Clinton	Trump
78.9% probability of winning	21.1% probability of winning
Mean of 288 electoral votes	Mean of 250 electoral votes

Last week’s analysis had Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 309 EVs to 229 EV, and gave Clinton a 96.2% chance of winning an election held then.

About 25 new polls have been released since then, and Trump has made further gains. Now, a Monte Carlo analysis of head-to-head polls gives Clinton 78,889 wins and Trump 21,111 wins (including the 2,468 ties) out of 100,000 simulated elections. Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 78.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a 21.1% probability of winning.

Here are a few notes for individual states.

There isn’t a lot of good news for Clinton, but in Arizona, an old Trump+5% poll aged out, leaving a series of much closer polls. Consequently, Trump’s probability of winning the state has dropped from 92.5% to only 80.5%.

Something similar has happened in Florida. A clear outlier poll with Clinton up +14% has aged out, and we have two new polls. The tally has Clinton leading 3 and Trump leading 3 with one tie. The net result is that we went from Clinton with a 82% probability of taking the state last week to a 59% chance of Trump taking the state this week. Florida is a toss-up.

In Maine a new SurveyUSA poll gives us verification that Maine’s 2nd CD is strongly for Trump, while the 1st CD is strongly for Clinton. The CDs would split in an election held now. Overall, however, Clinton would take the state.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota has Clinton at +6% over Trump. Still, the small size of the poll means that Clinton’s chances are pegged at 88%. The longer polling history suggests Clinton would easily take the state.

Nevada has flipped. We have five current polls, and Trump has small leads in the last four polls. Last week we gave Clinton a 63% chance of winning Nevada. Now Trump has a 68% chance. Clearly, Nevada is a swing state.

North Carolina has flipped as well. Clinton had a tenuous lead last week, with a 58% chance of taking the state. With three new polls that all go to Trump, the GOP nominee now has a 69% chance of winning the state.

Ohio has strengthened for Trump on account of a new Trump+5% poll. Trump has led in the past 5 polls, raising his chances from 78% last week to 90% this week.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22 Sep 2015 to 22 Sep 2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Trump is now in his strongest position of the entire election cycle, even though his chances of winning are about 1 in 5. This change reflects what we have seen in the national polls a week or two ago. Since these analyses rely on state polls, there is a lag as new polls come in and old polls drop out. The next week will be interesting to see if and where Trump “maxes out”, as Clinton seems to be recovering from her bad streak of national polls.

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate (preparation) over drinks.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, next Monday, the Shoreline chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Stephen with a polite reminder about polls.

Samantha Bee: “Asking” the “tough” questions: Part I and Part II.

Thom: Why won’t the media push back on liar think tanks & experts.

Jim Earl: An obituary for televangelist Jan Crouch.

The 2016 Sexist, Racist Clown Show:

• Sam Seder: Mike Pence refuses to distance himself from David Duke.
• David Pakman: The truth about Donald Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers with Lewis Black on Drumpf and election coverage
• PsychoSuperMom: Other People’s Money
• Sen. Reid: Drumpf is “a liar.”
• Olbermann:
  

  The fraudulent Trump has to have somebody ELSE say POTUS was born here. The fish is deplorable from the head. Vol.3: pic.twitter.com/6RvZerkfAh

  — Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) September 16, 2016

• Rating Drumpf and Clinton on honesty
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf supporter punches elderly woman in the face.
• Sam Seder: “Daddy, daddy, we have to do this”, or how Drumpf says he developed his family leave plan
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf on inner cities
• Sam Seder: Obama eviscerates Drumpf in Philly.
• David Pakman: Drumpf campaign staffers quit because they aren’t getting paid.
• Young Turks: Drumpf drops Birferism.
• Stephen: The Drumpf foundation needs your help.
• The most racist person.
• Joy Reid on Drumpf’s Birfer surrender.
• Mark Fiore: Deplorables.
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf Jr. says Sr. can release tax records because people would scrutinize them.
• Young Turks: Dr. Oz show edits out awkward Drumpf comment about kissing Ivanka
• Maddow: White supremacists praise Drumpf as Hillary calls out “deplorables.”
• Sam Seder: Trump In Flint was forced by Pastor to stop political speech in her church, repeatedly
• Sam Seder: Next day, Drumpf trash-talks same Pastor.
• David Packman: Colin Powell says Drumpf is a “national disgrace”.
• Stephen: Dr. Oz asks Donald Drumpf to diagnose himself
• Drumpf’s pay to play
• Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf on Hillary’s phones.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf surrenders, “Obama is OFFICIALLY an American and Hillary started birtherism”
• Thom: Electing Drumpf to fix corruption is like smoking to cure cancer
• Drumpf’s Press Secretary: Will Drumpf bomb mars?
• Young Turks: Why Drumpf can’t become President
• Trevor: Deplorables between the scenes
• Colbert: What do Donald Drumpf’s medical records really say?
• Young Turks: #LoserDonald Jr. makes holocaust joke.
• Samantha Bee with This Week in WTF: Latinos for Trump?
• Young Turks: Angry Ivanka walks out of Cosmo interview
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at the Drumpf Foundation
• David Pakman: NY investigates Drumpf Foundation
• Farron Cousins: Yes 1/2 of Drumpf supporters are deplorable.
• Sam Seder: Megyn Kelly shuts down Katrina Pierson

Stephen with some North Korean leader nukes sarcasm.

Susie Sampson chats with a (rather deplorable) White Supremacist.

James Corden: Political monologue.

Seth Meyers: Dammit! Wells Fargo.

Samantha Bee: Outfoxed by FOX.

Thom: A post-factual world.

Hillary

• Stephen: Rough week for Hillary
• Seth Meyers with Hey! Hillary and the basket of deplorables.
• Matthew Filipowicz: Outrage over Hillary Clinton’s comments:

• Seth Meyers with Bernie Sanders: The case for Hillary
• James Corden: Hillary has a basket of issues.
• Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Hillary Clinton
• Trevor: Hillary Clinton’s bad week

from

• Clinton campaign Drumpf doesn’t see Obama as American.
• Stephen: The Lunghazi scandal rages, a healthy cartoon Hillary speaks out
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Hillary Clinton and the Basket of Deplorables

Daily Show with outrage court: Patriotism vs. Protest

White House: West Wing Week.

Seth Meyers: Don’t forget to vote!

Conan with a political monologue.

Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Rudy Giuliani.

Colbert does Trevor Noah Part I and Part II.

Thom: How Higher Education is being folded into the Libertarian movement.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
96.2% probability of winning	3.8% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes	Mean of 229 electoral votes

I’m buried this week, so this report will be brief. Let me first mention that I usually send out Tweets from @hominidviews with each poll I add to the database, and include a graph of the recent polling for the state. I also announce new analyses there, and sometimes offer quick previews when I don’t have time to do a full analysis. So follow me at @hominidviews for these updates.

Last week Donald Trump had made small gains over Sec. Hillary Clinton. Plenty of new polls have come—about 35—and many of these polls were conducted during at least part of Clinton’s “bad week.” Not surprisingly, Trump makes gains.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 96,242 times and Trump wins 3,758 times (including the 702 ties). The previous analysis had Clinton winning almost 100% of the simulated elections. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 96.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.8% probability of winning.

Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. This is substantially down from the 340 Clinton had last week, but still above the 270 threshold needed to win.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
11.8% probability of a majority	88.2% probability of a majority
Mean of 49 seats	Mean of 51 seats

An analysis of state head-to-head polls in Senate races suggests that Republicans would most likely control the Senate if the election was to be held today. Democrats have made small improvements since my previous analysis in July.

After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1239 times, there were 10566 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 88195 times. Democrats have a 11.8% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 88.2% probability of controlling the Senate. This is only up slightly from the previous analysis. Where Democrats have gained is in the number of expected seats, going from 48.2 (on average) to 48.5. The median number of seats remains at 48.

A few states warrant comment.

The Arizona race has gone in Sen. John McCain’s (R) favor. He was at a 76% chance in July; now he is nearly at 100%. That said, the polling show great variability, so Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick may not be down for the count just yet.

Nothing has changed in Illinois, in the seat held by Republican Mark Kirk. Democrat Tammy Duckworth only has a 38% chance of winning, but the polling is old and (possibly an outlier). Illinois may well be a pick-up, but we don’t have good, recent polling to say so.

Last July, U.S. Representative Baron Hill (D) withdrew from the Indiana Senate race to make room for former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D). That changed the nature of the race. The state is now widely considered a Democratic pick-up.

Missouri was nearly a toss-up in July. Now it is solid for Republican Roy Blunt. Democrat Jason Kander only wins 22 the 100,000 simulated elections.

In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was leading Republican Joe Heck with a 67% probability of winning in July. Alas, the polling since then has favored Heck, and the Republican now has a 91% of winning an election now. Still, most of the polls are extremely close.

New Hampshire’s incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte has been in the fight for her life against Democrat Maggie Hassan. In July, the race was tied up. And, the fact is, Hassan leads in most polls. But one strong recent poll gives Ayotte the edge with a 78% probability of winning right now.

In Ohio, Democrat Ted Strickland has been slowly losing ground to incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R). The graph says it all:

Pennsylvania was red in the previous analysis. But Sen. Pat Toomey (R) has been slipping to Democrat Katie McGinty, and the Democrat now has an 87% chance of winning now.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet. And on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Seth Meyers: Political things that actually happened.

Jimmy Dore: FAUX News media critic doesn’t understand they are GOP propaganda outlet.

Mental Floss: 26 facts about magic tricks.

Stephen: Obama’s weekend of insults.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

How to talk to a woman who suffers from headphones in ears.

The 2016 Alt-Right Clown Show:

• Mark Fiore: Turning a corner
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the candidate’s scandals
• Sam Seder: Pam Bondi denies she was bought by Drumpf
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf campaign elevates the absurd
• Roy Zimmerman: T-Rump:
  https://youtu.be/Xwu-hagvVLE
• Roy Zimmerman is looking for more verses.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf and body language.
• MSNBC: Drumpf’s Iraq War lie and Esquire Editor clarifies interview
• Drumpf openly bragging about Pay-to-Play.
• Daily Show: Donald Drumpf courts the Black vote.
• Clinton on Drumpf appearing on RT
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the Candidates (mostly Drumpf) on national security.
• Stephen: Does This Drumpf-shaped cloud predict a Republican win in November?
• Maddow: An echo of history Drumpf won’t want to hear
• Ann Telnaes: Drumpf pays to play.
• Maddow: Drumpf brings chaos to usually staid briefings
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf’s secret plan to stabalize the Middle East
• Seth Meyers takes a closer look at Drumpf’s minority outreach.
• Maddow: No, Vladimir Putin did not call Drumpf ‘brilliant’
• Roy Zimmerman is looking for new verses (of his T-RUMP song)
• Young Turks: Trump loves Putin:

• Stephen: The Drumpf campaign goes off script.
• Maddow: Scrutinizing Drumpf’s plans for new Generals

Stephen with Captain Sully.

Mental Floss: Why do traffic jams occur?

Bill Maher: Future headlines.

Young Turks: Kaepernick National Anthem protest continues to grow.

Jim Earl: Obituary for conservative legend Phyllis Schlafly.

James Corden: Where is Dr. Ben Carson’s luggage?

What are think tanks?

Colbert’s one year anniversary remembered roasts.

Sam Seder plays Tim Heidecker’s “I Am a Cuck”

Hillary Makes History:

• Andrea Mitchell: Life-long Republican former George W. Bush adviser endorses Clinton
• MSNBC: WaPo editorial says too much is being made of Clinton’s emails.
• Young Turks: Rince Priebus thinks Hillary doesn’t smile enough.
• Sam Seder: Newt Gingrich has a coughing fit while talking about Clinton’s coughing fit.
• Clinton on “not smiling enough”.

Slate: Everything you need to know about espresso.

PsychoSuperMom: Then You’re A Feminist.

Stephen on the forum and Matt Lauer.

Young Turks: Worst ad of 2016.

Seth Meyers and Michelle Obama give college freshman advice.

Trevor: Zika!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
>99.9% probability of winning	<0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 340 electoral votes	Mean of 198 electoral votes

There have only been 18 new polls since the analysis last week. (Actually, there have been a flood of polls done using internet panels, but I still refuse to include those polls.) Most notible among the polls is an Emerson poll from Maine that includes sub-polls for Maine’s two congressional districts. This is only the second pollster providing the CD breakdowns, and both have found the state split.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,991 times and Donald Trump wins 9 times. Clinton received (on average) 340 to Trump’s 198 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than 0.1% probability of winning. This is Trump’s best performance in months.

Over the past week, we have seen the national polls tighten up a bit. Even though most polling is done in swing states, it still takes some time for analyses based on state head-to-head polls to catch up with national polling. We should expect to see a shift toward Trump.

That said, the electoral map is still strongly favoring Clinton. It is difficult, right now, to see a path for Trump to achieve 269 EVs.

Here are a few state notes.

Georgia had five current polls for the previous analyses, but four have “aged-out” and now we have one current poll. As a result, the state has gone from 50.1% probability of Clinton taking the state to 52.7% for Trump. In other words, the state is still a dead tie.

In Iowa, one poll has aged out and two new polls have been added, one with Clinton up +2% and one with Trump up +5%. The net result is that Iowa has moved from 56.4% probability of Clinton winning the state in the last analysis to a 51% probability of Trump taking the state now. It is a toss-up.

The new Maine poll has moved Clinton chances of winning the state from 100% down to a 97.3% probability. Clinton’s chances in Maine’s 1st CD has gone from 97% to 99.9%. And in Maine’s 2nd CD, Trump’s chances have gone from 54% to a 76.2% probability of taking the state now.

This week we lose one Missouri poll and gain a new one with Trump up +9%. The net result is that the state goes from Trump winning with a 93.9% probability to a 99.6% probability of taking the state.

We have no new polls in Nevada this week, but one poll has aged out, moving Nevada from an 84.1% chance for Clinton to a 64.3% chance.

A surprisingly close new poll in New Jersey suggests that Trump has a 21.8% chance of taking the state. That said, Clinton has won every NJ poll to date.

In Ohio, two of last week’s five polls age out. This has moved Clinton’s chances down from 90% to an 82% chance of taking the state.

A new Rhode Island poll is surprisingly close. Trump now has gone from almost no chance of taking the state to a 30% chance. Still the polling overall favors Clinton.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

As the summer comes to a close, we swing into full political season. So, please join us for discussion and a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. All are welcomed—no extreme vetting or forced deportations involved.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

https://youtu.be/uvoHG5DRqYg

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Next Monday, the newly reactivated Shoreline chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Billy Bragg: There Is Power In A Union

U2: Maggie’s Farm

(Live version of Roy Zimmerman’s “Unions are to blame.”)

Paul Robeson: Joe Hill

Rush: Working Man

Pete Seeger Which Side Are You On

Natalie Merchant: Which side are you on

Dropkick Murphys: Workers Song

Strawbs: Part of the union

And now, a message from the President:

Larry Wilmore does the Late Show.

Stephen: Are Russian hackers targeting American voters.

Thom: Exposing the Koch’s environment corruption.

Stephen with Congressman John Lewis (who goes surfing).

The 2016 White Nationalist Party Campaign Drumpf Campaign:

• Kimmel: Picking Drumpf is like picking a shirt.
• David Pakman: Drumpf polls at 0% among Blacks in some polls.
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf extremism cuts at America’s foundation
• Stephen: What Drumpf’s meeting to Mexico probably looked like.
• PsychoSuperMom: We are (mostly) all immigrants, you shmucks:

• Young Turks: Why Drumpf has no ground game.
• Thom: Drumpf’s one man Good Cop, Bad Cop routine.
• David Pakman: Drumpf DESTROYED by Mexican Prez, who told him Mexico won’t pay for wall
• Maddow: New poll says Drumpf African-American numbers are abysmal
• George Lopez’s: position on Drumpf has hardened
• Seth Meyers: A couple of things about Drumpf’s modeling agency.
• Drumpf on a really stoopid tirade.
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf nativist speech follows dark US pattern
• Young Turks: Remaining Hispanic supporters flee Drumpf campaign.
• Farron Cousins: Summary of Drumpf’s immigration speech—Immigrants are going to murder you
• David Pakman: Former Drumpf model admits she was working in US illegally
• Steve Kornacki: Nativist message costing Drumpf GOP support
• Joy Reid: Drumpf Foundation investigation
• Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann claims Drumpf was elevated to nomination by God.
• Colbert: Statesman Drumpf lasted about 3 minutes.
• Drumpf’s disastrous foreign “diplomacy”
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf in Mexico.
• James Corden: Drumpf goes to Mexico.
• Susie Sampson: Are Canadians down with Drumpf?.
• Stephen with Double Vision
• Thom: Drumpf could learn from the “Rat Park” experiment
• Ann Telnaes: Drumpf prepares for the presidential debate.
• Sam Seder: Right after Mexico Drumpf, “they don’t know it yet, but they’ll pay for the wall.”
• Jimmy Dore: Donald Drumpf pleasures praises himself over Dwayne Wade’s family tragedy.
• Drumpf’s immigration rhetoric: “rapists” and “criminals”
• Young Turks: Racist right rallies for Drumpf.
• Steve Kornacki: “Here’s your electoral problem, Mr. Drumpf”:

• Conan speaks with Drumpf’s doctor
• David Pakman: Drumpf’s doctor admits writing “medical letter” to please Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf’s Doctor can totally explain why his note sounds like Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers: An interview with Donald Drumpf’s doctor
• Stephen: Drumpf’s extraordinary health report.
• David Pakman: Drumpf flip-flip-flip-flops back to “DEPORT THEM” in “major speech”
• Drumpf Models illegally hired immigrants without work visas
• Young Turks: Drumpf campaign manager’s insane military rape comments

Stephen: It’s finally time to cut off that Weiner.

Adam Ruins Everything: Why you don’t need 8 glasses of water a day.

Seth Meyers: A closer look at Clinton’s and Drumpf’s debate prep:
https://youtu.be/X_oVFoBH9YM

David Pakman: Overall, life is much better for most people under President Obama.

Farron Cousins: Sarah Palin’s head injury made her even more crazy.

The Flames in Maine Fall Mainly on LePage:

• David Pakman: Gov. Paul LePage (R-ME) is overtly racist.
• Sam Seder: Nutburger Gov. Paul LePage: People of color or Hispanic origin are the enemy.
• Proof that Gov. Paul LePage is a racist
• Maddow: Paul LePage scrambles as Republican support fades

Seth Meyers: A closer look at extreme weather events and climate change.

Stephen: Scandals surrounding the Clinton Foundation.

Jimmy Dore: Political news of the week.

Weiner’s Wares:

• James Corden: Anthony Weiner can’t stop.
• Conan: Weiner sexts some other things
• Jimmy Dore: Anthony Weiner’s penis destroys his entire life. Again.

Sam Seder: Shepard Smith goes rogue on FAUX—by casually NOT lying about voter suppression.

Farron Cousins: Surprise! Republican states are the real welfare queens.

Mental Floss: 25 parenting life hacks.

Sports Patriots:

• Thom: Kaepernick isn’t unpatriotic, Levi Strauss is…
• David Pakman: Does anyone see the insane hypocrisy of Colin Kaepernick smears?
• Farron Cousins: White people freak out when Black athletes speak up
• Young Turks: Veterans defend Colin Kaepernick’s right to sit
• Stephen: Colin Kaepernick’s bold stance is technically a bold sits.
• Sam Seder: FAUX News spokes-model Whitesplains MLK to Colin Kaepernick

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Stephen: Sarah Palin crashes and burns.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 350 electoral votes	Mean of 188 electoral votes

We now have about 20 new polls since the previous analysis last week. There Sec. Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in mean electoral votes 347 to 199. If the election had been held last week we would expect Clinton to win with near certainty.

The new polls come largely from swing states, and include: 2 AZ, 1 FL, 1 MI, 1 MO, 2 NC, 1 NH, 1 NY, 2 OH, 4 PA, 1 VA, 4 WI, and 1 WV.

A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, gives Clinton all 100,000 wins. Clinton received (on average) 350 to Trump’s 188 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would be expected to win with greater than 99% probability.

Basically, the newest polls don’t change the picture much. The only state to flip is Georgia, that went from Trump with a 72.5% probability of taking to state to Clinton with a 50.1% chance. In other words, Georgia looks like a toss-up. The change isn’t because of new polling. Rather, one old poll “dated out”. Frankly, Clinton’s standing is being driven by one poll from JMC Analytics that has her up +7%. I suspect this poll is an outlier.

In Missouri, a new PPP poll has Trump up +6%, which improve his chances of taking the state from 79.4% last week to 93.9% this week.

In North Carolina we lost one old poll and gained two new polls. The net result is no change: Clinton still has an 84% chance of taking the state now.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Today, G.O.P. Presidential Nominee Donald J. Trump will hold a rally in Everett, WA. So, think of our gathering of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally as the anti-rally “safe space.” No play-dough, bubbles or puppies, but there will be plenty to drink. All are welcomed—no extreme vetting involved.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

https://youtu.be/x7bPu0ygKlk

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Russ Feingold hits Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on student loans.

Conan and Sen. Franken: Humor in politics.

Obama to Congress: Louisiana may need more funding.

Thom: Tribal rights & the Dakota access pipeline.

What the polls do to us.

Clinton Makes History:

• Stephen: Is Hillary healthy enough to serve?
• Kimmel: Clinton prepares to debate Drumpf.
• Conan: Al Franken on Hillary:

• Clinton calls out Drumpf’s racism
• Stephen: Sen. Kaine remembers that call from Clinton.
• Kimmel: Clinton tries to read Drumpf quotes with a straight face.
• Conan: Proof that Hillary is healthy.
• Kimmel: Hillary on the State Dept. release of her emails.
• Stephen: Hillary’s emails…are they a thing?
• Kimmel: #picklegate part 1
• Kimmel: #picklegate part 2. The Alex Jones investigation
• Farron Cousins: Senate Republicans are secretly supporting Hillary Clinton

Farron Cousins: Alt Right—Just another name for mainstream Republican.

The Other Washington episode 6.5: Paid sick leave.

Thom: The secret list of those who have voted twice.

Colbert: Real Tim Kaine reacts to fake Tim Kaine.

Run The Jewels: “Nobody Speak”.

White House: West Wing Week.

The 2016 GOP- White Nationalist- Drumpf-Fest:

• Young Turks: “Undercover voters” are skewing polls against Drumpf.
• David Pakman: Drumpf’s epic flip-flop
• Liberal Viewer: FAUX News credits ACLU for Drumpf flip-flop
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf calls Hillary a bigot.
• Stephen: Drumpf’s Town Hall–The Softening
• Young Turks: Eric “dumber than Donald” Drumpf blames stagnant wages on refugees
• Rachel Maddow: Donald Drumpf loses public pushing fringe priorities
• Priorities USA: Watching
• David Pakman: Former IRS Chief says no reason Drumpf cannot release taxes.
• Young Turks: What happened to Drumpf financial and Drumpf mortgage?
• Jimmy Dore: Drumpf & other super rich white douchebags wish they were minorities
• PsychoSuperMom: The Very Model Of A Modern Alt Right Hate Filled Site:

• Drumpf: The music video
• The Moscowian Candidate
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Drumpf’s flip-flop on immigration
• Young Turks: crowd boos Drumpf’s flip flop
• Stephen: Rents at Drumpf Tower have skyrocketed
• Sen. Al Franken with Conan: Most terrifying election of our lifetime.
• Jimmy Dore: 12-YO Drumpf campaign office head shares why he’s making America great again
• Rachel Maddow: Racist-right finds new prominence via Donald Drumpf.
• Young Turks: CNN panel laughs at Katrina Pierson’s Trump Defense
• Thom and Pap: The Drumpfster fire is out of control.
• James Corden: Drumpf’s Dr. lied about some of his credentials.
• Young Turks: How Drumpf funnels campaign donations into his pocket
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf in Austin
• Drumpf’s health blowback.
• Drumpf’s violence
• Priorities USA: Pledge.
• Farron Cousins: Michele Bachmann (!!!) is advising Drumpf on foreign policy issues
• David Pakman: Unhinged Republican blames Obama for creating Donald Drumpf
• Michael Brooks: Triumph the Insult Comic Dog on trans bathroom commercials
• Young Turks: Donald Drumpf ruins Ann Coulter’s book launch party.
• Stephen: Google “Donald Drumpf Rudy Giuliani Drag Queen Motorboat”
• That was one extremely moving apology Mr. Drumpf
• Young Turks: The crazy Alex Jones that Drumpf loves
• Farron Cousins: Heartbroken Ann Coulter lashes out at Donald Drumpf.
• Jimmy Dore:Drumpf tweets shredded by TYT’s John Iadarola
• The Breitbart Candidate:
  https://youtu.be/xj5BSFoXgf4
• Young Turks: Trump to black voters, “what the hell do you have to lose?”

Bassem Youssef: The ISIS Hunter.

David Pakman: The FAUX sex scandal explodes.

Young Turks: Gov. Paul LePage leaves homophobic meltdown voicemail.

America’s worst idea.

Pres. Obama celebrates 100 years of National Parks.

Thom: Voter suppression and the mathematical proof.

Young Turks: Andrea Tantaros, “Faux News a sex-fueled, Playboy mansion-like cult

Tim Kaine jams with Jon Batiste and Stay Human.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votes	Mean of 191 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton with nearly 100% probability of beating Donald Trump in an election held last week. Her average Electoral College total was 337 to Trump’s 201.

Since last week’s analysis, there have been 22 new polls released in 16 states. We have three new polls in North Carolina, two in Florida, a pair in Michigan, and two in Virginia. Note that I did not include a recent poll from South Carolina because it was commissioned by the state Democratic Party. I explain my inclusion and exclusion criteria for polls in the FAQ.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins all 100,000 times. This time, Clinton received (on average) 347 to Trump’s 191 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a very close to a 100% probability of beating Trump.

Clinton is now in an extremely strong position. Even if she wins only the “safe Clinton” and “strong Clinton” states (i.e. darkest shades of blue) and loses all of the states that “lean Clinton” or are “weak Clinton” (i.e. medium or light shade of blue), she wins the election with 294 electoral votes. That is, Clinton still wins the election without Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon and Ohio. I should add that nobody seriously expects Clinton to lose Oregon; the most recent poll we have in the state is from mid-June, and has Clinton leading Trump by a few points.

A few things have changed since last week that bumps up Clinton’s electoral vote total.

In Iowa and old Docking poll aged out and a new poll was released giving us three current polls. The newest has Clinton up by +2%, one has Trump up by 1.2% and the third is a dead tie. The net result is that Clinton won 57.2% of the simulated elections suggesting she is slightly favored, but statistically, Iowa is a tie.

In Missouri we lose two old polls, including one with Trump up by +9.9%. The three current polls have Trump up: +1%, +2% and +3%. As a result, Trump dropped from a 91% to a 84% chance of winning the state.

For the previous analysis we only had an old poll for New Mexico that had Clinton up by about 3%. But a new PPP poll in the state has Clinton up 40% to 31% (+9%). Consequently Clinton moves from a 76% probability of winning the state last week to a 99% this week.

North Carolina moves to a lighter shade of blue this week. Last week we had three current polls with Clinton up by +9% and +2% and Trump up by +4%. Three new polls are added this week that has Clinton up +2%, Trump up +10%, and a tie. The net result is that Clinton went from a 91% probability of winning the state last week to an 84% chance of taking it this week.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]