For God’s sake, don’t go to a big Thanksgiving. Don’t go outside of your bubble. Don’t infect your family or friends. If you have plans, please call the people who you were going to have Thanksgiving with and cancel. Let’s not get COVID-19 this Thanksgiving or any other upcoming holiday.
Also, wash your hands right now.
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Robert Reich: Georgia runoffs—How you can help flip the Senate
Vox: The 126-year fight to change Mississippi’s Confederate flag
President Elect Joe Biden and VP Elect Kamala Harris:
Stephen: Better know a runoff—Georgia!
Jimmy Kimmel does Barack Obama
The Dotard Трамп and Other Sore Losers, Bad Liars, and SAD Fascists:
Wired: Is the YouTube algorithm controlling us? I try to find out
Bruce W. Nelson: Welcome back America!
John Oliver tells 2020 to “get fucked!”
The Week in ТрампPlague:
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Robert Reich: The real story behind skyrocketing student debt
Jonathan Mann: Socialism or barbarism
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I know it’s hardly news, but I got my first COVID-19 test the other day.
I have been making a ton of calls for work. And my leave a voice mail voice is a bit deeper than my regular talking voice. At the end of a couple days, I was talking very raspy and had a bit of a frog in my throat. I assumed it was that and not COVID-19, but I wanted to know for sure.
I live in the urban core, so my best option was at King County Public Health. I took a late lunch, and walked there. It’s walk-in only. The line was social distanced — so it’s a bit tough to gage — but it wrapped around the block. It took a bit under an hour from getting there around 2:00 to getting the pipe cleaner up my nose.
Pipe cleaner nose is not a pleasant experience, but it was quickly done. When I came out bent, the doctor told me I had an oddly shaped nasal cavity.
The next day, I got a text directing me to their website. And I am covid free.
Still, wash your hands right now.
Congratulations to the 737 Max. Now to start getting out of the mothballs, and improve training. I suppose the pandemic is probably the best time to have people fly them. Notably without me in one. Good luck pilots and passengers.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
I hate it. But I definitely agree with Governor Inslee’s shut down. It is going to be tough, but hopefully it stops the virus. I’m not optimistic unless there’s a strategy better coordinated with the rest of the country.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
James Corden: Sen. Cory Booker’s wingman is President-elect Biden
The Late Show: Mitch McConnell learns a lesson about lying
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
We have President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris:
Keith Olbermann: Pompeo was joking? Wasn’t joking? I don’t care. Cut off red state funding.
Our Cartoon President: “America, my fucked home” & new closing song
Matt Buechele: Making liberals mad
The Dotard Трамп and Other Sore Losers, Grifters, and Reality Deniers:
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
The Daily Show: The GOP needs your vote in the lawful, fraudulent, official, rigged Georgia runoff elections
Superspreading the ТрампPlague:
Vox: Weed was the real winner of the 2020 election
Conan: Miss political texts? Sign up for Andy’s list
Roy Zimmerman: Thanks for the support
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I agree with Governor Inslee. Thanksgiving, and probably Christmas, are going to have to be online only this year. It absolutely stinks. It’s the price we’re paying for not locking down fully, and for opening up before we should have. It’s also the collective manifestation of individual choices.
So, please wear a mask. Social distance. Avoid gathering. And wash your hands right now.
Still hyped about President Elect Biden. I would prefer a Democratic Senate. But overall still fuck yeah.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now.
Stephen answers your kids’ most pressing election questions!
Jonathan Mann: The bad time line
Stephen with Larry Wilmore: Inspired by the political actions of young people
Election 2020:
The Daily Show: The most scandal-plagued Presidency ever—A look back
Bill Maher: Tristan Harris on social media’s influence on U.S. elections
Roll Calls: Election week Congressional hits and misses of the week
The Dotard Трамп and Other Whiners, Losers, Thieves, and Liars:
Taína Asili: Here we come.
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
ТрампPlague Superspreading:
Lauren Mayer: : It could be worse!
Bruce W. Nelson: The Radical Right.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Fuck yeah.
How were the election results for you? I think Biden is going to squeak out a victory but it’s not great that it’s too close to call. In Washington, it’s good. Inslee won as expected. The legislature is secure. Not sure if that means actually progressive legislation.
In fine but not my preferred candidate news, the 10th Congressional District and Lieutenant Governor the more conservative Democrat won the race between2 Democrats. The sex ed initiative is passing easily. King County charter amendments are going for police reform.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
It has been awhile since I’ve done one of these. Leave your thoughts on the election in the comment thread!
5:07: Four years ago on election night my house lost power for a few hours. Today, a bit after 2pm, I lost power for a few hours. I hope that isn’t a bad omen!
5:24: Ahhhh…finally got to pour myself a beer!
5:31: MSNBC: “Breaking news…Polls close in Arkansas…here’s what we can tell you…It is too close to call” Not really “breaking” news as much as prematurely ejected news.
5:41: Texas is interesting, but way too early. Florida isn’t looking good, but way too early to tell.
I am having flashbacks of 2018 when my twitter feed was full of people hysterically clutching their pearls that the blue wave hadn't materialized around this time. But when all the votes were counted …
Everyone said be patient. We knew it could come down to Pa. #ComeOnMan
— digby (@digby56) November 4, 2020
6:30: The first Senate seat to flip…Hickenlooper in Colorado.
He spent 4 years golfing. And people are still voting for him. I will never understand it
— Sarah Cooper (@sarahcpr) November 4, 2020
Since yesterday’s analysis, about 20 new polls have come out. The results have not changed much. This is my final analysis of the for the Senate races.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99804 times, there were 196 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 0 times. This analysis suggests that Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate in 2021.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
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It is election day! I’ve added a couple dozen more polls since The yesterday analysis, but the results have not changed much. Yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump with an average of 362 to 176 electoral votes.
Today, I tightened up the “current poll” window to 10 days. This has the effect of adding uncertainty in under-polled states like Washington and Oregon. But doing this should better capture late trends in hotly contested states.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 360 to Trump’s 178 electoral votes. The election is today and this model predicts Biden will win with near certainty. The most likely outcome (14.6% probability) is 351 electoral votes. Biden’s worst outcome in the simulated elections was 308 electoral votes, suggesting that Biden has almost no chance of an outcome below 308 votes. The highest electoral vote total was 418.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
The trajectory of this race over the past year can be seen from a series of elections simulated every week including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
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There have been 131 new polls released since the previous analysis just 3 days ago in the race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The sheer volume of polls has let me tighten the “current poll” window to polls in the past two weeks. This has resulted in the race tightening a bit. Three days ago (with a 3-week “current poll” window, Biden averaged 373 electoral votes.
Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Biden wins all 100,000 elections and receives (on average) 362 to Trump’s 176 electoral votes. In other words, Biden would almost certainly win an election held today. We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow….
What are the big shifts over the last three days? In Georgia, there are 13 polls total that are split six with Trump ahead, six with Biden in the lead, and one tie. Biden’s chances have dropped slightly from a 94% probability of winning three days ago to a 77 percent chance of winning the state today. In Iowa, five new polls were released and five aged-out for nine polls total. Biden leads in four and Trump in four with one tie. The net result is that Biden’s slight lead (56% probability of winning) has moved to Trump leading (53% probability of winning today). Basically, Iowa is a toss-up.
We lost one of the two polls in Nebraska’s second congressional district, so Biden’s chances have slipped from a 98% chance to a 70% chance of winning. This is, essentially, a situation of too little polling.
North Carolina is the state everyone is talking about. And there is lots of polling. I have 27 current polls, with six new polls added and a loss of 14 older polls. Biden leads in 18 of the polls and Trump leads in seven polls; there are two ties. These shifts in polls have caused Biden to slip slightly from a 99% chance of winning to an 87% chance of winning. Finally, in Texas we have 11 current polls, with 5 new ones and six old ones dropping out. Trump leads in seven polls and Biden in three, with one tie. The net result is Trump’s chances have gone up again from 59% probability of winning to a 76% probability of winning.
There are some states that went for Trump in 2016 but the analysis gives Biden a solid lead, including Arizona (96% probability of winning), Florida (>99.9% probability of winning), Michigan (>99.9% probability), Pennsylvaina (>99.9% probability) and Wisconsin (>99.9% probability).
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated weekly for the past year, always including polls from the preceding two weeks (FAQ).
For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
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