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With unemployment jumping at the fastest rate in 22 years, the US House just passed a 13 week extension of unemployment benefits. Kudos to Rep. Jim McDermott (D-Seattle) for sponsoring the bill and shepherding it through the House.

Curiously, while news of the bill’s passage currently graces the electronic front pages of both the New York Times and the Washington Post, at the time of this posting neither the Seattle Times nor the Seattle P-I have bothered to update their web sites to report on the legislative accomplishment of the congressman who represents their district.

Hmm. I wonder if slights like this have anything to do with McDermott’s undeserved reputation in some circles as a less than accomplished legislator?

David Sirota’s new book The Uprising, has hit the New York Times non-fiction bestseller list just in time for tonight’s discussion and book signing at Seattle’s Elliott Bay Books, 7:30PM, 101 S. Main Street.

Sirota, whose nationally syndicated column appears weekly in the Seattle Times, chronicles the rise of a new populist movement that is changing the face of American politics, and is just, well, fascinating to talk to. I wish I could be there tonight, but I’ve got my own speaking engagement at the same time, in which I get to play second-fiddle to Dan Savage. Ah well.

The Seattle Times rails against Tent City, showing stunning ignorance at the same time:

“Tent City,” which camped in Kirkland in late winter, and is in Bellevue now, is scheduled to move to Mercer Island Aug. 2. This encampment has been on the Eastside since 2004, migrating from one church or temple to the next, 100 people living rent-free in camping gear. What is the point?

[…]

As a protest, it had whatever impact it is going to have. Now it becomes tiresome. There are shelter beds. There are opportunities for work.

Itinerant tent camps are not acceptable in a modern city. We didn’t have them before the 1990s, and most other American cities don’t have them now. They look at us and wonder why we ever allowed it.

Many of the homeless folks who live at Tent City have jobs. What they don’t have is first and last month’s rent, or don’t qualify for public housing.

In a 5-4 decision, the US Supreme Court ruled that prisoners held at Guantanamo Bay have the constitutional right to challenge their detentions in US courts.

“The laws and Constitution are designed to survive, and remain in force, in extraordinary times,” Justice Anthony M. Kennedy wrote for the court.

So… we are one vote on the SCOTUS away from allowing unlimited detention, without charge, and without the possibility of appeal, in contravention of the Constitution and hundreds of years of common law.  Remember what’s at stake in this election.

Learn more at The Real McCain.

Fresh on the heels of the Survey USA poll I wrote about this morning, Rasmussen Reports has just released their head-to-head poll pitting Washington state Gov. Christine Gregoire against her Republican challenger, Dino Rossi.

The Rasmussen poll surveyed 500 likely voters on June 9th. Gregoire led Rossi 50% to 43%, with another 2% selecting “other” and 5% who are not sure. The +7% advantage that Gregoire has in this poll is about double that of the SurveyUSA poll (which was taken from the 7th to the 9th of June).

What are the chances that Gregoire would win an election today, based just on this poll? Let’s figure it out using the computational equivalent of a sledge hammer. I simulated a million gubernatorial elections of 500 voters each election. Each voter in each election had a 50.0% chance of voting for Gregoire, a 43.0% chance of voting for Rossi, and a 7.0% chance of voting for neither.

Gregoire won 949,070 times and Rossi won 2,829 times. In other words, the poll results suggest that, for an election held now, Gregoire would have a 95.2% probability of winning the election and Rossi would win with a 4.8% probability.

Here is the distribution of outcomes (percentage of votes) from the million simulated elections (Rossi victories are those to the left of the red “tie” line, Gregoire victories are those to the right):

Since the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls were taken almost simultaneously using similar methods, it seems quite reasonable to combine the polls. Of the 1,137 pooled poll participants, 571 (or 50.2%) of them “voted” for Gregoire, 514 (or 215%) “voted” for Rossi and 52 (or 4.6%) choose neither. A million simulated gubernatorial elections later, Gregoire wins 952,104 times and Rossi wins 44,749 times. The pooled set of polls suggest that, if an election were held now, Gregoire would have a 95.5% probability of winning and Rossi would have a 4.5% probability of winning.

You may be wondering why Gregoire’s probability of winning actually increase when the Rasmussen poll is pooled with the SurveyUSA poll. The answer is that Gregoire percent of the vote actually decreases slightly in the pooled analysis. In the Rasmussen poll she led by 50%/(50% + 43%) = 53.8%. In the combined poll, she leads by 50.2%/(50.2% + 45.2%) = 52.6%. But even with a smaller estimated fraction of the vote, there is more certainty that her lead is real (95.2% for the Rasmussen versus 95.5% for the pooled polls). This is because the certainty is more strongly affected by the larger sample size in the pooled polls.

Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections (combined polls):

As I suggested previously, it is unlikely that Gregoire’s lead is an artifact of sampling error. Now, with seven consecutive polls in a row in which Gregoire leads Rossi, it is even more certain that she is truly in the lead.

(Cross-posted at Hominid Views.)

(©2006 TVW. View full source here.)

About an hour ago I received an email from YouTube informing me that at TVW’s request, they had pulled my clip of Dave Reichert talking about his intent to cut Medicare. I am in the process of filing a counter notice, and fully intend to defend my rights under the law.

But as you can see, it didn’t take me very long to upload the clip to another service. TVW is free to request LiveLeak pull this clip too, but there are plenty more video serving services where they came from—not to mention the technical ability to serve the clip myself—and I’m happy to play this game at least as long as TVW. Nothing will stop me from presenting Reichert’s own damning words to the public, short of a court order. (And perhaps, not even that.)

As I told TVW President and CEO Greg Lane yesterday, I will be happy to use TVW’s own embedded player with a time sequence parameter, once they make it available… but I’m not willing to wait. There are several fundamental issues at stake here, not the least of which being my Constitutional right to political speech, and a defense of the fair use exemption, one of the principle tools that make news reporting and commentary possible.

Had Mr. Lane contacted me before contacting YouTube, this confrontation might have been avoided. With a mutually acceptable technical compromise in the offing, it would be a shame to escalate this dispute any further… but that decision is now solely in the hands of TVW.

A new poll in the Washington state gubernatorial race was released yesterday. The SurveyUSA poll conducted from June 7th through the 9th asked 637 likely voters who they would vote for in an election held now. Governor Christine Gregoire received 50.4% of the “votes”, Dino Rossi received 46.9%, “other” received 1.4%, and only 1.3% were undecided.

The +3.5% lead for Gregoire is substantially narrower than her +11% lead in a May 12 Rasmussen poll. But the current result falls squarely in line with all other recent polls: a late-April Elway poll that gave Gregoire a +5% lead, a mid-April SurveyUSA poll that gave Gregoire a +4% lead, and a Rassmussen poll in late March that gave Gregoire a +1% lead.

The current SurveyUSA poll results are within the 4.0% margin of error, which means that, given a sample of only 637 likely voters, the probability that Gregoire’s lead is “real” (in an election held now) is something under 95%. This is commonly called a “statistical tie,” but we can do better than that. We can estimate the probability that Gregoire would beat Rossi (and vice versa) in an election held now.

I simulated a million gubernatorial elections of 637 voters each election. Each voter in each election had a 50.4% chance of voting for Gregoire, a 46.9% chance of voting for Rossi, and a 3.5% chance of voting for neither.

Gregoire won 824,097 of the elections, and Rossi took 9,687. In other words, the poll results suggest that, for an election held now, Gregoire would have an 83.2% probability of winning the election and Rossi would have a 16.8% chance of winning the election.

Here is the distribution of number of votes (converted into percentages) from the million elections (Rossi victories are those to the left of the red “tie” line, Gregoire victories are those to the right):

The good news for Rossi is that this poll places him back in the running, unlike the previous Rasmussen result. Rossi may have been “unlucky” during that poll—that is, just by chance, perhaps too many Gregoire supporters were polled. Alternatively, Gregoire may have experienced a large surge in support last month.

The bad news for Rossi is that Gregoire has held the lead for six polls in a row now, and has led in seven out of the eight polls taken this year. (The last time Rossi led was in a March 5th Rasmussen poll, in which he held a slim +1% advantage.)

With poll after poll showing Gregoire up, it becomes very difficult to attribute her leads to chance. In other words, the consistency across polls suggest that Gregoire really does hold a solid lead over Rossi—at least at this point in the election season.

Gov. Chris Gregoire has another post up on Daily Kos:  “Republicans refuse to take on climate change.”

Another Republican failure of leadership on renewable energy and climate change happened yesterday in the U.S. Senate. The “drill first and ask questions later” policy of Big Oil and Republicans has not served citizens paying at the pump and won’t in the future. We need to think bigger. What’s wrong with investing some of those wind-fall profits into renewable energy? Energy independence and a cleaner environment sound like things we should be trying to achieve.

[…]

My Republican opponent’s environmental record shows his commitment to fighting climate change is simply political lip service. John McCain came to our state touting the need to fight global warming, but George Bush Republicans like my opponent and those in the U.S. Senate killed the climate change bill and killed a bill today to make Big Oil invest in renewable energy.

While fighting climate change should be a nonpartisan issue, Republicans in Washington have shown us that if we really want to fight climate change, we need to elect Democrats in November.

We are a nation of innovators, and we are in a crisis. I am confident that with a Democratic partner in the other Washington, we can work together to develop the next generation of clean technology and put policies in place that will move us to a greener tomorrow.

Gov. Gregoire makes a blunt point that too many in our media refuse to acknowledge:  in the current political climate, if you care about climate change, if you care about the environment, then you can’t trust the Republicans to get the job done.  On this, as on many other progressive issues, and with few exceptions, the most important thing you need to know about a candidate is the little “D” or “R” next to their name on the ballot.  (You know, except here in WA where our bullshit top-two primary doesn’t even give voters that important piece of information.)

Help Gov. Gregoire get her message out to a wider audience, and recommend her post on Daily Kos.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. Officially, we start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some folks show up early for Dinner.

Tonight’s activity…we will “veto every single beer”…

…with ill-marks, because it’s a Google.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

I had a very friendly conversation with TVW President and CEO Greg Lane this afternoon, and I think we came away with a mutual understanding about our little dispute.

TVW would like its coverage to be distributed as widely as possible, but they don’t want it to appear like they are responsible for editing or excerpting their raw footage. We bloggers, on the other hand, can’t very well illustrate our commentary by inserting a link with an instruction to, say, scroll to the 52 minute mark.

To accommodate both our needs, TVW is working on a technical solution: a flash player that we can embed into our posts—like YouTube—but with a contiguous time sequence as an optional parameter. We get an easier way to select and present pertinent excerpts, and TVW assures the integrity of their coverage by serving it themselves.

I think that’s a win-win. Of course, it doesn’t prevent anybody from downloading events and editing together clip reels, but my guess is the vast majority of bloggers will simply opt for the embedded player out of convenience alone. I figure that’s what I’ll do.

As for the contested clip, Lane informs me that they did request it be pulled back on Friday, and that YouTube has confirmed receipt of their request… but so far it’s still available for your viewing pleasure.

(©2006 TVW. View full source here.)

UPDATE:
YouTube has finally pulled the clip, so I’ve uploaded it to LiveLeak:

According McCain campaign internal polling, the Iraq war remains the number one issue for northwest voters:

Davis says that campaign polling shows that nationwide, the economy is the top issue voters are concerned about, with the Iraq war No. 2, and energy and gas costs in third place. But in the northwest, the war is the top issue. That’s true in only a few regions in the country, according to the McCain campaign. Here, the economy is second and gas prices are third.

One of the taunts routinely launched at Darcy Burner and her Responsible Plan to end the war in Iraq, is that she’s still running the last campaign, foolishly focusing on a war that most voters really don’t care all that much about anymore.  But Darcy has never stopped talking with voters since narrowly losing in 2006, and she’ll be the first to tell you that this is the issue voters most often bring up when talking with her.

Huh.  Turns out, they’re telling the same thing to McCain’s pollsters.  Who’d a thunk?