HorsesAss.Org

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and polite conversation over a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle on Tuesday night? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet on Tuesday. Wednesday the Bellingham chapter meets. And the Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Clinton	Rubio
64.7% probability of winning	35.3% probability of winning
Mean of 280 electoral votes	Mean of 258 electoral votes

Sen. Marco Rubio is one of three major G.O.P. candidates out of Florida (along with Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee). This should provide him with a general election advantage of providing a strong showing in this important swing state. The most recent Florida poll, taken in the second week of August, has Rubio leading Hillary Clinton by +12.

In fact, Rubio leads in the most recent polling in the other two classic swing states of Ohio (+2) and Pennsylvania (+7). It hasn’t always been that way. For the past year, Clinton has generally held solid leads in all three swing states, only to lose all three leads over the summer:

So how is it that Clinton can be behind in these three swing states and still lead? It’s because she leads in Wisconsin (+12), Virginia (+1), Texas (+1), Louisiana (+3) and Georgia (+3). Virginia is the only state with a recent poll. Of states with older polls, Wisconsin is at least plausible, but Texas, Louisiana and Georgia seem unlikely to swing blue in 2016.

Clearly, much more polling is needed to get a feel for where the race is at. Clinton has certainly lost ground over the summer, and this is probably a function of two things. First, voters are familiarizing themselves with, and getting used to the idea of voting for Marco Rubio. Second, Clinton has had a terrible summer from the perspective of national popularity. For most of the summer, what news we’ve heard about Clinton, has been largely negative.

The Clinton campaign has been disconnected from a general election audience, as her campaign focuses on another important aspect of the race. They have spent the summer quietly locking up superdelegates, almost guaranteeing her the Democratic nomination. The trade-off for a lousy summer is that the campaign will be freed up early to focus on the care and feeding of general election voters while the Republicans bludgeon their way through an unappealing primary.

Republicans have a very different nomination structure, they don’t have superdelegates, and the dynamics of their over-populated primary are entirely different, so that campaigns have spent the summer attempting to maximize positive news cycles (or, in the case of Donald Trump, positive or negative news cycles). This has allowed the top contenders to “catch-up” to Clinton and, given some more recent polling, possibly top her.

For the polling we have now, however, Clinton holds a thin lead. After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton won 64,668 and Rubio won 35,332 times (including the 1,511 ties). Clinton received (on average) 280 to Rubio’s 258 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 64.7% probability of winning and Rubio would have a 35.3% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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True story: the original inspiration for HA Bible Study was then University of Florida quarterback Tim Tebow and his famous eye-black bible citations. I thought, wouldn’t it be funny to randomly cite less familiar scripture—you know, say, 2 Kings 2:23-24 rather than Philippians 4:13—and our weekly HA Bible Study was born!

And so in honor of Tebow being cut from my beloved Philadelphia Eagles yesterday, I offer this extra bit of bible wisdom for him to ponder:

Jeremiah 49:16
Thy terribleness hath deceived thee, and the pride of thine heart, O thou that dwellest in the clefts of the rock, that holdest the height of the hill: though thou shouldest make thy nest as high as the eagle, I will bring thee down from thence, saith the Lord.

Discuss.

Genesis 6:1-4
And it came to pass, when men began to multiply on the face of the earth, and daughters were born unto them, that the sons of God saw the daughters of men that they were fair; and they took them wives of all which they chose.

And the LORD said, My spirit shall not always strive with man, for that he also is flesh: yet his days shall be an hundred and twenty years.

There were giants in the earth in those days; and also after that, when the sons of God came in unto the daughters of men, and they bare children to them, the same became mighty men which were of old, men of renown.

Discuss.

Kimmel asks people “Do you think President Obama is a Muslim?

Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Glenn Beck’s TheBlaze is imploding.

Obama: Why I went to Alaska.

Color-blind people see color for the first time.

Thom: Col. Wilkerson: “Dick Cheney is an idiot,” and he “should be in jail for war crimes!”

Greenman: We are the asteriod.

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about social media.

2016 Clowns On Parade:

• Pap and Thom: Dr. Ben Carson is a medical malpractice nightmare
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Right wingers are blaming liberals for Trump.
• David Pakman: Republicans like Obama’s ideas better when they think they’re Donald Trump’s
• Young Turks: The real reason Donald Trump is rich.
• Kimmel: 2016 Candidate, The Donald, and 2020 Candidate Kanye, give the same speech
• Jonathan Mann: Donald Trump Was An Anchor Baby:

• Sam Seder: Does Donald Trump know something we don’t know about the Iran deal?
• Young Turks: Trump supporters are fucking out-of-their-gourd CCCRAAAAZZZZZZYYYYYY!!!!!
• Maddow: Trump screwed up on his RNC pledge
• David Pakman: The Donald is wrong. The U.S. is not the most highly taxed country in the world.
• Thom and Pap: Trump bullying gets nastier
• Young Turks: Trump will totally learn things…after getting elected.
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: The Donald Trump—Ted Cruz bromance.
• Young Turks: Ted (whack-a-doodle) Cruz blames Obama for police shooting.
• Farron Cousins: Religious right is keeping Ted Cruz’s campaign alive
• Sam Seder: The Iran Deal has Lindsey Graham all in a hissy fit.
• Young Turks: Rick Perry’s campaign staff abandoning a sinking ship
• Farron Cousins: Millionaires have been wasting money on second string GOP wannabes.
• Ann Telnaes: Scott Walker’s Canadian border wall
• Sam Seder: Scott Walker wants to build a fence on the U.S. Canadian border
• Farron Cousins: Chris Christie wants to track immigrants like fed-ex packages
• Young Turks: How to unlock the Easter Egg in Rand Paul’s selfie app
• Maddow: Bush picks a fight with Stephen Colbert

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ludicropatheticly Ugly!.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News asks if #BlackLivesMatter is a hate group.

Congressional Hits and Misses: Hank Johnson edition.

Thom: Thomas Edison was right about solar energy.

Mental Floss: Unusual political parties:

Rare sea creature found off the coast of Papua New Guinea.

Mark Fiore: Obama drills.

Kim Davis, the Thrice Divorced, Four-times Married, Known Adulterer Refuses to Issue Same-Sex Marriage Licenses:

• Dan Savage nails it on the hypocrisy
• Young Turks: Kim Davis will not be signing marriage certificates because she is in jail.
• PsychoSuperMom: Homophobe Tango (She Had It Coming)
• Bigot Kim Davis is jailed
• Young Turks: Conservatives rally behind jailed marriage clerk
• Sam Seder: Surprise, surprise…Kim Davis is a huge hypocrite.
• Alex Wagner with Dan Savage on Kentucky bigot clerk:

David Pakman: States with the strictest gun laws have lowest rates of gun-related deaths.

Thom: How China messes with American labor.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins: Even Bush-appointed judges agree that voter ID laws are racist.

David Pakman: Democratic Party adopts $15/hr minimum wage to national platform.

Greenman: One day at the wind farm.

Obama views glacier melting from climate change.

Sam Seder: Conservatives know the real reason Obama renamed Denali

Richard Fowler: ObamaCare is working, and the proof is insane.

Thom: The Good, The Bad and The Very, Very Rakehelly Ugly!

David Pakman: Mike Huckabee: Planned Parenthood is like ISIS…

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Oh, please.

I have sympathy for the families who were duped into enrolling their children in charter schools before the court ruled today that they are unconstitutional, but I’ve absolutely no sympathy for the argument that the justices are somehow to blame. The court’s job is to interpret the constitution, and on this issue both the Washington State Constitution and 100 years of legal precedent are rather clear. It was never a sure thing that the court would rule Initiative 1240 unconstitutional because court rulings almost never are, but it was always more likely than not.

Article IX, Section 2 of the constitution plainly reads: “the entire revenue derived from the common school fund and the state tax for common schools shall be exclusively applied to the support of the common schools.” Clear enough. The whole case hinged on the legal definition of “common schools,” and since School District No. 20 v. Bryan in 1909 it has always been this:

– I’m taking Monday off for Labor Day. Do you guys want an Open Thread on Tuesday-Thursday or to wait until Wednesday?

– I support the Seattle teachers.

– If you peruse conservative media, it becomes clear that they’re more bent out of shape about Obama letting Alaska name its own mountain than they are about this woman’s supposed martyrdom.

– There Is No Ferguson Effect

– Finally a place where cars and bikes can gang up on other people. I don’t mind waiting at drawbridges that much, but I don’t bike past a bridge for my commute (generally).

Last week, a boat carrying migrants and refugees from North Africa sank in the Mediterranean. Of the 300,000 plus who’ve attempted the journey to Europe this year, about 2,500 have died. In Austria, children crammed into a van were rescued, while others weren’t so lucky. And after pictures of a young Kurdish child washed up on a Turkish beach appeared in newspapers around the world this week, the humanity behind this crisis seemed to jolt the world closer to the response required.

In Syria alone, the refugee crisis is enormous. But that’s still only a part of the overall influx of those desperate to find a safer home for themselves and their families. I really don’t have anything more to say about this other than that this is an enormous tragedy that the wealthy nations of the world helped to bring about, and one that it can and should fix. But I have very little confidence that they will.

More news from the past two weeks…
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Jesus (video plays automatically at the link).

The Thurston County Prosecutor announced that the Olympia police officer who shot two men earlier this year will not face criminal charges.

Thurston County Prosecutor Jon Tunheim said that assault charges have been filed against Bryson Chaplin, 21, and Andre Thompson, 24. They are scheduled to be in court on September 22.

Tunheim said Officer Ryan Donald was “acting without malice” and had a “good faith fear” when he shot two men in May.

…

In documents released by the sheriff’s office last week, Donald reported that one of the men had been threatening him with a skateboard before the shooting.

Coming at a person with a skateboard is obviously not OK, if that’s what those people did (and let’s be honest, at this point we can’t take a cop’s word for these sorts of things). But even if you accept that’s what they did, it’s not something to get shot over.

Cops should be calming these situations down, not pulling out and using deadly weapons. They have Tasers and other non-lethal methods (not that those are without problems, but they aren’t bullets). So once again, I’ll say if police can’t do their job while armed, we should take away their guns.

Clinton	Walker
99.5% probability of winning	0.5% probability of winning
Mean of 317 electoral votes	Mean of 221 electoral votes

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) started out the election season with much buzz. But at this point, pollsters seem less interested in him, so there isn’t a lot of really current polling that pits him against a Democrat. There are only 83 state polls matching up Walker to Hillary Clinton (Jeb Bush has 212 such polls). Consequently, Walker at a bit of a disadvantage, since most of the polls were taken when Clinton was polling more strongly against all opponents.

No biggie…this is a shakedown for these analyses, so I’ll post it with the caveat that there just isn’t enough recent polling for this match-up. Perhaps pollsters will soon find reason to be more interested in the Governor.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,503 times and Walker wins 497 times (including the 103 ties). Clinton received (on average) 317 to Walker’s 221 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.5% probability of winning and Walker would have a 0.5% probability of winning.

Clinton tends to win in the classic swing states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan as well as Nevada and New Mexico. But the most remarkable thing about these results is how poorly Walker does in his home state of Wisconsin. Here’s the polling picture:

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– Good on Mike O’Brien on Uber drivers.

– Another day, another Democrat going from the legislature to Inslee’s office.

– Another day, another office for Pam Roach to run for.

– This Denali thing sure brought out a lot of problematic people [h/t].

– More Case of the Week Quotient at Overthinking It.

Ten years ago today I received the following email from an HA reader:

I think I’ve told you that I’m into Arab horses. Well, for 3 years Michael Brown was hired and then fired by our IAHA, the International Arabian Horse Assoc. He was an unmitigated, total fucking disaster. I was shocked as hell when captain clueless put him in charge of FEMA a couple of years ago. He or the WH lied on the WH presser announcing him to FEMA. IAHA was never connected to the Olympic Comm, only the half Arab registry then and the governing body to the state and local Arabian horse clubs. He ruined IAHA financially so badly that we had to change the name and combine it with the Purebred registry.

I am telling you this after watching the fucking shipwreck in the Gulf. His incompetence is KILLING people.

After a little bit of sleuthing I turned the tip above into this scathing post that quickly went viral, transforming FEMA’s inadequate response to the tragedy in New Orleans into a national conversation about cronyism. Within days, FEMA director Mike Brown was out of a job. A month later, while testifying before congress, Brown would blame HorsesAss.org by name for his agency’s failures:

The path this story took—from a single reader’s small piece of specialized knowledge, to a local blogger, to a national blog, to the national media—may not be the first example of the transformative power of blogging. But it’s certainly one of the clearest. And I’ll always be proud to have played my little role.

It’s Tuesday…and that’s Drinking Liberally night in Seattle. So please join us for an evening of politics over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. The Long Beach, Tri-Cities and West Seattle chapters also meet tonight. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Ross Hunter is retiring from the legislature effective RIGHT NOW to head the state Department of Early Learning.

Hunter will start in the $150,000 a year job next Tuesday. He takes over at a time when the state is placing a major emphasis, and increased money, into early learning programs. He said he views the “opportunity to improve outcomes for hundreds of thousands of at-risk children (as) incredibly compelling.”

His departure could set off a scramble among senior Democrats for the job of House Appropriations Committee chairman, a powerful position that has major influence on how the state spends billions of dollars in its operating budget. The chairman of the Finance Committee, which sets taxes, may also be leaving. Rep. Reuven Carlyle, D-Seattle, has announced plans to seek a Senate seat if its current occupant, Jeanne Kohl-Welles, wins a seat on the King County Council in November.

Hunter has a long list of accomplishments, but mostly I’ll remember him saying on Podcasting Liberally that people should vote for him for exec because he couldn’t figure out the Metro Trip Planner. Anyway, I’m sure he’ll be good at his new job.

Is there anyone you’d like to see replace Hunter, either in the district or as the main budget person for for the House Dems?

Clinton	Bush
56.0% probability of winning	44.0% probability of winning
Mean of 273 electoral votes	Mean of 265 electoral votes

Poll analyses are back! Yes…after about four years of rest, I’ve decided to get back into the poll analysis business. If you are unfamiliar with my analyses, take a look at the FAQ. This is a shakedown run with a new HA template, so feel free to mention quirks or problems in the comment thread.

I’ve started with a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. I know, I know, it should be a match-up against Donald Trump instead of Bush. The problem is, there are a total of 20 state head-to-head polls available that match-up Hillary and Donald. For Clinton–Bush match-ups at the state level, there are 212 polls. Apparently, pollsters haven’t quite gotten serious about Trump. I expect that most state head-to-head polls will start including him, however.

For the same reason—lack of state head-to-head polling—I cannot really provide analyses for Sanders, O’Malley, Webb, Biden, Warren, Warner, Cuomo, Schweitzer, or any other Democrat (for now). I will, however, do Republicans other than Jeb Bush, because the polling exists.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Hillary Clinton wins 56,003 times and Bush wins 43,997 times (including the 2,369 ties, which go to the Republican for 2016). Clinton received (on average) 273 to Bush’s 265 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would be expected to win with a 56.0% probability and Bush with a 44.0% probability. That is a close result…damn near a tie.

I remind you that these analyses are driven by state head-to-head polls, not national polls. The state-wide polls are aggregated in a way that emulates the electoral college.

A peek at the long term trend is given after the jump….
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