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2018 Midterm Election Thread

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Game on, boys and girls! It’s election day, and the polls have closed in half the states.

Kindly note that this is an election thread. Keep on topic or kindly shuttle your ass to the open thread below.

I’m headed to Drinking Liberally now, so surprise me with your insights in the comment thread.

6:01: Well…at least Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) has won!

6:04: Beto still leads by a hair. And Klobuchar (D-MN) has won.

6:05: Looks like Felons in Florida are going to be able to help elect the next President!

6:07: Cool…I am just getting caught up here after arriving at DL. Hey…a D is leading in NE for Gov? Interesting.

6:16: My early assessment is that this is not really a blue wave. More like a blue splash. There are some very pleasing results, like Ted Cruz trailing a punk rocker–Ted Cruz is a weasely punk. But many races are going, more or less, as expected.

6:32: Oh…cool.

Many of you hear “Donna Shalala” and think, “Oh yeah, Clinton’s HSS secretary.” But Donna Shalala was the Chancellor of the University of Wisconsin—Madison when I earned two degrees. She signed my diplomas. I’ve chatted with her. So…cool.

6:59: WOW! Kansas! Gov!

7:21: MSNBC is now calling the House for Democrats.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Samantha Bee: Larry Krasner—Finally a good DA?.

Robert Reich: The American social contract

Nancy Pelosi: Chocolate taste test.

Vox: NAFTA, explained with a toy car.

The Orange Nationalist, Dotard Трамп, and Other Sociopaths:

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses.

Jim Jefferies: Staying healthy is actually killing us.

Wendover: The magic economics of gambling.

Comics discuss the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting.

VOTE!

WaPo: How social media is changing the presidency

The Atlantic: Holocaust survivors remember Kristallnacht.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Stephen: Leader Nancy Pelosi makes a midterm prediction.

The Altlantic: You should be worried about your DNA privacy.

Racists Suck:

TED: How I climbed a 3,000-foot vertical cliff.

WaPo: The life of the first woman Supreme Court justice.

Roy Wood, Jr.: Black Floridians who made history.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Ari Melber: First amendment doesn’t protect Alex Jones defamation.

The Atlantic: What is “normal”, what is “different”?

Real Engineering: Can we terraform the Sahara to stop climate change?

Bill Maher: I don’t know it for a fact…I just know it’s true

The Tremendously Big and Tremendously Wet Dotard Трамп And Friends:

Rachel Maddow: Judge more annoyed than charmed by Maria Butina boyfriend duet video.

Stephen: To boldly advertise where no one has advertised before.

Minute Earth: Why malaria isn’t just a tropical disease.

Supremely Fucked:

WaPo: Ben Folds writes a song about Rod Rosenstein:

Chris Hayes: Who is being held accountable for poisoning the people of flint?.

Jimmy Dore: Vince Vaughn burns his Nike’s in protest of Kaepernick commercial.

The Atlantic: America has always been a tribal society.

The life of Bryan.

Just Neil deGrasse Tyson:

New Yorker: Do personality tests like Myers-Briggs actually work?

Michael Che demands more political speeches at the 70th Emmy awards.

Is Colin Jost fit to host the 70th Emmy awards?

Michael Che wants musical numbers over jokes at the 70th Emmy awards.

Jim Jefferies: Has Jim found God?

Vox: Why we say okay.

The Atlantic: The problem with parents, kids, and social media.

Mid-Terms Are Coming:

James Cordon with Professor Robert Winston: Science tricks.

Bill Maher: New rule—scary socialism!

Wendover: How fighting wildfires works.

Stephen: Porn wars with Tucker Carlson and Michael Avenatti.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Samantha Bee: Fascists to watch 2018

WaPo: Wisconsin’s lieutenant governor candidate wants people to know that he is alive.

The Atlantic: Why the U.S. should provide universal basic income.

Seth Meyers: Senator Elizabeth Warren talks about the Democratic Party’s shift to the left.

Slate: Attention, cyclists, it’s fine for non-bikers to use the bike lane.

Vox: How ID laws can put trans people in danger.

The Atlantic: Is the dinosaur–apocalypse story wrong?

Trevor: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman” and fighting the rise of racism in the Трамп era.

WaPo: FAUX News’ latest fringe theory—Robert Mueller is more dangerous than Vladimir Putin

GQ: Why bad cops are almost never held accountable.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Puppets:

Amber Ruffin remakes art created by problematic men.

The Atlantic: Can the undocumented “earn” citizenship?.

WaPo: How “Respect,” Aretha Franklin’s iconic song, came to be

Jim Jefferies replaces his weatherman.

Mental Floss: The 2000s internet.

Trevor: Why people uncomfortable with breastfeeding should suck it up.

Seth Meyers: Spike Lee on the connection between Charlottesville and BlacKkKlansman.

Kurzgesagt: Wormholes explained.

Stopping Gun Violence in America:

Vox: Why is California always on fire?

Trevor: Washington D.C.’s Unite the Right rally is a flop and Leo Deblin comes to the rescue.

Seth Meyers: The kind of story we need right now—waitress body slams groper.

The roots of racism in Charlottesville.

Samantha Bee: Undocumented immigrants make your food.

Minute Physics: The twins paradox hands-on explanation.

The Atlantic: A surprising U.S.-Canada border dispute

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

July 2 Open Thread

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This administration is still depressing as all hell. But! For the first time in a long time, I see maybe something. Being with 10000 people who oppose kidnapping children. I would probably feel better if my country wasn’t stealing children from their families, but I saw a little something.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Jimmy Kimmel: Senator Elizabeth Warren on health care and minimum wage

Young Turks: Iowa passes most restrictive abortion law in the US.

David Pakman: Megyn Kelly’s NBC media implosion.

Full Frontal: Don’t be so sure about that Blue Wave.

Farron Cousins: Paul Ryan’s attack on House chaplain blows up in his face.

Bill Maher interviews Mayor Michael Tubbs (Stockton, CA), America’s youngest mayor in a city over 100,000.

Amber Rufin raps a response to Kanye West’s slavery comments.

The Dotard Трамп And His Dirty :

NOVA: Why there’s no climate hoax.

Jimmy Kimmel: Senator Cory Booker refuses to hate the other side.

Full Frontal: May the fourth be with Chuck Todd.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses.

Stephen: Profiles in Discourage—Foster Friess says the rich should “self-tax”.

Som’emz Da Madder Wid West Virginia:

  • Young Turks: Is this the worst campaign ad of all time?

  • Joy Ann Reid: Don Blankenship defends “Chinaperson,” hits “Cocaine Mitch”
  • Sam Seder: GOP candidate has the most awkward, low IQ campaign ad of all time
  • Stephen: Profiles in Discourage—Blankenship’s ‘Cocaine Mitch’ advertisement.

    • Vox: This anti-sex trafficking law could end internet freedom.

    Jimmy Dore: John Boehner: “I’m gonna be selling puff…”

    Newsbroke Q&A: “Is Francesca a COMMUNIST?”

    Vox: George H.W. Bush’s broken promise that changed the Republican Party.

    Trevor: Teachers take to the streets & Kanye West says slavery was a choice.

    Samantha Bee: Facebook sucks.

    A Wolf Roast:

    Daily Show: Gregory Watson’s fight for the 27th Amendment.

    Jim Jefferies: Hey, “Incels,” women don’t owe you anything:

    Bonus Check: #GOPTaxScam.

    Anna: A slave who sued for freedom.

    Samantha Bee with a message for Dennis Miller.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    HA Bible Study: Revelation 13:1-2

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    Revelation 13:1-2

    And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.

    And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.

    Discuss.

    SOTFS Address

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    President Shithouse is going to talk reel gud about himself in a few minutes. This thread is your sandbox.

    5:59: Melania sends a message to President Shithouse.

    6:06: The Dotard is in the house.

    6:11: Why is the Dotard clapping? And swaying like he has to pee?

    6:11: It looks like Melania is standing next to two men—One really short and one in uniform. No doubt, this will really piss off President Shithouse.

    6:18: “If there’s a porn star, we tap it!”

    6:25: What what? The individual mandate is the “core of ObamaCare?” Hardly. I am old enough to remember Obama campaigning AGAINST a mandate. Hillary was FOR the mandate. Ultimately Congress put it in to ensure enough young, healthy people signed up to reduce rates for everyone. ObamaCare lives, but President Shithouse and the Republicans own forthcoming premium increases.

    6:32: “…and why we proudly stand for the National Anthem.” So now we are getting into the “racist fuck” part of the talk.

    6:36: Seems to me that no federal employee undermines trust in the government than The Dotard himself. “Mr. President, it is time to resign.”

    6:37: “America is now a net exporter of energy.” Yeah…that was the case under Obama.

    6:55: The Dotard brings out the token Hispanic person…. Sorry, Shithouse, you aren’t going to get the Hispanic vote.

    6:59: Republicans are all into pillars now. I’m old enough to remember when Barack Obama took all kinds of shit about the pillars at his nomination acceptance speech.

    7:07: Man…that story about the cop who adopted the baby of the drug addicted woman was creepy! Is that the best heart-lifting story they could fucking find?!?

    7:17: …”and we no longer tell our enemies our plans”…unless you consider Russia our enemy.

    7:18: Shorter Drumpf on U.N.: “We bought your votes and you voted against us, damnit!”

    7:19: …”sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela”…but not Russia!

    7:26: Maybe I missed something. What was the point of the protracted anecdote about he Korean guy with crutches?

    7:32: That was a LOT of windbaggery empty rhetoric.

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    New Scientist: How climate change can bring cold snaps.

    VOX: How the US failed to rebuild Afghanistan.

    The Opposition with Jordan Klepper: An even “specialer” prosecutor to stop Robert Mueller

    Young Turks: Republican Governor tied woman up in his basement.

    Samantha Bee: No one questions her dishonesty.

    Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

    President Shithole Dotard Трамп And His Band of Treasonous, Lying Whiners Stable Geniuses:

    Daily Show: The price of social change—Why California is paying gun offenders.

    Minute Physics: How we know black holes exist.

    VOX: The new US tax law, explained with cereal.

    Sam Seder: Kansas lawmaker stupidly claims blacks abuse pot because it’s “in their character”

    Full Frontal: Road to 2018—Stacey Abrams

    The FISA bill in 60 seconds.

    President Oprah:

    VOX: The real reason Amelia Earhart is so famous.

    Francesca Fiorentini: The powerful will erase you in 2020:

    The Opposition with Jordan Klepper: A crash course in Breitbart’s conspiracy journalism, Pt. 1

    The Opposition with Jordan Klepper: A crash course in Breitbart’s conspiracy journalism, Pt. 1

    Samantha Bee: No country for pregnant women.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Alabama Election Thread

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    Will you be singing Sweet Home Alabama? Or will Alabama Get Away? Either way this is the place to discuss tonight’s Yellowhammer special election. If it ain’t (broadly) about this election, take that crap to the previous open thread.

    I’ll be (*ahem*) Mobile on my way to Roanoke Park Place Tavern, and may post random observations and whatnot as the spirit moves me.

    Here’s one for the geeks among us:

    5:56: AP has Moore leading for the first time, 7% reporting….

    6:02: I wish Washington election results would trickle in like this. This “one ballot dump a night” business sucks!

    6:05: With 16% precincts reporting, Moore’s lead has shrunk to +2%.

    6:10: Now 21% reporting, Moore’s lead is up to +5%

    6:20: 33% in, Moore up by 5%.

    6:26: Now 40% in and Moore is still up by 5%.

    6:33: Yep…with 50% of precincts reporting, Moore’s lead over Jones has shrunk to 3%. Remember, bigger and more urban precincts usually report later….

    6:40: Moore’s lead is back up +7% with 62% in.

    6:57: Now 75% reporting and Moore’s lead has shrunk to +3% (51% to 48%).

    7:03: Now 77% and Moore’s lead shrinks to +2%.

    7:06: And at 81%, Jones is down by -1%.

    7:09: And with 85%, Jones is almost even with Moore at 49% each. Jones is still down about 5,000 votes out of a million and some votes.

    7:13: NYT still has Jones winning with a 73% probability by a margin of 2.1%

    7:15: And as I typed that, the NYT “needle” jumped giving Jones a probability of 84% and a final 2.7% margin.

    7:19: AP has 86% of precincts and Moore’s lead is about 500 votes.

    7:22: Now we have 88% reporting and Jones is up by 8,000 votes. The NYT web site has Jones probability of winning >95%.

    7:37: I love the fact that Jones’ margin of victory is LESS THAN the number of write-in votes. In so many ways, this qualifies as a STRANGE election!

    7:52: If you are an Alabamian, child molestation is worse than being a Democrat. VERY SLIGHTLY WORSE!

    Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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    DLBottlePlease join us this evening for some chat (*ahem*) Sessions over a drink at this weeks episode of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Stop by and offer your two percent (on income above $250,000 if you file as single or $500,000 if filing jointly).

    We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

    https://youtu.be/UvbA0N7xFu4

    https://youtu.be/u_qOnuaLsYQ

    https://youtu.be/3ATnIls5HSM

    https://youtu.be/fD91dTeEzqE

    Can’t make it to Seattle? Check out one of the other 234 chapters of Living Liberally, including 23 in Washington state, five in Oregon and three in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

    #WomensMarch

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    Across the U.S. today, people are marching in support of women. Why? Because we now have a government run by assholes who are openly hostile to women.

    Exhibit one: The pussy-grabber-in-chief. That’s right, we are living in bizarro-world where the so-called leader openly boasts about using his position to sexually assault women or walk in on young women changing clothes at their workplace. It’s disgusting.

    Americans are responding:

    Women’s marches across the U.S. (@billmckibben)

    Women’s march brings far more people to D.C. than Drumpf’s inauguration. Sad!

    Here in Seattle we have the “Womxn’s March on Seattle” that starts with a rally at Judkins Park, followed by a march to Seattle Center at 11am. Something like 30,000 people are expected to participate. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is an underestimate.

    Judkins Park (@KIRO7Seattle)

    Judkins Park (@fwd2utopia)

    To join the demonstration, check out this information.

    Follow-up: Poll aggregation and more on bogus pollsters

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    I was hoping for a bunch of last minute polls being released today, but nada. Perhaps they were all released all last night.

    I’m a bit unhappy with the way this election cycle is ending. Since I started aggregating state presidential polls in 2007, one of my objectives has been to see how accurate a simple binomial model can be at predicting the presidential election, using only polls as the data. The model did very well in the 2008 and 2012 cycles.

    It is also a more difficult business in 2016. Obviously, the demise of the norm that there be a landline in nearly every home is an emerging problem. Many pollsters supplement landline polls with a cell phone sub-sample. This is expensive, because these calls must be done by people. Interactive voice or digit response polls aren’t permitted for cell phones.

    A more difficult problem for my analyses is that there has been a proliferation of internet-based polls. You’ve probably seen them: YouGov, Insights West, Google Analytics, Ipsos/Reuters, SurveyMonkey, to name a few. Most of these polls work by surveying from a very large opt-in panel, and then mathematically adjust the results to match a demographic profile. So, if not enough 50-60 year old White women respond, the few who do respond are, essentially, cloned.

    I’m sure this technology can work very well with a huge panel and careful background work to perfect the methods. It may be that some internet pollsters, say YouGov, have done so. But for every YouGov, there are probably a dozen internet polls that haven’t, and they frequently have bizarre results. I don’t want to be in the business of making subjective judgments about whose polls are “good enough” to accept. Therefore, I simply exclude polls that survey internet panels.

    Another problem is that internet polls generally don’t have well defined sample sizes. My analyses need to know the “effective” size of each poll to work. “Effective” means the equivalent number of individuals who, if live-polled, would generate the same statistical information as the internet poll. This should, in principle, be easy to estimate using simulation methods like bootstrap resampling, but I am not aware of direct analytical solutions (which would, at a minimum, have to use the distribution of weights). In any case, “effective” sample sizes don’t see to have made it in internet polls yet.

    Unfortunately, a number of pollsters switched—sometimes right in the middle of the election season—to using an internet panel. Pollsters that come to mind include Rasmussen, Gravis, and Public Policy Polling. These three pollsters make up a substantial fraction of the total state polls done in any season. I suppose I should accept an internet panel as an approximation of the cell phone sub-sample in a poll, but I didn’t this year. Rules and all that….

    Finally, there is the bogus pollsters. Regular readers may recall my fisking of a bogus Pennsylvania poll earlier this year. That was easy…they were amateurs. But the issue could be difficult to identify in real time with a bit more competence.

    If you haven’t read Goldy’s takedown of Remington Research and, to a lesser extent, Trafalgar Group, read it now. This development has me down, because I am now in the predicament of ignoring suspicious polls, or playing “poll cop,” something I detest.

    I frequently laugh (and mock) right-wingers and their beefs with individual polls or pollsters—think “Unskewed Polls” from 2012. The charges usually amount to nothing but hating the fact that their candidate is losing. Get a grip!

    But now, that is what I seem to be doing—calling out a pollster (or two) for bogus polls. There is one difference: my motivation is to be as accurate as possible. Bogus polls fuck with me, whether they come up showing the Democrat up or the Republican up. If lefties launched an effort to dump bogus pro-Democrat polls on the market in order fuck up the aggregated results, I would call the out as well, because their bogus polls would fuck with the accuracy of my polling analyses.

    As an aside, remember Birther Queen Orly Taitz? She wrote a blog post a couple of days ago calling upon both Remington Research and Trafalgar Group to swoop into New Hampshire to stop the polling trend there. Here is part of her screed:

    However, Democratic Party came up with an absolutely bogus poll from WMUR/UNH, showing Trump behind by 11%, which lowered his average from winning to being 0.6% behind and his total electoral votes from winning 270 to 266. This is a clear psy-op. You can see that all the polls showed Trump leading from 5% to Clinton leading by 1%. This poll showing Clinton ahead by 11% in NH is a complete farce. By the way, Republican senator, Kelly Ayotte, is leading by the same margin and the same WMUR/UNH came with a similar bogus poll to show her far behind.
    Remington and Trafalgar pollsters need to post a true poll for New Hampshire ASAP. This poll will move Trump into the lead in NH and his total electoral votes will go up from 266 to winning 270!
    Readers of Taitz report are asked to call Remington and Trafalgar pollsters and urge them to publish asap a true poll for New Hampshire

    Huh…

    So, now I am in a position of having TWO sets of results. One set based on my stated rules and assumptions set out over a year ago. And I have the results excluding Remington Research and Trafalgar Group, whose polls I strongly suspect are bogus. Fuck, I hate that!

    • If these two pollsters are legit (full write-up): Clinton wins with 84.5% probability with, on average, 282 votes. The most likely outcome is 276 electoral votes with a 9.03% probability
    • If they are bogus, as I suspect (full write-up): Clinton wins with 98.7% probability with, on average, 310 votes. The most likely outcome is 305 electoral votes with a 5.09% probability

    With any luck, we’ll know which version corresponds most closely to reality very soon. Finally, here are the relevant graphics, side by side. Click for a larger image.

    bothdists

    bothmaps

    bothpmaps

    bothtrendplots

    Poll Analysis: Democrats make gains

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    Senate Democrats*
    Senate Republicans
    39.2% probability
    60.8% probability
    Mean of 49 seats
    Mean of 51 seats

    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Saturday’s analysis showed control of the Senate to likely remain in the hands of the Republicans. The Democrats had only a 12.1% probability of taking the Senate. I’ve added about 20 new polls since then. I’ve also shortened the “current poll” window to 10 days (if only to match the Presidential election).

    Two days later, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 12,350 times, there were 26,823 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 60,827 times. In other words, Democrats have a 39.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 60.8% probability of controlling the Senate.

    There has been a few interesting changes.

    • Florida: Democrat Patrick Murphy is trying to oust Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Rubio has held the lead in recent polls, but his margins have shrunk. Rubio’s chances have shrunk from near certainty to a 96% probability. This is still quite good, of course.
      senate07oct16-07nov16florida2

    • Missouri: Democrat Jason Kander is going after Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R) seat. We lose three old polls and gain two new ones for a total of 6 polls. Two are tied; Blunt leads by small margins in three polls. One poll has Kander up by +0.7%. This has shifted the Democrat’s chances from 6.6% to 42.9%.
      senate07oct16-07nov16missouri2

    • Nevada: We have 2 current NV polls in the open seat race between Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Joe Heck (R). The most recent poll has Cortez Masto up +1%; the other poll has Heck up by +2%. So The Democrat’s chances have risen from 7% to 43%.

      senate07oct16-07nov16nevada1

    • New Hampshire: The state is just close, close, close. Of 7 current polls Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) leads by small margins in four, and Maggie Hassan (D) leads by small margins in three. The analysis suggests Hassan has a 33% chance of taking the seat.

      senate07oct16-07nov16new_hampshire2

    • North Carolina: This is another very close state. The four current polls give two to Sen. Richard Burr (R) and one to Deborah Ross (D); the last one is a tie. Consequently, Burr’s chances of keeping his seat has dropped from 85% to 72%.

      senate07oct16-07nov16north_carolina1

    • Wisconsin: This is the only significant gain for Republicans. Democrat Russ Feingold has been leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R) for the great majority of polls. The three “current” polls have Feingold up, but with smaller margins than the past (+1%, +2%, and +3%). Johnson’s chances have increased from 14% last Saturday to 22% now.

      senate07oct16-07nov16wisconsin1

    Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

    This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

    • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 39.2%, Republicans control the Senate 60.8%.
    • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.2 ( 1.1)
    • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.8 ( 1.1)
    • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (47, 51)
    • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (49, 53)

    Expected outcomes from the simulations:

    • Democratic seats w/no election: 35
    • Independent seats w/no election: one
    • Republican seats w/no election: 30
    • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
    • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
    • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
    • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: three

    This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

    Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
    Safe Democrat 43
    Strong Democrat 4 47
    Leans Democrat 1 1 48
    Weak Democrat 0 0 0 48
    Weak Republican 1 1 1 52
    Leans Republican 4 4 51
    Strong Republican 5 47
    Safe Republican 42

    This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

    # Sample % % Dem Rep
    State @ polls size Dem Rep % wins % wins
    AL 0 0 (0) (100)
    AK 1& 320 23.4 76.6 0.0 100.0
    AZ 6 4147 43.6 56.4 0.0 100.0
    AR 1& 608 38.2 61.8 0.0 100.0
    CA 1 552 63.4 36.6 100.0 0.0
    CO 3 1681 54.3 45.7 99.3 0.7
    CT 1& 872 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
    FL 4 2739 47.6 52.4 3.7 96.3
    GA 3 2008 44.1 55.9 0.0 100.0
    HI 0 0 (100) (0)
    ID 1& 823 29.5 70.5 0.0 100.0
    IL 1 450 60.0 40.0 99.9 0.1
    IN 2 884 48.3 51.7 23.6 76.4
    IA 3 1804 37.1 62.9 0.0 100.0
    KS 1 535 36.4 63.6 0.0 100.0
    KY 1& 566 41.5 58.5 0.2 99.8
    LA 1& 794 34.6 65.4 0.0 100.0
    MD 1& 614 66.6 33.4 100.0 0.0
    MO 6 4595 49.0 51.0 17.1 82.9
    NV 2 1332 49.6 50.4 42.9 57.1
    NH 7 4312 49.5 50.5 32.6 67.4
    NY 1 567 72.8 27.2 100.0 0.0
    NC 4 2777 49.2 50.8 28.2 71.8
    ND 0 0 (0) (100)
    OH 3 2342 38.6 61.4 0.0 100.0
    OK 0 0 (0) (100)
    OR 1& 558 62.7 37.3 100.0 0.0
    PA 8 4945 52.4 47.6 99.3 0.7
    SC 1& 941 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
    SD 1& 534 39.3 60.7 0.1 99.9
    UT 2 778 28.7 71.3 0.0 100.0
    VT 1& 559 69.1 30.9 100.0 0.0
    WA 1 641 56.8 43.2 99.2 0.8
    WI 3 2778 51.0 49.0 78.1 21.9

    @ Current party in office
    & An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
    *Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

    Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

    Poll Analysis: Playing with questionable polls

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    Clinton
    Trump
    84.5% probability of winning
    15.5% probability of winning
    Mean of 282 electoral votes
    Mean of 256 electoral votes


    Electoral College Map

    Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Electoral College Map

    Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

    Yesterday’s analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton (D) leading Donald Trump (R) with 290 EVs to 248 EVs. If the election was held yesterday, we would expect Clinton to win with an 86.8% chance.

    Since that analysis there have been about 28 new polls release that satisfy my inclusion criteria. I should point out, that the new polls include eight new polls from Remington Research (R) and four from Trafalgar Group (R). If the significance of this escapes you, read Goldy’s post.

    One of the things I am going to do in this analysis is do two analyses: one with these two pollsters included, and one that excludes all Remington and Trafalgar polls. Pick the one you wish.

    Which one is right? It is hard to say. I hate accusing a pollster of producing bogus polls. I’ve had numerous people complain about including this poll or that poll, and I ignore them. The entire premise of my effort is that by aggregating polls broadly, any “house effects” will cancel. But the oddities of Remington are clear. Trafalgar polls also seem quite dodgy.

    Okay…Here we go. Scroll down or click here for the alternative analysis.

    Analysis with All Polls

    Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 84,508 times and Trump wins 15,492 times (including the 2,449 ties). Clinton received (on average) 282 (-8) to Trump’s 256 (+8) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 84.5% probability of winning and Trump would have a 15.5% probability of winning. Thus, Clinton slips a bit, but the race isn’t changing much.

    The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 07 Nov 2015 to 07 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

    An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

    Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
    [Read more…]

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