I got the flu shot last week. Was into and out of the pharmacy faster than it has ever been before. And now I will be less likely to catch or pass on another deadly virus. Still have to deal with COVID-19.
So wash your hands right now.
by Carl Ballard — ,
by Darryl — ,
Trevor: No officers indicted for the shooting of Breonna Taylor.
Conan reads a Christmas tale for 2020
WaPo: The origins of policing in America.
Biden-Harris 2020:
Liberal Viewer: FAUX News Anchor Trace Gallagher fails live math and geography tests within 3 minutes.
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.
The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Treasonweasels and Despot Wannabes:
Conan: QAnon News Break—Santa Claus edition
Americans for Decency: Lying liars lie—Ted Snooze, Inc.
Vox: How US abortion policy targets the poor.
RIP RBG:
Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 1
Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 2
The ТрампPlague:
Dulcé Sloan: What is the monetary cost of police brutality? Billions.
Conan: Get a healthy dose of reality with Realitrex
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Carl Ballard — ,
I am very uncomfortable with Pac 12 football starting again. The expanded testing is good, but geez so many of the programs that have started playing games have met with pretty serious problems. I can’t imagine there not being a major outbreak in one, and probably several, of the teams.
I certainly don’t want to blame individual players who want to play. To lose a whole year is awful. But it’s got to be up to governments and institutions to step in for public health.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
by Darryl — ,
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Some 40 new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis was posted last Friday. Many of the new polls have been taken partially or fully after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an event that could possibly change the dynamics of the Presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. If so, it has not affected the expected outcome of a (hypothetical) election held now.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 380 to Trump’s 158 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
Last week’s analysis gave Biden 389 and Trump 149 electoral votes (on average) so, for the moment, Biden has stopped gaining electors, although it is too early to say that Trump has the momentum going forward. With newly released polls, Trump made modest gains in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (13% to 39% probability of winning that district’s elector) and Texas (22% to 48% probability of winning the state). He made smaller gains in Georgia (12% to 15%), North Carolina (23% to 29%) and South Carolina (92% to 96%). At the same time, Trump lost modest ground in Alabama (100% to 77%) and Louisiana (100% to 87%) and lost a bit of ground in Iowa (66% to 63%).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
The long term trend in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 23-Sep-2019 to 23-Sep-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (when possible…see the FAQ).
by Carl Ballard — ,
The judicial norms breaking is leading nowhere good. But unilateral norms breaking seems bad too. So here is my proposal if the Republicans nominate and approve a Justice to replace RBG and Democrats get a trifecta.
First off, do the maximum judicial stuff. Add 100 seats to the Supreme Court. Strip the lower courts of power, replace them with a different system, and fill that with liberal judges. The whole 9 yards.
While this is happening, propose an amendment to the Constitution. Many states have commissions or other means of making judicial appointments fair. Pick the best one and adopt it. It also fires all judges except for cases they are working on. If Republicans want a cease fire, they can pass the amendment, if not at least there will be a liberal court for a while.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
by Carl Ballard — ,
by Darryl — ,
act.tv: RFK’s ripple of hope still matters today.
Eleven Films: Unite against the violence.
Biden-Harris 2020:
Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff on children being tortured inside America’s immigration detention centers.
Now This: Women in ICE custody say they were subjected to unwanted hysterectomies
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.
RIP RBG:
WaPo: Understanding WeChat, the essential Chinese social media app.
Vice News: This Texas County is taking the drive-thru model for voting.
Solana Rice and Jeremie Greer: Racism is profitable
The Dotard Трамп and Other Murderous Despot Wannabes:
Courtney Jaye: Ted has no balls
Vox: What long voting lines in the US really mean
ТрампPlague:
BuzzFeed: How the stock market works in under 8 minutes
Naomi Ekperigin (Full Frontal): From memes to movement—Is Instagram activism getting us anywhere?
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
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My previous analysis was before the conventions. Now, roughly a month after the conventions, any movement from the conventions should become apparent.
To assess an election held today, we simulate 100,000 elections using the past month of polls as “current” and only using older polls if there are no current polls. From that exercise, Joe Biden won all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 389 to Donald Trump’s 149 electoral votes, a modest improvement for Biden from the 378 to 160 electoral vote lead he had at the end of July. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Sep 2019 to 18 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
Clearly, Biden has the lead and the momentum at this point in the election season, with his expected electoral vote total tending to climb since January. Details for the the most recent simulation is found below the fold.
by Carl Ballard — ,
by Carl Ballard — ,
Are you surviving the smoke? It’s pretty gross. I live in the urban core, and according to Google Maps the farthest building I could see from my window is less than half a mile. And even that is an improvement from earlier in the week.
If you have to work outside, or go outside for any reason, I feel for you. Gross, gross, gross.
And, you still have to wash your hands. So wash your hands right now.
by Carl Ballard — ,
by Darryl — ,
Bill Maher: Side with teacher.
Roy Zimmerman: : I approve this message.
Biden—Harris 2020:
Samantha Bee: Why police aren’t protecting our kids in school.
Vox: How America can leave fossil fuels behind, in one chart
Seth Meyers: Jane Fonda on Nixon ordering her arrest and civil disobedience
The Dotard Трамп and Other Slackers, Prevaricators and Incompetents:
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Roy Zimmerman: Defenders of Marriage (performed in 2017).
Jimmy Dore: Mitt Romney really likes eggs!
ТрампPlague:
Trevor: Jane Fonda—Civil disobedience in the name of climate change.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Carl Ballard — ,
Another day, another threat from Amazon. I don’t know if it’s pandemic, or otherwise business related. Or trying to scare Seattle once again. The article mentions that they are moving some things to Redmond, a city with a head tax.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
by Carl Ballard — ,
by Darryl — ,
Samantha Bee: How marginalizing women’s health created a market for pseudoscience products.
Biden—Harris 2020:
Jimmy Dore: Putin takes credit for defeating Kennedy dynasty!
The Dotard Трамп and Other Pimps, Grifters, and Corrupt Bastards:
Now This: Pastor speaks out on voter suppression in the Hispanic community
Racism in America
Robert Reich: How Big Money corrupts our politics (and how to fix it).
ТрампPlague:
The New Yorker: Greenland thrives after Трамп tried to buy the island
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.