by Darryl, 09/12/2012, 2:53 PM

Yesterday a new Survey USA poll (for KING 5) was released in the Washington state gubernatorial race. The poll of 524 likely voters (4.4 MOE), based on a mixed land line and cell phone sample, was taken from the 7th to the 9th of this month.

The poll shows Inslee leading McKenna by 49% to 44%.

A Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections based on this polling finds that, if the election was today, Inslee would have an 80% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of simulated outcomes:

SurveyUSA-Sep

This is pretty good news for Jay Inslee and suggests that his campaign has “turned it around.” McKenna led Inslee for most of the polling before July, but Inslee has now led in three consecutive polls:

GenericCongress12Aug12-12Sep12Washington

The previous poll, taken last month by Survey USA, had Inslee up by +3% points, and a 70% probability of winning then. We’ve had a primary since then. It is always risky to read too much into our top two primary results simply because the voting populations are different. Even so, the gubernatorial primary was practically a head-to-head election between McKenna and Inslee. Inslee received a +4% larger share of the votes than McKenna got.

There is one thing that stands out in the crosstabs. To the question, “Which candidate do you think is more likeable personally?” Inslee bests McKenna by 43% to 30%.

This race has been considered one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country. Maybe not so much anymore.

There are three other head-to-head races in the poll:

  • Senate race: Cantwell (D) leads Baumgartner (R), 54% to 38%.
  • Attorney General race: Fergusson (D) leads Dunn (R), 42% to 33%.
  • Presidential race: Obama (D) leads Romney (R), 54% to 38%.

And, finally, there were a few other ballot measures polled as well:

  • The referendum upholding the new gay marriage law looks passable at 56% in favor to 38% against.
  • The initiative for charter schools looks like a go at 52% for and 26% against.
  • Eyman’s initiative that imposes a (likely) unconstitutional 2/3s majority for tax increases looks like a pass at 58% for to 21% against.
  • The pot initiative looks like a go at 57% in favor and 34% against.

34 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna 49% to 44%”

1. YLB spews:

Good news.. Certain trolls will be dismayed..

Open your wallets trolls! LOL!

2. Steve spews:

“This is pretty good news for Jay Inslee and suggests that his campaign has “turned it around.””

Perhaps. What’s not revealed in the crosstabs is whether or not Bob’s and the Republican party’s worst nightmare is coming true, that the horrible Romney disaster is going down ballot on them.

3. MikeBoyScout spews:

Of course Rmoney helps to drag Bobby Mac down. Not like he needs any help in that area. Cripes, Bobby Mac is the Mitt Rmoney of WA.

I said it like a week ago. Stick a fork in McKenna, he’s done. All that’s left for McKenna to do is to hire the fat lady who will sing for him. It’s over.

4. Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

@3
After the election, maybe Bobby Mac can go to work for Tim Eyman.

5. YLB spews:

4 – Heh. “Legal counsel” for the “Lieman Group”, Michael Duncemire, treasurer…

6. proud leftist spews:

I sure hope Robby returns to private practice after the election. Of course, he’s so used to sucking off the public teat at this point that he’ll be at a loss to figure out how to earn a living without his handlers.

7. Politically Incorrect spews:

“…sucking off the public teat…”

That, in a nutshell, is our problem: too many people dependent on government for their survival and not enough wealth-producing private enterprise out there to support them.

8. Proud To Be An Ass spews:

@7…define “wealth”. Thank you in advance for your fucking valuable wealth creating time.

9. Roger Rabbit spews:

@7 So what happened to all that wealth-producing private enterprise, PI? When the free-market types were running things they sent it to Mexico, India, and China. Well, guess what, when American workers can’t earn they don’t spend.

10. greg spews:

Check out Nate Silver’s new numbers crunch showing Romney-Ryan is now at 8.4% chance of winning.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/12/1131130/-538-Obama-with-a-91-6-chance-of-victory-and-a-100-vote-electoral-margin-bonus-new-MI-polls

11. Roger Rabbit spews:

@10 And that’s before Romney’s flub today shows up in the polls!

12. MikeBoyScout spews:

@7 I think you mean well, but you need to get educated about “wealth”.

The most significant wealth production in the state of Washington is accomplished via the Grand Coulee Dam. We built that.

13. Liberal Scientist is a a dirty fucking hippie, and THE SPAWN OF SATAN (according to resident Bibul-thumper puddles) spews:

the Grand Coulee Dam.

Woah! You mean citizens acting together via their democratic government doing something that they couldn’t do individually. Something that has been a durable, efficient wealth generator?

Wow. We built that? We built that!

14. Proud To Be An Ass spews:

“We built that.”

Damned right. But no, people like PI believe that flipping real estate or the dufusses in “Storage Wars” create wealth.

You know what PI, people in the private sector are “dependent” on others for their survival, too. True story. You ever think of that?

15. greg spews:

@12 My Father worked at Grand Coulee Dam using a 90 pound jackhammer suspended by ropes over the cliffs. He said in the summer the only cool place in town were the brothels with sprinkler systems on the roof.

16. Serial Conservative spews:

@ 15

So, you were born with syphilitic encephalitis, then?

17. Dave spews:

SAT question:

Q: Useless rich fuck is to “job creator” as people with skills who actually work for a living are to…

A: WEALTH creators

18. Serial Conservative spews:

Without wealthy employers willing to hire them, skilled laborers would work for……..

Who?

We could play chicken/egg games all night.

19. Roger Rabbit spews:

@14 “people like PI believe that flipping real estate or the dufusses in ‘Storage Wars’ create wealth”

I made $800 in the stock market today and about $10,000 in the last week, but I didn’t create any wealth — not a friggin’ penny’s worth. I don’t quite understand why people give me money like this, but it’s apparently legal, because I haven’t been arrested yet. All I know is nothing gets made or built as a result of this. It’s utterly unproductive. It’s capitalism! I haven’t a clue why you humans worship it, but I don’t mind taking your money.

20. Roger Rabbit spews:

218 There is no chicken-egg conundrum, Cereal. Without CUSTOMERS there’s no employment for either capital or labor.

Absolutely everything that happens in the private economy begins with a CUSTOMER and it is the CUSTOMER who is most essential to the whole process.

P.S., you don’t have to be wealthy to be an employer, and plenty of employers aren’t wealthy, so get off your silly fixation that we have to pamper wealthy people or there’ll be no jobs. I myself am an owner of around 40 businesses that collectively employ over a million people. Most of the largest employers have hundreds of thousands or millions of owners, very few of whom are wealthy.

21. Roger Rabbit spews:

And when you keep beating down workers’ wages, or send their jobs abroad, they’re no longer CUSTOMERS and you no longer have a business and we no longer have an economy — a fact of life that Cheap Labor Conservatives don’t seem to get for some reason.

22. Roger Rabbit spews:

Oh, and one more thing. You know all our trolls who fix up and flip houses? Like “lostinaseaofblue” for example? Well, next time you pass by a house being remodeled or getting a new roof, slow down and check out the roofers or construction crew, they’re all Mexicans! Yep, that’s right, all these wingnut contractors who rant incessantly about immigrants employ cheap immigrant labor to boost their own profits. Does anyone wonder why all the people buying houses these days are foreigners? When was the last time you saw an American at one of those job sites? When I was a kid …

23. Ekim spews:

18. Serial Conservative spews:

Without wealthy employers willing to hire them, skilled laborers would work for……..

Who?

We could play chicken/egg games all night.

I’d give Boner Bob’s argument much more weight but his math doesn’t work. His “wealthy employers” have now had years to hire our “skilled laborers” but as yet they haven’t. And these “wealthy employers” have been setting on over 2 trillion dollars of investment capital, so it is not like they don’t have the means to do it.

So are his “wealthy employers” job creators? Eh, no. Not unless you count the jobs they have created in other countries. Like Communist China.

24. proud leftist spews:

Maxie @ 18
I’m far from wealthy, but I am an employer. I pay the employees before I pay myself. That’s what small business is about. I worry about paying the mortgage, but I make sure I make payroll. Mitt Romney never worried about such concerns. Frankly, I never detested him. Until today. His attacking Obama about Libya and Egypt truly disclosed how small and desperate a man he is. Ugh. Is he even human?

25. Drunken lying senile rabbit spews:

WTF?

Crazy lying drunk rabbit “I myself am an owner of around 40 businesses that collectively employ over a million people.” BULLSHIT!

What kind of lying bullshit are you spewing you drunken lying senile rabbit?

26. Vercingetorix spews:

@24

Proud Communist, I am not Serial Conservative.

and for the record, I am also an employer…as well as an employee!

27. Vercingetorix spews:

@25
ekum’s understanding of business is damn near embarrassing..

28. phineas j whoopee spews:

re 18: “We could play chicken/egg games all night.”

You can be fairly certain that stone-age flint-knappers did not rely upon capitalists. Labor came first.

The first capitalist would have been the person(s) who violently took control of the flint quarry and forced the knappers to work for wages.

29. Ekim spews:

26. Vercingetorix spews:

…and for the record, I am also an employer…as well as an employee!

McDonald’s franchise? Or maybe a Taco Bell/KFC?

30. Ekim spews:

27. Taco Bell/KFC spews:

@25
ekum’s understanding of business is damn near embarrassing..

Oh please expound on your magnificent wisdom. I too would like to become enlightened.

31. N in Seattle spews:

idiot @25:

Apparently, you are unaware that publicly-traded corporations are owned by their stockholders.

32. rhp6033 spews:

Quite frankly, I’m surprised that Inslee was able to make so much progress in such a short period of time. It was only a few months ago he was significantly behind McKenna in the polls, although that may be due to McKenna’s more visable name recognition (statewide) as a factor.

Of course, the more we know about McKenna, the less we like him. His attempt to play the “moderate/centrist” Republican is hard to maintain in today’s electoral climate. I noticed that he tried hard to avoid being linked to any other candidate, especially avoiding Romney/Ryan joint appearances.

I’d love to see a map of Washington showing which of the new Congressional districts are in play, and by how much. Surely, this close to an election and with re-districting having scrambled things up a bit, there is some public polling available?

33. Vercingetorix spews:

29. Ekim spews:
26. Vercingetorix spews:

…and for the record, I am also an employer…as well as an employee!

McDonald’s franchise? Or maybe a Taco Bell/KFC?

09/13/2012 AT 8:49 AM

sorry, but no.

hey, no worries though, I will pass them your resume.

34. doggril spews:

I don’t think it’s as much about Inslee turning it around as it is people’s having had a chance now to get to know McKenna.