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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleIt’s election night. Please be sure to VOTE, and then join us for some electoral punditry and political prognostication over a pint at tonight’s Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.






Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. The Lakewood chapter meets this Wednesday. For Thursday, the Spokane and Tacoma chapters meet. And on Friday, the Centralia chapter meets.

With 211 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Open Thread 10/5

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– Vote if you haven’t already. The Washington State Democrats want to make sure you do. Remember Seattle, if you don’t vote, the slightly worse candidate might be mayor.

– You don’t say, coal trains cause coal dust? Actually, in all seriousness, these sorts of studies are important, and even if the answer seems obvious, it’s important to have data.

– Construction starts in a few weeks on the seawall.

– Oh look Rachel Maddow mentioned the I-522 campaign:

– So how is it that the US government was caught flat-footed about foreclosuregate? How is it that the UK government was caught off guard by the London Whale and Libor Rate-Rigging scandal? How is it that ANY of the financial shenanigans of the past decade took place and yet there have been few, if any, prosecutions?

– The Parks Legacy Citizens Advisory Committee (PLCAC), appointed to consider Seattle Parks and Recreation’s future funding options, has released a first draft of 37 newly prioritized investment initiatives (funding recommendations) that are being considered for a possible ballot measure in August 2014.

– I’m not sure why zombies are so popular right now, but they can draw in cartography nerds.

Get Out of Your Car

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I like Linda Thomas. I think she’s one of the smartest people doing radio, and I’ve linked positively to her on numerous occasions. But I think there’s a hook she has used in some of her pieces.

You might drive by public art and not realize you paid for it. The Ballard bridge, for example, has eight sculptures attached that represent fish nets, propellers and other aspects of the neighborhood’s history.

And

He walks with a limp along North 105th Street in Seattle at the intersection with Aurora Avenue. He asks motorists stopped at the traffic light, “Could you help me please?” His sign says he’s “severely disabled.” I’ve seen him talk on a cell phone. He often wears Seahawks clothing. That’s all I know about the man who carries a cardboard sign at the same spot every day.

You know, if you’re in a city, one of the nice things is that you can get places outside of your car. I mean maybe not 99 North, but for much of the city, you can walk past people and art. You can get a lot out of Seattle on a bike or on foot, that one of our smartest newspeople thinks it’s natural to miss. I hope for those of us who take advantage of it, being able to get around in non-car ways lets us appreciate the artistic, and natural beauty, as well as seeing more of the people around us.

And I will add that, obviously, I’m not telling anyone how to get from point A to point B in this town. If you want to drive, God bless. And as an able-bodied guy, it often is, or can be perceived to be, safer for me to be on the street than for other people. Still, being on ground level out of a car is a valuable part of city life.

Open Thread 11/4

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– Shelter Beds or Westlake Park

– You know what, I’m sort of coming to the conclusion that I don’t like that Mitt Romney fellow all that much.

– Cascade Bikes is going to make a push for safe routes to parks in a levy in 2014. Here’s a change.org petition if you’re interested.

– The tea party has the same political effect that original Bircherism had — making good and necessary things harder to do. And it has the same human effect — ensnaring the gullible and the fearful in a miserable cocoon of falsehood, fright, indignation and baseless resentment.

– My biggest hope here is that Jay Inslee embarrasses Dori Monson on the basketball court half as much as Monson embarrasses the medium of radio on a daily basis.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Bill Maher with some new rules (via Crooks and Liars).

Maddow: The fight to keep Republicans from tainting scientific climate reports. Part I.
Maddow: The fight to keep Republicans from tainting scientific climate reports. Part II.

Spooky Times:

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Steve Kornacki: The history of Black Senators, Part I.
Steve Kornacki: The history of Black Senators, Part II.

Maddow: How you pay congress to do nothing!

Sharpton with Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA-7): Republicans will say anything about President Obama just to see him fail.

Cruz Mis-sell:

Sam Seder: Seattle’s socialist movement.

Jon has some words for the media: Go fuck yourself.

Thom: Why is the GOP trying to insert the Government into a woman’s uterus?

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News likes bank fraud?!?

The Audacity of Affordable Health Care for Everyone:

Mental Floss: 32 superstition orgins.

Jonathan Mann: Mother Nature is motherfucking scary.

Sam Seder: Rick Santorum reveals that Hollywood is run by Satan!!!

Pap: Teabaggers don’t understand the economy.

Chris Cillizza: Is blocking judges and effective tactic for Republicans?.

Serial Plagerist Rand Paul:

White House: West Wing Week.

Stephen mocks GOP Senators who disapproved of their own previous debt ceiling vote.

Chris Cillizza: The very scary proposition of dead people on the voter roles:

Steve Kornacki: Fifth-year slumps, Obama versus Bush.

Thom: How climate change affects the oceans.

Stephen demands Nevada Assemblyman Jim Wheeler “punch himself in the balls” after slavery comments.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Remembering Tom Foley

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Tom Foley’s memorial service was today. I haven’t had the chance to watch it yet, but if you want you can see it here. I do love the phrase Titan of Democracy; I think that really sums him up.

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee (D) called Foley a “Titan of Democracy” during the service.

“He was a representative of the best the state of Washington had to offer,” added Gov. Inslee.

You can see President Obama’s speech at the DC memorial here. Darryl has already memorialized him here on HA.

Doy, Washington Voted For It

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In a sales tax reliant state where we recently voted privatize and tax the poop out of liquor sales, there are high taxes on hard alcohol. This PI piece seems to forget that we just taxed ourselves, not as punishment to boozehounds, but to replace the revenue that privatization cost the state. You can get booze at your grocery store, but you have to pay higher taxes. It wasn’t a deal that I was comfortable with, but the voters went ahead with it. So, fine.

I would like a little more context than just complaining:

And, when it comes to increasing taxes to fund said government, it’s easier to get people to agree to a sin tax. You know, we’re supposed to feel bad about doing it and thus willing to punish ourselves: Bad drinker! Bad drinker! Barkeep – pour me another one! Also … add in the extra tax burden placed on booze for these first few years of privatization, and you have a recipe for a winning statistic.

There’s a reasonable debate to be had about the level of alcohol taxes we have. I’m just not sure this contributes to that.

Scaling Back SNAP Benefits

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Obviously, as the economy improves, stimulus that was designed to get us out of a caving, crashing recession will have to be scaled back. And of course the things that were set to expire are going to expire, especially with a House of Representatives dead set on anything decent for the Republic. So I guess nobody should be surprised that the expanded SNAP benefits are going to be back to what they were before the stimulus starting tomorrow.

Extra funding for the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, one of the most impactful elements of the 2009 economic stimulus, expires Friday, meaning poor families in all 50 states will immediately see steep cuts in government food aid.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided a 13.6 percent funding increase to SNAP recipients beginning in April 2009, money the bill’s backers said would make its way quickly into the economy. But that extra funding ends Nov. 1. Every one of the 48 million SNAP recipients will see their benefits cut in their next checks.

Given the need, it seems early from a purely moral standpoint. The top earners are recovering nicely, and good for them and all, but the need for SNAP for people who aren’t earning that is still there.

SNAP benefits disproportionately help families with children. More than 21 million children — one in four children in the country today — live in households that participate in the program. More than two-thirds of the $5 billion the government saves will come from households that include children.

But instead of recognizing that the need is real, and that we should do more, we have a House of Representatives that last month voted for major cuts to the program. The GOP in the last election cycle ran candidate for President who doesn’t believe people are entitled to food, and they’re living up to that even though he lost.

Open Thread 10/31

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– Happy Halloween

– Nevada Republican would allow slavery

– The Chamber of Commerce is the worst.

– One of the biggest challenges to gender parity in office is that women don’t run. According to a national study by the Center for American Women in Politics, women are much more likely to run if they’re recruited by others. Men don’t wait to be asked. (Trib link)

– I’m all for environmentalists working to make broad coalitions, but I’m not sure corporate interests and reactionaries will stop mocking them needlessly.

– Your guide to celebrating Dia de los Muertos

Now Web Polls Are Data?

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Representative Dan Kristiansen — who convinced a group of humans to elect him on multiple occasions and everything — has a post about a web poll he conducted earlier. My most fervent hope is that he finds a way to start it off that seems like it’s reaching too hard to have a catchy intro but ends up kind of creepy.

Last week, you allowed me into your homes and/or mobile devices to offer a short survey [the link to you’ve completed the survey is his — Carl] on a proposed transportation revenue package. The response was great and very informative for me. I wanted to share some of the results of this virtual listening tour. While the survey remains open and I will continue to request public input, below is an update on where results stand as of October 29.

So a few questions: “You allowed me into your homes and/or mobile devices,” huh? You’re going with that? What if people didn’t think they were letting him into their homes, but just taking a simple web survey? What if someone took it on a laptop but not at home? Does he need to specify and/or? Really wouldn’t “thanks for taking a minute to complete my survey, if you did” work just fine?

Also, “the results of this virtual listening tour” is an interesting way of saying “the results of a poll of people who were on a Republican’s email list and/or found their way to the state House GOP website.” Anyway, on to the results.

Would you be willing to pay 10 cents or more per gallon of gas to pay for transportation projects around the state?

  • 13.4% Yes
  • 85.6% No
  • 1% I’m not sure

If you had to pay 10 cents or more per gallon of gas, how would this impact you financially?

  • 7.7% It would have little to no impact on me financially
  • 41.2% It would have a moderate impact on me financially, but I could probably afford it
  • 51.1% It would have a negative impact on me financially and I cannot afford it

Gosh, it sounds like the people who answered this survey really are a representative sample… of the people who took the survey. Or maybe they’re demanding price controls on gas? That would be an interesting follow up question. To the extent that’s possible when you’re talking about the results of a web poll. Also, his district is pretty close to the I-5 bridge that collapsed. Maybe he could have asked a question about if that had more or less impact than a 10 cent a gallon tax increase. But I guess we’ll never know because we can only ever look at the cost of taxes, not the cost of losing what those taxes pay for. The closest we get is the next question:

If our state moves forward with a transportation revenue package, please rank what you think the funding priorities should be:

The numbers below are rating averages. The lower the number, the higher prioritization participants gave that particular issue. As you will see below, participants believe “Maintenance, including bridge and road preservation” should be the state’s top funding priority. And they believe that “More pedestrian and bicycle paths” should be the lowest priority of the six options.

  • 1.55 Maintenance, including bridge and road preservation
  • 2.24 New lanes for congested roadways
  • 3.53 Large projects
  • 4.08 Washington State Ferries
  • 4.52 Transit agencies
  • 5.08 More pedestrian and bicycle paths

Does he mean sidewalks instead of “pedestrian”? Just general pedestrian, like paying someone to walk more? Is it infrastructure, and/or paths, that pedestrians and bikes have to share?

I-517 Polling Poorly

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Just to tack on to what Darryl wrote last night, as this blog will testify, Tim Eyman is just unpopular. Oh sure, people like tax cuts and don’t like red light cameras, so when the focus is off Tim Eyman and on those things, he can win some elections. But he’s also an embarrassment who has cost the state so much.

And of course the actual issues are also not on Eyman’s side. People don’t particularly want signature gathering everywhere, or all the time. I’ve done signature gathering for various things, and people are mostly cool about it, but it is taking some of their time. Making that more intrusive and for a longer amount of time can be a problem.

Poll analysis: I-517 faultering

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Initiative 517 is the latest from Tim Eyman’s long line of mostly unsuccessful initiatives. I-517 would lengthen the signature gathering time for initiatives, would give signature gatherers intrusive access to the public, even on private property, and severely restrict free speech in the vicinity of signature gatherers. Essentially, it would make Mr. Eyman’s life a lot easier.

So howz it doin’? A new Moore poll finds:

With just over a week to go before the November 5th general election, Washington’s Initiative 517, which concerns the initiative and referendum process in the state, is opposed by a narrow margin. After hearing the ballot question, 33% of voters plan to or have already voted “yes,” while 40% plan to or have voted “no.” The remaining 27% are undecided or wouldn’t reveal their vote.

Importantly, intensity is stronger on the “no” side – among those who have yet to cast their ballots, 21% say they are a “definite” no vote, while only 11% are a definite “yes” vote.

It sounds bad for I-517. But as SeattlePI.com’s Joel Connelly cautions:

Eyman initiatives tend to run better AT the polls than in the polls. The results on election day have sometimes surprised those who have predicted his demise. And, win or lose, Eyman is usually back with more measures as soon as the votes have been counted.

Something else to consider is the sample size of this poll. Even though the poll (conducted from 23-24 Oct) sampled 500 people, only 365 expressed a Yes or No preference. This is a pretty small sample. Using only those 365 individuals, 200 who said, “No” and 165 who said “Yes”, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability that I-517 would win right now. From a million simulated elections, “Yes” won 94,839 and “No” won 898,738 times.

The analysis suggests that the initiative has only a 9.5% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of votes from the simulation:

Moore-28Oct

Considering these “non-significant” statistical results (which are only based on the poll numbers) and Joel’s caution, I-517 opponents still have plenty of work to do; proponents still have a shot at changing the outcome.

The momentum is on the side of the opponents, however. The subsample of those polled who had already voted “Yes” or “No” on the initiative (104 people), I-517 was losing 37% “Yes” to 63% “No”. (Note that I’ve eliminated the “Don’t Know/Refused” category in those numbers.)

The trend in polling also suggests that I-517 is going down. An Elway poll, taken way back in early September, found 58% supporting and 22% opposed to the initiative. Another Elway poll from mid-October cut into the support with 52% supporting and 25% opposing the measure.

So, the most recent poll suggests a pretty impressive turn-around in support.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us this evening for some pre-election politics over a pint at tonight’s Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.






Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out another DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Friday, the Enumclaw chapter . And next Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 210 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

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