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Poll Analysis: Trump’s bad week doesn’t improve

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Clinton
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 335 electoral votes
Mean of 203 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

About 17 new polls have come out since the previous analysis a few days ago. Many of the polls were taken after last Friday’s release of Donald Trump having a candid discussion with Billy Bush. That isn’t to say Sec. Hillary Clinton is totally off the hook, as WikiLeaks has released a series of stolen staffer emails over the past week to some embarassment. They don’t seem to be getting much press attention, but perhaps they are starting to have an effect on the race.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,979 times and Trump wins 21 times, and they are all Electoral College ties. Clinton received (on average) 335 to Trump’s 203 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have greater than a 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than a 0.01% probability of winning. The results are an improvement for Clinton who previously had a 99.8% probability of winning and a mean electoral vote total of 328.

Here are the most notable changes.

In Alaska a new poll has Trump up +5.5% in addition to a poll that has him up +3%. Trump’s chances have risen to 90.2% from 71%.

An old Arizona poll drops out, leaving behind two polls, one tie and one with Clinton up +2%. The state has gone from a dead tie to Clinton with a 60.8% chance–still pretty close to a tie.

clintontrump13sep16-13oct16arizona

With the gain and loss of one poll, Florida moves a bit more into the Clinton column. She would win the state with a 91.8% probability today. A few days ago, her chances were 88.6%.

clintontrump13sep16-13oct16florida

Trump gains in Georgia, as polls age out. He was at 90.1% on Monday, now he is at a 98.7% chance.

In Iowa, one of two polls aged out giving Trump a small increase to 78.1% probability of taking the state now.

In Maine, three old polls age out and one newly released poll weighs in. The biggest change is that Trump’s chances in the 2nd Congressional District have dropped from 98.7% to 59.6%. Trump is +1.6% in ME-2 now.

clintontrump13sep16-13oct16maine-2

Nevada is very close. Of the five current polls, two are ties, and three give CLinton small leads (C+3%, C+1%, C+6%). Clinton jumps from a 68.5% (Monday) to a 76.6% probability of winning now.

clintontrump13sep16-13oct16nevada

One new Clinton+9% poll in New Hampshire pushes her chances in the state from 95.2% to 98.4%.

In North Carolina, a new poll enters and an old one leaves, changing Clinton’s chances from 75.3% on Monday to 86% today.

clintontrump13sep16-13oct16north-carolina

Clinton’s chances also have increased in Ohio, but only because an old Trump+6% poll has aged out. Trump drops from 85.9% to 68.3%.

clintontrump13sep16-13oct16ohio

Utah is the big surprise of the last few days. Both old polls with Trump at +15%, age out, and two new polls are released today. One is a tie at 26% each, the other has Trump at +6%. The result, Trump drops from 100% to a 76.9% chance of winning Utah today.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 13 Oct 2015 to 13 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: The Senate Flips

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
63.5% probability
36.5% probability
Mean of 50 seats
Mean of 50 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis, some 2.5 weeks ago, showed control of the Senate in the hands of the Republicans with a 70.5% probability and a mean of 51 seats. We have had a plethora of new polls since then, and we have seen a big change at the top of the ballot.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 28,826 times, there were 34,688 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 36,486 times. If we presume the VP will be a Democrat (and this seems very likely), Democrats have a 63.5% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans, a 36.5% probability of controlling the Senate.

Where have the changes come?

First, is Illinois, where we didn’t have much polling before. A new poll has Tammy Duckworth (D) leading Mark Kirk (R) by an astonishing 14.4% in a four-way race. Illinois moves from 81.1% chance to a 99.8% chance of electing the Democrat.

In Indiana, where Democrat Evan Bayh is up against Republican Todd Young, we have but a single current poll that has Bayh up +1%. The previous poll had Bayh up +4%, so the Democrat’s chances have dropped from 77.2% to 56.2%–just about a tie.

senate11sep16-11oct16indiana1

We have no new polling in Missouri, where Democrat Jason Kander is challenging the incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R). But two older polls have dropped out and we are left with one Emerson poll with Kander at +2%. Blunt’s chances have dropped from 97.4% to 35%.

New Hampshire has been a back-and-forth race between Democrat Maggie Hassan and Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). Ayotte led in the last analysis with a 56.5% probability of winning. Five polls have aged out and four new one have been completed. Now she is up to 68.6% probability.

senate11sep16-11oct16new_hampshire2

In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross is challenging Sen. Richard Burr (R). This race has seen a significant shift in the polling and Burr’s 91% probability of winning has changed to a 61.1% probability for Ross.

senate11sep16-11oct16north_carolina1

In Oregon, Sen. Kate Brown (D) is defending her seat against Republican Bud Pierce. The only polling in the last analysis was small and had her up +8%. A new poll has Brown up +15%. Consequently her chances have gone up to 100%.
Oops…I got the gubernatorial candidate names in the Senate file. So it is Mark Callahan (R) versus Sen. Ron Wyden (D). The poll numbers are correct, however, so the only polling in the last analysis was small and had him up +8%. A new poll has Wyden up +15%. Consequently his chances have gone up to 100%.

Pennsylvania is another state where an incumbent is endangered, with Democrat Katie McGinty leading Sen. Pat Toomey (R). Previously she had a 78.3% probability of taking the seat. The loss of five polls and the gain of seven new polls have shifted this a little, and now KcGinty has a 68.7% chance

senate11sep16-11oct16pennsylvania2

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 63.5%, Republicans control the Senate 36.5%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.9 ( 1.1)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.1 ( 1.1)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 50 (48, 52)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 50 (48, 52)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 35
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 18
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: six

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 42
Strong Democrat 5 47
Leans Democrat 3 3 50
Weak Democrat 1 1 1 51
Weak Republican 0 0 0 49
Leans Republican 1 1 49
Strong Republican 5 48
Safe Republican 43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

#
Sample
%
%
Dem
Rep
State
@
polls
size
Dem
Rep
% wins
% wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 1 320 23.4 76.6 0.0 100.0
AZ 1 528 40.9 59.1 0.1 99.9
AR 2 1142 36.9 63.1 0.0 100.0
CA 2 1106 57.0 43.0 99.9 0.1
CO 7 4258 54.4 45.6 100.0 0.0
CT 1& 872 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
FL 10 5787 47.0 53.0 0.1 99.9
GA 5 2258 40.1 59.9 0.0 100.0
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 3 1736 54.8 45.2 99.8 0.2
IN 1 498 50.6 49.4 56.2 43.8
IA 3 1428 42.1 57.9 0.0 100.0
KS 1& 495 40.4 59.6 0.2 99.8
KY 1& 440 43.2 56.8 2.4 97.6
LA 1& 794 34.6 65.4 0.0 100.0
MD 2 1015 67.7 32.3 100.0 0.0
MO 1 492 51.2 48.8 65.0 35.0
NV 7 3943 48.0 52.0 4.1 95.9
NH 5 2315 49.3 50.7 31.4 68.6
NY 1& 671 72.1 27.9 100.0 0.0
NC 12 6452 50.2 49.8 61.1 38.9
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 5 2519 42.9 57.1 0.0 100.0
OK 0 0 (0) (100)
OR 1 1061 61.2 38.8 100.0 0.0
PA 11 5490 50.5 49.5 68.7 31.3
SC 1& 941 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 1& 502 27.7 72.3 0.0 100.0
VT 1& 544 62.3 37.7 100.0 0.0
WA 2 1071 54.4 45.6 97.9 2.1
WI 4 2680 54.0 46.0 99.9 0.1

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Poll Analysis: Clinton has a very good week

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Clinton
Trump
99.8% probability of winning
0.2% probability of winning
Mean of 328 electoral votes
Mean of 210 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

There have been 32 new polls released since the previous analysis on 3 Oct. The polls are largely post-first debate, pre-second debate and have almost all been collected before last Friday’s release of the conversation between Billy Bush and Donald Trump.

For this analysis, I have reduced the window that defines “current polls” to ten days. As the pace of polling picks up, the window will shrink some more.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,821 times and Trump wins 179 times (including the 23 ties). Clinton received (on average) 328 to Trump’s 210 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.2% probability of winning.

This is a considerable shift from the 92.5% probability Clinton had in the last analysis. Also her mean electoral vote total has climbed from 300 to 328. That’s quite a jump for one week!

There are a few state changes worth noting.

In Alaska, a new poll has Trump up by only +3%. Previous older polls had Trump with stronger showings (+21% and +14.8%), so this is quite a change. Consequently, Trump’s chances have tumbled from 100% to 71%. I don’t believe Clinton is a serious contender in Alaska, but we only have one small poll for the state, so that is what the available evidence tells us.

Two new Arizona polls don’t favor Trump. We now have three current polls for the state, one has Trump up +2, one is tied, and the most recent has Clinton up +2%. The state is 50-50 (percent) right now. Did I mention that this is Arizona?

A handful of polls favoring Trump have aged out and some new polls have been released. We now have eight polls, six that favor Clinton (+4%, +0.2%, +5%, +4%, +2%, and +3%), and two that favor Trump (+1.4% and +1%). Clinton’s chances have gone from 62.9% to 88.6%. Clearly, the state is quite close, but Clinton seems to be gaining, if slowly.

The previous analysis had Trump running strong in Iowa with a 93.5% chance of winning. The two current polls have Trump up +4% and Clinton up +0.6%, so Trump’s chances drop to 71.6%.

Nevada is another very close state. Last week, Clinton had a 52.4% probability of winning. The five current polls have one tie, three small leads for Clinton, and one for Trump. Clinton’s chances are pegged at 68.5% now.

One bit of positive news for Trump is in New Hampshire where poll turn-over has favored him slightly. He went from a 0.9% chance to 4.8% chance of taking the state.

New Mexico was modestly strong with Clinton at 77.3% chance last week with one poll with her up +4%. That poll is joined by a new one having her up a remarkable +13.5%. Her chances are now 99.3%.

Of the nine current polls in North Carolina, Clinton has small leads in the last eight. This raises her chances from last week from 56.7% to 75.3%.

Ohio has been Trump territory recently. But the most recent poll has Clinton up +2%. Combined with the three other polls (Trump +5%, +1%, and +6%), Trump’s chances have dropped from 94.8% to 85.9%.

In South Carolina, Trump drops from 100% to 77.6% because an old poll at Trump+15.4%, aged out. The remaining poll is Trump+4%. We simply need more polls in the state.

Something similar happens in Texas, where two old poll drops out and one new one is released. Trump goes from 97.2% down to 93.1% chance of winning.

A new Washington state poll has Clinton at +17%, joining another poll with Clinton at +5.7. Clinton goes from 87.5% chance to 99.9%.

In Wisconsin, an old poll drops out (Clinton+3%), one remains (Clinton+6.3), and two new polls join them (Clinton +8% and +9.6%). Clinton’s chances rise from 92% to 99.8% in Wisconsin.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2015 to 10 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Open Thread October 10

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Before we get too removed from the Trump tapes, I’d like to extend an extra special fuck you to the people who enabled Trump over the decades who are now condemning him. Oh Republican elected officials who knew who he was thing this is beyond the pale. Great, but you’re late to the fucking party. Mitt Romney spent half of 2012 alone with Trump and still desperately courted his vote. He was a gentleman the whole time? Oh producers of his show say he said even worse? And yet you kept working with him. Oh there’s probably tape of him dropping n-bombs? Did you not do anything when they first came out?

Debate Open Thread

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I am putting this up early tonight because I am in Redmond, heading to the Roanoke. The SR520 bridge is closed, which makes my commute a bit uncertain. So have at it in the comment threads, and I’ll join you as soon as possible.

6:04: We’ve started!

6:07: “We’re going to respect each other.” We’ll see!

6:08: Overheard at the Roanoke: “Oh my God…he’s medicated!”

6:09: Trump isn’t going to even try to answer the question.


…Certainly here at the Roanoke!

6:12: When asked about sexual assault, Trump talks ISIS. I’m sure he’s hit on her, too.

6:16: “For THE African Americans.” Hasn’t ANYONE talked to him about his awkward use of language?

6:23: Holy fuck…Trump is having a melt down!!!!

6:25: “You should be You’d be in jail.” Very presidential.

6:36: Donald Trump cannot give specifics. His health care plans are more aspirational than operational.

6:39: A lot of sniffing going on there, Donald.

6:46: Trump is very whiney this evening.

6:50: “She is blaming it on the late, great Abraham Lincoln”. Do we really say “late, great” for someone who has been dead for so long?

7:00: Okay…he’s unhinged again!

7:02: Clinton should have responded, “There you go whipping out that ’30 years of experience’ thing again.

7:09: Trump is now debating his running mate. This is precious!!!!

7:15: Dear Donald, Maybe they don’t interrupt Clinton because her answers are coherent, responsive. Quit your persistent whining!!!

7:22: Q about Trump’s “sextape” tweet. Trump: “Benghazi!!!!”

Conclusion: Trump was better medicated and didn’t do worse than last time. Clinton, as always was in control. Trump may GAIN from this debate…but probably not enough to offset the big losses from his “bus tape”.

Seattle’s Drinking Liberally Debate Watching Party

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DLBottle

Perhaps you considered skipping tonight’s second Presidential debate between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Reality TV Host Donald Trump. Not any more, huh?

If you are looking for a venue for this evening, please join our debate-watching party at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern. The debate starts at 6:00pm.

Also, join us Tuesday for our normal meeting of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. And on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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John Oliver: Police accountability.

Stephen: Gary Johnson is running his campaign…into the ground.

Lewis Black: Getting out the millennial vote:

Bill Maher with Sen. Al Franken.

The 2016 Pussy-footing around the Alt-Right Clown:

Lewis Black Black to the Future – The Longest Election Cycle.

Kimmel : The week in unnecessary censorship.

SNL: 2016 Presidential Debate:

Bill Maher: I don’t know it for a fact…I just know it’s true.

Trevor: Congress overrides 9/11 veto.

Jimmy Dore: Even FAUX News see through Christie’s BS.

PsychoSuperMom: Dear Internet Trolls.

Daily Show: “The O’Reilly Factor” Gets Racist in Chinatown.

VP Wannabe:

White House: West Wing Week.

Seth Meyers: Chelsea Clinton on life-long family attacks and Bad ’90s fashion.

Mental Floss: 44 facts about birds.

Jimmy Dore: Ted Cruz humiliates himself in one embarrassing, slimy phone call.

Samantha Bee: Maine’s personal Drumpf.

Sam Seder: Cruz’s pathetic phone banking for Drumpf.

Adam Ruins Everything: Why your AirBnB may be illegal.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Open Thread — 7 Oct

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It’s always a bit tough to figure out when companies make decisions that activists have been pushing, how much is because of those activists, and how much is the stated reasons. So Shell won’t be sending oil trains to Anacortes.

I don’t know how much oil prices had to do with it as the company says, and how much activists and environmentalists won the day. It’s great for Anacortes, and good for everywhere between there and the Bakken.

O’Penthread

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On top of the instrumental benefits of getting the hell around much faster, Sound Transit expansion will be good for the environment. It’s sort of duh, but it’s nice to be able to read some specifics. It’s nice to be able to say it will cut over 360 million vehicle miles per year, save 800,000 tons of annual carbon emissions. Rather than just I assume it must be because driving is still driving.

Live Blogging the VP Debate

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Because, why not.

Feel free to add your own commentary to the discussion thread.

6:04: “Kaine wins the coin toss…people are saying the coin is rigged, so rigged. Believe me!”

6:08: Donald Trump certainly isn’t “stifled” by taxes!

6:09: Pence seems to be rambling.

6:10: I see Kaine is wearing his commie child-slaying arugula-eaters flag pin this evening. Typical.

6:16: Somebody is going to be fired. The idiot who mixed up their ties.

6:18: Pence’s blue tie with that background makes his hair look blue. He should be a poll worker on election day!

6:21: Now that we have gotten past the early interupty start, both candidates are effectively filibustering.

6:23: Time for the “bikini graph”:

6:25: “Donald Trump has created thousands of unpaid subcontractors.”

6:27: Pence, “There they go again…” Laughter erupts.

6:35: I hate anecdotes in politics.

6:40: What makes Trump and Pence such a good team: One of them constantly pops Viagra, the other, Ambien.

A communist immigrant!!!!!!!

6:49: Contra Pence, Obama did not bring bin Laden “to Justice”. He had him executed.

6:58: The moderator needs a switch to cut off their microphones!

7:00: Does Donald know that Pence is saying all these anti-Russia things?!?

7:18: Clearly, the Clintons read the bestselling “Foundations for Dummies”

7:26: Shorter Pence: “I’m an anti-abortion fanatic!”

7:30: Statement of the night: Pence, “Look, he is not a polished politician.”

7:32: I was hoping for more debate on Donald Trump’s “personal Vietnam.”

VP Debate Edition of Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleThe VP debate is tonight, so the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will start early. Please join us for an evening of debate cheers and jeers over over a pint.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. For the debate, we’ll start at 6:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Poll Analysis: Clinton surges post-debate

by — ,

Clinton
Trump
92.5% probability of winning
7.5% probability of winning
Mean of 300 electoral votes
Mean of 238 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

We have now had a few days for post-debate polls to trickle out. My previous analysis, four days ago, was almost entirely pre-debate polls. It showed Clinton with a 79.2% probability of winning the election with, on average, 288 electoral votes.

There have been about 20 or so post-debate state head-to-head polls released, mostly in competitive states. The results confirm the general wisdom that Clinton gained the edge from the first debate.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 92,456 times and Trump wins 7,544 times (including the 1,007 ties). Clinton received (on average) 300 to Trump’s 238 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 92.5% probability of winning and Trump would have a 7.5% probability of winning.

A couple of states showed some interesting changes:

In Colorado one poll aged out and we got two new polls today that both have Clinton up by +11%. This has moved the probability from 51.4% for Trump to 83.7% for Clinton. The state is still quite close, but the magnitude of Clinton’s lead in two polls suggest that Clinton now has the advantage.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16colorado

The story is similar in Florida one poll aged out, and three new polls were released, all with Clinton leading. Clinton’s leads, however, are smaller at 4%, +0.2% and 5%. Clinton is leading in 6 of the 10 current polls. Trump had a 60.6% probability of taking Florida 4 days ago, now Clinton is up with a 62.9% probability. The state is still mighty close!

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16florida

Trump gains a bit in Iowa, not because of any new polls—there have been none since the debate. Rather one poll aged out. Trump leads in 2 of the 3 current Iowa polls.

Nevada gains two new polls with Clinton up by +6% and +1%. As a result Trump’s probability of winning of 66.8% four days ago has shrunk to 47.6%. This is, basically, a tie.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16nevada

New Hampshire is over-polled because of a competitive Senate race. We lost one poll and gained two new ones in 4 days with Clinton up +6% and +7%. Clinton’s chances go up a bit to a 99.1% probability of winning today.

We have one new poll in New Jersey for a total of 2 polls. This one has Clinton up 6.4%, and so Clinton moves from a 78.3% probability to a 92.5% probability of taking the state.

In New Mexico, one old poll was replaced by a new (but small) poll that has Clinton up +4%. The previous poll had her at +9%. As a result, Clinton’s chances have dropped from 99.4% to 77.3% probability of winning the state now. The polling history suggests that Clinton is very likely to take New Mexico:

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16new-mexico

Two new polls, and the loss of an old poll in North Carolina have strengthened Clinton’s tenuous hold on the state. She now has lead in five consecutive NC polls, but the margins are small (+1%, +3%, +1%, +2.6% and +1%). Her chances have gone from 52.2% to 56.7%. Still, pretty much a tie.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16north-carolina

In Pennsylvania we lose two polls and gain one new one. This has tightened the race slightly, but Clinton still has a 94.9% probability of taking the state. The polling history does suggest a tightening of the race, but Clinton leads the last 5 polls by small margins (+4%, +3%, +1%, +2%, +2%).

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16pennsylvania

Virginia loses one poll and gains two new ones. Four days ago, Clinton had a 99.7% probability of winning. Today, she takes all but 28 of the 100,000 simulated elections.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Oct-2015 to 03-Oct-2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ). As we’ve seen before, Clinton is on the move upward, after hitting a “low” that still had her most likely winning the election.

Note that the polls have yet to “speak” to Donald Trump’s other problems that arose after the debate—his 3am tweet about an Hispanic model (Alicia Machado) and her non-existent “sextape”, Trump’s own soft-core porn video, Trump’s suggestion that his opponent is cheating on her spouse, Trump’s partial 1995 tax forms showing over $900 million losses, the Trump Foundation’s potential legal problems, his badly-stated comment about Vets with PTSD, and a bunch of high profile newspaper non-endorsements. If these issues affect the polls, we’ll see the effects over the next week or two.

Of course, things may not continue to favor Clinton. Wednesday is supposedly the “October Surprise” that will un-do her.

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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