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Obamacareapalooza. Liveblogging the reaction.

by Darryl — Thursday, 6/28/12, 9:06 am

8:58: I am listening to Mitt Romney right now…and he is shamelessly lying about the impact of the patient protection and affordable care act. I didn’t hear anything about “death panels” but the same old bullshit lines:

“Obamacare puts the government between you and your doctor”

“Higher deficits.”

“Causes you to lose the insurance you like”

“Or return to a time when you could chose the insurance you like,”

“Obamacare is a job killer”

…and others.

Yawn.

Most of his claims have been shown false by the fact checking web sites.

9:06: Gov. Gregoire is on KUOW now, pointing out how “going back to the status quo would bankrupt our businesses, our families, and the state.”

9:09: Goldy takes the SCOTUS decision as a sign that Rob McKenna is a crappy lawyer:

Remember, McKenna was instrumental in initiating the lawsuit that forced today’s ruling, and spoke confidently on the campaign trial that he and his fellow attorneys general would prevail. He was wrong.

“Our precedent demonstrates that Congress had the power to impose the exaction in Section 5000A under the taxing power, and that Section 5000A need not be read to do more than impose a tax. This is sufficient to sustain it.”

Even though an overwhelming majority of constitutional scholars had weighed in that the mandate appeared to be constitutional, perhaps it is unfair to use this ruling to impugn McKenna’s legal acumen. Perhaps McKenna merely made the political calculation that the conservative majority on the court would ultimately prove be just as politically unprincipled as he is, and thus toss out the ACA regardless of clearly established precedent?

Perhaps. Not that that take is any more flattering.

The point is that under McKenna’s leadership the attorney general’s office has an established track record of championing losing, politically motivated cases and opinions.

9:15: Obama is on now. He goes through a list of the major advantages.

“Young Americans can stay on their parents insurance”

“Seniors receive discounts on prescriptions”

“No insurance? Then you will be insured starting in 2014.”

“No discrimination by preexisting conditions”

“People who can afford insurance should take the responsibility of buying it”

“I didn’t do this because I believe it is good politics. I did it because it is good for America.”

Not much new there. Essentially, Obama and Romney stuck to their previous points.

9:23: The gods of politics are to be worshiped and thanked for giving us a Republican nominee who, while a Governor, passed the model of universal health care that he must now fight against. I think this angle has been downplayed to date because of the uncertainty of the SCOTUS decision. Now, it’s ripe….

9:26: The real “Death Panel” would have been SCOTUS if they had struck down Obamacare. Hopefully, today’s ruling will help us claw our way back to the top of the list for health statistics….

9:28: Rep. Jim McDermott is on KUOW. He is happy.

“John Roberts…is fantastic” (Okay…maybe I’ve changed the meaning there.)

“People have been trying to do this since 1935…huge victory”

“Rob McKenna has egg on his face.”

9:31: Republicans have been chanting “overreach, overreach, overreach” like they are in a fucking trance. What the SCOTUS decision shows us is that they were engaged in a collective reach around!

9:34: Steve Scher on KUOW is now interviewing some wingnut (part of the lawsuit) who claims that today’s decision means Americans have “lost their freedom.” Sure…they have lost the freedom to go bankrupt from medical costs. Freedom from watching the most disadvantaged Americans suffer for want of health care. Freedom from the constant worry about how to get health insurance….

9:40: Okay…finally back to Goldy’s point above. He is right that McKenna was shown by the SCOTUS decision to be a lousy lawyer. McDermott is right, “Rob McKenna has egg on his face.” But I stand by my statement that McKenna is a winner by this decision. A little egg on his face is nothing compared to dealing with the actual consequences to real voters had the lawsuit succeeded.

9:49: Paul Constant posts this hilarious CNN moment:

10:20: Josh Marshall:

I have some thoughts on the politics of this — mainly because the politics is what I have some expertise to speak about. But that will be my next post. Before I do that I wanted to state very clearly that the politics of the decision pales before its substance, a fact that I suspect will get little attention today. This decision will have a massive effect on the lives of literally millions of people. Mitt Romney may have joked yesterday that the White House was “not sleeping real well” last night. But a lot of people tonight and in the future will sleep a lot better for this result. Young people, people with pre-existing conditions and mainly people who through the chaos of the health care market simply find themselves with no coverage.

That’s the big deal.

10:33: Apparently, FAUX News joined CNN in jumping the gun. They heard or read that the court didn’t find the Commerce Clause argument convincing and assumed the whole thing would be struck down. TPM does a medley:

10:40: Obama speaks:

10:45: Gov. Christine Gregoire’s statement on today’s SCOTUS ruling. (Livestreaming for now.) Gregoire eviscerates Rob McKenna!

10:56: Rob McKenna releases a say-nothing statement on today’s ruling. As one of two people who initiated the lawsuit, you’d think he’d have a hell of a lot more to say than that. I suspect he is just relieved that the whole potential nightmare for his gubernatorial campaign is over.

11:06: Justice Ginsburg’s opinion quoted from Gov. Christine Gregoire’s brief,submitted in reaction to McKenna joining the lawsuit. “We tried healthcare without a mandate and it [became]…a death spiral.”

11:09: I, for one, look forward to the forthcoming law with its tax incentive to eat broccoli.

11:14: Seattle PI’s Joel Connelly summarizes some of the PPACA’s benefits for Washingtonians:

About 52,000 young people have been able to stay on their parents’ health insurance programs until the age of 26.

The law has provided that families seeking insurance cannot be denied coverage because of a child’s pre-existing condition. Nor can insurers place lifetime limits on spending for an individual’s health care.

More than 100,000 small businesses in Washington are now eligible for a federal small business tax credit designed to make it easier and more economical to provide employees with health care.

“I look forward to the day not long from now when more than 800,000 people in our state will be able to use our Health Benefit Exchange to get health insurance they need but currently must go without,” said Gov. Christine Gregoire.

119 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney creeps up a bit

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 6:49 pm


Obama Romney
99.3% probability of winning 0.7% probability of winning
Mean of 323 electoral votes Mean of 215 electoral votes

Nine new state head-to-head polls have been released in the contest between Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama since my previous analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO WeAskAmerica 25-Jun 25-Jun 1083 3.0 46.6 43.0 O+3.6
MI Denno Research 14-Jun 15-Jun 600 4.0 40 40 tie
NH ARG 21-Jun 24-Jun 417 — 49 46 O+3
NC Rasmussen 25-Jun 25-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3
OH PPP 21-Jun 24-Jun 673 3.8 47 44 O+3
OR PPP 21-Jun 24-Jun 686 3.7 50 42 O+8
UT Dan Jones 15-Jun 21-Jun 1222 2.8 26 68 R+42
VA WeAskAmerica 25-Jun 25-Jun 1106 3.0 43.3 48.0 R+4.7
VA ODU 16-May 15-Jun 776 3.5 49 42 O+7

The unsurprising polls include one from Oregon that gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney, and the first poll of the year in Utah that gives Romney a +42% advantage over Obama.

Colorado puts Obama up by +3.6% over Romney. The four current polls weigh solidly in Obama’s favor, as does the overall polling picture:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Colorado

The fourth Michigan poll released in the past week has the race tied at 40% each. Combined with two other recent polls, Obama has the slightest lead in the state overall, giving him an expected 68% probability of taking the state (if the election was held now).

The second New Hampshire poll in a week has Obama up by a tight +3% over Romney. (Note that I used the Likely Voter results instead of the Registered Voter results given for this poll.) The pair of polls combined gives Obama an 81% chance of taking the state at this point.

Romney takes the most recent North Carolina poll with a weak +3% lead over Obama. That makes five leads in a row for Mitt, all since mid-May:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12North Carolina

Ohio gives Obama a small +3% lead, breaking Romney’s two poll lead streak. The three current polls in that race give Romney a thin 55% probability of taking the state at this point:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Ohio

Two new Virginia polls split. One goes to Obama by +7% and the other goes to Romney by +4.7%. The weight of the evidence from the five recent polls is that Obama would take the state now with a 83% probability.

ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Virginia

I want to again express my gratitude to Sam Minter, who does his own poll aggregation exercise. Sam systematically compared our poll databases, resolved the discrepancies, and sent corrections to me over the past month. Also, I thank the HA commenter who noticed an error in the Nebraska past elections numbers, and persisted in getting through to me when I missed his comment.

Okay…so now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,310 times and Romney wins 690 times (including the 63 ties). Obama takes (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. For an election held now, Obama would have a 99.3% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.7% probability of winning.

Since the previous analysis Romney has gained an expected +3 electoral votes and has more than doubled his probability of winning (now), but that works out to less than a 1% probability overall of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

35 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney slips

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 12:30 pm


Obama Romney
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votes Mean of 212 electoral votes

Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.

There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 04-Jun 05-Jun 791 3.5 46 49 R+3
CO PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 799 3.5 49 42 O+7
FL Quinnipiac 12-Jun 18-Jun 1697 2.4 46 42 O+4
IA WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1086 3.0 45 44 O+1
ME WBUR 13-Jun 14-Jun 506 4.4 48 34 O+14
MI Mitchell 18-Jun 18-Jun 750 3.6 47 46 O+1
MI WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1010 3.1 43 45 R+2
MI Rasmussen 14-Jun 14-Jun 500 4.5 50 42 O+8
MI Baydoun 12-Jun 12-Jun 1783 2.3 46.9 45.5 O+1.4
MT Rasmussen 18-Jun 18-Jun 400 4.5 42 51 R+9
NE PNA 11-Jun 13-Jun 601 — 40 52 R+12
NV PPP 07-Jun 10-Jun 500 4.4 48 42 O+6
NH Rasmussen 20-Jun 20-Jun 500 4.5 48 43 O+5
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 31-May 04-Jun 1065 2.9 56 33 O+23
WA PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 1073 3.0 54 41 O+13
WA Elway 13-Jun 16-Jun 408 5.0 49 41 O+8
WI Marquette 13-Jun 15-Jun 594 4.1 49 43 O+6
WI Rasmussen 12-Jun 12-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3

[Read more…]

31 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney squeaks out a little more

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/12/12, 7:03 pm


Obama Romney
99.2% probability of winning 0.8% probability of winning
Mean of 313 electoral votes Mean of 225 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney with a mean of 321 to 217 electoral votes, and a 99.4% probability of winning an election held now.

Since then, eighteen new polls covering fourteen states have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Rasmussen 06-Jun 06-Jun 500 4.5 45 45 tie
CO Purple Poll 31-May 05-Jun 600 4.0 48 46 O+2
CT Quinnipiac 29-May 03-Jun 1408 2.6 50 38 O+12
FL Purple Poll 31-May 05-Jun 600 4.0 45 49 R+4
FL PPP 31-May 03-Jun 642 3.9 50 46 O+4
IA Rasmussen 11-Jun 11-Jun 500 4.5 46 47 R+1
MI EPIC/MRA 02-Jun 05-Jun 600 — 45 46 R+1
MN PPP 31-May 03-Jun 973 3.1 54 39 O+15
MO Rasmussen 07-Jun 07-Jun 500 4.5 42 49 R+7
NY Siena 03-Jun 06-Jun 807 3.4 59 35 O+24
NC PPP 07-Jun 10-Jun 810 3.4 46 48 R+2
ND Mason-Dixon 04-Jun 06-Jun 625 4.5 39 52 R+13
OH Purple Poll 31-May 05-Jun 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
PA Quinnipiac 05-Jun 06-Jun 997 3.1 46 40 O+6
PA Franklin & Marshall 29-May 04-Jun 412 4.8 48 36 O+12
VA Purple Poll 31-May 05-Jun 600 4.0 49 46 O+3
VA Quinnipiac 30-May 04-Jun 1282 2.7 47 42 O+5
WI We Ask America 06-Jun 06-Jun 1270 2.8 48 43 O+5

[Read more…]

91 Stoopid Comments

Open Thread 6/12

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 6/12/12, 7:59 am

– Seattle has black jobs and white jobs. If President Obama went down there and applied, he couldn’t get one of those jobs.

– More anti-abortion bullshit coming out of Texas.

– So far The Stranger’s map of free outlets is pretty bare. But it’s a good start.

– Republican members of the Senate think that the path to small business success is paved with the unpaid wages of working women.

– The Up Garden.

– I don’t know about you, but I think Lindy West wrote the greatest opening paragraph in the history of words.

– Let Mitt do the driving.

– How Feudalism works.

134 Stoopid Comments

Issues of Racial Profiling You May Not Have Heard About

by Roya — Saturday, 6/9/12, 3:02 pm

At another incredible keynote speech today at Netroots Nation 2012 titled “Criminal Justice in America”, there were a few examples mentioned of issues related to the Trayvon Martin case you may not know of. I decided to pass on a few that were mentioned in the key note, other panels, as well as find a few more of my own examples. Racial profiling needs to be eradicated. The only way to do that is first by knowing where the problem exists.

Stop and Frisk (New York):

A program that gives police the ability to stop, question and search anyone that they have “reasonable suspicion” of committing criminal activity. Supporters say that it reduces crime, opponents question whether the police really have “reasonable” suspicion of the people that they stop. About 580,000 people were stopped in 2009, 55% of which were African-American and a large portion was also Hispanic. Only 6% of the stops resulted in arrests.

Cocaine vs. Crack Offenses:

“The sentences for crack offenses need to fall to a level in line with the punishments for powder,” said Rachel King, an ACLU Legislative Counsel. “There is no rational medical or policy reason to punish crack more severely than powder. Cocaine is cocaine.” In the powder cocaine cases in 2000, 57% were against Latinos and 30% against African-Americans, even though the vast majority of powder cocaine users were white. 84.7% of crack cases were against African-Americans, 9% against Hispanics and only 5.6% against Whites. Where in reality, 64.4% of users are white. The federal mandatory minimum prison sentence disparity between cocaine and crack is 18 to 1, which was improved in 2009  from a disparity of 100 to 1.

Criminals And The Right to Vote:

Yes, it is a right. Most rights are restored to criminals after they leave jail, however voting is not one of them. Some states require you to petition the governor if you would ever like your right to vote to be restored after being in jail.

Report Illegal Immigrant Hotline:

There are multiple hotlines for people to call if they just “suspect” someone of being illegal, both national and local.


Those are just a few, feel free to leave more example in the comments and I’ll add them to the list.

There is hope, the End Racial Profiling Act has been introduced and needs to be given more support!

26 Stoopid Comments

Why That Much Corporate Money is in Politics is Not Discussed

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/6/12, 7:33 pm

I like Joel Connelly, but in his coverage this back and forth between the Association of Washington Business and the Inslee campaign, he misses the larger point.

“As you can imagine, accepting $100,000 from a major oil company openly supporting Mr. McKenna leaves the impression that the money is intended for eventual use on behalf of Mr. McKenna against Jay Inslee,” Shimomura wrote to the AWB.

“This raises serious concerns for us, and we imagine it will raise concerns for many viewers and voters as well.” Shimomura urged the Association of Washington Business to “return Tesoro’s contribution.”

One problem: Tesoro and Equilon (Shell) were using the AWB PAC not to support McKenna, but to pass through money to Tim Eyman’s Initiative 1185. Seattlepi.com and Northwest Progressive Institute both posted stories May 11 on the pass-through. Eyman, too, explained the arrangement in a letter to his followers.

Four big oil companies, BP ($100,000), ConocoPhillips ($100,000) Tesoro ($100,000) and Equilon ($50,000) are underwriting the I-1185 signature campaign while Eyman delivers populist sound bites. BP and ConocoPhillips gave directly to the campaign.

Maybe. But I think the larger point is still holy shit, the global warming industry is throwing around how much money, again? The fact that these companies — and they are anti-Inslee companies — freely spend this much money is a huge problem. For huge companies to spend more than what most people make in a year like it’s Monopoly money is a disgrace. I realize Joel covered it before, but for that to be an aside is taking your eye off the ball.

6 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney gains a bit on Obama

by Darryl — Wednesday, 6/6/12, 12:05 am


Obama Romney
99.4% probability of winning 0.6% probability of winning
Mean of 321 electoral votes Mean of 217 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 326 electoral votes to 212, and with a 99.9% probability of winning in an election held then.

Since then, twelve new state head-to-head polls have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA SurveyUSA 27-May 29-May 1575 2.5 57.4 35.6 O+21.8
CA Field Poll 21-May 29-May 710 3.8 48 32 O+16
CO Marist 22-May 24-May 1030 3.0 44 42 O+2
FL PPP 31-May 03-Jun 642 3.9 50 46 O+4
IA Marist 22-May 24-May 1106 3.0 41 41 tie
MA WNEU 29-May 31-May 504 4.4 56 34 O+22
MA U NH 25-May 31-May 651 3.8 46 34 O+12
NV Marist 22-May 24-May 1040 3.0 46 44 O+2
NM PNA 16-May 21-May 502 4.4 48 35 O+13
NY Quinnipiac 22-May 28-May 1504 2.5 56 31 O+25
OH Rasmussen 29-May 29-May 500 4.5 44 46 R+2
VA Rasmussen 03-Jun 03-Jun 500 4.5 47 47 tie

I don’t think we need to really comment on California (+21.8% and +16% for Obama), Massachusetts (+22% and +12% for Obama), and New York (+25% for Obama).

The new Florida poll puts Obama over Romney by a +4%. Even so, the aggregate of the four current Florida polls gives Romney a tiny edge (49.7% Obama to 50.3% Romney).

Ohio offers Romney a +2% edge over Obama, the first lead Romney has held since February:ObamaRomney05May12-05Jun12Ohio

The Southwest smiles upon Obama with New Mexico giving him a +13% lead, Colorado giving Obama a +2% edge, and Nevada going +2% for Obama. Do you doubt that Nevada belongs in Obama’s column? Take a look at this:

ObamaRomney05May12-05Jun12Nevada

That’s quite a streak for Obama!

Finally, we find ties in both Iowa and Virginia:

ObamaRomney05May12-05Jun12Virginia

ObamaRomney05May12-05Jun12Iowa

After 100,000 simulated elections that incorporate the new polls, Obama wins 99,442 times and Romney wins 558 times (including the 102 ties). Obama receives (on average) 321 (-5) to Romney’s 217 (+5) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have as 99.4% (-0.5%) probability of beating Romney.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

46 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/30/12, 9:12 pm


Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votes Mean of 212 electoral votes

My previous analysis of state head-to-head polls showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with a mean of 323 to 215 electoral votes. Obama had a 99.5% probability of winning; Romney had a 0.5% chance.

Six new polls have been released since then. I’ve also fixed a few minor errors (largely in older polls) thanks to some more help from Sam Minter:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA LA Times 17-May 21-May 1002 3.5 56 37 O+19
CO PNA/Keating 21-May 24-May 601 4.0 48 44 O+4
MI PPP 24-May 27-May 600 4.4 53 39 O+14
MO PPP 24-May 27-May 602 4.0 45 44 O+1
WA Strategies 360 24-May 27-May 500 4.4 51 40 O+11
WI Marquette 23-May 26-May 625 — 51.2 43.0 O+8.2

That’s a rather blue collection of new polls.

Both of the current California polls have double-digit leads for Obama.

In Colorado, Obama squeaks out +4% over Romney, whereas the previous poll had them tied. Overall the trend in Colorado polls looks favorable for Obama:
ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Colorado

Michigan gives Obama a remarkable +14% lead over Romney. One has to go back eight polls, to November 2011, to find a poll in which Romney is leading. Obama has managed to turn Michigan around, from toss-up to solid Obama, over the past six months:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Michigan

In Missouri, Obama has a meager +1% lead over Romney. Up to now, Missouri has given a small edge to Romney over Obama. My hunch is that further polling would put the state back into Romney territory. Here are the polls to date:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Missouri

The new Washington poll puts Obama at +11% over Romney. Both current WA polls give Obama double digit leads.

We have six current polls in Wisconsin. And all but one goes to Obama. With today’s poll, the trend cannot be considered good news for Romney:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Wisconsin

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,941 times and Romney wins 59 times (including the 13 ties). Obama gains three electoral votes for an average of 326 to Romney’s 212. If the election was held now, Obama would have a 99.9% probability of beating Romney, based on the polling data.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

59 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney wins some, loses some

by Darryl — Friday, 5/25/12, 12:33 pm


Obama Romney
99.5% probability of winning 0.5% probability of winning
Mean of 323 electoral votes Mean of 215 electoral votes

There were lots of new polls released in the two days since my previous analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 17-May 20-May 500 4.4 43 50 R+7
CA PPIC 14-May 20-May 894 — 50 39 O+11
FL Marist 17-May 20-May 1078 3.0 45 40 O+5
GA InsiderAdvantage 22-May 22-May 438 — 39.9 52.3 R+12.4
MD PPP 14-May 21-May 852 3.4 58 35 O+23
MA Suffolk 20-May 22-May 600 — 59.3 34.0 O+25.3
NC Civitas 19-May 20-May 600 4.0 45 47 R+2
OH Marist 17-May 20-May 1103 3.0 45 40 O+5
VA Marist 17-May 20-May 1076 3.0 46 42 O+4
WI St Norbert College 17-May 22-May 406 5.0 49 43 O+6
WI Reason-Rupe 14-May 18-May 609 4.0 46 36 O+10

The good news for Romney is that Arizona gives him a modest +7% lead over Obama. And Romney will need it, now that Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R-AZ) has concluded that Obama really was born in Hawaii. Although there is an occasional poll showing Obama ahead, the larger trend shows the state in Romney’s column:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Arizona
Other good news for Romney is that North Carolina has him up by +2% over Obama, and he takes three of the four May polls. The larger trend has favored Obama since late 2010, but things are clearly changing in the state:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12North Carolina

Florida is up to its old tricks of bouncing between candidates. After being down -6% in the previous poll, Obama scores +5% over Romeny. The overall trend in FL looks more favorable to Obama, but that can clearly change:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Florida

In good news for Obama, we finally get the first poll out of Maryland. Obama has a dominating +23% lead over Romney.

Obama takes another Ohio poll with a +5% lead over Romney. Obama has now led in the last ten Ohio polls, dating back to late February.

Virginia gives Obama +4% over Romney. The recent trend still favors Obama in the state, but there is at least a hint that the state is swinging toward Romney:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Virginia

Both Wisconsin polls give Obama the lead over Romney, and solidify his lead in the state.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,494 times and Romney wins 506 times (including the 51 ties). Obama receives (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 99.5% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.5% probability of winning.

The probability is a slight improvement for Romney, up from a 0.2%. On the other hand, Romney’s expected electoral vote total drops from 220 to 215, as Obama’s increases from 318 to 323.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

15 Stoopid Comments

Open Thread 5/24

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 5/24/12, 7:59 am

– The Democratic Conversation.

– Rob McKenna’s time at the County Council was totally above board.

– On the one hand Hustler is misogynistic is hardly a story on the other hand yiiiiiiiiikes.

– This is quite old and I don’t remember who gets the hat tip, but this map of Seattle’s racial profile as of the last census is pretty interesting.

– Some of these are a bit of a stretch of either “Seattle” or “under $25” but I can recommend many of them.

– Folklife is this weekend. The Flying Blind Blues Band at 2:05 on Friday features HA’s own Darryl.

302 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Romney gains ever so slightly on Obama

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/23/12, 2:44 pm


Obama Romney
99.8% probability of winning 0.2% probability of winning
Mean of 318 electoral votes Mean of 220 electoral votes

My analysis from last Friday showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with an average of 333 to 205 electoral votes, and a 99.9% probability of winning an election held now.

Over the last few days, a bunch of new state head-to-head polls have been released. In addition, I’ve learned about a couple of recent polls that I had missed. I owe a big thanks to Sam Minter, who also aggregates and analyzes state head-to-head polls in this race. Sam has spotted a couple of my errors over the past two months, and has let me know about some recent polls I was missing.

Here are the new polls added for today’s analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL Quinnipiac 15-May 21-May 1722 2.4 41 47 R+6
MA Rasmussen 07-May 07-May 500 4.5 56 35 O+21
MI Glengariff Group 10-May 11-May 600 4.0 45.1 39.5 O+5.6
NJ Quinnipiac 09-May 14-May 1582 2.5 49 39 O+10
NC SurveyUSA 18-May 21-May 524 4.4 44.5 45.2 R+0.8
OH Quinnipiac 02-May 07-May 1069 3.0 45 44 O+1
OK SoonerPoll 07-May 10-May 504 4.4 27 62 R+35
PA Rasmussen 21-May 21-May 500 4.5 47 41 O+6
PA PPP 17-May 20-May 671 3.8 50 42 O+8
TN Vanderbilt Poll 02-May 09-May 752 4.0 40 47 R+7
TX U Texas 07-May 13-May 511 4.3 35 55 R+20
VT Castleton Poll 07-May 16-May 607 4.0 59 28 O+31

The bad news for Obama is the Florida poll that has Romney up by +6%. Romney has taken three of the last four polls in Florida, and would have a 91% probability of taking the state in an election now.

The other new results favorable to Romney come from red states. I should point out that Texas shows a remarkable +20 for Romney using the poll’s Likely Voter results. As DailyKos’ Steve Singiser points out, the definition the pollster used for likely voters is rather dubious. The poll’s registered voter results show a +8 lead for Romney. (I always take the likely voter over registered voter results but, either way, Romney will most likely take Texas.)

There is more bad than good news for Romney. First, he barely leads Obama (by 0.8%) in North Carolina. Over the past month, Obama and Romney have split the four NC polls. Right now Obama wins about two thirds of the simulated elections, but the trend probably favors Romney. Still…shouldn’t Romney be much stronger in NC? (Oh…and let’s not discuss the odd SC result…again. Just keep on praying for a new poll in the state.)

More bad news for Romney is that Obama dominates in Michigan by +5.6%. This makes six consecutive polls in favor of Obama in MI, all taken this year.

The terrible news for Romney is Ohio, where Obama continues to lead, albeit by only +1%, but Obama leads in all three “current” polls and the long-term trend isn’t suggesting any changes soon:

ObamaRomney23Apr12-23May12Ohio

And the super horrible news for Romney is Pennsylvania. Obama leads by +6% and +8% in the two new polls. Using all three current polls, Obama wins the state 99.7% of the time. And, like Ohio, the trend offers no hints at a Romney takeover:
ObamaRomney23Apr12-23May12Pennsylvania

How do things stack up now? After simulating 100,000 elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama wins 99,761 times and Romney wins 239 times (including the 101 ties). Obama receives (on average) 318 to Romney’s 220 electoral votes. If the election was held now, Obama would win with a 99.8% probability.

Romney has gained, on average, +15 electoral votes compared to last week’s analysis, but that only translates into a one tenth of one percent increase in his chances of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

14 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/18/12, 11:52 pm

Thom: Can Romney win by lying?

Obama on protecting a woman’s right to choose.

Newsy: Catholic church is investigating girl scouts.

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Mitt Romney: Hot problems:

Thom: The right’s obsession with female body parts (i.e. the Republican War on Women™).

Jen: Shadowy organizations work to suppress the vote.

Daily Show on Space.

Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) team up to do comedy.

Stephanie Cutter: Get the facts on Karl Rove’s BS.

Hey, good luck getting laid, Wisconsin State Senator Glenn Grothman.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News fucks up on “liberal intolerance”.

Romney economics and the Bankruptcy and bailouts at GST Steel.

ONN: Republicans stalling Obama’s agenda by speaking & moving in slow motion.

Daily Show: Energy.

The Bane of Romney’s existence.

The Partisans: ZOMBIE AYN RAND:

Jen with Reich: The odd case of Romney praising Clinton.

Obama: One item on the #CongressToDoList.

Mitt Romney: “I stand by what I said, whatever it was.”

Gay Politics:

  • Young Turks: FAUX’s Dr. Ablow is “a moron” for gay adoption comments
  • Young Turks: NC on gay marriage.
  • Sam Seder: RI Governor issues executive order recognizing same sex marriages
  • Mark Fiore: Dogboy and Mr. Dan on gay marriage.
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt devolving.
  • Sam Seder: Lesbian couple denied a driver.

Obama’s accomplishments on Higher education.

Newsy: Minority births outnumber white births for first time in history.

The GOP primary candidate performances embodied as butt plugs:

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: Firing up Romney.

Sam Seder: Someone gives Teh Birfers a bone.

ONN: Alabama hosts first desegregated mass suicide.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bill-O’s “Income inequality is bull”..

Ed and Pap: Obama campaign finally gets tough on Romney.

The Wright Stuff:

  • Young Turks: Herman Cain says Rev. Wright Smears are ‘Fair Game’ on FAUX News.
  • Thom: Wright vs. Mormonism ?!?
  • Young Turks: Sean Hannity says Romney ‘made a mistake’ by not using Rev. Wright.
  • Buzz 60: Race returns as an issue.
  • Young Turks: The Wingnut plan to bring back failed Rev. Wright strategy.
  • Glenn Beck (remember him?) offers $150,000 for Rev. Wright ‘Obama’ box

Maddow Show: Ugly echoes of 2008 encroach on Romney message.

Young Turks: ‘Professor Cenk’ breaks down Bain Capital’s buyout of GST.

The Daily Show on mobile devices.

Sam Seder: Mitt will “stand by” what he said.

Thom: Why Common Cause is suing the U.S. Senate.

Jonathan Mann: Mitt Romney’s Mirthless Laugh:

Actual Audio: Mitt Romney on his high school prank.

Sam Seder: DOJ says it is your Constitutional right to video tape the police.

Pap: Republicans are the losers in the War on Terror.

Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow Show: Improving economy undermining Romney’s message.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

129 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Obama v. Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 5/18/12, 4:25 pm

It’s been a long time since I done these analyses—just over a month. I quit doing them after Mitt Romney became the presumptive nominee. I pointed out that:

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Since Pres. Obama was beating Romney in 100% of the simulated elections, with an average electoral vote total of 347 to 191, it seemed silly to keep doing these analyses until the race looked a bit more “post-primary.”

Since that last analysis, 50 new polls have come out, covering 26 different states. (Still no new S.C. poll…sorry.) I guess it’s time to see how Obama and Romney stack up.

First, I should mention that the National polls make the race appear to be very close. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls has Obama leading Romney by +1.7%. The problem is, the national polls reflect the national vote. And as we remember all too well from 2000, the national vote does not always go the way of the Electoral College.

That is why I do these analyses. I collect only the state head-to-head polls and use them to infer the winner of the Electoral College. So, with an (apparently) close popular vote, how does the election look?

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,890 times and Romney wins 110 times (and we even give him the 12 ties). Obama receives (on average) 333 to Romney’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.9% probability to Romney’s 0.1% probability.

Huh…the “post-primary” election has hardly changed.

Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 333 electoral votes Mean of 205 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

11 Stoopid Comments

What to do About JPMorgan Chase?

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/16/12, 9:21 am

In most business, when a company loses $2 Billion as part of its core business model, we usually let the market take care of things. Maybe have regulators look into it if the loss was caused by deceptive practices. But generally speaking, the market effects of their decision are a good enough punishment for whatever business. If a company loses $2 Billion and has to go in front of Congress or regulators, the worst part is generally the loss of money.

But banks are different for a few reasons. First, their role in the economy is different than other companies. The financing they provide is not the same as what most companies do. So they should be treated differently.

But even if you don’t buy that, surely, given that they are covered by the FDIC and have been given a fuckton of free money as an industry means that the banks have a different responsibilities to the general good than a manufacturing firm or a tech startup (that I think also have some responsibility, but not as much). As long as banks have the taxpayers funneling money to them, and acting as a backstop, they should act as models of responsibility.

But they haven’t been responsible. JPMorgan Chase isn’t even bothering to make original fuckups.

So, a few heads should roll. I still don’t understand why no CEO’s lost their jobs. We should also make sure the regulations are as tight as possible. Or at the very least, we could stop giving free money to the people who will just gamble it away.

141 Stoopid Comments

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