Archives for May 2005

Live by the cherry-pick, die by the cherry-pick.

In court documents filed before Friday’s deadline, Democrats claim they have identified a total of 743 felons who voted illegally, mostly from pro-Rossi precincts. This is not only more than enough to offset the 946 felon votes claimed by Dino Rossi’s attorneys, but using the GOP’s very own statistical methodology, may even expand Governor Christine Gregoire’s 129-vote margin.

Washington State Democratic Party Chair Paul Berendt also claims that this is evidence that Rossi deliberately concealed evidence of illegal votes cast statewide:

“The discovery of these additional illegal votes reinforces the Democratic Party’s long-held belief that Dino Rossi has concealed illegal votes that benefited him in November.

This new information explains why Dino Rossi argued that evidence of the illegal votes that benefited him should not be considered by the court, because if you look where Dino Rossi wants the court to ignore, he loses even under his own theory.”

The Democrats issued a press release with a map showing 22 counties where they claim Rossi concealed names of felon voters who would have benefited him under his own proportional reduction theory. The Democrats found additional felons in other counties, in precincts that also voted pro-Rossi.

Counties Where Rossi Concealed Illegal Votes

According to the Seattle Times, Democrats have also added two University of Washington professors to their legal team, who plan to argue that felons are more likely to have voted for Rossi than Gregoire.

“We know for a fact that nonunion, blue-collar, Caucasian men vote very disproportionately Republican, and when you look at the felon population in the state of Washington, they are overwhelmingly nonunion, blue-collar, male Caucasians,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Paul Berendt.

“This could be under any other circumstance the prime demographic Republicans target in their” get-out-the-vote effort, he said.

This is an issue we’ve argued forwards and backwards in the comment threads, and I’m guessing we’ll argue it some more. But the point is, if you’re going to settle this election by statistical analysis, you’ve got to make sure you’re analyzing the right statistics. For example, 95 percent of felons are male, and thus it would be misleading to simply infer that precinct is the only significant predictor of how they may have cast their ballot. Republicans would like you to believe that the real winner of this election can be determined by a simple math equation… but nothing is further from the truth.

Anyway, here’s the final county breakdown of felon votes alleged by Democrats:

Adams	1
Benton	53
Chelan	21
Clallam	12
Clark	57
Columbia	1
Cowlitz	10
Douglas	7
Ferry	6
Franklin	8
Garfield	1
Grant	45
Grays Harbor	1
Island	5
Jefferson	1
King	58
Kitsap	31
Kittitas	8
Klickitat	3
Lewis	22
Lincoln	5
Mason	1
Okanogan	11
Pacific	1
Pierce	86
Skagit	17
Skamania	1
Snohomish	52
Spokane	86
Stevens	1
Thurston	29
Walla Walla	11
Whatcom	8
Whitman	7
Yakima	76

Of course, Republicans are already questioning the accuracy of the Democratic list, and I’m sure some of these names won’t pan out… but then, neither will some on the Republican list. I think it is telling that with all the GOP talk of shoddy work on the part of the Democrats, Vance could come up with very few actual examples in the Times.

State Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance said that 31 of the people included on an early Democratic list were among the felons listed by Republicans. He also said he doubts the accuracy of the Democratic claim that residents at Western State Hospital voted illegally because they had been found mentally incompetent. Vance said Republicans investigated those votes earlier and were unable to determine whether they were illegal.

“It feels to me like the Democrats are desperately trying to build a last line of defense,” Vance said.

The fact is, Rossi would need at least a 700 felon advantage (if you can call it that) to have a hope of prevailing on his most favorable proportional methodology… so the Democrats have plenty of cushion. And if Vance wants to talk about desperation, he should take a look at the comment thread over on (u)SP where they’re finally analyzing the transcript of Judge Bridge’s recent rulings, instead of just reading the AP headlines. Some of the most ardent and articulate defenders of Rossi’s lawsuit, are pretty much conceding it’s over.

I haven’t had a chance yet to more than glance at the transcript myself, but the previews sound very encouraging. More later.

UPDATE:
A clarification. The Democrats press release describes its list as “illegal” votes, not “felon” votes. Apparently, the total number includes all of their alleged irregularities, including ballots that should have been counted, but weren’t. The list identifies the voters by precinct, and the court should make it available to the public by Monday or Tuesday. Looking at the numbers, it would seem that like the R’s, the D’s are not including mishandled provisional ballots in their list.

UDATE, UPDATE:
Okay, I’ve been corrected. The list submitted by Dems identifies 743 probable felon votes in 35 counties. It also identifies 1898 provisional ballots counted before verification in 14 counties, not including King. And there are an additional 780 absentee and provisional ballots from King County that are identified as not being counted due to error by election officials.

My bad.

Ooops. I’m a few hours late with this week’s open thread. Enjoy the free for all.

As expected, Microsoft has reversed itself, once again, on the issue of supporting legislation that adds “sexual orientation” to Washington state’s anti-discrimination laws.

Microsoft will formally support efforts to pass gay rights legislation in Washington state, Chief Executive Steve Ballmer told employees today in an e-mail addressing a flap over the company’s earlier decision to take a neutral stance on the issue in Olympia this year.

“Obviously, the Washington state legislative session has concluded for this year, but if legislation similar to HB 1515 is introduced in future sessions, we will support it,” he said.

Ballmer said the company will also continue supporting efforts to pass similar national legislation.

Microsoft fucked up when they withdrew their support from HB 1515, creating the perception that they had bowed to pressure from conservative evangelicals. But they should be congratulated for so quickly atoning for their mistake, and publicly recognizing that discrimination is bad for their employees, their community and their share holders.

This is also a major political victory for the gay community, proving that there is widespread public support for passage of HB 1515. Republican state Senators Luke Esser, Bill FinkBeiner and Dave Schmidt better be paying close attention.

Of course, I don’t expect my righty readers to really give a shit about my election contest analysis; this is after all, an admittedly liberal blog, so a degree of skepticism is warranted. But to totally dismiss my analysis in favor of the partisan cheerleading over at (u)SP, is bound to intensify their disappointment when the final ruling comes down.

And so as a service to my friends on the other side of the ideological divide, I point you towards an editorial in today’s Seattle Times: “The heavy burden for Republicans.” Whatever you might think of the rest of the paper, this is a conservative editorial board that wholeheartedly endorsed Dino Rossi for governor. And so perhaps some might find their reservations about “proportional deduction” a bit more credible than mine.

So Republicans will bring in experts who will use math to describe likely voting patterns.

Likely is an important word. The math makes sense in an academic debate. But listen carefully. The experts speak in terms such as “likely” or “most likely,” or “estimate” or “infer.”

The math can be solid and the conclusion all wet. Bridges must be careful before allowing a dry statistical formula to overturn an election. Invalidating an election surrounded by uncertainty should be done only if a new approach provides greater certainty. Proportional analysis raises as many questions as it answers.

How do we know felons vote like the rest of voters in a given precinct?

Felons tend to be male; men vote differently than women. National studies show felons tend to be minorities and from low-income backgrounds who vote Democratic. Are minorities as big a share of the Washington state felon population as they are nationwide?

Another unknown: Gregoire, as former state attorney general, was the state’s top law-enforcement officer. How did that affect voting preferences of felons and other illegal voters?

This is not partisan Goldy raising these questions, but Frank Blethen’s hand-picked editorial board. So if you want to shoot the messenger, you better stop by Wal-Mart and load up on some ammunition.

For those expecting some snide, sarcastic commentary on Spokane Mayor Jim West’s bombshell of a scandal, don’t think I haven’t considered it. There is something irresistibly ironic about a gay bashing, conservative politician being caught with his pants down (metaphorically,) soliciting sex from young men.

I’ll leave such commentary to others. But I shall resist.

For Mayor West’s personal tragedy, is… well… tragic — not just for the alleged victims who now accuse him of molesting them as children nearly three decades ago — but also for West himself. To ridicule him as a hypocrite — and he most definitely is — might generate the easy laughs of a Leno monologue… but it would miss the point entirely. For the comic irony of his hypocrisy is much less compelling than the tragic irony of a closeted, gay politician trapped and tortured by the very same anti-gay attitudes he pandered to and perpetuated.

Jim West is the poster child for the tragic consequences of a society that condones discrimination against gays: a man so ashamed of who he was that he assumed the mantel of his persecutors… a man so embarrassed by his own sexuality that even after being forced to admit to soliciting sex from young men, he still denies that he is gay.

For those of us who are straight or openly gay, imagine for a moment not being able to express your love in public… unable to take your vows in front of friends and family… never knowing the simple, everyday joy of holding your beloved’s hand as you sit in a restaurant or walk down the street. That is the life that Jim West led… a life so twisted by fear and self-loathing that he felt he could only express his desires through anonymous encounters set up on internet chat rooms… or much, much worse.

No wonder West joined the right-wing moralists in their crusade against sex, for to him it must have always seemed loveless and dirty. What a sad life to live. What a sad lie. Too sad to warrant my usual sarcasm.

Tony Blair and his Labour Party are predicted to win a historic third straight term, according to exit polls… which of course means George W. Bush will be the next British Prime Minister.

God speed.

I’m understandably uncomfortable covering a story about accusations that a public figure molested children. As I have personally learned, such allegations are easy to make and impossible to fully refute. But the story breaking today in The Spokesman-Review about Spokane Mayor Jim West is just too big, too sordid, and too pertinent to ignore: “West tied to sex abuse in ’70s, using office to lure young men.”

For a quarter century, the man who is now Spokane’s mayor has used positions of public trust

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Dems allege more felons
According to a report from the AP, the Democrats now claim to have found 544 felons who illegally voted in predominantly pro-Rossi precincts. The Republicans claim to have identified 946 felon votes, mostly from pro-Gregoire precincts.

If the bulk of these numbers hold up, no effort at rejiggering spreadsheets could possibly produce a Rossi victory.

Reagan Dunn is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life
The Seattle P-I reports that nepotism poster-child Raymond Shaw Reagan Dunn will ask the King County Council to approve a motion of no confidence in Elections Director Dean Logan. Shaw Dunn says he has a “fiduciary responsibility,” or something like that, to grandstand on a motion that has zero chance of passing. For some reason, Council Chairman Larry Phillips comes off as a touch cynical:

“This is a well-orchestrated but thinly disguised attempt by Republican operatives to bring discredit to Dean Logan for the court case.”

Really? Who’d of thunk?

Stefan Sharkansky is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life a prick
In commenting on the Logan and Huennekens depositions, Stefan concludes:

If this isn’t grounds for both voiding the election and sending certain election officials to prison, I can’t imagine what would be.

See… Stefan’s not only a prick, he’s also a coward. He won’t actually come right out and accuse Logan and Huennekens of committing fraud, because that would be libel. Instead, he’s always careful to semantically couch his false accusations, so that the implication is clear, if not literal.

I also find it disturbing… the joy in which some on the right hold the prospect of seeing their political enemies behind bars. Reeks of fascism.

But to his credit, he’s not anonymous.

The truly sad thing about the way Al Gore was cruelly mocked for supposedly claiming to have “invented the Internet,” is not that he never actually said it — politicians expect to be tarred with lies. The sad thing is that perhaps no other politician deserves more credit for supporting the growth and development of the Internet into the incredible economic force it has become today.

It may be too little, too late, but Gore is finally being honored for his contributions.

Al Gore may have been lampooned for taking credit in the Internet’s development, but organizers of the Webby Awards for online achievements don’t find it funny at all.

In part to “set the record straight,” they will give Gore a lifetime achievement award for three decades of contributions to the Internet, said Tiffany Shlain, the awards’ founder and chairwoman.

“It’s just one of those instances someone did amazing work for three decades as congressman, senator and vice president and it got spun around into this political mess,” Shlain said.

Vint Cerf, undisputedly one of the Internet’s key inventors, will give Gore the award at a June 6 ceremony in New York.

“He is indeed due some thanks and consideration for his early contributions,” Cerf said.

Thanks Al.

UPDATE:
The “Love Story” myth came up in the comment thread, so while we’re at it, let’s debunk that one too. Al Gore never said that he and Tipper were the models for the characters in “Love Story”:

For instance, the candidate was ridiculed endlessly after the infamous Love Story flap. Actually, what Gore mentioned to two reporters in an offhand comment was that, according to an old Tennessean article, Love Story author Segal had made that claim. After Gore’s quip, Segal corrected the record by saying that The Tennessean had gotten it wrong, and that both Gore and his Harvard roommate, actor Tommy Lee Jones, had served as models for Love Story ‘s male protagonist, but that Segal did not base any character on Tipper.

You’d think that Republicans would be a bit ashamed at the way they maligned Gore’s character — probably costing him the election — but no… they think it’s quite funny. But then, why bother running on issues when you can just win by defining your enemies as liars, thieves and child molesters?

A quick link to George Howland Jr.’s election contest coverage in The Seattle Weekly. I think he pretty much sums up my take on the election… though in a much more dispassioned voice.

After months of effort by top legal teams, the Republicans, who sued the state and most of the state’s 39 counties, have come up with around 1,000 illegal votes

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Today comes reports in the Times, the P-I and elsewhere of a lawsuit fronted by the the WA State Farm Bureau, and joined by the usual suspects (BIAW, EFF, etc), challenging the Legislature’s invocation of the “emergency clause” in passing an amendment to I-601 that removed the initiative’s extra-constitutional super-majority requirement to raise the state spending limit. The lawsuit’s goal is to toss out $400 million in tax increases from the state budget, plunging the state into a financial crisis.

Hugh Spitzer, arguably our leading scholar on state constitutional law, politely calls the case “a very uphill battle.” I’d say its futile, but since Hugh’s the expert, let’s just go with what he has to say.

Spitzer said such a decision by the court “would create a large mess.” But he doesn’t think that will happen.

The court has given lawmakers broad discretion in determining what constitutes an emergency since a similar case went before the court in the mid-1990s after lawmakers approved a financing package to build a new ballpark for the Seattle Mariners, Spitzer said. There was concern the team would be put up for sale unless the team got a new stadium.

Opponents tried to mount a referendum challenge but were blocked by the use of an emergency clause. The court ruled the Legislature had the right to declare it an emergency.

“Generally, since the stadium case, legislative bodies have had significant flexibility in declaring emergencies,” Spitzer said. “It’s relatively difficult to challenge an emergency clause today based on that case and some other cases.”

The “emergency” was that the Legislature needed to pass a budget. That’s been good enough for the courts before, it’ll be good enough for the courts now. So much for the legal acumen of the knee-jerk, anti-government crowd.

While their legal arguments are pathetic, it’s their rhetorical arguments that really piss me off. Richard Stephens, the coalition’s lead attorney disingenuously echoes the EFF’s patently specious double-speak by arguing that an initiative that barely passed over a decade ago in a low-turnout, off-year election is somehow carved in stone.

“Here’s something the people put into place by initiative and the Legislature undoes it and says the people don’t get to vote on it.”

What a load of crap.

First of all, “the people” have as much opportunity to “vote on it” as they do with any other issue. These anti-government business groups have a track record of getting their own special interest initiatives on the ballot, and they could always run an initiative to reinforce I-601, as Tim Eyman unsuccessfully tried in 2003. Their complaint is really over the fact that the emergency clause prevents them from running a referendum, which requires only half the signatures and thus half the cost. This lawsuit is about money.

Second… what the fuck is so special about I-601?

That $400 million they so desperately want to repeal is targeted mostly at funding the voter approved class size and teacher pay initiatives (I-728 and I-732 respectively.) As I’ve previously and eloquently written on the subject (“EFF supports state income tax!“) the argument that I-601 more clearly expresses the “will of the people” than I-728 or I-732, represents a twisted piece of ass-backwards logic:

Clearly, the EFF believes some voter-approved initiatives should be more inviolate than others. But their criteria for measuring the will of the people appears a bit backwards; examining the margins by which these initiatives passed, a pattern quickly emerges:

    Year   #       Yes Votes
    1993   I-601     774,342 (51%)
    2000   I-728   1,714,485 (72%)
    2000   I-732   1,501,261 (63%)

Hmmm… so let me get this straight… according to the EFF, I-728, which passed by a landslide margin of 72% as recently as 2000, should be sacrificed in the name of I-601, which received nearly a million less votes, barely squeaking by with a 51% margin all the way back in 1993? So logically, I can only assume that the EFF believes that the older the initiative, and the fewer votes it received, the more it represents the true will of the people.

By that measure, I fully expect the EFF to join me in demanding that the Legislature honor the clear and indisputable will of the people, by fully implementing voter-approved Initiative 69… which enacted an income tax way back in 1932.

Let’s put this into perspective… when I-601 passed back in 1993, it garnered nearly 300,000 fewer votes than Eyman’s viciously stupid I-892 received in 2004, when it was trounced by a 62% to 38% margin.

Will of the people… my ass!

The Legislature did what the Legislature had to do, just to keep education funding at a bare minimum level, and if the EFF, BIAW and the others don’t like it, perhaps they should do a better job electing legislators, huh? Put Democrats in charge of the budget, and they’re going to fund the public services the voters want… you know, today’s voters… the folks who elected today’s Legislature… not 51% of some phantom, off-year electorate from way back in 1993. I know the EFF believes we’d all be better off home-schooling our kids or packing them off to private religious schools, rather than wasting taxpayer dollars on public education. So if they think that’s the “will of people”, why aren’t they urging Republicans to run on this platform in an effort to seize control of the Legislature in 2006?

Nahhh. It’s bad politics to be too honest about your agenda… especially when your true agenda is so godawful frightening.

The New York Times reports the stunning news that defying all expectations, consumers can sometimes be rational: “Ford and G.M. Suffer as Buyers Shun S.U.V.’s”

The latest automobile sales figures show that Americans are increasingly wary of gas-thirsty sport utility vehicles. That was particularly bad news for General Motors and the Ford Motor Company, which both saw their sales slip last month as consumers continued their steady march into Asian car companies’ dealerships.
…
General Motors has long maintained that gas prices do not affect how consumers approach buying a car or truck. But on Tuesday, G.M.’s chief industry sales analyst, Paul Ballew, appeared to retreat somewhat from that position, saying that record gas prices were likely playing some role in falling S.U.V. sales.

Ummmm… ya think?

If you think you can listen to my voice without losing your dinner, tune in tonight to the Brian Suits Show on 570-KVI, at 7PM. Brian and I will be discussing blogging, and possibly the recent McCarthyite effort to defame me.

His producer assures me that Brian is big fan of HA. Who’d of thunk?

UPDATE: I’ve been bumped to 7:13PM

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Well, that was fun. Sort of. I hope next time Brian has me on, we get to have more time debating politics, instead of just agreeing on the inviolability of the First Amendment.

[NWPT43] If there’s any indication of how yesterday’s rulings really went, I’d say it’s the predictable judge-bashing already coming from the other blog. I was particularly struck by this thoughtful piece of analysis from one (u)SP regular:

why does Judge Bridge wear an earing? Unless he’s a right wing Harley riding ex hippie I remain nervous about his politics…

Later in the same thread, one of our very own right-wing resident trolls, Jeff B., manages to cut straight through all the bullshit and and convincingly enunciate his own “bloody glove theory” of election fraud:

I suspect that when all is said and done, the outcome will be similar to that of the OJ trial. We all know he did it, but he got off because a very partisan jury was convinced of a reasonable doubt.

For the last time Jeff, even if OJ did vote in Washington’s November election… he was never actually convicted of a felony. (And besides, OJ’s vote would probably have been offset by that of convicted perjurer and Spokane talk radio host, Mark Fuhrman.)

Of course, I would hate to be judged by the content of my blog’s comment threads (I’d probably be judged mentally incompetent.) But this sort of paranoid emotional calculated lashing-out at the courts when decisions don’t go their way is de rigueur in Republican circles these days, and Stefan himself set the tone early when he dismissed Judge Bridges’ ruling on voter-crediting by implying that the Judge hadn’t bothered to read the depositions.

“Oy.”

In what I suppose serves as his final post-hearing analysis, Stefan comes back with a typically constructive critique, focusing on Judge Bridge’s firm statement that “Unless an election is clearly invalid, when the people have spoken, their verdict should not be disturbed by the courts.” To this, Stefan thoughtfully asks:

What might make an election “clearly invalid”?

I don’t know. Hundreds more ballots than voters? Ballots that appeared out of nowhere and were tabulated? Fraudulent ballot accounting statements? Election officials who knew about hundreds of unverified provisional ballots that went into the ballot boxes but somehow forgot to tell the canvassing board?

Maybe something will come up.

Oh… did I say “thoughtfully”…? I sometimes confuse thoughtfulness with sarcasm.

Well, yes Stefan, if you can prove that there were indeed hundreds more ballots than voters, and that ballots fell from the sky and into the Accuvote machines like manna from heaven, and that election officials committed fraud, then yes… the Judge might rule this election “clearly invalid.” But you can’t prove any of these allegations, and that’s why, dollars to doughnuts, Rossi’s attorneys won’t even try during the four days they’ve been alloted to present evidence.

And that is the extent of the post-hearing commentary from the blogosphere’s most celebrated, self-appointed election expert. I’d say that this atypical lack of loquaciousness might suggest that yesterday’s rulings have him feeling a little despondent, or even depressed… but I wouldn’t want to accuse Stefan of suffering from a mental disorder he clearly doesn’t suffer from.

The truth is, it’s hard to generate much spin when somebody nails your rhetorical dreidel to the floor.

And man did Stefan’s rhetoric get hammered yesterday by Judge Bridges… most devastatingly when he definitively ruled that voter crediting is a “post-election administrative exercise” and “does not bear upon the authenticity of election results.” That one ruling flushed months of Stefan’s hard work (and not so hard numbers) down the toilet, and with it, the last vestige of his “total mess” theory.

I can imagine how disappointed Stefan must be. All those tedious, quixotic hours pouring through election documents, compiling databases, and finagling spreadsheets… all those late nights emailing with the BIAW, and early mornings laying out his latest “findings” to the half dozen or so people listening to Mike Siegel at 6:30AM… all that hard work, only to be told by a lowly judge of all people, that he’s been looking at the wrong data set! (I tried to warn you, Stefan… tried to save you from this crushing heartbreak… but would you listen? No!)

Ah well. I had intended to discuss in detail some of my personal observations on how Judge Bridges’ rulings might ultimately effect the outcome of the trial… but it was just too much fun teasing Stefan. More analysis later….

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E…. and I will definitely be there. I invite you all to join me for a couple of pints, and some good conversation.