Search Results for: 10,000

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 360 electoral votes	Mean of 178 electoral votes

It is election day! I’ve added a couple dozen more polls since The yesterday analysis, but the results have not changed much. Yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump with an average of 362 to 176 electoral votes.

Today, I tightened up the “current poll” window to 10 days. This has the effect of adding uncertainty in under-polled states like Washington and Oregon. But doing this should better capture late trends in hotly contested states.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 360 to Trump’s 178 electoral votes. The election is today and this model predicts Biden will win with near certainty. The most likely outcome (14.6% probability) is 351 electoral votes. Biden’s worst outcome in the simulated elections was 308 electoral votes, suggesting that Biden has almost no chance of an outcome below 308 votes. The highest electoral vote total was 418.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The trajectory of this race over the past year can be seen from a series of elections simulated every week including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

There have been 131 new polls released since the previous analysis just 3 days ago in the race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The sheer volume of polls has let me tighten the “current poll” window to polls in the past two weeks. This has resulted in the race tightening a bit. Three days ago (with a 3-week “current poll” window, Biden averaged 373 electoral votes.

Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Biden wins all 100,000 elections and receives (on average) 362 to Trump’s 176 electoral votes. In other words, Biden would almost certainly win an election held today. We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow….

What are the big shifts over the last three days? In Georgia, there are 13 polls total that are split six with Trump ahead, six with Biden in the lead, and one tie. Biden’s chances have dropped slightly from a 94% probability of winning three days ago to a 77 percent chance of winning the state today. In Iowa, five new polls were released and five aged-out for nine polls total. Biden leads in four and Trump in four with one tie. The net result is that Biden’s slight lead (56% probability of winning) has moved to Trump leading (53% probability of winning today). Basically, Iowa is a toss-up.

We lost one of the two polls in Nebraska’s second congressional district, so Biden’s chances have slipped from a 98% chance to a 70% chance of winning. This is, essentially, a situation of too little polling.

North Carolina is the state everyone is talking about. And there is lots of polling. I have 27 current polls, with six new polls added and a loss of 14 older polls. Biden leads in 18 of the polls and Trump leads in seven polls; there are two ties. These shifts in polls have caused Biden to slip slightly from a 99% chance of winning to an 87% chance of winning. Finally, in Texas we have 11 current polls, with 5 new ones and six old ones dropping out. Trump leads in seven polls and Biden in three, with one tie. The net result is Trump’s chances have gone up again from 59% probability of winning to a 76% probability of winning.

There are some states that went for Trump in 2016 but the analysis gives Biden a solid lead, including Arizona (96% probability of winning), Florida (>99.9% probability of winning), Michigan (>99.9% probability), Pennsylvaina (>99.9% probability) and Wisconsin (>99.9% probability).

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated weekly for the past year, always including polls from the preceding two weeks (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats	Mean of 47 seats

The previous analysis of the Senate races four days ago showed control of the Senate likely to go to the Democrats, with an expected 54 seats. Since then there have been many new polls released. As a result, the race has tightened slightly.

Now, the Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections gives Democrats have a Senate majority 99,773 times and produces 227 ties. Republicans never control the Senate. That is an almost imperceptible “slide” for the Democrats from the previous analysis. But the mean number of seats has dropped by one from 54.2 to 53.2. Part of the reason is that I’ve tightened the “current poll” window from 1 month to 3 weeks, as there is enough polling to justify the narrower window. And doing so increases the chances of catching late trends in the race.

There were a few big changes. In Alaska, where Democrat Al Gross is attempting to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, the newest polls take the race from a tie to Sullivan in the lead with a 78% chance of winning an election today. For Georgia’s seat 1 race where Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is trying to unseat Republican Sen. David Perdue, the last 6 of 14 polls have put Ossoff in the lead. Perdue had a 65% chance of winning four days ago, but now Ossoff has the edge with an 87% chance of winning. In Iowa, where Democrat Theresa Greenfield is challenging Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, Greenfield’s once strong lead has slipped. Four days ago she had a 76 percent probability of winning. Now she has a 61% chance. The open seat in Kansas has Democrat Barbara Bollier head-to-head with Republican Roger Marshall. Boiller had a slight lead that translates to a 63% probability of winning. But the new polling has Marshell ahead with a 91% chance of winning.

The Race in Maine has tightened as well. Democrat Sara Gideon has been leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins. In fact, Gideon still leads in all three current polls, but one poll is nearly a tie. Gideon’s lead has slipped from 97% a few days ago to 87% probability today. In another challenge to an incumbent, Democrat Mike Espy is challenging Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for her Mississippi seat. The polling tightened up recently, and Hyde-Smith had a 56% chance of winning a few days ago. But a new Civiqs poll has Hyde-Smith up by +8%, boosting the Senator’s chances to a 90% probability of winning. Finally, in the South Carolina race, Democrat Jamie Harrison’s challenge of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has seen a shift in Graham’s chances of prevailing from 56% to an 88% chance.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 373 electoral votes	Mean of 165 electoral votes

The previous analysis of the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump was just two days ago. There have been 73 new polls released since then. I usually expect polls to show a tightening race just before the election. Indeed, there are hints of this in the states you expect Trump to win, but show Biden the lead (like AZ, FL, and NC). Texas has tightened so that Trump now has only a very small lead. Iowa has also tightened, cutting into Biden’s lead, leaving a very close race. Regardless, there has been little overall change in the race.

In past analyses, I have been using polls taken in the past month as “current polls.” For today’s analysis, I have tightened up the “current poll” window because there are many polls being released and old polls may be less representative of the electorate. Now, the analyses consider only polls taken over the past three weeks as “current.” As it happens, the overall trends don’t change much by doing this, but Biden gets a “recent polls” bump out of this. The other way to think of it is this: Biden’s lead was being dragged down a bit by polls taken three to four weeks ago.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 373 to Trump’s 165 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 30 Oct 2019 to 30 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

The overall numbers haven’t changed much since my previous analysis last Saturday. The “score” still remains 54 to 46 in favor of the Democrats, if the election had been held today.

This analysis is based on a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections. The results were that Democrats had a Senate majority 99,878 times and there were 122 ties. Republicans controled the Senate 0 times. If the election was today and Biden won, Democrats would control the Senate with a >99.99% probability. If Biden loses, the Democrat’s chances drop to 99.88%

Even if the overall numbers have changes, there are some interesting results from individual states. I’ll compare movement over the past 5 days.

• Alaska—One new PPP poll (for a total of 4) favors Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. His chances bump up from a 52% probability to a 65% probability of defeating Democrat Al Gross
• Georgia seat 1—We have six new polls and lose four old polls for a total of 17 polls. The result is that the race changes from a 60% probability of Republican Sen. David Perdue winning to a 61% probability of Democrat Jon Ossoff winning
• Iowa—The race with Democrat Theresa Greenfield trying to unseat Republican Sen. Joni Ernst sees two new polls and two old polls drop out. The net result, with 12 polls, is that Greenfield goes from a 76% to a 87% probability of winning right now
• Kansas—This is one of the big surprises for 2020 where Democrat Barbara Bollier may well defeat Republican Roger Marshall for this open seat. One poll aged out, leaving three poll that moves Bollier from a 63% to an 81% probability of winning. One caveat…the newest of the three current poll has Marshall in the lead.
• Maine—The race with Democrat Sara Gideon trying to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins has generally favored Gideon. With two new polls and one old poll dropping out, the four current polls all have Gideon in the lead, but her chances drop from 97% to 88%. The primarily reason is a new SurveyUSA poll that has Gideon leading by a mere 0.4%!
• Mississippi—This race has Democrat Mike Espy trying to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Five days ago, the only poll was from last August and had Hyde-Smith up by +1. A new Civiqs poll has her up by +8, upping her chances from 56% to 90%.
• Montana—This contest between Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Sen. Steve Daines is another surprisingly close race. Keep an eye on it. We have two new polls weighing in for a total of eight polls. Four polls have Daines leading, three polls have Bullock leading (by +1), and there is one tie. Daines chances drop from 80% to 71% of winning an election held now.
• South Carolina—This is the race everyone is watching to see if Democrat Jamie Harrison will dethrone Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. Graham was barely hanging on with a 57% probability of winning, but with three new polls added in and two dropping out (for a total of 6 polls), Graham’s chances have risen to 87% probability. Three of the polls favor Graham, two favor favor Harrison and there is one tie.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	45
Strong Democrat	6	51
Leans Democrat	2	2	53
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	53
Weak Republican	3	3	3	47
Leans Republican	2	2	44
Strong Republican	4	42
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		1	1030	43.8	56.2	0.3	99.7
AK		4	2214	49.9	50.1	47.6	52.4
AZ		24	15073	53.6	46.4	100.0	0.0
AR		2	1107	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
CO		8	5741	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
DE		1	712	67.8	32.2	100.0	0.0
GA		15	11127	49.7	50.3	35.1	64.9
GA		5	3619	53.8	46.2	99.9	0.1
ID		1&	487	34.1	65.9	0.0	100.0
IL		1&	418	56.7	43.3	97.3	2.7
IA		12	7943	50.6	49.4	75.5	24.5
KS		4	4774	50.3	49.7	62.7	37.3
KY		2	1157	44.8	55.2	0.8	99.2
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
ME		3	1597	53.4	46.6	97.2	2.8
MA		1&	817	55.6	44.4	98.8	1.2
MI		24	19375	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
MN		4	3038	53.4	46.6	99.6	0.4
MS		1&	486	49.4	50.6	43.7	56.3
MT		6	3893	49.1	50.9	20.1	79.9
NE		1	395	27.3	72.7	0.0	100.0
NH		6	4551	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
NJ		1	664	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
NM		1	815	55.5	44.5	98.4	1.6
NC		23	16814	52.8	47.2	100.0	0.0
OK		1	5102	39.6	60.4	0.0	100.0
OR		1	849	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
RI		0	0			(100)	(0)
SC		5	3960	49.8	50.2	43.2	56.8
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
TN		1	551	39.0	61.0	0.0	100.0
TX		9	10209	47.2	52.8	0.0	100.0
VA		3	2626	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WV		1	386	38.3	61.7	0.1	99.9
WY		0	0			(0)	(100)

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

The previous analysis, last Saturday, saw former VP Joe Biden winning all 100,000 simulated elections earning, on average, 364 electoral votes and a mean of 174 for President Donald Trump. Today, some 75 polls later, Biden still maintains the lead, wins them all, but now with 362 to 176 votes, on average.

The little movements we have seen from last Saturday include several states with very few polls (Indiana, Mississippi and Nebraska’s 2nd CD). More substantively, one new poll in Iowa and with three old polls dropping out, changed Biden’s chances from 68% to 83% probability of winning an election held today. (Iowa…go figure!) A new poll added to Maine 2nd CD’s other two polls flips the district from Trump with a 60% probability of winning to Biden with a 60% probability of winning. Finally, three new Texas polls and the loss of two old polls boost Trump’s chances from 78% last Saturday to 85% today.

This race is a bit of a snoozer compared to 2016, when Hillary Clinton’s lead dropped precipitously during the last 10 days of the election:

Here is what it looks like for Biden with less than a week to go to the election (FAQ):

Clearly, if the election was held today, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The single most likely outcome from the simulations had Biden winning 357 electoral votes (with a 22% probability). Here is the full distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

My previous analysis of the Senate races was a few weeks ago. If the election had been held in early October, the Senate would have almost certainly gone to the Democrats with, on average, 54 seats.

How have things changed? Not much. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,878 times, there were 122 ties, and Republicans never took control of the Senate. Democrats have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate if Vice President Joe Biden takes the White House. Republicans have about a 0.1% probability of controlling the Senate if President Donald Trump is reelected.

Some states have shown minor movement as more polling comes in. Going from 2 to 4 polls in Kansas has flipped the state from red to blue. Republican Roger Marshall was ahead with 82% chance of winning three weeks ago. Now, Democrat Barbara Bollier would have a 63% probability of winning that election today.

In the Montana race where Democrat Steve Bullock is challenging Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the race has swung further into Daines favor. He went from a 57% chance of Daines prevailing three weeks ago to an 80% chance now.

The Georgia seat 2 special election now has 5 polls that, in addition to polling the main event on Nov 3, put the top Democrat, Raphael Warnock, head to head against the top Republicans. I am using polls that assume Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will go up against Warnock in the 2-candidate runoff. But the results don’t change if Republican Doug Collins ends up in the runoff election. In both cases Warnock has a high probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 54.2 ( 1.3)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 45.8 ( 1.3)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 54 (52, 57)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 46 (43, 48)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 34
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 11
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 16
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: seven

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	45
Strong Democrat	6	51
Leans Democrat	2	2	53
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	53
Weak Republican	3	3	3	47
Leans Republican	2	2	44
Strong Republican	4	42
Safe Republican	38

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	Percent	Percent	Democrat	Republican
State	@	polls	size	Democrat	Republican	% wins	% wins
AL		1	1030	43.8	56.2	0.3	99.7
AK		4	2214	49.9	50.1	47.6	52.4
AZ		24	15073	53.6	46.4	100.0	0.0
AR		2	1107	38.0	62.0	0.0	100.0
CO		8	5741	54.8	45.2	100.0	0.0
DE		1	712	67.8	32.2	100.0	0.0
GA		15	11127	49.7	50.3	35.1	64.9
GA		5	3619	53.8	46.2	99.9	0.1
ID		1&	487	34.1	65.9	0.0	100.0
IL		1&	418	56.7	43.3	97.3	2.7
IA		12	7943	50.6	49.4	75.5	24.5
KS		4	4774	50.3	49.7	62.7	37.3
KY		2	1157	44.8	55.2	0.8	99.2
LA		0	0			(0)	(100)
ME		3	1597	53.4	46.6	97.2	2.8
MA		1&	817	55.6	44.4	98.8	1.2
MI		24	19375	52.7	47.3	100.0	0.0
MN		4	3038	53.4	46.6	99.6	0.4
MS		1&	486	49.4	50.6	43.7	56.3
MT		6	3893	49.1	50.9	20.1	79.9
NE		1	395	27.3	72.7	0.0	100.0
NH		6	4551	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
NJ		1	664	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
NM		1	815	55.5	44.5	98.4	1.6
NC		23	16814	52.8	47.2	100.0	0.0
OK		1	5102	39.6	60.4	0.0	100.0
OR		1	849	61.1	38.9	100.0	0.0
RI		0	0			(100)	(0)
SC		5	3960	49.8	50.2	43.2	56.8
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
TN		1	551	39.0	61.0	0.0	100.0
TX		9	10209	47.2	52.8	0.0	100.0
VA		3	2626	57.7	42.3	100.0	0.0
WV		1	386	38.3	61.7	0.1	99.9
WY		0	0			(0)	(100)

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 364 electoral votes	Mean of 174 electoral votes

I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:

Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 361 electoral votes	Mean of 177 electoral votes

With just over two weeks to elect-a-slate-of-electors day, the race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is really heating up! If by the phrase “really heating up”, you mean the days are getting shorter, the weather is getting colder, and the polls continue to put Biden ahead of Trump with no signs of wavering.

My previous analysis showed Biden leading with a mean electoral vote count of 363 to Trump’s 175, suggesting that Biden would win an election then with near certainty.

Since that analysis there have been about 135 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on the contest. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 361 to Trump’s 177 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement from the new polls. Trump has made small gains in a number of states since the previous analysis. In Alaska, the new polling lifts him from a 74% probability of winning an election held then to a 93% probability of winning an election held now. Arkansas moves from a 65% probability to 100% probability. In Louisiana, Trump moves from 87% to 100% probability of winning. Trump gains a bit in Missouri, going from 95% to 99%. In Ohio Trump surges from 56% to 82% probability. Trump has lost ground in Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, where he moves from 63% to 59% probability of winning. Texas has decided to swing back toward Biden a bit as Trump moves from a 95% to an 89% chance of winning the state.

Biden also showed some gains and losses. Biden gains a bit in Georgia, moving from a 68% to an 82% probability of taking the state. And in Virginia, Biden goes from an 85% to a 100% chance of taking the state. Biden slips a bit in Iowa, going from a 67% to a 64% chance of winning the state. Finally Maine’s 2nd congressional district has “flipped”, going from a Biden lead with an 81% probability of him winning to an 58% probability of Trump winning. Maine’s first congressional district and the state itself remain in the Biden column.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 21 Oct 2019 to 21 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Biden’s lead has held solidly since about July.

Getting back to the current week, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations of elections held today:

[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Amber Ruffin explains 2020 to a time traveler from 1793

Trevor: Columbus Day

Really American: Two-faced Lindsey.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Songify the News (with Blondie): One heartbeat away – Kamala vs. Pence
• Americans for Decency: Kamala the MAGA slayer (& friends)
• The Daily Show: Mail-in voting dos and don’ts
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп refuses to do a virtual debate with Joe Biden!!!
• Our Cartoon President: COVID-positive Cartoon Трамп watches the VP debate
• Roy Zimmerman and Laura Love: My vote, my voice, my right:

• Seth Meyers: Hey! Kamala Harris and Mike Pence’s 2020 VP debate
• Robert Riech: Four key takeaways from the Harris-Pence VP debate
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jaime Harrison on Lindsey Graham’s hypocrisy & helping the community
• Meidas Touch: Трамп devastation
• Stephen: Washington, confused about voting in the 2020 election? “Better know a ballot” is here to help!
• SNL: Presidential debate
• The Late Show: Taylor Swift backs Joe Biden in her new single
• Jimmy Fallon: Mike Pence prepares for his debate against Sen. Kamala Harris
• The Daily Show: Scowls, smirks, eye rolls
• Randy Rainbow with Patti LuPone: If the Dotard got fired:

• John Oliver: Election 2020
• Trevor: Трамп refuses a virtual debate
• Now This: Fact-checking the 2020 Vice Presidential debate
• Seth Meyers: Трамп has election meltdown as White House covers up COVID-19 outbreak
• Larry Wilmore: What the fuck, undecided voters?
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel breaks down Pence Harris VP Debate
• Jonathan Mann: Mr. Vice President, I’m speaking
• Really American: Man of the moment
• Roy Wood, Jr: Are harsher vote-by-mail laws really just voter suppression?
• The Foundation Singers: The fly song:

• Lauren Mayer: Has Mike Pence ever let a woman finish?
• Trevor: Pence’s fly and Harris’s expressions steal the debate
• Meidas Touch: I’m speaking
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence discusses his new friend, debate fly
• Seth Meyers: Late night’s October surprise predictions

Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a message for Justices Alito and Thomas as they attack marriage equality.

Bruce W. Nelson: Moscow Mitch revisited

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Grifters, Scofflaws and Tax Cheats:

• Stephen: Like flies on what?
• Americans for Decency: Donald and miracles
• Robert Reich: How you can stop America’s slide toward tyranny
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп attacks the Nobel Peace Prize
• Amber Ruffin: I’ve got $20 more tThan the President:

• Americans for Decency: Donald and smoke—Coronavirus, wildfires, and protests
• The Daily Show: Won’t you help an American President in need?
• Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg on Pence’s debate performance, “He’s pretty comfortable telling a total lie”
• Bruce W. Nelson: No one tells me what to do
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s holy grail just disappeared
• Robert Reich: Empathy for the world’s least empathetic person?
• The Daily Show: Melania Трамп Hates Christmas
• The Parody Project: End of the world:

• Meidas Touch: Трамп is not America
• Sarah Cooper: How to drugs
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп furious over plot to kidnap Michigan governor!!
• Americans for Decency: Abuzz with GOP hypocrisy—Flying under the radar with Mike Pence
• Stephen: John Brennan—Трамп’s failure to denounce White supremacist groups has fueled their rise
• Keith Olbermann: Трамп’s plan to nullify the election

Vox: How US schools punish Black kids

Amber Ruffin: The week in review

Trevor: Facebook bans QAnon & Instagram hides negative comments

Typhoid Трамп and Other Super Spreaders like Melanie:

• Stephen: Трамп expected to resume hosting indoor mask-free campaign rallies
• Trevor: The Dotard has coronavirus & the White House does damage control
• Bruce W. Nelson: A get well song for The Dotard
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп updates the nation from Walter Reed on his car ride
• Jonathan Mann: Getting COVID to own the libs!
• Americans for Decency: Donald and Delirium—Walter Reed melodrama
• Mark Fiore: Get well soon, Mr. President
• Foundation Singers: I’m so sorry (Трамп apologizes!)
• Meidas Touch: Трамп Virus
• Now This: GOP lawmakers are possibly spreading COVID-19
• Seth Meyers: Трамп leaves hospital, says “Don’t be afraid of COVID”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп announces a cure for COVID
• Jimmy Kimmel: Superspreader Трамп is ready to rally again!
• Stephen’s Zoom interview with Трамп
• The Late Show: Secret Service agent irate over Трамп’s joyride
• James Corden: Maybe I’m Immune’:

• Stephen: Трамп sends stocks tumbling with hostage-style threat to block covid stimulus package negotiations
• Seth Meyers with a corona-monologue
• Jimmy Kimmel: Dotard’s Трампumphant return to COVID infested White House
• The Late Show: Is Трамп tripping on Dexamethasone?
• Trevor: Трамп is home and back to comparing COVID to the flu
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsPatientZero
• Stephen: John Brennan—A reckless President taking covid drugs is a dangerous cocktail for the White House
• The Late Show: Achoober—The ride sharing service for contagious covid patients
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп on no COVID relief bill
• Seth Meyers: Трамп stages maskless photo op while still infected with COVID-19
• John Di Domenico: Трамп 4am post hospital press conference on steroids
• Jordan Klepper: Трамп’s COVID rally
• Americans for Decency: Donald and losing—Let us remember
• Keith Olbermann: Worst Person No. 1. The Dotard Трамп—Mass murderer who will kill 150,000 more of us this year
• Bruce W. Nelson: A song of Hope (Hicks)
• Stephen: Трамп says “Don’t let it dominate your life,” returns to the White House still infected with covid
• act.tv: Трамп has a loaded COVID gun
• SNL: Weekend Update
• Trevor: Coronavirus spreads rapidly through the White House
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s inner covid monologue as he returns to the White House
• Jonathan Mann: Is Tucker Carlson ok?
• Seth Meyers: Bob Woodward says Трамп was confident he would not catch COVID-19
• The Late Show: Трамп’s new roommate, covid-19!
• Francesca Fiorentini: How COVID is weaponized to kill public schools

Larry Wilmore with Bomani Jones: Why are police exempt from the consequences of killing people?

Trevor: Alex Wagner on why Americans feel anxiety and heartbreak.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 366 electoral votes	Mean of 172 electoral votes

For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine’s congressional districts and Nebraska’s second congressional district.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump’s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden’s small bump is pretty meaningless—such shifts are normal variation as old polls “age out” after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses.

Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden’s lead in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state.

Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump’s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today.

Biden also gains ground in Nebraska’s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today.

North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden’s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina:

Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:

Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections:
[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 54 seats	Mean of 46 seats

My previous analysis, just over a week ago, showed control of the Senate going to Democrats with, on average, 53 seats going to the Democrats and 47 seats going to the Republicans. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats won 97,022 of them, Republicans only won 42 times and there were 2,936 ties. Since then, about 38 new polls have been released.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,919 times, Republicans control the Senate 21 times, and there were 60 ties. In other words, the results for Democrats have improved a bit, with the average number of seats going up by one to 54. Democrats would almost certainly take control of the Senate if the race was held today.

This week, we got the first polls in several races, including Tennessee, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the Georgia-2 special election. In fact, that poll is largely responsible for the one-seat bump from last week. Georgia’s special election has no primary. Instead numerous candidates will be on the ballot on November 3rd, and a runoff election will be held in the almost certain event that no one candidate takes 50% of the vote. The Civiqs poll conducted heat-to-head contests between different combinations of candidates. At this point it looks like the runoff is between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who holds the seat by appointment. The poll puts Warnock up over Loeffler 49% to 39%. Of course, this is only one poll, and an unconventional one at that, but it has totally changed my perception of this race, which I assumed would go to the incumbent Republican.

Democrats make progress in several other races, as well, including the GA-1 Senate race (from 16% probability last week to 33% probability of winning the state in an election held today), Iowa (45% to 70%) and Montana (30% to 43%). Republicans gained in Kansas (from 50% to 82%). I should note that only a few of the twenty North Carolina polls were taken (or partially taken) after Democrat Cal Cunningham’s “sexting” scandal broke. We’ll need more polls to see how that race develops.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Democratic Governors	Republican Governors
Mean of 23 seats	Mean of 27 seats

There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.

After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.

Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:

[Read more…]