– Decline to sign the charter schools initiative.
– Lou Dobbs is a horrible person [h/t].
– Give me a rambling rover.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– Decline to sign the charter schools initiative.
– Lou Dobbs is a horrible person [h/t].
– Give me a rambling rover.
by Lee — ,
Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was the Whispering Firs Golf Course on JBLM.
This week’s contest is related to something in the news from June, good luck!
by Goldy — ,
by Darryl — ,
Obama For America outtakes.
Young Turks: CIA documents show Bin Laden warnings ignored:
Thom: Republicans find another union to bust.
Greenman: Climate crocks…Marc Morano at Heartland.
ONN: The Onion Week in Review.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Sam Seder: New 9/11 documents expose Bush admin. lies.
Susie Sampson Tea Party Report: Immigration!
Full of Mitt:
Slate News: Springsteen won’t hang with Chris Christie.
Alyona: Romney Doppelganger hates poor people.
Indecision in the park.
A clown answer for Harry Reid:
Sam Seder: Vagina mentioning Rep. like “child who needed a time out”.
Thom: What do Republicans love about rape?
Young Turks: Secret right wing money spent on deceptive ads.
Ann Telnaes: Sheldon Adelson’s gift.
Fast, but mostly Furious:
ONN: Tea Party quiet—too quiet.
Sam Seder and Chris Hayes: Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy.
Young Turks: Poll shows Republicans grossly misinformed on Iran, Iraq.
Alyona: Indiana Wingnut covers his bases on SCOTUS ruling.
Obama in Tampa.
“Joe” the “Historian”:
White House: West Wing Week.
Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Arizona’s Secretary of State Ken Bennett is back with more Birfer insanity.
Anti-Obama teleprompter ad.
Young Turks: 2/3 of Republicans believe Obama was born outside of U.S.
Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | Romney |
99.7% probability of winning | 0.3% probability of winning |
Mean of 326 electoral votes | Mean of 212 electoral votes |
Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.
There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
AZ | PPP | 04-Jun | 05-Jun | 791 | 3.5 | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
CO | PPP | 14-Jun | 17-Jun | 799 | 3.5 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
FL | Quinnipiac | 12-Jun | 18-Jun | 1697 | 2.4 | 46 | 42 | O+4 |
IA | WeAskAmerica | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 1086 | 3.0 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
ME | WBUR | 13-Jun | 14-Jun | 506 | 4.4 | 48 | 34 | O+14 |
MI | Mitchell | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 750 | 3.6 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
MI | WeAskAmerica | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 1010 | 3.1 | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
MI | Rasmussen | 14-Jun | 14-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
MI | Baydoun | 12-Jun | 12-Jun | 1783 | 2.3 | 46.9 | 45.5 | O+1.4 |
MT | Rasmussen | 18-Jun | 18-Jun | 400 | 4.5 | 42 | 51 | R+9 |
NE | PNA | 11-Jun | 13-Jun | 601 | — | 40 | 52 | R+12 |
NV | PPP | 07-Jun | 10-Jun | 500 | 4.4 | 48 | 42 | O+6 |
NH | Rasmussen | 20-Jun | 20-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 43 | O+5 |
NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 31-May | 04-Jun | 1065 | 2.9 | 56 | 33 | O+23 |
WA | PPP | 14-Jun | 17-Jun | 1073 | 3.0 | 54 | 41 | O+13 |
WA | Elway | 13-Jun | 16-Jun | 408 | 5.0 | 49 | 41 | O+8 |
WI | Marquette | 13-Jun | 15-Jun | 594 | 4.1 | 49 | 43 | O+6 |
WI | Rasmussen | 12-Jun | 12-Jun | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 47 | R+3 |
by Carl Ballard — ,
Via Blue Oregon, I see that PPP are asking for suggestions for what they want polled in OR, OH and MA. But it got me thinking of some things I’d like polled in Washington.
But enough of me saying what I’d like to see, what would you like to see in polls in Washington State?
by Carl Ballard — ,
I don’t think it is. I mean we’re a secular country. So our laws don’t reflect one doctrine or one religion over another. And Christians who oppose letting anyone getting married clearly aren’t the oppressed minority they seem to think they are.
Still, it’s nice to see the push back from the Christian community beyond just a live and let live attitude. Joel Connelly has an interesting piece on the Minnesota anti-marriage equality constitutional amendment. After noting the official Catholic Church position, he talks about Catholics who oppose the amendment:
Three retired priests recently sent a letter to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune under the heading, “Catholics of Minnesota, you have a choice. There is not just one way for Catholics to vote in November.”
Rev. Tom Garvey, a priest for 55 years, spoke to Minnesota Public Radio about Nienstedt’s edict, saying: “That was a terrible thing, such an injustice to say you cannot disagree with me on this matter.”
And in other religions, the officialdom is getting on the right side of history.
Five synods of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ECLA) have voted to oppose it. The United Methodist Church in Minnesota has come out against it.
The proposed amendment “would prevent one group of committed couples and their families from pursuing ordinary legislative or legal means to gain the support and protections afforded to all others,” said a resolution passed by the Minneapolis Synod of the ECLA.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– Oh, that kind of marriage equality.
– I didn’t know anything about the story of the story KIRO ran about the Leschi custodian. But the response from the Washington News Council makes me glad there’s at least some type of accountability.
– The Interurban Trail in Edmonds.
– Another 36th District debate.
– How have you been celebrating National Pollinator Week?
by Carl Ballard — ,
I should start out by saying that Mars Hill have been good neighbors since they opened a church in my neighborhood. They’re a part of the community, and it’s appreciated. That said, what the fuck [h/t]?
“Mark started the meeting by telling us he was convinced that I had demons,” says Amy, “and then he went on to add that my demons were ‘sexual demons’.”
Amy describes Mark’s demeanor toward her as a “fiery tirade”. During this encounter, Mark told Amy he believed that every one of her sins were “sex based.” He said that the demons inside her were out to destroy every one of the marriages in their circle of friends.
Really, I don’t know what to say (other than muttering “sex demons?” repeatedly under my breath, and that’s probably not helpful).
by Carl Ballard — ,
It’s that time of year again. Time to debate if the Space Needle should fly the rainbow flag.
The Space Needle, a symbol of Seattle though owned by a private company, initially said it would not fly the rainbow flag last year. The company changed its mind after $50,000 was raised to benefit charities that work with the LGBT community, and the flag waved during Seattle’s 2011 Gay Pride Parade.
The 2012 parade is this weekend. Space Needle managers haven’t responded to my question about whether they will or won’t fly the flag atop the structure, now painted “galaxy orange” in honor of its 50th anniversary.
I hope they fly it every year, like the 12th man flag.
by Darryl — ,
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night, and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday.
With 228 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.
by Darryl — ,
Two new polls have been released this week in the Washington state gubernatorial contest between former 1st CD Congressman Jay Inslee and state AG Rob McKenna.
The first poll is from Elway. The poll surveyed 408 people (5% MOE) from the 13th to the 18th of June. McKenna leads Inslee in that poll 42% to 40%.
To translate McKenna’s lead into a probability statement, I ran a million simulated elections using the observed percentages and poll size from the Elway poll. Inslee won 369,617 to McKenna’s 615,161 wins, suggestingg that, for an election now, McKenna would beat Inslee with a 62.5% to 37.5% probability.
The other new poll is from Public Policy Polling, and surveyed 1,073 people (MOE 3%). The poll was conducted from the 14th to the 17th of June—it completely overlaps the Elway poll. In this poll, McKenna leads Inslee 43% to 40%.
Doing the same analysis for this second poll shows Inslee winning 219,670 “elections” and McKenna winning 773,413. In other words, this poll provides evidence that McKenna would win with a 77.9% probability in an eleciton held now.
But given the temporal overlap of the polls, we can do better by combining the two June polls. Together they cover 1,481 adult registered voters of whom 1,225 had decided on McKenna or Inslee. Inslee took 40.0% of the votes to McKenna’s 42.7%.
The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee 207,467 wins to McKenna’s 786,651 wins. In other words, the June polls suggest McKenna has a 79.1% probability of beating Inslee, and Inslee would win an election now with a 20.9% probability. Statisticians often consider a lead with anything less than a 95% winning chance to be a statistical tie.
Here is the distribution of election outcomes for the combined results:
And here is a snapshot of all the polls for this race:
The new polls suggests to some folks (like Joni Balter and the election wonks at Daily Kos Elections) that the gap is closing in this race.
Could be. Or maybe it has just been close all along. A straight line through 48% Inslee to 52% McKenna fits within the margin of error for all of the polls. On the other hands, the polls from last year, taken as a whole, seem more favorable to McKenna than the collective polls taken this year.
I guess we need more polls to sort it out.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– I’m not sure zero tolerance is a good strategy for dealing with gun crimes. But the previous strategies clearly weren’t working.
– RIP Rodney King.
– If the Tea Party doesn’t want to be seen as racist, maybe don’t start off a rally with a racist joke.
– Lord Player says more homophobic nonsense.
– Publicola are back.
– Happy Solstice.
– This is the greatest headline in human history.
by Carl Ballard — ,
When Lee and I (and some other folks) used to do metacommentary one of our favorite blogs to make fun of was Reagan Wing. Nowadays, they’re pretty much just a Ron Paul blog. And is keepusfree upset with Rand Paul, but don’t criticize him.
Rand Paul a Traitor?
No. He endorsed a different presidential candidate than you. Unless that presidential candidate is Jefferson Davis, it ain’t treason.
Along with many of you in the Liberty Movement, I watched and listened with sick horror to Rand Paul’s endorsement of Mitt Romney. But thinking about it, in a political sense, in a global context of what is happening in our world, I would like to offer a hypothesis.
I think you’ll be surprised to learn that there’s a difference between vague half articulated conspiracy theories and a hypothesis.
We do not know the pressures that might have been brought to bear on Ron and Rand Paul. The power wielded by the enemies of the free people of the world is enormous and they have no scruples, no mercy, and no justice. In a perfect world, there might be a “John Galt” moment, where Rand steps aside to reveal the gun pointed at him. But that is a novel. Real life is not so clean.
I think the enemies of free people probably brought a bear to bear on Rand Paul. What I’m saying is watch out for his family getting mauled by a grizzly if he switches back to his father. It can’t possibly have anything to do with delegate math. I know the Ron Paul people think they’ll just overwhelm the national convention. But (a) they won’t, and (b) even if they did, maybe Rand Paul thinks it would be immoral (or just bad politics) to nominate someone who couldn’t win the majority of a single state. But you know what, fuck all that: mysterious forces.
If the Powers That Be can see our heroes brought low, it is to their great advantage and will serve them well. That someone breaks under the kind of pressure that they can exert is to be expected.
The pressure of winning the nomination. Wait, am I defending Mitt Romney? What’s wrong with me? It must be The Powers That Be. Anyway, it goes on like this for a while: they’re brave truth tellers, and it’s oh so tough. Then we reach the conclusion.
Rand Paul’s Cross
In this metaphor, Rand Paul is Jesus. But maybe, I’m being too over the top. It’s a fairly common metaphor that we all understand. It’s not like she called his father “Father” with a capital “F” or something.
Before you criticize Rand Paul, you should walk a mile in his shoes. The road he is traveling cannot be easy and will be rocky and dangerous. But his Father must have passed on some of his stalwart principles to his son, and he may yet serve us, even while he faces our ire and castigation for something which well may be completely out of his control, or may be a part of something we cannot yet see or understand. It may be the cross he has to bear and the sacrifice he has to make in order to continue in the fight at all. Only time will tell.
Or, he’s just a politician with some awful ideas that are closer to his dad’s. But since his dad isn’t going to win the nomination, he endorsed the other guy with horrible ideas.
by Carl Ballard — ,
– This story about how Obama’s DREAM act executive order will play out in the Tri-Cities is interesting, but is Tri-Cities a reasonable dateline?
– The Vagina Monologues to be performed at the Michigan capital.
– Extra value?