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Poll Analysis: Obama leads Santorum

by Darryl — Monday, 2/20/12, 9:31 pm


Obama Santorum
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 356 electoral votes Mean of 182 electoral votes

Several weeks A week and a half ago, former Sen. Rick Santorum surpassed former Gov. Mitt Romney in the national polling to become the presumptive front-runner in the G.O.P. primary contest. In fact, Santorum has led Romney in the past six consecutive polls since February 9th. Santorum has led by double digits in the last two (here and here).

So why am I just now getting around to the first analysis of state head-to-head polls for a match-up with President Barack Obama? In fact, I’ve been ready to go for weeks now. The problem is that there is a scarcity of polling data for Mr. Santorum. It seems pollsters have, until very recently, considered Santorum one of the least likely nominees in what was once a crowded G.O.P. field.

To quantify it, I have one or more polls in 37 states (plus each of Nebraska’s three congressional districts) for Newt Gingrich. But, after throughly scouring the the intertubes for polls, I only find polling for 18 states that match up Obama and Santorum (and no polls for Nebraska’s CDs). I’ve been waiting a couple of weeks for more polling, and the wait has not gone unrewarded. In the past 9 days, 13 of 19 polls have included an Obama–Santorum match-up, some of those polls are state firsts.

What do we do with states for which there is no polling? As described in the FAQ, I average the 2004 and 2008 elections according to Democratic and Republican percentages. The winner wins the state in each of the simulations. What this rule means statistically is that the results are underdispersed—that is, the distribution of electoral votes is narrower (and lumpier) than it would be if we had polling data for the “missing” states. The problem will correct itself as more polling data come in.

Here’s the result for today. A Monte Carlo analysis using the state head-to-head polls gives Obama a victory in each of the 100,000 simulated elections. Obama receives (on average) 349 to Santorum’s 189 electoral votes.

Earlier today, I did similar analyses for Gingrich and Romney:

  • Obama v. Santorum: 349 to 189
  • Obama v. Gingrich: 397 to 141
  • Obama v. Romney: 331 to 207

This summary shows that Santorum performs much better against Obama than Newt Gingrich, but a little worse than Mitt Romney.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations. That’s a pretty lumpy distribution, largely reflecting uncertainty in Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania:

[Read more…]

32 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney gains slightly on Obama

by Darryl — Monday, 2/20/12, 8:12 pm


Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes Mean of 207 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 348 to 190 electoral votes and a probability of beating Romney of 99.989%—that is, Romney won 11 of the 100,000 simulated elections.

Now nine new polls weigh in on the race:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Rasmussen 08-Feb 16-Feb 500 4.5 57 35 O+22
IA Iowa Poll 12-Feb 15-Feb 800 3.5 44 46 R+2
MA Suffolk 11-Feb 15-Feb 500 — 53.0 39.3 O+13.7
MI PPP 10-Feb 12-Feb 560 4.1 54 38 O+16
NM Rasmussen 14-Feb 14-Feb 500 4.5 55 36 O+19
OH Fox News 11-Feb 13-Feb 505 4.5 38 44 R+6
TX U Texas 08-Feb 15-Feb 529 4.3 36 49 R+13
WA Elway 07-Feb 09-Feb 405 5.0 49 38 O+11
WA SurveyUSA 13-Feb 15-Feb 572 4.2 49.9 39.2 O+10.7

The polls in California, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Washington are unsurprising in giving Obama double-digit leads. Same for Romney’s double-digit lead in Texas.

The New Mexico poll is, perhaps, a little surprising in giving Obama a +19% lead. But, really, Obama’s lead has been rock-solid in the four NM polls taken to date:

ObamaRomney20Jan12-20Feb12New Mexico

Romney leads Obama by +2 in Iowa. My hunch is that this is an outlier, given the polling to date and that this result comes from a non-mainstream pollster:

ObamaRomney20Jan12-20Feb12Iowa

The Ohio poll, giving Romney a +6% edge over Obama, reverses the trend mentioned in the previous analysis (see the graph there). Overall, Obama still leads in Ohio because there are four current polls that, combined, give Obama a 51% to 49% edge. Indeed, Obama won Ohio in 85% of the simulated elections.

With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis (100,000 simulated state elections, each contributing to an electoral college election) has Obama winning 99,868 times. Now Romney wins 132 times, suggesting that Obama would win an election held now with a 99.9% probability. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes, a gain of +17 votes for Romney.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

1 Stoopid Comment

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 2/10/12, 11:58 pm

What the Koch Brothers say on-line but won’t say under oath.

Bashir: With Congressional approval at 10%, Republicans intensify anti-Obama attacks.

It began five years ago today:

Jennifer Granholm: Michigan rebounds thanks to ‘active’ leadership.

Bill Maher: New Rules.

White House: Science fair.

The Delicious G.O.P. Primary

  • ONN: GOP introduces new “Mystery Candidate” with paper bag over head
  • Young Turks: Santorum’s Hat-Rick
  • Buzz 60: Santorum sweeps all three!!!
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Santorum and women’s emotions.
  • Young Turks: Santorum claims Obama is destroying religious liberty, families.
  • Sam Seder: Santorum compares health care to an iPad.
  • Young Turks: Low GOP turnout helps Santorum.
  • Maddow: Rick Santorum’s billionaire benefactor (pt. I)
  • Maddow: Rick Santorum’s billionaire benefactor (pt. II)
  • Young Turks: Rick Santorum on women in the military.
  • Newsy: Santorum sweep reveals Romney campaign trouble.
  • Mitt Romney: The web influence.
  • Maddow: Mitt’s 4 year anniversary.
  • One Minute News: Romney’s 1983 dog-on-the-roof story surfaces again.
  • Mitt: “We’re on the same page and same verse” as the Ryan plan to privatize Medicare
  • Sharpton: MITTion Impossible (or Willard’s Woes).
  • Actual audio: Mitt loves America.
  • Mitt Romney: What will he say today?
  • Bashir: Why conservatives don’t trust Willard.
  • Mitt’s Hits!
  • Sam Seder: Paul double dips on expense reimbursements.
  • Ed and Pap: Newt’s new Southern Strategy.
  • Sam Seder: Ron Paul Fan, “He’s not a bigot, you Jew!”.
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Mitt Romney’s believe it or not.

White House: West Wing Week.

Mark Fiore: The heart and mind-o-matic.

ONN: Panel analyzes Obama’s furious, profanity-filled rant at nation.

Thom: Are politicians now SuperPAC puppets?

The Week in Marriage Equality:

  • Newsy: WA passes same-sex marriage law.
  • Young Turks: Rep. Maureen Walsh’s (R) heartfelt speech to the WA House of Representatives.
  • One Minute News: Prop-8 ruling stay.

Newsy: Pelosi’s “stop Colbert” spoof ad goes viral.

Pap: How the GOP war on workers backfired.

Lobbyist poses as anti-union mechanic in Superbowl advertisement.

Maddow: The absurdity of GOP legislators rallying against ideas they previously supported:

Andrew Breitbart totally loses it at Occupy protesters.

Thom with the Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Contraceptive Choice:

  • Jennifer Granholm: WWJD about birth control debate?
  • Sam Seder: Catholic Bishops attack on contraception…which 98% of Catholics use.
  • Alyona: The MSM’s birth control hysteria.
  • Ann Telnaes: Playing with women’s private lives.
  • Young Turks: Reasonable compromise.
  • Obama speaks on contraception accomodation.
  • Ed: Republican War on women’s health heats up.
  • Jennifer Granholm: Obama’s reasonable compromise.
  • Ed and Pap: Republicans hope culture war will re-ignite base.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: GOP is fucking INSANE over birth control.
  • Sam Seder and Markos: Contraceptive compromise.
  • Obama: Contraception.
  • Thom: It’s about health care, not bad Catholics.
  • Ann Telnaes: The Catholic church reaches outside its flock.
  • Newsy: Obama announces birth control compromise.

An interview with Jay Inslee.

Alyona: Time for a national popular vote?

Hannity’s Bizarre Claim:

  • Ed: Fox’s ‘syphilitic liar’ Sean Hannity says that ‘Obama didn’t want bin Laden dead!’.
  • Young Turks: Hannity’s bizarre theory that Obama wishes bin Laden was alive.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Buffoon Donald Trump thinks endorsing Romney guarantees him a position in Willard’s cabinet!.

Pres. Obama’s record on jobs:

Ed: Update on the Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) scandal.

The CPAC Funny Farm:

  • Young Turks: Herman Cain on “stupid people”.
  • Alyona: CPAC’s freedom for some.
  • The CPAC Carnival for Conservatives.
  • Embarassing: FAUX News contributer’s rap video at CPAC.
  • Sharpton: Juvenile taunts at CPAC.
  • Mitt Romney: Then and now (at CPAC).
  • Young Turks: Gay Republicans not welcomed at CPAC.
  • One Minute News: So you want to be a Conservative.
  • Alyona’s happy hour: cruising for gay sex at CPAC
  • Ed: CPAC starts with juvenile attacks on Obama.
  • Buzz 60: Santorum and Romney battle for CPAC love
  • Young Turks: CPAC dating seminar.
  • Sam Seder: State Sen. Constance Johnson (D-Oklahoma City) on he amendment to a Wingnut personhood bill .

    Ann Telnaes: Russia and China reject U.N. resolution condemning Syria.

    Obama and the marshmallow launcher.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    18 Stoopid Comments

    Poll Analysis: Obama gains a bit more on Romney

    by Darryl — Thursday, 2/9/12, 9:43 pm

    [Update: An analysis with more recent polling data can be found here.

    I said in the previous analysis that a new poll was about to be released in South Carolina. It was. Unfortunately, they didn’t poll the presidential race. Too bad…now I’ll have to endure “I don’t believe the S.C. results” in comment threads and forums across the intertubes.

    Folks, there was a recent very large (2100+ person) poll taken in South Carolina…and Obama led Romney. Maybe the pollster got unlucky; just maybe the lead was real. Either way, nobody will be surprised if the lead turns out to be transient.

    With that off my chest, there are seven new polls released since the previous analysis:

    start end sample % % %
    st poll date date size MOE O R diff
    CT Yankee Institute 01-Feb 02-Feb 500 4.5 50 37 O+13
    IL Tribune/WGN-TV 02-Feb 06-Feb 600 4.0 56 35 O+21
    MN SurveyUSA 31-Jan 02-Feb 542 4.3 48.8 36.1 O+12.7
    NC PPP 03-Feb 05-Feb 1052 3.0 47 46 O+1
    OH Rasmussen 08-Feb 08-Feb 500 4.5 45 41 O+4
    PA Susquehanna 02-Feb 06-Feb 500 3.5 43 45 R+2
    VA Quinnipiac 01-Feb 06-Feb 1544 2.5 47 43 O+4

    We cannot profess any surprise in Obama’s lead in the Connecticut (+13%), Illinois (+21%), and Minnesota (+12.7%) races.

    Two swing states weight in. Ohio gives Obama a slender +4% lead. This means Obama has led in all three Ohio polls taken this year. And in Pennsylvania, Romney has a slenderer +2% lead. Nevertheless, a Keystone poll taken a couple of weeks ago had Obama leading 41% to 30%. Since both polls are considered “current” [FAQ], they are pooled and Obama ends up on top…for now.

    The South turns in a couple of pleasant surprises for Team Obama. In Virginia, Obama is up by +4% over Romney. The only other Virginia poll taken this year also has Obama up (+1).

    North Carolina seems to be leaning toward Obama (+1%). There are two other NC polls taken this year. A recent Civitas poll has Romney up +9. I should point out that Civitas is a conservative think tank, but their polls were okay in 2008. An early January PPP poll in NC had Obama up by +1. But only the two most recent polls are considered “current”, so Romney leads in North Carolina.

    The previous analysis found Obama with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then, and a mean of 335 electoral votes to Romney’s 203.

    With the seven new polls included, a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 99,804 wins and Romney 196 wins (including the 21 ties). That suggests Obama has a 99.8% probability of winning an election held now. On average, Obama gains nine additional electoral votes: 344 to Romney’s 194.

    Obama Romney
    99.8% probability of winning 0.2% probability of winning
    Mean of 344 electoral votes Mean of 194 electoral votes

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
    [Read more…]

    14 Stoopid Comments

    Drug War Roundup

    by Lee — Wednesday, 2/8/12, 9:41 pm

    This past Monday I moderated the Cannabis Defense Coalition’s monthly public meeting for February. Here’s a short rundown of what’s been happening locally with drug law reform:

    – The CDC is opposing the medical marijuana bill currently in the state Senate (SB 6265). The bill was introduced in response to the mess caused by Governor Gregoire’s veto last year. After that bill took effect, a number of smaller communities across the state were under the false impression that they could ban the 10-person collective gardens that the law allowed. And larger communities like Seattle and Tacoma were upset that dispensaries weren’t legitimized enough to start regulating them adequately.

    This bill found a way to split that difference. It would allow for “non-profit patient cooperatives” that are by default legal in any county or city with more than 200,000 people, but by default illegal in any county or city with less than 200,000 people. It also allows a jurisdiction to limit the number of people in a collective garden to 3.

    The CDC is concerned that access to medical marijuana will once again become extremely difficult for rural patients in the state, but that’s not their only concern. As Steve Elliott points out, the bill would also create a patient registry, a non-starter for CDC members who have major concerns about the government maintaining a list of people who are breaking federal law. This is compounded by the fact that the federal government has also been actively trying to eliminate the gun-ownership rights of medical marijuana patients.

    Not mentioned by the CDC, the “Save 502” clause was removed, meaning that if a 5ng/ml limit passes along with I-502 this year, there will be no protection for patients who test above the limit for medical reasons.

    – As for New Approach Washington’s I-502, it has qualified for the November ballot. Due to its DUI language, it’s still expected that a large number of medical marijuana patients will vote against the bill, and some plan to actively campaign against it. During Monday’s meeting, there was discussion about Washington State Police initiating training for how to handle marijuana DUI cases. There was also a claim that the number of marijuana DUI arrests have been going up recently, but haven’t seen any actual numbers to back that up yet.

    The topic of marijuana DUI continues to be an extremely difficult political hurdle for legalization advocates. What happens in 2012 will likely dictate how future initiatives handle the topic.

    – While Sensible Washington has opted out of trying to run its own statewide marijuana legalization initiative in 2012, they’ve announced that they’ll be working as part of a broad effort to pass local initiatives in various communities around the state. These initiatives will be similar to the “lowest law enforcement priority” initiatives that have already passed in Tacoma and Seattle, but will also make it illegal for local and state police to work with the federal government in the enforcement of medical marijuana laws.

    – Finally, while the success of the gay marriage bill doesn’t have a direct impact on drug policy, it might have an interesting indirect one. If a referendum on the gay marriage bill is filed and makes the ballot, you could see an increase in the fundamentalist vote in November, something that might not bode well for I-502.

    1 Stoopid Comment

    Poll Analysis: Obama holds his lead over Romney

    by Darryl — Monday, 2/6/12, 7:07 pm

    Update: An analysis with more recent polls can be found here.

    Since the previous analysis, we have some new state head-to-head polls to throw into the analysis. One of them changes a state from red to blue.

    start end sample % % %
    st poll date date size MOE O R diff
    MT Public Opinion Strategies 09-Jan 10-Jan 400 4.9 36 53 R+17
    NH U NH 25-Jan 02-Feb 495 4.4 50 40 O+10
    NY Siena 29-Jan 01-Feb 807 3.4 63 31 O+32

    Today’s Montana poll isn’t really new…just new to me. It puts Mitt Romney up by +17% over President Barack Obama. A newly released New York poll has Obama up by +32% over Romney.

    The interesting poll comes from New Hampshire. Romney has led Obama in New Hampshire in at least 11 prior polls. The new Granite State poll shows Obama leading Romney by +10%—quite a turn-around!

    ObamaRomney06Jan12-06Feb12New Hampshire

    The result is surprising, and I’ll remain a little skeptical until it is verified by a similar finding. (Speaking of surprising results, I am expecting a new South Carolina poll to be released sometime this week….)

    With the new polls weighing in, Obama has gained very slightly. From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama gains +0.2% in his probability of winning (in an election held now) for a 99.6% overall probability. He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.

    Obama Romney
    99.6% probability of winning 0.4% probability of winning
    Mean of 335 electoral votes Mean of 203 electoral votes

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
    [Read more…]

    10 Stoopid Comments

    Superbowl open thread

    by Darryl — Sunday, 2/5/12, 3:44 pm

    There is some football game on or something. I’m busy doing work stuff this afternoon and, frankly, when I woke up this morning, I didn’t even know who was playing. I guess I can have the game it on as background noise.

    If, like me, you don’t have a teevee, Westwood one affiliates will carry the game. In the Seattle area, you can find it on 950 on the AM dial.

    Anyway…snark away in the comment threads if you wish.

    3:45: Somebody scored a basket.

    3:50: Did Tom Cruise just score?

    3:53: Damn…Redmond’s best Thai restaurant has closed.

    3:56: Meanwhile, the score in Nevada (via Nevada GOP):

    Current #NVCaucus results with 72.9% of precincts reporting: Gingrich: 22.3%, Paul: 18.6%, Romney: 48.1%, Santorum 10.9%, No Vote: 0.2%

    72.9% complete? Have they run out of fingers?

    4:18: From Twitopia:

    Ana Marie Cox @anamariecox
    “Illegal huddle” also something Santorum has campaigned against. #SuperBowl

    4:25: Is this USA Today headline a double entendre? Brown student uncovers lost Malcolm X speech.

    4:50: Poll Analysis: Patriots ahead of Giants by +1 halfway through contest.

    5:19: From Twitopia:

    Newt Gingrich Ideas @GingrichIdeas
    Use Madonna’s outfit as a model for my Moon Emperor uniform.

    5:48: Clearly, Obama has won over the hearts and minds and companies of Detroit:

    5:59: Rush Limbaugh goes “green”.

    6:00: Remember Shrub’s “sporting” moment? What is it about Wingnuts going nostril spelunking during sporting events? Do they think they’re digging for gold? Or do they imagine themselves wiping out poor people?

    6:11: The National Football League can admit, seat, entertain for 3+ hours, and clear out 68,658 people in far less time than it takes the Nevada GOP to tally votes for some 35,000 caucus-goers?

    6:51: It’s over. The Yankees win…again.

    24 Stoopid Comments

    Nevada caucus open thread

    by Darryl — Saturday, 2/4/12, 4:43 pm

    It is a beautiful day in the Puget Sound region, so I don’t know how many people will be around here this evening. In any case, Nevada caucus results should come in sometime after 5:00 pm.

    I should be able to do some commentary.

    Have at it in the comment thread.

    4:43: Turnout seems to be down in at least one county:

    The GOP presidential caucus attracted about 6,700 voters on Saturday [in Washoe County], down from the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 that showed up for the presidential caucus in 2008….

    4:46: Live updates are supposed to be available at CNN. It isn’t working for me yet.

    4:51: The most recent poll in Nevada that I’ve found is this one from PPP:

    • Romney 50%
    • Gingrich 25%
    • Paul 15%
    • Santorum 8%

    5:00: It’s five and CNN is still just showing a scenery shot with no audio.

    5:05: Here is the Nevada GOP web page.

    5:06: With only Eureka County reporting results are (4% reporting):

    • Romney 34.3%
    • Gingrich 30.3%
    • Paul 18.2%
    • Santorum 17.2%

    5:09: Pershing County weighs in. Both counties combined. Romney stretches his lead over Gingrich, and Paul slips behind Santorum.

    • Romney 41.7%
    • Gingrich 27.0%
    • Santorum 15.9%
    • Paul 15.5%

    5:13: Now we have Churchill County. Romney strengthens his lead. Santorum spurts out ahead of Ron Paul.

    • Romney 45.9%
    • Gingrich 20.8%
    • Santorum 17.7%
    • Paul 15.5%

    5:34: Nye and Mineral Counties report. Ron Paul surges ahead of Gingrich:

    • Romney 36.7%
    • Paul 29.6%
    • Gingrich 19.7%
    • Santorum 12.9%

    5:44: Cool…I found the code to embed the results tool….
    [Read more…]

    16 Stoopid Comments

    A real case of voting fraud found: Indiana’s Republican SOS

    by Darryl — Saturday, 2/4/12, 12:51 am

    Wingnuts believe in voter fraud the way they believe cutting revenues increases revenues. For them, the topic of voter fraud induces apoplectic foaming at the mouth the way a good Pentecostal revival induces intense spells of speaking in tongues.

    And it’s bizarre because actual cases of voter fraud are few and far between.

    Well…we now have one more example—someone who has actually been convicted of voter fraud.

    I know it is totally “impossible” to believe but the voting fraudster is a Republican.

    Not just any Republican, but Charlie White, former chairman of the Republican Party in Hamilton County [Indiana]. Oh…and current Secretary of State.

    So, just keep in mind, when a Republican gets all alarmist about voter fraud, they are likely engaging in an exercise of psychological projection—they are expressing fears of what they would do if they had the opportunity.

    An interesting question is what will happen now in Indiana. Indiana law requires the removal of public officers convicted of a felony, and the Governor gets to appoint the replacement.

    The Governor—that would be Republican Governor Mitch Daniels—presumably has the power to appoint at his pleasure. But….

    Separately, a Marion County judge in December ruled that White was not eligible to run for secretary of state in 2010 because he was not properly registered at his own address. White has been allowed to stay in office while he appeals that ruling.

    The Marion County judge ruled that the Democrat White defeated by more than 340,000 votes in 2010, Vop Osili, should be declared the winner of the election.

    This is going to get real interesting!

    14 Stoopid Comments

    Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Gingrich

    by Darryl — Friday, 2/3/12, 5:05 pm

    [Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]

    Five new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis of a hypothetical election contest between Pres. Barack Obama and former Speaker Newt Gingrich:

    start end sample % % %
    st poll date date size MOE O G diff
    FL Marist 25-Jan 27-Jan 2795 1.9 52 35 O+17
    FL Mason-Dixon 24-Jan 26-Jan 800 3.5 41 50 G+9
    GA SurveyUSA 01-Feb 02-Feb 1144 3.0 43.9 49.7 G+5.9
    MO PPP 27-Jan 29-Jan 582 4.1 49 42 O+7
    OH PPP 28-Jan 29-Jan 820 3.4 51 39 O+12

    The two most recent Florida polls contradict each other. One gives Obama a +17% edge, and the other puts Gingrich up by +9%.

    In Georgia, Gingrich has a +5.9% edge over Obama. That’s pretty anemic, considering that (1) it is Gingrich’s home turf, and (2) the same poll puts Romney up about +8 over Obama.

    Obama has modest leads over Gingrich in Missouri (+7%) and a solid (+12%) lead in Ohio.

    The previous analysis gave Obama a 100% probability of beating Gingrich with Obama getting a mean of 416 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins ’em all. Obama’s average electoral vote count has increased to 421, and Gingrich averages just 117 electoral votes.

    Obama Gingrich
    100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
    Mean of 421 electoral votes Mean of 117 electoral votes

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
    [Read more…]

    6 Stoopid Comments

    Obama gains more ground on Romney

    by Darryl — Thursday, 2/2/12, 10:18 pm

    Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.

    There are three new state head-to-head polls in the Obama—Romney match up since my previous analysis. All three states are important.

    The Florida poll offers Obama a +8% edge over Romney. In Missouri, Obama and Romney are tied at 45%, and in Ohio Obama leads Romney by +7%.

    start end sample % % %
    st poll date date size MOE O R diff
    FL Marist 25-Jan 27-Jan 2795 1.9 49 41 O+8
    MO PPP 27-Jan 29-Jan 582 4.1 45 45 tie
    OH PPP 28-Jan 29-Jan 820 3.4 49 42 O+7

    All three polls reflect improvements over the previous poll in each state for Obama. It’s hard to tell if the improvements are a bump from Obama’s State of the Union address, a genuine lasting shift in public opinion, or whether voters are simply tiring of the Republican brawl.

    After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,439 times and Romney wins 561 times (including the 30 ties).

    Obama would have a 99.4% probability of winning an election held now, an improvement over his 95.1% probability in the previous analysis.

    Obama Romney
    99.4% probability of winning 0.6% probability of winning
    Mean of 332 electoral votes Mean of 206 electoral votes

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

    [Read more…]

    15 Stoopid Comments

    Florida Results Live-Blog

    by Lee — Tuesday, 1/31/12, 4:14 pm

    Florida handles its elections the way Seattle handles its snowstorms. They know that big ones happen every few years, but they never seem prepared for them. I’m still at the office, but will be leaving in the next hour for the Ale House where I plan to live blog with Darryl. I’ll also likely be getting updates from my old college roommate, Dan, a former Republican living in Miami who’s been complaining to me this week that he’s needed a Hazmat suit to open his mailbox.

    This is an open thread…

    [4:40] One other thing that Dan mentioned was that the Cuban community refers to Ron Paul as “El Loco”. El Loco seems to be getting about 7% of the votes counted so far.

    [5:22] Finally at the Ale House only to find out that Darryl fucked up the Live blog plan. Jeez.

    [5:26] No sound on the TV. It’s set to CNN, so it’s not necessary.

    [5:31] Romney won this thing in a landslide, but Newt won among white evangelicals, once again demonstrating that morally repulsive infidelity can be forgiven by the religious right as long as you act like an entitled asshole whenever asked about it.

    [5:34] Romney is speaking. I can’t hear it, but I’m guessing he’s firing people on his staff, just out of habit.

    [5:37] In re: to Darryl. But I regret both votes equally! Consistency!

    [5:52] Rick Santorum being interviewed in Las Vegas where he’s already preparing for his 4th place finish there.

    [5:53] I swear to god, I’ve known Darryl for 8 years, but if he shaved his beard, I’d never recognize him.

    [6:01] How Ron Paul could have a huge win in Virginia.

    [6:07] Newt waddles to the podium. Every Democrat in the country quietly cheers him on.

    [6:12] Yep

    [6:18] For once, the most cartoonish thing happening in Orlando is not at Disney World.

    [6:20] Newt just dominated the panhandle. If the rest of the south votes that way, there will be a lot of disappointed southerners when Mitt is nominated.

    [6:22] Darryl is listening to NPR now on his giant headphones. I’m no longer in contention for the biggest geek in the bar. I concede.

    [6:24] Carl just walked in. He’s rocking a good beard too, in about 10 years, it could look as good as Darryl’s.

    [6:25] Carl: “Does this mean we’re not going to have a moon colony?”

    [6:36] Ron Paul speaking in Nevada. That state could be interesting. Both Romney and Paul beat McCain there in 2008.

    [6:46] Without sound, I have no idea what John King is doing. Is he predicting a Ron Paul win in Washington?

    [6:49] Dan has surfaced in the comments. Hey man, this is for you.

    [6:57] Dan explains why Mitt won and why one of the nation’s most notorious white collar criminals is now their governor.

    [7:02] Romney did really well with Latino voters. Unfortunately for him, Florida is the only state where Latinos vote for Republicans.

    [7:04] N in Seattle is here. All we need is Goldy for the full HA.

    [7:05] Will Kelley-Kamp is now here too. Sweet. Live-blogging is likely to slow to a crawl here…

    [7:11] Dammit Darryl!! Fix this!

    [7:18] I want to send Will to Iran. He needs $3,000. Make your pledges now!

    [7:31] Just chatting with Will about how insane it is that Ralph Reed still goes on TV as a representative of the religious right. If Jesus were alive today, I doubt he’d be able to turn the other cheek on that crook.

    [7:47] That’s it for me. Will is doing stand-up on Monday nights at Seattle Comedy Underground. It’s $5 for two hours of comedy. Come check him out and say you’re there to see Will Kelley.

    37 Stoopid Comments

    Open Thread: Rubberneckin’ Florida

    by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/31/12, 3:56 pm

    It’s a clusterfuck down there. But somehow you just can’t help but gawk at the carnage.

    Yep…we’re talking Florida, where Mitt Romney is prepared to slam Newt Gingrich to the matt—revenge for South Carolina.

    I’m at the Montlake Alehouse, and maybe Lee and Carl will show up and partake of the live-gawking.

    Have at it in the comment threads.

    5:00: CNN just called it for Mitt Romney, 48% to Gingrich’s 31%, Santorum’s 13%, and Paul’s 7%. 56% of the vote is in, so that pretty much seals the deal. No Iowa repeat here, folks.

    5:01: That was fast.

    5:04: Is the race over? Is Romney the nominee? My inclination is to say, “yes”. I’ve been saying that for awhile. But then some ground truth emerges….

    5:05: New polls released today:

    • Missouri Primary poll: Gingrich 30, Santorum 28, Romney 24, Paul 11. Missouri hates Romney!!!
    • Ohio Primary poll:Gingrich 26, Romney 25, Santorum 22, Paul 11. Ohio likes Gingrich a little better than Romney.
    • National GOP Primary poll:Gingrich 28, Romney 27, Santorum 17, Paul 13. America seems to prefer Gingrich a little over Romeny

    It ain’t over yet!

    5:11: Don’t forget about the Oregon special election tonight. We’ll be anxiously awaiting those results.

    5:22: Okay…so Lee is here and he started a competing thread to liveblog the results. This has now become an HA primary contest. Who will get the most comments? Just to be a good sport, I put his post on top. See what a great guy and good sport I am? Please leave a comment HERE if you agree.

    5:32: Lee writes, “Finally at the Ale House only to find out that Darryl fucked up the Live blog plan.” Oh, man, after all Lee and I have been through. I feel just like Dominic.

    5:35: As long as we are engaging in negative campaigning here, I though I would point out that in 2004, Lee voted for Dino Rossi. But voted for Gregoire in 2008. What a flip-flopper!

    5:59: The next primary event is the Nevada caucus. Most of last year, Romney has led Gingrich by double digits in Nevada. That was through last October. The only more recent poll is this poll taken in mid-December. That poll has Romney leading Gingrich by +4%. Nevada may end up being more interesting than Florida!

    6:04: As my opponent (Lee) mentions, the sound is off on CNN here at the Montlake Alehouse. We just had about 30 minutes of Santorum on the screen. What the fuck, CNN? That’s just disgusting!

    6:06: Even though I am watching CNN, I am listening to NPR. Reporter in Florida just points out what a big win this is, “It’s the first state where [Romney] doesn’t have a house in the state or where he governed the neighboring state.”

    6:08: Lee responds to the previous comment: “He doesn’t have a house in Florida?!?

    6:10: Newt takes the stage, but more importantly, I see three comments on this thread and two on Lee’s thread. You LIKE ME! You REALLY LIKE ME!!!

    6:11: There are two great things about Newt being in the race. First, he is one nasty motherfucker. Second, he has tons of baggage. When Newt first started boasting about running (in Dec 2010), I wrote:

    But mostly it [a Gingrich run] would be fun for the memories: Contract with America, government shutdown, impeachment over a blow job. And there is, of course, that scarcely explored aspect of Newt life: his marriages:

    Gingrich has been married three times. In 1962, he married Jackie Battley, his former high school geometry teacher, when he was 19 years old and she was 26. They had two daughters. In the spring of 1980, Gingrich left Battley after having an affair with Marianne Ginther. According to Battley, Gingrich visited her while she was in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery to discuss the details of their divorce. Six months after it was final, Gingrich wed Ginther in 1981.

    In the mid-1990s, Gingrich began an affair with House of Representatives staffer Callista Bisek, who is 23 years his junior; they continued their affair during the Lewinsky scandal. In 2000, Gingrich married Bisek shortly after his divorce from second wife Ginther.

    The blogosphere really hasn’t had the opportunity to explore this side of Gingrich’s life. It’s fucking gold!

    6:31: What I REALLY want to know is what Roger Rabbit thinks of tonight’s events. And yesterday’s. And maybe the entire week before. Roger?

    6:34: Carl Ballard is here. He notices that at the Ron Paul speech there are three guys on stage…one with a bow tie, one with a regular tie, and one with no tie whatsoever. And they say there is no diversity amongst Republicans.

    6:38: At least Ron Paul isn’t wearing a fucking sweater vest. (Carl is.)

    6:46: The TeeVee tells me that “there are eight Santorum delegates.” Word to the wise: Be careful if you use the words “eight Santorum” in a conversation.

    7:08: Damn! Lee is kicking my ass. But somehow his post got pushed back…. Clearly WE’VE BEEN HACKED!

    7:12: Let’s see…we have me, Lee, N In Seattle, Carl Ballard, and Will showed up recently…Goldy is supposed to show up soon. The Montlake Alehouse has become a freakin’ HA class reunion!

    7:18: Carl here. I’m not endorsing in this thread, but I’m opposed to typing on Darryl’s tiny computer. I guess I won’t get my passport stamped “Moon” any time soon.

    7:24: Carl still. Rick Santorum is on CNN, and like Ron Paul, he’s also not wearing a tie. What the fuck? You’re on TV guys!

    7:46: Darryl here…I’ve wrestled my computer (with its tiny little keyboard) back from Carl Ballard. Right now Seattle Jew is pontificating about Mormon church ownership of The Media. I notice that he speaks with as many typos as he writes with.

    7:51: Goldy finally arrives. I guess the folks at The Stranger are done wringing whatever use they can get out him tonight to increase their page views.

    8:15: Oregon Special Election: OR-1:

    • Rob Cornilles (R) 53,215 37.52%
    • Suzanne Bonamici (D) 79,386 55.97%

    11 Stoopid Comments

    Poll Analysis: Obama moves into a “significant” lead over Romney

    by Darryl — Saturday, 1/28/12, 11:11 pm

    [Update: An analysis using some newer polls can be found here.]

    Since the previous analysis in this race, five new state head-to-head polls representing four states have been released.

    start end sample % % %
    st poll date date size MOE O R diff
    FL Mason-Dixon 24-Jan 26-Jan 800 3.5 44 48 R+4
    FL Quinnipiac 19-Jan 23-Jan 1518 2.5 45 45 tie
    MI EPIC/MRA 21-Jan 25-Jan 600 4.0 48 40 O+8
    MN PPP 21-Jan 22-Jan 1236 2.8 51 41 O+10
    PA Keystone Poll 17-Jan 22-Jan 614 4.0 41 30 O+11

    Two new polls come from Florida, where the media markets are currently flooded with Republican primary ads. The newest poll from Mason-Dixon gives Romney a small +4% lead over Obama. The slightly older Quinnipiac poll has the race all tied up at 45% a piece.

    In Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney by an impressive +11%. That’s even better than Michigan, where Obama leads Romney by +8% in the new poll. The Pennsylvania poll is more favorable to Obama than the newest Minnesota poll that has Obama up by +10%

    In the previous analysis, Obama would have won with a 71.9% probability, and his average electoral vote total was 284 to Romney’s 254.

    Now, a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama an expected electoral vote total of 306 to Romney’s 232 for an election held now. Obama is at a 95.1% probability of winning that hypothetical election to Romney’s 4.9%. By traditional statistical inference, we would say Obama’s lead is “significant”—that is, it’s unlikely to be due to sampling error.

    Obama Romney
    95.1% probability of winning 4.9% probability of winning
    Mean of 306 electoral votes Mean of 232 electoral votes

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    [Read more…]

    19 Stoopid Comments

    Obama v. Gingrich — 2012


    Obama Gingrich
    100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
    Mean of 397 electoral votes Mean of 141 electoral votes

    It has been over two weeks since the previous analysis of the Obama–Gingrich match-up using state head-to-head polls. This is largely because Newt Gingrich’s second lead over Mitt Romney in the national G.O.P. primary polls was rather transient—even more fleeting than his late-2011 lead.

    As the life is sucked out of the Gingrich campaign, these analyses become less relevant. A telltale sign of a dying campaign is when pollsters no longer include a candidate in its state head-to-head polls. That has begun to happen for Gingrich. Rasmussen polled Romeny and Santorum, but not Gingrich, in its most recent Florida, New Mexico, and California polls. A Civitas poll in North Carolina and a WBUR poll in Massachusetts did the same. A recent Elway poll in Washington only reported results for Romney.

    So, for President’s day, here is an analysis for Gingrich. This may be Newt’s last. I’ll also post an update for Romney, and post Santorum’s very first analysis.

    The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama with 100% probability of beating Gingrich, and leading by (on average) 421 to 117 electoral votes.

    Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins 100,000 times (i.e. Obama has 100% probability of beating Gingrich in an election held now). Obama receives (on average) 397 to Gingrich’s 141 electoral votes.

    That newt gains in average electoral votes while losing steam in the primary is because polling is so infrequent at this point. We are now seeing the “fruits” of Gingrich’s surge two months ago.

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
    [Read more…]

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