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HA Mormon Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 11/4/12, 7:00 am

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying his Mormon faith.]

Brigham Young, Journal of Discourses 2:182-84
When the Constitution of the United States hangs, as it were, upon a single thread, they will have to call for the “Mormon” Elders to save it from utter destruction; and they will step forth and do it.

Discuss.

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Poll Analysis: Two days of good polls for Obama

by Darryl — Saturday, 11/3/12, 8:35 pm


Obama Romney
98.9% probability of winning 1.1% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis was completed early Friday morning, before most polls were released. The analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes (on average). In an election held yesterday, Obama would be expected to win with a 94.4% probability, and Romney with a 5.6% probability.

There have been 35 new polls released since then that cover 23 “states”. I put states in quotes, because we get polls for ME-1 and ME-2 this batch. Lots of swing states are included in this batch, and they largely come down on the side of Obama:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Field Poll 25-Oct 30-Oct 751 3.6 54 39 O+15
CO PPP 31-Oct 01-Nov 825 — 50 46 O+4
CO SurveyUSA 28-Oct 31-Oct 695 3.8 47 45 O+2
CT PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 1220 2.8 55 42 O+13
FL Mason-Dixon 30-Oct 01-Nov 800 3.5 45 51 R+6
FL Marist 30-Oct 01-Nov 1545 2.5 49 47 O+2
GA 20/20 Insight 29-Oct 31-Oct 1316 2.7 45 52 R+7
HI Civil Beat 24-Oct 26-Oct 1218 2.8 61 34 O+27
IN Howey DePauw 28-Oct 30-Oct 800 3.5 41 51 R+10
IA Gravis Marketing 01-Nov 01-Nov 594 4.0 49 45 O+4
IA Selzer 30-Oct 02-Nov 800 3.5 47 42 O+5
IA Mellman Group 30-Oct 01-Nov 600 4.0 46 44 O+2
ME PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 1633 2.4 55 42 O+13
ME1 PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 817 — 59 39 O+20
ME2 Gravis 01-Nov 02-Nov 509 4.3 50 47 O+3
ME2 PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 816 — 51 46 O+5
MA PPP 01-Nov 02-Nov 1089 3.0 57 42 O+15
MA Kimball 31-Oct 01-Nov 761 3.5 54.0 41.4 O+12.6
MI PPP 01-Nov 03-Nov 700 3.7 52 46 O+6
MI Rasmussen 01-Nov 01-Nov 750 4.0 52 47 O+5
MI Grove Insight 31-Oct 01-Nov 500 4.4 48 41 O+7
MN PPP 31-Oct 01-Nov 772 — 53 44 O+9
NE WeAskAmerica 01-Nov 01-Nov 1178 3.0 41 54 R+13
NV Mellman Group 29-Oct 31-Oct 600 4.0 50 44 O+6
NH Gravis Marketing 01-Nov 01-Nov 497 4.3 50 49 O+1
NH New England Collage 29-Oct 31-Oct 1017 3.7 49.5 44.4 O+5.1
OH Rasmussen 01-Nov 01-Nov 750 4.0 49 49 tie
OH Marist 31-Oct 01-Nov 971 3.1 51 45 O+6
OH CNN/OR 30-Oct 01-Nov 796 3.5 50 47 O+3
OH WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 01-Nov 1649 3.0 50.2 45.8 O+4.4
OR PPP 31-Oct 01-Nov 921 — 52 46 O+6
SD Neilson Brothers 28-Oct 31-Oct 634 3.9 42 50 R+8
UT Dan Jones 26-Oct 01-Nov 870 3.4 26 69 R+43
VA WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 01-Nov 1069 3.0 48.5 47.6 O+0.9
WI WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 01-Nov 1210 3.0 51.5 44.8 O+6.7

Both new Colorado polls offer Obama slim margins over Romney. With five current polls splitting 4 to 1 for Obama, the analysis gives Obama an 81% probability of taking the state.

We get one Florida poll for each candidate, but Romney gets the net benefit. The current polls split 3 to 2 in favor of Romney, giving the G.O.P. nominee about 2/3 probability of taking the state.

All three new Iowa polls go to Obama, who also takes 6 of 7 current polls.

Maine-2 was considered a swing “state”, but both new polls go to Obama. Together the suggest Obama has a 87% chance of taking ME-2’s single electoral vote.

Three new Michigan polls give modest leads to Obama. The President takes all five current polls, suggesting a very high probability of taking the state.

The new Minnesota poll is pretty solid for Obama, who ends up with a high probability of winning the state.

The new Nevada poll puts Obama over Romney by a modest +6%. As it happens, that’s the only poll that falls in the current poll window. It suggests Obama would win the state now with a 86% probability.

Obama leads in two new New Hampshire polls. One gives Obama a slim +1% and the other gives him a +5.1%. All four current polls go to Obama and he looks to have an 88% probability of taking the state now.

Four of five new Ohio polls go to Obama, the fifth is a tie. We now have eleven polls taken in the past week, and Obama leads in nine; Romney leads in one. If the election was held now, Obama would take the state with a 97% probabililty.

In Virginia, Obama squeaks out a +0.9% lead. It is the only current poll, so Obama comes away with a 58% probability of winning, based on this evidence.

Obama gets a modest +6.7% in the new Wisconsin poll. Now he leads in four of five current polls, with the fifth poll being a tie. In the analysis, Obama won just under 100% of the simulated elections.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,915 times and Romney wins 1,085 times (including the 66 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 (+7) to Romney’s 229 (-7) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.9% (+4.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.1% (-4.5%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03 Nov 2011 to 03 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza

by Darryl — Friday, 11/2/12, 11:21 pm

Washington Senators for Washington:

Young Turks: Republican’s War on Math.

Maddow: End of campaign bluster.

White House: West Wing Week.

Willard (and Friends):

  • Liberal Viewer: Should Mr. Burns endorse Mitt Romney?
  • SlateTV: Chrysler refutes Ohio Romney ad
  • Young Paul Ryan.
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney’s change.
  • Mitt Romney is autistic:

SlateTV: Why don’t we get rid of the electoral college.

Schoolhouse Rock: Election Rock, with conspiracy theories.

Young Turks: debate audience laugh at Michele Bachmann.

Cock-block the Vote.

Roy Zimmerman: I’m in:

Politics of Disaster:

  • Ann Telnaes: Romney’s all wet..
  • Sam Seder: Occupy Sandy….
  • Young Turks: Mitt v. Climate change.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt Romney implies hurricane Sandy recovery just like cleaning up HS football celebration
  • SlateTV: Chris Christie can’t stop praising Obama.
  • Mark Fiore: The Emergency Private Sector Alert System.
  • Sam Seder: FEMA + Romney Administration = Disaster
  • Stephen: Hurricane Sandy nightmare

Political Kombat ’12: Obama vs Romney.

Maddow: States with weird election laws.

Thom with the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Jon: Dystopian hellscape that Is Ohio.

Liberal Viewer: Romney stung by repeating a FAUX News lie in debate.

Letterman: VP Joe does the top-10 on voting early.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Glad We Can Help

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 11/2/12, 6:30 pm

Mike O’Brien has the story of Seattle City Light helping out in the wake of Sandy.

Seattle City Light, our local publicly-owned utility, is sending 18 linemen, their trucks and all their gear out to Long Island, NY to help restore power in the aftermath of Sandy. I am incredibly proud of our utility for finding a way to help out.

Many utilities across the country are lending a hand. I am especially proud of City Light for not only sending staff, but also finding a way to send the critical equipment they need to be most effective in the relief effort. City Light has been working hard all week to find a way to help and it paid off. This weekend, City Light crews are catching a ride with the U.S. Air Force to the storm ravaged area where millions are without power and heat.

It’s not very efficient to send the trucks and workers to help, so I’m sure there are some run-everything-like-a-business-I-don’t-want-my-utility-bill-going-to-that people out there. But I’m glad they’re helping. And I’m proud that my utility bill is going to help pay for that.

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Poll Analysis: Obama gains

by Darryl — Friday, 11/2/12, 12:17 pm


Obama Romney
94.4% probability of winning 5.6% probability of winning
Mean of 302 electoral votes Mean of 236 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Obama has made a big jump in his chances to be reelected with this new analysis.

A couple of things. This analysis only includes polls through early Friday morning. Also, I am using a 7-day “current poll” window at this point in the race. Third, after missing most of the week, I cannot go through the state-by-state polls today. And last, there are some older polls I’ve added but not included in this list. The list may also exclude one or two new polls. You can always see what polls are used for each state from the big state table below.

Here are (most of) the new polls I’ve included:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1246 2.9 50.1 46.7 O+3.4
CO Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 750 4.0 47 50 R+3
CO CNN/OR 26-Oct 31-Oct 764 3.5 50 48 O+2
FL WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1146 3.0 48.9 49.8 R+0.9
FL Gravis Marketing 30-Oct 30-Oct 549 4.2 47 50 R+3
FL PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 687 3.7 49 48 O+1
FL CNN/OR 25-Oct 28-Oct 770 3.5 48 48 tie
FL SurveyUSA 25-Oct 27-Oct 595 4.1 47.1 47.1 tie
GA SurveyUSA 25-Oct 28-Oct 574 4.2 43.7 52.0 R+8.3
IL WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1198 3.0 57 41 O+16
IN Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 753 — 42.2 55.4 R+13.1
IA Rasmussen 30-Oct 30-Oct 750 4.0 48 49 R+1
IA WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1174 3.0 48.8 47.3 O+1.5
IA PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 676 3.8 50 45 O+5
IA Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1142 3.0 50 44 O+6
MA Suffolk 25-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 63.0 31.2 O+31.8
MA Boston Globe 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 56 39 O+17
MA UNH 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 52 38 O+14
MI Glengarif Group 27-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 47.5 45.0 O+2.5
MI EPIC/MRA 26-Oct 29-Oct 600 4.0 48 42 O+6
MN SurveyUSA 26-Oct 28-Oct 574 4.2 50 43 O+7
MO WeAskAmerica 30-Oct 30-Oct 1217 2.9 42.2 53.8 R+11.6
MT Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 799 — 42.7 50.4 R+7.8
NE Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 761 — 38.8 58.1 R+19.3
NE2 Wiese Res 23-Oct 25-Oct 679 3.8 44 49 R+5
NV SurveyUSA 23-Oct 29-Oct 1212 2.9 50 46 O+4
NH Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1013 3.0 49 47 O+2
NC PPP 29-Oct 31-Oct 730 3.6 49 49 tie
NC SurveyUSA 26-Oct 28-Oct 628 3.8 45 50 R+5
ND Mason-Dixon 26-Oct 28-Oct 625 4.0 40 54 R+14
ND Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 752 — 37.8 54.7 R+16.9
OH PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 600 4.0 50 45 O+5
OH Ohio Poll 25-Oct 30-Oct 1182 2.9 48 46 O+2
OH SurveyUSA 26-Oct 29-Oct 603 4.1 47.5 44.9 O+2.6
OH Pharos 26-Oct 28-Oct 765 — 49.0 46.3 O+2.7
OH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 718 3.7 51 47 O+4
OR Elway 25-Oct 28-Oct 405 5.0 47 41 O+6
OR Hoffman Res 24-Oct 25-Oct 615 — 47 42 O+5
PA Keystone Poll 23-Oct 28-Oct 547 4.2 49 45 O+4
RI WPRI 24-Oct 27-Oct 601 4.0 54 33 O+21
TX U TX 15-Oct 21-Oct 800 3.5 39 55 R+16
VA Gravis Marketing 26-Oct 26-Oct 625 3.9 48 48 tie
VA Quinnipiac 23-Oct 28-Oct 1074 3.0 49 47 O+2
VA Roanoke College 23-Oct 26-Oct 638 4.0 44 49 R+5
WA SurveyUSA 28-Oct 31-Oct 555 4.2 54 40 O+14
WA Washington Poll 18-Oct 31-Oct 632 3.9 56.4 35.9 O+20.5
WI PPP 29-Oct 30-Oct 825 3.4 50 45 O+5
WI Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 750 4.0 49 49 tie
WI Marist 28-Oct 29-Oct 1065 3.0 49 46 O+3
WI St. Nobert 25-Oct 29-Oct 1065 5.0 51 42 O+9
WI Marquette 25-Oct 28-Oct 1243 2.8 51 43 O+8

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 94,381 times and Romney wins 5,619 times (including the 384 ties). Obama received (on average) 302 to Romney’s 236 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 94.4% probability of winning and Romney would have a 5.6% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2011 to 02 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Open Thread 11/2

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 11/2/12, 8:00 am

– On our last blog, Lee and I used to make fun of right wingers. Matt Manweller was on the top of the list. And ick for ever to that guy.

– Melissa McEwan’s take on the John Koster story.

– Seattle’s plans for the storm season.

– Being wrong is the most important thing for conservative pundits.

– It’s a better world.

– I didn’t know anything about assassin bugs before reading this post.

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No Joy in Those Numbers

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 11/1/12, 7:01 pm

I’m a pretty harsh critic of The Seattle Times. I think their coverage is more biased for a corporate status quo than they’ll care to admit and their editorials are sloppy and often off the mark. And with the ad for McKenna, they’ve put their partisanship on display.

But I don’t get any joy from their declining circulation numbers. For the best corrective to the Seattle Times’ sloppy efforts is better competition. When I read that they’d fallen off of the top 25 papers in the country, I thought of George Orwell’s lament at the end of World War Two that London only had 12 daily papers.

It is only when there are large numbers of newspapers, expressing all tendencies, that there is some chance of getting at the truth. Counting evenings, London has only twelve daily papers, and they cover the whole of the south of England and penetrate as far north as Glasgow. When they all decide to tell the same lie, there is no minority press to act as a check. In pre-war France the press was largely venal and scurrilous, but you could dig more news out of it than out of the British press, because every political faction had its paper and every viewpoint got a hearing.

Of course people get their news from the Internet now and from TV more than they did back then. But the biggest problem with TV news, with the Seattle Times, and most other daily papers in the region, is that they’re reporting from a similar perspective.

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Not quite dead yet

by Darryl — Thursday, 11/1/12, 1:31 pm

Well, it’s been something of a rough week for me. But I am mostly recovered now, I’ve been off narcotics for almost a day, and I’ll likely be discharged this evening.

With any luck, I’ll do a new poll analysis by late this evening or tomorrow morning. I’ve entered most of the polls up through yesterday, but since they were entered under the influence of morphine, I’ll have some error checking to do.

Oh…and sorry about Kentucky thing. That’s the kind of error I usually find before posting, typically while writing up the summary of polls. But I skipped all that to get up what I figured to be the last analysis for awhile.

Just looking at the polls that have come in, I see no big shake-ups. I expect Obama will still be above a 90% probability of winning and somewhere around a mean of 300 electoral votes.

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The Rape Thing

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 10/31/12, 7:15 pm

I thought I might be all out of what the fucks this campaign season. Especially after the shitty hurricane coverage. But there’s still at least one more. What the fuck, John Koster?

Koster: “When a mother’s life in in danger. I’m not going to make that decision. You know, I know they go out and… incest is so rare, I mean, it’s so rare. But the rape thing…you know, I know a woman who was raped and kept her child, gave it up for adoption, she doesn’t regret it. In fact, she’s a big pro-life proponent. But on the rape thing, it’s like, how does putting more violence onto a woman’s body and taking the life of an innocent child that’s a consequence of this crime, how does that make it better? You know what I mean?”

First off, if that story is true it doesn’t really change the facts for the women who get an abortion after being raped. If a woman decides to have a kid after being raped, I want to live in a society that respects that. But society should have just as much respect for a woman who doesn’t want to bring her rapist’s child into the world.

Now I think all women should be able to make that decision for themselves under any circumstances. But it’s tough to imagine that a person wouldn’t feel a little compassion sneak in when we’re talking about rape victims.

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Open Thread 10/31

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 10/31/12, 8:05 am

– Aside from the anti-bus one, I like these reasons to bike to work.

– I’m not an evangelical, and we live in a secular society is a better response on policy than to tell them what they should believe about religion. But the relatively recent change to opposition to abortion in the evangelical community is pretty fascinating.

– Good for Italy.

– Bogus photos, however, are a strange new form of popular expression attached to unfolding crises, hovering somewhere on the boundary between art and commentary.

– Obviously, it’s limited in geography and scope, but I think the MTA Flickr had the best pictures.

– When I was in England and people would ask me why people call it football, I would tell them it was because the ball was shaped like a foot. I like this answer better.

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This Asshole Again?

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 10/30/12, 9:01 pm

I don’t care how desperate you are for a local angle on the biggest story right now. If the story you’ve decided to write is What does Michael Brown think of Sandy (h/t) you’re writing the wrong goddamn story. I mean maybe if you preface it with, and do the opposite of what this fucker says.

Seriously, after his monumental fuckup in the wake of Katrina why the hell would you ask his opinion if you had a hangnail? Honestly.

Also, even if you didn’t know it was this fucker, that’s really terrible advice. Obama is being too prepared for a disaster and Something something Benghazi.

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Why Does Mark Halperin Still Have a Job?

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 10/30/12, 5:12 pm

Seriously. It’s cheap enough to be like “storm good for candidate arrrgh” or “Storm Bad for candidate!” But to be both for no real reason other than to just have something to say? Boo.

And yes, I realize that if you’re a pundit, you have to keep doing punditry. But maybe take a breath or some shit. I don’t know.

Just to be clear, I’m not inherently opposed to tying Sandy to the presidential election. It’s a week away, and Sandy may have an impact. But when there is a disaster, maybe step up your game.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Goldy — Tuesday, 10/30/12, 3:57 pm

Please join us tonight for a special edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally, where we’ll all raise a pint in honor of Darryl’s aging pancreas.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Our gatherings are informal. If you show up and don’t immediately recognize the pack of liberals, ask a bartender or server.

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Poll Analysis: The race is stable

by Darryl — Monday, 10/29/12, 11:09 pm


Obama Romney
95.9% probability of winning 4.1% probability of winning
Mean of 303 electoral votes Mean of 235 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney with a 93.4% to a 6.6% probability of winning an election now. Obama led 294 to 244 electoral votes

Today’s polls through about noon were…

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA LA Times 15-Oct 21-Oct 1440 2.9 54 40 O+14
CO ARG 25-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
FL PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 687 3.7 49 48 O+1
FL CNN/OR 25-Oct 28-Oct 770 3.5 48 48 tie
MD Baltimore Sun 20-Oct 23-Oct 801 3.5 55 36 O+19
MA UNH 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 52 38 O+14
MN Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 800 3.5 47 44 O+3
MO Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 625 4.0 41 54 R+13
NE Wiese Res 23-Oct 25-Oct 679 3.8 40 54 R+14
NH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 874 3.3 49 47 O+2
NJ Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct 25-Oct 601 4.0 51 41 O+10
NM Research & Polling 23-Oct 25-Oct 662 4.0 50 41 O+9
NY SurveyUSA 23-Oct 25-Oct 554 4.1 61.7 32.7 O+28.9
NC Elon 21-Oct 26-Oct 1238 2.8 45.4 45.3 O+0.1
NC Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.5 46 52 R+6
OH Rasmussen 28-Oct 28-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
OH Gravis Marketing 27-Oct 27-Oct 730 3.6 50 49 O+1
OH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 718 3.7 51 47 O+4
OH Cincinnati Enquirer 18-Oct 23-Oct 1015 3.1 49 49 tie
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 49 43 O+6
TN Middle Tennessee State U 16-Oct 21-Oct 609 4.0 59 34 O+25
VA Gravis Marketing 26-Oct 26-Oct 625 3.9 48 48 tie
VA Washington Post 22-Oct 26-Oct 1228 3.5 51 47 O+4

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 95,877 times and Romney wins 4,123 times (including the 363 ties). Obama received (on average) 303 to Romney’s 235 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 95.9% probability of winning and Romney would have a 4.1% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 29 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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My first morphine experience

by Darryl — Monday, 10/29/12, 10:51 pm

Over lunch today, I was putting together a post with the latest election analysis. I started feeling bad. It got worse, and to make a long story short, I ended up in the ER.

The diagnosis is pancreatitis. So, I’ll be in the hospital for a couple of days, receiving morphine for the pain. I will try to finish an abbreviated poll analysis, but it will include only polls through this morning.

Morphine makes me tired.

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