HorsesAss.Org

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes. Obama had a 100% chance of winning an election held yesterday.

Today, there were 35 new polls representing 22 states released. The net result is a one-vote decline for Obama.

An analysis of 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning every one. Obama receives (on average) 362 to McCain’s 176 electoral votes. Obama still has a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

It’s something you did. At times it actually was about peace and love, although it may seem strange now.

Then some people did bad things before you were born, and therefore you are all Marxists. Sins of the father you know.

If NRO, the Doughy Pantload and Eric Earling should last for a thousand years, people on the right will still babble: you are all dirty fucking hippies.

Luckily our finest hour is very nearly upon us. Never before have so many contributed to the defeat of so few.

My Phillies have just won only their second World Series in 126 years.  So be patient.

Josh and I just got kicked out of the Rossi press conference, because we’re told, no partisan bloggers allowed. I guess I understand me, but I’m paying Josh, and that, I was led to believe is what defines a working journalist.

You’d think maybe some of Josh’s colleagues might stick up for him. After all, he’s one of the few political reporters in the state still getting paid.

UPDATE:
Lowney: “Rossi more deeply involved than we knew.”

A lot of memory lapses, a lot of obstruction from Rossi’s attorneys.

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The key meetings at heart of this complaint did involve financial matters and fundraising for a political campaign. Confirmed.

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Will seek sanctions against Rossi’s attorney. “Most obstructive” deposition ever witnessed.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
You can read a transcript of the deposition here.

Gee, that Doug Sutherland… he sure is friendly:

Speaking to a female reporter about forest certification, Sutherland made an unprompted analogy, “You have to do things in logical sequence: you wouldn’t put your coat on to go outside, then put your underwear on. Well, I don’t know what you do with your underwear.” He laughed.

Yeah, because it’s always funny to ask a female reporter about her underwear.

Considering the recent bad press over his sexual harassment of a young, female DNR employee, you’d think when talking to young women in a professional setting, Sutherland might want to avoid commenting on their underwear.

Clearly, Sutherland has a pattern of inappropriate behavior that would make most voters uncomfortable.  Whether enough voters are aware of this, we’ll find out on Tuesday.

What time Friday do you think the bin Laden tape will show up?

Word coming out of the Dino Rossi deposition during the lunch break was that Rossi and his attorney have been totally obstructionist throughout the first half of the proceedings, refusing to answer many of attorney Knoll Lowney’s questions.  I assume that if this behavior continues through the afternoon, Lowney will ask Judge Kallas to impose sanctions, which may include additional hours of deposition.  We’ll see.

One of my favorite right wing maneuvers involves pleas for “civility” in politics. Once the righties figure out the nastiness isn’t working and they are likely to lose, some of them start insisting that the problem is a lack of civility. It’s all so utterly predictable, it strikes me as funny.

Case in point: Columbian reporter Michael Andersen has an article today about a Clark County businessman named Andrew Deal who has set up a web site urging civility in politics. Nothing wrong with that in and of itself, and never mind the same dude did the same thing four years ago, to not much effect if the truth be known.  But Deal makes a claim in today’s article that bears some scrutiny:

“Four years ago, the story was about how 58 percent of the population was worried that we’d end up in court again,” said Deal, who organized a similar event in 2004. “This time, it’s 60 percent of people think that widespread voter fraud is likely.”

And now let’s go to The Google and see what we find regarding that claim about voter fraud. Hmmm. The top hit is from, of all things, Fox Noise on Oct. 22:

Most Americans think there will be extensive voter fraud in the upcoming presidential election. A FOX News poll released Wednesday shows 60 percent think it is either “very” likely, 28 percent, or “somewhat” likely, 32 percent, there will be widespread fraud in voting this year, and 35 percent think it is unlikely.

Yeah, um, okay. Since a lot of the article is about bashing ACORN, it’s pretty hard to take it seriously.

And that, my friends, is how unsubstantiated right wing bullshit gets catapulted out into the wider world, following a direct line from Drudge to Fox Noise and on down.

What’s hilarious, or pathetic actually, is that Deal’s firm, CGI Productions, is listed as being responsible for “web application development” at the bottom of the Clark County Republican Party web page.

That would be the same Clark County Republicans who, in January, felt free to post the infamous “Obama is a Muslim” smear on their web site.

I guess “civility” is all about being nice to Republicans, and letting them hate and lie to their little hearts’ content.

Both SurveyUSA and Strategic Vision released new polls yesterday showing Gov. Chris Gregoire with a two point lead over Republican challenger Dino Rossi.

SurveyUSA shows Gregoire leading 50-48, well within their margin of error, yet finds Gregoire holding a more comfortable 53-46 lead amongst the 54% of respondents who said they’ve already voted.  Strategic Vision, considered by most observers to be a Republican polling firm, shows Gregoire leading 49-47, but doesn’t provide any crosstabs.

Considering the late stage of this race and the shitstorm of bad press Rossi is receiving this week, I’d guess these two polls just add to the cautious optimism of the Gregoire camp.  It is rather remarkable how nonvolatile this race has proven, given the unprecedented blitzkrieg of negative advertising.

Congratulations to the Seattle Times editorial board for finally surprising me with an endorsement, choosing Republican Marcia McCraw for lieutenant governor over the incumbent pseudo-Democrat Brad Owen.

But, uh-oh…

Republican Marcia McCraw has a complicated personal story that gives us pause, but she represents an opportunity for an infusion of new ideas and energy.

Now that’s a red flag if I ever saw one… reminiscent of when Joni Balter obliquely attributed David Iron’s mother’s refusal to vote for her own son to a “different family matter,” but refused to explain any further.  Yeah, the Times admits, McCraw has “a complicated personal story,” but don’t you voters worry your pretty little heads with grownup stuff like that.  We’ve endorsed McCraw, and that’s all you really need to know.

So what is so complicated about McCraw’s personal story?  Could the complication have anything to do with McCraw’s 2006 drunk driving conviction, a serious crime that’s killed almost as many political careers as it has innocent victims? (Which raises the question:  when McCraw and her boss Jane Hague go out for drinks after work, who’s the designated driver?)

Is it really possible that the same paper that turned a questionable parsing of the word “and” in Darcy Burner’s Harvard degree into a front page October surprise, has the balls to dismiss McCraw’s drunk driving conviction as shhhh… “a complicated personal story,” and just leave it at that?

Apparently… yeah.

Personally, I can’t bring myself to cast another ballot for Owen, but I’m sure as hell not voting for McCraw either.  But then, I’m not one of those coveted “low information voters” the Times apparently embraces as its target audience.

Via Ari Melber.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. Obama would have almost certainly won an election held yesterday.

There were 21 new polls from 17 states released today. In addition, with one week to the election, today is the day that the “current poll window” is scheduled to change from 10 days to 7 days. Both polls and the polling window affect today’s results.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes. Obama still has a 100.0% probability of winning an election held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. Officially, we start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some folks show up early to enjoy the cuisine.

Tonight will be something of a pre-election party. We’ll raise a toast to Alaska’s outgoing Senator—whatever you think of his politics, the man has convictions! Likewise, we’ll raise a toast to Dino Rossi in hopes that he gets himself some convictions.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, McCranium shoud have the scoop on the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.