HorsesAss.Org

The next two years of the state Senate are going to be marked by gridlock and division. But after that Rodney Tom is up for reelection. And I can’t believe that in the wake of his Senate shenanigans, that Rodney Tom plans on getting reelected. When he switched parties the first time it was for an election and everyone knew where he stood going forward. It was also a product of the district becoming more Democratic.

The district has continued to become more Democratic since 2006, and I just don’t see a majority of his constituents are backing him up on his giving the GOP control. So if he runs for reelection again, you’ve got to think he’ll lose.

Now maybe I’m reading the tea leaves wrong; It’s been known to happen. Maybe he thinks he can — and maybe he can — win reelection in an off year with a more conservative electorate. Still the party will go after him something fierce, and it’s a Democratic district. And even if he can get reelected, if the Democrats or the Republicans gain seats elsewhere, he’s still going to be sidelined. Maybe he doesn’t plan to run again, and this is him going out on top.

But still, I wonder if he’s thinking of greener pastures. I wonder if he’s planning to run for Congress.

Now, I know that sounds wrong, but hear me out: I assume he’s still in the 1st district. And we know he wants to be in Congress since he has run before. So maybe he thinks he can present himself as a moderate alternative to DelBene (never mind that she’s quite moderate herself).

I think it would go one of two ways: if the GOP are willing to clear the deck for him, he runs as an R. He hopes to get moderate Democratic votes (again DelBene should get moderate Dem votes since she’s a moderate Democrat) and all the Republican ones. If the GOP lets whoever run, he hopes there are a lot of Republicans and runs as a Democrat hoping to squeak through the top two and then in the general get all the Republican votes and some confused Democrats.

It’s a long shot, and DelBene still has the advantages of incumbency, a lot of her own money to spend if it gets close, and the qualities that got her elected in the first place. But I can’t imagine Rodney Tom sticking around the legislature.

The Washington Post is updating its list of best state-based political blogs…something I didn’t know existed until I stumbled across the nominations post.

So if you want to nominate some blog as a “best state-based political blog”, please feel free to do so using the web form at the bottom of this page. Alternatively, click here to submit your nomination via Twitter (keep the hash tag in there).

– The skeet shooting story is maybe the dumbest story the supposedly mainstream media have picked up about Obama. But nothing will keep the right wingers from making up nonsense about it going forward.

– Better moderation in The Seattle Times’ comments would probably be better than someone complaining that they exist on his way out the door.

– Fractions of a million dollars still seems like a lot of money to spout nonsense.

– I thought Washington’s legislators went off the rails. We’ve got nothing on Idaho!

– YOU are a computer criminal!

Last week’s contest was won by Geoduck. It was in Saltsjobaden, Sweden, where a woman stole a train and drove it into an apartment building.

This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!

Ephesians 6:5
Slaves, obey your earthly masters with respect and fear, and with sincerity of heart, just as you would obey Christ.

Discuss.

Thom: Is Gov. Rick Snyder (R-MI) lying about election rigging?

Obama speaks on immigration reform.

Hagel-ing:

• Sam Seder: Sen. McCain desperately seeking vindication for his Iraq war position.
• Maddow: McCain tries to use Hagel to justify his Iraq war position.
• Ed: The GOP’s total disrespect for a war hero
• Maddow: Ted Cruz thinks he is qualified to judge Senators Kerry and Hagel on military issues
• Sam Seder: Ted Cruz goes all Palin on Hagel.

SlateTV: Bloomberg on Joe Biden’s family jewels.

Ed: Latest GOP vote-rigging attempt hits a speed bump.

Stephen on Eric Erickson’s climate change denial (via Crooks and Liars).

Robert Reich: the hoax of “entitlement reform” (via Crooks and Liars).

Mark Fiore: Super Pacs and the Permanent Campaign.

Gun Lobbyists Don’t Kill Legislation, Legislators Kill Legislation:

• Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn on gun buy-back.
• Sam Seder: The NRA enemies list.
• Ann Telnaes: NRA and the gun show loophole.
• Pap: How the gun industry sells mass shootings.
• Thom: Typical school day in NRA utopia.
• Stephen: “Oh, Mississippi!”
• Lawrence O’Donnell: NRA wants women to arm themselves with assault rifles.
• Sam Seder: Young mother’s soothed by assault weapons?!?
• Young Turks: NRA lobbies against its own positions.
• Jon: Skeet-Gate!
• Thom: Why the hell is the NRA at Senate hearings?!?
• Sam Seder: NRA speaks at Senate Hearings

Hillary says “goodbye”.

Sharpton: Colin Powell takes Bill O’Reilly to school over voter fraud.

White House: West Wing Week.

Sharpton: Obama makes progress on his 2nd term agenda.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Palin’ Around With Terrorists:

• Liberal Viewer: Did Tina Fey soften Sarah Palin’s image?
• Sam Seder: Sarah Palin leaves FAUX News.

Bill Gates on education, health and Facebook.

Bill Maher with some new rules, Part I.

Bill Maher with some new rules, Part II.

Young Turks: Republican against voter fraud arrested for voter fraud.

Snohomish County plan to put police in schools.

Stephen learns that Gays are less stressed.

The G.O.P. Makeover Comb over:

• Maddow: The GOP’s War on Women™ continues to rage in Republican states:
• Ann Telnaes: Republican plan for the future.
• Sam Seder: Republicans take lessons to sound less hateful of Latinos
• Young Turks: G.O.P. has lost the culture wars.
• Maddow: Republicans learn to talk, Part I
• Maddow: Republicans learn to talk, Part II
• Alex Wagner: The tug-o-war for the soul of the G.O.P.
• Zina Saunders: Republican control press conference:
• Ed: The G.O.P. doubles down on the 47%

Thom: Why does the pro-life movement align with the pro-death party?

Obama honors America’s top scientists and innovators of 2011.

Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Immigration.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

At least in Seattle, and probably in other municipalities* in Washington, there’s an election February 12. Seattle has 2 levies. They’re an operations and a capital levy. They renew levies that will expire, so it’s not new money. I suspect Seattle will pass it easily, but I’m still mailing mine in. Taking no chances and all that.

If you’re not sure how to vote (and please, vote for them) the voter’s guide is adorable. It’s so tiny, I love it. Itty bitty teeny tiny l’il voter’s guide.

If you didn’t vote in the Presidential election a couple months ago but would like to vote for an operations levy (or if you’ve moved), Monday is the last day to register. You have to do it in person at your county because we can’t adjust to the fact that people use the Internet in 2013. The Secretary of State’s blog has a link to a map of where you can go to register.

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Sen. Rodney Tom (faux D-48) is all about “bipartisan coalitions.” This lede suggests he has been quite an inspiration:

GOP and Democrats unite to fight Rodney Tom’s plan to erase parents’ ability to save for state college tuition through a state program. But the House effort carries a price tag.

I think Sen. Tom has a future filled with such coalitions….

I assume this bill that Pam Roach introduced is just her acting out (h/t).

(1)State employees shall be truthful and forthright when providing information or answering questions related to the scope of their employment, the performance of their duties, and the operations of the agency at which the state employee is employed.

(2) State employees shall be truthful when providing information of any kind.

Oh, see, those state employees who accused me of losing my temper at staff, and the witnesses were clearly lying. Why I’ll write a law that gets them fired if they keep saying things about me. Yeah that’s it.

Senator Roach is probably unaware of the first rule of holes. I mean, given her caucus abandoning her for some time, given the settlement, and given the second case, it’s pretty clear who was lying in that case. I don’t think you’d have even had much disagreement among Republicans until they needed her to make a majority.

Or, perhaps she’s just looking forward to a time when she can ask who moved her roses. And the state employees will have to tell her the truth. Maybe, I guess.

Or come to think of it, she can ask all the state employees who leaked the second report of her abusing staff. If any of them know, they’ll have to give it up or risk disciplinary action. In any event, I’m sure this law will be bad news for whistle-blowing government employees. If that’s a feature or a bug of the law, you can decide for yourself.

One last thing, I see one of the few co-sponsors is Rodney Tom. Makes you wonder if “prefers Democratic Party” counts as not being “truthful and forthright when providing information or answering questions related to the scope of their employment,” when he goes and caucuses with the GOP and votes for their budgets.

– I’m glad the teachers refusing to administer the MAP test is getting national attention.

– This stereotyping is why I’m not comfortable with American elites like Packer and Wills talking about the South. Even if, like Wills, they have southern roots, they ignore the basic fact that racism and right-wing politics are national problems.

– There is nobody more surprised than me that my first reaction to hearing that sequestration might lead to the cancellation of the Blue Angles was “oh, sad.”

– While Hadiya Pendleton went to a good school and was shot in an upper middle class neighborhood not far from the president’s Chicago home, her assailants are reportedly gang members, and the plague of gang violence — which springs from generations of chronic, festering and unanswered urban poverty and violence – has been ignored for too long because it rarely touches the people deemed to matter in our country.

– If there’s a toll, Mercer Island will be the next Alcatraz. You know, you have to pay a modest toll to leave.

Were you aware that rape in the third degree isn’t a crime in Washington if it’s done to a married partner? I was not. I had just assumed that by 2013, someone would have fixed that. Fortunately, Roger Goodman is offering a bill this session to make spousal rape a crime in all circumstances.

Washington is one a handful of states where marriage remains an absolute defense against allegations of some forms of rape and sexual assault, and lawmakers considered a proposal Tuesday that would change that.

House Bill 1108 would remove the spousal exemption from both rape in the third degree – in which no physical force is used – and from taking indecent liberties.

“There is no such thing as legitimate rape,” said Rep. Roger Goodman, D-Kirkland. “We have to get rid of this marital rape exception and catch up with the rest of the country.”

According to the article, he thinks it has a good chance of passage. I hope so, but I don’t see a Senate version (it could be that I missed it, the legislative search isn’t intuitive, at least to me). The Senate has promised no social issues this session, but this is the sort of social issue that the legislature needs to solve, like right fucking now.

So this seems like the sort of bill that public pressure could make sure to push to the governor’s desk. If you want to thank Roger Goodman for sponsoring it, you can here. If you want to find info on the bill, including the other co-sponsors, you can here. If you want to write your legislator, you can find them here. My email to my legislators is below the fold.

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We’ve seen a run on vote rigging attempts in Republican controlled blue states. Republicans in Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania have flirted with, and have had rejected, plans to change their electoral vote allocation from a winner-take-all system to a congressional district allocation system. Republicans in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin are expected to join the fun. (And probably be rejected.)

It makes sense for Republicans to selectively change the state laws in their favor, especially given their excellent job of gerrymandering congressional districts following the 2010 census. Yeah…the voters get fucked, but that never stopped a Republican from power-grabbing.

Changing a handfull of blue states to congressional district allocation, while maintaining the winner-take-all system in red states, would have given Mitt Romney the presidency. Even as the popular vote went to Obama.

With Sen. Rodney Tom’s Republican Senate majority, Washington state has taken it’s first step to becoming a blue state controlled by Republicans. Surprise, surprise…House Republicans are trying to join other Republican-controlled blue states in their Presidential election-rigging effort:

The proposal, House Bill 1091, would divvy up Washington’s electoral votes by results in each of the state’s 10 congressional districts, with the remaining two votes going to the statewide winner.

In 2012, that would have given Obama nine electoral votes from Washington while Romney would have taken three.

Supporters say that would be a fairer result for more conservative parts of the state that are constantly outvoted in statewide elections by the Seattle area.

In one sense, these whining Republicans are correct. Under some conditions, allocating electors by congressional district (with the two additional electors going to the state popular vote winner) is a fairer system than the winner-take-all system. Those conditions are:

• Every state does this, rather than just selected blue states.
• Congressional districts are not gerrymandered. That is, all states have in place a rigorous, non-partisan redistricting process.

Under those conditions, a universal congressional district allocation system is fairer because all but 100 of the 538 electoral votes are allocated by smaller, and thus more representative, voting blocks. That wold be fairer than the current system that has some bizarre artifacts:

The [current] system has the effect of making your vote count a lot more in “swing states” — states where the majority could conceivably vote for either candidate — than in other, more politically predictable states. It is a virtual certainty, for instance, that Georgia will vote for Mitt Romney, so an individual Georgian’s vote for Barack Obama doesn’t mean a lot — Georgia’s 16 electoral votes are going to be cast for Romney. Conversely, an individual voter’s choice for Romney in ultra-blue New York won’t stop that state’s 29 electoral votes from going to Obama.

This raises the questions, what do we mean by a “fairer” system? Here are some ideas:

• A fairer system would give each person’s vote an identical weight in determining the election’s outcome.
• Consequently, a fairer system would elect the winner of the national popular vote.

Democrats remember how unfair it felt when George Bush lost the popular vote, yet became President. And Republicans would have collectively “gone postal” if Mitt Romney had won the popular vote but lost the presidential election.

What I am getting at is that the fairest system of all is to elect the President by popular vote. The system we have now, fails 8.7% of the time (four out of 46 elections where the national popular vote was known) by putting in office the loser of the popular vote.

We used to believe that the only way to change the system to elect the President by popular vote was to amend the Constitution. Now we know better. The National Popular Vote compact system achieves the same thing by letting states exercise their constitutional right to allocate electors as they wish:

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the entire United States. The bill preserves the Electoral College, while ensuring that every vote in every state will matter in every presidential election. The National Popular Vote law has been enacted by states possessing 132 electoral votes — 49% of the 270 electoral votes needed to activate it.

This works when a coalition of states is formed that controls 270 or more electoral votes. Then, by each member state’s law, the slate of presidential electors for the state is elected according to the result of the national popular vote. If the coalition does not control 270 votes, the states revert back to their old system (winner-take-all for most states).

There doesn’t seem to be a downside–unless you believe it’s okay for a candidate to lose the national popular vote and still be elected President. Since the compact makes no changes to the electoral college itself, no Constitutional amendment is necessary.

Back to the Washington state Republicans trying to rig the vote. The new bill, HB 1091, actually does two different things. It changes the way we allocate electors now. It also cancels Washington state’s participation in the interstate compact.

Of course! Why would we expect consistency from Republicans? They were never interested in making the presidential election as fair as possible. They’re only interested in advantaging Republicans.

So sad…Washington state Republicans have still have not shown any ability at true leadership. Fuck ’em. And fuck Rodney Tom for joining ’em.

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. And on Monday, the Aberdeen, Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With over 200 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and two more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

– I’m not thrilled with Hagel, but oh my God, how disingenuous is his GOP opposition?

– Sure, or there’s a more general correlation between seniority and wanting to preserve Senate traditions. And when the next group becomes the senior Democrats they might also be opposed to filibuster reform.

– The worker comp system is designed to help injured workers get back on the job. But the Republicans’ changes only make it harder for middle class workers to regain their health and get back to work.

– The Clinton-Obama interview on 60 Minutes was nice.

– King Tom

– As a last resort, Janet asked me to go with her to get an illegal abortion in Cicero, a suburb of Chicago, known mostly as the birthplace of Al Capone. She’d heard about “the doctor” from her uncle, a lawyer who practiced in Chicago and was the family’s black sheep. Although I wasn’t keen on going, I felt someone needed to accompany her.

– What comes within 1/2 a mile of the coal trains in Seattle (pdf).

I just don’t know what to say:

There was a shooting at Twilight Exit last night.

The gun buyers on surrounding streets underscore the case for Congress and the Washington Legislature to act get cracking on gun safety legislation, McGinn argued. “That’s one of the loopholes we need to close,” he said. “One person can sell another person a gun on the street and it’s absolutely legal. Do you see anybody out there doing a background check?”

Shirley Chambers has lost 4 children to gun violence in Chicago since 1995.

All the soundbites about how it isn’t guns who kill people, and all the victim-blaming that has been and will be heaped on Shirley Chambers and her children, and all the rationalizations about people with mental illness, and all the Othering of poor black people who live in cities, and all the sanctimonious hand-wringing about “cultural degradation,” and all the excuses and justifications and cynical rhetorical flourishes in the world will not change this fact: Shirley Chambers’ children are dead. All of her children are dead.

There is really nothing left to say that hasn’t been said before. I guess it’s once again the wrong time to talk about these things lest we offend some of the worst political actors out there. What we certainly won’t do is stop the next horror. We won’t do anything to stop the time after that or, or, or.