Two polls in one day! And another one supposedly on the way.
The second WA-1 poll today comes from PPP on behalf of Democracy For America, a group that backs Darcy Burner, but is “independent”. Take that as you wish.
The poll surveyed 521 likely primary voters (about a 4.3% MOE) on the 16th and 17th of July.
Results:
- Koster (R) 48%
- Burner (D) 17%
- DelBene (D) 13%
- Hobbs (D) 5%
- Ruderman (D) 4%
- Rauniyar (D) 1%
- Ishmael (I) 1%
- Undecided 11%
This poll is consistent with the previous poll in showing Darcy Burner with a small lead over Susan DelBene. It also shows Rudderman in 4th place among the Democrats. It is pretty clear that, of the Democrats, Hobbs, Ruderman, and Rauniyar are not much of a factor.
This poll differs from the previous one in showing a more difficult general election for Democrats, since Republican John Koster is at 48% with 11% undecided. While Republicans are more likely to be be decided in this particular race, it doesn’t take many to push Koster over 50%.
Given this poll and the previous on, I’d say the general election is a dead heat.
Update: More poll details here.
Here are some notes:
The survey found 34% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 28% Independent/Other. A weighted average of the earlier Strategies 360 poll and this poll gives:
- Democrats 38.4%
- Republicans 39.0%
- Other 22.6%
Close, huh?
Interestingly, in this poll Darcy Burner gets the lion’s share of Democratic voters at 40% compared to 23% for DelBene. But DelBene gets 14% of the Independent/Other vote compared to Burner’s 9%.
Koster has 88% of Republicans locked-up; only 5% are undecided. Some 15% of Democrats and 16% of Independent/Others are undecided.
The oddest finding is that Koster received 50% of the (~68) non-White “votes”, but only 48% of the White “vote”. Huh?!? This is likely just sampling “error.”
John Koster has an A.A. degree from Everett Community College. He’s a farmer, so I’ll bet he hunts rabbits.
Darcy Burner has a Harvard degree in economics.* Darcy hugs rabbits!
* A Harvard dean says so, trolls, so quit lying that she doesn’t.
This election will be a Republican landslide
strike 3 for Darcy real soon…..
respected farmer vs resume lying nutcase.
@2 – This sort of optimism is usually associated with Chinese stocks.
@3 Darcy is a farmer? I didn’t know. I do know she likes rabbits, though, and that’s enough for me!
RR,
“This sort of optimism is usually associated with Chinese stocks”
Or mental illness.
How does Burner’s “resume lying” compare to McKenna’s Baron?
you tell me….
“microsoft executive”….another stretch of the truth…lol
Koster’s a freak.
This is very bad news for Darcy.
Two polls in one day! And another 17th of July.
Results:
Koster (R) 48%
Burner (D) 17%
DelBene (D) 13%
Hobbs (D) 5%
Ruderman (D) 4%
Rauniyar (D) 1%
Ishmael (I) 1%
Undecided 11%
Another way of looking at these numbers is that Koster is at 48, with 11% independent. If I assume the latter is 2/3 moderate and 1/3 Tea Party, he is winning big time!
The data suggest that even if she “wins” the primary Burner can not win the election. Her vote in the primary is likely now down to the core support she has from the group that calls itself “progressive.” While the term is fuzzy, I suspect it is no more than 20% of the electorate in the new 1st. I suspect the 17% reflects votes going to Rudderman.
Add in the folks who automatically vote “D”, Darcy’s cap in a general may be 40%! I suspect that Darcy can not win a race with Koster unless he is struck by lightning or reveals that he has not paid taxes for five years.
Suzan DelBene, on the other hand, largely based the media has come from nowhere to 13%. That is not great but it suggests that media, money and establishment support work.
If Suzan does win the primary, she has a chance of winning the election. Here is my reasoning. I assume that some of the Koster vote is business type Rs. If this is true, Suzan may be able to peel votes from his 48. Put simply she has an awful lot of the entrepreneurial image Romney has. Inslee is actually running to the right of McKenna on budget issues .. this could help Suzan. I can even imagine her getting folks to vote a Romney/DelBene ballot!
Looks as if God is having the last word?
God,
“This is very bad news for Darcy.”
Please! Spare us from your anti-Darcy Derangement Syndrome. This isn’t any worse news for Darcy than it is for the other Democratic (and Independent) candidate. (And the two polls taken together are not bad or good news for the general election outcome.)
“Another way of looking at these numbers is that Koster is at 48, with 11% independent. If I assume the latter is 2/3 moderate and 1/3 Tea Party, he is winning big time!”
Sure…if you focus on this poll alone. The previous poll was less favorable to Koster. This is why we hope for multiple polls in a race…so we get a bigger picture and don’t get too obsessive about one number.
“The data suggest that even if she “wins” the primary Burner can not win the election. “
(Wins in quotes? What the fuck is that?)
The data also “suggest” that if DelBene “wins” the primary, she cannot win the election.
“Her vote in the primary is likely now down to the core support she has from the group that calls itself “progressive.””
Umm…the crosstabs from the Strategy 360 poll show her “core” support among independents a little stronger than DelBene’s (12% B to 8% D). Among self-identified “moderates” DelBene leads Burner by 17% to 15% (both pairs of statistics have large sampling error).
“While the term is fuzzy, I suspect it is no more than 20% of the electorate in the new 1st. I suspect the 17% reflects votes going to Rudderman.”
So? Ruderman isn’t going to be in the General election. I though you were discussing chances in the General.
“Add in the folks who automatically vote “D”, Darcy’s cap in a general may be 40%!”
You’re just making up shit now. Or, if not, please explain how you assess general election support for two Democratic candidates based on subgroups support in the primary? (And does your “method” suggest DelBene couldn’t win because progressives are so much stronger for Burner [B 26%, D 16%]?)
“I suspect that Darcy can not win a race with Koster unless he is struck by lightning or reveals that he has not paid taxes for five years.”
I suspect you are taking out of your ass. (Or, at a minimum, you didn’t need the polling to “suspect” this, since you don’t seem to be basing this on a rational reading of the evidence available….
“Suzan DelBene, on the other hand, largely based the media has come from nowhere to 13%.”
But, Koster has 48% in this poll!!!!!!! NO WAY can she win. NO WAY!! (*rolls eyes*)
“That is not great but it suggests that media, money and establishment support work.”
Yes…it does. But this confuses the primary and the general election parts of the election.
“If Suzan does win the primary, she has a chance of winning the election.”
Oh?
“Here is my reasoning. I assume that some of the Koster vote is business type Rs. If this is true, Suzan may be able to peel votes from his 48. Put simply she has an awful lot of the entrepreneurial image Romney has.”
On the other hand, a being a “two percenter” may turn off a big chunk of voters who are voting against Mitt Romney on the very same ballot for being a “one percenter”.
“Inslee is actually running to the right of McKenna on budget issues .. this could help Suzan.”
This seems entirely irrelevant.
“I can even imagine her getting folks to vote a Romney/DelBene ballot!”
No doubt, some. But given the themes in the Presidential race, it’s anyone’s guess whether those folks will make up for the lost anti-2%er vote!
I have made a decision to do my part to keep Dick Muri out of the House: if his name appears on my ballot in November, I will vote for the Democrat to keep Muri out of office. FYI, he’s a Republican from Steilacoom running for the 10th District seat in the House of Representatives.
Those of you who have read my comments in the past must realize what a drastic move this in on my part. I normally would never vote for a Democrat (or a Republican), but I feel this is an extraordinary situation where action must be taken to keep a bad candidate out of office.
Darryl, let me help you your friend God out.
DelBene’s chances are now in the hands of old fashioned machine/media politics. I suggest that the next few polls will show how effective DelBene’s money is.
I also suggest that it is very hard to see Darcy getting to the 50% unless these polls show that the 52% anti Koster vote is very solid. Do you really think she can peal away his votes?
The key to beating Koster is to paint him as an extremist on social issues, particularly abortion, contraception, and reproductive health.
Now this shouldn’t be too hard given that Koster is an extremist on social issues.
I know Burner will go after him hard on this, but I question if DelBene actually has the guts because the standard dem playbook for swing districts is to equivocate on every damn issue even ones that should be slam dunks for democrats lest you be seen as too “liberal” or even worse get painted as a DFH.