The Seattle Times released details over the weekend of the Elway Poll it and the Spokesman-Review had commissioned, and the crosstabs look even worse for Dino Rossi than the top-line 50-41% Patty Murray lead initially reported. Indeed, according to Elway, Murray doesn’t just enjoy broader support than Rossi, she enjoys stronger support, and for more positive reasons.
The 50-41% top-line includes both strong supporters and leaners, but when the latter is excluded, and only those responding that they would “definitely” vote for one candidate or the other are counted, Murray leads Rossi by a more substantial 43-30%. Huh. 30 percent. That’s less than Will Baker type numbers… the bare minimum that any Republican candidate will get in a statewide election just for having an “R” next to their name on the ballot.
Perhaps even more interesting is the question regarding the motivation of respondents. 66% of Murray supporters said that their vote had more to do with keeping Murray in the Senate, compared to 22% who were more concerned with keeping Rossi out. But only 35% of Rossi voters said they were motivated more by the desire to put him into the Senate, compared to the 45% motivated to keep Murray out.
If there’s an enthusiasm gap, it doesn’t appear to be in Rossi’s favor.
Still, both campaigns are up on the air now in heavy rotation, and voters are just starting to pay close attention to the race, so it will be interesting to see how these numbers move in the next round of polling.
Ya gotta admit it’s a little tough to get too excited over the dynamic Rossi persona or his revolutionary new platform.
Not as much as this guy…
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....g_you.html
Boo Fucking Hoo….
@2 Not as much as this guy
Um, yeah, he certainly doesn’t get much mention on HA much anymore. In fact, you have to go to the Seattle Times just to discover what he’s been up to since those heady days of Hope and Change that Goldy bought into.
Come on, where’s that middle schooler with the Rasmussen polling?
Murray will get though the election just fine. It’s a snoozer of a mid-term in WA, but snoozers don’t sell soap so the media thinks they need to create news where there is none.
Why would anyone vote for a greasy real estate salesman who enthusiastically worked for a broker who went to prison for robbing widows and orphans and couldn’t wait to work for the guy again when he was released from prison?
I haven’t been real impressed with the TV commercials on either side. Both did their “smear the other guy” commercials by alleging that whatever they are for is going to cost us jobs and wreck the economy. Without specifics, it’s easy for the other side to play the same game.
Murray does best when we are taking about specifics, Rossi is counting on bland generalities to carry him through the election.
His most recent ads have him complaining about Murrays ads which criticise him. Boo Hoo.
By the way, Rossi is now hitting the evangelical circuit. Saw him in a church service on Sunday (not my church, but one I was visiting). I assume it wasn’t the only one he attended that day, as it was the early service an he departed shortly after he gave his spiel. He was introduced warmly, there was mostly polite if understated applause, although there were a handful who cheered him loudly.
Now, a politician in the middle of a heated election campaign needs to walk a fine line when speaking at a church. Those who do it best are the ones who give a short statement about who they are, and how important church/Jesus/God is in their lives, and then turn it back over to the pastor. If they do it right, they don’t even mention that they are running for office.
Rossi didn’t go this path. He gave his basic stump speech, about how he rose from humble Italian-immigrant background, how his family has been in the northwest for more than three generations, how he worked his way through college as a janitor, how he toured Asia for a few months after college from money he had saved, and how he made his money through hard work in the commercial real estate business.
Then he asked everyone to agree with him that in America, anyone like him from humble roots can achieve great things through hard work and dedication, pointing to himself as a rags-to-riches success story. Then he went on to claim that the increasing role of government threatens everyone’s freedom, and if we don’t reverse the Democratic policies nobody else will be able to achieve success, like he has. Just in case anyone didn’t know, he reminded them that he was running for the Senate, and that he didn’t plan to run, but had been talked into doing so because he was desperately needed in the Senate to help turn the country around.
Yeah, but if the barbers and beauticians show up, watch out!
Slimy. Most politicians are lying when they spew their “religious” beliefs to you…just saying whatever they think will get them votes. You’d think this cynical and political abuse of someone personal religion would be offensive. Like John McCain switching his life long religion to become a Southern Baptist IMMEDIATELY before running for the Republican Presidential nomination. Such a blatant cheap political move would seem to insult folks, but more often than not they just accept it.
At least I’ll give Mitt Romney credit for STICKING to his Mormon faith, even if the vast majority of his party (Southern Baptist) don’t believe Mormon’s are “really” Christians. He could have pulled a McCain and “found new belief” while running for office, but he hasn’t. He’ll still never get the Republican nomination because he’s not a “real” Christian, but good for him for sticking to it.
You should never mix religion and politics, it poisons both. You either end up with government run by religion (see: Taliban, Sharia, Saudi Arabia, Church of England) where it always fails, or religion control by government (which no one wants). Just don’t do it…bad bad bad. Politics is to decide who gets to “run” government and fix our roads, build sewers and keep the police and fire departments running. Religion is to help you feel good about yourself and ask why we’re here in the universe. Those things shouldn’t cross.
Dino Rossi is an enthusiasm gap.
2 del
Didn’t listen to the answer, did you?
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....woman.html
11. Alki Postings
I don’t agree. I think Mitt will be their guy in 20102. Republicans have been very consistent over the last few decades about giving the nod to the next guy in line (Romney was essentially in second place in 2008). GW Bush in 2000 was an anomaly, mainly because he lined up all his daddy’s backers and cornered all of the campaign money 1 1/2 years before the election.
4. kaela
It’s not so hard to find out. Maybe you’ve heard of these:
…the Affordable Care Act, the Recovery Act, Wall Street reform, student loan reform, Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, new regulation of the credit card industry, new regulation of the tobacco industry, a national service bill, expanded stem-cell research, nuclear arms deal with Russia, a new global nonproliferation initiative, the Hate Crimes Prevention Act, the most sweeping land-protection act in 15 years…
Hey, does anyone remember that president Obama cut taxes for 95%+ of all Americans in his first year in office, just like he promised? OR the he’s proposing RIGHT NOW to cut taxes for ALL Americans (on all marginal income under $250K). Try to remember the facts now and then.
Dino Rossi is about as stirring as cold Cream of Wheat.
Rumorcentral
Dino Rossi would make a great replacemtn gor Michael Steele.
Imagine him as the first Tlingitt to hold the job.
BTW, I hope y’all teabagers give large sums of campaign cash to Christine O’Donnell in Delaware. She needs to pay her rent this month.
14. Daddy Love spews:
Very unlikely.
Will more likely be someone like Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, John Thune etc.
Americans are tired of the ImamObaMao schtick.
ImamObaMao did a pathetic job at the Town Hall today…he took another beating. This is why he avoids direct questions.
OT, but too funny to pass up. Let’s give these people a hand:
20 Cyn
Really? You think the Republicans are going to pick an unknown hack back-bencher like John Thune and make him the face of the party? Oh well, in 2012 it will hardly matter who your party chooses. Think about 2016.
Dino still doesn’t know what hit him (courtesy Seattle Times):
Oh, Dino, it must be so tough to be so disconnected from reality. What color is the sky in your world?
# 21: Okay, that’s pretty funny.
In related news, the American Procastinator’s Society will hold a convention. Sometime. If they ever get around to it.
Rhp @ 9 – which church was this? I want to challenge their tax-free status.
DLL @ 21
Any thoughts on why Teabaggers disapprove of masturbation but are pro-goat fucking? Personally, I see some dissonance in the two positions.
@15 It’s not so hard to find out. Maybe you’ve heard of these
Right, Daddy, just keeping on hoping from your comfortable perch at Microsoft. Meanwhile, you’re totally out-of-touch:
““I’m exhausted of defending you, defending your administration, defending the mantle of change that I voted for,” said the first questioner, an African-American woman who identified herself as a chief financial officer, a mother and a military veteran. “I’ve been told that I voted for a man who was going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class, and I’m waiting, sir, I’m waiting. I still don’t feel it yet.””
Disappointed Supporters Question Obama
[http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/21/us/politics/21obama.html?hp]
Meanwhile, I see your Daddy, Steve Ballmer, is coming out hard against 1098:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.c.....g_inc.html
You want to do some good, Daddy? Get out front of your campus with a sign and let Steve and those other Microsoft zillionaires know what you think. That’ll take some real courage, of course, and not just sneaking time from work to post on HA.
27
Those who are disappointed that Obama has not brought change fast enough are blind to political reality. Given GOP intransigence with regard to anything he might try to do, and given the number of Blue Dog Democrats in Congress, it’s amazing Obama got anything passed. True, meaningful, and lasting change can only happen if the Ds get bigger numbers in both Houses.
I’m glad when this blog sticks to more local news. You like or hate Obama? Great, there are thousand other blogs out there covering his activities.
@13
I want that part of my life back, listening to 15 minutes of Obambi rambling without answering the question.
November can’t come soon enough. Neither can 2012.
@28
You hold both houses of Congress and the Presidency. There is nothing the GOP can do to thwart the uber-left agenda except expose it to the light of day. Some lefty ideas are so fucking stupid that even Democrats can’t stomach them.
Ever heard of the filibuster, oh ye civics sage?
@ 9. rhp6033 spews:
Yikes! Isn’t it telling that Rossi had so little regard for that church’s tax-free status?
He was inviting complaints from non-Rossi voters and sure left that Pastor in a pickle. Pastor wasn’t in a position to pull the gong-hook out to shut him up.
Ummm, not surprised. Rossi just seems to me to be a greasy self serving weasel.
28 you’re SOL on him gaining any numbers at all in the houses, in fact his spending spree will likely cost him a lame duck two years thank god!
# 33: Yea, I was worried about that, also. That’s why candidates need to avoid talking about the campaign itself, then they can argue that it wasn’t promoting a specific candidate. Even if the pastor didn’t fully understand the rules, Rossi should. I’ve seen candidates with a lot less experience, running for much lower offices, be able to do it right.
Maybe Rossi’s getting desperate, and figures he’s got to pull out all the stops, even if he burns a few bridges behind him?
Hmmm, maybe he should be running more ads like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnFQ_77Sd2U