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Via Attackerman, I see that John Hannah, a former aide to Dick Cheney, is still scratching his head about what went wrong in Afghanistan:

Ever since last year’s presidential campaign, there’s been an unfortunate tendency to assess America’s Afghan campaign as one long, steady downward spiral to disaster. “Eight years of drift,” according to Obama administration officials seeking to explain their lengthy deliberations over strategy and troop numbers. But, as Stephens suggests, the reality is a good deal more complex. The fact is that, after a period of genuine progress following the Taliban’s removal in late 2001, the situation in Afghanistan only began to deteriorate markedly between 2005 and 2006. Suicide attacks quintupled that year. Remotely detonated bombs more than doubled. Insurgent attacks nearly tripled. And the trends have steadily worsened every year since. The question is why? What changed in that time period that might help account for the sharp decline in America’s war fortunes?

Hannah provides a couple of guesses, but doesn’t stumble upon the answer. But what happened there during that time wasn’t much of a mystery. In fact it was fairly obvious that it would produce the outcome that it did. Let’s take a look back at what happened:

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Only one year after Barack Obama’s “change we can believe in” election, and in the midst of a crushing economic recession that has caused home prices to plummet, unemployment to spike, and state and local budgets to plunge into nearly unprecedented crisis, you might have expected incumbents to face more than a little pressure in our recent local elections.

Well… not so much.

In countywide races the sheriff, the one port commissioner seeking reelection and four of five county council incumbents faced no opposition at all, while Councilmember Reagan Dunn easily trounced his unfunded challenger 77-23. In Seattle, City Council President Richard Conlin easily waltzed to victory, while fellow incumbent Nick Licata beat highly touted Jesse Israel by a more than comfortable margin.

And of course in the marquee matchup this election season, longtime county councilmember Dow Constantine ran on experience in walloping putative reformer Susan Hutchison by a better than 18-point margin in the King County Executive race.

So what happened?

While most of the post-election punditry, including my own, has thus far focused on the horse race usuals of fundraising, messaging, strategy, and candidate performance, I think it fair to offer a suggestion that some may find somewhat heretical, and which is sure to disappoint those who feel themselves on the political outside:  perhaps incumbents did so well in our recent elections because voters are largely satisfied with the status quo?

Perhaps voters are generally okay with the level and quality of services provided by local government, and the level of taxes levied to pay for them? Perhaps voters appreciate the near total lack of public corruption our region has enjoyed since… well… at least since I moved here in 1992. Perhaps, despite the current economic downturn and our much publicized fits of paralysis when it comes to making a decision on important infrastructure projects, voters generally feel that our region is moving in the right direction?

Yes, much has been made in the news about the huge budget shortfalls hitting both the city and the county, and there has been much effort to blame this crisis on the overspending and mismanagement of the incumbents in charge, but perhaps local voters understand that with a few exceptions, both Seattle and King County have been pretty well managed in recent years, as evidenced by some of the highest municipal bond ratings in nation?

Perhaps voters are smart enough to look around and see that nearly every local government in every state is facing equal or worse financial difficulties, and thus it would be foolish to blame local budget writers for the inevitable consequences of the worst global economic downturn since the Great Depression?

And with the one Seattle levy on the ballot passing by a two to one margin, while Tim Eyman’s tax slashing I-1033 failed countywide with an overwhelming 69% no vote, perhaps the majority of local voters have even come to accept that it is a structural revenue deficit that threatens city and county budgets long term, not the out-of-control government spending that is the favored boogeyman of Republicans and Seattle Times editorialists alike?

Perhaps.

Yes, I know, two-term Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels came in an embarrassing third in the August primary, but that was really the exception this election, not the rule, and considering the buyer’s remorse expressed in the weeks following, it’s not hard to imagine him having beaten either Joe Mallahan or Mike McGinn in the general. But regardless, beyond that and the disastrously run campaign of ousted City Attorney Tom Carr, there really wasn’t much anti-incumbent/anti-government mood to speak of.

While I have my own well founded criticism of the general lack of passion, creativity and, well, balls of our state’s elected officials as a whole, voters here enjoy some of the cleanest, most transparent, scandal free local government in the nation. And while the Seattle metropolitan area certainly faces its own problems, they ain’t nothing like those confronting most other big cities.

Let’s face it, relatively speaking, things around here don’t suck, and perhaps, in rewarding incumbents, voters are giving credit where at least a little bit of credit is due?

In fact, as much as I might have a reputation with some as being a cheerleader for local Democrats, I’m arguably less sanguine about the direction in which our region is headed than the vast majority of voters. I know that the long term structural revenue deficit afflicting both state and local budgets threatens the quality of life and economic prosperity we’ve come to expect here in the Puget Sound region, and I have little faith in the current Democratic leadership to adequately address our present and looming fiscal crisis headlong. And without even a hint of a viable, reasonable, pro-government Republican faction to challenge it, I fear for the ability and willingness of our Democratic majority to challenge its leaders from within.

That said, at least for the moment, it’s pretty hard to run around these parts on a throw the bums out platform, when voters for the most part seem somewhat satisfied with the local government their getting. And all the usual horse race bullshit notwithstanding, that perhaps explains the woeful performance of challengers and self-proclaimed outsiders in this November’s election.

Paul Leonard of Vancouver Business Journal, in a piece dated yesterday:

One of the reasons behind his “No” vote, according to Baird, was that there was not enough time to consider Republican amendments to the legislation – a concern apparently held without regard to the GOP-led chants of “Kill the Bill” outside the Capitol last week.

As written here and here, the spiraling cost of employee healthcare coverage is the number one issue for small businesses – one that threatens the survival of those lucky or nimble enough to get this far through the deepest and most prolonged recession in 60 years.

These are concerns that Baird, as evidenced by VBJ’s Q&A with the Congressman last September, shares with his business constituency – making his vote against the healthcare bill all the more puzzling.

Small business is frequently hailed in campaign ads as the backbone of the American economy, if not its soul. Which is fine, as thriving small businesses hold the promise of future breakthroughs in technology and industry.

So it’s kind of strange that the national debate hasn’t featured more talk about the sometimes insurmountable challenges small businesses face when it comes to health care insurance. They need reform as badly as anyone.

(And there are some forty more media clips from the past week in politics at HominidViews.)

Just a reminder to join me tonight for a 5oth birthday roast of Geov Parrish, with all proceeds benefiting Eat the State!

I’ll be emceeing as Knute Berger (Crosscut), former school board president Brita Butler-Wall, Tim Harris (Real Change), Lansing Scott (ETS!), Maria Tomchick (KEXP) and Mike McCormick (KEXP) futilely attempt to out-duel me in terms of the cruelty we lovingly can heap on Geov.

The festivities take place at the University Baptist Church, 47th & 12th NE in Seattle’s University District, where there will be cake, desserts, the usual party frivolities, and of course, roasted Geov. Tickets are $15 or two for $25; all proceeds benefit. Doors open at 7PM.

Ten days after the election the votes are still being tallied, but the outcome only grows murkier with every passing day, setting the stage for a constitutional crisis that could grind our nation’s capital to a halt. What looked like a comfortable margin on election night has been shrinking steadily ever since, and with over 7,000 ballots left to count, and more arriving everyday, the lead could still changes.

That’s the sort of nightmare scenario that Secretary of State Sam Reed and his surrogates argue could only happen here in Washington state with our allegedly “absurd” postmarked by election day ballot deadline, but in fact it’s exactly what is happening in New York state in the hotly contested election for NY-23, only sorta, and not really as dramatically as the headline writers imply.

Trailing by 5,335 votes on election night, with 93 percent of the ballots counted, right-wingnut Doug Hoffman conceded the race, prompting Democrat Bill Owens to be swiftly sworn in to the House, just in time to cast a crucial vote in favor of healthcare reform. But as ballots continued to be tallied and errors were uncovered during recanvassing, Owens lead has shrunk to little more than 3,000 votes, with as many as 10,000 ballots remaining, raising the specter that the wrong man has been sworn into Congress.

Of course, the chance of Hoffman making up a 3,000 vote gap with so few ballots remaining is just shy of nil, but that hasn’t stopped the media from playing up the drama of what admittedly would be a really juicy story… you know, in the unlikely event it turned out to be true. Nor would this be the first time House leadership rushed to swear in the alleged winner of a special election before the results had been officially certified; the Republicans set that precedent.

But I find the hyperbolic coverage of this story most interesting, not just because it once again illustrates the point that shit happens, regardless of your election deadlines, but because it also clearly demonstrates how Reed and his surrogates are just plain wrong on one of their most basic “facts.”

Yesterday on KUOW, Reed once again stated that “most states” require ballots be received by election day, an assertion that has been repeated in media reports, but which is simply not true. New York state, for example, requires that ballots be postmarked the day before election day, and received no later than seven days after. But ballots from overseas citizens and uniformed service members are accepted as late as 13 days following the election, meaning that valid ballots will continue to arrive in NY-23 as late as next Monday.

Yes, there have been a couple excruciatingly close and drawn out contests here in Washington, but as rare as they are, they’re far from unique to our state and our mail-in voting system. Democracy is messy. Deal with it.

Longtime conservative talk show host Kirby Wilbur got canned by KVI yesterday, and as much as we disagreed on almost every issue, you might be surprised to learn that I’m sad to see him go.

Back when I first stumbled into activism, my talk radio skills were mostly honed on KVI, where I became a liberal mascot of sorts for John Carlson, Bryan Suits and particularly Kirby, who was happy to engage me on any number of issues, regardless of my lowly stature as a political crackpot/blogger, or even my lack of particular expertise. Kirby was always fair and friendly to me on the air, and generous and supportive off. It was Kirby who first suggested that I should get my own radio show, and he even went so far as to write me a letter of recommendation.

So despite the fact that he could be a right-wing wacko whose anti-government politics threatened our quality of life, I have a personal fondness for the man.

I also have a fondness for live, local programming, something Seattle listeners just lost another twenty hours a week of.

John has moved over to KOMO-1000, Bryan to bigger and better things at bigger and better KFI, and now with Kirby’s departure, KVI has been handed over entirely to syndication. I know the folks at Fisher know that ultra-local is the future of terrestrial radio if it wants to compete with satellite, podcasts and internet streaming, but for now at least, it looks like management has chosen the path of least resistance.

So best of luck Kirby, and rest assured that your cancelation is no reflection on you. 16 years behind the mic is something to be proud of, even if your bat-shit crazy politics is not.

This is kind of an odd story, not sure what to make of it. Oregonian reporter Allan Brettman reports that eleven members of the Northwest Congressional delegation signed a Nov. 9 letter to the Obama administration requesting funds for land purchases and economic development in the Columbia River Gorge.

The letter was signed by Oregon Sens. Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley and Washington Sens. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell. Oregon Congressmen Earl Blumenauer, David Wu, Kurt Schrader and Peter DeFazio joined in the request, as did Washington Congressmen Jay Inslee, Jim McDermott and Norm Dicks.

It was timed to coincide with the commemoration of the 25th anniversary of the Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area Act.

And Baird, a 3rd Congressional District Democrat, says in a written statement issued today that his name also should have been on the letter — but his staff didn’t tell him about it.

And I guess one can surmise that nobody else, including members of the delegation, told Baird about it either.

Did something happen over the weekend?

Even less surprising than the revelation that the Ivar’s undersea billboard was an elaborate hoax, is the revelation of how far the Seattle Times actually has that stick shoved up its collective ass:

Times Executive Editor David Boardman says that while he can appreciate the initiative behind the marketing ploy and had suspected it was a hoax, he was distressed that Dorpat, whose “Now & Then” column has appeared in the newspaper’s Pacific Northwest magazine since 1982, would lie to a Times reporter.

Dorpat’s continued freelance relationship with the paper is “under review,” Boardman says.

So let me get this right. The Ivar’s undersea billboard hoax that Paul Dorpat participated in, that’s a bad thing that perhaps warrants termination, while the Susan Hutchison “I’m not a Republican” hoax that the Times own editorial board participated in, that’s okay.

Uh-huh.

The morning after the election, I looked at the county-by-county vote and percent reporting, and confidently predicted…

R-71 passes by a comfortable 4 to 6 point margin.

After today’s tallies, R-71 now leads by a 6.04 percent margin. I stand corrected.

As best as I can tell, there are two main arguments being offered in favor of changing the ballot deadline from the current postmarked by election day to the more restrictive received by election day: 1) candidates and voters deserve to know who won on election night; and 2) it is the only way to avoid fiascos like the drawn out 2004 gubernatorial count.

But the flaw in these arguments is that they both represent a solution in search of a problem, and a solution that regardless, just wouldn’t work.

The gist of both arguments is that ballot counting is too slow, and that the only way to speed this is up is to require that all ballots be received by election day.  That way, theoretically, we could report somewhat complete unofficial results on election night, just like we used to do when voting was primarily conducted at the polls. But a quick glance at ballot statistics in both Washington and Oregon reveals just how faulty that logic is.

The following table shows the cumulative ballot receipt numbers for King County in the days just preceding and following the 2009 general election. The third column represents these ballots as a percentage of the total number cast, based on a projected turnout of 55%. The fourth column represents the cumulative number of ballots counted and reported as of the end of that day.

	Ballots Received	Pct. Of Vote	Ballots Counted
Fri. 10/30	229,825	38.70%
Mon. 11/2	289,950	48.82%
Tue. 11/3	452,522	76.19%	254,261
Wed. 11/4	572,611	96.41%	308,650
Thu. 11/5	581,313	97.88%	377,157
Fri. 11/6	582,757	98.12%	485,856

As can be seen, 452,522 ballots were received by election day, roughly 76% of the total number cast. Yet only 254,261 were counted by the end of the day… barely more than the total number of ballots in hand the Friday prior to the election.

The bulk of the remainder of the ballots cast arrived the next day, with 572,611 in hand at KCE, or over 96% of the total number cast. Yet only 308,650 of these were counted by the end of Wednesday.

There are several obvious lessons to learn from the data. The first is that KCE can’t keep pace with the ballots it is already receiving, thus any delay in reporting returns is due not to a lack of ballots, but rather a lack of capacity to process them. This is true in Oregon as well, which typically reports only 50% of total votes by the first ballot drop election night, not much better than King County, and generally somewhat worse than Washington state as a whole.

That said, even the 43% of total votes reported by KCE on election night was a large enough sample to accurately project the winner in all but a handful of the hundreds of contests countywide. Candidates and voters do know the winners on election night, at least in the vast majority of races.

Of course, as the 2004 gubernatorial contest reminds us, there are those exceptionally close races where the counting and recounting can drag on for weeks, but these are fleetingly rare, and regardless, would not be impacted at all by moving the ballot deadline. This November, over 96.4% of ballots were received by Wednesday, and 98.1% by Friday. Even if we were willing and able to dedicate the resources necessary to count the ballots as they come in, it would only accelerate initial reports by a day, maybe two at most.

The fact is, it typically only takes a day or two to send mail within the county, thus the bulk of late postmarked ballots will inevitably arrive within a day or two following the election, as the table above definitively shows. Most of the remainder of ballots that trickle in over the next week or two are those coming from voters overseas and/or in the uniformed services, and I’m guessing there is little or no political support for making it even harder for overseas military personnel to vote.

That’s why, even in states with more restrictive ballot deadlines, exceptions are usually made for overseas voters. For example, Pennsylvania, which requires elective absentee ballots be received by the Friday before the election, allows overseas civilian and military ballots to arrive as late as ten days after. And that’s a pretty typical deadline nationwide.

Yes, it would be nice to get near complete results on election night the way most other states do, and they way we used to get here in Washington state before mail-in ballots started to dominate our voting, but this is the nature of mail-in elections. It takes time and resources to sort, process and verify signatures just in preparation for counting, and so we’ll never approach the sort of election night returns the likes of Reed, Gov. Gregoire and the Seattle Times editorial board apparently want. They sure don’t do it Oregon, even with their received by deadline.

Personally, I’d rather we get the count right, than fast. And I’m not sure I’m willing spend the extra money necessary to do both, let alone disenfranchise tens of thousands of late voters in the process.

Ross Reynolds will be talking with Secretary of State Sam Reed and Rep. Sam Hunt sometime between 12:20 and 12:40 PM today on KUOW’s The Conversation, about the ballot deadline debate, and since I’ve been covering it so obsessively they’re gonna give me a couple minutes to respond before going to the phones.

I’ll have updated data to share with readers and listeners at that time.

UPDATE:
Well, for whatever reason, they didn’t get to me, which is too bad because Sam Reed was wrong or misleading on several facts.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Sean Hannity Uses Glenn Beck’s Protest Footage
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Fake News, magically making trees grow back their leaves in late Autumn. Supporting Fake News channel is an unnatural act in more ways than one. Their fraud knows no limits.

UPDATE Nov. 12 10:45 AM– Sean Hannity has admitted he was wrong and has apologized.

I just finished listening to KUOW’s broadcast of a special Veteran’s Day edition of BackStory… one of my favorite public radio shows. The episode, “Coming Home: A History of War Veterans,” along with links to additional material is available from the BackStory website, or you can just listen to it below.

[audio:http://www.backstoryradio.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/Coming-Home-A-History-of-War-Veter.mp3]