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Chaos in the G.O.P.

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Throughout the 2012 presidential campaign season, I thought the G.O.P. primary was about as crazy as it could be. I mean, what can be crazier than a field that included Michele “HPV vaccine-retarded” Bachmann, Herman “9-9-9” Cain, Rick “Oops” Perry, Newt “Poor kids as school janitors” Gingrich, Rick “Ewwww” Santorum , and crazy ol’ Ron “Social Security is unconstitutional” Paul?

Boy…did I underestimate Republicans, and their God-given talents to indulge in The Crazy.

Trump in charge
I won’t rehash The Crazy to date—there’s been just too much. This week, though, The Crazy seems to have reached some kind of boiling point after Donald Trump proposed banning Muslims from entering the U.S. Since then, he has doubled down, and even had a spokesperson callously state, on national TV, “So what? They’re Muslim.” This arguably isn’t his craziest, his most racist or even his most outrageously unconstitutional proposal. But it combines elements of crazy, racist, and unconstitutional, and distills them down to a pseudo-policy proposal that is easy to understand. It’s done two things.

First, it has “legitimized” open expression of bigotry and racism for a big chunk of the G.O.P. Trump has “let down” the dog whistle and made it okay for many Republicans to unleash their inner-racist at full volume. Even Sen. Lindsey Graham admits that about 40% of the G.O.P. are racist. Trump’s liberation of closet racists in the G.O.P. has actually helped his poll numbers in some early primary states, and he maintains a sizable lead in the first national poll taken since the policy was announced.

Second, it has created a sense of panic among the G.O.P. establishment over a “nightmare scenario” of Trump or Cruz. Trump would, apparently, end the G.O.P. as we know it. So in the past 24 hours, there have been reports that the G.O.P. leadership is making contingency plans for a brokered convention. This has further fueled speculation that there is a secret plan to nominate Mitt Romney. Ben Carson is so outraged (and has so misunderstood the brokered convention plans), that he is threatening to leave the G.O.P. Crazy.


[I mean, things have gotten so freaking crazy that Sen. Ted Cruz has taken one last swallow, gotten off his knees and boldly (well…in a private meeting) questions Trump’s judgment. Trump, in turn, dares and then double-dares Cruz to take his best shot and orders him back to his knees.]

The Crazy has been working well for Trump (and Cruz and Carson to a lesser extent) in the primary. As a general election strategy, peddling fear and bigotry seems like a sure-losing strategy. It will take boatloads of money to help American’s forget this crazy primary before November. And even that may not be enough.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleIt’s only Tuesday morning but, man, what a crazy week we’ve had. On Monday, The Donald positioned himself even closer to the Birchers and neo-Nazis. Even Dick Cheney had to dissociate himself from Trump’s outrageous policy proposal. I’m sure there will be more about this throughout the day. Please join us tonight for conversation over drinks at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. The Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 186 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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How to save the planet and money this holiday season.

Lee Camp: Labeling people.

Chris Hayes: The G.O.P.’s new War on Women™ to gut Roe v Wade.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very, Very Inconditely Ugly!

White House: West Wing Week.

Larry Wilmore: Don’t mess with Tex books.

The 2016 Cavalcade of Crazy Conservative Clowns:

Trevor Noah: The fight against ISIS.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about eyes.

David Pakman: Bush & Cheney freed ISIS leader because he was “harmless”.

The glory days of the TSA.

Mental Floss: 37 facts about fruit.

Jimmy Dore: CNN to check facts & why that makes Jake Tapper cringe.

This Week in Gun Violence:

Quantum physics made easy.

Red State Update: Unboxing a giant American flag.

Friday political hot takes.

Sam Seder: Star GOP tweenage boy done with conservativism.

Pelosi slams GOP budget proposal

The G.O.P. is full of climate change deniers.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very, Very Claudicantly Ugly!

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard: Omnibus:

Jimmy Dore: Iraq war 2.0 is BACK, baby!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Holiday gift ideas

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It’s that time of year.

If you are Donald Trump, all you want for Christmas is another high profile mass shooting. If you do the math, we can expect about 30 or 31 more mass shootings this year. Trump ought to get a couple of high profile ones out of that.

Merry Christmas, Donald!

For the rest of us, here’s an idea for a unique gift that almost everyone on your holiday gift list can use.

Give the ones you love a bullet-proof vest, or other types of body armor.

Sure…if we all did this, everyone would receive a bunch of these things. That’s okay…several vests can be useful. Stash one in the basement, one upstairs. Keep one at work. Stash one in the car…and one in the other car. Use one for stinky stuff, like hiking or running. And maybe keep a few spare around for guests with whom you are sharing an intimate hostile fire situation.

Brilliant, no?

Oh…and if Ben Carson is on you holiday list, pick him up some fresh hummus and a shiny new foreign policy adviser.

Another Lunatic Fringe Right Wing theory shot to hell

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So…this is what Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) was thinking about the other day:

When a reporter asked him at an Iowa campaign stop Sunday evening about suspect Robert Lewis Dear saying he was motivated by “no more baby parts,” Cruz countered that he’s also been reported to be a “transgendered [sic] leftist activist.”

Cruz explained, “We know that he was a man registered to vote as a woman.” This discrepancy on Dear’s voter registration was first reported by The Gateway Pundit, a self-described “right-of-center news website,” under the claim that he “identifies as [a] woman.” Conservatives have since run with the claim that Dear is transgender.

Yeah…that makes perfect sense. Because transgendered [sic] women always sport a full, scruffy beard and a mustache. You know, especially if they are “transgendered [sic] leftist activist[s].”

Reality turns out to be a bit more mundane:

Records show Dear traveled 65 miles to a Colorado Springs clerk and recorder’s office to obtain his driver’s license and his voter’s registration card, Parsell said.

Although Dear clearly identified himself as a man, the information was incorrectly logged into a computer, Parsell added.

“Our employee inadvertently clicked on ‘female’ and gave the confirmation to Mr. Dear to review,” he said. “He missed it and signed it.”

Thirteen days later, Dear received the erroneous driver’s license in the mail. Records show he traveled to a Department of Motor Vehicles office in Salida to report the error and request a corrected license, which he received, Parsell said.

To change his voter’s registration card, however, Dear would have had to mail a separate request to his local clerk and recorder’s office.

Crackpots of the week: Ted Cruz and the rest of the right wing “scruffy bearded transgendered woman” theorists.

Holy shit.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us tonight for drinks, conversation, and dinner at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. The Long Beach, Tri-Cities and West Seattle chapters also meet tonight. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Lee Camp: Hell frozen over? A CEO is jailed!

PBS & NPR: Are pesticides to blame for the massive bee die-off?

The 2016 Clown Auditions:

Minute Physics: Why isn’t it faster to fly West?

Pap: Corporate media wants you to be stupid. Let’s fight back.

Mitch McConnell drinks.

Refugophobia:

Thom with Steven Gaffney: Really! How do you know a politician is lying?

Jimmy Dore: God refuses to apologize for Paris.

California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (with Bill Maher): Why raise the minimum wage.

Redacted Tonight comedy special with Lee Camp.

Farron Cousins: Corporate media is hungering for a war.

Actual Terrorism That Happened in the U.S. This Week:

Congressional hits and misses: Thanksgiving leftovers edition.

John Oliver: Pennies.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & The Very, Very Gallionicly Ugly!

David Pakman: World hunger is a social construction.

Young Turks: Koch brothers building their own CIA to spy on progressives.

Surviving the survivalist game.

Quagmire Happening:

Jimmy Dore: Not drunk Bill O’Reilly calls about Muslims, responsibility & Muslims:

David Pakman: More Mexicans are leaving U.S. than coming in to the U.S.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: Origin of the “freakin’ Presidential turkey pardon”.

Thom: Why the Kochs really embrace criminal justice reform.

Stop war and start cuddling.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

HA spoils your Thanksgiving

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Obama pardons Honest and Abe.

Family Fellowship:

Classic: Sarah Palin’s Thanksgiving massacre:

Red State Update: Happy Trumpsgiving.

Trevor’s Thanksgiving Thankstacular Round-Up.

Thanksgiving Stuffing:

Mental Floss: What’s the difference between American and Canadian Thanksgiving?

The Morning After:

Mark Fiore: Learn to draw Republican Turkeys.

Stephen calls the Butterball Turkey Talk Line:

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleThe past week in politics has been absolutely crazy. Conservatives have developed bladder control issues as they cower at the thought of refugees coming into the U.S. Some Washington State lawmakers joined right in on the public display of cowardice. A leading Presidential candidate has been spewing incredibly racist lies, apparently to stoke his base. And that just touches on the week’s wackiness.

Please join us for some sane political conversation over the beverage of your choice at tonight’s Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. And the Woodinville, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

Vitter’s loss has huge implications

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Sen. Vitter reenactmentSen. David “Diaperman” Vitter (R-LA) has lost today’s runoff gubernatorial election in Louisiana. Vitter was defeated by Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards (LA-72), who has led in all recent polling for the race.

Vitter is infamous for a 2007 sex scandal when his phone number was among those found in the “D.C. Madam’s” phone book. Vitter responded to the scandal by offering an apology with his wife, Wendy, by his side, in what might be the most awkward political moment in history. And he refused to resign.

The moniker “Diaperman” is from reports that the Senator enjoyed diaper play with at least one prostitute.

Despite the scandal, Vitter was reelected to his U.S. Senate seat in 2010. This year he ran for Governor.

Vitter’s opponent, John Bel Edwards, made effective use of Vitter’s prostitution scandal.

This race has a number of implications. First, it means that the Democrats have won back a Governor’s seat. Bobby Jindal (R) has been the Governor since 2008, but must step down on account of term limits. Jindal ran for the G.O.P. presidential nomination for 2016, but dropped out this past week.

The second big implication has to do with Vitter’s Senate seat. Vitter can run for reelection to the U.S. Senate. But tonight Vitter announced he will not run for reelection. Furthermore, he said he will fulfill the last year of his Senate term.

The implications for this are huge. If Vitter resigned now, Jindal would be able to appoint a replacement who would, effectively, be an incumbent for 2016. But Vitter and Jindal hate each other, so Vitter will not give Jindal the opportunity to pick a successor. The result is that the U.S. Senate 3rd class seat for Louisiana will be an open race in 2016.

In my recent analysis of the Senate race, Democrats would most likely win 49 seats if the election was held now. That analysis assumed that (1) Vitter would lose the gubernatorial race, (2) Vitter would run as the incumbent for his seat, and (3) he would win with 100% certainty.

Now we know that will not happen. Instead there will be an open seat in Louisiana for 2016. It is too early to tell who the candidates will be. Both sides have potential strong candidates, but none have declared yet. We do know that the strongest candidates on each side, Bobby Jindal (R) and Mary Landrieu (D), have declined to run. Maybe they will reconsider.

I usually stay away from predictions, but I’ll offer a conditional prediction here. If the Democrats manage to reach at least 50 seats in 2016, it will be because Louisiana elected a Democrat to the Senate.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Starbucks responds to War-on-Christmas-Cup-gate.

The adventures of Young Hillary: One Woman Play.

Seals help scientists study climate change in Greenland.

Mental Floss: 52 facts about popular cities.

Paris Attacks Turn Wingnuts into Blubbering Cowards:

Adam Ruins Internships.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.

The Adventures of Young Hillary: Sleepover games.

Stephen does Bill Maher

The 2016 Cascade of Clowns:

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about the brain.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins: Is there any group the FAUX News doesn’t hate.

Unintended Consequences:

Stephen: You know nothing, Barack Obama.

The adventures of Young Hillary: Teaching the less fortunate.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Uterid

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Once upon a July day, Washington Republican leaders were haunted by thoughts of lady parts making baby parts with capitalist intent.

“We will investigate this outrage of endometrial entrepreneurship!”, they cried from the belfry.

The scrivener issued a clarifying scroll, “Yes, we believe in free markets, unless a uterus is involved. And then we demand Big Government Regulations”

So they hatched a bold plan to use Collective Action to get the job done:

Thirty-four Republican state representatives have asked state Attorney General Bob Ferguson to investigate whether Planned Parenthood affiliates in the state have illegally profited from the sale of fetal body parts.

The leaders waited as General Ferguson’s investigation underwent a months-long gestation. They would take the fruits borne of this disquisition, parade the findings before the masses, take them apart and serially disseminate them in pursuit of political contributions.

But the fruits were bitter and cruel to the union of uterine-overseers. There was no nourishment to be had for their War on Women™.

In a 48-page report, Attorney General Bob Ferguson rejected claims that Planned Parenthood has performed partial-birth abortions or that any of its clinics sell fetal tissue for profit “rather than simply recovering costs.”

“We found no indication that procedures performed by Planned Parenthood are anything other than performance of a legally authorized medical procedure,” Ferguson wrote in his report.

Ferguson’s findings are particularly important because Washington is one of only two states where a Planned Parenthood clinic allows women to donate fetal tissue to medical research. The report is a result of a four-month investigation, which was requested by state Republican leaders.

There was no endometrial entrepreneurship to be found in the lands. The report was barren and lifeless. Their plans to sew the seeds of discontent and grow their coffers would have to be aborted.

“Surely, the investigation has overlooked something.”

“We’ll keep looking and root out endometrial entrepreneurship yon.”

More than a dozen other states have also ended investigations of Planned Parenthood without finding any illegal or suspicious activity.

“Inconceivable”, some bellowed.

“Unbearable findings”, others howled.

“More investigation!,” one cried.

“Yes…More investigation!”, another.

And they satisfied themselves by repeating the chant in rhythm, until their distant leaders took their cause.

Congressional leaders have announced their own probe into the organization, which consists of about a dozen members from both parties.

They were, once again, filled with great hope of finding endometrial entrepreneurship, but only so that they could properly abhor it. And plant the seeds of fundraising.

And so it goes.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Things start up at about 8:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find—or start—a chapter near you.

Poll Analysis: Senate Outlook 2016

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Pres. Senate to Dems* Senate to GOP
Democratic: 43.3% probability 56.7% probability
Republican: 5.6% probability 94.5% probability
Mean of 49 seats Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It is way too early to make much of anything out of the 2016 Senate head-to-head polls. After all, we still have a primary season to go before we know who will be on the ballot. Still…there is just enough polling to give us an “early-first-quarter score” in the Senate races.

Currently, the Senate is controlled by Republicans, who hold 54 seats. Democrats hold 45 seats, plus Maine’s Sen. Angus King caucuses with the Democrats. In 2016, there will be 34 senatorial elections, all of the Senate’s “third class.” (There could be additional special elections as well, but I am not aware of any right now.) The current crop of Senators were elected in 2010, a Republican wave off-year election. Six years later, Republicans find themselves with 24 seats to defend and Democrats with 10 seats to defend, in a presidential election year.

I’ve spent a bit of time trying to divine the candidates most likely to appear on the ballot. In some cases, it was easy. Rand Paul will appear as the G.O.P. nominee in the Kentucky race. (You know…assuming his struggling presidential campaign continues its current trajectory.) Incumbents tend to get their party’s nomination, although there are retirements, like Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV). In some states, front-runners are obvious, like in Wisconsin where incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) will almost certainly go up against former Sen. Russ Feingold (D). When there are multiple candidates, I’ve tried to use primary polls, newspaper accounts, FEC numbers, and other sources to find the strongest or most likely candidate to advance to the general. You can see which candidates I’ve advanced to the general by looking at the polls page.

I’ve found state head-to-head polls in 15 races and no polls for 19 races. Polled states tend to be the ones with the most competitive Senate races OR states with some other importance. For example, there are many polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, which are the early caucus/primary states. I’ve found a total of 69 polls to date, so clearly there are multiple polls for many of the 15 races. States without polling are assumed to go to the party currently holding the seat.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 5,553 times, there were 37,718 ties, and Republicans have a Senate majority 56,729 times. In the event of a 50 seat tie, the President’s party controls (U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 3). If Sec. Hillary Clinton wins, Democrats have a 43.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 56.7% probability of controlling the Senate. If Clinton loses, Republicans would almost certainly (94.5% probability) maintain control of the Senate.

The good news for Democrats is that they are likely to gain 4 seats and have a good shot of taking control if they win the presidential election. The good news for Republicans is that they are still more likely than not to control the Senate. They can either lose 4 or fewer seats or lose 5 seats plus win the presidential election.

Let’s examine a few of the races.

[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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How the Keystone victory was won.

Mental Floss: What causes motion sickness?

Tweety: GOP Sen. Vitter chose prostitutes over patriots.

Romance with a young Hillary Rodham.

The 2016 Festival of Clowns:

Minute Physics: How to go to space.

Mark Fiore: Climate Interuptus.

Maddow: $15/Hr nationwide strike by fast food workers.

Stephen: Senators McCaskill & Klobuchar explain how women get things done.

Trevor: The Myanmar Daily Show.

David Pakman: New jobs accelerate as unemployment keeps dropping.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Thom: The good, the bad, and the very, very osmagoguely ugly!.

Our generation our choice.

Daily Show: Solution for outdated voting machines.

Maddow: Arizona Republican’s border wall flops! Oops.

Sam Seder: Bill-O-the-Clown thinks all colleges are fascist training camps.

Honest Political Ads: Meet Mrs. Fullbright.

Dick Cheney is the GOP guest of “honor” this week.

Stephen: The next debate will feature Hillary, Bernie and Mumford & Sons (sp?).

War on Christmas Caffeine:

Young Hillary gets ready to party.

How to speak like a presidential candidate.

Mental Floss: 24 facts about GOP Candidate Whine wine.

Farron Cousins: Make voting day a national holiday.

How its built: Political scandals.

Young Turks: WA school football coach won’t stop leading prayers.

Adam Ruins Everything: The Electoral College:

David Pakman: FAUX News hosts confused about good jobs numbers.

Stephen: Climate change and coital frequency.

Young Turks: Good news in the battle for voter rights.

The Adventures of Young Hillary: Hillary in the stacks .

Harry Reid’s special relationship with Roll Call’s Niels Lesniewski.

John Oliver: Prisoner re-entry.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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