When Gov. Christine Gregoire signs same-sex marriage into law the week after next, Washington state will be catching up to that uber-liberal state known as Iowa.
So when they heard the news, the Des Moines chapter of Drinking Liberally couldn’t resist teasing us a bit at the same time they sent a congratulatory message:
Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.
There are three new state head-to-head polls in the Obama—Romney match up since my previous analysis. All three states are important.
The Florida poll offers Obama a +8% edge over Romney. In Missouri, Obama and Romney are tied at 45%, and in Ohio Obama leads Romney by +7%.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| FL | Marist | 25-Jan | 27-Jan | 2795 | 1.9 | 49 | 41 | O+8 |
| MO | PPP | 27-Jan | 29-Jan | 582 | 4.1 | 45 | 45 | tie |
| OH | PPP | 28-Jan | 29-Jan | 820 | 3.4 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
All three polls reflect improvements over the previous poll in each state for Obama. It’s hard to tell if the improvements are a bump from Obama’s State of the Union address, a genuine lasting shift in public opinion, or whether voters are simply tiring of the Republican brawl.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,439 times and Romney wins 561 times (including the 30 ties).
Obama would have a 99.4% probability of winning an election held now, an improvement over his 95.1% probability in the previous analysis.
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.4% probability of winning | 0.6% probability of winning |
| Mean of 332 electoral votes | Mean of 206 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
– Reproductive Health and Rights Lobby Day
– Darryl noted the state senate passing the marriage equality bill. Andrew has more details including the roll call.
– And a couple bad bills fail to make it to the floor.
– In other states: Do not let the media silence fool you: Hoosiers are making noise.
– Republican Jesus supports Mitt Romney.
Senate Bill 6239 that legalizes same-sex marriage, passed tonight.
The Senate was the big hurdle for this bill, pushed by Gov. Christine Gregoire as part of her final agenda as Governor.
The bill passed 28 to 21. That’s quite a shift from two weeks ago, when only 23 Senators publicly supported it.
Sen. Ed Murray, who has fought for many years to end discrimination against same-sex couples, will now get married to his long-time partner, Michael Shiosaki.
Congrats, guys!
I’d like to follow up on Darryl’s piece about Darcy Burner’s polling. Specifically going after the unelectable meme. That she’s “some kind of ultra-liberal Daily Kos Manchurian Candidate destined to be an also-ran.” Darryl does good work dispelling it.
Leaving aside the Kos thing, I think you have to say that the most important factor going forward in the first is whatever Democrat gets through is going to have to earn it. The district isn’t a gimmie for anyone; it’s rather large and neither party can hold a claim to it. So I think whoever works hardest and can present a compelling vision to the voters will win.
But here’s the interesting thing to me: All of that also applies to the newly created 10th district, and many of the people who are opposed to Darcy Burner because she lost a tough race don’t seem to have any problem with Denny Heck running again. Many of the same people criticizing Burner are calling the district centered around suburban-exurban Pierce and Thurston Counties the “Denny Heck District.”
Now, it’s probably a moderately Democratic district, and one Heck should be able to win if he works hard and presents the right message. Problem is, he’s already lost in a district like that, and unlike with Burner it wasn’t to an incumbent. To be clear, I think Heck can win the 10th and Burner or any Democrat can win the 1st. But I wonder why the narratives are so different between the two of them.
By “Romney family member,” I mean the Romeny’s former family dog, an Irish Setter named Seamus.
Seamus achieved fame and glory during the 2008 presidential campaign cycle after one of Romney’s sons told a treasured family story:
In June 2007 the Boston Globe reported that in 1983, current Republican presidential hopeful (and former Massachusetts governor) Mitt Romney had placed his Irish setter in a dog carrier on the roof of his station wagon for a 12-hour trip to his parents’ cottage on the Canadian shores of Lake Huron. He’d built a windshield for the carrier to make the ride more comfortable for the dog. He’d also made it clear to his five sons that bathroom breaks would be taken only during predetermined stops to gas up the car.
The dog spoiled this plan by letting loose with a bout of diarrhea during its rooftop sojourn, necessitating an unplanned gas station visit for the purpose of hosing down the pooch, its carrier, and the back of the car.
There are now two competing theories on the fate of Seamus. The orthodox theory is that Seamus was eventually given to Mitt’s sister:
The Romneys eventually dealt with Seamus’s apostasy, and nervous stomach, by fobbing him off on Mitt’s sister, Jane, who lived in California and was said to have space for the dog to roam freely, unfettered by straps, crates or station wagons.
And now we have a competing theory:
Mitt Romney may not have told the whole truth about the scandalous tale of his Irish Setter, Seamus, being strapped to the roof of his car during a 12-hour family road trip to Canada. According to a trusted Politicker tipster, two of Mr. Romney’s sons had an off-record conversation with reporters where they revealed the dog ran away when they reached their destination on that infamous journey in 1983.
That’s right…Seamus became a “draft” dodger by running away in Canada.
The Obama campaign uses the incident to draw a distinction between the two men.
The Darcy Burner campaign has released a second in-house poll for WA-1 (and accompanying memo). And it looks very good for Burner on the Democratic side.
Campaigns normally don’t release internal polls unless there is some advantage to doing so. So we’ll look at the positives, and then read between the lines for the rest.
The good new for Burner is that she leads the Democratic pack:
Among primary voters who vote for one of the Democratic candidates on the initial ballot, Darcy Burner currently leads the pack with a decisive lead. Burner leads with nearly half of the vote (45%), followed by Laura Ruderman (15%), Steve Hobbs (13%), Suzan DelBene (12%), Roger Goodman (10%), and Darshan Rauniyar (5%).
More good:
Moreover, Burner is well-regarded among primary election voters who pick a Democratic candidate in the initial ballot. More than half (54%) of these voters have a favorable opinion of Burner, while 9% have an unfavorable opinion. DelBene is less well known, with 21% of voters having a favorable impression of her. Seventeen percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Ruderman. A majority of these Democratic voters have no impression of Ruderman or DelBene, while most are familiar with Burner.
The findings are consistent with the previous internal poll released by the Burner campaign.
What these numbers tell us is that, contrary to certain media naysayer, Darcy is the front-runner among Democrats in this race.
These results debunk, what I’ll call, the Connelly meme, named after the Darcy Burner naysayer-in-chief, SeattlePI.com’s Joel Connelly. Joel has, of late, has made something of a specialization in portraying Burner as an outside interloper—as some kind of ultra-liberal Daily Kos Manchurian Candidate destined to be an also-ran. The Connelly meme is bullshit.
The new poll results bode well for Darcy Burner in a Democratic primary race.
Unfortunately, Washington state doesn’t have a Democratic primary. Rather, we have this top-two primary. And that brings me to what this poll doesn’t tell us.
Take a look at the poll methods:
These findings are based on 504 telephone interviews with a random sample of likely 2012 primary election voters in Washington’s new 1st Congressional District. Interviews were conducted from January 23-26, 2012. Sampling error is +/- 4.4%.
What we never learn is how many of the 504 interviewees chose to not select one of the Democratic candidates. There were two Republican candidates in the race when the poll was taken (one has since dropped out), yet we don’t see numbers for these candidates, or an “other” category if the pollster made a (dubious) decision to not name Republican candidates as well.
The absence of reporting on the Republican (or “other”) tally in a poll of “likely 2012 primary voters” is telling. It suggests to me that the “votes” for non-Democrats matched or exceeded those for the Democratic candidates. That is, the numbers don’t make Darcy look strong enough in a general election that the campaign was willing to release ’em.
The numbers support the idea that Darcy is the Democratic front-runner, but it leaves me feeling a little bit nervous about the prospects that any Democrat will be taking the district.
I look forward to seeing some independent polling in the race.
Florida handles its elections the way Seattle handles its snowstorms. They know that big ones happen every few years, but they never seem prepared for them. I’m still at the office, but will be leaving in the next hour for the Ale House where I plan to live blog with Darryl. I’ll also likely be getting updates from my old college roommate, Dan, a former Republican living in Miami who’s been complaining to me this week that he’s needed a Hazmat suit to open his mailbox.
This is an open thread…
[4:40] One other thing that Dan mentioned was that the Cuban community refers to Ron Paul as “El Loco”. El Loco seems to be getting about 7% of the votes counted so far.
[5:22] Finally at the Ale House only to find out that Darryl fucked up the Live blog plan. Jeez.
[5:26] No sound on the TV. It’s set to CNN, so it’s not necessary.
[5:31] Romney won this thing in a landslide, but Newt won among white evangelicals, once again demonstrating that morally repulsive infidelity can be forgiven by the religious right as long as you act like an entitled asshole whenever asked about it.
[5:34] Romney is speaking. I can’t hear it, but I’m guessing he’s firing people on his staff, just out of habit.
[5:37] In re: to Darryl. But I regret both votes equally! Consistency!
[5:52] Rick Santorum being interviewed in Las Vegas where he’s already preparing for his 4th place finish there.
[5:53] I swear to god, I’ve known Darryl for 8 years, but if he shaved his beard, I’d never recognize him.
[6:01] How Ron Paul could have a huge win in Virginia.
[6:07] Newt waddles to the podium. Every Democrat in the country quietly cheers him on.
[6:12] Yep
[6:18] For once, the most cartoonish thing happening in Orlando is not at Disney World.
[6:20] Newt just dominated the panhandle. If the rest of the south votes that way, there will be a lot of disappointed southerners when Mitt is nominated.
[6:22] Darryl is listening to NPR now on his giant headphones. I’m no longer in contention for the biggest geek in the bar. I concede.
[6:24] Carl just walked in. He’s rocking a good beard too, in about 10 years, it could look as good as Darryl’s.
[6:25] Carl: “Does this mean we’re not going to have a moon colony?”
[6:36] Ron Paul speaking in Nevada. That state could be interesting. Both Romney and Paul beat McCain there in 2008.
[6:46] Without sound, I have no idea what John King is doing. Is he predicting a Ron Paul win in Washington?
[6:49] Dan has surfaced in the comments. Hey man, this is for you.
[6:57] Dan explains why Mitt won and why one of the nation’s most notorious white collar criminals is now their governor.
[7:02] Romney did really well with Latino voters. Unfortunately for him, Florida is the only state where Latinos vote for Republicans.
[7:04] N in Seattle is here. All we need is Goldy for the full HA.
[7:05] Will Kelley-Kamp is now here too. Sweet. Live-blogging is likely to slow to a crawl here…
[7:11] Dammit Darryl!! Fix this!
[7:18] I want to send Will to Iran. He needs $3,000. Make your pledges now!
[7:31] Just chatting with Will about how insane it is that Ralph Reed still goes on TV as a representative of the religious right. If Jesus were alive today, I doubt he’d be able to turn the other cheek on that crook.
[7:47] That’s it for me. Will is doing stand-up on Monday nights at Seattle Comedy Underground. It’s $5 for two hours of comedy. Come check him out and say you’re there to see Will Kelley.
It’s a clusterfuck down there. But somehow you just can’t help but gawk at the carnage.
Yep…we’re talking Florida, where Mitt Romney is prepared to slam Newt Gingrich to the matt—revenge for South Carolina.
I’m at the Montlake Alehouse, and maybe Lee and Carl will show up and partake of the live-gawking.
Have at it in the comment threads.
5:00: CNN just called it for Mitt Romney, 48% to Gingrich’s 31%, Santorum’s 13%, and Paul’s 7%. 56% of the vote is in, so that pretty much seals the deal. No Iowa repeat here, folks.
5:01: That was fast.
5:04: Is the race over? Is Romney the nominee? My inclination is to say, “yes”. I’ve been saying that for awhile. But then some ground truth emerges….
5:05: New polls released today:
It ain’t over yet!
5:11: Don’t forget about the Oregon special election tonight. We’ll be anxiously awaiting those results.
5:22: Okay…so Lee is here and he started a competing thread to liveblog the results. This has now become an HA primary contest. Who will get the most comments? Just to be a good sport, I put his post on top. See what a great guy and good sport I am? Please leave a comment HERE if you agree.
5:32: Lee writes, “Finally at the Ale House only to find out that Darryl fucked up the Live blog plan.” Oh, man, after all Lee and I have been through. I feel just like Dominic.
5:35: As long as we are engaging in negative campaigning here, I though I would point out that in 2004, Lee voted for Dino Rossi. But voted for Gregoire in 2008. What a flip-flopper!
5:59: The next primary event is the Nevada caucus. Most of last year, Romney has led Gingrich by double digits in Nevada. That was through last October. The only more recent poll is this poll taken in mid-December. That poll has Romney leading Gingrich by +4%. Nevada may end up being more interesting than Florida!
6:04: As my opponent (Lee) mentions, the sound is off on CNN here at the Montlake Alehouse. We just had about 30 minutes of Santorum on the screen. What the fuck, CNN? That’s just disgusting!
6:06: Even though I am watching CNN, I am listening to NPR. Reporter in Florida just points out what a big win this is, “It’s the first state where [Romney] doesn’t have a house in the state or where he governed the neighboring state.”
6:08: Lee responds to the previous comment: “He doesn’t have a house in Florida?!?
6:10: Newt takes the stage, but more importantly, I see three comments on this thread and two on Lee’s thread. You LIKE ME! You REALLY LIKE ME!!!
6:11: There are two great things about Newt being in the race. First, he is one nasty motherfucker. Second, he has tons of baggage. When Newt first started boasting about running (in Dec 2010), I wrote:
But mostly it [a Gingrich run] would be fun for the memories: Contract with America, government shutdown, impeachment over a blow job. And there is, of course, that scarcely explored aspect of Newt life: his marriages:
Gingrich has been married three times. In 1962, he married Jackie Battley, his former high school geometry teacher, when he was 19 years old and she was 26. They had two daughters. In the spring of 1980, Gingrich left Battley after having an affair with Marianne Ginther. According to Battley, Gingrich visited her while she was in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery to discuss the details of their divorce. Six months after it was final, Gingrich wed Ginther in 1981.
In the mid-1990s, Gingrich began an affair with House of Representatives staffer Callista Bisek, who is 23 years his junior; they continued their affair during the Lewinsky scandal. In 2000, Gingrich married Bisek shortly after his divorce from second wife Ginther.
The blogosphere really hasn’t had the opportunity to explore this side of Gingrich’s life. It’s fucking gold!
6:31: What I REALLY want to know is what Roger Rabbit thinks of tonight’s events. And yesterday’s. And maybe the entire week before. Roger?
6:34: Carl Ballard is here. He notices that at the Ron Paul speech there are three guys on stage…one with a bow tie, one with a regular tie, and one with no tie whatsoever. And they say there is no diversity amongst Republicans.
6:38: At least Ron Paul isn’t wearing a fucking sweater vest. (Carl is.)
6:46: The TeeVee tells me that “there are eight Santorum delegates.” Word to the wise: Be careful if you use the words “eight Santorum” in a conversation.
7:08: Damn! Lee is kicking my ass. But somehow his post got pushed back…. Clearly WE’VE BEEN HACKED!
7:12: Let’s see…we have me, Lee, N In Seattle, Carl Ballard, and Will showed up recently…Goldy is supposed to show up soon. The Montlake Alehouse has become a freakin’ HA class reunion!
7:18: Carl here. I’m not endorsing in this thread, but I’m opposed to typing on Darryl’s tiny computer. I guess I won’t get my passport stamped “Moon” any time soon.
7:24: Carl still. Rick Santorum is on CNN, and like Ron Paul, he’s also not wearing a tie. What the fuck? You’re on TV guys!
7:46: Darryl here…I’ve wrestled my computer (with its tiny little keyboard) back from Carl Ballard. Right now Seattle Jew is pontificating about Mormon church ownership of The Media. I notice that he speaks with as many typos as he writes with.
7:51: Goldy finally arrives. I guess the folks at The Stranger are done wringing whatever use they can get out him tonight to increase their page views.
8:15: Oregon Special Election: OR-1:
Please join us Tuesday for another evening of Politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
This Tuesday we’ll be rubbernecking the G.O.P. Florida presidential primary clusterfuck returns—I’ll be helping to live blog the mayhem.
The other election of interest is the special election in OR-1, the seat formerly held by Rep. David Wu (D). Former state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici (D) is likely to defeat her Republican opponent Rob Cornilles.
DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00 pm, but this week some of us will be there early for the Florida presidential primary polls results that should begin at 5:00 pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle? There’s also a meeting Tuesday night of the Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking Liberally. The Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday. And next Monday, there are meetings of the Olympia chapter, the Yakima chapter, and the South Bellevue chapter.
With 225 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
– The Florida Primary is today, and in an effort to continuously provide a counterweight to the insightful political prognostication on this website, here’s my prediction:
Mittenz: 39
Ging-rich: 35
Ricky S 14
These are pretty much just pulled outa my ass.
– The most shocking thing to me is the Starbucks.
– HA alum Goldy truth needles the Truth Needle
– Obama fist bumps.
In case you haven’t noticed, I love collecting and analyzing polls—they tell me the score in the game of politics. Like I did in 2008, this year I’ll collect polls and do analyses for the presidential races, the Senate races, and the gubernatorial races.
What I won’t do (with a few exceptions) is analyze races from the House of Representatives.
Why ignore House polls? Because there are too damn many House races and too few polls released for them. That’s why.
Seriously, this is a hobby, and I can hardly keep track of the relatively small number of Senate and gubernatorial races without having to keep track of an additional 435 House races. Instead, I follow a few races of interest, mostly from Washington state. And I follow the “generic congressional polls.”
Generic congressional polls ask something like, “If the election for the U.S. House was today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate.”
Empirically, subtle swings in the results of these polls seem to be amplified into larger electoral swings. They somehow capture the mood of the electorate.
For the past year there have been over 80 generic congressional polls taken on a national sample. Here is what they look like in aggregate over the past year:
The trend is encouraging for Democrats, who have gone from a deep deficit in late 2010 to what looks like a tie in early 2012.
Notice anything funny about the graph?
Yeah…it’s pretty obvious, isn’t it. The “green” pollster seems to have a (roughly) 5% bias in favor of Republicans.
Wanna guess who that pollster is? If you guessed Rasmussen, you’re right. Here are the Rasmussen polls shown alone:
If you are a Republican, perhaps this is the only pollster you watch. If so, then things looked okay until today, when Rasmussen reported for the first time in a year a net advantage for the generic Democratic candidate. But don’t panic, my Republican friend…I mean, it could just be a fluke.
Or not. Here are all the other pollsters except Rasmussen:
If we are to take the collective findings of eight other pollsters over Rasmussen, the generic Democratic House candidate has led the generic Republican House candidate since sometime in August 2011.
In fact, you might say that, without the Rasmussen results, Republicans might have been in a state of panic for the past six months—instead of just the past 12 hours.
I’m not sure if this editorial in the Yakima Herald is pro or anti gay marriage. But the editorial is pro-having Reagan Dunn talk about the issue. Um, fine, I guess. That’s a pretty bold stance that candidates be allowed to express their opinion. But what the hell, this intro?
Reagan Dunn is a Republican trueblood. His first name comes directly from the president whose legacy still dominates the GOP almost a quarter-century after he left office. His mother, the late Jennifer Dunn, was a state party chair in the 1980s and in the 1990s represented the eastern Seattle suburbs as 8th District congresswoman.
Dunn, a King County councilman, would seem the natural party nominee in his bid to succeed fellow Republican Rob McKenna as state attorney general.
Why do things his mother did (including naming him!) count as political bona fides? The only thing that they mention about his time in office is his vote, eventually, for a pro-gay marriage resolution. A non binding resolution. Not the actual policies he’s advanced on the King County Council that might make him a worthwhile potential nominee. Not how he might shape the AG’s office if he got elected. His mother. Wow.
– I honestly don’t know what’s stranger, that this was written at all, or that it was written in late January.
– I’m not sure I’m comfortable calling this the Backpage.com bill since it’s hopefully aimed at them and at anyone else who might pop up.
– An Immorality Tale in Three Acts
– OMG, Indiana.
– Damn you Hollywood values.
Last week’s contest was won by Liberal Scientist. It was the Costa Concordia docked in Palermo, Italy.
This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth. Good luck!
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!