Ballots are being mailed out today. It’s getting close. Are you excited?! Wooooooo, ballots. You should get them this week or early next.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now and get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Bivalent booster, baby!
Neither snow nor rain nor cold nor gloom of smoky nights stays these liberals from the swift consumption of their fermented rounds….or from rounds of vigorous discussion. That’s right, the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight! Stop by if you fancy.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio. Some folks may prefer to stay in the back room of the pub.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Hey, you know what would be great? If there wasn’t so damn much smoke everywhere. And maybe if we we don’t break records in October. Give us a good, hard rainy day. Just a day to get this shit done with. I know, in February, I’ll be done with it, but the fires need putting out. No smoking, Seattle. I don’t want to wear a mask just to go on a walk.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. The bivalent booster is great, and you protect yourself and your community by getting it.
Ali Velshi: The viral political ad women have been waiting for
Seth Meyers: Vice President Harris talks Biden’s marijuana pardons, 2022 midterms and abortion rights
Seth Meyers: Vice President Kamala Harris discusses the next steps for pardoning marijuana possession
Desi Lydic investigates paper shortages affecting upcoming elections
Трамп and His Band of Lying Seditionists:
John Oliver: Crime reporting
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Seth Meyers: FAUX News’ Halloween fearmongering—Hot Tamales, Sugar Daddies
SNL Weekend Update: Political news of the week
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Hey, people with marijuana convictions in King County: The county is still making efforts to clear those convictions from before it was legal. And their budget includes outreach to some of the toughest people to find. It’s good, and it is still producing results a decade on.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. I got boosted and a flu shot at the same time, and my only symptom is that my arm is a bit sore.
SPD behaved so poorly during CHOP that sometimes you forget whole ass portions of it. Reading about the report by the Inspector General, I completely forgot about SPD making up armed checkpoints out of whole cloth. Wild that they want more offers and 0 accountability after that mess.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible. Vaccination rates are low for the bivalent booster, so make an appointment soon.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for a freewheeling discussion of politics and life over a beverage.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Who else is sick of the smoke from the Bolt Creek Fire? It has been more than a month of this disgusting sky. We could all use some rain.
One thing I am surprised by is that so few people are wearing N95 masks in it. Surely we all swimming in them after COVID-19. And they’re free at most drug stores. Just ask for one.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now and get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Stephen: “How about three women?”—Speaker Pelosi looks forward to electing more Female leaders
LegalEagle: The most ridiculous lawsuits ever
John Oliver: Museums and antiquities
WaPo: Five years after #MeToo, here’s why it’s still hard to come forward
Stephen: Biden’s October surprise—Marijuana pardons
Robert Reich: The secret to building grassroots power
Amber Ruffin: Are police in schools doing more harm than good?
Трамп and His Felonious Fans:
Ari Melber: See Трамп-Nixon drug war shredded in epic Peter Tosh breakdown
Liberal Redneck: OPEC, foreign oil, gas prices, etc.
WaPo: What the Michigan midterms means for the future of abortion
Stephen: “No one fucks with a Biden” and Buttigieg claps back at MTG
The Daily Show: The Kamala Harris Veep reboot
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
What the fuck is happening with the King County jail? Jesus, man. Cloudy water? Cloudy water. For a week. It’s so terrible. They are people in our custody, and we have a moral responsibility to do fucking better.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And sign up to get vaccinated or for the bivalent booster right now.
Man. Seattle sports teams. The Mariners breaking the playoff drought. And OL Reign coming in first in the NWSL.
We may ir may not get a Mariners home game in the playoffs. But OL Reign are playing at Lumen Field. And if you haven’t been to one of there games, let me recommend a trip. The crowd is a lot of fun during the regular season, and I imagine it will be even more during the playoffs. The team took a while to get started but have been playing great for a while now.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.
The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.
With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.
Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 47 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 3 | 50 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 0 | 0 | 50 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Weak Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Leans Republican | 5 | 5 | 50 | |
| Strong Republican | 10 | 45 | ||
| Safe Republican | 35 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 9 | 6018 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 1 | 618 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 3 | 2667 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 2 | 2435 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 6 | 3396 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 2.0 | 98.0 | |
| GA | 8 | 7128 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 92.9 | 7.1 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 805 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| IN | 1 | 456 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 35.1 | 64.9 | |
| IA | 1& | 514 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 6.9 | 93.1 | |
| KS | 1 | 784 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.3 | 99.7 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1 | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 2 | 1560 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 5 | 3721 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 15.6 | 84.4 | |
| NH | 7 | 5381 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NY | 2 | 1454 | 62.6 | 37.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 5 | 3603 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 24.3 | 75.7 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 5 | 3698 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 26.9 | 73.1 | |
| OK | 2 | 814 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.4 | 99.6 | |
| OK | 1 | 430 | 39.5 | 60.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| OR | 2 | 1507 | 61.4 | 38.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 9 | 6780 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| SC | 1& | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| UT | 3 | 1198 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 4.7 | 95.3 | |
| VT | 1 | 996 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 94.5 | 5.5 | |
| WA | 5 | 3361 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WI | 8 | 5709 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 18.4 | 81.6 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
This is your weekly reminder that the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally is the place to go to discuss politics over the beverage of your choice. And tonight is the night.
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (2409 10th Ave E, Seattle) starting at 8pm out on the back patio.
Chapters of Living Liberally are all over the place…if you can’t make it to the Seattle chapter, there is probably another nearby chapter for you.
Good morning. Let’s start taking steps to get to a place where we can breach the dams on the Snake River. Excellent for salmon. We’ll have to figure out ways to replace the energy the dams produce. But it’s great to push for.
Rep. Dan Newhouse is opposed to any dam removal because he’s fighting a war on fishing. He wants the Snake River as dead as possible. He hates the recreation and transportation that could be achieved.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Jon Stewart and Friends: Brett Favre and the Mississippi Welfare Scandal
Katie Phang: Upcoming term full of more blockbuster cases
Amber Ruffin: Hillary and Chelsea Clinton
Vice News: Indigenous tribes push back against evangelical missionaries
Now This: How Dolores Huerta continues to inspire immigration activsts
Lewis Black: 100 fucks given
Tales of The Dotard Трамп and Other MAGA Thieves, Liars, and Grifters:
Mehdi Hasan: DACA’s survival again rests in the courts
Amber Ruffin: The Little Mermaid is Black. GET OVER IT!
Vox: Who’s really using up the water in the American West?
Liberal Redneck: Biden’s gaffes
The New York Times: Family caught in immigration battle reaches NYC—“The bus left us here”
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
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