Search Results for: 10,000

There is a lot to hate about the minimum wage proposals leaking out of the mayor’s Income Inequality Advisory Committee, not the least of which being that they are fundamentally dishonest. A $15 an hour minimum wage that takes up to seven years to phase in for some workers before annual cost of living adjustments (COLAs) kick in, is not $15 an hour—it’ll be about $13.25 in 2014 dollars. So let’s not pat ourselves on the backs for doing something we’re not doing.

But the compromise under discussion is also overly complicated, reportedly requiring four different phase-in schedules depending on the size of the business and whether or not the employee earns tips or health care benefits. That’s just crazy. It will be difficult to implement, difficult to comply with, and difficult to enforce. It creates an economic incentive for businesses at or near the full-time equivalent employee (FTE) threshold to reduce employment (or just plain lie about it) in order to qualify for a more favorable schedule. And imagine the regulatory complexity for dealing with businesses that straddle the FTE threshold (some months more, some months less) and that hire both part-time and full-time tipped and untipped workers!

Also, the math doesn’t work! If $15 is phased in over four different schedules before COLAs kick in—three, four, five, and seven years respectively—either we’ll end up with four different minimum wages, or those workers phased in after three years won’t get a raise for another five years: one year after workers on the seven-year schedule are phased in.

Fortunately, there is a simpler way to achieve similar results without all the mess: Math!

First, we phase in a $15 minimum wage over a single two- or three- year schedule—say, $11 in 2015, $13 in 2016, $15 in 2017—adjusted for inflation thereafter. That in itself would represent a huge concession, one which would have had me booed off the stage at Saturday’s $15 Now conference. But most minimum wage hikes are phased in over two years, and this one is bigger than most, so that is a rhetorical and political fight that I don’t want to get sidetracked by in this post.

Second we give employers a deduction against tips and the cost of providing health benefits, phased out over several  years, and inversely proportional to the employer’s current number of FTEs. This may sound complicated, but the math is actually quite straight forward:

Max_Deduction = (City_Min – State_Min) * (((Years + 1) – year) / Years) * ((FTE_Cap – FTEs) / FTE_Cap)

The starting point for the maximum deduction is always the difference between Seattle’s minimum wage and the effective minimum wage under state and federal law, currently the state minimum wage of $9.32 an hour, indexed to inflation: (City_Min – State_Min). Then we adjust for the deduction phase-out. For example, in the first year of a five-year phase out, 100 percent of this deduction would be available, in the second year 80 percent of the deduction, in the third year 60 percent, and so on: (((Years + 1) – year) / Years). Finally, the maximum deduction available to each employer is further reduced by the employer’s total number of FTEs as a percentage of a defined FTE cap. For example, if the ordinance defines the FTE cap at 1,000 (the number of FTEs at which companies no longer qualify to take any deduction), and a business employs 100 FTEs, then that business could claim up to 90 percent of that year’s available deduction: ((FTE_Cap – FTEs) / FTE_Cap).

How might this work in reality. Well, presuming the three-year $15 phase-in described above, a five-year tip and health benefit deduction phase-out, an FTE cap of 500, and a conservative 1.75 percent annual inflation rate, Seattle’s minimum wage for various sized businesses would phase in as follows:

Year	Base Min.	10 FTEs	100 FTEs	250 FTES
2015	$11.00	$9.51	$9.79	$10.24
2016	$13.00	$10.37	$10.86	$11.66
2017	$15.00	$11.95	$12.51	$13.45
2018	$15.26	$13.20	$13.58	$14.21
2019	$15.53	$14.48	$14.67	$14.99
2020	$15.80	$15.80	$15.80	$15.80

You can adjust the FTE cap or the length of the phase-out, or inflation-adjust the three-year phase-in, but a similar pattern emerges: smaller businesses essentially phase in to the full Seattle minimum wage a lot more gradually than large businesses.

It is important to note that all businesses at or above the FTE cap will pay the base Seattle minimum wage in column two. Likewise, non-tipped non-benefit employees will also receive the base Seattle minimum wage. Further, an employer’s deduction against his minimum wage obligation can never exceed the amount the employee receives in tips and health benefits. For example, if a 10 FTE employer only paid the equivalent of $2.00 an hour in health benefits during 2017, he must pay non-tipped employees an effective $13.00 minimum wage, not the lower $11.95 rate that would otherwise be available.

This formula-based phase-out has huge advantages over the fixed schedules the advisory committee is considering. First, it doesn’t attempt to address the needs of five-employee businesses and 500-employee businesses in one broad stroke—deductions are targeted along a finely calibrated continuum. Second it avoids an arbitrary definition of a “small” business that might incentivize employers to limit their number of FTEs in order to stay on one side of a threshold. And finally, it acknowledges that FTEs rise and fall over time due to seasonal and other reasons; during any pay period the employer need merely go to a city website and plug in his current number of FTEs in order to calculate his current maximum deduction. Easy.

As for not-for-profits, we might remove the FTE adjustment altogether, giving them the opportunity to take the maximum benefit deduction available in any given year.

I make this proposal reluctantly, as I do not accept the economic (or moral) necessity of constructing such a prolonged phase-in. But if this is the direction the committee and the council are going, an FTE-adjusted deduction phase-out is a much more rational, flexible, and targeted approach. City council members would do well to consider the regulatory nightmare a four-schedule minimum wage could create, and then steer well clear of it.

But mostly I offer this proposal in the interest of refining and focusing the debate. All sides agree that smaller businesses and not-for-profits need to phase-in more slowly than large businesses. Even the 15Now.org charter amendment embodies that principal. Achieving this objective through an FTE-adjusted phase-out allows us to focus on defining the variables in the formula—the number of years and the size of the FTE cap—rather than rehashing the same old political arguments. And by eliminating the necessity to define “small business” by an arbitrarily abrupt FTE threshold, we eliminate some of the political pressure to raise that all-or-nothing threshold in order to satisfy one or more special interests.

To be clear, I would never advise 15Now.org to put such a compromise on the ballot. But if the city council were to adopt a minimum wage along the lines of what I’ve described above, I could in good conscience advise them to drop their objections, and move on to the next item on their agenda.

If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em, that’s what I always say, which is why I’ve decided to supplement my unemployment by driving part-time for Hoopty™, Seattle’s newest ride-share company!

Hoopty fully embraces the efficiency of the unregulated free market to deliver the future of ride-share today, conveniently offering both prearranged and hailed pickups through your smartphone—just call, text, or email me from your smartphone, and I’ll come pick you up! All of our vehicles have passed the state emissions test, and are guaranteed to have been driven fewer than 100,000 miles (at least for the next 600 miles or so). You can recognize Hoopty by the cracked windshield, the menacing dog, and our signature styrofoam “TAXI” sign crudely taped to the roof of the car.

Take that, pink mustache!

With Hoopty, you’ll enjoy our casual user experience, sitting right up front with the driver. Unless the dog lets you into the back—Feisty hasn’t bitten anybody in years, and even then, not much more than a nip, so you’ll probably be okay—just don’t make any sudden moves or loud noises.

At the end of your ride, your Hoopty driver will be happy to take your credit card, but unlike Lyft, Sidecar, and Uber, we also take cash and barter. (For example, we could really use a new windshield. And maybe some brakes.) And of course, all Hoopty drivers are carefully screened and fully insured. Don’t worry how much insurance. Just trust us!

And finally, at Hoopty, we guarantee that you get what you pay for! Hoopty doesn’t waste money on bells and whistles like app development or car washing or routine vehicle maintenance, allowing us to offer you the most affordable ride-share in Seattle. Tired of paying Uber’s infamous surge pricing? We promise to charge you something less than that, or your money back!

Ready to try Hoopty? Feisty and I will be cruising downtown Seattle this afternoon picking up hailing passengers; just look for the menacing dog and the styrofoam sign, and scream out the special offer code: “Goldy, I need a ride!” As for Hoopty’s legality, well, it’s not like Lyft, Sidecar, and uberX have a monopoly on breaking Seattle’s taxi and for-hire laws. So while we don’t technically have a for-hire license or anything, we don’t expect the Seattle police to bother to stop us, let alone issue a citation. And if they do, we’ll just sue the fuck out of the city for selective enforcement.

Hoopty™: Because if Wall Street backed ride-share companies can break the law, anybody can!

– I can’t imagine city leaders pushing for a freeway through their downtown, but I guess Olympia in the 1950’s is strange.

– TRAP Laws and the Emptying of ‘Roe’

– I’ve probably walked past that bike shop 10000 times. Who could have predicted they’d be a chop shop? Other than I sort of assume that about all bike shops.

– Shoe truthers, sure.

– Why is there a different standard between McAllister and Vitter? Shut up, that’s why.

– Today in “just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should,” it’s the Rattlesnake Rodeo—or, more accurately, the Rattlesnake Pile of Snakes Just Kind of Lying There—in Opp, Alabama. The annual event includes snake races, snake handling, snake milking, and snake touching.

I suppose because a 15.6 percent cut in Metro bus service would be totally all right:

THE campaign for King County Proposition 1 says 600,000 hours of Metro bus service would be cut if voters don’t approve the measure.

At best, that’s disingenuous. The facts matter when asking voters to increase car tabs from $20 to $60 and to raise the sales tax 0.1 percent on the April 22 ballot.

In fact, Metro has known since at least March 13 that better-than-expected tax collections would reduce the expected cut down to 550,000 hours. That’s because King County’s trampoline rebound from the Great Recession netted Metro $5.4 million more last year than had been projected. Metro is now forecast to receive $13.7 million more in 2014 and $15.9 million more in 2015.

First of all, the editors at the Seattle Times are the last people who can straight-facedly critique the math of others. But Jesus… talk about nitpicking. Are they seriously making the case that voters should reject Proposition 1 because Metro only faces a 550,000-hour 15.6 percent cut in bus service as opposed to the 600,000-hour 17 percent cut threatened? Accept their math and the region is still facing a devastating cut in bus service at a time there is demand to expand it (not to mention our region’s growing backlog of deteriorating roads—40 percent of Prop 1’s revenue goes to road repairs). If this is the strongest case the editors can make against Prop 1, it only emphasizes the need to pass it.

As to modestly rising sales tax forecasts, yeah, that’s true. But sales tax revenue is notoriously volatile. Indeed, this recent uptick in revenue comes on the heels of a 10-year $1.2 billion sales tax revenue shortfall from previous forecasts. So much for forecasting sales tax revenue. And with reserve funds now standing near nil, Metro has little margin of error before a couple bad quarters forces additional cuts.

Look, time has run out. Prop 1 isn’t perfect, but after two years of waiting for Olympia to stop dicking around with our transit funding, this is the only option we have left. Pass Prop 1 or cut 600,000 hours of Metro bus service—give or take a 100,000 hours.

If you’ve ever wondered what it tastes like to lick Brad Smith’s asshole, just ask the editors at the Seattle Times:

THE state’s two biggest companies took a gamble on Washington a few years back, and at long last the state has finally paid off.

Back in 2011, Boeing and Microsoft pledged $25 million apiece for the Washington State Opportunity Scholarship program. The program, run by the College Success Foundation, defrays costs for low- and middle-income students when they major in science, technology, engineering, math and health at Washington colleges. Each student is eligible for as much as $17,000.

So Boeing and Microsoft save hundreds of millions of dollars a year in state tax breaks and tax loopholes—denying the state the funds necessary to adequately fund higher education and other crucial investments—and yet we should cheer them as civic heroes for spending a mere $25 million each (0.03 percent of their $164 billion in combined 2013 revenue) to subsidize educating their own workforce?

Hooray for capitalism!

The “gamble” Boeing and Microsoft took was that this feeble gesture would provide political cover for their roles in perpetuating the structural revenue deficit that undermines Washington’s K-12 and higher education systems as a whole. And it was a gamble that has paid off handsomely under the credulous watch of our state’s editorial boards.

To be clear: I don’t endorse inserting a “tip credit” into Seattle’s minimum wage ordinance. It would incentivize wage theft, while setting a terrible precedent for other lawmakers following in our $15 footsteps. Furthermore, despite its deceptive efforts to use small businesses and their tipped employees as a sympathetic proxy, the restaurant industry has failed to make a compelling argument as to why a tip credit is either necessary or proper.

But unfortunately, I’m not Benevolent Dictator (yet!), so as long as the politicians are debating a tip credit, I thought it might be useful to talk about how we might make the tip credit better, by using it as a tool for combatting both forced part-time employment, and wage and tip theft—two employment abuses that afflict many low-wage workers.

The perfect is the enemy of the good, and all that. So to this end I offer five sincere suggestions on how to make a tip credit a better less worse public policy:

Require Strict Business and Accounting Practices:
Any tip credit we implement must be conditional on establishments meeting strict business and accounting standards intended to impede wage and tip theft (and other abuses), while facilitating the investigation and prosecution of claims thereof. Don’t want to be told how to run your business? That’s fine. Don’t claim a tip credit. It’s your choice. Simple as that.

But of course, all the worker protections in the world aren’t worth shit if there’s no mechanism to enforce them. So with or without a tip credit, Seattle’s minimum wage ordinance should include a stable and adequate dedicated revenue stream to fund enforcement of labor standards—plus criminal penalties for violations. Maybe then every Seattle worker will finally get the paid sick leave required by law?

Raise and Exempt the Monthly Threshold:
Currently, the federal tip credit applies to all employees who regularly earn more than $30 a month in tips—the same monthly threshold that was put in place when the tip credit was first created back in 1966. That’s ridiculous. But raising the monthly threshold is about more than fairness; it could also serve as a powerful tool for incentivizing employers to move part-time employees to full-time work.

For example, let’s say we implemented a tip credit, but set the monthly threshold to $860 a month—the equivalent to earning $5 an hour in tips over 172 hours a month of full-time work. But we’d also need to exempt from the credit the first $860 a month in tips as well, in order to avoid plunging tipped workers off some sort of punitive cliff. (Without the exemption, workers earning $859 a month in tips would keep all of them, while workers crossing that threshold would lose their first $860 in tips, regardless of whether they earned much more that month.)

This takes care of all those mythical $80,000 a year servers we keep hearing about. In fact, the $860 monthly threshold and exemption would pretty much apply to any full-time tipped worker currently earning over $29,700 a year.

But remember: this is a monthly threshold, not an hourly one. So a part-time employee only working half the hours would need to average twice the hourly tips—$10 an hour—in order for the employer to start deducting a tip credit. And since the value of the tip credit would almost always be greater than the cost of providing benefits, it would remove much of the existing incentive for pushing tipped employees to part-time non-benefit-qualifying work.

I’m not sure what the optimal monthly threshold is to achieve the maximum economic incentive, but I’m confident that such a number exists. Regardless, any tip credit without a substantially higher monthly threshold than federal law should be off the table.

Prorate the Tip Credit for Part-Time Workers:
This is a variation or addendum to the monthly threshold provision described above. A half-time employee should only qualify the employer for half the maximum hourly tip credit a full-time employee would. For example, if the maximum tip credit is $5.00 an hour, the prorated maximum tip credit on an employee working only 20 hours a week would by $2.50 an hour.

Again, the goal is to dangle the tip credit as a carrot for moving part-time workers to full-time work.

Calculate Tip Credit Per Shift, Not Per Pay Period:
If you don’t think some employers switch workers’ shifts around in order to maximize tip credit, then you don’t know fuck about capitalism. This may not be an issue at Tom Douglas’s restaurants, where every server is allegedly a millionaire or something, but the third shift at Denny’s is a different story. Earn a tip credit worth of tips early, and you may find yourself filling ketchup bottles while a less well tipped colleague is given the better tables in order to push her over the top too. Likewise, earn some big tips early in your pay period, and you may find yourself bumped from a good shift to make room for a co-worker who hasn’t yet qualified the employer to take the full tip credit that pay period.

Regardless, calculating tip credit per shift is just more honest and less prone to manipulation. This should be one of those required business practices mentioned above.

Tip Credit Phase-Out:
Of course the best tip credit provision would be one that phases itself out, giving qualifying restaurants and other tipped businesses a bit more time to transition into our new living wage economy, but without establishing a tip credit as any sort of credible precedent.

For example, let’s say we phase in a $15 minimum wage with a tip credit over three years: $11/hour in 2015, $13/hour* in 2016, and $15/hour* in 2017. (* Adjusted for inflation.) Then we phase out the tip credit over the next three years, one third at a time.

The maximum legal tip credit would be the difference between Seattle’s higher minimum wage and the effective minimum wage for tipped employees under state and federal law—currently Washington State’s $9.32 an hour minimum wage. Assuming annual inflation of 1.75 percent, and no hike in the state or federal minimum wage other than CPI, the minimum wage and the minimum labor cost for tipped employees would rise accordingly:

Year	WA min wage	Seattle Min Wage	Max Tip Credit	Min Labor Cost*
2015	$9.48	$11.00	$1.52	$9.48
2016	$9.65	$13.23	$3.58	$9.65
2017	$9.82	$15.53	$5.71	$9.82
2018	$9.99	$15.80	$3.87	$11.93
2019	$10.16	$16.08	$1.97	$14.11
2020	$10.34	$16.36	$0.00	$16.36

* Minimum Labor Cost assumes employee earns enough tips for employer to take the full tip credit.

It is important to note that no worker would take home in cash compensation (wages plus tips) less than column three: the Seattle minimum wage. But for tipped employees, the wage portion of that compensation could be as low as column five, with employers deducting from their minimum wage obligation up to the maximum tip credit or the employee’s earned tips, whichever is smaller. Under this scenario, the impact on labor costs at tipped establishments is substantially delayed, giving them ample time to adjust their business model to the new reality.

Conclusion:
The tip credit as implemented in 1966 was little more than a straight-up giveaway to the powerful lobbyists at “the other NRA,” the National Restaurant Association. Washington State voters have twice approved minimum wage measures with no tip credit, and given the subsequently impressive employment growth within our restaurant industry there is no good reason to second guess Washington voters now.

That said, if are going to set a precedent by accepting some sort of tip credit, the least we can do is set a precedent of making the tip credit better by both incentivizing full-time work and combatting wage and tip theft. Any and all of the proposals above would help achieve that, so I hope this post adds a little more thoughtfulness to the debate.

I’m trying to generate the appropriate outrage at the Seattle Times editorial board for endorsing a “No” vote on King County’s Metro-saving Proposition 1, but then it’s kinda like raging at my dog for killing squirrels. It’s what she does. It’s her nature. And reading this editorial is like watching the editors chase a squirrel.

VOTERS should weigh the regressive tax request embedded in King County Proposition 1 against history.

Oh no! It’s a “regressive” tax! This from an editorial board that has opposed every single progressive tax (like, you know, on income or estates) that has come before it. What a bunch of fucking concern trolls.

The pattern is clear. As in previous rounds of asking taxpayers for more money, Metro sees its shortfall as a revenue problem, rather than thoroughly confronting its well-documented unsustainably high operating costs.

And since the pattern is so “clear” and these unsustainably high operating costs are so “well-documented,” we can presume the editors are about to clearly document them.

Um… no:

Voters also should consider the near future when they face many other ballot requests, from parks to city transportation. Tax fatigue could jeopardize crucial investments such as public prekindergarten.

Yes, please consider the other future tax measures the Seattle Times will endorse “No” on. For the children!

When Washington voters in 1999 approved Initiative 695, it wiped away a vehicle excise tax that gave the King County Metro system about one-third of its revenues.

In response, King County leaders asked voters for a 0.2 percent increase in the county sales tax “to preserve and improve our bus system,” promising 575,000 more hours of bus service, as the 2000 voter pamphlet read. Voters said yes. Over the next six years, they got only 203,000 hours of new bus service.

Yes, voters did approve I-695. But not Seattle and King County voters. We rejected it. Also, the MVET that I-695 wiped away was the most progressive tax in the most regressive tax system in the nation. But I don’t remember the fucking concern trolls at the Seattle Times shedding any tears over that.

In 2006, King County leaders again asked for a 0.1 percent sales tax increase, to fund Rapid Ride expansion. Voters said yes. The promised expansion is behind schedule, and in spots is not the superfast service promised.

And in 2008 the nation plunged into the Great Recession, taking Metro’s sales tax revenue with it.

During this period, driver wages rose significantly, to the point that Metro had the third-highest-paid drivers in the country. In 2008, Metro attracted the scrutiny of the Municipal League of King County, which issued a damning report on the agency’s cost structure. In 2013, it issued a grumpy follow-up report, noting modest improvements but reiterating cost structure concerns.

A) That was six years ago. B) Don’t trust this editorial board’s numbers. Ever. And C) Unionized bus drivers! It burns!

In 2012, after sales-tax revenues crashed because of the Great Recession, Metro got a boost with a temporary $20 car-tab tax.

A temporary fee that only made up a portion of Metro’s shortfall. The rest was met through cost cuts, fare hikes, and using up the last of its cash reserves. Also, this temporary fee was intended to tide us over until the legislature approved a more stable funding source. It never did. So King County is using the only taxing authority it has.

This year, King County leaders are back again. Metro faces a $75 million deficit when that car tab expires. This time, the request is breathtaking, for its size and for the regressive nature of the proposal. A $40 hike in car tabs and another 0.1 percent sales tax increase would yield an estimated $1.6 billion over 10 years. Three-fifths of it goes to Metro, the remainder to roads, bike lanes and road diet programs.

Of course they’re back again. The temporary $20 car tab fee expired, and the reserve funds are all used up. Everybody understood it was only a stopgap measure at the time the car tab fee was passed. And the size of the package is no more “breathtaking” than the MVET authority Olympia promised, but refuses to deliver. The two tax packages raise exactly the same amount of revenue, and for exactly the same purposes.

As for the regressive nature of the tax, yes, car tabs and sales tax are more regressive than an MVET, which taxes the value of your car, and thus hits owners of more expensive vehicles harder. But what the fucking concern trolls at the Seattle Times don’t tell you is that is that the package includes a $20 rebate for low-income households, as well as a new low-income fare. And of course, nothing could be more regressive than slashing bus service!

Metro’s defenders cite recent cost-saving reforms in the 2010-2013 contract with the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 587, including a wage freeze the first year and an overall 2.3 percent increase the second year.

In the private sector, that would be called a rational response to an economic crisis. In the public sector, those concessions are deemed justification for a breathtaking new revenue increase.

Though the Municipal League is supporting Proposition 1, it does so “reluctantly,” citing ongoing concerns with cost controls and efficiencies. It urges Metro to do better, including measuring itself against peers.

But: If voters approve Proposition 1, King County would have no incentive to do the hard work of bringing down labor costs that still saddle Metro with the fifth-highest driver costs in the country, behind only Boston, Santa Cruz, Washington, D.C., and Chicago.

Let’s be clear, the Seattle Times opposition to Proposition 1 is based solely on its opposition to anything that remotely smells of organized labor. The drivers union is the editors’ squirrel. It doesn’t matter how regressive the taxes in Prop 1 are—if the measure balanced the tax hike by busting the union, the paper would happily wag its tail in approval.

Also, don’t trust the editors’ numbers. They’re almost always wrong.

If voters turn down Proposition 1, King County threatens a round of devastating bus-service cuts, many on popular routes including those carrying students to college. County and Metro leadership should not let that happen.

County leaders are trying not to let this happen. By raising revenue. Because, you know, shit costs money.

The threat ignores other options, including further fare increases and ever tighter control of administrative costs and capital expenses.

And the editors ignore the fact that Metro has been pursuing these options for years. Metro is about to raise fares for the fifth time since 2008—and it already has some of the highest farebox returns in the nation.

Cutting services is not a threat. If Prop 1 fails, service will be cut, just like it was in Pierce and Snohomish counties when they failed to raise new tax revenue.

King County has been negotiating with the drivers union for nine months. Talks are now in mediation. Both sides could earn voters’ trust with quick resolution of a contract that further drops costs.

Jesus. Again with drivers union. Squirrel!

Saying no to Proposition 1 is not a message that transit does not matter. It does. The region, particularly job-dense downtown Seattle, needs reliable bus service. Nor should a no vote be read in Olympia as a sign the state Legislature does not need to pass a transportation package that includes less regressive transit tax options. It does.

No, it’s a message that low taxes matter more than transit. At least to the editors of the Seattle Times.

Vote no on Proposition 1, and send King County government a message that Metro has more work to do on righting its cost structure before asking voters for more revenue.

Actually, all the Seattle Times is doing is sending a message that it is either too stupid to understand that time has run out, or too dishonest honest to admit it. The legislature was supposed to grant Metro MVET authority two sessions ago, but senate Republicans have persistently blocked the bill, you know, just because.

The $20 tab fee expires in June. The reserve funds are empty. Whatever other options may exist cannot be exercised in time to avoid devastating service cuts. Reject Prop 1 and Metro will slash service. That’s not a threat. That’s reality.

But look: squirrel!

Personal finance social network WalletHub ranks Washington the 6th best state in which to be a taxpayer.

Apropos to yesterday’s post on the proper context in which to put proposed local tax hikes, I’d just like to mention for the umpteenth time in my decade of political blogging that, on average, Washington is not a high-tax state.

We’re just not. There’s no debating it. Even here in tax-happy Seattle.

Is our sales tax high? Absolutely. But then, we don’t have an income tax. Are our gasoline, alcohol, and tobacco taxes some of the highest in the nation? No question. But then, we don’t have an income tax. Are our property taxes abnormally high compared to other states? Um, no. Measured by either percentage of home value or percentage of household income, our property taxes are actually quite middling. And, we don’t have an income tax!

Everybody uses a different methodology, but no matter how you look at it, Washington’s state and local taxes are consistently found to be below the national average. The Washington State Department of Revenue ranked our state and local taxes as a percentage of personal income 35th nationally in 2011, the last year for which full US Census data is available. Personal finance social network WalletHub recently released a report that finds Washington to be the 6th best state in which to be a taxpayer. Even the conservative Tax Foundation—the “think” tank Tim Eyman used to love to cite—ranks Washington 6th in favorable business tax climate and only 27th in state and local tax “burden”:

Washington’s 2010 tax burden of 9.29% ranks 23rd lowest out of 50 states, and is below the national average of 9.9%.

Of course, Washington shamefully tops the nation in regressivity, thanks to our lack of an income tax and our subsequent over-reliance on high sales and excise taxes. If you earn over a million dollars a year you pay less than 2.8 percent in state and local taxes, but if you earn less than $20,000 a year you pay an exorbitant 16.9 percent. That is outrageously indefensible. But our mildly regressive property taxes play only a minor role in tilting our tax structure onto the shoulders of the poor, while funding much of the public services on which they rely.

Look, nobody likes to pay taxes. Not even me. But when I hear parks district and Metro funding opponents cry out that our state and local taxes are already too damn high, I tell them to go try out another state! We’ve been living on the cheap the past decade and a half, deferring maintenance on the infrastructure we have and refusing to invest in the infrastructure we need. Our tax “burden” is already on par with states like Mississippi—and if we don’t start spending a little more on roads and transit and parks and schools, our infrastructure and our economy will soon be on par with Mississippi as well.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Science v. Creationism:

• Ana Kasparian: Bill Nye, Ken Ham and debating the phony “science” of creationism.
• Young Turks: Creationist signs at the Nye–Ham debate.
• Sam Seder: Guess what side Pat Robertson takes.
• Young Turks: The Bill Nye—Ken Ham debate in a nutshell.

Mental Floss: 29 misconceptions about alcohol.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

White House: West Wing Week.

Political Olympics:

• Obama: Message for the athletes.
• Ann Telnaes: Putin’s grip on free speech.
• Alex Wagner: Sochi, snow leopards and Vladimir Putin’s Russia
• ONN: Russia applauds America’s efforts to exclude gay athletes from professional sports
• Sochi welcomes Homosexuals to the Olympics
• Five Olympians turned politician
• Stephen: Sochi Reporters need to buck up
• David Pakman: Violent LGBT attacks in Russia
• Young Turks: Russia arrests gay rights activists on DAY 1.

WaPo: When politicians lash out at reporters.

Young Turks: Republican birth control jokes probably won’t help them with the female vote.

The federal government legalizes hemp!

ObamaCare means Freedom:

• Sam Seder: ObamaCare equals FREEDOM.
• Chris Hayes: The latest FAUX News lie about ObamaCare debunked.
• Young Turks: Do Republicans secretly love ObamaCare?
• Sam Seder: CBO report bad news for ObamaCare dead-enders.
• Young Turks: Cathy McMorris Rodgers’ little white lie.:
• Colbert and Krugman on the CBO report (via Crooks and Liars).
• Chris Hayes: The new GOP lie is that ObamaCare kills jobs.
• Ed: Republicans twist CBO numbers for dishonest talking point.

Maddow debunks government weather manipulation conspiracy theory.

Mark Fiore: Wheels on the tech bus.

Stephen: America’s wealthy under siege.

Political Football:

• Best of political Superbowl ads
• Ana Kasparian: Why doesn’t the NFL pay taxes?
• Thom: How the NFL is ripping us off.
• Young Turks: Turns out THIS is the Superbowl ad that made Wingers flip their lid.
• Jon can’t deal with idiots mad about Coke’s ‘America The Beautiful’ Ad
• Sam Seder: Rightwingers go BONKERS over Superbowl ad.
• David Pakman: Conservatives are angry at Coca-Cola
• Young Turks: The dumbest reactions to the Superbowl ad.
• Thom: Doesn’t the Coke Superbowl ad bring out the worst on the Right?

Maddow: Tasers, and Smith & Wesson and Sturm Ruger announce they will no longer sell new semi-auto handguns in California”.

Rocky Anderson: The US’s imperialist history of undermining democracy.

Sharpton: Now Republicans want to execute a “lawless” Obama?!?

Laura Ingraham is a Bigger Idiot than Anyone Realized!!!

• David Pakman: Laura Ingraham question’s Sotomayor ‘allegiance’ to US because her parents are Puerto Rican
• Sam Seder: Laura Ingraham’s shockingly ignorant anti-immigration attack.

Sharpton: Why do Republicans freak out over contraception?:

The Bromance: Scott Walker on Paul Ryan.

Daily Show: Selling Koch to small towns.

The Christie Minstrel Show:

• Sam Seder: When will Chris Christie resign.
• Bridge-gate: How’d we get here?
• David Pakman: He lied? Chris Christie allegedly knew about bridge closure
• Sam Seder: More shoe drops on Chris Christie.
• Ed and Pap: Christie’s inner circle turn on one another
• Bridgegate: Could Christie be impeached?
• The Big Game
• Alex Wagner: The Chris Christie saga evolves into ‘high-school’ insults
• Sam Seder: Christie is a child….
• Ed: Subpoena’s flying in N.J.

Farron Cousins with Nancy Cohen: Republican War on Women™ still a losing strategy.

Young Turks: This is why people love Elizabeth Warren.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

The Republican War on the Needy™:

• Sam Seder: The sociopaths in Congress slash food stamps.
• John Green: Should we raise the minimum wage?
• Sam Seder: Debunking the anti-minimum wage myths.
• Sharpton: Republicans block unemployment bill…again.
• Pap and Seder: Farm bill takes food from the needy
• Farron Cousins: The party of the 1%.
• Sam Seder: Republicans kill unemployment insurance (AGAIN!).
• Sharpton: Wingnut Republican says it is “immoral” extending unemployment?!?

Young Turks: What do the Republicans really think of Cathy McMorris Rodgers?

Chris Hayes: How the Koch brothers are trying to buy the Senate.

Fallon: Reads awful advice and channels Rob Ford on his last night of Late Night.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I went on a short rant about this on Twitter recently, but I wanted to expand on it more here. Last week, Keith Humphrey’s at The Reality-Based Community wrote a post entitled “The Link Between Overcrowded Prisons and a Certain Drug“, where he claimed that alcohol is largely responsible for our prison overcrowding problems, rather than the war on (certain) drugs.

That’s simply not correct, and it’s very easy to debunk. If the effects of alcohol use were responsible for the criminal behavior that swells our prison ranks, you’d see at least some correlation between alcohol use and prison populations among the different countries of the world. But you don’t. It’s not even close. According to this World Health Organization report from 2011, these are the countries that lead the world in alcohol consumption (total in liters per capita per year):

1. Moldova (18.22)
2. Czech Republic (16.45)
3. Hungary (16.27)
4. Russia (15.76)
5. Ukraine (15.6)
6. Estonia (15.57)
7. Andorra (15.48)
8. Romania (15.30)
9. Belarus (15.13)
10. Croatia (15.11)
11. South Korea (14.8)
12. Portugal (14.55)
13. Ireland (14.41)
14. France (13.66)
15. UK (13.37)

The United States consumes only 9.44 liters per capita per year, far behind these other nations. Yet we imprison a whopping 716 out of every 100,000 people. How does that compare to those countries that consume more alcohol? Here’s the same figure for each of the countries listed above:

1. Moldova (185)
2. Czech Republic (154)
3. Hungary (173)
4. Russia (484)
5. Ukraine (311)
6. Estonia (245)
7. Andorra (49)
8. Romania (156)
9. Belarus (335)
10. Croatia (115)
11. South Korea (92)
12. Portugal (134)
13. Ireland (94)
14. France (101)
15. UK (148*)

* Just England and Wales, Scotland is 146 and Northern Ireland is 99

It’s not even close. So is this because all of those other countries don’t put people in jail for homicide, rape, simple assault, aggravated assault and robbery…the types of crimes that Humphries called out as being tied to alcohol use? Of course not. Is it because Americans are somehow more predisposed to commit crimes when drunk? That’s pretty far-fetched as well. One potential difference comes from drunk driving laws, but both Australia and Canada drink more than us, have a similarly car-dependent culture, and still lock up far fewer people than we do.

As much as Humphries and his colleagues seem eager to obscure this fact, it’s the overaggressive way that America wages its war on drugs that leaves us with such a huge amount of people behind bars. Looking solely at the number of people locked up for marijuana offenses and not finding very many is a terrible way to draw conclusions about its impact.

The way that our drug war inflates our prison population is more complicated than just sending people to jail for pot. It’s about the effect that a pot arrest can have for a person down the road. In far too many cases, a pot arrest early in life becomes a wall against future opportunity for many people (mostly minorities). A felony drug conviction (often through a plea deal that allows the person to avoid going to prison initially) makes future educational endeavors and various types of employment nearly impossible. The end result is that significant numbers of people in that situation find that becoming a career criminal is their only path towards survival.

So to really understand the impact of the war on pot, you can’t just look at what percentage of the people in our prison system are there because of a pot conviction. You have to look at what percentage of the people in our prison system had their first contact with the criminal justice system because of a pot arrest. Mix that with massively punitive mandatory minimums for various drug offenses, and you have the recipe for prisons bursting at the seams with people who largely end up there by design.

None of this is to say that the violence and criminality resulting from alcohol isn’t a problem. It certainly is, but it’s very easy to look at the heaviest drinking countries in the world and see that it’s not the reason we have 25% of the world’s prison population, but only 5% of its people.

Sacred Catch: Preview of a series coming to KUOW.

Daily Show on on FAUX’s ‘The Five’.

Dennis Trainor, Jr.: Four reasons George W. Bush should be held accountable for war crimes.

Mental Floss: 33 fascinating songwriter stories.

Barbara Bush on Jeb Bush running and political dynasties

Ana Kasparian and friends: FAUX commentator calls for execution of religious minority.

Young Turks: Bizarre political ad.

WaPo: How the NSA can track Americans.

Ann Telnaes: Boehner thinks there are enough regulations.

ONN: Swift Boat Veterans for Truth clear Kerry after nine year investigation:

Jon on Iran sanctions.

Young Turks: Best and worst response to the chemical leak.

Thom: Seattle swears in a Socialist.

Roy Zimmerman: Norwedish Hate Anthem.

Stephen: Invade everything.

American Minute: 800,000 users per day.

Alex Wagner and Ezra Klein: What do new ACA numbers mean for the law?

BullyGate:

• Maddow: “Mafia like” corruption in Gov. Christie’s regime.
• Liberal Viewer: Is Gov. Christie like a mob boss?
• Sharpton: Examples of Christie being a bully
• Fallon and Springsteen: Ode to Gov. Christie (R-NJ)
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Poor Chris Christie—The Boss doesn’t like him.
• As long as you do what he says.
• Ann TelnaesChristie swimming the the fishes
• Christie miscellania
• O’Donnell: How the GOP will kneecap Christie in 2016
• Jay Rockefeller finds “Zero evidence” Christie’s bridge closings were part of a traffic study
• Alex Wagner: Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ), this is your life.
• Tweety and Bill Maher: bully
• Sharpton: How Gov. Christie lied about the GWB sabotage
• The Very Last Word: Chris Hayes: Gov. investigated.
• Matt Binder: Did Christie misuse Sandy relief?

Thoughts, rants and cold coffee.

Young Turks: What was really in the Benghazi report.

Stephen: Ridiculous French sex scandal.

Thom: America’s real welfare queens.

Red State Update: Joe Biden Day.

Obama’s NSA Reforms:

• Obama’s NSA speech.
• Young Turks: Obama’s NSA speech.
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Obama’s NSA reforms are light on reforms.

White House: West Wing Week.

Dennis Trainor, Jr.: We need a democracy to fix this shit.

Dave Pakman: Just 0.01% of climate scientists reject climate change.

Jon gets sexually harassed.

This Week in the Republican War on Women™:

• Sam Seder: Is this Republican the next Todd Akin?
• Thom with Lizz Winstead: “I have a politician in my pussy”.
• Sam Seder: GOP candidate is big on spousal rape
• Sam Seder: Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R) wants to force births to “create jobs”

Ed: Obama’s marriage is on El Rushbo’s scandal wish list.

Mark Fiore: The Climateers.

Young Turks: The IRS “scandal” is “officially” over.

Lee Camp: Moment of clarity.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Goldy has the details.

With the Washington State Legislature proving absolutely incapable (unwilling?) of addressing our transportation needs, King County Executive Dow Constantine is rolling out a proposal that would ask voters to approve $130 million a year in new local taxes to avert a 17 percent cut in Metro bus service, while providing additional money to maintain deteriorating city and county roads. Constantine will also ask the county council to approve a new low-income fare category—$1.50 per trip—that would provide a substantial discount to as many as 100,000 Metro riders who are struggling to cope with recent fare increases.

[…]

Rather than the more progressive motor vehicle excise tax (MVET)—a tax on the value of your car—that Olympia had promised King County but never delivered, Constantine is proposing raising revenue under the county’s existing but unused Transportation Benefit District (TBD) authority. The TBD would raise a combined $130 million in 2015; $80 million from a $60 annual vehicle license fee (VLF), and $50 million from a 0.1 percent increase in the county sales tax. (The $60 VLF would come after the current $20 “congestion relief charge” expires in June, so vehicle owners would only see a net $40 annual increase in their car tabs bill.) Sixty percent of the money raised would go toward filling a projected $75 million a year shortfall in Metro revenues, with the remaining 40 percent going toward city and county roads, allocated based on population.

The election to decide that will come up pretty soon, so that might be more interesting than whatever is happening, or not happening, in the legislature. I wonder if the opposition to the license fee will be out in as much force as it was in the Seattle election a few years ago. I hope it turns out better. Will the people who opposed it because it was regressive but haven’t lifted a finger to push Olympia for a better option be out again?

Will the promise of a lower bus fare make this package more progressive, so easier to swallow? In that election, there were vague promises that City Light would look into better rates for lower income people to offset some of the problems with the flat rate license fee. In this package, the lower rates are baked in. Goldy didn’t mention it in the piece and I forgot to ask him at Drinking Liberally, but I wonder what the mechanism will be for enforcing the different rate. It seems intrusive to have to prove that you deserve rate, but maybe it wouldn’t be. And with ORCA Cards, it’s probably a bit easier to just bloop the thing (THE TECHNICAL TERM) than to have to show a separate pass. Of course lower income people are probably less likely to have ORCA Cards, by and large.

Because we need another open thread.

– I Was An NFL Player Until I Was Fired By Two Cowards And A Bigot

– What the fuck, Border Patrol?

– Run Goldy.

– Hey, schools and other public institutions. Handle rape allegations better.

– Many of the people advocating this theory are religious leaders — church people who criticize government for not “allowing” the churches room to care for the poor and the jobless through private charity. Here’s their chance to put their money where their mouth is. Here’s their chance to prove they’ve been speaking truth and not just spouting hateful anti-poor garbage.

– The gun show loophole will almost certainly be on the ballot in November.

– I will have to stop using American idioms.

– OK, I’m going to be back to normal next week. I think it’ll still be Monday-Tuesday-Thursday open threads, but if you’d prefer Monday-Wednesday-Friday threads, let me know and I’ll consider it.

UW President Michael Young just got a raise to $570,000 . But, under his hiring agreement, he would receive an additional million in “deferred compensation” if he stays through 2016.

Presumably, all this compensation is based on Young’s “fitness” to serve the lofty role as a University President. In creating that contract, the Board of Regents inherently expressed a belief that Young has the temperament, wisdom, and values to lead the state’s premier institution of higher learning—to serve as the state’s intellectual commander-in-chief, if you will.

But given his recent public statement, it’s a façade. Rather than serving as a thoughtful steward of our state’s intellectual life, he has succumb to FOX News style truth-is-whatever-makes-me-feel-redeemed punditry.

And that makes him an embezzler—after millions of our tax dollars.

I know, I know, that doesn’t sound like he is an embezzler in the classic sense. I mean, it’s not like he is actually stealing money he isn’t entitled to. And, granted, he really does have a contract for his salary. But hear me out….

You see, I used to believe that accuracy and truthfulness in describing things like “embezzler” were an important part of being a writer, thinker, and all-around good citizen. But, I’ve recently learned that intellectual honesty isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. I’ve learned that sometimes it is okay to be incendiary to get people’s attention.

Where did I learn how to avoid being encumbered by truth? Why…from President Young, himself!

Last week, Young claimed that Washington State’s Guaranteed Education Tuition (GET) plan is “a strange program—a Ponzi scheme, essentially.” (ST link).

The statement is entirely inaccurate. GET is nothing at all like a Ponzi scheme. Calling it a Ponzi scheme defies the actual definition of a Ponzi scheme.

Such a statement coming from the U.W. President is absolutely stunning! Is it now okay for a University President to, essentially, lie to the citizens of the state. Is it moral for Young to belittle 150,000 families by suggesting they have invested in “vaporware” for their children that is really just the opposite (i.e. guaranteed)? Is it right for a University President to besmirch a functioning program that is the only sure financial path to a college education for many middle class Washington families?

Through a spokesperson we learn that Young’s use of “Ponzi scheme” is “a handy quip to explain what he perceives as the financial fragility of the GET program.”

The Seattle Times’ columnist Danny Westneat takes Young to task over his misleading words:

“No, GET is not like a Ponzi scheme, not at all,” said state Treasurer Jim McIntire, when I asked him about Young’s comment. “I would hope that what was going on here is that he misspoke.”

GET, or Guaranteed Education Tuition, is factually not like a Ponzi scheme, except in the most superficial ways. For starters, it’s an open book. Last month it got an “A” risk rating from the state actuary. It has $2.5 billion invested, in federal bonds and equity funds, that last year returned a healthy 16 percent.

Westneat’s “most superficial way” is, essentially, that there is investment and, therefore, risk—you know, like any insurance program, any retirement plan, loans, layaway, venture capital, real estate purchases, or even just investing in a college education. They’re all fuckin Ponzi schemes because someone is taking some kind of risk. Hell…by this definition even Young invested in a Ponzi scheme when he agreed to deferred compensation, because there is some chance he will not last until 2016. Man…what a gullible bozo to fall for that old Ponzi scheme!

But to be fair, we should hear Young’s side of the story. Westneat to the rescue:

“It’s incendiary, I admit,” Young said when I called him. “But this can be a real go-along to get-along community. You have to be a little incendiary around here to get people’s attention.”

Young said the GET program, because it’s a defined-benefit plan (it pledges to pay no matter what happens to the investments), is a ticking time bomb. He compared it to Detroit going bankrupt in part due to its crippling defined-benefit pensions.

“It’s 100 percent predictable that this is going to go south,” Young said. “It might be fine now, but let’s have this conversation six years from now. It’s going to need an infusion of capital to prop it up.”

That’s not what the state actuary predicts. But I can’t say who’s right.

I see…it’s because Detroit. Nevermind that there are 20,000 cities in the U.S. and the vast majority have not been crippled by defined-benefits pensions. There is a reason that Detroit went bankrupt, and the root cause isn’t the pension obligations!

So, that’s why I can say he is an embezzler. Not because he has stolen any money. He’s fine right now but, hey, let’s have this conversation two years from now. I’m just sayin’. And, it’s okay to be “just sayin’” in an incendiary way, because I’m just trying to get people’s attention. Think of it as a handy quip to point out the fragile position that Young put himself and the University in.

Thanks to President Young, truth be damned, we can all behave like FOX News pundits!

Almost a week has passed since the general election. One of the more interesting set of races was in Virginia, in which the Governor and Lieutenant Governor positions were won by Democrats, and the Attorney General race was narrowly in favor of the Republican Mark Obenshain over Democrat Mark Herring. Since last Tuesday, precincts across the state have been correcting their counts. As of this morning, Obenshain was up by a mere 17 votes out of some 2.2 million votes tallied.

Over the past few days, discrepancies, including a missing tally from an entire machine, have come to light in the Democratic stronghold of Richmond. A couple of hours ago, a hearing was held by the Richmond electoral board to clarify those discrepant or suspicious results in eight precincts. The rather dramatic review of those eight precincts netted Herring a total of 132 votes, giving the Democrat a lead of 115 votes.

The Republicans immediately demanded a review of ten more precincts. The request was granted, and those are being examined as I write this post. But, the first five precincts examined so far have resulted in exactly zero changes—they keep their election day tallies. I note that the Richmond electoral board is composed of two Republicans and one Democrat, so it will be hard for Republicans to concoct rational conspiracy theories around the hearings (as if “rational” has ever been a criterion!).

Of course we are still a long way from having this resolved. The loser will almost certainly request a recount, although N in Seattle tells me that the Virginia recounts rules are far more restrictive than what we are used to here in Washington. And then there will be the inevitable lawsuit a la the first Gregoire–Rossi race in Washington or the Franken–Coleman race in Minnesota.

The other likely set of changes to the vote count will come from about 500 outstanding provisional ballots. Most outstanding provisionals will come from blue-leaning areas—the great majority from Fairfax County, and a handful from Roanoke city. These will be adjudicated through tomorrow afternoon, when the final tallies must be certified. It is always dicey projecting provisional ballots, but we should expect Herring to pick up at least a thin majority of the provisional votes that are accepted. (BTW: there was a flap over the weekend about “rule changes” in who could represent provisional voters. The flap turns out to be pretty much bogus.)

So it looks damn likely that Democrats will have swept the three statewide races in Virginia. Given that the current Virginia Attorney General and failed gubernatorial candidate, Ken Cuccinelli, was openly boasting about being the first AG to sue the federal government over ObamaCare, his gubernatorial loss combined with the loss of the Republican in the AG slot would be a stunning symbolic victory!
[Read more…]