HorsesAss.Org

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votes	Mean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by a mean of 369 to 169 electoral votes. Today we get 18 new polls in 14 states to weigh in on the race. But there were really no surprises in the polls—just some tightening up on both sides.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections (based on 137 “current” state head-to-head surveying 95,785 respondents, mostly in the past seven days), Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama still receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. Obama would have a near-100.0% probability of winning if the election had been held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

With just a few days to go until the election, Governor Christine Gregoire (D) holds onto her slight lead over challenger Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”). This election is the rematch of the famous 2004 election that resulted in two ballot recounts and ended up in a six month legal challenge.

A new Washington Poll, a non-partisan, academic survey from the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity and Race, finds Gregoire leading Rossi by 50% to 48%. The survey was conducted from 27-Oct to 31-Oct on a sample of 387 registered Washington voters; the margin of error is ±5.0%.

This poll yields results identical to the previous two poll, the first by SurveyUSA taken from 26-Oct to 27-Oct, that was 50% to 48% in Gregoire’s favor. And before that a Strategic Vision poll taken from 25-Oct to 26-Oct, had Gregoire up 49% to 47%—again a +2% edge over Rossi. One must go back ten polls to find Rossi in the lead—that’s all the way back to mid-September:

A combined analysis of the last three consecutive polls—which spans the range 25-Oct to 31-Oct—gives Gregoire 50.8% of the “votes” and Rossi, 49.2% of the “votes.” If the election had been held today, Gregoire would have had a 68.4% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of votes generated by the analysis (i.e. this is the distribution of possible election outcomes in terms of the percentage of votes for each candidate):

The poll also finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain in Washington state 51% to 39%. The +12% margin is narrower than the +17% (56% to 39%) Obama lead found in the SurveyUSA poll, but it matches the +12% (54% to 42%) lead over McCain found in the Strategic Vision poll.

(Cross posted at Hominid Views)

Last week’s winners were ibogaine, who first guessed the correct location of Chilliwack, BC, Cody, who posted the link, and Dan Robinson for making horrible puns.

And to answer a question from last week, I’m not getting paid by Microsoft to do this (although I used to work there), I just think it’s cool technology.

Here’s this week’s contest. No credit for just naming the city or town, gotta name the street or post the link to win. Good luck!

Worst. Campaign. Ever.

From National Post:

A Quebec comedy duo notorious for pulling prank calls on celebrities have struck again. This time, comedian Marc Antoine Audette and Sebastian Trudel Audette, known as the Masked Avengers, tricked Republican Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin into believing that she was speaking to French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

—snip—

Throughout the interview Audette drops hints that he’s not who he claims to be. He names popular French singer Johnny Hallyday as his advisor on U.S. affairs and Quebec singer Stef Carse was named as Canada’s Prime Minister.

“We have such great respect for you [Sarkozy], John and I,” she gushed.

Later in the interview, Audette, jokes that he and Palin shared an interest in common, hunting.

“We should try hunting by helicopter like you did, I never did that,” Audette said.

“We could have a lot of fun together while we’re getting work done. Kill two birds with one stone,” Palin replied.

I couldn’t stand to listen to more than about the first thirty seconds.

If you must, it’s up at Eschaton. And probably all other corners of the Toobz.

There is now nothing left to be said about this woman.

This has been quite an election season, one that we’ll be talking about for generations. As we head into the final stretch, here’s a roundup of what’s been on my radar:

– Andrew at the NPI Advocate is helping out Roger Goodman in his 45th Legislative District race. Andrew and I are hardly identical in our political outlooks, but we both recognize the potential that he holds. Roger’s a unique kind of politician with tremendous leadership skills who deserves to hold on to that seat. I’ve hit the phones for him and hope that others are inspired to help out in any way they can.

– Medical marijuana patients in Washington have been split down the middle on the Governor’s race. There are some who think that Christine Gregoire’s interference in the process to identify limits is reason enough to vote for Dino Rossi. And there are others who think that Dino Rossi will likely be worse for patients. About two weeks ago, two individuals tried to issue a press release with the title “Medical Marijuana Leaders Support Rossi.” When pressed who those leaders were, the two gentlemen then gave a list of four names – two of whom did not support Rossi. Steve at Reality Catcher has more about the silliness here.

– I’m still planning to vote for Republican Marcia McCraw in the Lieutenant Governor’s race, but she’s every bit as nutty as Brad Owen. But she gets my vote because her nuttiness doesn’t potentially threaten the freedom and well-being of Washington residents the way Owen’s radical prohibitionist views do – especially considering that either one of these guys is next in line for the Governor’s mansion.

– The increasing level of hostility that’s been seen at Republican Presidential rallies this fall reminded me of something that my old roommate at the University of Michigan experienced back in the election of 1996. She’s African-American and was taking a political science course. As part of her work for the class, she had to do exit polling at a poll location about 20 minutes from Ann Arbor in rural Washtenaw County. She came back to the house in tears at around 6 o’clock, well before the polls closed, after several hours of being called just about anything you could imagine by rednecks and other assorted racists.

I have a bad feeling about what’s about to transpire this Tuesday at polling places across the country. I hope my fears are unwarranted, but if bad things do happen, the burden is on John McCain to be a goddamn maverick again and tell the morons in his party that this kind of nonsense is the real enemy within.

Throughout the fall of 2006 the polls showed Darcy Burner steadily closing in on Dave Reichert.  While her internal polling never showed her with a lead, several other polls showed the race within the margin of error during the final weeks, and momentum seemed to be on her side.  Even on election night, trailing by a few thousand votes, there were some experienced vote counters who projected a narrow Burner victory, with late absentee ballots shifting the race her way.

Well, it didn’t happen.  Throughout most of the district late absentees trended toward Dave Reichert, who gradually expanded his lead as votes were tallied.

In retrospect it seems clear that Burner’s momentum stalled around mid October, with the race breaking slightly toward Reichert during the final two weeks of the campaign.  No doubt there were a number of factors responsible for Reichert’s victory, but many observers credit his sexist and demeaning “job interview” ad… and the Burner campaign’s failure to adequately respond.

Will 2008 be a replay?

Once again Burner closed sharply on Reichert, with several polls showing her with a small but significant lead by mid October.  And once again the Reichert campaign has attempted to swing the race his way with a demeaning and dishonest ad.

No doubt the “Harvard Hoax” ad is effective; there is plenty of anecdotal evidence suggesting that many viewers come away believing that Burner never earned a degree from Harvard at all.  But this time the Burner campaign has directly responded with an ad of its own, calling Reichert’s lies “pathetic”, and assuring voters that she did indeed graduate from Harvard.

But perhaps the real game changer this election season is the diminishing opportunity for a game changing ad at all, when viewed in the context of the unprecedented torrent of negative advertising that has flooded our airwaves in recent weeks… much of it courtesy of the $7 million the BIAW and RGA dumped into the governor’s race at the last minute.

In the context of this tidal wave of negativity, the “Havard Hoax” ad comes across as just another ripple… just another attack ad lost in the deafening roar of a sea of attack ads.  Add to that the general distraction of the presidential race, and it becomes harder and harder for any one political ad to make a difference.  Even the NRCC’s predictably effective “she’s gonna raise your taxes” ads get lost in the noise of “she’s gonna raise your taxes” ads launched against Gov. Gregoire.

“Yeah, we know already…” the vast majority of voters must be screaming to themselves, “She’s a Democrat.  She’s going to raise our taxes.  We get it.”  Who exactly “she” is, and in what race, well, what’s the difference?

Compare that to the 2006 cycle, when the biggest race on the ticket, Cantwell vs. McGavick, had already effectively been over for weeks, and McGavick shifted toward softer ads to preserve his reputation.  In that context the job interview ad could stand out.  In 2008… well… not so much.

I’m not claiming victory or anything, or making any predictions, but I do think it reasonable to suppose that Reichert has faced a much greater challenge this year in his efforts to close out the campaign trashing Burner’s character and reputation.  And for that, the BIAW and RGA’s seemingly bottomless warchest deserves at least some of the credit.

Maybe I’m being too sanguine, but I kind of wonder if stuff like this is really going to matter as much as it did in the past. Columbian reporter Michael Andersen has this article this morning:

For the second time in four years, would-be casino developer David Barnett is dropping tens of thousands of last-minute dollars to stop Tom Mielke from becoming a Clark County commissioner.

On Wednesday, a Seattle-based company owned by Barnett bought $59,000 in mailers opposing Mielke, state records show.

—snip—

Last week, the county Republican Party, boosted by a big donation from the local Building Industry Association, dropped $41,800 in a sharp anti-Brokaw mailing and TV campaign.

Mielke’s direct donations include $7,500 from La Center’s four existing casinos, which have long opposed a larger tribal operation nearby.

Things will change somewhat next cycle, as a sidebar to Andersen’s piece points out, if Clark County continues to have over 200,000 registered voters. That would result in the triggering of contribution limits. It won’t do anything about independent expenditures, though, so I guess this sort of thing will likely continue in the future.

Another thing in Andersen’s article: something like half the ballots have already been returned, so the folks who can afford to drop wads of cash at the last minute are seeing a diminished return.

I don’t know of a Constitutional way to deal with independent expenditures, but it sure gets old. Neither the BIAW nor Dave Barnett have the interests of the entire citizenry at heart. It’s just a game to them, if admittedly a game involving the mountains of money they hope to make by influencing public policy. Meanwhile, the regular old Joe (is everyone named Joe?) watches as his community struggles to pay for basic services like parks, roads and public safety. Maybe voting in large numbers will help.

(You can find more media clips from the past week in politics at Hominid Views.)

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votes	Mean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. For today, we get to add in 42 new polls representing 23 states. But no big surprises emerges, and no change to the score.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. If an election had been held today, Obama would win with a near-100.0% probability.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

See, it’s not just me.  Everybody from Philadelphia talks this way.

Haunted Mansion at Disneyland last week. They do a “Nightmare Before Christmas” theme this time of year. Photo credit to my wife.

Happy processed sugar, kids.

Sarah Palin:

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

That’s right, the biggest threat to our First Amendment rights is a free press.  George Orwell would be proud.  And appalled.

Politico has put together a list of potential appointees in an Obama administration, and the two names being bandied about by Beltway insiders for Secretary of the Interior are Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Rep. Jay Inslee.

That would be a great resume and profile boost for Inslee, who we all assume aspires to the governor’s mansion, and a well earned reward for his leadership on environmental and alternative energy issues.  But it would throw WA-01’s political scene into turmoil, as there’s no obvious heir, and there’s no reason to count this a safe Democratic seat without Inslee in it.

Let the jostling begin.

UPDATE:
I asked Inslee’s office if they would comment on this speculation, and Torie Brazitis promptly responded:

“Nope.  Mr. Inslee is focused on the election and making sure that Senator Obama gets elected to be our next President.”

Just a few minutes ago on KUOW’s The Conversation, Seattle Times editorial board member Joni Balter kvelled over her paper’s editorial independence and quirkiness, boasting:

“You’d have to open our paper to figure out who we are going to endorse.”

Uh-huh.  And yet, back on September 21, I accurately predicted the Times’ endorsement in every single contested federal and statewide race:

As expected, the Seattle Times editorial board has endorsed Barack Obama for President of the United States, paving the way for endorsements of Republicans Dino Rossi, Rob McKenna, Sam Reed, Allan Martin, Dave Reichert and Cathy McMorris Rodgers, all the while leaving their vaunted bipartisan principles intact.  At least, in their own minds.

In fact, with the possible exception of the race for Commissioner of Public Lands, I can’t imagine a single additional closely contested statewide or federal race in WA state in which the Times endorses a Democrat.

So if your ed board is so unpredictable, Joni, how do you explain my prediction?