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Obama has made a big jump in his chances to be reelected with this new analysis.

A couple of things. This analysis only includes polls through early Friday morning. Also, I am using a 7-day “current poll” window at this point in the race. Third, after missing most of the week, I cannot go through the state-by-state polls today. And last, there are some older polls I’ve added but not included in this list. The list may also exclude one or two new polls. You can always see what polls are used for each state from the big state table below.

Here are (most of) the new polls I’ve included:

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 94,381 times and Romney wins 5,619 times (including the 384 ties). Obama received (on average) 302 to Romney’s 236 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 94.4% probability of winning and Romney would have a 5.6% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2011 to 02 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney with a 93.4% to a 6.6% probability of winning an election now. Obama led 294 to 244 electoral votes

Today’s polls through about noon were…

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 95,877 times and Romney wins 4,123 times (including the 363 ties). Obama received (on average) 303 to Romney’s 235 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 95.9% probability of winning and Romney would have a 4.1% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 29 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

My analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 299 to 239 electoral votes, and Obama with a probability of winning a hypothetical election now by 93%. I pointed out that the race had stabilized and, perhaps, slightly swung in favor of Obama.

Today’s polls are consistent with the idea that the race has stabilized. We see Romney bouncing up a handful of electoral votes, but Obama’s gaining a bit more in his probability of winning an election now.

Here are the 36 new polls covering 16 states released over the past couple of days:

You may recall from early October, a Rocky Mountain poll in Arizona that had Obama leading by +2%. We finally get a new poll from the state. And it has Romney leading Obama by +8%. The new poll seems consistent with most earlier polls, suggesting the Rocky Mountain poll was an outlier. Even so, the Rocky Mountain poll was notable because they provided both English and Spanish language live interviews, thereby likely capturing a more representative sample of Latino voters. Why is that important? University of Washington Political Science Professor Matt Barreto explains.

Five Colorado polls were released, none of which showed Romney leading. There was one tie, and Obama had smallish margins in the rest. Of the seven current polls Romney leads in one. Even so, the very small leads for Obama only put him at a 79% probability of winning right now.

Four new Florida polls go 3:1 in favor of Romney. In the past 10 days, there have been 11 polls taken, and Obama only leads in three (plus there is one tie). Romney takes away an 86% probability of winning at this point in the race.

In Iowa, two new polls show Obama leading by small (+4%, +2%) margins. Romney only leads by +1% in one of the six current polls. Obama is at a 92% probability for taking the state now.

A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading Romney by +8%. With only two current polls Obama is at a 95% probability of winning now.

The three new Nevada polls favor Obama by small margins, and by 50% in each case. Obama leads in all seven current polls, and is at a 96% probability.

Just a week ago, New Hampshire was looking to be in Romney’s column. Today’s poll gives Obama a +3% and three of the six current polls, and Obama’s margins are greater than Romneys. Together, the evidence suggests Obama would take the state now with a probability of 77%.

New Mexico remains rock solid for Obama with this new +9%.

Four new North Carolina polls tell a mixed story. Romney has a +8% in one and a +1% in another, Obama leads one by +3% and one is tied. In aggregate, however, it is pretty clear that Romney is ahead overall. He leads in three of the six current polls, with stronger leads. Taken together, Romney is at a 94% probability of taking the state now.

Three more Ohio polls go to Obama, but by small margins. We now have 14 current polls, and Obama leads Romney eleven to one with two ties. The net result is that Obama is at a 97% probability of taking this most important of swing states.

Another Pennsylvania poll goes to Obama by a single-digit +5%. But Obama is at 51% in this poll. The four current polls all go to Obama by similar small margins.

Virginia keeps us guessing with Obama and Romney splitting a new poll at 47% each. Here is how close the state is. Each candidate leads in three polls of the seven current polls, and there is a tie. There are 4,970 total “votes” therein, of which Romney gets just 10 more than Obama. That’s close!

Two of the three new polls in Wisconsin goes to Obama, and the third is a tie. Romney does not lead any of the six current polls, so Obama earns a 92% probability of winning the state.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,432 times and Romney wins 6,568 times (including the 487 ties). We get a split decision. Obama received (on average) 294 (-5) to Romney’s 244 (+5) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 93.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 6.6% (-0.4%)probability of winning.

Here is the long term trend in this race, found from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 26 Oct 2011 to 26 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ):

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

[Note: This analysis was completed this morning, but publication was delayed for the two previous posts. New polls are probably out by now…they will be included in my next analysis.]

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 292 to 246 electoral votes. The Monte Carlo analysis give Obama a 93.4% and Romney a 6.6% probability of winning an election held now.

There was a boatload of new polls released in the past couple of days. But before discussing them, I should point out, that I am now using a ten-day “current poll” window. This means the analysis works with polls taken within the past ten days whenever possible. Next Tuesday, if enough polls are being released, I’ll shrink the window down to one week. After some poll talk, I’ll discuss the effect on the results of shrinking the window.

Two new Florida polls both have the candidates tied. Still, Romney takes four of the seven current polls, giving Romney a thin +1.4% lead in “votes” and a 77% probability of winning an election held now.

Indiana polls are notable because they are relatively rare. This new poll confirms that Romney has a good lock on the state.

Michigan turns in a squeaker…essentially a tie, with Obama up by +0.3%. With one other current poll giving Obama a +6%, Obama holds a 79% probability of winning the state.

The new poll in Minnesota is the only current poll for the state. With Obama up by a thin +5%, his probability of winning the state is 79%.

We get a new Nebraska poll showing Romney up by +11.5%. Unfortunately, we don’t get the breakout of the Nebraska congressional districts. Mid-September was the last time we had a poll for NE-2, and that showed a 44%–44% split. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 by +1.2%, so in the event of close race, NE-2 could end up being kingmaker.

Three new Nevada polls all go to Obama by quite small margins (+4%, +2% and +2%). In total, we have six current polls and they all favor Obama, giving him a 96% probability of winning now. The last three months of polling in the state tell a story of a small, but stable, lead:

Three new New Hampshire polls go 2:1 for Romney. In fact, the candidates split the six current polls. Obama comes out +1.4% ahead in the “votes”, largely on the strength of one University of New Hampshire poll.

Three North Dakota polls in one week? Go figure! But, no doubts, either. Romney is double-digit solid there.

Five new polls come in for Ohio. Romney takes exactly zero of them, although the Rasmussen poll is a tie, and Obama’s leads are pretty small. The current polls support a small lead for Obama, and jointly give him a 96% probability of winning right now. The past month of polling in this race shows a race that has been stable with, on average, a small advantage for Obama:

Pennsylvania supports Obama over Romney by +4.0%. The three current polls give Obama a +4% advantage that translates into a 90% probability of winning the state now.

Two new Virginia polls give Obama a +5% and +1% edge over Romney. With three of four current polls in Obama’s column, Virginia turns blue. Obama’s lead is tenuous, however, and he has only a 67% probability of winning the state now.

In the new Washington poll, Obama gets a solid double-digit lead.

Obama gets a narrow lead in the new Wisconsin poll. With all three current polls giving him a small lead, Obama gets a 90% probability of winning an election now in the state.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,023 times and Romney wins 6,977 times (including the 611 ties). Obama received (on average) 299 (+7) to Romney’s 239 (-7) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 93.0% (-0.4) probability of winning and Romney would have a 7.0% (+0.4) probability of winning.

The large batch of new polls, combined with the ten-day “current poll” window, has increased Obama’s expectation for electoral votes by +7, but slightly reduced the probability of winning. The reduced probability reflects the fact that the smaller window results in a smaller number of polls and, therefore, polled individuals. And a smaller sample of “voters” increases uncertainty in the outcome. Essentially the ten-day window throws out older evidence. That way, if the race is undergoing shorter changes in the weeks before the election, the analysis will more likely pick them up.

The time series graph (from elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 25 Oct 2011 to 25 Oct 2012 [FAQ]), it looks like Romney’s post-first-debate gains peaked a week or two ago. The race has, at least, stabilized, and Obama’s slight gain may be a sign of the trend reversing. It’s too early to claim that Obama has the momentum, however.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 295 to 243 electoral votes. The Monte Carlo simulation had Obama winning 93.9% of the elections, and Romney winning 6.1%.

The polls have been trickling in over the weekend and on Monday. At press time (which really means, “start running the analysis” time I was able to dig up 16 new polls:

A big surprise from a new poll in Arizona: it gives Obama a weak lead over Romney. It seems improbable, but there you have it. There are only two current polls in Arizona, and Romney is up by +9 in the other one. Consequently, Romney would be expected to win the state with an 84% probability.

Colorado has Obama up by +2.4% over Romney in today’s poll. With eight current polls weighing in, the state is pretty close to a tie. Romney would be expected to win the state now with a 60% probability. Here is the trend:

Romney takes a +1% lead in both of the new Florida polls. Overall, he has a 87% probability of winning the state in an election held today.

We finally get an Idaho poll, and Romney leads Obama by +36%. Now we know why nobody wants to poll in the state.

Iowa is all tied up at 48% in today’s poll. But Obama leads in the only other current poll, so he ends up with a 59% chance of winning at this point.

The new New Mexico poll puts Obama up by a solid +10%—a margin right in line with the other two current polls.

There are three new polls for North Carolina, but notice that the High Point University polls include a pre-debate poll, where Obama leads, and a post debate poll, where Romney leads. He also leads in the third new poll (which is post debate). The current polls, taken together, give Romney a 97% chance of winning now. Romney has clearly recaptured the lead he held in August:

Ohio puts Obama up by +5% in today’s poll. The collection of 10 Ohio polls give Obama a +2% and 85% probability of taking the state in an election now. The long-term trend shows something of a dip in Obama’s lead, but not enough to tie up the state or give the lead to Romney.

Obama’s lead in two new Pennsylvania polls. Overall, Obama wins all ten of the current polls. That makes 37 consecutive polls that have gone to Obama, all the way back to early February.

Virginia gives Romney a +1% lead in the current poll. Romney leads in five of eight current polls and there is also a tie in one poll. Oddly enough because Obama leads more strongly in one large poll, he gets a slight overall advantage, with a 54% chance of winning an election held now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 86,465 times and Romney wins 13,535 times (including the 1,003 ties). Obama receives (on average) 288 (-7) to Romney’s 250 (+7) electoral votes. Obama has a 86.5% (-7.4%) probability of winning and Romney has a 13.5% (+7.4%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 15 Oct 2011 to 15 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

[Read more…]

The Monte Carlo analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 303 to 235 electoral votes. If an election was held then, we would expect Obama to win with a 95.7% probability, and Romney with a 4.3% probability. Since Obama’s probability is greater than 95%, standard statistical reasoning would call Obama’s lead “statistically significant.”

Today there were lots of new polls released.

Colorado turns red with the addition of two new polls that give Romney a +1% edge. Romney leads in five of seven current polls and has a 75% probability of taking the state now.

Three new Florida polls, also give Romney the edge. He leads Obama in five of the ten current polls, but by larger margins. Taken together, the simulation gives Romney a 76% chance of winning Florida now. Here’s the last three months:

Michigan voters seem content to supports Obama, if these three polls are representative. All five current polls go to Obama and they average out to a mid-single digit lead. The larger picture shows Obama with a pretty solid advantage:

Two new Nevada polls give Obama weak leads. In fact, Romney doesn’t lead in any of the five current polls, although one poll had the candidates tied. Taken together, Obama get a 74% probability of taking the state now.

A new New Hampshire poll goes surprisingly strongly for Romney—by +4%. The previous poll was a tie, and the oldest current poll has Obama up by a comfortable +15%. But fair warning: That poll was taken before the presidential debate! New Hampshire is definitely worth watching at this point. Here is the rather abrupt change in a picture:

Only one new North Carolina poll that puts Romney over Obama by +3%. Romney leads in three of the six current polls and all three post-presidential debate polls.

Four new Ohio polls split 3 to 1 for Obama. The President leads in 8 of 12 current polls. If the election was held now, the model predicts Obama would win Ohio with a 91% probability.

Pennsylvania is even stronger for Obama, who takes both of the new polls. Obama leads in all five of the current polls, and would be expected to win Pennsylvania now with a 94% probability.

Three Virginia polls give three results: a tie and a win for each candidate. When the current polls. are combined, Obama takes 50.4% of the pooled “votes”. And that translates into a 69% probability of winning an election right now. Here is the story in picture form:

Two new Wisconsin polls give Obama weak leads (+2% and +4%) over Romney. Obama’s lead has been cut from double digits just before the debate to about a +4% advantage. But the results give Obama a 98.4% probability of winning the state right now. The picture shows Obama with consistent lead in the state, if by a reduced margin:

When these new polls are added to the mix, the Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama the win 93,914 times and Romney, 6,086 times (including the 901 ties). Obama receives (on average) 295 (-8) to Romney’s 243 (+8) electoral votes. If an election was held today, we’d expect Obama to win with a 93.9% (-1.8%) probability. Romney would have a 6.1% (+1.8%) probability of winning. By standard statistical reasoning, Obama’s lead is no longer “statistical significant.”

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2011 to 12 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

Essentially, Mitt Romney rebounded back to where he was just after the Republican convention.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

The previous analysis (three days ago) showed President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 342 to 196 electoral votes. I was using a 21 day “current poll” window, but promised a shorter one soon. I had previously decided to switch to a 14 day “current poll” window on the 10th of this month, and that is today.

So, for comparison, using a 14 day window three days ago we had Obama leading Romney 316 to 222 electoral votes, and a 99.2% probability of winning an election held then.

Over the past three days, we have 32 new polls that cover 20 states plus each of Maine’s two congressional districts. Most of the polls are post-first-debate. Here are the details:

The candidates split the Colorado polls, with +1% for Obama and a +4 for Romney. The current polls split three to three between the candidates, giving Romney a very slight edge—a 53% probability of taking the state if the election was now. This is a pretty significant shift as can be seen from the polling history over the past three months:

One new Florida poll has Romney up by +4%. Obama takes four of the six current polls and ends up with a slight edge of a 55% probability of winning now.

Obama gets another small Iowa lead, this time by +2%. He is down to an 85% probability of winning an election now. A week ago, that was a 99% probability….

Obama also holds a small +3% lead in the two new Michigan polls. That is a big drop from the double digit lead he has in the oldest current poll. Still, the evidence suggests Obama would take Michigan in an election now.

Minnesota gives Obama a double digit lead (+10%) in the only post-debate poll for the state.

Romney maintains his strong lead in Montana with this new poll.

Two very close Nevada polls taken together give Obama a very slight lead. Three of the four current polls were taken after the debate and show a very small Obama advantage. The oldest current poll gives Obama a +10%. Here is another view:

Today’s New Hampshire poll has Obama and Romney tied up. This new poll is the only post-debate poll of the three current polls.

New Mexico gives Obama a solid +11% lead over Romney. Essentially, this is as good as Obama was doing before the Debate.

In North Carolina, Romney leads Obama by a single-digit +8.7%. Romney takes three of the five current polls, including both post-debate polls. Romney has a 95% chance in the state for an election now.

Four new polls in Ohio split between Obama and Romney. Combined with four other current polls, Obama ends up with an 86% probability in an election now. Here’s the picture:

Obama keeps the lead in the three new Pennsylvania polls, albeit by smaller margins than he had pre-debate:

Obama leads in the latest Virginia poll. Combined with three other current polls we have a dead even race in the state. The polling history tells the post-debate story:

Obama maintains a weak +2% lead in Wisconsin, where his chances in the state have dropped to 97% for an election now.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections using a 21 day window, Obama wins 95,666 times and Romney wins 4,334 times (and he get the 347 ties). Obama receives (on average) 303 (-13) to Romney’s 235 (+13) electoral votes. In an election held now, we could expect Obama to win with a 95.7% (-3.5%) probability of winning. That is, Romney surges to a 4.3% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2011 to 10 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

[Read more…]

A rather paltry 15 new polls covering 10 states have been released since my previous analysis. What makes this new batch of polls interesting is that most of them are post-first-debate polls. And looking at them, it’s clear that Romney will get either a boost or a bump from the polls. (My prediction was that Romney would get an acute advantage, but a long term disadvantage from the debates—it’s simply to early to test that prediction.)

Here are the polls, including some in seven or eight swing states:

Before the debate, Obama had lend in 5 consecutive Colorado polls, but by margins of from 3% to 6%. Now Romney takes two of the three new polls and three of nine current polls (currently defined as polls taken in the past three weeks). Obama’s goes from winning 97% to 91% of the simulated elections.

In Florida, Romney leads Obama in two new post-debate polls, albeit by small margins. With fourteen current polls, and the fact that two polls aged out—one that barely went to Romney and one that was weak for Obama—there is almost no difference in the projected outcome of an election held now for Florida.

In Missouri, Romney leads Obama by +3%, his smallest lead of the current polls. That causes his chances to drop from 100% to 99.9% in the state.

Obama barely leads in the new Nevada poll. The +1% is his weakest showing of the current polls, except for one late September tie. His chances drop from 99.5% to 99.2% as a consequence.

No sign that New Mexico is flipping over to Romney. Obama’s +9% lead is right up there with three other polls that were from +9% to +11%.

Two new polls in Ohio split between the candidates, and by +1% each. The WeAskAmerica poll is the only current poll, of ten, in which Romney leads. Obama still wins 100% of the simulated elections.

Romney take two of two Virginia polls. Prior to these polls, Romney lost 13 polls in a row, dating back to early September. But with Obama leading in the eight other current polls, his chances have dropped from 100% down to 99%.

Wisconsin is still in Obama’s column after the debate gives Obama a rather weak lead over Romney by +2%. This is Obama’s weakest showing among the current polls, but he still takes 100% of the simulated elections.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections informed only by state head-to-head polls, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 342 to Romney’s 196 electoral votes over the simulated elections. These are the identical numbers we had before. The results suggest that for an election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Of course, the very abrupt change in momentum that we may end up seeing in the aftermath of the first debate is not fully represented in this analysis. My three week polling window smooths the results over three weeks. (The window will shrink to two weeks very soon.)

We can assess the race with less smoothing by shrinking that window. In the following table, I’ve shrunk the window a number of times. The results clearly show that Romney has gained the initiative in the short run, even if he still is the probable loser in an election held now:

Current poll windows below five days tend to start reversing the trend. Fewer polls become included as “current polls”, which means more older polls then get averaged in (at least with the modest pace of polling right now).

Romney’s peak chances occur by assuming only the post-debate polls, when available, should be used—that is, any prior strengths or weaknesses observed through polling in the recently polled states is entirely discarded. Romney peaks out at a 22.5% chance of winning an election held now under that scenario.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 07 Oct 2011 to 07 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ). Even with a small handful of post-debate polls, we see Obama’s momentum stopped, and the uncertainty in outcome increased (that is, there is more spread between upper and lower 95% limits) .

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]