Goldy

The Simple Majority majority is now over 11,000 votes, with about 43,000 ballots left to count, over half from King County. But you know, voters sent an anti-tax message last Tuesday, so what do I know?

First impressions count, and so the election night meme of a nascent tax revolt continues to hold sway over our political class, despite all evidence to the contrary. Or does it?

Yesterday the King County Council raised three new taxes: property taxes of 10 cents and 5.5 cents per $1000 of assessed value respectively for flood control and expanded foot ferries, and a tenth of a cent per dollar sales tax increase to fund mental health services. That’s about $90 a year in new taxes for the median county household… plus, a 25 cent hike in Metro bus fares. Meanwhile, after a contentious campaign season in which its public subsidy became a major issue, the Port of Seattle yesterday voted to increase its tax revenues by $10 million over 2007, levying 23 cents per $1000… about $92 annually on a $400,000 home.

Opponents of Prop 1 argued that we simply couldn’t afford Sound Transit’s proposed 50 mile light rail extension, and the half cent per dollar sales tax increase that would fund it at a cost of about $150 per year for a typical household. And yet just one week after voters soundly rejected the package at the polls, the council tacks another $90 a year onto our annual tax bill, without raising an eyebrow… or a public vote. Taxes equal to 60-percent of the cost of ST2 got raised just like that, with hardly any public debate. Doesn’t sound like the council fears an anti-tax climate to me. Indeed, I’d wager that Prop 1’s defeat made it easier for the council to raise taxes, as it left more of the tax base available.

So if you voted against Prop 1 thinking you were going to save yourself money, think again. Somehow, someway, you’re going to pay for RTID’s major roads projects, and without Sound Transit competing for your tax and toll dollars, probably a few more projects to boot. Tax revolt, my ass.

King County just dumped today’s results, and added to ballots counted earlier today elsewhere in the state, EHJR 4204, the Simple Majority amendment, now leads by over 5,000 votes statewide.

No doubt there may be a little seesawing over the next few days as ballots get tallied county by county, but this is first time since the polls closed that Simple Majority has been in the lead, and you’ve got to be encouraged by the trend. Late absentees apparently broke for the initiative, and it sure looks like Darryl’s prognostication is being proven true.

UPDATE:
More counties have reported, increasing 4204’s lead to 7,198. Although the ballots left to count number is always a rough estimate, nearly 60-percent of ballots remaining come from counties where 4204 is leading, while late absentees continue to trend Yes throughout the state. If trends continue, 4204 will likely exceed the roughly 7,900 2000 vote margin needed to avoid an automatic recount.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
In the comment thread RonK points out that an automatic recount occurs if the margin is under 0.5% and 2000 votes. My bad. Oh… and the latest count has it up by 6,952.

It didn’t take a genius to figure out the strategy of the anti-rail/pro-roads camp. Of course, they wanted most of the proposals in the RTID package — and more — but they knew they’d get most of it without Prop 1… eventually. So while cockeyed optimists like Josh and Erica appear buoyant at the prospect of a transit-only measure appearing on the ballot sometime this decade, “Plan B” is moving quickly apace. And yes, there always was a Plan B, as outlined in an editorial Sunday in the Seattle Times:

• Highway 520 has to be redone before it falls into the lake. While redoing it, it must be expanded to accommodate traffic to job centers in Bellevue and Redmond. Pay for it in part with tolls.
• Replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct, either with a new structure or a sensible surface option.
• Perhaps extend light rail to Northgate. The density is already there, but this may have to wait until the first light-rail line opens.
• In Snohomish County, do key interchanges to Interstate 5, expand Highway 9 and improve Highway 2. Pick only the must-dos.
• Pierce County: Do Highway 167. Make that the priority.
• Bring on congestion pricing to change motorist behavior at peak times. In other words, get the most out of roadways we already have.

Huh. Sounds pretty much like the bulk of the major projects from RTID, with the Viaduct thrown in for good measure. As for light rail, perhaps we should extend it to Northgate… you know, if we can get beyond the fiscal reality that Sound Transit lacks sufficient taxing authority to even bond the half-billion dollar a mile project from revenues in the Seattle sub-area alone.

If I were to make a proposal like this, I’d just be talking out of my ass, but the Times editorial board has always been an official organ of the Eastside political establishment, so I’m guessing it was pretty well vetted before publication. And the very next day, surprise….

Now that Puget Sound-area voters have killed the ambitious roads and transit plan outlined in Proposition 1, the state will take back responsibility for replacing the state Route 520 Bridge, Gov. Chris Gregoire said Monday.

“I’ve already asked the Department of Transportation and the Office of (Financial Management) to come up with a new financing plan,” Gregoire said. “We will split off from the Regional Transportation Improvement District, because the 520 Bridge can no longer wait. It needs to be replaced.”

Gregoire said she wants to keep her commitment to begin construction on the 520 replacement by 2012.

If you think the timing is just some lucky coincidence, I’ve got a floating bridge to sell you.

The Kemper Freemanites’ opposition to rail wasn’t just ideological, it was politically pragmatic, for with light rail extension effectively killed for the foreseeable future, that frees up additional tax and toll revenues for other items on their asphalt wish list. They might not get everything they want — the Cross-Base Freeway and the mythical I-605 will likely never see the light of the day — but they’ll get most of what they want, including “hot lanes” and congestion pricing for those who can afford it. Meanwhile, we’ll buy a few buses, append the “Rapid Transit” suffix, and tell the common folk they’re getting a good deal for their money. Sweet.

But then, what do I know? I’m just some dumb blogger, not a savvy political strategist like those polar bear clad geniuses at the Sierra Club and their fellow travelers at The Stranger.

I hate to get into the business of reporting the future — because sometimes the future proves me wrong — but the big headline nobody seems to be reporting today is that Simple Majority seems likely to pass. Darryl first pointed this out Saturday night, when it was still trailing by about 11,000 votes statewide, and by the end of the day yesterday the gap had narrowed to 2,620. EHJR 4204 is a constitutional amendment that would eliminate the 60-percent supermajority requirement for passing local school levies.

I’d previously argued that low turnout and the lack of partisan contests meant there was no discernible message coming out of Tuesday’s generally disappointing results, but the repositories of conventional wisdom argued otherwise, seeing the defeat of 4204 and Prop 1, combined with a win for Tim Eyman’s ridiculous I-960, as clear signs of an imminent tax revolt. It is in this climate of fear that Dems promise to reinstate one-percent limit on property tax revenue growth after Eyman’s unsustainable I-747 was tossed out by the Supremes. Hmm. Maybe they should have waited a few days before falling on their swords?

What little evidence there was of voter rebellion is steadily dissipating as late absentees continue to be tallied here in Western Washington… you know, where most of the state’s people actually live. Simple Majority seems on its way to passing, while I-960’s once convincing election night performance is heading toward squeaker territory. And while the controversial Roads & Transit measure was soundly defeated, Medic One, the only countywide property tax levy on the King County ballot, is passing with an astounding 83-percent of the vote. So I-960 barely passes in a low turnout election. Yeah, that’s some tax revolt.

The truth is, taxes pay for things that voters want, things like schools, Medic One, and cleaning up after windstorms. They also sometimes pay for things that voters don’t want. And unless they intend to finally do something about our state’s bizarrely regressive tax structure, I think Dems would be better off giving voters what they want, rather than pandering to a Republican minority whose sole goal is to cripple government

Tonight on “The David Goldstein Show”, 7PM to 10PM on News/Talk 710-KIRO:

7PM: Is the Democratic majority torture?
Newly confirmed US Attorney General Michael Mukasey couldn’t tell us whether water-boarding is torture, but for many of us progressives, the lack of resolve of the Democratic majority in Congress is. In what I hope will become a regular feature on the show, Daily Kos frontpage editor Kagro X joins me for the hour to discuss the Muskasey confirmation and other issues of national import.

8PM: Election recap rewind
Former state Democratic Party chair Paul Berendt and former state Republican Party chair Chris Vance join me by phone for an on-air reunion and a recap of Tuesday’s election. A Republican resurgence? A tax revolt brewing? A bad night for Dems? Or was it just a really, really, really low turnout election? Tune in and find out what the ex-chairs have to say.

9PM: Where does Sound Transit go from here?
Last night Josh and Erica seemed almost buoyant about the prospect for a transit only ballot measure in 2008 or 2009, but this morning the Seattle Times comes out with mostly roads “Plan B” I’ve always predicted. Sound Transit Director of Policy, Planning & Public Affairs, Ric Ilgenfritz joins me for the hour to talk about the failure of Prop 1, and what if any future there is for Sound Transit and light rail expansion.

Tune in tonight (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).

Tonight on “The David Goldstein Show”, 7PM to 10PM on News/Talk 710-KIRO:

7PM: The Stranger Hour election recap
What better way to recap a strange election than with Josh and Erica from The Stranger? (It’s always nice to get a fast-talking Jew on the show for a change of pace, huh?) Is light rail dead? Is the GOP reviving? Are the Democrats a bunch of spineless cowards? Tune in and find out.

8PM: Funny thing happened on the way to the studio…
I’ve lived in Seattle for 15 years now, and from the looks of this week’s election I still can’t make heads or tails of the place, so who better to explain things to me than local comedian Joe Vespaziani, who joins me in studio for the hour. Joe is a regular at local comedy clubs; you can hear him on his recently released CD, “Ribbed.”

9PM: GOP FCC MOUSE?
FCC chair Kevin Martin gave only five days notice in announcing last night’s public hearing in Seattle, apparently hoping to suppress attendance. It didn’t work. Jonathan Lawson and Amanda Ballantyne of Reclaim the Media deserve much of the credit for publicizing the meeting and turning out such a passionate and boisterous audience. They join me in the studio to discuss the politics of media consolidation and what’s at stake.

Tune in tonight (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).

If FCC chair Kevin Martin thought he could depress turnout at tonight’s public hearing on media consolidation by scheduling it with only five days notice, he shouldn’t have located it in Seattle. By 7PM, Town Hall’s 800-seat auditorium was comfortably full, with more people still streaming in. Even now, over three hours into the proceedings a large crowd remains, with many more people milling about downstairs. I think it a safe bet to estimate that over 1200 people will have come through the doors by the end of the night.

The audience is not only large, but extremely enthusiastic, and almost entirely opposed to the FCC’s proposed rules loosening limits on cross ownership and consolidation. It is also (gasp) bipartisan. The meeting opened with live statements from Gov. Chris Gregoire, AG Rob McKenna, state auditor Brian Sonntag, and KC councilmember Reagan Dunn, plus prerecorded statements from Sen. Maria Cantwell, Rep. Jay Inslee and Rep. Dave Reichert. Needless to say, all opposed the rule changes. A panel of speakers including Seattle Times publisher Frank Blethen and KVI radio personality John Carlson also spoke to the commission, and again, overwhelmingly against the rules. Indeed, the only speakers the FCC could find to support further media consolidation were a handful of representatives from media companies that would benefit from the rule changes.

Meanwhile, over 251 audience members have already signed up for a two minute speaking slot — if everybody gets their turn we’ll be here for another eight hours! And of the dozens of concerned citizens who have already spoken, only one has argued in support of loosening ownership rules… my colleague and KTTH morning host, David Boze. (Talk about a brown nose. I sure hope that’s not what it takes to get ahead in today’s corporate-owned media, because if it is, I’m screwed.) Each speaker (except for Boze) has been thanked with loud and boisterous applause, a level of enthusiasm all the more amazing considering we all realize that the Republican majority on the FCC has already written the rules and made their decision, and that this whole hearing is little more than show.

I’m not sure how long I’ll stick around, but I’ll certainly post more later….

UPDATE (11:30PM):
I gotta admit, I couldn’t sit through the whole thing, so I went out for a drink, but I just got back, and it’s still going strong… maybe 200 people still sitting in the audience, more than seven hours later. Amazing. Over 280 concerned citizens signed up for their two minutes to speak, but they’re planning to shut things down at midnight. According to Andrew, who’s been live blogging the whole time, only a couple people have spoken in favor of loosening the ownership rules.

You can argue the merits of the proposed rule changes all you want, but one thing is absolutely clear from this FCC hearing… the public is overwhelmingly opposed. Nearly unanimously. This whole hearing may be a farce, but if so, the people here tonight are playing their roles with passion and verve.

It is not often that I find myself passionately on the same side of an issue as the likes of Frank Blethen and John Carlson, but that’s the Bizarro World alternate universe I’ll find myself in later today as I join them at Town Hall voicing opposition to the proposed loosening of the FCC’s media ownership rules. This is the FCC’s sixth and final public hearing on media ownership rules, and to show you how much the Republican majority on the commission fears a public backlash, they scheduled it with only five days notice.

All the more reason to fill Seattle’s Town Hall to the rafters. 4PM to 11PM, 8th & Seneca, Seattle.

If you want less localism, less original reporting, less diversity and less independence, then by all means stay home tonight and watch Deal or No Deal, or Friday Night Smackdown. But if you care about maintaining the vibrant and independent media that is final guarantor of our democracy, then I urge you to join me tonight in expressing righteous outrage.

A lot of court rulings in the news today, and it’s fascinating to hear local talk radio (ie, conservative talk) responding. When the court throws out Tim Eyman’s I-747, because, you know, it violated the Constitution, we get outrage, absolute outrage. And not just at the court, but at the legislature and the governor, who had nothing to do with ruling. (Because that’s the cynical purpose of the outrage, spinning some political advantage for 2008.)

Yet when a federal court throws out the state Pharmacy Board rule requiring pharmacists to fill prescriptions…? [audio:http://horsesass.org/wp-content/uploads/crickets.mp3]

What this tells me is that the folks on the right believe in the rule of law, except when the court rulings don’t go their way, prompting folks like my friend Dori to start talking about an armed tax revolt. Of course, he was only joking. The type of joke that would get a liberal like me labeled a hate talker, or possibly even jailed. But then, we’re the ones with all the guns, so I can understand the distinction.

Speaking of the rule of law, it looks like Lt. Ehrin Watada dodged a bullet — metaphorically this time — when a federal court ruled that military attorneys so totally fucked up his court martial, it would subject Watada to double jeopardy to be tried again. Of course, they could have just discharged Watada for refusing to go to Iraq, say, the way they would a qualified gay soldier who actually believes in this war and wants to fight it, but no, they had to try to make an example of an officer who boldly took a principled stand, whatever the consequences. I’d say the military’s execution of their case against Watada is an apt metaphor for the Bush administration’s execution of it’s war in Iraq: immoral and incompetent.

And nearly as incompetent as the army’s efforts against Watada in the court of law is NBA commissioner David Stern’s efforts on behalf of the Sonics in the court of public opinion:

“If the team moves, there’s not going to be another team there, not in any conceivable future plan that I could envision, and that would be too bad.”

Oh yeah, now that’s going to win you public support. Some rich white guy buys the team and attempts to blackmail local taxpayers out of half a billion dollars… and then you threaten the loyal fans who faithfully supported the team and the league for 40 years? And after one of the team’s Oklahoma City based owners publicly admitted that they never planned to keep the team in Seattle in the first place? Oh, well in that case, here’s your new arena.

Jesus… has Stern bothered to even read our local papers? This is a region where taxpayers refuse to pay for the things they need let alone the things they want, and he’s blaming Frank Chopp? This has nothing to do with Seattle — Clay Bennett and his buddies wanted an NBA team in Oklahoma City, so they went out an bought ours — and if Stern is happy swapping a big market for a little one, that’s up to him. But don’t come back and threaten us that we’ll never get another team because we refused to play ball with a blackmailer.

What an asshole.

Dear Pro-Roads/Anti-Rail Guys,

Fuck you. No really… fuck you.

And I’m not just saying “fuck you” out of anger, though hell yeah, I’m pretty damn pissed right now. No, I want you to remember this post as a threat of things to come, rather than just a cussing out for deeds past, for mark my words, you’ve made an enemy, and I hereby promise to do whatever I can to stick Prop 1 so far up your ass you’ll be wiping shit out of your ears with a Q-tip.

You see, you think you were so clever with your $157 billion lie and your SOV-loving Seattle Times endorsement and the way you used the dupes at the Sierra Club to cover for your selfish, car-fetish agenda. But while you may very well have succeeded in killing light rail expansion for a decade or three by defeating Prop 1, I’m going to do my darnedest to turn lemons into more lemons — bitter, spiteful lemons — and vehemently oppose any and all road or bus proposals that subsequently come down the pike. And you know what, I’m guessing that there are an awful lot of Seattle voters who are with me on this.

See, we didn’t just vote to defeat I-912 and preserve the gas tax increase, we progressives fought like hell to defeat it, because raising the gas tax was the responsible, right thing to do. A year later, when Ron Sims came to us and asked for an increase in our regressive sales tax to fund expanded bus service countywide, we Seattle progressives voted for that too. And even when you insisted on tying a roads package to our light rail package, forcing us to vote for highway expansion we didn’t want, we continued to be our usual pragmatic selves, recognizing that some of these roads projects were structurally necessary, while others were politically necessary, and that in the end, the pros outweighed the cons. And then you fucked us.

We gave you your gas tax. We gave Ron his buses. But you refused to give us our light rail. And you did so believing that despite being dicked over on the one thing we really wanted, we would remain good progressives, pragmatically voting to tax ourselves for good infrastructure projects, whenever they came our way. Well fuck that.

Yes, our transportation needs are great, and in some cases desperate, and I’m sure you’re counting on that reality to incrementally achieve everything you want, piece by piece, outside of a mega-package, all the while denying us the one thing that can’t be built incrementally: rail. For example, 520 is just too important to this region, so push comes to shove, Seattle voters just wouldn’t reject funding a new bridge, right? Don’t be so sure.

See, I’m tired of being reasonable. I’m tired of being sensible. I’m tired of being pragmatic, only to have amoral fuckers like you use my pragmatism against me. As far as I’m concerned, the 520 bridge can sink into the fucking lake, I don’t drive it more than three or four times a year anyway. Traffic on I-405? That’s Kemper Freeman Jr.’s problem, not mine. The Viaduct? Screw the Port, screw DOT, screw the state… just tear the fucker down and be done with it. I live in South Seattle. I’ve got my light rail. Everybody else can fend for themselves.

Really.

You opposed Prop 1 because you figured you’d get most of the roads stuff anyway, if incrementally, but hell if I’m going to reward you for your cynicism. I-5’s Ship Canal Bridge could collapse in an earthquake, and I will fight against any tax or fee increase to replace it, unless… we get light rail expansion with it. So here’s the deal: first, you give us rail, and then we’ll give you some roads money, because we clearly can’t trust you the other way around. And if that’s not good enough for you then have fun watching your precious gasoline excise tax revenues eaten away by inflation and declining per capita consumption, because you can’t pass another increase without us.

Sure, it’s just little old me talking right now, but while most Seattleites are too polite to swear like me, and perhaps aren’t quite as spiteful either, I honestly believe you’ve underestimated the depth of opposition you’ve generated through your cynical maneuvering. In relying on the absolutist “no new roads” meme enunciated by your allies at the Sierra Club and The Stranger, you may very well have laid the seeds of your own destruction. That’s a meme I intend to seize upon without compassion or remorse, consequences be damned.

We had the opportunity to work together on a regional transportation solution, but instead you chose to fuck us. Prepare to be fucked back.

Love,
Goldy

One initiative is born. Another initiative dies. Just days after voters approve Tim Eyman’s blatantly unconstitutional and laughably unworkable I-960, the state Supreme Court throws out Timmy’s laughably unconstitutional and blatantly unworkable I-747. It’s the Tim Eyman version of the “circle of life.”

“A voter reading the text of the initiative could believe that he or she was voting to reduce the property tax limit by 1 percent instead of by 5 percent, a substantially different impact on the public coffers, as well as the perceived benefit to the individual voter’s purse,” the majority, led by Justice Bobbe Bridge, wrote.

To sum up the 5-4 decision, the majority ruled that I-747 technically violated the state Constitution, while the dissenters argued that yeah, sorta, but voters weren’t confused. Personally, I’m a big fan of the rule of law, so I side with the majority.

Eyman has passed six initiatives since achieving celebrity status in 1999, four of which have now been thrown out by the courts in whole or in part… with I-960 sure to make number five. And while it would be fun to tease Tim about his woeful inability to write laws that are, you know, legal — and I’d absolutely love to poke fun at the legal eagles who share credit for crafting I-747, state Attorney General Rob McKenna and state Supreme Court Justice Jim Johnson — I think I’d rather take this opportunity to post a more constructive commentary.

Eyman has arrogantly challenged the Legislature to respond to today’s court ruling, and I think they should do exactly that, by reimposing I-747, but at a more realistic limit factor on revenue growth of 4% or inflation, whichever is lower. This would allow local governments to continue to provide services at current levels without being forced to go to voters every couple years for special purpose lid lifts, while providing the kind of budgeting stability afforded the private sector. With energy and health care costs continuing to skyrocket, I-747’s 1% limit factor is simply unsustainable.

At the same time, Democrats in Olympia need to take the lead on providing targeted and meaningful property tax relief to those who need it most, without bankrupting the local governments that provide the bulk of our essential public services. I have long championed a revenue neutral Property Tax Homestead Exemption tied to median county home prices, that would partially reverse a decades long trend in which tax burden has gradually shifted from commercial property and the very wealthy to working and middle income homeowners. But the folks at the Washington State Budget & Policy Center have a better, if more complicated, proposal: a Property Tax Circuit Breaker.

Circuit breakers provide targeted, revenue neutral relief by providing a graduated tax credit that kicks in when property taxes exceed a certain percentage of household income, and unlike a homestead exemption, the credit can be made available to renters and homeowners alike. In a state that earns the dubious honor of having the most regressive tax structure in the nation, a well-designed circuit breaker would not only provide substantial relief to low- and middle-income households — say, a 15% reduction in property taxes — it would also restore a bit of fairness and equity. Lower income households would still pay a higher share of income in property taxes than wealthier households, but the size of the imbalance would be lower.

This is a smart and progressive proposal that lowers property taxes on the majority of voters while raising those on the wealthiest households by only about 2 percent. It is time for Democrats to seize control of this debate from demagogues like Eyman and the GOP leadership, by offering real leadership and real solutions. It is time to approve a property tax circuit breaker.

“Fox News shows more sexualized violence and humiliation than probably any other network — all in the name of condemning it — while under-showing violence in Iraq, all in the name of supporting it.”
— Gloria Steinem

Hell if the family values party would condemn the network that leads the charge in spreading their lies and propaganda. But you can. Sign the petition telling the FCC that you should not be forced to pay for FOX’s smut. Demand a la carte cable.