I’ll be on KUOW’s The Conversation this afternoon at about 1:20PM for our weekly “Beat the Press” segment. Topics of discussion will include those dangerous harmless Arab European terrorists tourists planning to blow up take snapshots of the WA state ferries, and Hillary Clinton’s big win loss in the Indiana primary.
And tomorrow morning I’ll be filling in for Dave Ross during the final two hours of his show, 10AM to noon on 710-KIRO.
The one and only bright spot for House Republicans of late has been the ongoing primary battle between Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. NRCC chair Tom Cole had fantasized out loud about a “death fight” between Obama and Clinton that would tear the Democrats down, sweep Sen. John McCain into the White House, and with him produce the kind of presidential coattails that could carry House Republicans to victory in November.
But with even official Republican spokesman Tim Russert declaring Obama the presumptive nominee after Clinton’s disappointing showing in North Carolina and Indiana, Cole’s daydream is fading fast, and his caucus is beginning to wake up to the daunting challenges they face this November.
On Monday, former Speaker Newt Gingrich launched a broadside against Cole and the rest of the House Republican leadership, warning that the party faced a “catastrophic collapse” if they didn’t immediately change course in this political environment “reminiscent of the depths of the Watergate disaster.” And yesterday Cole himself added to the gloom, warning members that the NRCC doesn’t have enough money to “save them” in November:
“It was a pretty stern line that he took with us,” said one House Republican.
Cole, on the defensive in the wake of special election losses in Louisiana and Illinois, pointed his finger Tuesday at his Republican colleagues, telling them that they had been too stingy in helping fund party efforts.
[…] Cole’s overall message was clear, said members who sat through the meeting: “If you’re not out doing your own work, and you’re waiting for the NRCC to come in at the last minute and save you, it ain’t gonna happen.” That’s how one lawmaker characterized Cole’s talk, adding that the NRCC is “not going to have the resources” to help all members “and Democrats will have a lot more money.”
That’s bad news for Republicans like Dave Reichert, who yesterday found himself on yet another top-ten list of “Most Vulnerable Incumbents,” this time in the pages of the highly respected (and subscription-only) Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call:
Dave Reichert (R-Wash.)
It’s tough to go from hero cop to endangered incumbent in such a short stretch of time, but that’s the former King County sheriff’s fate in a suburban Seattle district that is steadily becoming more Democratic. Reichert still has a reservoir of good will to draw from as he fights off Democrat Darcy Burner for the second straight cycle. But Burner has become a more polished and confident campaigner — and has outpaced the incumbent on the fundraising front for the past few quarters.
Actually, she’s outpaced Reichert in every fundraising quarter since declaring her candidacy last year, and there’s no reason to expect that trend to reverse itself. Reichert’s never had a reputation in Congress as a hard worker, either as a legislator or a fundraiser, and he’s finding it particularly difficult to raise money now that his party is firmly entrenched in the minority. Not that Reichert has ever been a stellar performer, relying on multi-million dollar bailouts from the NRCC to carry him to victory in each of his two previous elections… bailouts that Cole warns might not be available this time around.
The fact is, even well-larded lobbyists balk at throwing good money after bad, and recent special election losses could dry up resources for the NRCC. Back in December Cole was almost cheerful as money finally started to pour in after Republicans successfully defended a couple seats in Virginia and Ohio, telling staffers:
“I’ve seen more lobbyists this morning than I’ve seen in four months,” he said. The lobbyists were passing out checks, he told them gleefully. “I’ve got one in my pocket from a guy I ran into in the street.”
But I’m guessing Cole’s pockets are pretty empty these days, now that a spate of recent special elections haven’t gone his way. And that’s gotta be bad news for vulnerable incumbents like Dave Reichert.
Looks like I spoke too soon. It’s not a split decision after all, at least not in terms of the expectations game that drives political coverage and momentum.
Obama won big in North Carolina, the way he was expected to win weeks ago, but significantly better than recent polls suggested. Meanwhile, it’s still “too close to call” in Indiana, with a lot of precincts left to report from the Gary area. That means Obama beat expectations there too.
But more important than my opinion is that of the legacy media, who seem to think it’s a big night for Obama too. And that’s the spin that’s gonna give uncommitted superdelegates the excuse to swing to Obama.
The game’s not over, but we’re all pretty sure how it’s gonna end.
UPDATE [7:39]:
Clinton is speaking, and it doesn’t sound like she’s conceding.
UPDATE [7:43]:
Q: What do Hillary Clinton and I have in common?
A: We both plug our websites asking for money.
UPDATE [9:15]:
I just got an email from SEIU with the subject header: “Obama: Clearly the Presumptive Presidential Nominee.” So I guess that’s it, huh. It’s all over.
Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. We meet at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E, although some of us will show up a little early for dinner.
Tonight’s activity will be a brawl over tonight’s theme song: either Goin’ Back To Indiana by The Jackson Five or Carolina in My Mind by James Taylor. So get past your bitterness, dodge a little sniper fire and get involved…in the political mêlée.
If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally . Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.
The networks have called North Carolina for Barack Obama, and the exit polls suggest that Hillary Clinton will likely win Indiana by a comfortable margin. No surprises there. Once all the ballots are counted, it appears Obama will likely pick up a few more delegates today than Clinton. Again, no surprise.
This settles nothing, so it’s time for the super delegates to step up and do their job and settle this for us.
Get out your ice skates Satan, me and Newt Gingrich actually agree about something!
The Republican loss in the special election for Louisiana’s Sixth Congressional District last Saturday should be a sharp wake up call for Republicans: Either Congressional Republicans are going to chart a bold course of real change or they are going to suffer decisive losses this November.
The facts are clear and compelling.
Saturday’s loss was in a district that President Bush carried by 19 percentage points in 2004 and that the Republicans have held since 1975.
This defeat follows on the loss of Speaker Hastert’s seat in Illinois. That seat had been held by a Republican for 76 years with the single exception of the 1974 Watergate election when the Democrats held it for one term. That same seat had been carried by President Bush 55-44% in 2004.
Writing in the conservative online rag Human Events, Gingrich outlines the desperate situation Republicans find themselves in these days. President Bush’s approval ratings are at historic lows, while the Democratic advantage on the generic Congressional ballot is at historic highs, both “reminiscent of the depths of the Watergate disaster.” The Republican brand has been so damaged that anti-Obama or anti-Clinton attack ads “are simply going to fail.” And when it comes to the issues Americans care about most?
A February Washington Post poll shows that Republicans have lost the advantage to the Democrats on which party can handle an issue better — on every single topic.
Americans now believe that Democrats can handle the deficit better (52 to 31), taxes better (48 to 40) and even terrorism better (44 to 37).
This is a catastrophic collapse of trust in Republicans built up over three generations on the deficit, two generations on taxes, and two generations on national security.
Remember, this isn’t me saying these things (though I’ve already said many of them myself), this is Newt Gingrich, the man who engineered the Republican takeover of the House back in 1994.
Man it must suck to be a Republican right now.
UPDATE:
More bad news for GOP Inc.
Um, Dino… shouldn’t you be setting a better example for Washington’s youth, by actually wearing a seat belt? (You know, as required by law?)
And couldn’t you find something better to reward that poor woman than that crappy book? It’s printed in 18-point type for chissakes, like a children’s book. (And at about the same vocabulary level.)
And Dino… that pathetic, poor-loser whining about winning “again,” this time with a “recount-proof majority of votes”…? It just comes off as bitter, bitter, bitter… despite that shit-eating grin of yours.
I’m just sayin’.
Both John McCain and Hillary Clinton propose a summer “holiday” from the federal gasoline tax, but did you know that this tax has been steadily falling in inflation adjusted dollars for the past 15 years?
The federal gas tax was last raised in 1993, from 14.1 cents a gallon to the current 18.4 cents. Adjusted for inflation, that makes our current tax the equivalent of only 12.4 cents a gallon in 1993 dollars. It is interesting to note that if in 1959, the year Congress established the National Highway Trust Fund, the then 4 cent tax was pegged to inflation, consumers would now be paying about 29.4 cents a gallon.
Still think our federal gas tax is unaffordable? Take a look at the US tax compared to a handful of other industrialized nations:
| Country | Gas tax in US cents |
| Belgium | 422 |
| France | 421 |
| Germany | 449 |
| Italy | 403 |
| Japan | 439 |
| Netherlands | 466 |
| United Kingdom | 471 |
| United States | 18.4 |
Even when you add in state and local taxes, US consumers get a relative bargain, only a combined 39 cents a gallon on average, with Washington residents paying a near national high of 54.4 cents.
At a time when our bridges are collapsing and many of our cities are clogged with congestion (not to mention global warming and our blood-for-oil war in Iraq), it is hard to see how we can afford to keep the tax at the current historically low level, let alone suspend it entirely for a few months. Indeed, according to today’s Seattle P-I:
The gas tax holiday proposed by Sens. John McCain and Hillary Clinton would save the typical Washington driver $28 this year but cost the state about $126 million in lost highway money and more than 4,300 highway-related jobs, according to a recent report.
Or, it may not actually save the typical Washington driver anything, as according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Historically, price changes for consumer gasoline have been driven by changes in supply as opposed to demand. In all recent cases, interruptions in the supply of crude petroleum resulted in significant increases in the prices of crude petroleum, wholesale gasoline, and consumer gasoline. However, changes in demand affected gasoline prices only marginally.
Since suspending the federal gas tax will do nothing to increase supply, and could actually increase demand, one can only assume that market forces will act to increase the retail price to fill the void. (That is, assuming you believe in the economic laws of supply and demand.)
Coming up, I’ll tie all my research together into a cogent argument for higher state and federal gas taxes.
Did you know that despite an increase of 13 cents a gallon over the past few years, Washington state’s motor fuel excise tax, as a percentage of the retail price of a gallon of regular grade gasoline, has actually fallen from about 21.9% in May of 1998 to about 9.6% in May of 2008? And did you know that at 36 cents a gallon, our state gas tax is still well below historic averages in inflation adjusted dollars?
Surprised? I wasn’t.
Coming up, I’ll one-up Barack Obama and explain why we not only shouldn’t be cutting the gas tax, but raising it. Dramatically. Stay tuned.
I’m sitting in the Starbucks at the corner of Rainier Ave. S. and MLK Way S., waiting for my tires to be replaced at Firestone… and tapped into the WiFi network emanating from the construction site at Sound Transit’s Mount Baker Station across the street.
While I appreciate the free wireless access, and I’m certainly not sucking up much bandwidth, I wouldn’t recommend they leave their WiFi router wide open like this. I’m just sayin’.
There’s a fascinating Senate primary going on down in Oregon between two Democrats who are barely distinguishable on substance, but entirely different species when it comes to style. I’ve already mentioned how much I love Steve Novick’s ads, which seem to embrace my “politics as unusual” motto. But it’s also great to see Jeff Merkley getting into a pissing match with incumbent Gordon Smith, if in a more traditional advertising style.
I blew out a tire at about 8:25 this morning, heading Eastbound across the I-90 bridge. I limped to the West Mercer exit, pulled over onto the shoulder, and proceeded to swap on the spare. At about 8:35, no more than ten minutes into the incident, a WSDOT roadside assistance truck pulled up behind me, and good thing too, as my “donut” was low on air.
The WSDOT worker was helpful and friendly and prompt. From the driver’s perspective, it’s great to get this sort of “free” assistance, unasked for, but of course his real job is to get cars like mine off the freeway as quickly and safely as possible so as not to tie up traffic.
When conservatives complain about out-of-control government spending they are complaining about services like this. I suppose we could just leave fools like me to our own devices — I’d been meaning to replace my tires for months, and certainly didn’t deserve any free assistance — but that would merely inconvenience and endanger the rest of us when disabled vehicles snarl up traffic. Or, I suppose we could fine every stranded motorist to offset the costs, but that would transform the WSDOT roadside assistance worker from a smiling helping hand into a hated tax collector.
In the end, even though I didn’t really need the help — I’m handy enough to change my own tire, and my donut had enough air to get me to the nearest gas station — it is comforting to know that the help is there if I need it. And perhaps the folks at WSDOT might be comforted to know that on this particular morning they have at least one damn satisfied taxpayer.
Officials are investigating the deaths of six sea lions who appear to have been shot Sunday after climbing onto traps in the Columbia River.
Wildlife officials said that the bodies of the sea lions were discovered at noon Sunday on two floating traps just below Bonneville Dam.
“In each of the two traps were three dead sea lions,” Brian Gorman, regional spokesman for the National Marine Fisheries Service, said. “There was one Stellar sea lion and two California sea lions in each trap.”
The sea lions appear to have been shot during the night by someone on the Washington side of the river, Gorman said.
I’m far from a PETA type, but I did think it was sensible that the sea lions being trapped were going to Sea World rather than just being killed.
Now some sick individual has probably put the entire thing on hold. I can empathize that law enforcement officers always have a lot on their plate, especially dealing with crimes against humans rather than animals, but it would be great if someone is brought to justice in this case. That’s just wrong.
(Cross-posted at my personal blog.)
From the latest NY Times/CBS News poll:
A majority of American voters say that the furor over the relationship between Senator Barack Obama and his former pastor has not affected their opinion of Mr. Obama, but a substantial number say that it could influence voters this fall should he be the Democratic presidential nominee, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
So the media’s incessant focus on Rev. Wright hasn’t changed voters’ opinion of Obama, merely their opinion of other people’s opinion. That must be very disappointing for the talking heads.
At the same time, an overwhelming majority of voters said candidates calling for the suspension of the federal gasoline tax this summer were acting to help themselves politically, rather than to help ordinary Americans.
Which I suppose in the eyes of Hillary Clinton makes the overwhelming majority of voters “elitists.”
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