“With a Republican Congress sitting shotgun, Mitt Romney will put the middle class on the roof and take us for a long, painful ride”
(Full text.)
Michelle speaks
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Believe it our not, this will be the first week of the 2012 presidential General Election. That’s worth discussing. Oh…and the Democratic Convention is now underway.
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter meets. And the Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.
With 236 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.
Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit
| Obama | Romney |
| 97.2% probability of winning | 2.8% probability of winning |
| Mean of 305 electoral votes | Mean of 233 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes. If the election was held then, Obama would be expected to win with a 96.9% probability, and Romney with a 3.1% probability.
Only seven new polls covering five states have been released since then. But, on the heels of the Republican convention and the start of the Democratic convention, this seems like a good place to take stock of the race. First, the new polls:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| FL | PPP | 31-Aug | 02-Sep | 1548 | 2.5 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
| MI | EPIC/MRA | 28-Aug | 28-Aug | 1200 | 2.6 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| MO | PPP | 28-Aug | 29-Aug | 621 | 3.9 | 41 | 53 | R+12 |
| NC | PPP | 31-Aug | 02-Sep | 1012 | 3.1 | 48 | 48 | tie |
| NC | SurveyUSA | 26-Aug | 30-Aug | 543 | 4.3 | 43 | 46 | R+3 |
| NC | Elon U | 25-Aug | 30-Aug | 1089 | 3.0 | 43 | 47 | R+4 |
| WV | R.L. Repass | 22-Aug | 25-Aug | 401 | 4.9 | 38 | 52 | R+14 |
Close as ever, the new Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +1%. This poll has been taken as evidence for a lack of a strong convention (or Ryan) bump. But, who knows in Florida, the next poll may go strongly for Romney.
Michigan puts Obama over Romney by a rather weak +3%. The longer term trend suggests a much tighter race than earlier in the year. But Obama still seems to have the advantage:
A surprise poll comes out of Missouri, where Romney leads Obama by +12%. This double digit lead is a wider gap than we have seen recently. But the real surprise is the increasing variability seen among pollsters. Just two polls ago, Rasmussen found Obama leading Romney by +1%:
Three North Carolina polls mostly favor Romney. The two tie in the most recent poll. The two other polls give Romney a +3% and +4% advantage. With six “current” polls in the state, the weight of evidence is that Romney would win the state (now) with a 69% probability:
In West Virginia, Romney leads Obama by a +14%. Believe it or not, this race has tightened up since the last couple of polls.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 97,197 times and Romney wins 2,803 times (including the 330 ties). Obama receives (on average) 305 (+3) to Romney’s 233 (-3) electoral votes. Obama has a 97.2% (+0.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 2.8% (-0.3%) probability of winning an election held now. The difference from the previous analysis is really too small to “make” anything over.
Now, let’s consider the longer term trends in this race. I’ve done as series of Monte Carlo analyses, conducted every seven days using all the polls from the last year. For each simulation, I follow the same rules of including only polls from the past month (and the most recent poll before then if there are none) (FAQ). The following graph shows how the election is “scored” over time. The middle (magenta) line is the median number of electoral votes for Obama. When that line dips below the dashed line, Romney wins. Above it, Obama wins.
The pair of tan lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 75% of the results for Obama were found. And the outer green lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 95% of the results for Obama were found.
Romney was at his best in the 4th quarter of 2011. Even then, his probability of winning the election was never greater than about 30%. Beginning in late January, Romney slipped into zero percent territory, and has been there until recently. He has now recovered to same place he was in late January.
The general election has just started, so we are at a point with much potential for big change in the standings. In 2008, we saw McCain begin to do, only to have Obama run away with it in the end.
Labor Day open thread
Why Unions matter more than ever.
Roy ZImmerman: The Problem With Democrats:
Bill Maher’s New Rule: GOP must admit George W. Bush exists .
The making of Labor Day.
The redevelopment of Yesler Terrace.
Chair Talk:
- The Million Dollar Chair.
- Jon celebrates Clint Eastwood’s ‘Fistful Of Awesome’ speech
- The old man from Gran Torino crashes the RNC.
- Bill Maher defends Clint Eastwood.
- Clint Eastwood’s Comedy Central Chair Roast.
Bashir: Is Paul Ryan the fastest ‘Kenyan’ candidate ever???
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Aloha, Hawaii!:
The debate between Inslee and McKenna.
Who is Paul Ryan?
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, South Carolina edition:
Pap: GOP bound to fail.
Thom and Pap: Obama endorses Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.
Liberal Viewer: The most negative campaign ever?
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
The G.O.P. Multimedia Extravaganza!
- Young Turks: Mitt on Abortion.
- The Worst jokes from the convention (via Political Wire).
- Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: RNC 2012—Romney for President?
- Mitt: “Say”.
- Young Turks: Tim Pawlenty’s jokes at the Republican Convention.
- Clint Eastwood offers a rambling and surreal bit of “performance art” at the convention.
- Raw Story interviews Clint Eastwood’s chair
- Jonathan Mann: Clint Eastwood Talking To A Chair:
- SlateTV: Eastwooding
- Young Turks: Clint Eastwood and the invisible Obama.
- Ann Telnaes: Romney talks to his chair.
- Maddow: Eastwood’s terribly timed RNC meltdown
- Sam Seder: Clint Eastwood, Mitt Romney & the RNC in a nutshell
- Comedian John Fugelsang reacts to Clint Eastwood
- Sam Seder and friends on Fact checking Paul Ryan’s RNC Speech (hint: full of lies!).
- Thom: It’s all another Republican con job.
- Young Turks: Mitt’s acceptance speech.
- Young Turks: The Ryan acceptance speech.
- Sam Seder: Ann Romney’s RNC Speech (or Tell Us How You REALLY Feel!).
- Thom: How the MSM helps the GOP Big Lie.
- Mark Fiore: The Love Me Mitt doll!
- Thom: GOP’s nightmarish response to MLK’s “I Have a Dream”.
- Mitt’s convention: Not going as planned.
- Jon would settle for ANY truth in Ryan’s speech
- Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: RNC 2012, elephants and a Newt!
- Jonathan Mann: Your Monster’s Come To Life
- Sharpton: The history of Mitt Romney’s flips and flops
- Young Turks: Buying Mitt Romney…The real Convention Is at Cracker Bay.
- Sam Seder: RNC attendees throw peanuts at African American CNN camera operator. “This is how we feed the animals”.
- Mitt accidentally calls the United States a “company”
- Thom: Can Romney flip-flop from being wealthy and out of touch?
- Young Turks: Paul Ryan blames Obama for S&P downgrade?!?
- Sam Seder: Jan Brewer endorses Obama at RNC?
- Mitt Romney: You didn’t build it…you DESTROYED it!
Clint on Obama:
Roy Zimmerman: Mitt’s America the Beatiful:
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Maddow: Court strikes down Ohio early voter restrictions.
The Democratic plan for gun control.
Veterans who support Obama.
Liberal Viewer: Colbert in the tank for Obama?
Ann Telnaes: Republican VP candidates, past and present.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, The Idaho verse.
Romney’s plan to “strengthen” the middle class.
Young Turks: The Michelle Obama slave mag cover.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Poll Analysis: Even more Ryan bump
| Obama | Romney |
| 96.9% probability of winning | 3.1% probability of winning |
| Mean of 302 electoral votes | Mean of 236 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed G.O.P. presidential candidate Mitt Romney edging up to almost a 1% probability of winning an election held now. Romney lagged in expected electoral votes to President Barack Obama by 230 to 308.
Since then, 15 new polls covering 12 states have been released.
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CO | Keating | 21-Aug | 22-Aug | 500 | 4.4 | 48 | 44 | O+4 |
| CT | Quinnipiac | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 1472 | 2.6 | 52 | 45 | O+7 |
| CT | PPP | 22-Aug | 23-Aug | 881 | — | 53 | 40 | O+13 |
| FL | CNN/TIME | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 895 | 3.5 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
| IA | PPP | 23-Aug | 26-Aug | 1244 | 2.8 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
| MI | Mitchell | 23-Aug | 23-Aug | 1277 | 2.7 | 46.6 | 46.7 | R+0.1 |
| MO | Mason-Dixon | 22-Aug | 23-Aug | 625 | 4.0 | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
| MO | Rasmussen | 22-Aug | 22-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
| NV | PPP | 23-Aug | 26-Aug | 831 | 3.4 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
| NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 23-Aug | 25-Aug | 710 | 3.5 | 51 | 37 | O+14 |
| NC | CNN/Time | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 766 | 3.5 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| NC | SurveyUSA | 18-Aug | 23-Aug | 540 | 4.3 | 43 | 43 | tie |
| OH | Columbus Dispatch | 15-Aug | 25-Aug | 1758 | 2.1 | 45 | 45 | tie |
| PA | Philadelphia Inquirer | 21-Aug | 23-Aug | 601 | 4.0 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
| VA | Rasmussen | 23-Aug | 23-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | tie |
Obama takes the latest Colorado poll by +4% over Romney, and he leads in four of the five current polls for the state.
Two polls in Connecticut both go to Obama. The Quinnipiac poll has Obama up by a modest +7%. A slightly older PPP poll has Obama up by +13%.
The latest Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +4%. The current Florida polls go 4 to 2 for Romney, and Romney is given a 97% chance of winning the state right now.
Obama is up by +2% in the new Iowa poll. The candidates split the two current polls, but the poll that has Obama up is the much larger of the two: 
In Michigan, Romney leads Obama by a weak +0.1%. The candidates split the four current polls, but the weight of the evidence has Obama up slightly with a 57% probability of winning an election held now.
The candidates split the two Missouri polls, with Romney up by +7% in one and Obama up by +1% in another. Obama has only led in this one poll out of the 6 current Missouri polls: 
Nevada has Obama up by a slender +3% over Romney, slightly beating the +2% he had in the other current poll: 
Little surprise that New Jersey has Obama up by a double-digit lead (+14%) over Romney.
In North Carolina, Romney has a +1% lead over Obama in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. The weight of evidence in the five current polls has Romney up by the slightest margin and a 56% probability of taking the state in an election held now:
Ohio is a tie at 45% each in the new poll. But Obama has led in three of the current six polls (with two ties), so the weight of evidence gives him an 87% probability of taking the state right now:
Another Pennsylvania poll gives Obama a +9% lead over Romney. Obama take all three of the current polls and would be expected to win an election now with a 99% probability.
Virginia is all tied up at 47% in the newest poll. Overall, Obama takes 4 of the six current polls, so he ends up with a 90% probability of winning an election held now.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 96,863 times and Romney wins 3,137 times (including the 449 ties). Obama receives (on average) 302 (-6) to Romney’s 236 (+6) electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Obama to win with a 96.9% (-2.3%) probability and Romney with a 3.1% (+2.3%) probability.
Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Material for tonight’s discussions: The hurricane that is the G.O.P. convention, Rob McKenna’s refusal to release his tax returns, and, perhaps, today’s Arizona, Vermont, Alaska and Oklahoma elections ….
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.
With 235 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.
What is Rob McKenna hiding?
Rob McKenna is refusing to release his tax returns:
Washington gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna said Tuesday he will not release any of his tax returns, dismissing the matter as a distraction from important policy discussions.
McKenna, the state’s attorney general, said he has disclosed enough information in the personal financial forms that candidates file with the state. He called the tax-return debate – both here and nationally – a “phony issue.”
McKenna, a Republican, said his political rivals are attempting “to change the subject away from the real issues of the state.”
Democratic rival Jay Inslee, a former congressman, released five years of tax returns last week, and his campaign had called on McKenna to do the same.
I’m sure McKenna wants you to believe that he is taking a principled stand in refusing to release his tax returns, but his recalcitrance is problematic for the gubernatorial wannabe.
First, even if the “principled stand” hypothesis is true, standing tall with Mitt Romney isn’t going to endear him to Washingtonians. The state is just not that into Mittens. In other words, if McKenna wants to peddle himself as a “different kind of Republican,” one that is palatable to the voters of our state, he shouldn’t emulate, pretend to be, or come off as, in any way, an entitled one-percenter.
Romney has good reason to hide his tax returns. He’s done the political calculation. Releasing his tax returns would be much more damaging than disclosure. And it really is understandable—the fabulously wealthy have more opportunity to dodge taxes in ways that, if disclosed to the rest of us, would induce a bout of severe vertigo followed by repulsion-induced wrenching.
But McKenna…not so many tax dodging options. So if McKenna is “standing on principle,” he takes all the damage of non-discosure without any of the benefits.
(And he will take damage from this. Washingtonians are big on transparency. Don’t think for a moment that McKenna’s non-disclosure is going to be swept under the rug.)
So, really, if McKenna is merely standing on “principle”, he’s foolishly hurting himself.
On the other hand, maybe Rob isn’t a fool. Maybe he has done the calculation of relative political damage from disclosure versus non-disclosure. And he came down on the side of hiding his tax returns. If so, what is Rob McKenna hiding?
Is McKenna being foolish here? Or does he really have something to hide in his tax returns?
Intelligent voters want to know.
Jay’s Got a Friend
G.O.P. Convention preview
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Sam Seder and Ari Berman: Fighting back against Republican led voter suppression efforts.
Willard!
- Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican—Vermont edition
- Ed: The Latino Etch-A-Sketch, or Romney tries for the Latino vote.
- Mitt Romney on Bain job creation.:
- Zina Saunders: Paul Ryan’s Scouts Honor
- Sam Seder: Why won’t Mitt release his taxes?
- America doesn’t need a Birfer-in-chief.
- Jenn: Mitt Romney has taken the Birfer plunge
- Maddow: Blacks, Hispanics apparently not part of Romney victory plan
- CNN factchecks Romney “welfare” ad: FALSE!
- Young Turks: Mitt Romney’s “energy plan”.
- Maher and Huffington on Paul Ryan.
- Pap: Bain Capital’s Central American blood money.
- The Romney Bunch
- Jonathan Mann: Ultimate Any Rand Porn.
- Young Turks: Mitt goes Birfer.
- Sam Seder: Gawker releases Bain documents before RNC, Romney prays for hurricane.
- Music Video: Full of Mitt:
- Martin Bashir: Why Mitt has 0% Black support.
- Maddow: Romney, Ryan haunted by extremist record.
- Young Turks: Did David Koch buy Ryan a VP slot?
Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.
Obama: They drove the economy into a ditch.
Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
The G.O.P. Convention:
- Grindr for the G.O.P. convention.
- Thom: Why belong to a party that doesn’t want you?
- Ann Telnaes: The abortion issue heading for the G.O.P. convention.
- Young Turks: Limbaugh suggests Obama “hopeful” hurricane will hit convention.
- Susie Sampson asks Stephen Colbert: Can I be your date to the G.O.P. Convention?
- Stephanie: David Schuster jokes about God smiting the G.O.P.
- Thom and Pap: It’s hurricane Akin that is hitting the G.O.P. convention.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Tennessee version.
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Completely honest political debate.
Ed: Republicans are stealing the election in Ohio.
Young Turks: We have found the terrorists and it is us.
The Republican War on Lady Parts:
- Mark Fiore: Legitimate rape and other legitimate science from the house science and lady parts committee
- SlateTV: Todd Akin’s abortion comments could damage his standing.
- Pap: The Republican rape defenders.
- Lawrence O’Donnell: Why Republicans now fear talking about abortion
- Sam Seder with Amanda Marcotte: Todd Akin, rape & GOP “magical” thinking
- Bill Press: Mitt and G.O.P. are a bunch of hypocrites !
- Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Alabama edition:
- Maddow: Did Romney get bad advice in Aikn scandal?
- Letterman: Hurricane approaching G.O.P. Convention proof God is a woman
- Young Turks: GOP candidate Frank Szabo would “stop abortion with deadly force”.
- Ann Telnaes: Romney unveils his energy plan.
- Bill Press: Akin ‘let the cat out of the bag’ for the GOP.
- The Romney-Ryan-Akin platform for women
- Republican women for Obama.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Massachusetts edition
Gov. Jan Brewer introduces the Self Deportation Station:
Thom with more The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Nevada edition.
Obama’s Secret UN Takeover and the Texas Insurgency!
- Sam Seder: TX Judge reveals Obama’s secret U.N. takeover plan!!!
- SlateTV: TX Judge suggests second Obama term might lead to uprising.
- Young Turks: Judge for civil war if Obama wins.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Gaffes and viruses
On Tuesday I mentioned that progressive comedian Dean Obeidallah is coming to Seattle. Dean is not only a comedian, but he is a frequent commentator on those talking head shows.
Well, today he has a CNN Opinion piece that looks at political gaffes, rape and other fun topics:
Politicians make gaffes almost daily. Some they can overcome. Some are fodder for late-night comedians. Some are deadly to their campaigns. Republican congressman Todd Akin’s recent gaffe was so toxic, he may not only have killed his campaign, he may be the political equivalent of a zombie who also infects the Romney/Ryan ticket with his deadly virus.
Read the whole thing here.
Poll Analysis: More Ryan bump
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.2% probability of winning | 0.8% probability of winning |
| Mean of 308 electoral votes | Mean of 230 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a mean of 325 to 213 electoral votes. In an election held then, we would have expected Obama to win with a 99.8% and Romney with a 0.2% probability.
In the last two days there have been a plethora of polls released—16 covering 13 states. Here’s what I’ve found:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CT | Rasmussen | 21-Aug | 21-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 43 | O+8 |
| FL | Quinnipiac | 15-Aug | 21-Aug | 1241 | 3.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| FL | Foster McCollum White | 17-Aug | 17-Aug | 1503 | 2.5 | 39.1 | 53.3 | R+14.3 |
| GA | 20/20 Insight | 15-Aug | 18-Aug | 1158 | 2.9 | 44 | 47 | R+3 |
| MA | PPP | 16-Aug | 19-Aug | 1115 | 2.9 | 55 | 39 | O+16 |
| MI | Glengariff Group | 18-Aug | 20-Aug | 600 | 4.0 | 47.5 | 42.0 | O+5.5 |
| MO | PPP | 20-Aug | 20-Aug | 500 | 4.4 | 42 | 52 | R+10 |
| MT | Rasmussen | 20-Aug | 20-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 38 | 55 | R+17 |
| NV | SurveyUSA | 16-Aug | 21-Aug | 869 | 3.4 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
| NM | Rasmussen | 21-Aug | 21-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 38 | O+14 |
| OH | Ohio Poll | 16-Aug | 21-Aug | 847 | 3.4 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| OH | Quinnipiac | 15-Aug | 21-Aug | 1253 | 3.0 | 50 | 44 | O+6 |
| PA | Muhlenberg | 20-Aug | 22-Aug | 422 | 5.0 | 49 | 40 | O+9 |
| VT | Castleton Poll | 11-Aug | 21-Aug | 477 | — | 62 | 25 | O+37 |
| WI | Quinnipiac | 15-Aug | 21-Aug | 1190 | 3.0 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
| WI | Marquette | 16-Aug | 19-Aug | 576 | 4.2 | 49.8 | 44.3 | O+5.5 |
The unsurprising Obama polls are from Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Likewise, Romney makes a strong showing in Montana and Missouri.
Romney makes a surprisingly weak +3% showing in Georgia, where he has been typically been doing high single digit or double digit leads.
There is a big surprise in Florida. A Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a +3% edge over Romney. That’s not the surprise. A second poll by Foster McCollum White has Romney up by an amazing (unbelievable?) +14%. This poll requires some discussion.
This poll has triggered a lot of chatter among poll collectors. Is it real? Is it honest? Is it an “outlier.” One of the thing I noticed is that the raw tallies in the poll add up to more than 100%—102.13%, to be exact!
I went to the source; I had a chat with the firm’s pollster Eric Foster. Eric was friendly and most helpful. The poll is not sponsored by anyone. Rather, they firm did the poll on their own, as a way to get their feet wet in Florida (so to speak). It is an independent poll. I asked about the percentages summing to greater than 100%, he suggested this is a result of their weighting. I proposed renormalizing the numbers to proportionately reduce them to 100%, and he agreed this was a good strategy.
We then had a discussion about their weighting method. They went to each county to get voter turn-out information by age group and race/ethnicity and used that to weigh the poll (some of the details were lost in our lousy cell phone to cell phone connection). He stands by the numbers.
In other words, a polling firm that is new to Florida used an elaborate and unorthodox turnout model to weight the poll, and ended up with some kind of error that resulted in percentages totaling greater than 100%. I cannot say that I am convinced that what they have done was done correctly. Even so, it meets my poll criteria and it could be correct. (They’ll look like geniuses if Florida goes double digits for Romney!) So I include it here, and recognize that Florida will be reddish for the next month. But Georgia is not quite red enough and we still need a new poll in South Carolina! That’s the way the polls roll.
Earlier this week two polls in Michigan split between the candidates. The new poll swings back in Obama’s favor (+5.5%).
Nevada has Obama up by a fragile +2%, but Obama has maintained the edge since the start of the year:
New Mexico loves Obama, giving him a +14% lead over Romney this poll.
Two new Ohio polls both go for Obama by +3% and +6%. Likewise, Pennsylvania seems to prefer Obama over Romney by +9%.
Finally, Ryan may have had a small effect on Wisconsin, where Obama scored a +2% in one poll and +5.5% in another. The race has certainly tightened but a lasting effect is not obvious based on these newest polls:
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,173 times and Romney wins 827 times (including the 175 ties). Obama receives (on average) 308 (-17) to Romney’s 230 (+17) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.2% (-0.6%) probability; Romney would have about a 0.8% (+0.6%) probability of winning.
Poll Analysis: The Ryan Bump!
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.8% probability of winning | 0.2% probability of winning |
| Mean of 325 electoral votes | Mean of 213 electoral votes |
It’s been ten days since Mitt Romney announced his running mate. Polling has been a little on the slow side since then, but we now have 15 new polls in nine states to throw into the mix. Most of the polls have been taken since the August 11 announcement.
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by a mean of 334 electoral votes to Romney’s mean of 204 electoral votes. An election held then was nearly 100% certain to go to Obama.
Here are the new polls:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CO | Purple Poll | 13-Aug | 14-Aug | 600 | 4.0 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| FL | Gravis Marketing | 20-Aug | 20-Aug | 728 | 3.8 | 45.1 | 48.3 | R+3.2 |
| FL | Rasmussen | 15-Aug | 15-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| FL | Purple Poll | 13-Aug | 14-Aug | 600 | 4.0 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| MI | Baydoun | 16-Aug | 16-Aug | 1733 | 2.3 | 43.9 | 47.7 | R+3.8 |
| MI | Mitchell | 13-Aug | 13-Aug | 1079 | 3.0 | 49 | 44 | O+5 |
| MO | Chilenski Strategies | 08-Aug | 08-Aug | 663 | 3.8 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| NY | Siena | 14-Aug | 19-Aug | 671 | 3.8 | 62 | 33 | O+29 |
| OH | Purple Poll | 13-Aug | 14-Aug | 600 | 4.0 | 44 | 46 | R+2 |
| OK | SoonerPoll | 26-Jul | 14-Aug | 495 | — | 29 | 58 | R+29 |
| VA | PPP | 16-Aug | 19-Aug | 855 | 3.4 | 50 | 45 | O+5 |
| VA | Purple Poll | 13-Aug | 14-Aug | 600 | 4.0 | 45 | 48 | R+3 |
| WI | PPP | 16-Aug | 19-Aug | 1308 | 2.7 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| WI | Rasmussen | 15-Aug | 15-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| WI | CNN/Opinion Research | 13-Aug | 14-Aug | 920 | 3.0 | 49 | 45 | O+4 |
Colorado gives Obama a +3% lead, and a winning streak of three August polls.
Romney takes all three Florida polls, matching Obama’s streak of three from the previous round. Overall, the past month of polls favor Obama with a 68% probability of winning the state. Of course, the pre-Ryan polls likely overestimate Obama’s chances.
Michigan puts Romney over Obama by a delicate +3.8% in one poll and Obama over Romney by 5% in another. The six current polls suggest Obama would win with a 90% probability right now.
The Missouri poll is pre-Ryan, and shows Romney with a slender +1% lead. In fact, a newer SurveyUSA poll that I mentioned in the previous analysis had Romney leading by slightly more (+1.9%).
No sign of a Ryan bump in New York, where Obama leads by +29%
We only have one new Ohio poll and that goes to Romney by +2%. The six current Ohio polls, taken together, give Obama a 98% probability of winning an election held now.
Oklahoma gives Obama a little bump. Romney’s +29% in the current poll was a +35% in May, when the last Sooner Poll was taken.
In Virginia, Obama leads Romney by +5% in one poll and Romney leads Obama by +3% in another. Obama leads in four of the five current polls and would be expected to win now with a 91% probability.
Will Ryan convince Wisconsin voters to support Romny? Three polls address this: Romney is up by a slim +1% in two polls and Obama is up by 4% in the third. Overall, Obama still wins the state by 97%.
A Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections finds Obama winning 99,771 times and Romney winning 229 times (including the 16 ties). Obama receives (on average) 325 (-9) to Romney’s 213 (+9) electoral votes. The results suggests that Obama would win and election held now with a 99.8% (-0.2%) probability and Romney would win with a 0.2% probability.
Empirically, the selection of a running mate tens to strengthen a candidate’s chances. Usually the bump are transient—that is, VP selection results in a temporary “bounce.” Here what we see is a small bump up some ten days after the announcement.
Since the analysis also includes numerous polls taken prior to the Ryan selection, we should expect Romney’s prospects to improve as the pre-Ryan polls “age out” of the analysis. Whether the bump persists or becomes a bounce is still unclear.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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