A new poll by SurveyUSA on behalf of King 5 finds former WA-01 Congressman Jay Inslee leading state Attorney General Rob McKenna, 48% to 45% in the race to be Washington’s next governor. The poll surveyed 524 people likely to vote in the November general election (4.4 MOE), and was conducted from August 1 – 2 with calls made to landlines and cellphones.
A Monte Carlo analysis employing a million simulated elections, finds Inslee with 687,504 wins and McKenna with 301,583 wins. The analysis suggests that, in an election held now, Inslee would win with a 69.5% probability and McKenna would win with a 30.5% probability. Since Inslee’s has under a 95% probability of winning, the lead is not considered “statistically significant.”
Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulated elections:
Although crosstabs are not available yet for the gubernatorial results, SurveyUSA has released results for the presidential contest taken at the same time. The poll finds Obama leading Romney 54% to 37%. The partisan make-up was 36% Democrat, 27% Republican and 35% independent, pretty much matching the previous Elway poll (35% D, 27%R, 38% R). The composition is more Democratic-leaning than was found in the July SurveyUSA poll (33% D, 30% R, and 36% I).
This is the second consecutive poll showing Inslee with the lead. The previous poll was by Elway and showed Inslee with a 7% lead and an 87% probability winning an election held then. Days before that, a Survey USA poll found McKenna up by +1 and a 58% probability of winning an election then. The polling history shows a long term shift from a solid McKenna advantage to a weak Inslee advantage:
Eleven months ago, McKenna was clearly the front-runner in the race. Then, after two solid early February polls, a couple of later February polls showed the race tied. Since then McKenna has usually held small leads in the polls. Until the last few weeks.
Given the political demographics of Washington there’s no reason to expect any Republican will ever be elected governor again even before taking into account how deceitful, unqualified, and radical recent GOP candidates have been (i.e., this isn’t Dan Evans’ Republican Party anymore).
@1: …and even Dan Evans has gone over to the dark side.
This one will be close. It could go either way, but the Democrat will probably win. After all, this is one of the “true bluest” states in the US. People will vote their wallets, and they most likely expect freebies from a Democrat rather than a Republican. I’ll vote for somebody else other than Inslee or McKenna, probably a Libertarian or an independent. The Dems and Reps are just too corrupt and feeble-minded to vote for.
Having recently spent a week in a battleground state, I love living in Washington, a solid blue state. We don’t have to see the Crossroads GPS, and direct campaign ads on seemingly every commercial break of every station.
And it looks like the Seattle Times (What liberal media?) endorsement will slide even further into irrelevancy.
@3 “People will vote their wallets, and they most likely expect freebies from a Democrat rather than a Republican.”
You’re so full of b.s. Democrats do this country’s work. The freebies go to guys in C-suites and 3-piece suits.
@5,
Well, tell that to two young people I know personally. Both have student loans and haven’t got a pot to piss in. (They’ve both made bad choices in life, including having a kid or two out of wedlock and drug abuse. They depend on others and they’re both in their thirties. What a fine example they’re setting for the kids!) I asked them who they were going to vote for in November, and they said they were going to vote for Obama because they expected to get more out of a Dem than a Rep. They are especially interested in the Dems canceling their student loans. One of them has already gone through bankruptcy and discoverd that student loan debt doesn’t go away with the bankruptcy process. Imagine that – people actually having to pay back what they borrowed! What a concept!!
Sure, the crony capitalist bastards like JPM and GS are at the public trough gorging themselves on our money (while a small business man or woman gets to eat a shit sandwhich day in and day out), but so are millions and millions of people like the young persons I just described. I’m against corporate welfare for crony capitalist bastards, but I still don’t want a free lunch program for a bunch of losers either!
Too big to fail?? Fuck that!! How about too big to exist and feed off of the public trough?
fixed it…free of charge.
And also, asshole, Dems may work hard, but they’re are a helluva lot of other people working hard that don’t get to suck at the government sugar tit. It’s called the private sector, and THEY create the wealth in this country. The fucking govvernment is busy consuming it and re-distributing it to their friends on both sides of the political spectrum. Ever tried to start a private busines, rodent? I tried and failed, but I didn’t get a fucking kick in the ass from your precious government, whereas progressives like Jamie Dimon helped themselves to billions.
@6
a-fucking-men.
how about this: no more “free stuff” for the rich cronies or the poor lazy losers.
I like that.
@9,
Well, it’s a nice thought, but I beleive it will be difficult to enact: we have so many people on the dole, be it state assistance or bail-outs for Wall Street assholes that it will be very difficult to wean the populace off of free government-provided stuff.
without public assistance, half of the HA regulars would be homeless and hungry within 2 weeks.
thats why they are guaranteed D party voters.