Search Results for: 10,000

Clinton	Trump
97.8% probability of winning	2.2% probability of winning
Mean of 312 electoral votes	Mean of 226 electoral votes

Since the previous analysis, ten new polls have been released. Additionally, I fixed the Vermont poll that had Sec. Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s numbers reversed. As it happens a more current poll for Vermont was released.

Only a couple of the new polls were still in the field this week, but many of them were in the field last week, so lets call this the Post-RNC, Pre-DNC benchmark.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,843 times and Trump wins 2,157 times (including the 223 ties). Clinton received (on average) 312 to Trump’s 226 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 2.2% probability of winning.

Little has changed from the previous analysis. The most noticeable is Florida, which has decreased from a 56% chance for Clinton to a 37% chance. This reflects two older polls “aging out” and one new poll added. Trump leads in two of the three current polls. Here is the polling history, which makes Trump’s lead seem plausible:

The other noticeable change is New Hampshire’s shift from blue to red. An older ARG poll “aged out” and a new NH Journal poll has been added. The NH Journal poll has a surprisingly large +9.4% for Trump. The state has been close, but perhaps something about Trump has strongly resonated with NH voters. The polling history suggests this new poll is an outlier–Trump has not led in any of the previous 26 polls in NH, and suddenly he is up by nearly double digits.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Looks like admitted lair and alleged campaign fraudster Tim “Biggest Lie of My Life” Eyman is going to get a close-n-personal tour of our criminal justice system:

Attorney General Bob Ferguson on Wednesday asked a Snohomish County Superior Court judge to hold Tim Eyman and his political committees in contempt for failing to turn over documents in as part of an investigation into the initiative promoter’s campaign finance practices.

Ferguson said he was also seeking a similar ruling from a Thurston County judge against signature gathering firm Citizen Solutions, saying that both Eyman and his committees have failed to meet a court-ordered deadline for disclosing the documents.

“Despite a subpoena and a court order, Tim Eyman continues to impede this investigation,” Ferguson said. “That’s unacceptable.”

Or…at least be fined $2000/day for every day he doesn’t turn over the subpoenaed documents.

I don’t know about you, but I’d settle for knocking a week or two off his sentence if he agreed to be frogmarched in his Darth Vader getup.

Clinton	Trump
97.1% probability of winning	2.9% probability of winning
Mean of 314 electoral votes	Mean of 224 electoral votes

The previous analysis consisted of almost entirely pre-RNC polls, and the Monte Carlo analysis, based only on polls, suggested that Donald Trump would have no chance of winning an election held then. We now have a half dozen new post-RNC polls, including polls in NC, OH, and NV. As you might expect, the post-RNC polls show Trump, now the G.O.P. nominee, doing better against the likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.

A change in this analysis is that I’ve tightened the “current poll” window from polls taken in the past three months to polls taken within the past month. This has two possible effects for each state. First, it makes the polling data more current, which is particularly important for an accurate portrayal of Trump’s performance. His image among Republicans has dramatically changed over the past 6 months, and we can expect he will start polling better now that he is the nominee. Additionally, the smaller “current poll” window will increase the uncertainty for many states just because there are fewer polled individuals included. Thus, we see some states turn from solid in the previous analysis to strong in this analysis.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,074 times and Trump wins 2,926 times (including the 205 ties). Clinton received (on average) 314 to Trump’s 224 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.1% probability of winning and Trump would have a 2.9% probability of winning.

Update: Yes…Vermont is the wrong color on account of a data entry error for one VT poll. This has been corrected for the next analysis.

Did Trump get a convention bump? It appears so.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
11.4% probability of a majority	88.6% probability of a majority
Mean of 48 seats	Mean of 52 seats

Control of the Senate is up for grabs this fall. My previous analysis showed Democrats with a average of 49 seats and Republicans with 51 seats, putting the Democrats in range to flip the Senate. That was over a half year ago, so it is time to update the analysis using a plethora of new polls released since then.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1,914 times, (and there were 9,521 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 88,565 times. If the election was now, Democrats would have an 11.4% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans an 88.6% probability of controlling the Senate. Of course, if Republicans end up in the White House, the ties would go to them.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

The most likely outcome is a 52 to 48 split with Republicans in charge. Here are some state-by-state comments.

Florida: Without question, the return of Marco Rubio to the Senate race has changed the likely outcome. Democrat Patrick Murphy has a fight on his hands. Polls occasionally favor Murphy, but the most likely outcome is a victory for Rubio (assuming they both come out on top in the August 30 primary).

[Read more…]

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes	Mean of 200 electoral votes

The day of Donald Trump’s acceptance speech is a good time for another poll analysis, I figure. There are 121 new polls added since the previous analysis. A handful of them are newly-discovered older polls, but the majority are newly-released polls. Fifty one of the polls come from a 50-state + D.C. Morning Consult series that was conducted over the preceding three months. The data are newly released, but are not necessarily the most current.

I should mention that only a few polls include surveys conducted this week, and none of them fully cover the G.O.P. convention. So think of this as the pre-conventions baseline analysis. Subsequent analyses will gradually include polls taken after the Republican National Convention. Of course, the same thing will happen following the Democratic National Convention early next month.

As with the previous analysis, a batch of 100,000 simulated elections has Clinton winning 100,000 times and Trump winning 0 times. Clinton received (on average) 338 to Trump’s 200 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Notice, however, that Clinton’s average electoral vote total has dropped a bit from a mean of 354. We should expect at least some improvement for Trump as Republican voters accept and, in many cases, embrace him as the G.O.P. nominee.

There are two striking things about this analysis compared to the previous. First, many of the “outlier” states have “fallen in line” with expectations from recent elections: Nevada has gone from Red to Blue, Arizona from Blue to Red, Colorado from Red to Blue, Kansas from Blue to Red, Missouri from Blue to Red, Mississippi from Blue to Red and Kansas from Blue to red.

The second thing is that many states have become more polarized in the direction expected. You can look at the current map and the previous map to see this easily. For instance, many traditionally blue states have become “bluer”: e.g. OR, WA, MN, WI, MA and NJ. And many traditionally red states have gotten redder: TX, AR, LA, GA, UT, and ND are examples.

In other words, the states are falling into line as we would expect from previous elections. This suggests to me that this will be a conventional election with the battlelines coming down to the battleground states of recent elections. For the moment, Clinton leads in most of those battleground states in the East (PA, VA, NC, FL), Midwest (IA, WI, MI, OH), and West (CO, NM, NV). Of these, IA is very close, but trending toward Trump in the most recent polls, and Florida shows a slight trend in Trump’s direction.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 354 electoral votes	Mean of 184 electoral votes

It has been some time since I’ve done a general election match-up using state head-to-head polls. Way back last October Hillary Clinton held a good lead over Donald Trump and would have defeated Trump with 96.6% probability. But these results were from back in the days when we had few polls matching up Trump and Clinton. We have many more now.

From a analysis of state polls through yesterday, and after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton takes 100,000 wins. On average, Clinton received 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. In other words, if the election was held now, Clinton would certainly win, and likely in a landslide.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The electoral map for Trump is grim. He loses almost all the swing states: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Iowa. On top of that, he loses Kansas, New Mexico, Arizona, and Kentucky!

The Arizona and Kansas results may be an artifact of one large outlier poll in each state. New Mexico and Kentucky are both based on single PPP polls. Still, Trump can take these four states and still loses handily.

One interesting finding is that Maine splits its districts, although the state goes for Clinton overall.

Today, Donald Trump met with G.O.P. lawmakers, telling them he would put Oregon, Washington, Connecticut and Michigan “in play.” But apparently not. Aside from turning Nevada from blue to red, and one CD in Maine from blue to red, Trump isn’t putting purple states in play at this point. It seems unlikely that solid blue states like Oregon, Washington and Connecticut are going to turn red.

[Read more…]

Remember way back in the early aughts when, Tim Eyman, tearfully confessed to being a liar in the “…biggest lie of my life”?

“I was in lie mode,” he said. “I became riddled with guilt. It was the biggest lie of my life and it was over the stupidest thing in the world. The biggest thing I’m guiltiest of is an enormous ego. Hubris.”
[…]

Eyman emphasized that he had done nothing illegal.
“This is all fricking legal …but beyond stupid,” he said.

No…”stupid” isn’t the right word…it was another LIE. At least, the Washington state AG thought so. Eyman was prosecuted and settled, paying a $50,000 fine and was permanently enjoined from acting as a political committee treasurer.

Ten years later, Lyin’ Eyman was at it again:

PDC investigators say the expenses that were reported as paying for signatures, but in fact were payments to Eyman violate state disclosure laws. Payments to him violate laws against personal use, they added.

The multiple violations are so serious the commission can’t levy adequate penalties, and the commission should send the matter to the attorney general’s office to take the case to court, they said.

And today we learn that there are many more violations of campaign finance and disclosure laws:

The latest complaint deals with an Eyman-sponsored political action committee (PAC) — “Bring Back our $30 Car Tabs — Voters Want More Choices” that sponsored and aired 21 online videos that opposed 49 candidates for the Washington State Legislature.

The ads cost $45,318 and were apparently financed by $22,500 contributions from two wealthy supporters: Vancouver, Washington, developer Clyde Holland and Camas Investment CEO Kenneth Fisher.

According to a report by the Public Disclosure Commission, 10 of the 21 videos meet the statutory definition of “independent expenditures” under state law.

The state requires footprints on so-called “independent expenditure” ads, which often fill TV screens before election day with messages that are unremittingly nasty. By off-loading negative advertising on “independent” groups, candidates can make themselves appear to be running upbeat races.

According to the PDC, the 10 Eyman-sponsored videos did not include the disclaimer: “No candidate authorized this ad.” The videos did not identify a sponsor’s name, city or state. The videos incorrectly listed the required five leading contributors to the videos.

“Bring Back Our $30 Car Tabs — VWMC,” in its filing with the state, listed as its sole purpose support for a ballot initiative — not attacking legislators. (The initiative was subsequently scrubbed.) The Eyman PAC did not file an amended form to update its purpose to attack legislators.

The PDC is throwing the disclosure rule book at Eyman.

Tim “Lyin'” Eyman has spent more than a decade personally profiting by embezzling funds intended for initiatives and flaunting Washington’s finance and disclosure laws. Isn’t it about time he be taken off the street or at least out of the political arena?

I think a long stint behind bars will offer him new appreciation for the necessity of taxes….

Matthew Filipowicz with Alice Ollstein: Restoring the voting rights of felons.

MinutePhysics: Solution to the Grandfather paradox.

GOP Drumpf-fest 2016:

• Ann Telnaes: Paul Ryan met with Donald Drumpf
• Donald Drumpf makes a YUGE announcement.
• Daily Show: Drumpf’s taxes?
• Donald Drumpf goes for ice cream.
• Jimmy Dore chats with Chairman Reince Priebus
• Stephen: No news is Drumpf news.
• Harry Reid: Trump and McConnell see women as “dogs and pigs.”
• Roll Call: GOP leaders split on supporting Drumpf.
• Bill Maher: New Rule – Lady and the Trump
• Liberal Viewer: Bill Maher v Jon Stewart—Sexist v Non-Sexist Donald Drumpf critique.
• Roy Zimmerman: The clown has taken over the party
  https://youtu.be/pmanuxq3PEM
• How to make your own Drumpf at home
• Mark Fiore: Extrumpaganza!
• Larry Wilmore: Donald Drumpf bashes Hillary Clinton
• Seth Meyers: Drumpf and White Nationalists—a closer look.
• Stephen counsels Paul Ryan to wait until he’s ready
• Daily Show: Drumpf is a uniter…of immigrants.
• James Corden: Can Donald Drumpf and Paul Ryan make it work?
• Kimmel: Rick Perry endorses Donald Drumpf.
• Red State Update: Good Republicans support Donald Drumpf.
• Stephen: Trump’s chief nickname strategist makes Stephen cry.
• Drumpf gets kicked out of Drumpf Tower.
• Drumpf’s day on Capitol Hill
• Stephen: Ted Cruz could go further to the right
• Drumpf’s psychological disorder.
• Samantha Bee: End of Cruz campaign

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard: Inside Clinton’s voting record

Who owns GPS?

Jimmy Dore chats with Bill-O-the-Clown.

That Piece of Shit George Zimmerman in the news:

• Jimmy Dore: Piece of shit George Zimmerman’s gun auction.
• Larry Wilmore: George Zimmerman shocking gun auction.
• Young Turks: “Racist McShootface” bids on asshole’s gun.

Seth Meyers with Rachel Maddow: How Clinton beats Drumpf.

Samantha Bee: Crisis Pregnancy Centers:

Matthew Filipowicz: Are Democrats over-confident on Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton?.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

State Sanctioned Discrimination:

• Stephen with Dan Savage: What’s next in the fight for LGBTQ equality.
• Michael Brooks: Loretta Lynch has strong words for N.C.; Ben Carson calls those words ‘A bunch of crap’
• Ann Telnaes: For NC, conservatives, privacy extends only to public restrooms
• David Pakman: Countersuits
• Samantha Bee: NC and 2010
• James Rustad: He wouldn’t let me use the bathroom:
  https://youtu.be/U8iMRLfiz6g

Mental Floss: 21 jobs your guidance counselor didn’t mention.

Stephen with Dan Savage: Why Dan trusts Clinton over Trump.

Bernie Sanders’ retirement plan.

NASA: ISS marks 100,000th orbit.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Its happening tonight starting at 6pm local, another FAUX News Republican Debate.

And there WILL BE BLOOD…from whereever. (Hmmmm…reminds me of this debate from the 2008 campaign.)

There will be one notable change: There will be no Donald J. Trump at this debate. It seems that Donald Trump is afraid of a girl.

I’ll liveblog when I get the chance. Use the comment thread for your own penetrating analyses.

Or, just fling your own poo.

6:08: You can stream the debate live at foxnews.com.

Jeb!: "this election is not about our pedigree"

— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) January 29, 2016

First fib of the night: Jeb Bush says he "kinda misses Donald Trump." Uh, not credible.

— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) January 29, 2016

6:09: Rubio, in his opening salvo, still comes off as irrationally angry and defensive like an adolescent. Or…as Atrios puts it…

Think rubio needs his binky

— Atrios (@Atrios) January 29, 2016

How far into the #GOPDebate do you think we'll get before FoxNews moderator asks an actual policy question?

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 29, 2016

6:15: Kasich is so general that is words get lost.

6:17: Ben Carson: “We need people who can think out of the box.” Let’s call it “Pyramid Thinking.”

Fifteen minutes into the debate, not a single question about the candidates' positions on a single issue.

— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) January 29, 2016

6:19: Earth to Marco: ISIS is NOT the most dangerous terrorist group ever. Not even close.

Ted Cruz really, really wants to be Ronald Reagan.

— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) January 29, 2016

So, Rubio is promising a ground war—"overwhelming force"— in Syria and Iraq against ISIS? Good to know. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 29, 2016

6:30: Please, please, please, Ted…WALK OFF STAGE!!!!!

6:30: Let’s sell…Rubio attacked Ted over whining about moderators inciting attacks on Ted…

6:34: Rubio seems to think his path to electoral success is his daring stance to send people to Gitmo.

6:36: Rubio is continuing with his petulant ‘tude. Sorry, Marco, it is getting really old.

6:38: Ben Carson seems to believe we would “defeat ISIS” if only we could collectively stop being politically correct. What a moron!

6:39: Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Megyn Kelly got a nose bleed?

Hey look, idiots talking about encryption issues they don’t understand again! (This is a bipartisan theme.)

— Samuel Minter (@abulsme) January 29, 2016

6:40: Someone should mention to Gov. Kasich…he is wearing his flaggy flag flag pin WAY TOO HIGH on his lapel. What a dork.

Please, please, please have @realDonaldTrump ask a question via YouTube!!!!! #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 29, 2016

6:49: Chris Christie boasts about trashing women’s health care access in NJ. Way to go tough guy! No White House for you.

6:51: Cruz unloads a big fat lie about negatives of ObamaCare. Lies, lies, lies.

6:54: O’oh oh. We are into to the “Science Denial” segment of the debate.

6:57: Rubio talks Cap & Trade with the same petulant, alarmist tone that he talks about ISIS. Hope he can find peace-o-mind in a bunker somewhere.

7:01: Now Marco is getting defensive and angry over immigration. One trick pony!

7:01: Jeb! “I’m kind of confused…”

Rubio continues to believe that saying his rivals are just as bad on immigration as he is is a winning argument.

— digby (@digby56) January 29, 2016

7:07: Ted Cruz totally dodges talking about his support of the immigration bill.

7:08: I think Rand Paul just cleaned Ted Cruz’s clock!

Seriously. Rand Paul is winning this #GOPDebate.

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 29, 2016

7:09: Ted…isn’t it about time for you to WALK OFF STAGE???

7:10: Apparently Ted Cruz flip-flopped on amnesty AND mean questions.

7:14: Jeb: “Dulce Candy is now an entrepreneur of The YouTube” (The Ghost of Ted Stevens takes notice.)

7:16: Ted: “Am not the candidate of the career politician of Washington” says the man who want to spend the next 8 years as exactly that.

There have not been substantial qs on the economy for two straight debates. Both have just been Obama/Clinton-blasting and fear-mongering.

— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) January 29, 2016

7:30: Rubio delivers an ANGRY answer on how Americans are the most generous people on earth.

7:32: Aqua Buddah talks his virtuous philosophy. (Dodging the real question.)

Rand Paul, I introduced a bill that would make all uteri national parks but we need to get government out of our lives.

— Cafe (@cafedotcom) January 29, 2016

7:34: Ben Carson: “Putin is an opportunist.” Can you say PROJECTION?

Maybe Fox should ask why so many GOP voters don't care at all that their frontrunner doesn't give a damn about conservative ideology.

— digby (@digby56) January 29, 2016

I couldn't tell, did Ben Carson just fall asleep in the middle of his own answer? #GOPDebate

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) January 29, 2016

6:39: Wait…did Chris Christie just TOTALLY dodge the “ground troops Libya” question by talking about Hillary Clinton dodging questions??

Proposal: Remove the Republican party from the ballot, but maintain the campaign as a reality teevee show.

— Chris Oestereich (@costrike) January 29, 2016

7:44: The debate turns to the topic of SEX. Specifically…a brief 20 year old affair.

Rand Paul: "I don't blame Hillary Clinton at all for this. I don't think she's responsible for [Bill's] behavior."

— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) January 29, 2016

7:49: Cruz obfuscates his unpopular (in Iowa) position on Ethanol subsidies by confusing the hell out of everyone.

Sorry, Rand Paul, but your support for forcible childbirth is literally treating women like farm animals.

— Amanda Marcotte (@AmandaMarcotte) January 29, 2016

“We are blessed with tremendous energy,” says Ben Carson, who’s in need of a little himself.

— Matt Viser (@mviser) January 29, 2016

Ben Carson is asked about ethanol, says he always liked fred better but usually doesn't watch "I Love Lucy." #GOPDebate

— Ken Rudin (@kenrudin) January 29, 2016

7:58: Carson just plagiarized 90% of his closing statement….

7:59:

Carson. WTF?!

— Goldie Taylor (@goldietaylor) January 29, 2016

8:02: Carson: “I’ve had more 2am phone calls than all here on the stage.” No shit. Get some sleep, man!

So, I guess if you held a gun to my head and told me to vote for one of these #GOPDebate candidates, I'd tell you to pull the trigger.

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 29, 2016

8:10: Megyn Kelly seems pained having an on-air conversation with Charles Krauthammer.

When #Christie said that #Hillary "won't get within 10 miles of the White House," my 1st thought was: "because she'll be stuck on a bridge."

— EJ Dionne (@EJDionne) January 29, 2016

I’m heading over to the Roanoke Park Place Tavern (our DL bar) to meet a couple of friends and watch the “debate”. Please join me if you feel so inclined. Otherwise join the fun in the comment thread below.

5:47: Talking heads populate the tube in the Roanoke.

5:53: Reince Priebus makes the laughable claim that the Republicans are the party of diversity. Riiiiiigggggghhhhht.

5:58: Goddamnit. If they are going to sing the Star Spangled Banner at the start of a debate, I fucking want a ball, referees with whistles, timeouts, injuries, and the occasional physical altercation.

6:04: What the fuck the Canadian guy dodges the question about employment and economic growth to babble about Obama not mentioning “prisoners” that Obama knew were not prisoners? What a putz!

"The next Commander-in-Chief is standing on this stage." — Ted Cruz #GOPDebate pic.twitter.com/gJ2lIoQru2

— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) January 15, 2016

6:08: Kasich is in a particularly babbly mood this evening. No idea what the take-home was from that.

6:10: Chris Christie thinks Americans are cowards!

6:12: It is funny watching Cruz and Christie try to make something evil out of the Iranian incident. It is like they’ve rehearsed and rehearsed and then when it turns out to be absolutely nothing, they couldn’t not go ahead with their talking points.

6:16: Rubio seems angry….

6:17: Carson suggests that we no longer have “airforces” in 21st century warfare.

6:19: Paris has the “strictest no-good policy”, says Trump? It seems Trump got together before the debate to share in his stash of babble pills.

6:21: Ted Cruz does not seem to understand the difference between the news branch and the editorial branch of the NYT.

6:22: Cruz admitted he made a “paperwork error”. He’s toast. G.O.P. rule #12, “Never admit to an error!”

Major point of Goldman/Cruz story isn't the filing error. It's hypocrisy of bashing Goldman, then taking their $$ https://t.co/xtOKy9SslL

— Tim Mak (@timkmak) January 15, 2016

6:27: Birferism! Birferism!

Cruz makes me feel like a natural born citizen.

— digby (@digby56) January 15, 2016

6:30 Holy fuck…Trump bringing up how well he is doing in the polls borders on psychopathology. Totally inappropriate and awkward.

6:32: Cruz delivers a zinger, “I’ve been arguing before the Supreme Court…and I am not going to talk legal advice from Donald Trump.”

The real loser from this Trump v. Cruz birther debate is the rest of the GOP field. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

Everybody besides Trump and Cruz should just leave the stage

— Joshua Green (@JoshuaGreen) January 15, 2016

6:37: Really, Rubio? Common Core is a threat to our nation? Somebody’s been dipping into the Drama Pill stash.

The Mantle of Anger would be a great name for a metal band

— Betsy Woodruff (@woodruffbets) January 15, 2016

Wait… is this the actual debate or the post-debate spin room? Because it kinda sounds like the latter. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

6:43: Someone should point out to Kasich…he is the Bernie Sanders of the Republican field.

No doubt, this will win the "Most Pathetic Line of the Debate" award. https://t.co/k7SYfiwstt

— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) January 15, 2016

6:47: So far, Donald Trump has make a total ass of himself. Ben Carson and John Kasich have engaged in quasi-random babble. Ted Cruz has offered Trump the VP slot. Christie has endorsed Rubio. Rubio has come off as an angry psychopath. And Jeb Bush has almost smiled. Once.

To be fair, the comments section is destroying America. One caps lock at a time.

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) January 15, 2016

Finally, a presidential candidate willing to run against internet comment sections. I mean it. I have waited years for this candidacy.

— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) January 15, 2016

(Terrible news for Puddybud)

Did Neil Cavuto Just Blame Obama For The Bush Financial Crisis? (Hint: Yes, he did) https://t.co/pnBL5TWu1n

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) January 15, 2016

7:03: Wait…why is Cruz babbling on about NY?

7:03: Oh…for punchline, “Not a lot of conservatives come from NY”. Trump: “Well…William F. Buckley….” Trump does a nice job modulating down to make Cruz come off as a bit hyper.

7:05: Trump goes all Rudy on us. 9/11 9/11 9/11

7:06: Jeb Bush points out that the U.S. Navy is only 1/2 the size as it was in Desert Storm. Ummm…someone should inform the Gov. that most of the decline happened under his brother.

Is Strom Thurmond a person you want to tip your hat to? #GOPDebate

— Jonathan Sitko (@JTSitko) January 15, 2016

7:13: Someone should point out to Marco Rubio during this debate that he is not running against Obama.

7:14: FAUX Business moderators went out of their way to humiliate Lindsey Graham by calling him out as an audience member. Classy!

7:15: Carson is embarrassingly clueless about all things international. Please make him stop talking…for his own sake.

Chris Christie sure does talk fast, but not particularly loud. That's why I'm voting for Rubio—he's fast AND loud. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

They make it sound like Obama and Clinton are holding hands and running through a field of daisies and making plans to destroy the nation.

— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) January 15, 2016

Christie on Obama: "This guy is a petulant child" https://t.co/4Lj5fC15cQ #GOPDebate pic.twitter.com/RaiDdBocSk

— Talking Points Memo (@TPM) January 15, 2016

Jeb Bush trying crazy strategy of talking rationally. Trump to bury him in three…two….one…

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) January 15, 2016

7:24: Please Donald….tell us you want to torture the baby of the two TERRIBLE San Bernardino people.

7:27: Again…Rubio goes after Obama instead of Clinton. Is he fishing for the KKK demographic?

If I am elected president, I will deport Ted Cruz back to Cuba. Or Canada. Or wherever.

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

Where did ISIS come from? That's the question you should really be answering, man. https://t.co/hPF3CBHnvn

— Carla Axtman (@carlaaxt) January 15, 2016

Carson: We need a group of experts (because I don't know shit about foreign or domestic policy) #GoPDebate

— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) January 15, 2016

Literally nothing Trump is saying about China right now is accurate.

— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) January 15, 2016

7:37: OH MY GWAD….CHINA DEVALUED THE YEN!!!!

Is Christie really suggesting that the best way to address our nation's $3.6 trillion infrastructure deficit is to cut corporate taxes?

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

The odds of you dating a supermodel are 88,000 to 1—much better than winning the Powerball.

— UberFacts (@UberFacts) January 15, 2016

"Hi, I'm Ben Carsen, I may be a neurosurgeon, but beyond that, ii'm a fucking moron" #GOPDebate

— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) January 15, 2016

Carson will rebuild infrastructure by not spending money. #thatshowabrainsurgeonrolls

— Sam Seder (@SamSeder) January 15, 2016

If Carson's mother was Sec of Treasury he'd try to kill the Sec of Treasury, or something. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

Oh my. Carson think Treasury Secretary controls budget surpluses/deficits.

— Dan Primack (@danprimack) January 15, 2016

But, but, but, Ted, if we "eliminate the ObamaCare Taxes", how will we fund the Death Panels???

— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) January 15, 2016

Now Marco Rubio is running against Barack Obama, the retiring Sen. Reid, and Rep. Pelosi. Earth to Marco….

— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) January 15, 2016

Um… there's more #GOPDebate coming up? Will this hell never end?

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

But how does the Cat in the Hat feel about the VAT?

— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) January 15, 2016

8:04: Kasich created a task force about a year ago. Clearly qualified to be POTUS.

They’re com­ing to kill you, Amer­ica. Dirty bombs. Cy­ber-at­tacks. Elec­tro­mag­net­ic pulses. Dodd and Frank. https://t.co/RHFFwpnFZL

— Ron Fournier (@ron_fournier) January 15, 2016

Rubio: "Doctors and engineers and fiancees are coming to kill us!" Or something. #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

This debate was over 10 minutes ago. We have now crossed the debate event horizon. No one knows what lies beyond.

— Peter Suderman (@petersuderman) January 15, 2016

I wonder what Jeb Bush is talented at doing. I’ve only seen him at debates. #GOPDebate

— Dominic Holden (@dominicholden) January 15, 2016

8:16: Holy crap…this is a Debate Moderator FILLIBUSTER!

#GOPDebate Closing statements! Kasich – I would have been a good GOP candidate 20 years ago.

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) January 15, 2016

8:22: Christie; “…fight…fight…fight…fight…fight…” Ummm…this isn’t a man I want in charge of the nuclear codes….

Ben Carson just out here selling mixtapes now. He doesn't want to be president.

— Joel D. Anderson (@byjoelanderson) January 15, 2016

Rubio: "Our rights don't come from government, they come from God." So… um… atheists like me don't have rights then? #GOPDebate

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 15, 2016

#GOPDebate J̶e̶b̶!̶ Jeb had zero energy tonight. It's like @realDonaldTrump took his exclamation mark away!

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) January 15, 2016

8:27: Trump: Iranian wise guys?!? Didn’t three of them visit Jesus?

Okay…I’m late. Long day at work and bad traffic. But here ya go!

6:16: Are you better off today then you were in 2009? Almost everyone with an income under $200,000 should say yes, unless ordinary scenescence has brought you down. And then, you have health insurance, so there ya go.

Republicans not applauding the end of the recession #SOTU

— Carl Ballard (@BallardCrl) January 13, 2016

6:20: It’s hard to take Obama seriously for this State of the Union Address…what with Eddie Munster sitting behind him and all.

Eddie Munster will not clap for the good stuff. #SOTU pic.twitter.com/L96JwKk6qd

— BUST Magazine (@bust_magazine) January 13, 2016

.@POTUS: "Anyone claiming that America's economy is in decline, is peddling fiction." (And/or, a Republican) #SOTU

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 13, 2016

6:24: Obama isn’t really introducing policy…rather he is systematically laying out the case why most Americans should be Democrats.

Oh shit – Paul Ryan shaved! I guess I have to get rid of my Paul Ryan themed facial hair… #SOTU

— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) January 13, 2016

President Obama says basic benefits should be mobile. We absolutely agree. More: https://t.co/5xQuKwikVA #SOTU

— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) January 13, 2016

Biden is cracking a joke to get Paul Ryan to smile because…well, why not. #SOTU

— Carla Axtman (@carlaaxt) January 13, 2016

6:32: Shit…now Republicans are going to start denying Sputnik…

But republicans deny DNA… #SOTU

— Lizz Winstead (@lizzwinstead) January 13, 2016

6:37: Obama mentions “tea partiers”. Still conflict averse, or he would have said “tea baggers”.

6:38: I wonder if Obama, Biden, and Eddie coordinated their ties in advance….

Thanks, Obama "Gas under two bucks a gallon ain’t bad, either." —@POTUS #SOTU

— Josh Earnest (@PressSec) January 13, 2016

Obama in “Suck it Dubya” mode. #SOTU

— Imani Gandy (@AngryBlackLady) January 13, 2016

via @Wonkette: Look who decided to show up to the office today. Hey, stranger! #SOTU pic.twitter.com/jnfwnMHfSb

— Carla Axtman (@carlaaxt) January 13, 2016

To be fair, Joe Biden spread Crazy Glue on the seats in the Republican section. That Joe! #SOTU

— Goldy (@GoldyHA) January 13, 2016

This is, strangely, both the most hawkish and least hawkish speech Obama has given in recent memory.

— Brian Fung (@b_fung) January 13, 2016

Ryan also refuses to clap when Obama makes pro-diversity points.

— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) January 13, 2016

I can't stand Paul Ryan's practiced smugness. #SOTU #SOTU16

— Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) January 13, 2016

I can't stand Paul Ryan's practiced smugness. #SOTU #SOTU16

— Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) January 13, 2016

6:58: What the fuck is up with dwelling on Kim Davis? She is a circus freak. Only deserves about 3 seconds….

Radical Obama assumption: The American people are a more intelligent audience that the majority in Congress.

— joel r. connelly (@joelconnelly) January 13, 2016

Ok for serious: Good job, President! 9/10. Would vote for again.

— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) January 13, 2016

Starbucks responds to War-on-Christmas-Cup-gate.

The adventures of Young Hillary: One Woman Play.

Seals help scientists study climate change in Greenland.

Mental Floss: 52 facts about popular cities.

Paris Attacks Turn Wingnuts into Blubbering Cowards:

• Mark Fiore: Keep Calm and Panic On
• SNL tribute to Paris.
• Parris attacks: Three misguided reactions.
• PsychoSuperMom: Where is the Judeo in Judeo Christian?
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the Syrian refugee debate
• Janeane Garofalo and Sam Seder: Obama says refugee debate is un-American
• Thom: How Western militarists play into the hands of Isis
• Maddow: Wacko Republican refugee bill passes House
• Ugly Islamophobia after Paris attacks.
• David Pakman: Attacks notwithstanding, France will admit more Syrian refugees.
• Huh…France is still welcoming Syrian refugees.
• Trevor: The three stages of political grief.
• Stephen: No country for anyone not already here.
• Thom to Republicans: Please stop helping ISIS
• Nancy Pelosi on Anti-Syrian refugee bill.
• John Oliver on Paris attacks
• Obama slams GOP on refugees.

Adam Ruins Internships.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.

The Adventures of Young Hillary: Sleepover games.

Stephen does Bill Maher

The 2016 Cascade of Clowns:

• Seth Meyers: Late night Republican debate.
  https://youtu.be/Ky7JAn-tRJ4
• Inciting fear isn’t presidential
• Friday hot takes
• David Pakman: Goodbye Jindal
• In Memoriam: Jindal campaign
• Janeane Garofalo and Sam Seder: Ted Cruz issues school-yard taunt
• Farron Cousins: Why does Rubio get a free pass for his scandals?
• Young Turks: Chris Christie still thinks terrorists were Syrian refugees
• Cowards Paul Ryan and Donald Trump say no to refugees
• Larry Wilmore: Ben Carson’s messed-up map.
• David Pakman: Carson’s Sarah Palin moment.
• Sam Seder: Ben Carson needs briefings to “make him smart”
• Trevor: Ben Carson’s public break-up.
• David Pakman: Ben Carson warns of the severe dangers of free college
• Trump and Carson insanity: ‘Register’ the Muslims and keep out the ‘dogs’.
• Pap & Farron Cousins: Trump calls American’s stupid. (And if he’s winning…he might be right!)
• Sam Seder: Trump wants to database all U.S. Muslims. It’s just “Good Management.”
• Maddow: Worlds collide…Reading poetry at a Donald Trump rally
• Stephen: Start getting used to saying “President Trump”.
• John Mulaney (with Seth Meyers): Donald Trump to a really good family feud contestant
• Young Turks: Donald Trump wants to tag Muslims like cattle
• Maddow: Trump endorses tracking Muslims in U.S.
• Sam Seder: Jeb Bush is pretty sure people can prove they are Christian
• Trevor: Mike Huckabee’s food-based politics:

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about the brain.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins: Is there any group the FAUX News doesn’t hate.

Unintended Consequences:

• Matthew Filipowicz: Study suggests over 100,000 women have induced their own abortions after clinic closures
• David Pakman: Back alley abortions in Texas.
• Young Turks: Self-induced abortions in Texas.

Stephen: You know nothing, Barack Obama.

The adventures of Young Hillary: Teaching the less fortunate.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Pres.	Senate to Dems*	Senate to GOP
Democratic:	43.3% probability	56.7% probability
Republican:	5.6% probability	94.5% probability
	Mean of 49 seats	Mean of 51 seats

It is way too early to make much of anything out of the 2016 Senate head-to-head polls. After all, we still have a primary season to go before we know who will be on the ballot. Still…there is just enough polling to give us an “early-first-quarter score” in the Senate races.

Currently, the Senate is controlled by Republicans, who hold 54 seats. Democrats hold 45 seats, plus Maine’s Sen. Angus King caucuses with the Democrats. In 2016, there will be 34 senatorial elections, all of the Senate’s “third class.” (There could be additional special elections as well, but I am not aware of any right now.) The current crop of Senators were elected in 2010, a Republican wave off-year election. Six years later, Republicans find themselves with 24 seats to defend and Democrats with 10 seats to defend, in a presidential election year.

I’ve spent a bit of time trying to divine the candidates most likely to appear on the ballot. In some cases, it was easy. Rand Paul will appear as the G.O.P. nominee in the Kentucky race. (You know…assuming his struggling presidential campaign continues its current trajectory.) Incumbents tend to get their party’s nomination, although there are retirements, like Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV). In some states, front-runners are obvious, like in Wisconsin where incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) will almost certainly go up against former Sen. Russ Feingold (D). When there are multiple candidates, I’ve tried to use primary polls, newspaper accounts, FEC numbers, and other sources to find the strongest or most likely candidate to advance to the general. You can see which candidates I’ve advanced to the general by looking at the polls page.

I’ve found state head-to-head polls in 15 races and no polls for 19 races. Polled states tend to be the ones with the most competitive Senate races OR states with some other importance. For example, there are many polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, which are the early caucus/primary states. I’ve found a total of 69 polls to date, so clearly there are multiple polls for many of the 15 races. States without polling are assumed to go to the party currently holding the seat.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 5,553 times, there were 37,718 ties, and Republicans have a Senate majority 56,729 times. In the event of a 50 seat tie, the President’s party controls (U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 3). If Sec. Hillary Clinton wins, Democrats have a 43.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 56.7% probability of controlling the Senate. If Clinton loses, Republicans would almost certainly (94.5% probability) maintain control of the Senate.

The good news for Democrats is that they are likely to gain 4 seats and have a good shot of taking control if they win the presidential election. The good news for Republicans is that they are still more likely than not to control the Senate. They can either lose 4 or fewer seats or lose 5 seats plus win the presidential election.

Let’s examine a few of the races.

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