This evening there will be a special Debate Edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Please join us at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle, for a Democratic debate-watching party.

You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our normal starting time is 8:00 pm, but the debate “pre-game show” starts at 5:30 PDT, and the debate itself starts at 6:00 PDT. So join us early for this one.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Wednesday, the Bellingham chapter meets. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 183 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Matthew Filipowicz: Wall Street reacts to TPP agreement.

Both sides of the Clinton email scandal make their case.

David Pakman: Alabama passes voter ID, then closes ID offices in black Counties

The 2016 Clown Festival:

• Trevor Noah: Not so pro-life afterall.
• We collectively are answerable
• Chris Hayes: The Las Vegas Trump rally you can’t unsee!
• Donald Trump approves of Russia’s military activities in Syria.
• Coming Soon: The Republican Spooktacular

• The GOP answer: “Stuff Happens”
• Marco Rubio weighs in on his missed votes
• David Pakman: Ben Carson would wait “for the next one”
• Ben Carson controversy over Holocaust and Oregon shooting comments
• Trevor Noah: Ben Carson blames the victims.
• Dr. Ben Carson’s Self defense course.
• Trevor Noah: Ben Carson, Popeyes Survivor
• Sam Seder: Ben Carson wants armed kindergarten Teachers!
• Young Turks: Ben Carson doesn’t know what the debt ceiling!?!
• Michael Brooks: Carly Fiorina–my medieval history degree will help me fight ISIS!
• Farron Cousins: Isn’t it time for Jeb! to pull the plug?
• Matt Binder: Jeb, “Stuff happens.”
• Ann Telnaes: George W may help Campaign for Jeb!
• David Pakman: Presidential candidates ranked by supporter’s grammar

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about the ocean.

Farron Cousins: Racist right wingers are the biggest threat to America today.

Vladimir Putin can do anything he wants to do.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Tom Hartman: California to vote on Citizens United.

The New (Anti-)McCarthyism:

• Stephen: We need a Benghazi hears hearings
• Maddow: McCarthy bails:

• A GAFFE
• Clinton campaign releases funny ad responding to McCarthy admitting true purpose of Benghazi investigation
• McCarthy surrenders.
• Young Turks: Kevin McCarthy’s Benghazi gaffe cost him big time.
• Matthew Filipowicz with Julianna Forlano: The GOP fight to replace John Boehner as Speaker
• Who is McCarthy’s Next Target?:

• PsychoSuperMom: Speaker of the House
• Ann Telnaes: Republicans keep kicking themselves
• Young Turks: The real reason McCarthy dropped out.

Roy Zimmerman: Roy’s birthday AND the end of the world.

Young Turks: Brisol Palin needs to STFU about free birth control.

David Pakman: Legal group representing Kim Davis is declared a hate group.

Thom: ALEC’s 2016 agenda.

Matthew Filipowicz with Julianna Forlano: The problem with gerrymandering.

Honest Political Ads: Health Care costs.

Gunz:

• Red State Update: Arm Christians, beg God not to smite us
• Mark Fiore: Gun Logic
• Larry Wilmore: America’s conversation about not talking about guns.
• Thom Politically Corrects Rush on guns
• Obama speaks after meeting with Oregon victim families
• Jonathan Mann: Gather all the guns.
• Ann Telnaes: Want real gun reform? Get money out of politics
• Young Turks: Bystander opens fire on shoplifter

Ann Telnaes: Which way will the Supreme Court swing this term?

Mental Floss: 24 ridiculous lawsuits.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Please join us this evening for a feast of politics…and a beer at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. The Long Beach, Tri-Cities and West Seattle chapters also meet tonight. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. And the Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 183 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Pontifical Politics:

• David Pakman: Vatican admits Pope met with bigot Kim Davis.
• Chris Hayes: Dan Savage on Pope’s meeting with Kim Davis.
• Sam Seder: Vatican on the Kim Davis and Pope meeting
• Young Turks: Pope met with gay couple, too.
• Bill Maher and friends on the Pope.
• Matthew Filipowicz: Republican reacts to Pope’s visit:

David Pakman: Christian hate group leader wants “Christian Sharia” forced conversion of immigrants.

Mental Floss: 26 fun facts about money

The 2016 Clown Parade:

• Red State Update: Which Candidate really believes in God.
• Larry Wilmore: Jeb’s “Black Voters” and “free stuff” association.
• David Pakman: Jeb Bush doesn’t understand his own tax plan.
• Sam Seder: Remember when Carly Fiorina joked about her opponent’s looks?
• Nutburger Ted Cruz threatens to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader
• David Pakman: Rick Santorum confused about marriage and children.
• Sam Seder: Ben Carson’s handler, “This interview is OVER”
• Farron Cousins: Ben Carson thrives on hate.
• Can bigotry help Trump or Carson win the G.O.P. nomination?
• The Trump boys defend their dad.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Trump’s $12 Trillion tax “plan”
• Young Turks: The Donald flip-flops, would send Syrian Refugees back
• David Pakman: Trump’s tax plan is a deficit-exploding fantasy
• Empire by Trump deodorant.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Poll shows “Idiot” comes to mind when people think of Trump

• When Trump was single.

What UN delegates really hear through their translators.

ANOTHER Goddamned Mass Shooting?!?

• Obama addresses mass shooting
• Obama’s response to Jeb’s “stuff happens” comment.
• Maddow: Obama angry as America replays gun massacre routine
• Sam Seder: It is time to politicize America’s gun violence crisis.
• PsychoSuperMom: They Say “People, Not Guns, Kill People” (But Honey, The Gun Sure Helps!)
• Young Turks: Obama’s reaction to the shooting
• Remembering the victims
• Sam Seder: What will it take until America wakes up?
• Fire Wayne LaPierre: You didn’t sign up for this shit.
• PSA: How to not murder someone:

David Pakman: Nut-case Rush Limbaugh thinks finding of water on Mars is a Left Wing Conspiracy.

A painfully accurate drug commercial.

A Startling Admission!

• Chris Hayes: Next GOP Speaker admits the shameful truth about the phony Benghazi “scandal”
• David Pakman: Majority leader admits that Benghazi scandal was all about hurting Hillary
• Young Turks: Oopsie! Proof that the Benghazi “scandal” was manufactured to hurt Hillary Clinton
• Maddow: New Speaker admits Benghazi investigation is phoney
• Hillary Clinton on McCarthy’s admission about Benghazi “investigation”

Young Turks: Shameful Congress leaves town without passing 9/11 first responded bill.

Thom: Alabama toughens rules for voting while Black.

Planned Parenthood Politics:

• Young Turks: Carly Fiorina invented horrible story in order to defund Planned Parenthood
• Chris Hayes: Carly Lies!
• Maddow: Planned Parenthood president stands up to House GOP grilling
• David Pakman: Foolish Republican doesn’t have a clue about Planned Parenthood
• Pelosi chastises nutjob reporter over abortion question
• Sam Seder: Watch this idiot G.O.P. Congressman get totally embarrassed by Planned Parenthood Chief
• Young Turks: Planned Parenthood Prez. schools idiot Congressman.
• Seth Meyers: Planned Parenthood argument makes GOP look silly …well, sillier
• Larry Wilmore: Late term distortions — Cecile Richards before Congress
• Sam Seder: Idiot G.O.P. Congressman, “As a guy, I don’t need Planned Parenthood.”
• Young Turks: Idiot Congressman on Planned Parenthood

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about climate change.

White House: West Wing Week.

Smoker of the House:

• Anne Telnaes: Boehner to exit Congress with a little help of his friends.
• Mark Fiore: Speaker Rock replaces Boehner.
• Matthew Filipowicz with Robin MartyThe GOP’s next abortion target after Planned Parenthood
• Sam Seder: Crazy Peter King freaks out over not being the head Crazy
• Harry Reid will miss Boehner’s cigarettes.
• Thom: Seditionists shouldn’t be Speaker of the House!:

The perfect phone for filming police brutality.

Farron Cousins: Elizabeth Warren slams trickle down myth on Colbert’s show

Who did Hillary email?

The Daily Show is Back:

• How did Trevor Noah do?
• The Daily Show asks are cops racist?
• Trevor: Obama meets Putin and awkward happens
• The Daily Show returns without Jon
• The Daily Show: Recap of Trevor’s first week

Farron Cousins: The G.O.P.’s “obstruction of Justice”.

How US companies profit from war.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s Tuesday. And in Seattle that means Drinking Liberally. So please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 183 chapters of Living Liberally, including seventeen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Honest Political ads: Gil Fulbright for President.

Hassan Rouhani’s true feelings about the Iran Nuclear deal.

Roy Zimmerman: Give Measles a Chance:

Young Turks: Majority of Iowa Republicans want to ban Islam…because, religious freedom.

Mental Floss: 28 interesting facts about inventors.

The 2016 Clown Parade:

• Farron Cousins: Let’s face it…if ANY one of the GOP candidates win in 2016, we are SCREWED.
• Last man on earth runs for President
• Red State Update: Debriefing after the G.O.P. debate
• Young Turks: Trump to FAUX News, “You’re cut off!”
• Donald sabotages wife’s interview.
• Young Turks: Trump tries to convince Christians he actually believes this crap
• Chris Hayes: Trump falters, lashes out at FAUX News & whines.
• Sam Seder: Trump’s ultimate insult to Marco Rubio
• Colbert shuts down Trump on birferism.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Why Trump’s Birferism is so important.
• Maddow: Trump competence in question as “veterans” group event exposed as illegal.
• Matthew Filipowicz: Whose Islamophobia is worse? Ben Carson or Donald Trump?
• José Díaz-Balart: Carson and Trump fall out with Muslim voters.
• James Rustad: Ben the Friendly Fascist
• Farron Cousins and Sam Seder: Ben Carson shouldn’t quit his day job.
• Sam Seder: Ben Carson thinks a Muslim should not be president!
• Dear Dr. Carson, a Muslim CAN be President!
• White House reaction to Ben Carson’s anti-Muslim statement.
• Young Turks: Ben Carson thinks Satan invented the Big Bang theory
• Sam Seder and Farron Cousins: Will anti-Muslim tirade force Ben Carson out?
• Kareem Abdul Jabbar on Carson’s anti-Mulsim statement.
• James Rustad: Carly Fiorina.
• David Pakman: Hypocritical Carly Fiorina criticized her own opponent’s looks
• Pres. Scott Walker In Memoriam
• Young Turks: The real reason Walker dropped out.
• Sam Seder: Sorry Scott Walker, Sarah Palin is still the biggest quitter of all time
• Farron Cousins and Sam Seder: Scott Walker’s resignation and wealthy donors
• David Pakman: Scott Walker is OUT
• Maddow: With Walker out…who is next?
• Ted Cruz sound like the Church Lady
• Lawrence O’Donnell:Lying Ted Cruz’ “five unelected lawyers”
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Jeb Bush’s Mitt Romney moment.
• Young Turks: Silver spoon-fed Jeb Bush sick of poor people getting free stuff
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Jeb Bush’s mission for 2016 is to save his family from embarrassment.
• The GOP crisis of faith.

Ann Telnaes: The UN thinks Saudi Arabia is a defender of human rights.

Thom: The impact of a government shutdown.

Reformed Whores: Who should be on the $10 bill

Liberal Viewer: Will Kim Davis allow man to gay marry Jesus?

Pope Politics:

• Don’t miss the Pope’s whirlwind North American tour

!

• Thom: Greed is the “dung of the Devil”.
• Maddow: Pope Francis gives voice to immigrants’ plight
• The whole thing: Pope Francis addresses Congress
• Young Turks: Pope Frances makes Republicans cry.
• Farron Cousins and Sam Seder: Pope knows best on climate change.
• 28 cool facts about Pope Francis
• Pope Frances visits Congress and works both sides of the isle
• Mark Fiore: The Saint of small type.
• Ann Telnaes: Conservatives roll out a welcome mat to the Pope

How will the world end?

David Pakman: Recessions happen 4 times more frequently under Republicans:

Minute Physics: Why do we put telescopes in space?

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Gallinaceously Ugly!

Honest Political ads: The plan.

VSauce: Messages for the future.

Down Goes Boehner:

• Young Turks: Republicans lose their Boehner.
• Obama on Boehner resignation.
• Goodbye to John Boehner.
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Why John Boehner finally resigned
• Young Turks: Republicans elated over John Boehner’s resignation

White House: West Wing Week.

Mental Floss Misconceptions about the film industry.

Meet the new Nightly Show hire:

Young Turks: Is Ted Nugent being anti-Semitic on Facebook?

Today’s Daily Inspiration with Dick Cheney.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

First the pre-Drinking Liberally event: You are invited to a fundraiser for Seattle City Council Candidate Michael Maddux. Join your fellow progressives as Michael shares his vision for the future of Seattle. The BBQ will be fired up, the keg will be tapped, and plenty of great company will be on hand to share ideas about how to move Seattle forward. The 1995 ALDS Championship game will be shown, commercial free. All are Welcome…and bring a friend of two! The 6:30 pm fundraiser is at 2034 Minor Ave E, Seattle WA 98102.

Then join us a few blocks away at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern for the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. There we’ll share even more conversations about politics over a beverage. We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien and Bellingham chapters meet. The Spokane, Kent, and Woodinville chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including seventeen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Larry Wilmore: Debunking FAUX News’ mythical “War on Cops”.

Some kid’s bootleg South Park.

The 2016 Clown Show:

• Sam Seder with Digby: Everything you need to know about the CNN’s 2016 Republican Presidential Debate
• Young Turks: These Republicans are kinda goofy…
• A different Morning in America:

• Chris Hayes: Three Whoppers at the GOP Debate
• A presidential debate? Or a WWE smackdown?
• The second presidential debate war
• David Pakman: What happened in the 2nd debate?
• GOP Candidates lowlights and low-fives
• Larry Wilmore: GOP Debate #2…3 Hours You’ll Never Get Back
• Sam Seder: Trump supporter asks Donald, “When can we get rid of all the Muslims in America?”
• Maddow: Trump duped or worse in fundraiser speech to fake veterans group.
• Young Turks: Trump will be “looking into” getting rid of Muslims
• Funny or Die crashed the debate
• Can you handle the Trump Sandwich?
• Obama Riposte to Trump: “America Is Great Right Now”
• Flashback: Lewis Black on Donald Trump’s candidacy (in 2012).
• White House responds to Trump’s “Muslim” moment.
• Red State Update: Who are you voting for?
• Young Turks: Trump is lying about his tax plan.
• What Trump supporters are tired of hearing about Trump.
• Did Trump just say he would get rid of Muslims?
• WTF!!! Trump is “looking into” getting rid of Muslims?!?
• Mark Fiore: Your Trump tonight
• Ann Telnaes: Voters like Trump because he “tells it like it is.”
• When Arnold Schwarzenegger called Donald Trump
• Are Trump and Paul right about the legality of the Fourteenth Amendment?
• Trumping the immigration debate with the G.O.P.
• Sam Seder: Is Jeb Bush completely unaware that a Woman will actually soon be on U.S. currency?
• Jonathan Mann: Jeb Bush Smoked Some Weed
• Matthew Filipowicz: The real reason Jeb Bush wants to cut taxes for the rich
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Jeb Bush claims, “My brother George kept us safe!”
• Young Turks: Jeb Bush is just as crazy as the rest of the Republican Candidates
• Maddow: Jeb & Kasich were wall street banksters at Lehman!
• Sam Seder: Carly Fiorina is the anti-woman candidate
• Young Turks: Who was the biggest looser of the 2nd debate?
• Thom: Scott Walker’s plan to put a nail in the coffin of worker’s rights
• Young Turks: Never a better time than now to buy a new Scott Walker.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Yale Bus. Professor exposes Carly Fiorina at HP
• Richard Fowler: Ted Cruz doesn’t think that Black lives matter
• David Pakman: Who was the most ridiculous candidate at the 2nd debate?
• Ann Telnaes: Fiorina throws out some “red meat”
• PsychoSuperMom: The Very Model Of The Modern GOP Today:

• The Little Republicans: The 2nd GOP Debate

Matthew Filipowicz and Emily Atkin: Teabagger threat to Obamacare in Kentucky.

Mental Floss: 24 facts about musicals.

Larry Wilmore: County jerk’s office and Oath Keepers.

Liberal Viewer: Megyn Kelly wrong on law defending Kim Davis, anti-gay KY County Clerk.

Matt Binder: Jade Helm ends…without a hostile take-over.

Boy Builds Clock…Bigot’s Heads Explode:

• Muslim kid arrested for bringing home made clock to school
• Ahmed Mohamed was arrested for a clock and then broke the internet
• Young Turks: Ahmed Mohamed gets invited to White House and Bristol Palin has a sad.
• Larry Wilmore: Ahmed Mohamed’s controversial arrest
• Matthew Filipowicz: Exclusive interview with school that had Ahmed Mohamed arrested
• Sam Seder: How Islamophobia led to the arrest of a 14 year old Muslim boy who made a clock

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about disease.

Greenman: Lonnie and Koni, Senior glaciologists on climate change.

VSauce: The Zipf mystery.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Helobiously Ugly!

U.S. Closed for Business:

• Pelosi: “Shutting down Government is [their] goal’
• Reid: GOP “Walking us right into another shutdown”
• Matthew Filipowicz and Emily Atkin: Will Republicans shut down the government over Planned Parenthood?

Sam Seder and Farron Cousins: It’s 2015 and the Wingdings are STILL talking about BENGHAAAAAZZZZZIIIIIII!!!1!!11!

White House: West Wing Week.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the Week.

Minute Physics: Why it’s impossible to tune a piano.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Paul
97.7% probability of winning	2.3% probability of winning
Mean of 329 electoral votes	Mean of 209 electoral votes

Previous analyses shows that former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are performing reasonably well (even if losing) against Hillary Clinton in a electoral college election that uses state polling. We might label Bush and Rubio as “top-tier” candidates, except that neither are leading in the G.O.P. primary. Still…they are a threat to Clinton.

Then there is the bottom tier. Certainly, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) falls into this category based on his abysmal performance against Clinton (0.5% probability of winning to Clinton’s 99.5%).

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) must also be relegated to the bottom of the Republican primary heap, although in fairness, he is doing much better than Walker. Not really a threat, though.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,668 times and Paul wins 2,332 times (including the 99 ties). Clinton received (on average) 329 to Paul’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.7% probability of winning and Paul would have a 2.3% probability of winning.

Paul is losing in FL, NC, VA, PA, MI, WI, IA, GA, NM and NV, and he is leading, but isn’t really doing that well in his home state of KY.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets this evening. Please join us in conversations about politics from local to international. New ideas and insights are welcomed!

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including seventeen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

White House: Govt. shutdown ultimatum.

Mental Floss: 33 unusual old remedies.

Louder Crowder: Rouge guns.

Stephen Is Back:

• Stephen: Play Ball!
• Stephen: All you can Trump buffet
• Stephen does Joe
• Colbert’s late show premier was good.
• Stephen: Jeb says something nice about Obama
• Stephen: Jeb gets his Trump on

Scientists discover a new species of extinct humans.

Greenman: Palin on her dream job with Trump.

John Oliver on back to school.

Thom: Planned Parenthood and government shutdown.

The 2016 Clown Show:

• Maddow plays Gutterball: A dive to the bottom of 2016’s primary polling
• David Pakman thinks the SUSA poll showing Trump beating a Democrat is horseshit.
• Young Turks: Trump on Carly Fiorina: “Look at that face…would anyone vote for that?”
• David Pakman: Glenn Beck tries to convince Bill-O-The_Clown that Trump is a “progressive”.
• The Mexican Donald Trump
• Trump: The Negotiator:

• Chris Hayes: Trump rips Carson, Fiorina and Jindal in circular firing squad
• Sam Seder: Oh-oh, Christie. Mentor resigns as airline CEO
• Sam Seder: Ben Carson’s war on women’s innards
• David Pakman: Ben Carson gets his homophobia on

Thom: Big Business deploys a new weapon against workers.

Pelosi slams fed court ruling on GOP’s latest ObamaCare lawsuit.

Grace Para: Labor Day

9/11

• The White House commemorates the anniversary of 9/11
• Young Turks: What does “never forget” really mean?
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Remembering 9/11 and the aftermath.
• Obama’s 9/11 story

Farron Cousins: Environmentalists get tough on climate deniers.

The history of the Wingdings font.

David Pakman: Sarah Palin tells immigrants to “seek American”.

Mental Floss: Where did we get the name America?

Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Iran:

• Dick Cheney: Wrong then, Wrong Now
• Sam Seder: Louie Gohmert will “resign” to stop Iran deal
• Maddow: Republican anti-Iran deal plan falls apart despite rally spectacle
• FAUX News has been pushing war with Iran for a decade
• Sam Seder: You won’t believe why Donald Trump thinks Obama “failed” on the Iran deal
• Liberal Viewer: Ted Cruz explains “existentialism”
• PsychoSuperMom: The Iran Nuclear Deal Rag
• Young Turks: Anti-Iran deal rally draws few
• Sam Seder: Sarah Palin outdoes herself—insanity!
• Chris Hayes with Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Dick Cheney has lost his mind
• White House doubles down on 17 Sept deadline for Iran vote
• Young Turks: Republicans cannot stop the Iran nuclear deal

Uber drivers: Are they screwed?

Mark Fiore: Tragic Numbers.

Matthew Filipowicz: Police group claims protests against police violence causes more violence :

Thom: Clinton wants to overturn Citizen’s United.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Maddow: Obama’s big finish.

Farron Cousins: Teabaggers push Mitch McConnell into fights he cannot win

Reformed Whores: Back To School For Sarah Palin.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kim Davis is a Bigot:

• Larry Wilmore: County Jerk’s office
• Sam Seder: Huckabee staffer blocks Ted Cruz at Kim Davis rally
• Young Turks: Huckabee, “Yeah…this was OUR event…”
• Maddow: Ted Cruz boxed out of Kim Davis media stunt
• God wants you to vote for Kim Davis
• David Pakman: Mike Huckabee (and Ted Cruz) celebrate bigotry at Kim Davis rally
• Farron Cousins and Sam Seder: Bottom feeder Republicans Cling to lunatic Kim Davis

Matthew Filipowicz: What happens when scientists re-test denier’s science.

Thom: Are Republicans committing environmental treason?

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about money.

Daily Inspiration with Dick Cheney.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and polite conversation over a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle on Tuesday night? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet on Tuesday. Wednesday the Bellingham chapter meets. And the Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Clinton	Rubio
64.7% probability of winning	35.3% probability of winning
Mean of 280 electoral votes	Mean of 258 electoral votes

Sen. Marco Rubio is one of three major G.O.P. candidates out of Florida (along with Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee). This should provide him with a general election advantage of providing a strong showing in this important swing state. The most recent Florida poll, taken in the second week of August, has Rubio leading Hillary Clinton by +12.

In fact, Rubio leads in the most recent polling in the other two classic swing states of Ohio (+2) and Pennsylvania (+7). It hasn’t always been that way. For the past year, Clinton has generally held solid leads in all three swing states, only to lose all three leads over the summer:

So how is it that Clinton can be behind in these three swing states and still lead? It’s because she leads in Wisconsin (+12), Virginia (+1), Texas (+1), Louisiana (+3) and Georgia (+3). Virginia is the only state with a recent poll. Of states with older polls, Wisconsin is at least plausible, but Texas, Louisiana and Georgia seem unlikely to swing blue in 2016.

Clearly, much more polling is needed to get a feel for where the race is at. Clinton has certainly lost ground over the summer, and this is probably a function of two things. First, voters are familiarizing themselves with, and getting used to the idea of voting for Marco Rubio. Second, Clinton has had a terrible summer from the perspective of national popularity. For most of the summer, what news we’ve heard about Clinton, has been largely negative.

The Clinton campaign has been disconnected from a general election audience, as her campaign focuses on another important aspect of the race. They have spent the summer quietly locking up superdelegates, almost guaranteeing her the Democratic nomination. The trade-off for a lousy summer is that the campaign will be freed up early to focus on the care and feeding of general election voters while the Republicans bludgeon their way through an unappealing primary.

Republicans have a very different nomination structure, they don’t have superdelegates, and the dynamics of their over-populated primary are entirely different, so that campaigns have spent the summer attempting to maximize positive news cycles (or, in the case of Donald Trump, positive or negative news cycles). This has allowed the top contenders to “catch-up” to Clinton and, given some more recent polling, possibly top her.

For the polling we have now, however, Clinton holds a thin lead. After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton won 64,668 and Rubio won 35,332 times (including the 1,511 ties). Clinton received (on average) 280 to Rubio’s 258 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 64.7% probability of winning and Rubio would have a 35.3% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Kimmel asks people “Do you think President Obama is a Muslim?

Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Glenn Beck’s TheBlaze is imploding.

Obama: Why I went to Alaska.

Color-blind people see color for the first time.

Thom: Col. Wilkerson: “Dick Cheney is an idiot,” and he “should be in jail for war crimes!”

Greenman: We are the asteriod.

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about social media.

2016 Clowns On Parade:

• Pap and Thom: Dr. Ben Carson is a medical malpractice nightmare
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Right wingers are blaming liberals for Trump.
• David Pakman: Republicans like Obama’s ideas better when they think they’re Donald Trump’s
• Young Turks: The real reason Donald Trump is rich.
• Kimmel: 2016 Candidate, The Donald, and 2020 Candidate Kanye, give the same speech
• Jonathan Mann: Donald Trump Was An Anchor Baby:

• Sam Seder: Does Donald Trump know something we don’t know about the Iran deal?
• Young Turks: Trump supporters are fucking out-of-their-gourd CCCRAAAAZZZZZZYYYYYY!!!!!
• Maddow: Trump screwed up on his RNC pledge
• David Pakman: The Donald is wrong. The U.S. is not the most highly taxed country in the world.
• Thom and Pap: Trump bullying gets nastier
• Young Turks: Trump will totally learn things…after getting elected.
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: The Donald Trump—Ted Cruz bromance.
• Young Turks: Ted (whack-a-doodle) Cruz blames Obama for police shooting.
• Farron Cousins: Religious right is keeping Ted Cruz’s campaign alive
• Sam Seder: The Iran Deal has Lindsey Graham all in a hissy fit.
• Young Turks: Rick Perry’s campaign staff abandoning a sinking ship
• Farron Cousins: Millionaires have been wasting money on second string GOP wannabes.
• Ann Telnaes: Scott Walker’s Canadian border wall
• Sam Seder: Scott Walker wants to build a fence on the U.S. Canadian border
• Farron Cousins: Chris Christie wants to track immigrants like fed-ex packages
• Young Turks: How to unlock the Easter Egg in Rand Paul’s selfie app
• Maddow: Bush picks a fight with Stephen Colbert

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ludicropatheticly Ugly!.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News asks if #BlackLivesMatter is a hate group.

Congressional Hits and Misses: Hank Johnson edition.

Thom: Thomas Edison was right about solar energy.

Mental Floss: Unusual political parties:

Rare sea creature found off the coast of Papua New Guinea.

Mark Fiore: Obama drills.

Kim Davis, the Thrice Divorced, Four-times Married, Known Adulterer Refuses to Issue Same-Sex Marriage Licenses:

• Dan Savage nails it on the hypocrisy
• Young Turks: Kim Davis will not be signing marriage certificates because she is in jail.
• PsychoSuperMom: Homophobe Tango (She Had It Coming)
• Bigot Kim Davis is jailed
• Young Turks: Conservatives rally behind jailed marriage clerk
• Sam Seder: Surprise, surprise…Kim Davis is a huge hypocrite.
• Alex Wagner with Dan Savage on Kentucky bigot clerk:

David Pakman: States with the strictest gun laws have lowest rates of gun-related deaths.

Thom: How China messes with American labor.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins: Even Bush-appointed judges agree that voter ID laws are racist.

David Pakman: Democratic Party adopts $15/hr minimum wage to national platform.

Greenman: One day at the wind farm.

Obama views glacier melting from climate change.

Sam Seder: Conservatives know the real reason Obama renamed Denali

Richard Fowler: ObamaCare is working, and the proof is insane.

Thom: The Good, The Bad and The Very, Very Rakehelly Ugly!

David Pakman: Mike Huckabee: Planned Parenthood is like ISIS…

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Walker
99.5% probability of winning	0.5% probability of winning
Mean of 317 electoral votes	Mean of 221 electoral votes

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) started out the election season with much buzz. But at this point, pollsters seem less interested in him, so there isn’t a lot of really current polling that pits him against a Democrat. There are only 83 state polls matching up Walker to Hillary Clinton (Jeb Bush has 212 such polls). Consequently, Walker at a bit of a disadvantage, since most of the polls were taken when Clinton was polling more strongly against all opponents.

No biggie…this is a shakedown for these analyses, so I’ll post it with the caveat that there just isn’t enough recent polling for this match-up. Perhaps pollsters will soon find reason to be more interested in the Governor.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,503 times and Walker wins 497 times (including the 103 ties). Clinton received (on average) 317 to Walker’s 221 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.5% probability of winning and Walker would have a 0.5% probability of winning.

Clinton tends to win in the classic swing states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan as well as Nevada and New Mexico. But the most remarkable thing about these results is how poorly Walker does in his home state of Wisconsin. Here’s the polling picture:

[Read more…]