 |
 |
There have been 131 new polls released since the previous analysis just 3 days ago in the race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The sheer volume of polls has let me tighten the “current poll” window to polls in the past two weeks. This has resulted in the race tightening a bit. Three days ago (with a 3-week “current poll” window, Biden averaged 373 electoral votes.
Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Biden wins all 100,000 elections and receives (on average) 362 to Trump’s 176 electoral votes. In other words, Biden would almost certainly win an election held today. We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow….
What are the big shifts over the last three days? In Georgia, there are 13 polls total that are split six with Trump ahead, six with Biden in the lead, and one tie. Biden’s chances have dropped slightly from a 94% probability of winning three days ago to a 77 percent chance of winning the state today. In Iowa, five new polls were released and five aged-out for nine polls total. Biden leads in four and Trump in four with one tie. The net result is that Biden’s slight lead (56% probability of winning) has moved to Trump leading (53% probability of winning today). Basically, Iowa is a toss-up.
We lost one of the two polls in Nebraska’s second congressional district, so Biden’s chances have slipped from a 98% chance to a 70% chance of winning. This is, essentially, a situation of too little polling.
North Carolina is the state everyone is talking about. And there is lots of polling. I have 27 current polls, with six new polls added and a loss of 14 older polls. Biden leads in 18 of the polls and Trump leads in seven polls; there are two ties. These shifts in polls have caused Biden to slip slightly from a 99% chance of winning to an 87% chance of winning. Finally, in Texas we have 11 current polls, with 5 new ones and six old ones dropping out. Trump leads in seven polls and Biden in three, with one tie. The net result is Trump’s chances have gone up again from 59% probability of winning to a 76% probability of winning.
There are some states that went for Trump in 2016 but the analysis gives Biden a solid lead, including Arizona (96% probability of winning), Florida (>99.9% probability of winning), Michigan (>99.9% probability), Pennsylvaina (>99.9% probability) and Wisconsin (>99.9% probability).
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated weekly for the past year, always including polls from the preceding two weeks (FAQ).
For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
- 351 electoral votes with a 7.86% probability
- 357 electoral votes with a 6.90% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 4.61% probability
- 350 electoral votes with a 4.36% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 3.92% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 3.30% probability
- 352 electoral votes with a 3.16% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 2.90% probability
- 395 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 362.2 (20.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 175.8 (20.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 357 (333, 411)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 181 (127, 205)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 296 | |||
| Strong Biden | 22 | 318 | ||
| Leans Biden | 33 | 33 | 351 | |
| Weak Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 351 |
| Weak Trump | 6 | 6 | 6 | 187 |
| Leans Trump | 57 | 57 | 181 | |
| Strong Trump | 62 | 124 | ||
| Safe Trump | 62 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 1 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Biden | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Votes | polls | Votes | Biden | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 3 | 2078 | 39.8 | 60.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 2 | 1491 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 2.4 | 97.6 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 19 | 13497 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 96.1 | 3.9 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 573 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 2 | 1362 | 65.3 | 34.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 3 | 2049 | 56.5 | 43.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1* | 778 | 66.1 | 33.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1* | 737 | 62.0 | 38.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 0* | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 32 | 34160 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| GA | 16 | 13 | 9471 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 76.6 | 23.4 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 880 | 68.5 | 31.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 565 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 3 | 1947 | 58.1 | 41.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 3 | 1934 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| IA | 6 | 9 | 6231 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 46.7 | 53.3 | ||
| KS | 6 | 4 | 4941 | 42.6 | 57.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1 | 227 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 6.6 | 93.4 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1 | 717 | 37.9 | 62.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 3 | 2316 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 3 | 1151 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 3 | 1164 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 79.5 | 20.5 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1 | 746 | 63.8 | 36.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1 | 836 | 68.9 | 31.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 22 | 16215 | 53.9 | 46.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 8 | 5591 | 54.6 | 45.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1 | 487 | 42.7 | 57.3 | 1.1 | 98.9 | ||
| MO | 10 | 2 | 2015 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 0.7 | 99.3 | ||
| MT | 3 | 3 | 2077 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 5.6 | 94.4 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 376 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 37.6 | 62.4 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 1 | 791 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 69.7 | 30.3 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 5 | 5389 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NH | 4 | 4 | 3125 | 55.7 | 44.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 3 | 1663 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 1133 | 56.2 | 43.8 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| NY | 29 | 2 | 908 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 27 | 22119 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 86.9 | 13.1 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 405 | 42.0 | 58.0 | 1.4 | 98.6 | ||
| OH | 18 | 11 | 10006 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 21.8 | 78.2 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 5193 | 38.5 | 61.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1* | 897 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| PA | 20 | 32 | 27115 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 6 | 4793 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1 | 569 | 43.9 | 56.1 | 2.1 | 97.9 | ||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1407 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 11 | 10534 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 24.2 | 75.8 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1 | 627 | 46.3 | 53.7 | 8.7 | 91.3 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 549 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 4 | 2634 | 55.9 | 44.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WA | 12 | 2* | 1118 | 61.8 | 38.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1 | 522 | 39.5 | 60.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 15 | 10786 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 552 | 34.4 | 65.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
I guess we’ll have to wait and see what kind of shit Republicans try to pull to nullify the voters’ decision.
It would be very unwise to rebrand themselves as a totalitarian party determined to take power away from the people if they ever want to get laid again.
Way too many articles headlined “Forget the polls…” emanating from the right in the last week.
Sabato awards 321 to Biden.
Thank you, Darryl.
@3 That’s gracious of you, doc. Thank you for that.
May the Trump be with you.
The St Louis news is showing polling places with lines twice as long as the good rides as Disneyland. At 6:45 am
BREAKING!!!
Forget The Polls:
Wait until you see this latest analysis from recently released “internal” GOP reports proving how 1.8 million of the 1.5 million new voters casting ballots in Pennsylvania this year are voting Trump!
There were 200+ people in line at my local polling place at 7 am. Line wrapped halfway around the elementary school.
9 million ballots cast in Florida before the opening of the polls today. Compared to 2016 (not really valid – COVID) that would equate to a total turnout of 89%. Not realistic. But local state experts are anticipating a total turnout in excess of 83% which would tie or surpass the record from 1992. And it’s a big jump from the 75% turnout of 2016.
In Florida, of the eligible voters left to chime in, Republicans have the clear advantage, with about 150,000 more high propensity voters when compared to Democrats. But negative partisanship plays a big role. Because Democrats have about an equal advantage in terms of low propensity voters. If enough of those low propensity voters are pissed off about losing their jobs, being screamed at by maskless Trumpalo Karens in grocery store lines, nine agonizing minutes of neck-kneeling sport-murder, and seeing Guatemalan Toddler Torture, then Democrats just might flip the state.
If that happens it is game over for the GOP.
Conventional election theory however also drags in likely voter persuasion. Here Republicans have the advantage in numbers of available consistent voters, if turnout is taken out of the equation. Biden has to persuade about a percent or two more Republicans to cross over compared to Trump. Or Biden has to persuade about 6% more “no party affiliation” voters when compared to Trump.
Remember, Trump won Florida by a larger margin than Obama did four years earlier. And he did it by running up raw vote numbers in about 10 to 15 counties in central Florida. This is his home state where he is better organized that in most other states and where Republicans have decades of experience managing turnout drives in close elections.
Still the fact that Florida is very much in play and that its fate could terminate the future of the GOP is a cause for hope and some satisfaction among Democrats.
Amazingly, all 577 Broward County FL precincts reported up and running smoothly when polls opened at 7am EST, with hundreds of voters lining up before the openings. A good sign in a county that bears watching. To win the state Biden needs to pile up a solid lead in counties like Broward before the western Florida, CST polls close and begin reporting an hour later.
BLM dummocretins blocking NC polling places
Philadelphia dummocretins blocking GOP poll observers
Philadelphia dummocretins illegally placing BiteME!-Harris signs at polling stations
Voters in GOP locations harassed.
And that’s just east coast voting. Need Puddy say more senile idiot wabbit?
10. Bullshit. Provide links or you are lying. Your God punishes people who lie.
I don’t think we will,know the results of the election for president for a couple of weeks. The other political races will probably be mostly known by 11:00 PM our time tonight.
@ 8
Republicans have the clear advantage, with about 150,000 more high propensity voters when compared to Democrats.
Propensity for what?
Marking a ballot correctly?
Pledging allegiance to, rather than stomping and burning, the American flag and the republic for which it stands?
Buying stuff rather than stealing stuff?
@13 Your vote is worth exactly as much as the vote of an ex-felon who has completed his parole and paid his fines. You’re indistinguishable from the ex-felon in some other respects, as well.
Jewish cemetery photo …
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/03/us/michigan-jewish-cemetery-desecration-trnd/index.html
Lying? What’s Puddy’s home town deaddeformed? It’s all over Twatter deaddeformed. Just take a gander and see for yourself.
Puddy doesn’t JUMP for you. As dot bombed decides that links are not needed and Puddy performs his due diligence and finds the left wrong swill, do your own due diligence. How do you think I know what dot bombed’s favrit sites are deaddeformed? It didn’t tell Puddy what it would visit and rewrite for assesHorse!
Use Twatter and you’ll see it PLAIN AND VERY CLEAR!
See you later Pavlov!
“Wall Street soars as investors bet on clear election winner and swift passing of stimulus bill”
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/wall-street-rises-investors-bet-clear-election-winner-swift-passing-n1245943
Looks like the stock market is already calling it, doc. Me, I think that’s getting a little ahead of things.
To prove deaddeformed Puddy ain’t LYING like dummocretins here all the time and not JUMPING because that little voice said prove to deaddeformed she’s a total moron…
so suck on this FACT – https://100percentfedup.com/breaking-philadelphia-elections-spokesperson-says-poll-workers-bullying-intimidating-threatening-republican-poll-watcher-was-honest-mistake/
Buzzfeed, dummocretin scum of the first order! They even admitted it happened. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Find the rest lady dummocretin moron! Now back to refinishing some furniture for the wife!
So my edited comment above was marked as spam eh? See modified one below.
Team BiteME! doesn’t like their Pennsylvania and Florida chances?
Well DAYUM!!!!!
We read above the rantings and ramblings of oddball dot bombed who confidently claimed BiteME! had Florida in the “bag”. Puddy waits until the final votes are in because you never know what dummocretin shenanigans are planned when they figger out how many votes they need to “create” from dead people or senile nursing home occupants. We have a senile nursing home occupant lurking the assesHorse threads every day as a sick idiotic wabbit!
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
Another lie.
If they weren’t failures in life, they would not have to resort to lying.
My analysis of Florida above indicates that Trump/GOP RapeFans enjoy numerically significant advantages in an otherwise normal turnout cycle. What’s still unknown is whether or not 2020 will be a normal turnout cycle in Florida. There are clearly a couple of circumstances relating to turnout that can substantially benefit Biden/Harris and could turn the tide. One involves a large increase in turnout overall. One involves a differential increase in turnout among urban/suburban voters. And one involves a differential turnout of NPA voters. All three of these are realistic possibilities in the current political climate and in light of early voting patterns. But there’s no guarantee that day-of-election voting follows other patterns. So we won’t really know until we see some later turnout numbers and finally some returns.
But the fact remains that Florida (and Texas) are essentially must-win states for Republicans. They most certainly are not must-win states for Biden. The fact also remains that the Pudiot lies in his comments all the time. He has no other choice.
Puddy can tweak another snowflake at Puddy’s whim. See dot bombed dance dance dance @21!
Now what happened to deaddeformed? Guess she found those Twatter posts after Puddy helped her with the Philadelphia GOP poll worker above. You see deaddeformed, Puddy reads left wrong Twatter all the time.
So deaddeformed,
Did you find the Philadelphia polling place illegal BiteME! poster yet?
Federal Judge Orders USPS to Conduct Election Day ‘Sweeps’ to Ensure Ballot Delivery Is Not Delayed in Key Battleground States
Mediaite!
Wow that Emmet Sullivan was appointed by GWB – an always wrong winger.
Callin’ it. Congratulations President-elect Biden.
HA!
Wow that comment was by pos rapey mcdimfuk – a creepy, misogynist, batshit insane always wrong winger and way ahead of MSNBC even!
@24 Before Trump, there still were honest Republican judges.
It’s absolutely true, for once.
Rational, well educated, intelligent people will stop and cross the street whenever they look ahead and see a lunatic standing on the sidewalk, shrieking, and smearing himself with his own shit.
You hate to see it. But all you can do is get out of the way so nobody else gets hurt.