Search Results for: 10,000

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 377 electoral votes	Mean of 161 electoral votes

My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump’s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I’ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information).

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump’s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump’s gains primarily came from 4 states:

1. A big boost in Georgia (from a 15% to a 59% probability) from three polls with Biden ahead that aged out, and one new poll with Trump up by +1%
2. A slight decrease in Biden’s chances of winning North Carolina, dropping from 71% down to 69%
3. A slight boost in Trump’s chances from 96% to 99% in South Carolina
4. A big boost in Trump’s chances in Texas from 48% to 63%

Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:

1. Trump slips from 70% to 56% after the only recent Alaska poll was released. The poll was done by a Democratic PAC polling the Alaska Senate race, so you are right to be a bit skeptical or, at least, want more polling.
2. Trump slips slightly in Iowa from a 63% to a 58% probability of winning
3. Trump slips a bit from 99% to a 92% probability of taking Kansas as two old polls age out and one new poll gives Trump a modest lead
4. In Maine’s 2nd congressional district, a Trump+1.8% poll drops out and a new poll boosts Biden from 86% to a 92% chance of taking its electoral vote. Biden now leads in all five current polls in the district.
5. Nebraska’s second congressional district gets a second poll that boosts Biden from a 61% to a 86% probability of taking the district
6. Three new Nevada polls, including an astonishing Biden+11% poll from Fox News, raises Biden’s chances from 75% to 98% of taking the state
7. In Ohio, one Trump+5% poll ages out and three new polls, all with Biden in the lead, are released. Biden goes from a 48% to a 63% probability of winning in Ohio

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats	Mean of 47 seats

I suppose it is about time for some analyses of the 2020 races for the U.S. Senate. As with the presidential state head-to-head polls, I’ve been collecting senate head-to-head polls for senate races. We now know the general election candidates in all races except the Georgia 2 special election and the Louisiana senate race, but we’ll be assuming that the Republican incumbents will eventually win these races.

Although these analyses are for each state in which there is a senatorial election, we will aggregate the results to look at the probability that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans or flip to the Democrats. Of course, the third possibility is a 50-50 tie, in which case the outcome of the presidential election determines which party controls the Senate. Given the strength of former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump, I’ll assume ties go to the Democrat, although occasionally I’ll report both ways. Perhaps later on, I’ll change the reporting to systematically include results each way.

As of this afternoon, I’ve collected 361 head-to-head polls in the senate races. For some state there are many polls, like the 66 polls for the N.C. senate race between Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham. For other states, there are not so many polls—like zero polls in Delaware, Massachusetts, Oregon, Nebraska, among others. Idaho and Illinois have only one poll each, and New Jersey only has two polls. Clearly, some states have few, or no, polls because the race isn’t particularly competitive. States with many polls are either competitive, or are interesting for some other reason—perhaps there is a gubernatorial race or it is an important toss-up state in the presidential race. For North Carolina, both are true. When I have no polling in a race, the incumbent wins the state for each simulated election.

Even with 361 polls, I will always use a subset of the most current polls. Right now, my rule is to use polls taken over the past month, but that window may tighten as Nov. 3 approaches.

Let’s get on with it! After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 97,022 times, there were 2,936 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 42 times. By this analysis, if the election was held today, Democrats would have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate. If we have a Republican Vice President, the probability drops to 97% for Democrats and 3% for Republicans.

There is only one state likely to go from Democrat to Republican, and that is Alabama. Tommy Tuberville (R) has led in all 7 polls ever taken in this race, and he is likely to unseat Sen. Doug Jones.

There are three states likely to flip from Republican to Democrat: Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina. In Arizona, former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has led Sen. Martha McSally (R) in all 15 polls taken in the past month. He has led in almost all of the 66 polls taken in this race going back to early last year.

In Colorado, former Governor John Hickenlooper has led in all eleven polls taken in this race going back to Aug 2019. Many of the polls showed a double digit lead for Hickenlooper.

And then there is North Carolina, where Cunningham (D) has led Tillis (R) in all 21 polls taken in the last month—one of the polls is a near tie with Cunningham up 322 “votes” to 320. We have to go back 43 polls, all the way back to June to find a poll where Tillis leads Cunningham, but only by a single “vote”: 474 to 473. Cunningham leads in a majority of older polls going back to June of 2019.

In the toss-up category, we have a surprising number of states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina. In Alaska, the most recent poll is tied, but the two older polls had Sen Dan Sullivan (R) leading Al Gross (D). The most recent poll in Iowa is also a tie, but going back to June, Sen Joni Ernst (R) has only carried two polls while her challenger Theresa Greenfield (D) has led in 10 polls.

In Kansas there is also a tie in the most recent poll. But Roger Marshall (R) has led Barbara Bollier (D) by 1% margins in the three polls taken since June. Mississippi is a surprise tie. Sen Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is being challenged by Mike Espy (D). The only current poll has Hyde-Smith up by 1%. There were 5 previous polls, all taken before June, where Hyde-Smith had a solid lead. We definitely need more polling in Mississippi!

South Carolina is one of the most interesting of the senate races. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is being challenged by Jamie Harrison. Graham led Harrison through March, but since then, there have been three ties, Graham has had (mostly) small leads in 5 polls, and Harrison has had a small lead in one of the most recent polls.

Finally, the Georgia race between Sen. David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) is close enough to merit mention. Perdue has led in the most recent five polls, but there were two ties, and Ossoff led in one poll before that, all within the last month. Perdue has the momentum for now, and the simulated results give him a 84% probability of keeping his seat.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 380 electoral votes	Mean of 158 electoral votes

Some 40 new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis was posted last Friday. Many of the new polls have been taken partially or fully after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an event that could possibly change the dynamics of the Presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. If so, it has not affected the expected outcome of a (hypothetical) election held now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 380 to Trump’s 158 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Last week’s analysis gave Biden 389 and Trump 149 electoral votes (on average) so, for the moment, Biden has stopped gaining electors, although it is too early to say that Trump has the momentum going forward. With newly released polls, Trump made modest gains in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (13% to 39% probability of winning that district’s elector) and Texas (22% to 48% probability of winning the state). He made smaller gains in Georgia (12% to 15%), North Carolina (23% to 29%) and South Carolina (92% to 96%). At the same time, Trump lost modest ground in Alabama (100% to 77%) and Louisiana (100% to 87%) and lost a bit of ground in Iowa (66% to 63%).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

• 369 electoral votes with a 2.55% probability
• 360 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
• 413 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
• 389 electoral votes with a 2.00% probability
• 407 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
• 375 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
• 397 electoral votes with a 1.68% probability
• 385 electoral votes with a 1.66% probability
• 406 electoral votes with a 1.57% probability
• 395 electoral votes with a 1.54% probability

The long term trend in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 23-Sep-2019 to 23-Sep-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (when possible…see the FAQ).

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 389 electoral votes	Mean of 149 electoral votes

My previous analysis was before the conventions. Now, roughly a month after the conventions, any movement from the conventions should become apparent.

To assess an election held today, we simulate 100,000 elections using the past month of polls as “current” and only using older polls if there are no current polls. From that exercise, Joe Biden won all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 389 to Donald Trump’s 149 electoral votes, a modest improvement for Biden from the 378 to 160 electoral vote lead he had at the end of July. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Sep 2019 to 18 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Clearly, Biden has the lead and the momentum at this point in the election season, with his expected electoral vote total tending to climb since January. Details for the the most recent simulation is found below the fold.

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 378 electoral votes	Mean of 160 electoral votes

My last analysis was about three weeks ago, and former Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump by 375 to 163 electoral votes. After adding about 150 new polls and undertaking 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 378 to Trump’s 160 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

I decided to do an extended set of simulated elections every seven days over the past year, where each simulation includes polls from the preceding month (FAQ). The resulting plot shows that Trump has been losing ground in the electoral college totals since early April.

For the simulated elections for today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ]:
[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 375 electoral votes	Mean of 163 electoral votes

My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.

Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!

The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.

[Read more…]

Robert Reich: Who’s really looting America?

ТрампPlague:

• Courtney Jaye: Babygate
• Bruce W. Nelson: Cows, Fences and The Dotard Трамп
• The Late Show: Ghosts of Confederate soldiers have new military base name ideas for Трамп
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Democracy’s safe word
• Bruce W. Nelson: Put your mask on!
• Trevor: Coronavirus is on the upswing
• Lars von Retriever: MetalTrump–Dig (Mudvayne)
• Bruce W. Nelson: Bunker Room
• Lauren Mayer: Ivanka is the new Karen:

• Courtney Jaye: STFU, Ivanka
• The Late Show: Platitudes generator can’t handle Ivanka Trump’s commencement speech
• Bruce W. Nelson: Babygate!
• Seth Meyers: Трамп defends the Confederacy, complains about polls
• Robert Reich: The deadly FAUX News-Трамп syndicate
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s back out, COVID sex guidelines & NASCAR flag ban
• Courtney Jaye: Fuck this fucking president
• Bruce W. Nelson: Bunker fevor

Courtney Jaye: FAUX News is the devil

The Night the Lights Went Out on Georgia’s Voters:

• Stephen: Voter suppression plagues Georgia’s primary
• Trevor: Georgia’s disastrous primary
• The Late Show: Think you can get past Georgia’s voter suppression boss?

Trevor: Joe Biden on healing the country and acknowledging weaknesses

Black Lives Matter:

• Stephen: Jon Batiste on leading a musical march for justice
• Trevor: Confederate symbols are coming down
• Jonathan Mann: Jackboot
• Samantha Bee: America’s long-standing tradition of police brutality
• Daily Show: FAUX News is suddenly anti-protest
• The Late Show: A special message from Antifa
• Randy Rainbow: The Bunker Boy:

• Seth Meyers: Trump sinks in polls as protesters call to defund the police
• Trevor: Трамп doubles down and Democrats respond to protests
• Stephen: Megan Rapinoe’s parents taught her that you need to help people, period.
• Courtney Jaye: Bunker Boy
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and the police lash out at the Black Lives Matter protests
• Trevor: Joe Biden on reforming the police
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s “Army,” Mitt Romney marches & Americans come together
• Stephen: Emmanuel Acho—Being anti-racist means calling out racism wherever you see it
• Jonathan Mann: The Capitol Hill autonomous zone
• John Oliver: Police
• Sarah Cooper: How to bunker
• Trevor: Cops meet police brutality protests with more police brutality
• Stephen: Trump openly insults Black Americans by scheduling MAGA rally on Juneteenth in Tulsa, OK
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп tweets conspiracy theory & cousin Micki’s words of hope
• The USA Singers: The Ballad of George Floyd:

• Samantha Bee: It’s time to defund the Police
• Trevor: America protests police brutality and systemic racism
• The Late Show: Beware…The elderly Antifa!
• Mark Fiore: Defunding everything but the police
• Stephen: Calls to defund the police intensify while Трамп attacks Buffalo man assaulted by the cops
• Trevor: What should we do about police unions?

Hasan Minhaj: The news industry is being destroyed

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Lauren Mayer: “One Plate at a Time”.

Bill Maher: All bets are off

ТрампPlague:

• The Daily Show: 100,000 accomplished
• Trevor: A Costco face mask showdown
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп wants essential churches open!
• Vox: How coronavirus spreads outdoors vs. indoors
• Jimmy Kimmel: The Dotard wants to SHUT DOWN Twitter
• Michael Kosta meets the Grim Reaper
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Trumps” (with apologies to Joyce Kilmer)
• Barack Obama: “Pissed Away”:

• Daily Show: Трамп’s totally not weird way of standing
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп Tuesdays #5
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп blames Obama in song
• Late Night storytime: Трамп family quarantine
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп golfs & pool parties in the Ozarks
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп fights voting by mail fraud and masks
• Mother Jones: The racist history behind Трамп’s violent tweet
• Full Frontal: The Pandemic Diaries
• Mark Fiore: Human capital stock
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard trashes his supporters in leaked phone call
• Bruce W. Nelson: Ignore the experts, and listen to Трамп’s gut
• Daily Show: Microsoft Excel—Coronavirus Edition
• David Crosby: “What are their names”
• Red State Update: CHLOROQUINE (Parody of John Deere Green):

• Hasan Minhaj: Kamala Harris discusses COVID-19 and the election
• Roy Wood Jr.: Tired of wearing a mask? Leo Deblin has the solution
• Vox: What Bill Gates hopes we learn from coronavirus
• Bruce W. Nelson: Donald Trump vaccine (available to Americans, November 3, 2020)
• J-L Cauvin: Happy Memorial Day from The Dotard
• AJ+: A tale of two pandemics
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s Twitter feud with Twitter
• Trevor: Animals in the time of coronavirus

Now This: Michelle Obama surprises students engaged in voter registration.

Hasan Minhaj: The legal marijuana industry is rigged

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Black Lives Matter:

• Now This: Former V.P. Joe Biden remarks on the killing of George Floyd
• Trevor: George Floyd, Minneapolis protests, Ahmaud Arbery & Amy Cooper
• Now This: CNN reporter and crew arrested live on-air in Minneapolis
• Vice News: Anti-police brutality protests are going national even in a pandemic
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel on George Floyd, riots in Minneapolis & Трамп’s violent stupidity.
• Now This: Minnesota AG Keith Ellison responds to the killing

Robert Reich: Robert Reich’s advice to the Class of 2020.

Vice News: Navajo Nation may finally get a better shot at voting in the presidential election

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Ti’s very dispiriting that Washington state has hit 1000 confirmed coronavirus dead. Social distancing and hand washing have slowed down the spread. But still, here we are. It’s better than if it had happened weeks or a month ago.

Anyway wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 359 electoral votes	Mean of 179 electoral votes

It’s been some years since you’ve seen one of these election analyses here at HA. Given that Biden and Trump will almost certainly be the nominees of their parties, and given that there are more than 300 state head-to-head polls released, it is time to start these up again.

These analyses use state head-to-head polls and mimic the electoral college process as well as following the rules of each state on how electors are awarded in the state. Most states (and D.C.) use the rule “winner takes all,” but Maine and Nebraska allocates two electors to the state victor and the rest go by the vote of each congressional district.

There are a few states that have no polling yet. These are D.C. (not a state, but it gets three electors anyway), Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. Clearly, these are not swing states. I’ve simply averaged the result from the past 4 elections and always award electors from the state that way. The results are exactly what you would expect–Illinois goes to Biden, South Dakota goes to Trump, etc. Interestingly, Nebraska’s 2nd CD just barely went for Obama in 2008, but NE-2 will be assigned to Trump in these analyses until we get polling that allows the state to be rolled into the simulations.

New polls come out almost daily, so I’ll post new analyses when I have time to collect polls, conduct the analyses, and post results.

So, how do these analyses work? I am using a statistical method called Monte Carlo analysis to, essentially, conduct mock elections in each state. The outcome of each state election is a probabilistic outcome that reflects the number of people polled recently in the state and the fraction of polled individuals saying they would vote for each candidate. Currently, I consider the last two months of polling as “current”, but that window will shrink as the pace of polling picks up. I usually do 100,000 mock elections to simulate what would happen if the election was held now. The FAQ has the details, although I need to update the FAQ for this election cycle.

Note that I do not claim these analyses predict the election outcome. Rather they reflect what we would expect for an election held now. It serves as something like the score in a basketball game. The half-time score only tells you who is leading. A lopsided score may give you an inkling of who will win, but it is just the half-time score. Watching a basketball game is far more interesting when you are allowed to know the score. Likewise, knowing the “score” in an election contest is much more interesting. In developing these analyses, I have tried to be scrupulously unbiased. If all the polls were to be flipped, Trump’s results would look like Biden’s, and Biden’s Trump’s.

Okay, so what would the outcome be if the election was held today? After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins every simulated election. Biden received (on average) 359 electoral votes to Trump’s 179 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06-May-2019 to 06-May-2020, and including polls from the preceding two months. When the purple line is above the dashed line, it means Biden is expected to win. The red and green lines provide “confidence intervals”. For example, at each time point, there was a 95% chance that any simulated election fell between the green lines. If the lower green line dips down to touch the dashed line, it means Trump would have a 2.5% chance of winning.

Here is a plot showing the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] that resulted from the 100,000 simulated elections for the analysis done today (essentially, a vertical slice from the previous graph at today’s date):

[There is much more, including state-by-state analyses below the fold….]

[Read more…]

Jim Jefferies: Traditional remedies vs. modern science.

Minute Physics: The man who corrected Einstein.

Vox: The man who rigged America’s election maps.

Kurzgesagt: What if we nuke a city?

Bill Maher: Ambassador Susan Rice on “Tough Love”

The Dotard Трамп and Other Impulsive, Narcissistic Assholes:

• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s impeachment train is picking up steam
• Ari Melber: Congress prioritizes protecting Трамп impeachment witnesses (with Rep. Denny Heck, D-WA-10)
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Nancy Pelosi to The Dotard: “All roads with you lead to Putin”
• The New York Times: Seven days in Syria—How a Трамп decision led to total chaos
• Jimmy Dore: Mitt Romney hilariously waffles on impeachment
• Katy Tur: Trump Syria deal is a “colossal mistake at every possible level”
• SNL: Giuliani & Associates:

• Rachel Maddow: Трамп “doesn’t know what he’s doing or talking about”
• Chris Hayes: This is how bad things have gotten
• Jimmy Kimmel: The Dotard Трамп doesn’t care anymore
• Bruce Nelson: It’s hard to be a dumb ass in the White House
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Трамп’s Republican enablers break with him on Syria
• Bill Maher: New Rule—Prickstarter
• Ari Melber: Trump has meltdown as Giuliani faces criminal probe
• The New Yorker: Nancy Pelosi on her impeachment phone call with Трамп
• Daily Show: Трамп v. Трамп on the Kurds:

• Jimmy Kimmel: The Dotard Трамп has lied 13,000 times as President
• Trevor: Трамп’s Mideast move creates mayhem
• Ari Melber and Rachel Maddow: Tanking Russia economy inspired meddling in Трамп election
• Lawrence O’Donnell: John Brennan on “all roads with Трамп lead to Putin”
• Mark Fiore: The great and unmatched wisdom war!
• Chris Hayes: Rudy Giuliani is basically lobbying on behalf of the Turkish government
• Jimmy Kimmel: The Dotard Трамп letter proves he’s crazy
• Now This: Rudy Giuliani’s hypocrisy exposed in resurfaced 1998 interview
• Ari Melber: Impeachment circular firing squad? See Трамп’s allies turn on aide who admitted Ukraine plot
• Katy Tur: How impeachment fear has made The Dotard Трамп worse
• Randy Rainbow: GIULIANI! (Here He Goes Again):

• Ari Melber: Трамп impeachment inquiry banks evidence as witnesses testify
• The New Yorker: Andy Borowitz on the life-changing magic of impeaching Трамп
• WaPo: Mick Mulvaney’s bombshell briefing on Ukraine, in 2 minutes
• Trevor: Трамп thinks he bought America
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Rudy SHOULD be worried about SDNY investigation
• Chris Hayes: Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA-9) on The Dotard’s meeting meltdown—“Very dismissive and very insulting.”

AJ+: How the U.S. used jazz, art & Orwell to fight the Soviets.

John Oliver: Weather.

Jimmy Dore: Jeb Bush calls George W. Bush “stupid”!

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses.

Remembering Elijah Cummings:

• Reflect: Chuck Schumer reflects on Elijah Cummings’ life and death
• WaPo: “He was a voice for justice”—Colleagues pay tribute to Rep. Cummings
• New York Times: Remembering Elijah Cummings.
• Reflect: Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD-5) announces on the House floor Elijah Cummings’ death
• Now This: Rep. Elijah Cummings, civil rights champion, dead at 68
• WaPo: Remembering Rep. Cummings’s most powerful moments
• Roll Call: Elijah E. Cummings in Congress, 1996-2019.

Vox: How the US stole thousands of Native American children.

Mental Floss: The real origins of 20 scary stories.

Jim Jefferies: Why we’re all so depressed.

Minute Earth: How the modern world tricks our bodies into hurting themselves.

Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Twenty-Twenty Vision:

• Trevor: Nepotism in & around the White House
• New York Times: Key debate moments in 5 minutes
• Bill Maher: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
• The Daily Show: Bill Weld’s 2020 primary challenge against Трамп
• SNL: CNN Equality Town Hall
• The New Yorker: Pete Buttigieg on how to mend America’s deep divisions
• Bad Lip Reading: BIDEN 2020:

• The Daily Show: Leo Deblin’s family fill-in
• Jimmy Kimmel: 12 Democrats angrily agree with each other for hours
• Trevor: The Ohio debate

Full Frontal Rewind: Conspiracies people are talking about.

Robert Reich: Should the Supreme Court be reformed?

Trevor: Susan Rice on “Tough Love,” life in the Obama White House and the Трамп era

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

6:05: Here we go!

6:06: Prepare for an onslaught of lies, lies, lies, lieslies.

6:07: There is a small crowd here at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern for Drinking Liberally.

6:08: Why is Melanie wearing pajamas.

DemocratIC agenda. Don't be petty.

— Christina Reynolds (@creynoldsnc) February 6, 2019

6:10: He has said absolutely nothing so far.

6:11: Wait…”The Great Crusade” wasn’t the liberation of Europe! He is basically feeding his base with anti-Islamic dog whistles.

15

— Trump Sniff Counter (@TrumpSniffCount) February 6, 2019

Not everything is an applause line.

— Carl Ballard (@BallardCrl) February 6, 2019

6:19: The economy is good. That’s because Trump inherited the Obama recovery, and he hasn’t totally fucked it up. Yet.

6:22: What companies have come back to the U.S. as a result of the G.O.P. tax scam?

6:23: The U.S. is a net exporter of energy. But that was achieved under Obama. “Thanks Obama!”

Our economy is so hot Trump is gonna move on her like a bitch

— Jessica Mason Pieklo (@Hegemommy) February 6, 2019

6:29: I hate these fucking anecdotes. For every Alice there is a Joe Arpaio, so fuck off, Drumpf.

6:32: Here comes the bullshit “dangerous southern border” part of the speech.

6:33: “Caravans of refugees are coming!!!!!11!1!!1!” When, exactly, did Republicans become such fucking cowards?

6:37: Human traffickers, MS 13, and caravans, OH MY!

96 Americans die from gun violence every day. Every day. Yet, Trump will never mention that. He's only concerned about victims of crime when he can use their stories to further his agenda

— Joe Sudbay (@JoeSudbay) February 6, 2019

Human trafficking? You mean like what may have happened to the kids this presidential administration lost track of after they took them from their families at the border? #SOTU19

— Ruth H. Hopkins (@RuthHHopkins) February 6, 2019

6:42: Let’s see…Drumpf says 300 girls rescued from 1000 pimps!?! That is a very large pimp to girl ratio!

6:45: Drumpf describes his wonderful “barrier”. Did he get some funding from Mexico yet?

"I will get it built! And Mexi….uh.."

— Sam Seder (@SamSeder) February 6, 2019

6:46: “Walls work and walls save lives”. That should convince the Mexicans.

6:48: “More women serving in Congress than anytime before.” Drumpf does get sine credit for that, but not how he thinks!

6:50: “First ever program focusing on economic empowerment for women in developing countries.” Bullshit. Obama and Clinton had such programs. Hell, Shrub probably did as well.

Trump has one move. Scare white people that brown people are rapists, drug dealers, murderers and sex traffickers.

That is All This Is.

Race baiting plain and simple. #SOTU

— Bryan Behar (@bryanbehar) February 6, 2019

6:52: USMCS is pretty much a slightly modernized NAFTA.

Before the week is out, our Trump-loving, @GOP-voting neighbors & co-workers will "know" with true Republican certainty that Trump & the Republicans are to thank for all the women now serving in Congress.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

— Mordant FreedomVoter (@MordantFV) February 6, 2019

Did Trump claim credit for the electoral backlash against Trump?

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 6, 2019

6:56: Drumpf declares a war on “global freeloading”.

Note to @realDonaldTrump: Patients with pre-existing conditions already have protections written into law. It's called the Affordable Care Act. Stop the attacks on our care. #SOTU #HealthCareVoter #ProtectOurCare

— Laura Packard (@lpackard) February 6, 2019

7:01: Drumpf is all about paid family leave. We’ll see how long that lasts.

7:06: Yay for more nuclear weapons! “Mush Room Cloud! Mush Room Cloud!”

Applause for withdrawing from the INF treaty?! WTF? Who the hell applauds a failure in nuclear arms control agreements?

— Mordant FreedomVoter (@MordantFV) February 6, 2019

Nothing scares seniors on universal basic income and single payer health care like talk of socialism.

— ⚡️LOLGOP⚡️ (@LOLGOP) February 6, 2019

7:16: Drumpf says “radical regime of Iran” as if he is trying to convince people (and himself) it is true.

7:23: The State of Our Union is 75 years ago.

I bet Judah doesn't think there were good people on both sides. #SOTU

— shauna (@goldengateblond) February 6, 2019

7:29: Drumpf gives a stirring speech asking us to chose greatness. Tomorrow he will Tweet something about “Cryin’ Chuck”.

7:40: Ummm…happy lunar new year?

Stacey Abrams looks great, relaxed & strong! She's rocking this #SOTU response!

— BCarniello (@BCarniello) February 6, 2019

Good chance @staceyabrams would be giving this speech as governor of GA not private citizen if it wasn’t for GOP voter suppression

— Ari Berman (@AriBerman) February 6, 2019

How dare he speak of Dachau when he created this. #SOTU pic.twitter.com/CsdZ6o1CAs

— Parker Quinlan (@parkerquinlan) February 6, 2019

Stacey Abrams: "Compassionate treatment at the border is not the same as open borders."

— Michael Del Moro (@MikeDelMoro) February 6, 2019

Over the years, this blog has not been immune to legal controversy. Ignoring the toothless comment thread threats, we occasionally receive take-down demands, cease and desist letters and the like. Indeed, this blog was born out of a lawsuit. It began with Goldy’s Horse’s Ass initiative catalyzing a lawsuit brought against him by Washington’s then state Attorney General, Christine Gregoire. Goldy fought the AG and the AG won:

Siding with the state attorney general, Thurston County Superior Court Judge Gary Tabor ruled yesterday that a proposed statewide initiative declaring Eyman to be a horse’s ass isn’t a proper subject for an initiative. It isn’t legislative in nature, he said, and therefore is “outside the power given to the people.”

An initiative, the judge added, must be “for a purpose other than expressing a sentiment.”

Besides providing the seed for this blog, the only other positive outcome of the whole fiasco was giving the Seattle PI’s Neil Modie the type of multi-layered pun that a lesser journalist would kill for in the headline “A Bum Rap?”

Of course, for Goldy, the start of this blog launched him into a decade of impoverished muckrakery, living off of small donations, double digit blog advertisement revenue, and an occasional ghost-writing gig. Those were hard, if fun, years; Goldy took some scalps along the way.

Times have changed. We all have troubles, it seems. Just today we learned that farm bankrupcies are way up in the midwest.

And legal problems have finally brought down Horsesass. Fines, legal fees, court orders, high voltage! (done dirt cheap).

When I say “Horsesass”, perhaps I should say, the Horse’s Ass. Yes…the anti-government agitator, the perpetual purveyor of defective initiatives, Mr. self-identified lying liar, this blog’s namesake himself, Tim “Biggest-Lie-Of-My-Life” Eyman has filed for bankruptcy:

Attorney General Bob Ferguson has accused Eyman of secretly moving funds between two initiative campaigns in 2012 and receiving $308,000 in kickbacks from the firm that collected signatures for both measures.
….
Ferguson filed a lawsuit in March 2017 seeking $1.8 million in penalties, plus reimbursement of the funds Eyman received from the firm.
….
In documents filed Wednesday, Eyman reported assets of more than $2 million and liabilities of $3.2 million. He owes $77,000 in legal fees and a disputed $3.1 million to the Office of the Attorney General, according to the reports.

It’s an “own goal.” Eyman blatantly violated campaign finance laws, and thwarted court orders. And, apparently, he’s fresh out of sugar daddies.

Eyman claims the legal actions against him have caused his wife to divorce him. Yeah…I’m guessing it’s the lies! (Or maybe the embarrassing costumes?)

No word yet on whether his dog has run away.