Goldy

Feisty and I had a nice walk. Ran into Knute Berger at Seward Park. We both think Patty Murray will win.

Speaking of which, predictions. Nothing scientific here, and I don’t have access to any inside information, just the same polling data everybody else has plus my gut reaction that there’s just something wrong with it.

Patty Murray beats Dino Rossi by five-plus points, Dems lose WA-03, but incumbents hold on in all the other WA congressional districts. Meanwhile Dems hold control of both houses of the Washington state legislature, though R’s make a game of it with the state Senate. Initiatives 1053 and 1107 win, all others lose, but 1100 staggers around in a drunken daze for a week before we know the final outcome.

Nationally, Dems hold Senate with 52 or 53 seats, but lose control of the House, giving up about 50.

And no, I don’t see a mandate in any of this, except that folks really don’t like the economy.

Just got back from casting my ballot, and that was the view from behind the voting machine at King County Elections’ accessible voting center in Tukwila, WA. There were about a dozen people waiting to use the machines at about 11 AM, with another dozen filling out paper ballots. And remember, this is in a county that conducts elections entirely by mail. (Well, obviously, almost entirely.)

Elections workers told me that I came at good time, as things had been much busier earlier in the morning, and they expected crowds to back up again during the lunch hours. Meanwhile, mail-in ballots continue to arrive at a near-record mid-term pace.

Another 170,000 ballots arrived this morning, bringing King County’s running total up to 580,000, or roughly 54% of registered voters, with another large batch of ballots expected to arrive this afternoon. Typically, Tuesday and Wednesday are the days with the largest number of received ballots.

This leaves county elections sticking to their projected 68% turnout rate, or roughly 720,000 returned ballots, up from a 65% turnout rate and 635,753 ballots cast in 2006, the previous midterm election.

Of course, that’s just a projection, but in an year when Republicans are supposed to benefit from a huge enthusiasm gap, it is interesting to note that dark blue King County’s 68% projected turnout is actually a couple of ticks higher than the 66% rate Secretary of State Sam Reed is projecting for Washington state as a whole. Furthermore, King County elections officials tell me that they’re actually projecting 69% turnout for Seattle proper, with the less Democratic rest of the county coming in at 67%.

Huh.

Again, these are just projections. But they sure do seem at odds with the national narrative.

So here’s my schedule for Election Day, 2010.

After I finish writing this post, I plan to head on over to King County Elections’ Tukwila headquarters, check out the mood and the turnout, and then cast my vote in person, just like I always do. (Call me a hopeless romantic.) Then I plan to head home, take my dog on a long, leisurely walk, eat a little lunch, maybe take a nap, have a hot cup of tea and an even hotter shower, then head out to the Montlake Ale House for beer, election returns, and even more beer, depending on how bad (or badder) the results turn out to be. And if I’m not too depressed, I might head over to the Westin for Patty Murray’s victory party.

Somewhere in the midst of all that, I suppose I’ll do a little writing, including some pre-election predictions, return-watching live-blogging, and post election analysis. So stay tuned.

I’m almost feeling nostalgic at the news, what with the John Carlson Show being my first experience in a radio studio, but as of Monday, conservative talk is no more at KVI.

Yeah, I know, good riddance and all that. But it’s hard to think of the continuing loss of live, local programming as a good thing.

If only tomorrow’s election goes as well for the team from blue America as the World Series did.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ill0rAGcBa4&sns=em[/youtube]

I was going to push back on the PPP poll that Darryl’s already posted on, citing the DSCC poll that shows Murray up 51-44, are the Washington Poll’s Matt Baretto insisting that PPP doesn’t know Washington state from the other one. But Eli’s already done that on Slog, so you might as well read him.

No, instead I’d just like to use this as an opportunity to emphasize that people who don’t vote really, really suck.

If PPP is right, and there is a huge enthusiasm gap because, what, Obama didn’t enact change fast enough or something, well fuck you. You don’t vote, you don’t have a right to complain about the outcome. Simple as that.

So don’t be an asshole. Vote.

Yeah, that’s former Reagan budget director David Stockman despairing over his fellow Republicans’ “anti-tax religion,” and watching last night’s 60 Minutes piece on I-1098 has me despairing too. Of course, the anti-tax mantra is a religion, and a fundamentalist one at that.

And apparently, there’s no reasoning with faith.

If only our government operated as efficiently as the private sector, I guess it wouldn’t know the name of its own legislators either.

The hit piece above, mailed to 41st LD voters (click through to see the whole piece), is not only dishonest in its message (far from criticizing her, the Seattle Times actually endorsed Rep. Marcie Maxwell), but it also stupidly names the wrong state senator. Of course that’s 41st LD state Sen. Randy Gordon’s picture, yet the mailer twice names 48th LD state Sen. Rodney Tom.

Adding to the irony is that the hit piece was paid for by Americans for Prosperity, New York billionaire David Koch’s far-right, ultra-conservative, faux-think-tank front group dedicated to privatizing Social Security… because, you know, the private sector is always more efficient than government. Or something.

Yup. These are the kinda folks I want handling my retirement account.

But then that’s just par for the course in this election isn’t it? An out-of-state billionaire funneling money through a secretive front group into a legislative race for chrisakes, against a local Democrat whose name he can’t even bother to learn. That’s American democracy for ya.

Chronicles 15:13
All who would not seek the LORD, the God of Israel, were to be put to death, whether small or great, man or woman.

Discuss.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le7n3Y7dgxI&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

I’m heading to Westlake Center for the Seattle satellite rally of the Restore the Sanity/Keep Fear Alive rally, and as bit of a novelty, I plan to tweet my coverage.

So please follow me on Twitter, and discuss the rally here.

A lot of passionate, enthusiastic Democrats are manning the phones and knocking on doors this weekend, working hard to get out the vote. But if you’re volunteering for Suzan DelBene, perhaps you’ve backed the wrong candidate, that is, if what really gets you motivated about politics is a $25 gift card.

Really, Dave? Huh. So much for that enthusiasm gap.

Anyway, if you don’t need the money, you can dial against Dave, and for Delbene, at any of these locations.

According to recent polls, I-1107, which would repeal a temporary two-cent per can tax on soda pop, is likely to pass after the soft drink industry spent a record $17 million promoting the initiative. Which I’m sure means the soft drink industry is laughing at how stupid and gullible Washington voters are. Laughing all the way to the bank.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R81wF0yPvCo[/youtube]