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Gaffes and viruses

by Darryl — Friday, 8/24/12, 6:32 pm

On Tuesday I mentioned that progressive comedian Dean Obeidallah is coming to Seattle. Dean is not only a comedian, but he is a frequent commentator on those talking head shows.

Well, today he has a CNN Opinion piece that looks at political gaffes, rape and other fun topics:

Politicians make gaffes almost daily. Some they can overcome. Some are fodder for late-night comedians. Some are deadly to their campaigns. Republican congressman Todd Akin’s recent gaffe was so toxic, he may not only have killed his campaign, he may be the political equivalent of a zombie who also infects the Romney/Ryan ticket with his deadly virus.

Read the whole thing here.

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Poll Analysis: More Ryan bump

by Darryl — Thursday, 8/23/12, 1:42 pm


Obama Romney
99.2% probability of winning 0.8% probability of winning
Mean of 308 electoral votes Mean of 230 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a mean of 325 to 213 electoral votes. In an election held then, we would have expected Obama to win with a 99.8% and Romney with a 0.2% probability.

In the last two days there have been a plethora of polls released—16 covering 13 states. Here’s what I’ve found:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CT Rasmussen 21-Aug 21-Aug 500 4.5 51 43 O+8
FL Quinnipiac 15-Aug 21-Aug 1241 3.0 49 46 O+3
FL Foster McCollum White 17-Aug 17-Aug 1503 2.5 39.1 53.3 R+14.3
GA 20/20 Insight 15-Aug 18-Aug 1158 2.9 44 47 R+3
MA PPP 16-Aug 19-Aug 1115 2.9 55 39 O+16
MI Glengariff Group 18-Aug 20-Aug 600 4.0 47.5 42.0 O+5.5
MO PPP 20-Aug 20-Aug 500 4.4 42 52 R+10
MT Rasmussen 20-Aug 20-Aug 500 4.5 38 55 R+17
NV SurveyUSA 16-Aug 21-Aug 869 3.4 47 45 O+2
NM Rasmussen 21-Aug 21-Aug 500 4.5 52 38 O+14
OH Ohio Poll 16-Aug 21-Aug 847 3.4 49 46 O+3
OH Quinnipiac 15-Aug 21-Aug 1253 3.0 50 44 O+6
PA Muhlenberg 20-Aug 22-Aug 422 5.0 49 40 O+9
VT Castleton Poll 11-Aug 21-Aug 477 — 62 25 O+37
WI Quinnipiac 15-Aug 21-Aug 1190 3.0 49 47 O+2
WI Marquette 16-Aug 19-Aug 576 4.2 49.8 44.3 O+5.5

The unsurprising Obama polls are from Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut. Likewise, Romney makes a strong showing in Montana and Missouri.

Romney makes a surprisingly weak +3% showing in Georgia, where he has been typically been doing high single digit or double digit leads.

There is a big surprise in Florida. A Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a +3% edge over Romney. That’s not the surprise. A second poll by Foster McCollum White has Romney up by an amazing (unbelievable?) +14%. This poll requires some discussion.

This poll has triggered a lot of chatter among poll collectors. Is it real? Is it honest? Is it an “outlier.” One of the thing I noticed is that the raw tallies in the poll add up to more than 100%—102.13%, to be exact!

I went to the source; I had a chat with the firm’s pollster Eric Foster. Eric was friendly and most helpful. The poll is not sponsored by anyone. Rather, they firm did the poll on their own, as a way to get their feet wet in Florida (so to speak). It is an independent poll. I asked about the percentages summing to greater than 100%, he suggested this is a result of their weighting. I proposed renormalizing the numbers to proportionately reduce them to 100%, and he agreed this was a good strategy.

We then had a discussion about their weighting method. They went to each county to get voter turn-out information by age group and race/ethnicity and used that to weigh the poll (some of the details were lost in our lousy cell phone to cell phone connection). He stands by the numbers.

In other words, a polling firm that is new to Florida used an elaborate and unorthodox turnout model to weight the poll, and ended up with some kind of error that resulted in percentages totaling greater than 100%. I cannot say that I am convinced that what they have done was done correctly. Even so, it meets my poll criteria and it could be correct. (They’ll look like geniuses if Florida goes double digits for Romney!) So I include it here, and recognize that Florida will be reddish for the next month. But Georgia is not quite red enough and we still need a new poll in South Carolina! That’s the way the polls roll.

Earlier this week two polls in Michigan split between the candidates. The new poll swings back in Obama’s favor (+5.5%).

Nevada has Obama up by a fragile +2%, but Obama has maintained the edge since the start of the year:

ObamaRomney23Jul12-23Aug12Nevada

New Mexico loves Obama, giving him a +14% lead over Romney this poll.

Two new Ohio polls both go for Obama by +3% and +6%. Likewise, Pennsylvania seems to prefer Obama over Romney by +9%.

Finally, Ryan may have had a small effect on Wisconsin, where Obama scored a +2% in one poll and +5.5% in another. The race has certainly tightened but a lasting effect is not obvious based on these newest polls:
ObamaRomney23Jul12-23Aug12Wisconsin

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,173 times and Romney wins 827 times (including the 175 ties). Obama receives (on average) 308 (-17) to Romney’s 230 (+17) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.2% (-0.6%) probability; Romney would have about a 0.8% (+0.6%) probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: The Ryan Bump!

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/21/12, 4:32 pm


Obama Romney
99.8% probability of winning 0.2% probability of winning
Mean of 325 electoral votes Mean of 213 electoral votes

It’s been ten days since Mitt Romney announced his running mate. Polling has been a little on the slow side since then, but we now have 15 new polls in nine states to throw into the mix. Most of the polls have been taken since the August 11 announcement.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by a mean of 334 electoral votes to Romney’s mean of 204 electoral votes. An election held then was nearly 100% certain to go to Obama.

Here are the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Purple Poll 13-Aug 14-Aug 600 4.0 49 46 O+3
FL Gravis Marketing 20-Aug 20-Aug 728 3.8 45.1 48.3 R+3.2
FL Rasmussen 15-Aug 15-Aug 500 4.5 43 45 R+2
FL Purple Poll 13-Aug 14-Aug 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
MI Baydoun 16-Aug 16-Aug 1733 2.3 43.9 47.7 R+3.8
MI Mitchell 13-Aug 13-Aug 1079 3.0 49 44 O+5
MO Chilenski Strategies 08-Aug 08-Aug 663 3.8 47 48 R+1
NY Siena 14-Aug 19-Aug 671 3.8 62 33 O+29
OH Purple Poll 13-Aug 14-Aug 600 4.0 44 46 R+2
OK SoonerPoll 26-Jul 14-Aug 495 — 29 58 R+29
VA PPP 16-Aug 19-Aug 855 3.4 50 45 O+5
VA Purple Poll 13-Aug 14-Aug 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
WI PPP 16-Aug 19-Aug 1308 2.7 47 48 R+1
WI Rasmussen 15-Aug 15-Aug 500 4.5 47 48 R+1
WI CNN/Opinion Research 13-Aug 14-Aug 920 3.0 49 45 O+4

Colorado gives Obama a +3% lead, and a winning streak of three August polls.

Romney takes all three Florida polls, matching Obama’s streak of three from the previous round. Overall, the past month of polls favor Obama with a 68% probability of winning the state. Of course, the pre-Ryan polls likely overestimate Obama’s chances.

Michigan puts Romney over Obama by a delicate +3.8% in one poll and Obama over Romney by 5% in another. The six current polls suggest Obama would win with a 90% probability right now.

The Missouri poll is pre-Ryan, and shows Romney with a slender +1% lead. In fact, a newer SurveyUSA poll that I mentioned in the previous analysis had Romney leading by slightly more (+1.9%).

No sign of a Ryan bump in New York, where Obama leads by +29%

We only have one new Ohio poll and that goes to Romney by +2%. The six current Ohio polls, taken together, give Obama a 98% probability of winning an election held now.

Oklahoma gives Obama a little bump. Romney’s +29% in the current poll was a +35% in May, when the last Sooner Poll was taken.

In Virginia, Obama leads Romney by +5% in one poll and Romney leads Obama by +3% in another. Obama leads in four of the five current polls and would be expected to win now with a 91% probability.

Will Ryan convince Wisconsin voters to support Romny? Three polls address this: Romney is up by a slim +1% in two polls and Obama is up by 4% in the third. Overall, Obama still wins the state by 97%.

A Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections finds Obama winning 99,771 times and Romney winning 229 times (including the 16 ties). Obama receives (on average) 325 (-9) to Romney’s 213 (+9) electoral votes. The results suggests that Obama would win and election held now with a 99.8% (-0.2%) probability and Romney would win with a 0.2% probability.

Empirically, the selection of a running mate tens to strengthen a candidate’s chances. Usually the bump are transient—that is, VP selection results in a temporary “bounce.” Here what we see is a small bump up some ten days after the announcement.

Since the analysis also includes numerous polls taken prior to the Ryan selection, we should expect Romney’s prospects to improve as the pre-Ryan polls “age out” of the analysis. Whether the bump persists or becomes a bounce is still unclear.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/21/12, 3:20 pm

DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Special Event: On Sunday, Sept 9th, Comedian Dean Obeidallah will bring his progressive political stand up show to Seattle. Here’s the information:

Dean Obeidallah for Vice President Comedy Tour in Seattle on Sunday, September 9

A night of stand up comedy featuring award winning comedian Dean Obeidallah. 

The San Francisco Weekly wrote: “Dean Obeidallah is a gruff-voiced, shoot-from-the-hip New Yorker…fresh and clever.”

The Washington Post called Dean: “an angsty Arab Chris Rock.”  

Dean Obeidallah has appeared on numerous US and international TV shows including Comedy Central’s “Axis of Evil” special, ABC’s “The View,” “Comics Unleashed,” NBC’s “Rock Center,” MSNBC’s “Up with Chris Hayes,” Current TV’s “The Young Turks,” and can be seen weekly on CNN offering comedic commentary on political and topical issues. He also writes weekly opinion articles for CNN.com.

He is co-director/co-star of the soon to be released documentary “The Muslims Are Coming!” which also features The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, comedians Lewis Black, David Cross, Maz Jobrani, Janeane Garofalo, Colin Quinn and more. Official Trailer is here.

Special guests for the show:

Khaled the Comic – Based in Chicago, Khaled has performed at comedy clubs all over the US and Canada. He was featured in the Best of the festival show in the 2011 NY Arab-American Comedy Festival.

Melissa Shoshahi – One of the top Iranian-American comedians in the country. Melissa has performed in venues across the US bringing her witty personality to the stage and knows no limits when it comes to comedy-discussing thoughts on her perspective on life to her unique upbringing into society. Her edgy comedy can be best described as ‘beautiful, so beautiful’ by her mother. 

Sunday, September 9, 2012 at 8:00PM

SCCC Broadway Performance Hall
1625 Broadway
Seattle, WA 98122
United States

Tickets: $25
Student tickets $15 at the door with valid student ID

For tickets please visit: Brown Paper Tickets or call 800-838-3006

Here is Dean in his Comedy Central “Axis of Evil” Comedy special:




Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter meets tonight, the Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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I coulda told you that!

by Darryl — Monday, 8/20/12, 9:37 pm

Money Magazine came out with its list of America’s [100] best small cities.

Number five on the list: My home town of Redmond, WA. Well deserved, if I do say so. Here’s a KOMO-TV report on it.

The next best Washington small city on the list is Bellevue at #40.

The snapshot for Bellevue mentions, “Traffic into Seattle is a perpetual snarl,” but that “a light-rail line that will connect Bellevue and Seattle is in the works.”

Huh…imagine that. The light rail from Seattle to Bellevue isn’t even built yet. Just having it planned is adding value to Bellevue.

Suck on that, Rob McKenna!

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Paul Ryan: The champion of Bush’s stimulus package

by Darryl — Sunday, 8/19/12, 1:30 pm

There is a lore about Rep. Paul Ryan that goes like this: whether you agree with him or not, he is a principled, thoughtful, fiscal wonk. So if you do disagree with him, you have to at least respect him for his deeply held convictions. He is a True Believer.

It must follow, then, that when Ryan criticizes Obama over the stimulus spending that was used to turn around the catastrophic economic collapse that occurred during the end of the George W. Bush administration, it’s because he studied Keynesian economics in college—and rejected it. It must follow that the young economics major was exposed to many economic theories and philosophies, including those of Ludwig von Mises, Milton Friedman, and (*snicker*) Ayn Rand. After much contemplation and fiscal navel gazing, our young hero internalized a passionate distaste for deficit spending, Keynesian stimulus, and “big government” solutions to unemployment.

Oh, sure…we saw a few cracks in the Ryan edifice this past week with the revelations that he actively sought millions in stimulus funding on behalf of his constituents. But that was a constituent services mistake that “should have been handled differently.” Because he’s a busy guy, and that’s just so not Paul Ryan.

The lore is entirely bullshit. Chris Hayes uncovers some video of Rep. Paul Ryan in 2002…when George W. Bush was asking Congress for a stimulus package:

Paul Ryan’s philosophy on stimulus spending is entirely this: If a Democratic President asks, I am vehemently against it. If a Republican President asks, I am passionately for it.

This is pretty much the same with all of the Congressional Republicans who voted in favor of unfunded wars, Bush’s deficit stimulus spending during a mild recession, not to mention record-breaking deficit spending during times of economic stability. These hypocrits, under Obama, turned around and squealed like stuck pigs and writhed in fiscal agony at the thought of deficit spending to avert economic calamity.

Paul Ryan is a fraud. He’s a hypocrite. He is an ordinary, lying Republican politician. He is a political opportunist.

His “principles” amount to gaining power for his political party—even if it means harming America.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 8/17/12, 11:58 pm

Stop fighting and Get Cash for Rights.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Nebraska edition:

Kimmel’s week in unnecessary censorship.

Ryan—Romney 2012:

  • Ann Telnaes: Romney dances around Ryan budget.
  • Young Turks: Tom Morello rips Paul Ryan
  • Maddow: The Ryan pick…and the first week.
  • The same.
  • Kimmel: Mitt Romney’s new positive ad:
  • Stephen on Ryan/Romney.
  • Jenn: Ryan catches a bad case of the flip-flops.
  • Stephanie Miller: Tom Morello raging against the machine that is Rep. Paul Ryan.
  • Maddow: Ryan Medicare unpopularity trickles down…to Congressional races.
  • Sam Seder: Romney rejects Obama’s “tax amnesty” offer.
  • SlateTV: No truce in the Romney Tax wars.
  • Young Turks: Paul Ryan’s pathetic FAUX debut
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: A VP for America?
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: The hypocrisy of Paul Ryan.
  • Ed: Obama wise-crack about Seamus
  • Axelrod on Mitt non-disclosure.
  • Maddow: Iraq war excluded from campaign as Romney hires Bush Iraq spokesman.
  • Kimmel: Romney outsources Sesame Street.
  • Ed: The great Romney-Ryan $700 billion lie
  • Mark Fiore: Mitt Romney finds his hero in “Deficit Hawk Man”.
  • Sam Seder: Why Paul Ryan is a gift to progressives.
  • Jon: On Paul Ryan.
  • Ann Telnaes: Paul Ryan displays his archery skills.
  • Maddow: Still talking about tax returns.
  • Maddow: Even STILL talking about tax returns.
  • Ed: Who is the bigger liar, Romney or Ryan (via Crooks and Liars)?

Sam Seder: Sen. Rand Paul thinks, “Obama Arming Weathermen!”

Lawrence O’Donnell: Limbaugh attacks debate moderators as ‘far left-wing’ liberals (via Crooks and Liars).

Hooligans!

  • Young Turks: Pussy Riot sentenced.
  • Guilty of “Hooliganism”: Pussy Riot.

Sam Seder: Next on the Republican agenda? Taking school lunches from poor kids.

White House: West Wing Week.

G.O.P. Voter Suppression:

  • Jon: The 2012 exciting new voter suppression efforts.
  • Pap and Ed: Right wing courts are sending America back to the dark ages
  • Maher: New Rules on Republican voter suppression (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Sam Seder: PA voter suppression scheme goes forward.
  • Pap: Republican judicial hacks help suppress voters

Stephanie Cutter: Medicare Whiteboard:

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, New Mexico edition.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Quote of the Day

by Darryl — Friday, 8/17/12, 7:09 pm

Via Rolling Stone:

Don’t mistake me, I clearly see that Ryan has a whole lotta “rage” in him: A rage against women, a rage against immigrants, a rage against workers, a rage against gays, a rage against the poor, a rage against the environment. Basically the only thing he’s not raging against is the privileged elite he’s groveling in front of for campaign contributions.

— Tom Morello, songwriter, activist, guitarist for Rage Against the Machine

(h/t Joel Connelly.)

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Libertarians sue to keep Mitt Romney off Washington ballot

by Darryl — Thursday, 8/16/12, 5:18 pm

The Libertarian Party of Washington State is suing to keep Mitt Romney off the ballot.

Their argument may be familiar to you…I wrote about it recently. By law, the Washington State Republican Party is a minor party and it hasn’t met the signature gathering requirements of a minor party for the fall Presidential election.

You can read the Libertarian’s complaint here. But let me briefly recap the argument.

In 2010, the WSRP didn’t nominate, or even endorse, anyone in the only statewide election. The reason, as I mentioned earlier, was that the Teabaggers were going to raise holy hell if Dino Rossi (who entered the race very late) got the nomination over uber-teabagger Clint Diddier for the U.S. Senate race.

Dino Rossi won a spot on the general election ballot by placing second in the primary. But, prior legal precedent has firmly established that our top-two primary is a “‘winnowing’ election designed to send only two candidates on to the general election without regard to political party nomination or affiliation,” rather than a nominating election.

So the Republicans failed to have a party nominee receive at least 5% of the vote in a 2010 statewide election as per RCW 29A.04.086:

“Major political party” means a political party of which at least one nominee for president, vice president, United States senator, or a statewide office received at least five percent of the total vote cast at the last preceding state general election in an even-numbered year.

They also failed to file the 1,000 signatures this year as is required for a minor party by RCW 29A.20.111 et seq.

Thus the Libertarians point out in their complaint:

Accordingly, the Washington State Republican Party is not entitled under the R.C.W. to have its nominee’s name printed on the November general election ballot, although its candidate (presumably Mr. Romney) is entitled to run as a write-in candidate.

In other words, the Libertarians (who are currently a minor party) want fair and equal treatment with the Republicans who, evidence suggests, is now a minor party.

And they have a point! It is how the law is written. And if the law is followed as written, there should be no Republican presidential ticket on our ballots this fall.

Here’s the thing. The relevant RCW actually predate the top-two primary. And, from one perspective, the major/minor party status law doesn’t quite jibe with a top-two primary system. In fact, in 2009, the SOS office pushed legislation that would have changed the major/minor party part of the law to better reflect a top-two primary. Alas, the bill (SB 5681) failed.

After my last post on this topic, I emailed the Secretary of State office to ask for their take on this issue. Dave Ammons respond with a helpful summary of the SOS position:

The Legislature has not repealed the old RCWs that were put in place for the old pick-a-party primary system, so many of the old definitions are still on the books. All three levels of federal courts (District Court, Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, and U.S. Supreme Court) have commented at some point in the 8 year litigation over the Top Two Primary system that Initiative 872 impliedly repealed the old party nomination procedures for the pick-a-party primary. The upshot is that we have adapted many procedures for the Top Two Primary in WAC.

WAC 434-208-130 define major and minor political parties. The relevant paragraphs of the WAC state:

(1) For purposes of RCW 29A.04.086, “major political party” means a political party whose nominees for president and vice-president received at least five percent of the total votes cast for that office at the last preceding presidential election. A political party that qualifies as a major political party retains such status until the next presidential election at which the presidential and vice-presidential nominees of that party do not receive at least five percent of the votes cast.

In other words, the SOS office is relying on a WAC that changes the RCW, under the argument that the RCW’s major/minor party definitions were implicitly “repealed” when the pick-a-party procedures were replaced for the top-two primary.

The argument might make sense, except for two things. First, the major/minor party definitions as they exist under RCW are a little awkward to deal with, but they are certainly not incompatible with a system that primarily has top two primaries (except for presidential elections). Therefore, an argument can (and will!) be made that the definitions were not implicitly repealed as suggested by the SOS office. And you cannot use the WAC to “override” the RCW.

The second point is that the legislature actually considered the issue in SB 5681. They had a chance to change the law to dovetail with the definitions in the WAC. And they declined to do so!

It is a fascinating problem! That said, I don’t relish the idea of Mitt Romney being kept off the ballot.

What I enjoy about this predicament is just how fucked up the Teabaggers have made things for the WSRP. In almost any other year, the Republicans would have had the clone-like unity to rally behind the “chosen” candidate. They would have proudly nominated him and, knowingly or not, maintained their legal eligibility as a major party under all definitions. But not in 2010.

This is why I always keep a good stock of popcorn in my pantry….

Update (11:45 pm): I modified the post to remove an extraneous quote that was accidentally left in the original. I clarified the language in a couple of spots, too.

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Poll Analysis: Obama would certainly win an election today

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/14/12, 5:53 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 334 electoral votes Mean of 204 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney with 336 to 202 Electoral votes, and a near 100% probability of winning an election held now.

The past week has produced twelve new polls (including our first poll in D.C.) to weigh in on the contest:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1463 — 45 50 R+5
DC Heart+Mind Strategies 26-Jul 29-Jul 100 — 83 11 O+72
IA Rasmussen 08-Aug 08-Aug 500 4.5 44 46 R+2
MO SurveyUSA 09-Aug 12-Aug 585 4.1 43.6 45.5 R+1.9
NH PPP 09-Aug 12-Aug 1055 3.0 51 45 O+6
NH U NH 01-Aug 12-Aug 555 4.1 49 46 O+3
OH Rasmussen 13-Aug 13-Aug 500 4.5 45 45 tie
OH PPP 09-Aug 12-Aug 961 3.2 48 45 O+3
VA Rasmussen 07-Aug 07-Aug 500 4.5 48 46 O+2
VA Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1412 — 49 45 O+4
WI Marquette 02-Aug 05-Aug 1428 — 50.0 44.7 O+5.4
WI Quinnipiac 31-Jul 06-Aug 1412 — 51 45 O+6

(Note: This section was updated because I described the wrong poll earlier.) The new Colorado poll has Romney with a +5% lead over Obama. As it happens, this is the oldest of the three current polls in Colorado. Together they give Romney a 64% to 36% probability of taking the state in a hypothetical election held now:

ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Colorado

Our first poll for Washington D.C. is pathetically small at 100 respondents (it is reported as a sub-sample of a larger poll of the region). But the poll is clear…Obama is up big-time in our Nation’s Capitol.

The new Rasmussen Iowa poll offers Romney a +2% edge over Obama. As the only current poll, the analysis finds Romney taking the state with a 63% probability today. The polling suggests that the race has tightened up, so that a Romney lead is possible:

ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Iowa

The Survey USA Missouri poll has Romney leading Obama by +1.9%. This makes 6 polls in a row with Romney leading in the state, although the other five polls had Romney up by +6% or more.

Two New Hampshire polls give Obama the lead: +6% in one and +3% in the other. Obama has now led in the past 8 polls in the state, going back three months.

Two new polls in Ohio, and one has the race all tied up at 45%, and the other poll goes for Obama by +3%. Romney has not led in the state in nine consecutive polls going back to early June. The polling history suggests that Obama’s lead is slight, but real: ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Ohio

A pair of Virginia polls goes to Obama: +2% in the most recent and +4% in the other. Romney has not led in any of the seven Virginia polls taken in July and August. Like Ohio, the Virginia polling data suggest Obama’s lead is slight, but real: ObamaRomney14Jul12-14Aug12Virginia

A pair of Wisconsin polls give Obama +5.4% and +6% leads over Romney. Again, we find Romney has not led in any of the seven polls taken in July and August.

With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections finds Obama wins every time. Obama receives (on average) 334 (-2) to Romney’s 204 (+2) electoral votes. Obama slipped very slightly in average electoral votes. Even so, if the election was held today, Obama would almost certainly win.

Of course, a lot can happen in the 90 days until the election….

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/14/12, 4:00 pm

DLBottlePolitics is a hot topic, even during these dog days of summer. So, please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.








Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet. The new Longview chapter holds their inaugural meeting at 6:00pm Wednesday at the Monticello Hotel. The new South Seattle chapter holds their inaugural meeting on Wednesday, 8:00pm at Lottie’s Lounge, 4900 Rainier Avenue. The Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday. Finally, next Monday, the Yakima and Olympia chapters of DL meet.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 8/10/12, 11:58 pm

Stephen: Gingrich is a baby-eating werewolf (via Crooks and Liars).

Roy Zimmerman: Iowa Edition of Vote Republican.

Mark Fiore: Dark Matters.

Sam Seder and Glenn Greenwald: The normalization of extremism.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Colorado edition:

SlateTV: Missouri “Right to Pray” amendment lets kids opt out of evolution .

Attack!!!!!

  • SlateTV: The gloves are off!
  • Young Turks: Romney attacks Obama with welfare ad.
  • Bill Press: DNC says Romney Campaign is ‘hitting below the belt’
  • Maddow: Welfare ad “dog-whistle” racism from Mitt Romney.
  • Young Turks: ‘Son Of Boss’ Ad
  • Newsy: Rep. Allen West fights ad.
  • Sam Seder: Tasteless fear-mongering anti-Obama ad asks America “Are we safer?”
  • Jon on Mitt’s flailing ‘Romneycare’ defense (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Newsy: Obama ad questions whether Obama has paid income tax.
  • Buzz60: New Romney ad aims at Catholic swing state voters.
  • Maddow: The SuperPAC political week
  • Jon: mocks conservative freakout over ‘Priorities USA Action’ ad.
  • Young Turks: Alan West punches woman in face in new ad.

Sam Seder: Mississippi church refuses a Black couple’s wedding.

Pap: Welcome to the era of Super PACs.

Roy Zimmerman: Montana Edition of Vote Republican.

NPR: Special Disaster Edition of It’s All Politics

Ann Telnaes: SuperPACs and their handlers put on a silly show.

Willard:

  • Newsy: Rep. Ryan will be named Romney Running mate on Saturday Morning.
  • SlateTV: Obama’s new nickname for his opponent.
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, New York edition.
  • Bill Press: Mitt’s tax problem.
  • Ed and Pap: Harry Reid is right about Mitt’s taxes
  • The Spin Room: Romney’s running mate.
  • Jenn with UW Prof. Matt Barreto: Can Romney make a dent in the Latino vote?
  • Stephanie and Markos: Was Jon Huntsman Sr. Sen. Reid’s source?
  • Young Turks: How you can stop paying so much in taxes—just like Mitt Romney
  • Newsy: Can Romney recover from a very bad month?
  • SlateTV: Some high profile endorsements for Romeny.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt Romney doesn’t know anything about dressage? YEAH, RIGHT!
  • Jenn with Democratic strategist Kiki McLean: Mitt’s running mate.

ONN: Onion Week in Review.

SlateTV: Will Ted Cruz’s prime time GOP convention speaking spot appease the Tea Party?

Stephen looks back on Obama’s war on pizza.

White House: West Wing Week.

This Week in GOP Voter Suppression:

  • Pap: The Pennsylvania effort to suppress the vote.
  • Maddow: New ID laws.
  • Jon on GOP exaggerated voter fraud claims (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Sam Seder: PA is the new FL in voter suppression.
  • Sharpton: Republicans ramp up voter suppression effort.
  • Sen. Scott Brown is disturbed by push to register welfare recipients to vote (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Rep. Allen West defends disenfranchising Ohio voters (via Crooks and Liars).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Mitt’s VeePee

by Darryl — Friday, 8/10/12, 11:56 am

For months now, there has been low-level speculation about Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA-5) being selected to be Mitt Romey’s VP (e.g. here).

It makes sense in that it doesn’t defy the laws of physics or anything (well…not that the laws of physics would hold back Republicans from attempting something). Rep. McMorris Rogers is over 35. She is the highest ranking Republican woman in the House. It’s not like she only served 1/2 a term as Governor in some low-population state, or anything. And, McMorris Rodgers did have one of the earliest Republican VP Nominee Intrade pages.

Alas, these days, she’s a Republican VP Nominee penny stock.

Still…even if it’s a long shot, I predict Mittens will pick Cathy for VP. What do I have to lose? If he picks her, I’ll look like a genius. And if not, my prediction will be lost in a sea of unsuccessful VP predictions from the chattering classes.

These days political pundit seem all hyped-up over Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI-1). I guess it makes sense….VPRyan

For Republicans, having an actor in the White House is political comfort food.

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Open thread 8/10

by Darryl — Friday, 8/10/12, 10:21 am

As if we couldn’t tell. After Obama was elected, what was the Senate G.O.P. plan for governance? Make a public showing of wanting to work with Obama, but then oppose everything.

Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) came to Bellevue yesterday to tell Republicans he’ll blame them when McKenna loses.

The Borowitz Report interviews Mitt Romney.

Complaint filed with PDC alleging that McKenna campaign broke disclosure laws.

Guess who else Romney murdered!

Puget Sound area traffic this weekend…is going to SUCK.

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Open thread 8/9

by Darryl — Thursday, 8/9/12, 10:09 am

MoJo: Tea Party shoots itself in to foot again.

Connelly: The state Republican Party predicted, early this year, that it would “flip” enough Democratic-held seats to gain a majority in the 49-member Washington State Senate. The issue is now very much in doubt.

Tax experts assess how likely it is that Romney paid no taxes for a decade.

Eli Sanders attempts to interview Bruce Danielson.

Charges brought in an actual case of election fraud. Wanna guess which party?

Markos: We are winning! (Of course, HA readers have known this all along.)

Mini-essay. Which of our local papers actually wield some influence among the electorate? The Stranger endorses a third-party candidate against Frank Chopp…as a write-in, and she likely comes in second place. How did the Seattle Times do? Not so well.

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