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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/22/15, 6:14 am

DLBottle

First the pre-Drinking Liberally event: You are invited to a fundraiser for Seattle City Council Candidate Michael Maddux. Join your fellow progressives as Michael shares his vision for the future of Seattle. The BBQ will be fired up, the keg will be tapped, and plenty of great company will be on hand to share ideas about how to move Seattle forward. The 1995 ALDS Championship game will be shown, commercial free. All are Welcome…and bring a friend of two! The 6:30 pm fundraiser is at 2034 Minor Ave E, Seattle WA 98102.

Then join us a few blocks away at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern for the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. There we’ll share even more conversations about politics over a beverage. We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien and Bellingham chapters meet. The Spokane, Kent, and Woodinville chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including seventeen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 9/19/15, 12:15 am

Larry Wilmore: Debunking FAUX News’ mythical “War on Cops”.

Some kid’s bootleg South Park.

The 2016 Clown Show:

  • Sam Seder with Digby: Everything you need to know about the CNN’s 2016 Republican Presidential Debate
  • Young Turks: These Republicans are kinda goofy…
  • A different Morning in America:

  • Chris Hayes: Three Whoppers at the GOP Debate
  • A presidential debate? Or a WWE smackdown?
  • The second presidential debate war
  • David Pakman: What happened in the 2nd debate?
  • GOP Candidates lowlights and low-fives
  • Larry Wilmore: GOP Debate #2…3 Hours You’ll Never Get Back
  • Sam Seder: Trump supporter asks Donald, “When can we get rid of all the Muslims in America?”
  • Maddow: Trump duped or worse in fundraiser speech to fake veterans group.
  • Young Turks: Trump will be “looking into” getting rid of Muslims
  • Funny or Die crashed the debate
  • Can you handle the Trump Sandwich?
  • Obama Riposte to Trump: “America Is Great Right Now”
  • Flashback: Lewis Black on Donald Trump’s candidacy (in 2012).
  • White House responds to Trump’s “Muslim” moment.
  • Red State Update: Who are you voting for?
  • Young Turks: Trump is lying about his tax plan.
  • What Trump supporters are tired of hearing about Trump.
  • Did Trump just say he would get rid of Muslims?
  • WTF!!! Trump is “looking into” getting rid of Muslims?!?
  • Mark Fiore: Your Trump tonight
  • Ann Telnaes: Voters like Trump because he “tells it like it is.”
  • When Arnold Schwarzenegger called Donald Trump
  • Are Trump and Paul right about the legality of the Fourteenth Amendment?
  • Trumping the immigration debate with the G.O.P.
  • Sam Seder: Is Jeb Bush completely unaware that a Woman will actually soon be on U.S. currency?
  • Jonathan Mann: Jeb Bush Smoked Some Weed
  • Matthew Filipowicz: The real reason Jeb Bush wants to cut taxes for the rich
  • Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Jeb Bush claims, “My brother George kept us safe!”
  • Young Turks: Jeb Bush is just as crazy as the rest of the Republican Candidates
  • Maddow: Jeb & Kasich were wall street banksters at Lehman!
  • Sam Seder: Carly Fiorina is the anti-woman candidate
  • Young Turks: Who was the biggest looser of the 2nd debate?
  • Thom: Scott Walker’s plan to put a nail in the coffin of worker’s rights
  • Young Turks: Never a better time than now to buy a new Scott Walker.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Yale Bus. Professor exposes Carly Fiorina at HP
  • Richard Fowler: Ted Cruz doesn’t think that Black lives matter
  • David Pakman: Who was the most ridiculous candidate at the 2nd debate?
  • Ann Telnaes: Fiorina throws out some “red meat”
  • PsychoSuperMom: The Very Model Of The Modern GOP Today:

  • The Little Republicans: The 2nd GOP Debate

Matthew Filipowicz and Emily Atkin: Teabagger threat to Obamacare in Kentucky.

Mental Floss: 24 facts about musicals.

Larry Wilmore: County jerk’s office and Oath Keepers.

Liberal Viewer: Megyn Kelly wrong on law defending Kim Davis, anti-gay KY County Clerk.

Matt Binder: Jade Helm ends…without a hostile take-over.

Boy Builds Clock…Bigot’s Heads Explode:

  • Muslim kid arrested for bringing home made clock to school
  • Ahmed Mohamed was arrested for a clock and then broke the internet
  • Young Turks: Ahmed Mohamed gets invited to White House and Bristol Palin has a sad.
  • Larry Wilmore: Ahmed Mohamed’s controversial arrest
  • Matthew Filipowicz: Exclusive interview with school that had Ahmed Mohamed arrested
  • Sam Seder: How Islamophobia led to the arrest of a 14 year old Muslim boy who made a clock

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about disease.

Greenman: Lonnie and Koni, Senior glaciologists on climate change.

VSauce: The Zipf mystery.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Helobiously Ugly!

U.S. Closed for Business:

  • Pelosi: “Shutting down Government is [their] goal’
  • Reid: GOP “Walking us right into another shutdown”
  • Matthew Filipowicz and Emily Atkin: Will Republicans shut down the government over Planned Parenthood?

Sam Seder and Farron Cousins: It’s 2015 and the Wingdings are STILL talking about BENGHAAAAAZZZZZIIIIIII!!!1!!11!

White House: West Wing Week.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the Week.

Minute Physics: Why it’s impossible to tune a piano.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Clinton versus Paul

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/17/15, 9:50 pm

Clinton
Paul
97.7% probability of winning
2.3% probability of winning
Mean of 329 electoral votes
Mean of 209 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Previous analyses shows that former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are performing reasonably well (even if losing) against Hillary Clinton in a electoral college election that uses state polling. We might label Bush and Rubio as “top-tier” candidates, except that neither are leading in the G.O.P. primary. Still…they are a threat to Clinton.

Then there is the bottom tier. Certainly, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) falls into this category based on his abysmal performance against Clinton (0.5% probability of winning to Clinton’s 99.5%).

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) must also be relegated to the bottom of the Republican primary heap, although in fairness, he is doing much better than Walker. Not really a threat, though.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,668 times and Paul wins 2,332 times (including the 99 ties). Clinton received (on average) 329 to Paul’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.7% probability of winning and Paul would have a 2.3% probability of winning.

Paul is losing in FL, NC, VA, PA, MI, WI, IA, GA, NM and NV, and he is leading, but isn’t really doing that well in his home state of KY.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/15/15, 6:30 am

DLBottle

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets this evening. Please join us in conversations about politics from local to international. New ideas and insights are welcomed!

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including seventeen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 9/11/15, 11:39 pm

White House: Govt. shutdown ultimatum.

Mental Floss: 33 unusual old remedies.

Louder Crowder: Rouge guns.

Stephen Is Back:

  • Stephen: Play Ball!
  • Stephen: All you can Trump buffet
  • Stephen does Joe
  • Colbert’s late show premier was good.
  • Stephen: Jeb says something nice about Obama
  • Stephen: Jeb gets his Trump on

Scientists discover a new species of extinct humans.

Greenman: Palin on her dream job with Trump.

John Oliver on back to school.

Thom: Planned Parenthood and government shutdown.

The 2016 Clown Show:

  • Maddow plays Gutterball: A dive to the bottom of 2016’s primary polling
  • David Pakman thinks the SUSA poll showing Trump beating a Democrat is horseshit.
  • Young Turks: Trump on Carly Fiorina: “Look at that face…would anyone vote for that?”
  • David Pakman: Glenn Beck tries to convince Bill-O-The_Clown that Trump is a “progressive”.
  • The Mexican Donald Trump
  • Trump: The Negotiator:

  • Chris Hayes: Trump rips Carson, Fiorina and Jindal in circular firing squad
  • Sam Seder: Oh-oh, Christie. Mentor resigns as airline CEO
  • Sam Seder: Ben Carson’s war on women’s innards
  • David Pakman: Ben Carson gets his homophobia on

Thom: Big Business deploys a new weapon against workers.

Pelosi slams fed court ruling on GOP’s latest ObamaCare lawsuit.

Grace Para: Labor Day

9/11

  • The White House commemorates the anniversary of 9/11
  • Young Turks: What does “never forget” really mean?
  • Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Remembering 9/11 and the aftermath.
  • Obama’s 9/11 story

Farron Cousins: Environmentalists get tough on climate deniers.

The history of the Wingdings font.

David Pakman: Sarah Palin tells immigrants to “seek American”.

Mental Floss: Where did we get the name America?

Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Iran:

  • Dick Cheney: Wrong then, Wrong Now
  • Sam Seder: Louie Gohmert will “resign” to stop Iran deal
  • Maddow: Republican anti-Iran deal plan falls apart despite rally spectacle
  • FAUX News has been pushing war with Iran for a decade
  • Sam Seder: You won’t believe why Donald Trump thinks Obama “failed” on the Iran deal
  • Liberal Viewer: Ted Cruz explains “existentialism”
  • PsychoSuperMom: The Iran Nuclear Deal Rag
  • Young Turks: Anti-Iran deal rally draws few
  • Sam Seder: Sarah Palin outdoes herself—insanity!
  • Chris Hayes with Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Dick Cheney has lost his mind
  • White House doubles down on 17 Sept deadline for Iran vote
  • Young Turks: Republicans cannot stop the Iran nuclear deal

Uber drivers: Are they screwed?

Mark Fiore: Tragic Numbers.

Matthew Filipowicz: Police group claims protests against police violence causes more violence :

Thom: Clinton wants to overturn Citizen’s United.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Maddow: Obama’s big finish.

Farron Cousins: Teabaggers push Mitch McConnell into fights he cannot win

Reformed Whores: Back To School For Sarah Palin.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kim Davis is a Bigot:

  • Larry Wilmore: County Jerk’s office
  • Sam Seder: Huckabee staffer blocks Ted Cruz at Kim Davis rally
  • Young Turks: Huckabee, “Yeah…this was OUR event…”
  • Maddow: Ted Cruz boxed out of Kim Davis media stunt
  • God wants you to vote for Kim Davis
  • David Pakman: Mike Huckabee (and Ted Cruz) celebrate bigotry at Kim Davis rally
  • Farron Cousins and Sam Seder: Bottom feeder Republicans Cling to lunatic Kim Davis

Matthew Filipowicz: What happens when scientists re-test denier’s science.

Thom: Are Republicans committing environmental treason?

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about money.

Daily Inspiration with Dick Cheney.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/8/15, 6:15 am

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and polite conversation over a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.




Can’t make it to Seattle on Tuesday night? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet on Tuesday. Wednesday the Bellingham chapter meets. And the Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

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Poll Analysis: Clinton leads Rubio

by Darryl — Monday, 9/7/15, 10:04 am

Clinton
Rubio
64.7% probability of winning
35.3% probability of winning
Mean of 280 electoral votes
Mean of 258 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Sen. Marco Rubio is one of three major G.O.P. candidates out of Florida (along with Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee). This should provide him with a general election advantage of providing a strong showing in this important swing state. The most recent Florida poll, taken in the second week of August, has Rubio leading Hillary Clinton by +12.

In fact, Rubio leads in the most recent polling in the other two classic swing states of Ohio (+2) and Pennsylvania (+7). It hasn’t always been that way. For the past year, Clinton has generally held solid leads in all three swing states, only to lose all three leads over the summer:

ClintonRubio07Aug15-07Sep15Florida

ClintonRubio07Aug15-07Sep15Ohio

ClintonRubio07Aug15-07Sep15Pennsylvania

So how is it that Clinton can be behind in these three swing states and still lead? It’s because she leads in Wisconsin (+12), Virginia (+1), Texas (+1), Louisiana (+3) and Georgia (+3). Virginia is the only state with a recent poll. Of states with older polls, Wisconsin is at least plausible, but Texas, Louisiana and Georgia seem unlikely to swing blue in 2016.

Clearly, much more polling is needed to get a feel for where the race is at. Clinton has certainly lost ground over the summer, and this is probably a function of two things. First, voters are familiarizing themselves with, and getting used to the idea of voting for Marco Rubio. Second, Clinton has had a terrible summer from the perspective of national popularity. For most of the summer, what news we’ve heard about Clinton, has been largely negative.

The Clinton campaign has been disconnected from a general election audience, as her campaign focuses on another important aspect of the race. They have spent the summer quietly locking up superdelegates, almost guaranteeing her the Democratic nomination. The trade-off for a lousy summer is that the campaign will be freed up early to focus on the care and feeding of general election voters while the Republicans bludgeon their way through an unappealing primary.

Republicans have a very different nomination structure, they don’t have superdelegates, and the dynamics of their over-populated primary are entirely different, so that campaigns have spent the summer attempting to maximize positive news cycles (or, in the case of Donald Trump, positive or negative news cycles). This has allowed the top contenders to “catch-up” to Clinton and, given some more recent polling, possibly top her.

For the polling we have now, however, Clinton holds a thin lead. After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton won 64,668 and Rubio won 35,332 times (including the 1,511 ties). Clinton received (on average) 280 to Rubio’s 258 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 64.7% probability of winning and Rubio would have a 35.3% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 9/5/15, 12:48 am

Kimmel asks people “Do you think President Obama is a Muslim?

Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Glenn Beck’s TheBlaze is imploding.

Obama: Why I went to Alaska.

Color-blind people see color for the first time.

Thom: Col. Wilkerson: “Dick Cheney is an idiot,” and he “should be in jail for war crimes!”

Greenman: We are the asteriod.

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about social media.

2016 Clowns On Parade:

  • Pap and Thom: Dr. Ben Carson is a medical malpractice nightmare
  • Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Right wingers are blaming liberals for Trump.
  • David Pakman: Republicans like Obama’s ideas better when they think they’re Donald Trump’s
  • Young Turks: The real reason Donald Trump is rich.
  • Kimmel: 2016 Candidate, The Donald, and 2020 Candidate Kanye, give the same speech
  • Jonathan Mann: Donald Trump Was An Anchor Baby:

  • Sam Seder: Does Donald Trump know something we don’t know about the Iran deal?
  • Young Turks: Trump supporters are fucking out-of-their-gourd CCCRAAAAZZZZZZYYYYYY!!!!!
  • Maddow: Trump screwed up on his RNC pledge
  • David Pakman: The Donald is wrong. The U.S. is not the most highly taxed country in the world.
  • Thom and Pap: Trump bullying gets nastier
  • Young Turks: Trump will totally learn things…after getting elected.
  • Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: The Donald Trump—Ted Cruz bromance.
  • Young Turks: Ted (whack-a-doodle) Cruz blames Obama for police shooting.
  • Farron Cousins: Religious right is keeping Ted Cruz’s campaign alive
  • Sam Seder: The Iran Deal has Lindsey Graham all in a hissy fit.
  • Young Turks: Rick Perry’s campaign staff abandoning a sinking ship
  • Farron Cousins: Millionaires have been wasting money on second string GOP wannabes.
  • Ann Telnaes: Scott Walker’s Canadian border wall
  • Sam Seder: Scott Walker wants to build a fence on the U.S. Canadian border
  • Farron Cousins: Chris Christie wants to track immigrants like fed-ex packages
  • Young Turks: How to unlock the Easter Egg in Rand Paul’s selfie app
  • Maddow: Bush picks a fight with Stephen Colbert

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ludicropatheticly Ugly!.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News asks if #BlackLivesMatter is a hate group.

Congressional Hits and Misses: Hank Johnson edition.

Thom: Thomas Edison was right about solar energy.

Mental Floss: Unusual political parties:

Rare sea creature found off the coast of Papua New Guinea.

Mark Fiore: Obama drills.

Kim Davis, the Thrice Divorced, Four-times Married, Known Adulterer Refuses to Issue Same-Sex Marriage Licenses:

  • Dan Savage nails it on the hypocrisy
  • Young Turks: Kim Davis will not be signing marriage certificates because she is in jail.
  • PsychoSuperMom: Homophobe Tango (She Had It Coming)
  • Bigot Kim Davis is jailed
  • Young Turks: Conservatives rally behind jailed marriage clerk
  • Sam Seder: Surprise, surprise…Kim Davis is a huge hypocrite.
  • Alex Wagner with Dan Savage on Kentucky bigot clerk:

David Pakman: States with the strictest gun laws have lowest rates of gun-related deaths.

Thom: How China messes with American labor.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins: Even Bush-appointed judges agree that voter ID laws are racist.

David Pakman: Democratic Party adopts $15/hr minimum wage to national platform.

Greenman: One day at the wind farm.

Obama views glacier melting from climate change.

Sam Seder: Conservatives know the real reason Obama renamed Denali

Richard Fowler: ObamaCare is working, and the proof is insane.

Thom: The Good, The Bad and The Very, Very Rakehelly Ugly!

David Pakman: Mike Huckabee: Planned Parenthood is like ISIS…

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Clinton trumps Walker

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/2/15, 10:34 pm

Clinton
Walker
99.5% probability of winning
0.5% probability of winning
Mean of 317 electoral votes
Mean of 221 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) started out the election season with much buzz. But at this point, pollsters seem less interested in him, so there isn’t a lot of really current polling that pits him against a Democrat. There are only 83 state polls matching up Walker to Hillary Clinton (Jeb Bush has 212 such polls). Consequently, Walker at a bit of a disadvantage, since most of the polls were taken when Clinton was polling more strongly against all opponents.

No biggie…this is a shakedown for these analyses, so I’ll post it with the caveat that there just isn’t enough recent polling for this match-up. Perhaps pollsters will soon find reason to be more interested in the Governor.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,503 times and Walker wins 497 times (including the 103 ties). Clinton received (on average) 317 to Walker’s 221 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.5% probability of winning and Walker would have a 0.5% probability of winning.

Clinton tends to win in the classic swing states of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan as well as Nevada and New Mexico. But the most remarkable thing about these results is how poorly Walker does in his home state of Wisconsin. Here’s the polling picture:

[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/1/15, 6:17 am

DLBottleIt’s Tuesday…and that’s Drinking Liberally night in Seattle. So please join us for an evening of politics over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. The Long Beach, Tri-Cities and West Seattle chapters also meet tonight. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

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Poll Analysis: Clinton–Bush head-to-head state polls

by Darryl — Monday, 8/31/15, 5:03 pm

Clinton
Bush
56.0% probability of winning
44.0% probability of winning
Mean of 273 electoral votes
Mean of 265 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Poll analyses are back! Yes…after about four years of rest, I’ve decided to get back into the poll analysis business. If you are unfamiliar with my analyses, take a look at the FAQ. This is a shakedown run with a new HA template, so feel free to mention quirks or problems in the comment thread.

I’ve started with a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. I know, I know, it should be a match-up against Donald Trump instead of Bush. The problem is, there are a total of 20 state head-to-head polls available that match-up Hillary and Donald. For Clinton–Bush match-ups at the state level, there are 212 polls. Apparently, pollsters haven’t quite gotten serious about Trump. I expect that most state head-to-head polls will start including him, however.

For the same reason—lack of state head-to-head polling—I cannot really provide analyses for Sanders, O’Malley, Webb, Biden, Warren, Warner, Cuomo, Schweitzer, or any other Democrat (for now). I will, however, do Republicans other than Jeb Bush, because the polling exists.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Hillary Clinton wins 56,003 times and Bush wins 43,997 times (including the 2,369 ties, which go to the Republican for 2016). Clinton received (on average) 273 to Bush’s 265 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would be expected to win with a 56.0% probability and Bush with a 44.0% probability. That is a close result…damn near a tie.

I remind you that these analyses are driven by state head-to-head polls, not national polls. The state-wide polls are aggregated in a way that emulates the electoral college.

A peek at the long term trend is given after the jump….
[Read more…]

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 8/28/15, 11:32 pm

Mark Fiore: Smokey the Climate Scientist.

Mental Floss: Does ginger ale really help with stomach aches?

The 2016 Clown Show:

  • This is The Republican Party
  • Young Turks: Trump is in denial about his standing with Latinos.
  • Ann Telnaes: President Trump…Twitter troll-in-chief.
  • Jonathan Mann: Trump mocks Asian negotiators (remix):

  • Sam Seder: Trump is now openly mocking Asians
  • Donald Trump says “China” (234 times).
  • David Pakman: White Supremacists flock to Donald Trump
  • Farron Cousins: Donald Trump may put the final nail in the G.O.P. coffin
  • David Pakman: Former KKK Grand Wizard and G.O.P. Congressman David Duke supports Trump
  • Young Turks: Trump kicks Jorge Ramos out of press conference
  • David Pakman: Donald Trump kicks Jorge Ramos out of press conference
  • Donald Trump:“Positive influence?!?”
  • Maddow: Trump’s racial comments causing GOP approval ratings to crash
  • Young Turks: After Trump expels Jorge Ramos, Trump supporter tells Ramos to “Get out of my country!”
  • David Pakman: Trump supporter tells Hispanic-American reporter to “get out of MY country”
  • Kimmel: Trump’s newest ad
  • Sam: Trump vs. Luntz…the battle of the right-wing pinheads
  • Trump live-tweets The Kelly File
  • Trump’s big movie role.
  • Thom: A corporatist peek behind Trump
  • Is Donald Trump an evil wizard?
  • David Pakman: Does Donald Trump put an end to Republican ‘family values’ nonsense?
  • Sam Seder: Why Donald Trump is so dangerous
  • Maddow: Trump vs. FAUX News! Godzilla vs. Mothra!
  • Megyn Kelly Kicks the shit out of Donald Trump. Makes him bleed from…wherever
  • Young Turks: Trump v. FAUX News, Round 2
  • Chris Hayes: Trump stumped by Bible question
  • David Pakman: Trump’s brilliant answer to Bible verse question
  • PsychoSuperMom: Trump’s the monster the G.O.P. created.
  • Can Trump win without Latinos?
  • Young Turks: Sarah Palin will interview The Donald
  • Maddow: The Paul family scandal you don’t know about:

  • Farron Cousins: Jeb gets desperate, and turns to his brother for fundraising.
  • Jeb! and The Donald scuffle over “anchor babies”
  • Sam Seder: Jeb Bush…When I say anchor babies, I mean Asians!
  • Farron Cousins: Jeb Bush apparently hates Hispanics AND Asians
  • Sam Seder: To stop “evildoers,” Jeb Bush wants to spy on more Americans
  • Farron Cousins: Jeb Bush made millions by bankrupting Florida’s pension funds
  • White House on Sen. Cruz’s & Trump’s pro-war rally
  • Ann Telnaes: Ted Cruz courts evangelicals.
  • Young Turks: Ted Cruz wants to deport millions, just please don’t talk about it
  • Young Turks: Lil’ Bobby Jindal new 2016 strategy…copy Trump
  • Sam Seder: Lindsey Graham, in a desperate attempt for relevancy, threatens to “Beat Trump’s brains out.”

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about cancer.

Young Turks: Terrorist attempts to bomb abortion clinic.

Gunzzzz:

  • Young Turks: Emotional plea for gun control from father of VA shooting victim
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Father of VA shooting victim calls for gun laws
  • Thom: Time to start treating guns like abortions.
  • American gun violence versus the World
  • Young Turks: Science says…more guns, more gun deaths
  • David Pakman: So far….U.S. averaging one mass shooting per day in 2015.
  • Farron Cousins: Gun violence in America is out of control. Is the 2nd Amendment outdated?
  • Young Turks: Mark Hamill’s gun tweet enrages conservatives

Mental Floss: 31 amazing facts about household items.

Bill Maher with some New Rules.

White House: West Wing Week.

New Orleans, Ten Years after Katrina:

  • 10 years later: Has New Orleans been rebult…or just gentrified?
  • Hurricane Katrina relived through media clips
  • Maddow: The 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina (with a cameo by Heck-of-a-job-Brownie):

  • George W. Bush back in New Orleans after 10 years.

Sam Seder: FAUX News, “It’s hard out there for white people”.

Congressional hits and misses: Best of Ted Cruz.

Eric Schwartz: Fuck You:

Nuclear Football:

  • A real nuclear physicist explains the Iran deal.
  • Is Sen. Wyden (D-OR) on the path to war?

Slate: What is sex like in space?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/25/15, 6:28 am

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of political pontification over a pint. An evening of electoral erudition over an elixer! An evening of conservative contraindication over a cocktail!! It’s this week’s edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. The Spokane and Woodinville chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 183 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 8/22/15, 12:46 am

Mark Fiore: The toxic mining law.

Mental Floss: Why do people and animals tilt heads when confused?

Stop Being a Baby When It Comes To Access To Reproductive Health Care :

Julian Bond:

  • Sam Seder: Remembering Julian Bond
  • Remembering Julian Bond.

Red State Update: Black Lives Matter and Hillary and Bernie and Mike Huckabee.

Jimmy Carter talks about his cancer.

Congressional Hits and Misses: Steny Hoyer edition.

Young Turks: Will the world end in September?

The Intimate Explainer: Sweet Nothings about the Iran deal.

AT&T Helps NSA Spy on Americans:

  • Thom: Companies the NSA found “extremely willing” to spy on Americans
  • Mike Papantonio and Farron CousinsWorld’s largest telecom company is NSA’s biggest snitch

Thom: The Good, the Bad – and the Very, Very Matronymicly Ugly!

The Iraq war hawks are back…for Iran.

Maddow: July 2015 was the hottest month ever recorded on planet earth.

Mental Floss: 21 failed inventions.

Mike Papantonio and Farron Cousins: The U.S. burns while Congress fiddles.

The 2016 G.O.P. Circus Show:

  • PsychoSuperMom: I Didn’t Come From Your Rib, You Came From My Vagina:

  • Thom and Pap: The conservative media has hijacked the GOP
  • Young Turks: Ending birthright citizenship? Goodbye Rubio, Jindal,…
  • Farron Cousins and Sam Seder: Time for Republicans to realize just how disgusting they have become.
  • Sam Seder: John Kasich whines about teacher’s whining
  • Liberal Viewer: FAUX News’ anti-Trump spin
  • Lawrence: Trump the insult candidate trashes himself
  • Young Turks: FAUX News has lost control of The Donald
  • José Díaz-Balart: Trump, “Many gang members are illegal immigrants”
  • Sam Seder: Donald Trump goes to war with FAUX News’ Frank Luntz
  • David Pakman: Donald Trump thinks the Constitution is unconstitutional
  • Donald Trump: The Horror Film (trailer)
  • The Donald’s “immigration plan”
  • Chris Hayes with Ezra Klein & Michael Steele: How does Trumpism work?
  • Thom: Who can stop The Donald?
  • Sam Seder: Watch The Donald destroy Jeb!™
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Two shrinks weigh in on Trump’s extreme narcissism
  • David Pakman: Donald Trump implodes on simple question
  • Young Turks: Trump blasts O’Malley as “disgusting little weak pathetic baby”
  • Larry Wilmore: Born in the USA…now GTFO!
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: In ’99, Trump quit the G.O.P. because Republicans are too crazy.
  • Young Turks: Huckabee thinks MLK would’ve been against Black Lives Matter movement
  • Sam Seder: Mike Huckabee supports denying abortion to 10-year-old girl raped by her stepfather
  • Bush edition: Fool me once.
  • Maddow: Jeb’s latest blunders, lies and confusion
  • José Díaz-Balart: Trump and Bush defend their use of “anchor baby”.
  • Matt Binder: Bobby Jindal seeks to expand Big Government & use authority from laws that do mot exist
  • David Pakman: Rick Santorum (ewwwwwww!) says ‘cancerous’ abortion is like the Holocaust
  • Farron Cousins: Chris Christie is a jerk, and the public despises him
  • David Pakman: Ted Cruz to hate group—only way to save US is by turning it into theocracy
  • Young Turks: Lying liar Ted Cruz is not against birthright citizenship.
  • Roy Zimmermann: The Big Republican Tent:

  • James Rustad: “We Will Drone Illegal Immigrants”
  • Deez Nuts for President
  • Larry Wilmore on Deez Nuts
  • Sam Seder: Mike Huckabee “speaks for” Martin Luther King Jr.

Fans want Jon Stewart to moderate a presidential debate.

Richard Fowler: Nutbag Rep. Steve King things you can marry your lawn mower.

Thom: Here are the different rules for Democrats and Republicans.

White House: West Wing Week

Pap and Farron Cousins: Florida’s criminal Governor still stealing trom tax payers.

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about space.

Citizen Zimmerman:

  • George Zimmerman is selling Confederate Flag art at Muslim-free gun store.
  • Young Turks: George Zimmerman paints a confederate flag to prove he “loves” America.
  • David Pakman: George Zimmerman selling Confederate flag painting at ‘Muslim-free’ gun store

Who funds the anti-immigrant hatred?

College Humor: 31 words that sound like slurs…but aren’t.

A baby seal responds to Shell Oil Drilling in the Arctic.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/18/15, 5:50 am

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of liberal politics over your beverage of choice at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. And on Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 190 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

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Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 6/16/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 6/13/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 6/13/25
  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 6/11/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 6/10/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 6/9/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 6/6/25
  • Monday Open Thread Friday, 6/6/25
  • Wednesday! Wednesday, 6/4/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 6/3/25

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