Okay…it is not clear whether we can watch the debate here at Drinking Liberally, but I’ll be streaming and listening on a laptop.

Feel free to go at it in the comment thread.

5:58: Okay…audio and video are up and running here at the Roanoke.

When did we start with the national anthem before debates?

— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) November 11, 2015

6:00: National anthem before a debate suggest this is some kind of fucking sporting event! Let there be BLOOOOOOOODDDDDDD!!!

6:03: Holy fuck…get on with it already.

6:04: Why is Paul in there? Most pollsters don’t even bother doing Clinton-Paul match-ups anymore.

Ha ha it’s a hoax debate everyone! Here’s $10!

— David Waldman (@KagroX) November 11, 2015

6:08: Carson blatantly lies about the effect of raising minimum wage.

Carson is about 50 times more animated in this debate than in the last one. And, no, he is still not that animated.

— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) November 11, 2015

6:10: Shorter Rubio: America is great because we have poor people for the rich to exploit.

Raising the minimum wage works. #GOPDebate pic.twitter.com/b1KkxLNUqk

— The Democrats (@TheDemocrats) November 11, 2015

Rubio – “We need more welders, not philosophers.” Umm… Didn’t your party ship all the welding jobs overseas? #GOPDebate

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) November 11, 2015

6:14: Kasich on balancing the budget. I recall that Clinton did that, and that Shrub shot that to hell. Lesson: If you are fiscally responsible don’t elect a Bush or a Republican.

Kasich has choppy hands.

— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) November 11, 2015

#GOPDebate: Reducing #deficit emerged as top Republican priority shortly after Obama took office pic.twitter.com/p659yrpsPB

— Alec Tyson (@alec_h_tyson) November 11, 2015

6:18: FAUX debate moderator doesn’t appear to understand “participation rate”.

6:20: Jeb Bush’s new platform: Repeal Everything Obama.

6:21: Fiorina uncomfortably wedges a anecdote in to a profound non-answer.

Well, that was awful.

Please join us tonight for an evening of fantasy, whimsy, and war-mongering as Fox Business Network hosts the fourth Republican Primary Debate. Shock and awwwwww (and maybe some drinking games) will prevail at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our normal starting time is 8:00 pm, but this week we will start with the debate at 6:00 pm (PST).

Note: We should have sound and video for the debate. But the bar and restaurant has other customers, so the sound may not be as loud as you want, especially with the background of a busy tavern and peripheral conversations. If you are intent on hearing every word, I recommend you bring stuff to stream the audio.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Redmond, and Bellingham chapters also meet. The Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday. And next Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

Last week, Obama made a laughingstock of the Republican Candidates. He pointed out their words about how they would be so “tough” dealing with Putin, and then chided them for their insufferable whining over uncivil debate moderators.

Now they are whining about children expressing anger over Trump’s ugly racism in this ad:

The Donald doesn’t like it one bit.:

“I think it’s terrible, I think it’s just terrible,” the Republican presidential candidate said on Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria Bartiromo.”

Young kids speaking that way “is a disgrace,” he added….

…a disgrace to The Donald because, typically, when little brown kids talk to him that way, he fires their parents.

Marco Rubio is also outraged,

“People are looking at it and say, these people are grotesque. I mean these are little children. What kind of parent allows their children to go on a video like that and use that kind of profanity and what kind of parents allow a kid to do that?”

Rubio, born to two non-U.S. Citizen immigrant parents, might qualify as a non-citizen “Anchor Baby” in Donald Trump’s world.

So…apparently, children using four letter words is more threatening than an opponent who would strip him of his citizenship.

Congressional Hits and Misses: The essential John Boehner.

Stephen: Farewell whoever you were.

VSauce: Juvenoia.

Thom: Here’s what Democratic Socialism is:

Ending gun violence.

How to FOIA the NSA for data about you.

White House: West Wing Week.

Ryan Eyes:

• Members weigh in on Ryan’s first week.
• Pap: Teabaggers go after Paul Ryan.
• WaPo: Who is Paul Ryan
• Maddow: Why Ryan won’t pass 9/11 first responders’ bill.
• Young Turks: Paul Ryan’s sellout to the banks.
• Farron Cousins: Paul Ryan’s first act is to screw over the poor.

Maddow: The Teabagger scandal that won’t die.

David Pakman: Teabaggers are at a record low.

Trevor Noah: My first American Health Care experience.

Mental Floss: Why does daylight saving time vary by country.

Thom: Un-Koch my campus.

Redskins vs. Reformed Whores: Let’s get it on!

Was MSNBC too easy on the Koch brothers?

Ann Telnes: More proof that SCOTUS is behind the times.

Chris Cillizza: Why Joe not running matters.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.

The 2016 Festival of Clowns:

• Obama smacks G.O.P. whimps for whining about CNBC moderators
• Young Turks: Obama mocks the wingnut whiners.
• Sam Seder: Obama mocks whiney GOP candidates.
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Republican debate demands
• Mark Fiore: The Real Republican Debate.
• Trevor Noah: Republicans call for babyproofed debates
• Sam Seder: Even FAUX News is laughing at the G.O.P. candidates.
• Seth Meyers with Donny Deutsch: Trump vs. Hillary is the reality show we want to see.
• Latino groups say Donald Trump’s racism has no place in the White House.
• Maddow: Anti-Trump protests reach Saturday Night Live
• Mexican Donald Trump hosts Mexican Saturday Night Live
• Songify: The Donald sings and dances:

• Donald responds with the Trump rap ad
• Sam Seder: Trump dismisses Jeb! and talks of riding off into the sunset
• Stephen: Trump and Jeb! books out.
• Young Turks: New low for Bush as Jindal passes him in Iowa.
• PsychoSuperMom: Jeb Can Fix It!
• Ann Telnaes: Jeb Bush and the divine right of political families.
• Young Turks: Jeb!’s friends are leaving him.
• Young Turks: Christie and Huckabee get demoted to the kids table.
• Matthew Filipowicz: Ted Cruz says climate change is not science. It’s religion.
• Young Turks: Ted Cruz just cannot still whining about the CNBC debate.
• “Holy Lunatic Asylum, Batman”: Ben Carson’s unbelievably NUTZ-O theory about the pyramids.
• Sam Seder: Genius Ben Carson solves the pyramid mystery.
• Ben Carson thinks the pyramids were built to store grain
• Hey GOP candidates, no more hating.
• Richard Fowler: Carson compares rape victims who want abortions to slave owners.
• David Pakman: Carson and pyramid schemes
• Farron Cousins: Dr. Malpractice says pyramids were for grain storage
• Young Turks: Ben Carson’s pyramid scheme.
• Sam Seder: Ben Carson tells some classic archaeologist jokes
• Matthew Filipowicz: Rand Paul compares tuition free college to heroin.
• Trevor Noah: Iowa Republicans are afraid of The Daily Show

Anonymous KKK Hack.

Sam Seder: FAUX News infotainters have difficulty understanding jobs numbers.

Thom: Will ObamaCare survive in Kentucky?

Obama on Keystone XL.

Nancy Pelosi: “The Republican Committee to Attack Women’s Health”.

Seven mistakes in Bill-O-The-Clown’s book about Ronald Reagan.

Simone Sebastian: If you oppose Black Lives Matter, you would’ve abhorred Martin Luther King.

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about famous composers.

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard: Wealth of Congress:

Red State Update: RIP Fred Thompson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Hey…today is ELECTION DAY! If you haven’t done so already, fill out that ballot, drop it off at a nearby drop box, and then high-tail it to the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally for the 8:00pm ballot-drop watching party. And it isn’t just Washington with some important elections. Michigan, Kentucky, New Jersey and Virginia have some big races, and there are a bunch of congressional special elections happening.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00 pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. The Long Beach, Tri-Cities and West Seattle chapters also meet tonight. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 183 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

I don’t do much pontification or statistical analysis of the Presidential primary polls. The thing is, primary processes are irregular and messy. Some states hold primary elections. Some states, caucuses. And some states hold both–you know, like Washington state in 2008.

Polls can sometimes reflect the subsequent outcome of state primaries, but in states with open primaries, cross-over votes can determine an outcome that polls may not capture. And the contests are not independent. There can be a social effect whereby the outcome of one primary or caucus might drastically alter a contest held days or weeks later.

On top of all that, the elections and caucuses don’t directly select the ultimate nominee. The McGovern-Fraser reforms that followed the 1968 conventions have made the process quite transparent, but it’s still messy. Parties and individual states have different ways of going from a primary or caucus result to a binding of delegates to the candidates.

Democrats use a largely proportional system, with some differences among states. Republicans use a proportional system for state contests before March 14th. Contests after March 14th can be winner-take-all or proportional or a mixture of both—the decision is made by the states. And then there is the issue of “unpledged delegates” (or superdelegates) that are employed by both parties. These are the wild cards that can affect (but, in practice, haven’t really affected) the selection of candidates at the national nominating convention. Unpledged delegates make up about 5% of the Republican delegates and 20% of Democratic delegates.

Like I say…it’s a messy process. Any attempts of using statistical analyses to ascertain the nominee is either absurdly simplified or absurdly herculean.

Still, this season brings us an incredibly interesting primary. So I may, on occasion, offer some thoughts–typically based on collections of polls, but without the formal analyses.

The Democratic primary is not the interesting one. I’ve seen pretty much every Democratic state primary poll and everything points to an easy win by Sec. Hillary Clinton. Sen. Bernie Sanders is providing a great service to his party by running against Hillary, but he ain’t gonna be the person nominated. Well…not unless Hillary’s emails reveal something startling (“Back off, Rahm, or I’ll do the same thing to you that I did to Foster….”). And even then, only if there’s an actual indictment.

Never mind what you see in (way overly-polled) New Hampshire. In the 100 or so national primary polls taken to date, Clinton has only twice dipped below a double digit lead. Currently she is up from 15% to 30% with a strengthening trend for six weeks. Sanders has stayed about the same over the same period.

The Republican primary is the really “interesting” one. Currently, “outsider” candidates have been leading with a pack of insiders, who are languishing in the mid-single digits. Until mid-July, there wasn’t a lot of differentiation, but Gov. Jeb! Bush was the national front-runner, with Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Scott Walker nipping at his heels. Real estate mogul turned reality TV star, Donald Trump, “broke out” of the pack in mid-July and has pretty much remained on top. Notable surgeon, Dr. Ben Carson, “broke out” a month later and has held a solid second place lead since, typically within single digits of Trump. Former CEO Carly Fiorina spent the last week of September in third with over 10% support, but she has subsequently fallen to the middle of the single-digit pack.

These days, when I start talking among friends about the general election, people want to know my predictions for the GOP nomination. So, allow me to speculate a bit here. First, I maintain that Carson has virtually no chance of becoming the Republican nominee. His inexperience as a politician and campaigner and his relative ignorance of policy and politics will do him in. And I believe sooner rather than later.

Trump is a different story. He has much more political experience than Carson, though still an amateur. But he has the resources to make up for his inexperience. And he is adept at using his resources to undertake big “projects.” Furthermore his real-world experience is highly conducive to undertaking a large, complicated project like a campaign.

What Trump lacks is verbal discipline and a “presidential temperament.” This caps his support ceiling. He may also lack the discipline necessary to learn the policy details that will eventually become important in the nomination process.

Jeb! has hit rock bottom following a mediocre debate performance that launched a “disaster” feeding frenzy among the media. It’s overblown and likely wrong. Give it a month or two, and Jeb may well bounce back. He, among the GOP candidates, has the strongest “foundation”, in a broad sense, for a presidential bid. On the other hand, maybe Barbara is right: We’ve had enough Bushes

Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz supposedly had a great 3rd debate. Maybe…if by “great” you mean they each made a couple of brief non-policy statements that received applause. Really, each candidate’s “great” performance is little more than a media snowballing meme. I mean, if they didn’t have Jeb to kick around, the meme might be about how Cruz was overly whiny or how Rubio lacked spontaneity and was merely peppering us with overly rehearsed lines. Media reaction is a fickle thing.

There haven’t been many polls released since the 3rd G.O.P. debate, but I don’t think that matters much. From the collection of recent polls (before and after the debate), we can divine something of a trend. Bush is down to 4 or 5 percent buried in a cluster with Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Rand Paul, Fiorina, and Gov. John Kasich. Cruz seems to have ticked up slightly, but is still below 10% (except, of course, in Texas where he is at 14%). Rubio, on the other hand, has seen a big jump into the land of double-digits. This is true in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and in a national poll taken after the debate.

For awhile, I’ve given Bush the greatest probability of taking the nomination. Now, I sort of feel like there is a two way tie between Bush and Rubio, perhaps a 30% probability each. Then I would give Trump a 20% probability, Cruz a 15% probability and anyone else a 5% probability. In other words, I offer a subjective probability of 75% that a person with Hispanic children will be the G.O.P. nominee. And a 99.9% probability that a woman will be the Democratic nominee. In terms of diversity, it’s likely to be a historic presidency.

We’ve come a long way from the last time a Clinton ran in the general election for President, when a pair of Southern white male Baptists ran against a Midwestern white male Methodist with a white male West-coast Presbyterian running mate. Progress, baby!

Colbert: Meat ‘n smug vegetarians.

Thom: Are we seeing the rebirth of the KKK?

Mental Floss: Why is there a joker in a deck of cards.

The ten richest members of Congress.

The 2016 GOP Clown Show:

• The third-tier GOP debate
• Red State Update: Debate debriefing
• Thom: The myths and lies in the GOP Debate
• Stephen: The Republican Debate:

• Young Turks: After rough CNBC debate, Republicans take their ball and go home.
• Liberal Viewer: Debate Clips
• Maddow: Republicans plot mutiny over debate.
• Young Turks: GOP Candidate’s tax plans would cost trillions
• David Pakman: Republican debate dominated by ridiculous policy ideas
• The GOP debate in 3 minutes.
• Young Turks: Worst line of the debate
• Farron Cousins: Ted Cruz brags about destroying GOP
• Sam Seder: Cruz channels McCarthy and Gingrich during the debate
• Farron Cousins: Ted Cruz whine to conservative moderators about liberal media bias.
• Young Turks: Rand Paul’s fake budget filibuster.
• Is Carson out-Trumping Trump?
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Carson flip-flopped on guns and abortion.
• Ann Telnaes: Ben Carson warms up for the debate.
• Ben Carson’s Third campaign ad.
• Maddow: Why is Carson outdoing Trump in Iowa polls?
• PsychoSuperMom: Ben Carson, The Soporific Psycho
• Matthew Filipowicz: Yes, Ben Carson, you are a homophobe!

• Farron Cousins: Ben Carson’s history of homophobia.
• Young Turks: Trump and Carson demand shorter debates, still whine about everything.
• Stephen: Never bring a Trump to a Carson fight.
• Mexicans on The Donald.
• David Pakman: Donald’s thinking on why women want to wear Burkas
• Trump to host SNL: Tell ’em NO.
• Stephen tells the story of Trumps tough journey from rich to richer.
• Young Turks: Fact-checking Trump, Carson, Jindal
• Marco Rubio: Mansplainer.
• Sam Seder: Marco Rubio, essentially, admits there’s no point in him being a Senator.
• Young Turks: Fact-checking Carly.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Jeb! nails it with, “Blah, Blah, Blah”
• Jeb fundraiser is a Who’s Who of the Bush Administration
• Ann Telnaes: Donors just aren’t that into Jeb anymore.
• The French respond to Bush’s “3-day work week” slur
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Jeb Bush’s campaign:

White House: West Wing Week.

The GOP is wrong for us.

John Oliver: I’m not a journalist.

Chris Hayes: Romney defends ObamaCare.

The poorest members of Congress.

Hillary and Friends:

• Bad lip reading the first Democratic debate.
• Stephen does Hillary.
• Stephen interviews Hillary.
• David Pakman: After Hillary destroyed the Benghaaaazzzziiiiiiiii!!!!1!11! panel, interviews will be private.
• Farron Cousins: By pushing Benghazi lies, conservative media accidentally boosts Hillary
• Stephen: Hillary’s very good week.

Farron Cousins: Koch brothers spend millions to eliminate solar power.

Benghazi: a reaction:

Sen. Lehey joins the 15,000 vote club.

Thom: ObamaCare back in court again?!?.

Mental Floss: 22 Horror Movie Facts.

Thom: Public goods & health care.

Maddow: Movie resurrects George W. Bush National Guard service scandal.

All Hallows’ Eve Politics:

• Bernie Sanders Halloween costume ideas.
• A Halloween warning.
• Professor Mike Yard explains blackface

Stephen: The Hungry for Power Games.

Seth Meyers: Jokes of the week.

Thom: NOAA defies the GOP McCarthy witchhunt.

Farron Cousins: Did Sarah Palin destroy the Republican Party?

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about pirates .

Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.

Ryan Eyes:

• Farron Cousins: With new Speaker, what does the next 12 months look like?
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Paul Ryan.
• David Pakman: Extremist Paul Ryan is Speaker of the House.
• Mark Fiore: Paul Ryan Shrugs.
• Young Turks: The new Speaker of the House.

Matthew Filipowicz: Pro-police group thrilled that FAUX News compared #BlackLivesMatter to the Nazis.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very, Very Luctiferously Ugly!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Well…I got a late start at it, but here is your open thread for the GOP debate…

I’ll add some snark and tweetery as the mood strikes.

So…one of the reasons I am so late is that I didn’t realize there was no livestream from CNBC. I ended up on some live-feed that includes a panel of wingnut pundits. Google infowars.com and livestream or something.

One pundit dude refers to “Paul Rino” and later says he doesn’t think Rubio is unqualified.

That Rubio-Jeb(!) exchange is like when your kid whips your ass in one-on-one for the 1st time.

— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) October 29, 2015

5:43: Issues? Issues anyone?

5:47: I agree with Cruz…let’s put some substance into this debate!

5:48: Of course, Cruz dodged a debt ceiling question in the process.

I don't know if anybody else has noticed, but Carly Fiorina consistently comes of as a tad unlikeable. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

5:49: Awwwwww…that’s adorable. They let Rand talk.

5:50: Christie gets a turn. Christie claims the govt. lies to you about Social Security, and then goes on to make the amateurish mistake of calling it “an entitlement”. It isn’t. You paid in.

I don't know if anybody else has noticed, but Carly Fiorina consistently comes of as a tad unlikeable. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

Mike Huckabee to Ted Cruz: Keep your Big Government hands off my Social Security.

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 29, 2015

Remember how the RNC was going to keep GOP debates all civil and orderly this time?

— Kasie Hunt (@kasie) October 29, 2015

By the way, how come Rubio gets counted down for his youth and inexperience while Cruz, the same age and experience, gets a pass?

— David Horsey (@davidhorsey) October 29, 2015

Good question!

Are we at the "I was a poor kid and now I'm rich" part of the debate? #WheresTheFastForwardButton? #GOPDebate #CNBCGOPDebate

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) October 29, 2015

Cruz, "My dad was a single mom…."

— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) October 29, 2015

So far, the moderators are doing the most damaging thing possible to @realDonaldTrump: ignoring him

— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) October 29, 2015

6:18: Carson is ALL for equal rights for same sex couples…but NO MARRIAGE!

Actually, Ben Carson, believing that LGBT People should have fewer rights than straight people DOES in fact make you a homophobe #GOPDebate

— Will McLeod (@WillMcLeod99) October 29, 2015

Guys, I think Jeb Bush has to make out with Obama: https://t.co/gfDGjXHcJP pic.twitter.com/2c3xUD2QkJ

— igorvolsky (@igorvolsky) October 29, 2015

6:27: The Donald goes after SuperPacs…is he running for Bernie’s VP?

All night candidates have smelled blood, unfortunately for the moderators it's their own

— Joe St. George (@JoeStGeorge) October 29, 2015

6:30: Cruz, “Loose money”. For some reason David Vitter jumps to mind….

I’m still blown away that CNBC couldn’t cite the source on the Trump question. IT’S ON HIS WEBSITE. https://t.co/1cgzqASUYR

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 29, 2015

6:34: Mr. Huckabee, I’ve known gas bags and you are one gas bag.

The CNBC moderators seem like substitute teachers: not particularly competent and bullied by smart-alleck students

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) October 29, 2015

Incompetent questioning yes, but this was the most important debate to date: it finished off the Bush campaign.

— David Frum (@davidfrum) October 29, 2015

Kasich: "Income inequality is driven by a lack of skills." Not true. Income inequality is driven by rules that are rigged in favor of the 1%

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

My guess: After this debate gets factored in only R’s over 5% in national poll average will be Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz.

— Samuel Minter (@abulsme) October 29, 2015

Trump clearly doesn't understand what somebody wrote in his immigration plan about H1-B visas. #CNBCGOPDebate

— Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) October 29, 2015

Trump Once Said Of Guns: “Nothing I Like Better Than Nobody Has Them” https://t.co/sEx6df62bl

— Andrew Kaczynski (@BuzzFeedAndrew) October 29, 2015

So far, I think every candidate has had a moment worth touting or YouTubing… except Bush. #NBC2016

— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) October 29, 2015

6:52: Christie, “When I’m president, police will know it!” Yep. Overtime traffic jam duty pay.

Fiorina makes call for return to Lochner era, saying that there's no constitutional authority for the government to set min wage. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

Clearly, somebody is doing well in his fantasy football league (amirite, Gov Christie?) #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

Christie just ate Bush's lunch! And probably others. Now this is the inning we have to get some runs!!

— Bill Maher (@billmaher) October 29, 2015

Were this an actual horse race, I'm pretty sure the entire field would be shot. #GOPDebate https://t.co/lD5KIbSCwq

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

Winners: Rubio Cruz Christie Losers: Paul Trump CNBC

— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) October 29, 2015

Huckabee thinks it's easy to eradicate diseases because he knows they don't evolve. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

Fiorina: "The federal government should not be in a lot of things. The only things they should be in are marriages & women's private areas."

— Craig Rozniecki (@CraigRozniecki) October 29, 2015

7:10: Chris Christie’s run-on, repeated rant is the second “runaway blimp” story of the day!

Chris Christie using that "keep your hands on your wallet line again." (Though to be fair, whenever I'm in NJ I keep my hands on my wallet.)

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

7:15: Christie repeatedly said he was “deadly serious” about changing things. Did he mean “dead serious”? In any case, brings to mind that bridge traffic jam….

Rand Paul wants a government so small he can't see it. Like a GOP penis. #GOPDebate

— Wonkette (@Wonkette) October 29, 2015

Trump promises America a lifetime of shorter debates. pic.twitter.com/I7OGMHAICl

— Jim Roberts (@nycjim) October 29, 2015

#CNBCGOPDebate Shut up #MikeHuckabee You're there to sell your book.

— esd2000 (@esd2000) October 29, 2015

"I will change the culture in Washington," says the son and brother of two of the last four presidents. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015

That concludes tonight's debate. We return to ongoing blimp coverage underway in Pennsylvania pic.twitter.com/L1eDPf1nph

— Tim Mak (@timkmak) October 29, 2015

@srjones66 I thought tonight's GOP debate was won by @BernieSanders and @HlLLARY split evenly

— ChuckTv (@Chucktv2) October 29, 2015

Well…that was “a thing.” It was my first GOP debate this cycle (and I was mostly listening to the audio), and it was pretty much the vacuous puffery that I expected. The only surprise to me was Trump’s strong statements against PACs. Other than that, Trump was just a meaningless braggart. Rand Paul morphed into Ron Paul, and came off more fringy than ever. Christie spewed pre-prepared platitudes. Rubio sounded angry and whiny. The Huckster is still a nut. Carson said things, but I don’t really remember them. And there were some other people talking, too. The debate moderators were TERRIBLE (and I am sure that is a bipartisan sentiment).

Please join us this evening for a pre-Republican-debate-discussion-group edition of Drinking Liberally. The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00 pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien and Bellingham chapters meet. The Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

Trevor Noah calls Wolf Blitzer a mean girl bully.

Larry Wilmore: Will the NRA suggest arming every toddler?

How gun advocates sound to normal people:

Young Turks: Lincoln Chafee drops out.

The 2016 Festival of Clowns:

• Spooky Republican candidates theme song
• Young Turks: Most Americans hate Republican foreign policy.
• Chris Hayes: Ben Carson is totally confused about Iraq, Afghanistan, 9/11, Osama bin Laden, and Saddaam Hussein
• David Pakman: Ben Carson claims God is behind his campaign.
• Sam Seder: Jeb Bush aims for studly…lands on creepy.
• Farron Cousins: Jeb Bush is in denial over his brother’s many failures
• Sam Seder’s Does Jeb! even know who was President on 11-Sept-2001?
• Trevor Noah: Jeb Bush and the age of Superheros
• George W. Bush has had enough of Ted Cruz.
• David Pakman: George doesn’t like Ted
• Farron Cousins: Sen. Ted Cruz puts his racism on full display.
• Chris Hayes: Trump attacks Bush for 9/11
• Maddow: Trump’s dominance makes him a GOP target.
• Farron Cousins: The Donald has a man-child hissy-fit because he has no secret service protection.
• Chris Hayes: Trump in new BACK to the FUTURE
• Trevor Noah admits Trump is right about something.
• Kimmel mocks Trump for cancelling
• Young Turks: FAUX News says Trump is a “Truther”.
• Ann Telnaes: The Elephants in the room are crying over Trump.
• Young Turks: Trump cannot believe that Carson is beating him in Iowa.
• Jonathan Mann: Donald Trump Sex Doll

White House: West Wing Week.

Red State Update: Political news of the week

BENGHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaZZZZZIIII!!!!!1!!11!!!

• Thom: The Benghazi hoax.
• Maddow: Benghazi committee is a “partisan carnival”.
• Young Turks: Republicans attack Hillary at Benghazi hearings.
• Priorities USA: 11 Hours.
• Jonathan Mann: Taco Emoji—Clinton Benghazi
• Thom: The prosecution of Hillary Clinton.
• David Pakman: Hillary Clinton destroys loser Republicans in bogus Benghazi hearing
• Maddow: What new did they learn at Benghazi witchhunt?
• Trevor Noah: The never ending investigation.
• Young Turks: Wrap-up of Clinton’s Benghazi testimony.
• Chris Hayes: Democrats demand RNC pay for Benghazi disinfomercial.
• David Pakman: Republicans caught red handed editing Hillary’s emails to smear her
• What you missed: Hillary at the Benghazi hearing.
• Young Turks: Trey Gowdy’s epic Benghazi fail.
• Priorities USA: Games

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Lutulently Ugly!

Farron Cousins: Republicans are paid to be stupid.

Texas Blues:

• Young Turks: Texas won’t give citizen children of immigrants birth certificates.
• Matthew Filipowicz: Texas violating 14th Amendment by denying birth certificates to immigrant children:

• Farron Cousins: Texas ends funding for Planned Parenthood

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about the Greek and Roman myths.

Farron Cousins: Nutjobber House Republicans are talking about impeaching Clinton when they lose

Trevor Noah: Canada’s hot new Prime Minister.

Ryan Eyes:

• Ann Telnaes: Does the GOP have Paul Ryan’s Back?
• Sam Seder: Paul Ryan’s heartfelt list of demands.
• Young Turks: House laughs at Ryan’s demands…Ryan runs anyway.
• Your chance to totally agree with Paul Ryan.
• Reid supports Ryan
• Trevor Noah: The Daily Show show uncovers more of Paul Ryan’s demands.
• Chris Hayes to Rep. Michael Burgess: “Why is this not a terrible idea?”

Ole Miss students want Mississippi state flag off campus.

Farron Cousins: Sen. David “DiaperBoy” Vitter got prostitute pregnant and told her to have an aborition.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Biden His Time:

• Biden closes the door
• Larry Wilmore to CNN: You don’t need to predict the news.
• Young Turks: Joe passes on a Presidental bid.

Jon and Tracey Stewart on life after the Daily Show.

Mental Floss: 41 fascinating sports facts.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Rubio
92.4% probability of winning	7.6% probability of winning
Mean of 304 electoral votes	Mean of 234 electoral votes

My previous analysis in this race showed Secretary Clinton just barely leading Sen. Rubio 65% to 35%. Rubio was second to Jeb Bush in performance against Clinton. In the intervening weeks, Rubio has started to crawl out of the mid-tier rankings in the G.O.P. primary. A week ago he placed third in SC, and today we see he is second in NH

Rubio’s primary “surge” hasn’t translated into general election gains. He seems to be losing ground to Clinton. Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 92,430 times and Rubio wins 7,570 times (including the 404 ties). Clinton received (on average) 304 to Rubio’s 234 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 92.4% probability of winning and Rubio would have a 7.6% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

An election is happening in Washington state, and by now you should have your ballot in hand. So pack up your political questions and opinions and let ’em loose over the beverage of your choice at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00 pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. The Spokane, Kent, and Woodinville chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 183 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

Clinton	Trump
96.6% probability of winning	3.4% probability of winning
Mean of 315 electoral votes	Mean of 223 electoral votes

There still too many states that have yet to be polled for this match-up for this analysis to have teeth. I count 27 missing states (plus D.C.) and that number includes the possible swing states of Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, New Mexico and more. We have no polls for Washington state yet, but I don’t think Washington is likely to swing in Trump’s direction.

So why do this analysis? Quite simply, because Clinton and Trump are in the undisputed position of leading in their respective primaries.

Even lacking many state polls, this analysis is instructive for the states we have, and for how Trump’s performance compares to the other candidates. A couple of days ago, a similar analysis of Clinton v. Bush showed Bush leading with a 65% chance of winning an election held now. Trump does significantly worse against Clinton than does Bush.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 96,573 times and Trump wins 3,427 times (including the 952 ties). Clinton received (on average) 315 to Trump’s 223 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 96.6% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.4% probability of winning. In other words, Clinton would almost certainly win an election held right now.

There are a few surprises at the state level. Both Wisconsin and Virginia heavily lean toward Clinton in the two polls in each state conducted within the past month. Now compare those two states to their geographical and political neighbors Minnesota and North Carolina. There we see things nearly tied. In the “classic” swing states, Trump leads in Florida in four of five polls, but Clinton leads in both Ohio polls and in two of three polls in Pennsylvania. Clinton leads in Kentucky, too, but the poll is from way back in mid-June.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Clinton	Bush
35.2% probability of winning	64.8% probability of winning
Mean of 263 electoral votes	Mean of 275 electoral votes

There have only been something over a dozen new state head-to-head polls since the previous analysis of a general election match-up between Secretary Clinton and Gov. Bush. Previously, the race was, essentially, tied with Clinton having a slight edge. This month, the race is, well…tied. But now Bush has a slight advantage.

The trend can be seen from this graph created from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 16 Oct 2014 to 16 Oct 2015, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

In the month and a half since the previous analysis, the race has remained a tie, with a bounce in Bush’s favor followed by a bounce in Clinton’s favor. There isn’t much we can make of these bounces statistically. All of the data in the recent polls were collected before the Democratic debate, so we cannot even pretend the uptick in favor of Clinton is related to the debate. What is clear, however, is that this past summer, Clinton lost a significant edge she held over Bush.

For the most recent period, the 100,000 simulated elections, puts Clinton ahead 35,187 times and Bush ahead 64,813 times (including the 2,215 ties). Clinton received (on average) 263 to Bush’s 275 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 35.2% probability of winning and Bush would have a 64.8% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Red State Update meets Ann Coulter, James Carville, Paul Begala, “Edward Snowden” at Politicon.

Gulahallat Eatnamiin: We Speak Earth.

A Congress in Chaos:

• WaPo: The top 5 House speaker choices.
• Josh Earnest: No White House endorsement in Speaker race.
• Mark Fiore: Conservatives gone wild!
• David Pakman: Chaos as Kevin McCarthy withdraws from speaker race
• Thom: The GOP speaker job sucks
• Young Turks: Republicans are desperate for Speaker of the House.

Adam Ruins Everything: The real reason jaywalking is illegal.

Stephen Colbert and Jack Black: My Kind Of America:

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about hiccups.

The 2016 Clown Show:

• Farron Cousins: Sit back and enjoy the GOP shit show
• Young Turks: Does Ben Carson really want to be President?
• What a Ben Carson ad should look like
• Young Turks: Did Ben Carson lie about “Popeyes organization” robbery.
• David Pakman: Ben Carson in 2nd place is scarier than Donald Trump in 1st
• Maddow: New Scandal for Carson–he’s only been a Republican for one year.
• Your drunk neighbor…Donald Trump.
• Trump’s debate tweets were a cry for help
• Young Turks: Trump calls Sanders a commie maniac.
• Trump: World Trade Center came down on George Bush’s watch.
• Maddow: Old campaign rules out the window for 2016.
• Farron Cousins: Jeb! Bush sends plant to Trump event–who looks stupider?
• Young Turks: Is Mike Huckabee a Twitter troll or a presidential candidate?
• Maddow: GOP candidates escalate war threats to Putin?

Young Turks: FAUX News “terrorism expert” arrested for pretending to be CIA.

Tina Fey for President.

Alabama Disenfranchisement:

• Farron Cousins: Alabama is still living in the 1960s–The return of Jim Crow
• Matthew Filipowicz: Alabama Republicans make it harder for Black people to vote.

Larry Wilmore’s big gay ice cream sitdown with Nancy Pelosi.

Young Turks: Republican politician wants guns taken away from Black people.

Dems Debating:

• Larry Wilmore: This week in Blacklash 2016
• Stephen: Waiting for Joe-dot.
• Farron Cousins: Childish Republicans could learn from Democratic debate.
• Trevor Noah is pumped for the debate
• PsychoSuperMom: When the Grown-ups Take the Stage:

• Red State Update feels The Bern & The Chafee at CNN Vegas Democratic debate
• Clinton answers the tough debate questions.
• Democrats discuss the greatest threats to the U.S.
• Young Turks: Debate assessment.
• Stephen: How about that Democratic debate!
• Hillary weighs in on the first debate
• Farron Cousins: FAUX News stupid debate response for their low-information viewers
• Little Democratic debate.
• Jonathan Mann: The Jim Webb Equal Time Supercut Blues
• Democrats debate gun control.
• Memorable quotes from the first Democratic debate
• Seth Meyers weighs in on the Democratic debate
• Liberal Viewer: Biggest blunder using the word “blunder”?
• Maddow’s take on the first Democratic debate.
• Trevor Noah: Democalypse 2016:

• Young Turks: The biggest FAYLE of the CNN debate.
• The Democratic Debate spin room (in 360)
• James Rustad: Bernie Sanders is sick and tired of hearing about damn emails.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very, Very Demersally Ugly!

Mental Floss: 22 Brian Facts.

David Pakman: Presidential predictions you can bet on.

Political Planned Parenthood:

• Young Turks: Why Planned Parenthood shouldn’t try to appease Republicans.
• David Pakman: Republican admits no wrongdoing by Planned Parenthood found

Young Turks: One toddler shooting each week in 2015.

Chris Hayes: Seth Meyers and political comedy.

White House: West Wing Week.

Benghaaaaazzzzzzzzzziiiiiiii!!!!11!1!!

• Rep. Cummings (D-MD) asks if Benghazi committee is a “taxpayer-funded effort to derail” Clinton.
• Thom: Is this the end of the new McCarthyism witch hunt?
• Farron Cousins: Louie Gohmert goes on Benghazi tirade during Planned Parenthood hearing

Seth Meyers: Jokes of the week

Congressional Hits and Misses: Best of Paul Ryan.

Back To The Future in actual 2015.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.