HA to explain to me why the superdelegates shouldn’t just come out and do their job, and decide this thing once and for all for Obama?

Safeco has been a Seattle corporate icon since… well… almost since Seattle has had corporate icons. But no more:

Just before 10PM last night, on the final day of Pledge Week, a $100 contribution came in, just sliding the needle past our $6,000 target. A heartfelt thanks to all 119 contributors for your generosity and support.

When I announced the milestone at Drinking Liberally, a fellow blogger exclaimed that they thought I was smoking crack to set such an ambitious target, to which I replied that I wasn’t afraid to fail. Nothing ventured nothing gained, and all that. But I guess I also had faith that the HA community had my back. And you did. 119 donors contributed $6,015 dollars, at an average of over $50.00 per donation, a truly amazing show of support, and while some of the righties may have trouble understanding the sentiment, the simple fact that so many of my readers were willing to show their appreciation in such a generous manner is at least as gratifying as the money itself.

Of course, we didn’t quite reach our 150 donor target, so I’m going to leave up the pledge bar at the top of the right column a little while longer for those of you who still want to chip in five or ten bucks, but I’m done with the fundraising appeals for now. Your contributions have made it possible for me to continue my work improving and expanding HA, and that’s exactly what I’m going to get back to doing after a good night’s sleep. A lot of great new features are coming your way, and I can’t wait to get them out the door.

Again, thank you all for your generous support, and for making HA a regular part of your daily routine.

To the well-dressed but drunk-as-a-skunk Clinton supporter at the Montlake Ale House on Tuesday night:

Probably not a good idea to drunkenly berate people for not supporting you candidate. When you ask someone what they think is important in the election, and they answer “change,” it’s best not to treat that answer as an attack on your candidate. It implies that you know your candidate isn’t for “change,” which is bad because this is a change election. (At least, that’s what the dozens of talking heads have been saying.)

Personally, I’m mostly happy with either one. While I lean towards Obama, I’m no super fan, and I’m certainly not going to get hammered and yell at strangers at the bar for not supporting him.

I don’t think this extended contest is hurting the party, but it seems to be doing a number on the combatants.

Of course, the big news coming out of Pennsylvania tonight is that the Philadelphia Flyers just beat the Washington Capitals 3-2 in overtime, to take game seven, and win their series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  And oh yeah, Hillary Clinton is projected to beat Barack Obama in the primary.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. We meet at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E, although some of us will show up a little early for dinner.

Tonight we’ll raise a stein to the earth, celebrate Bush’s great achievment, toast (and maybe roast) Will, and…um, maybe watch election returns from that one state back east…oh, what’s its name….

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally . Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

I had no idea what I was getting into when I first started blogging four years ago next month. What started as an exercise in forcing myself to write every day, has morphed into an obsession that can produce a half-dozen posts every 24 hours. And while I allowed myself to dream that I might someday earn an audience of a few hundred, I never imagined that thousands of readers would eventually make HA a part of their daily routines.

There is a ton of work and several tons more of pressure in keeping HA relevant, informative and entertaining, and there is absolutely no way I could have continued at this pace without the generous and talented help of my co-bloggers. And over the past year I have particularly come to rely on the increasingly prolific contributions of Will Kelley-Kamp both in keeping HA fresh, and in giving me the occasional breather that I so desperately need.

That is why I am both saddened and proud to announce that Will will be stepping back from HA, at least through November, to take a position as campaign manager for state Rep. Geoff Simpson. Will has more than earned this opportunity, and I have no doubt that he will perform his duties with flying colors. He will retain his blogging privileges here at HA, but neither the time nor the political constraints of a full-time political campaign will permit him to post with much if any frequency.

But as long as we’re saying goodbye to an HA regular, if only temporarily, I’d like to take this opportunity to welcome a new co-blogger to the HA stables, Jon DeVore. Jon’s original blog, Columbian Watch, was one of the first political blogs I read on a regular basis (along with Carl’s famously concise Washington State Political Report), and I have long been a fan of his writing. Some of you may remember him as Stilwell, under which name he wrote for a while at NW Progressive Institute. I look forward to his contributions.

Will is incredibly enthusiastic about his new job, not the least which because, unlike blogging, it actually pays. Likewise, I know that there have been some of you in the comment threads who have suggested that I should do the responsible thing and get a real job myself, rather than asking my readers for support. Of course I could, and I’d probably make a pretty penny in the process, but my job here is not done. This is perhaps the most important election year in my lifetime since 1968, and we all know how well that one turned out for the nation. So I have chosen to take what little opportunity I have to make difference, and continue to attempt to do exactly that.

Of course, on this, the final day of my annual Pledge Week, please remember that I can’t keep this up forever. My ability to grow and expand HA to the point where it can eventually earn enough money to support me, relies for the moment on your continued support. Help support local progressive media. Please give today.

It’s official. President George W. Bush has united the American people, who have collectively declared him: Worst. President. Ever.

President Bush has set a record he’d presumably prefer to avoid: the highest disapproval rating of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll.

In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, 28% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing; 69% disapprove. The approval rating matches the low point of his presidency, and the disapproval sets a new high for any president since Franklin Roosevelt.

The previous record of 67% was reached by Harry Truman in January 1952, when the United States was enmeshed in the Korean War.

The title comes at the end of a long downhill slide from having the record highest approval rating in September, 2001. Bush earned that record by ignoring a daily presidential briefing dated 6 August 2001 titled, “Bin Laden determined to strike in US.” (Among other things, the memo pointed out, “…FBI information since that time indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for hijackings or other types of attacks, including recent surveillance of federal buildings in New York.”)

Besides the USA Today/Gallup poll, there was an ARG poll released today and a Rasmussen poll released Sunday that included presidential approval.

The ARG poll gave Bush 22% approval and 72% disapproval. This isn’t the worst Bush has done in the ARG poll…in February, his approval was a mere 19% and his disapproval was an astounding 77%. But, then, ARG presidential approvals polls seem to be biased against Bush, and ARG, in general, has something of a reputation for quirky (i.e. highly variable) results.

The Rasmussen approval poll (which is now taken weekly instead of daily) has Bush’s approval at 34% and disapproval at 64%. The Rasmussen presidential approval polls have always been biased in favor of Bush relative to other major pollsters (but consistently and reliably so). We can compare Sunday’s results with past performance in the Rasmussen poll. When the April polls are averaged at the end of the month, this is likely to be Bush’s worst performance to date–easily beating the 36% approval and 61% disapproval from last May. Rasmussen points out:

Sometimes it is difficult to keep the ratings in perspective. In February 2005, at the beginning of the President’s second term, the number who Strongly Approved was roughly equal to the number who Strongly Disapproved. Now, three years later, just 13% Strongly Approve while more than three times as many—45%–Strongly Disapprove.

Aggregates of multiple polls (e.g. Prof. PollKatz or Pollster.com) also show Bush at the lowest point of his presidency.

So…we have a lame duck Worst. President. Ever. But consider this: at this point in the second term, Ronald Reagan was hovering around 50% approval and Bill Clinton’s approval was in the low 60%. It isn’t just a “lame duck” effect.

Does Bush’s pathetic approval/disapproval matter? From Rasmussen:

In March, as the President’s Approval Rating slipped, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats remained near the highest levels ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports.

Yeah…I guess it does a little. Besides needlessly sending our soldiers to their death and running up enormous debt for an illegal war that was fraudulently foisted upon the American people, besides the erosion of our civil liberties, the invasion of our privacy, and the approval of torture contrary to our treaties, in addition to causing massive (and, quite possibly, permanent) damage to our reputation abroad, it looks like the Bush administration has also made it downright distasteful (or, perhaps, embarrassing) to be a Republican.

So how is founder Denis Hayes choosing to celebrate this 38th Earth Day? By endorsing Darcy Burner:

When it comes to the environment, Darcy gets it! But more than that, she gets what needs to be done, and knows how to get there. She will represent more than merely a vote we can count on and a voice on these issues that are important to each of us – she will take on the tough political battles we need to fight if we are to bring our planet back into balance. She is a true environmentalist.

Read the whole thing…

Speaking before a crowd of about a hundred Democrats at a fundraiser yesterday, U.S. Rep. Norm Dicks (WA-06) reportedly said that if Hillary Clinton wins “big” in today’s Pennsylvania primary, he believes the nominating contest will go all the way to the convention, but… if she does not win big — and given the current polling he has no expectation that she will — there would be no way the math could work for her, and he’d flip his endorsement to Barack Obama in order to help end the contest sooner rather than later.

Dicks did not provide details, but he left the impression with attendees that he has discussed this scenario with several of his fellow Congressional superdelegates, and that he is alone in neither his analysis nor his intentions.

So think of Dicks as the canary in the coal mine of the Clinton campaign; if he flips, other superdelegates will likely flip with him. And that would signal the end of Clinton’s presidential ambitions.

I refuse to take sides in the Senate primary in Oregon, but I just love Steve Novick’s ads. Especially this, and this. (I don’t know if they work, but they sure work for me.)

For those of you who read HA, maybe comment from time to time, this blogging thing may look simple. Write up a few posts, and then go on with your day. Certainly, some of us (er, me) just post somewhat rarely, and expect to stay at our day jobs.

Goldy expects to actually make a living from writing here, and as a fan of the blog who wants to see the quality stay high, I certainly appreciate that. As a friend of Goldy’s, I think it’s nuts: Someone with his skills in technology and knowledge in politics should by rights make a lot more money than he does.

But Goldy keeps on chugging here. For a lot less than a decent political operative makes, he’s helped more than just about anyone locally outside of the Burner campaign push the Responsible Plan into the public discourse. He has stood up to the Chinese importers of tainted pet food, David Irons, and the shameless Republican hacks pushing their lies after the 2004 election. He’s done it all with well researched, informative, and most importantly, fun posts.

Writing a compelling blog, even one with modest readership compared to many of the large national blogs, requires a lot of work. Even for Goldy, who has one of the most tolerant comment policies, there is a good deal of moderation. The new look that you see is the result of a lot of late night coding. The research that goes into his posts takes a lot of time.

So, please, Goldy only has one fundraiser per year. If you care about a quality alternative to the mainstream local media (or just if you enjoy his critiques) give some scratch. If you care about the stories he’s helped push, please give a bit. If you’ve enjoyed discussions in the comment threads (and surely someone has) consider giving a few bucks.

Also, for the long term, advertising may be a better way to go, especially if you’ve got a company or a cause you’d like to promote.

The most striking aspect of Dino Rossi’s transportation “plan” (you know, other than its complete and utter bullshittiness), is its almost total focus on road-building at the expense of expanded transit options. In fact the only nod toward transit in the entire plan is Rossi’s proposal to divert Sound Transit money toward building additional miles of HOV lanes on 405 and elsewhere on the Eastside.

But even that’s a total crock of shit, for even if Rossi could get around the thorny constitutional constraints that gives a governor zero control over local tax dollars (and he can’t), at the same time he’s proposing building more HOV lanes, he’s also proposing opening these lanes up to single occupancy traffic throughout most of day, which in a region fast approaching 24-hour rush hour makes the HOV designation virtually meaningless.

So in essence, Rossi proposes taking money Sound Transit has socked away for building light rail to Bellevue, and spending it instead on building more general purpose freeway lanes — he just calls them “HOV” lanes and hopes voters and reporters won’t notice. Well, we did.