– Have I mentioned that I am excited to read this book? I picked up a copy and am excited to dig in.
– Seattle should have more density for its own sake, but also, yeah, the state is probably not going to fund as many things if we fuck around.
– Good news for Pioneer Square. A quick response to overdoses will hopefully get people helping.
– Anyway please wash your hands right now and get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ I’ll Be Quiet (Once I’m Dead) ♬
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Electile Dysfunction — 2024:
Jordan Klepper calls for gun control after KC parade shooting
Big Tentacle: ♫ Evolution Made Us All ♬
Sycophants, Suckers, and Seditionists:
Mark Fiore: Cats are cute!
Grace Kuhlenschmidt: Recounts the hottest president love affairs
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Electoral Dysfunction, 2024:
The New York Times: Unions aren’t the only way workers can fight exploitation
Трамп and Other Losers:
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Trevor Noah: Overdraft fees are more evil than you think
WaPo: How U.S. courts have become increasingly political
Parody Project: ♫ CORRUPTION ♬:
Chris Hayes: Ohio Issue 1 fails in key victory for abortion rights
NowThis: Why are libraries being considered “dangerous”?
Alex Wagner: New report details extent of billionaires’ luxury gifts to Clarence Thomas
Трамп’s Fraud Club:
Stephanie Ruhle: Justice Thomas accepted 38 vacations from billionaires
J-L Cauvin: The Mitch McConnell Cooking Show (Ep 1)
WaPo: Hip-hop and politics’ complicated 50-year relationship
NowThis: Pres. Biden on Maui wildfires, “We’re working as quickly as possible”
Liberal Redneck: Ohio and the future of democracy
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
SNL Weekend Update: Some political news of the week
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Rachel Maddow: OK local paper records county officials in violent and racist discussion
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Those KKKrazy Folks Flirting with Fascism:
Symone D. Sanders-Townsend: Governor Inslee on why he’s stockpiling the abortion pill that could be in jeopardy
Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Shoot first, ask questions later ♬
Jordan Klepper: Andrew Tate & re-examining masculinity
John Oliver: Farming
Stephen: Some political news of the week
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
– Full service Amtrak to Canada’s Vancouver. Very nice.
– I liked this article about implementing the Organics Management Law. A lot of getting into the weeds on everything from building facilities to all those stickers on your fruit.
– I am excited to see how unlimited vacation works out for Microsoft (First item under “Last Week in Corporations”). Hopefully it goes well for productivity and for employees. (I wrote, but didn’t publish this before the news of the layoffs. So addendum: Oof).
– Good information on possible Ballard Station options.
– Man, fuck Jim Jordan.
– Please wash your hands right now and get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Well…a lot can happen in a month. I’ve been rather negligent in gathering polling data and doing these analyses, so here we are on Election Day Eve. I’ll post an analysis based on polls collected through about 5pm today. If there are more polls tomorrow morning, there will be a final analysis tomorrow early afternoon or so.
My last analysis, about a month ago, found Democrats “in the lead” with a 97% probability of taking the Senate (if the election had been held then, that is). Lots and lots of new polls have been published. And it seems that pollsters have been procreating new baby pollsters between election seasons.
Taken altogether, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority only 1,086 times, (and there were 12,193 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 86,721 times.
What this suggests is that Democrats have a 13.3% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 86.7% probability of controlling the Senate, based only on the last two weeks of polling data (when available…older polls are used if necessary). That is quite the shift over a month.
There is a bit of good news for Democrats. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has a solid lead over his opponent, Blake Masters. Likewise, Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington seem safe for the Democratic incumbents.
Things are not so good for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen Raphael Warnock (D) is, essentially, tied with Herschel Walker. Bizarre, huh? In Nevada, Sen Cortez Masto’s (D) race has turned around and Adam Laxalt (R) might well be looking for a flat in D.C. soon.
Likely Democratic pick-ups have all but vanished. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) once led Republican J.D. Vance for the Ohio Senate race. But Vance has led in 7 of the 8 polls taken in the past 14 days. In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman (D) and Mehmet Oz (R) has tightened, and Oz now holds a very slight lead. Wisconsin? Fuggitaboudit. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) is headed back to D.C. Florida? Not even close. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) will have the privilege of six more years of the job he hates.
Are the polls underestimating chances for Democrats? Maybe. The buzz in the poll aggregation community is that right-leaning pollsters have “flooded the zone” with polls bearing right-skewed results over the past several weeks. Why would they even do that? Wouldn’t that just make them look bad after the election? Either way, tomorrow is going to be “interesting.”
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 44 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 2 | 46 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 2 | 2 | 48 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Weak Republican | 1 | 1 | 1 | 52 |
| Leans Republican | 1 | 1 | 51 | |
| Strong Republican | 9 | 50 | ||
| Safe Republican | 41 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 16 | 11772 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 94.5 | 5.5 | |
| AR | 1& | 451 | 32.2 | 67.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 4 | 3028 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 1 | 773 | 66.2 | 33.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 7 | 4408 | 46.2 | 53.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| GA | 15 | 12247 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 46.3 | 53.7 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 441 | 59.2 | 40.8 | 99.5 | 0.5 | |
| IN | 1 | 615 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 1.4 | 98.6 | |
| IA | 1 | 753 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| KS | 1 | 868 | 37.6 | 62.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1& | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 5 | 4295 | 44.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 9 | 6281 | 48.2 | 51.8 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |
| NH | 9 | 10733 | 50.7 | 49.3 | 84.4 | 15.6 | |
| NY | 5 | 4024 | 60.1 | 39.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 7 | 6807 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 8 | 7425 | 46.9 | 53.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 3 | 2024 | 41.6 | 58.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 3 | 1984 | 38.8 | 61.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 2 | 2171 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 14 | 11479 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 37.0 | 63.0 | |
| SC | 1& | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| SD | 1& | 1275 | 31.8 | 68.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| UT | 2 | 1242 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| VT | 1& | 987 | 66.4 | 33.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WA | 3 | 2183 | 51.1 | 48.9 | 76.1 | 23.9 | |
| WI | 8 | 6410 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 3.8 | 96.2 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.
The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.
With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.
Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 47 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 3 | 50 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 0 | 0 | 50 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Weak Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Leans Republican | 5 | 5 | 50 | |
| Strong Republican | 10 | 45 | ||
| Safe Republican | 35 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 9 | 6018 | 54.3 | 45.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 1 | 618 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 3 | 2667 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 2 | 2435 | 58.4 | 41.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 6 | 3396 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 2.0 | 98.0 | |
| GA | 8 | 7128 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 92.9 | 7.1 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 805 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| IN | 1 | 456 | 48.7 | 51.3 | 35.1 | 64.9 | |
| IA | 1& | 514 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 6.9 | 93.1 | |
| KS | 1 | 784 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.3 | 99.7 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1 | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 2 | 1560 | 43.3 | 56.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 5 | 3721 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 15.6 | 84.4 | |
| NH | 7 | 5381 | 54.1 | 45.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NY | 2 | 1454 | 62.6 | 37.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 5 | 3603 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 24.3 | 75.7 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 5 | 3698 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 26.9 | 73.1 | |
| OK | 2 | 814 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.4 | 99.6 | |
| OK | 1 | 430 | 39.5 | 60.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| OR | 2 | 1507 | 61.4 | 38.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 9 | 6780 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| SC | 1& | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| UT | 3 | 1198 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 4.7 | 95.3 | |
| VT | 1 | 996 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 94.5 | 5.5 | |
| WA | 5 | 3361 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WI | 8 | 5709 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 18.4 | 81.6 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
Election analyses are back! Today’s topic: Who will control the U.S. Senate after the mid-term elections?
We can answer this question by aggregating polling data that has been publicly released over the past year or so. The FAQ covers the methods but, in short, I am using polling data along with Monte Carlo simulation methods to assess probabilistic winners for each state and an overall probability of who will control the Senate.
Using voter preferences found in the past month of polls (whenever possible), 100,000 elections were simulated in each state. The result: Democrats had a Senate majority 82,684 times and there were 15,449 50-50 ties (these go to the Democrats, as VP Kamala Harris breaks Senate ties). Republicans controlled the Senate only 1867 times.
The results: If the election was held now, Democrats would have a 98.1% probability of controlling the Senate.
I’ll highlight just a few races.
Nevada is looking more and more like a Republican pick-up. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent, has been losing to Republican Adam Laxalt in the last 4 polls. These suggest she would only have a 17.3% probability of winning right now. This is a recent trend, as Cortez Masto has lead in most of the earlier polling this year.
Ohio: In this Republican-held open seat, Democrat Tim Ryan is running against Republican J.D. Vance. Ryan has the polling advantage, but Vance has lead in the last three of six polls taken this month. Control of the Senate may turn on whether Ryan gets his mojo back.
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvanians know a carpetbagger when they see one, and they look determined to send Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) back to New Jersey. By leading in every poll this year, John Fetterman (D) has amassed a convincing lead in the race.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) just might lose his seat to Mandela Barnes (D). Barnes has lead in most polls this year. The race, based only on the last month of polling, is a tie. This race may be the one that control of the Senate hinges on.
Back to the topic of control of the Senate, here is the distribution of seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats.* There is about a 40% chance of Democrats having at least 52 seats, the magic number that gives some immunity to Sinema—Manchin Dyspepsia.
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 43 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 6 | 49 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 1 | 1 | 50 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Ties | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Weak Republican | 1 | 1 | 1 | 49 |
| Leans Republican | 2 | 2 | 48 | |
| Strong Republican | 8 | 46 | ||
| Safe Republican | 38 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Dem | Rep | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Dem | Rep | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AZ | 8 | 5210 | 54.2 | 45.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 1 | 618 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CA | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| CO | 2 | 1448 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 1 | 1853 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 7 | 3775 | 47.7 | 52.3 | 2.5 | 97.5 | |
| GA | 10 | 8481 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 91.1 | 8.9 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 1 | 476 | 62.4 | 37.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| IN | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IA | 1& | 514 | 45.3 | 54.7 | 7.0 | 93.0 | |
| KS | 2 | 1133 | 41.3 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KY | 1& | 588 | 41.5 | 58.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| MD | 1 | 666 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 2 | 1473 | 43.7 | 56.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NV | 4 | 3069 | 48.8 | 51.2 | 17.3 | 82.7 | |
| NH | 3 | 2025 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NY | 1 | 858 | 64.1 | 35.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 5 | 3899 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 19.8 | 80.2 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 6 | 4276 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 60.8 | 39.2 | |
| OK | 2 | 818 | 37.4 | 62.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 1 | 459 | 32.9 | 67.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| PA | 7 | 5181 | 54.7 | 45.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| SC | 1 | 546 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| UT | 3 | 1198 | 46.6 | 53.4 | 4.6 | 95.4 | |
| VT | 1 | 996 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 94.4 | 5.6 | |
| WA | 3 | 1929 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 98.8 | 1.2 | |
| WI | 5 | 3815 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 51.6 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
Note: This IS NOT an open thread. The comment section for this post is for discussion of things like polls, elections, control of the Senate, etc. Any poo-flinging is welcome at a nearby Open Thread. Thank you!
Good morning to everyone except the right wing jackals who are trying to repeal the capital gains tax. Seriously, pay your fair share. I can’t imagine having $100,000 to spend on an initiative, and not thinking that you have too much money. Just, like, morally.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now. And get vaccinated or boosted if you’re eligible.
Trevor: The police quota system
LegalEagle: Pirate law
Mark Fiore: Welcome to Facebooks Metaverse
Lauren Mayer: ♫ Poor billionaires ♬
The Cadaverous Creeps, Churlish Crooks, Confused Clowns, Corrosive Cowards, and Contumacious Cronies of the Трамп Cabal:
Trevor: Ta-Nehisi Coates on America’s flawed criminal justice system
Seth Meyers: Biden says his presidency is at stake as Democrats scramble for a deal
Jon Stewart: The hypocrisy of bailouts
This Week In ТрампPlague:
The Problem with Jon Stewart: LeVar Burton’s master class on disparity
Chris Hayes: How the second amendment is threatening the first
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
John Oliver: Opioids III—The Sacklers
Cracked: If megachurches were honest (Honest Ads)
Now This: How new census data impacts the future of U.S. politics
WaPo: How climate change could shift where tornadoes strike most
Traitors, Traffickers, and Terrorists of the Трамп-era G.O.P.:
Amber Ruffin: Black parents’ tax dollars pay for White kids’ “segregation academies”
The Late Show: Captain Planet has… given up
LegalEagle: When pets are legally people
Robert Reich: The media bias nobody is talking about
Lauren Mayer: ♫ Just ‘Cause You’ve Got a Dick Doesn’t Mean You’ve Got to Act Like One ♬
The Week in ТрампPlague:
WaPo: Late-night hosts react to Cuomo’s resignation
Vox: The law that broke US immigration
Dulce Sloan: What happened to America’s public pools?
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Meidas Touch with Heather Gardner: State TV is in trouble
LegalEagle: What’s the deal with “packing the court”
Roll Call: Three defense takeaways from the massive spending bill
President-elect Joe Biden and VP-elect Kamala Harris:
MoveOn: These activists made history in 2020
LegalEagle: Did John Roberts scream at the other Justices?
The Dotard Трамп and His Co-seditioners:
Drunk History: Best of Teddy Roosevelt
Now This: Texas ranch owners organize “Say their names” memorial
Desi Lydic: Arizona daylight savings time opt-out
Holiday Politics:
LegalEagle: Massive changes to copyright?
Bruce W. Nelson: ♫ Man up and go away (MAGA song) ♬
Roll Call: Three tech takeaways from the massive spending bill
The Week in ТрампPlague:
Blaire Erskine: $600 is more than enough!!!!!
Mark Fiore: The year in bad
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Robert Reich: Georgia runoffs—How you can help flip the Senate
Vox: The 126-year fight to change Mississippi’s Confederate flag
President Elect Joe Biden and VP Elect Kamala Harris:
Stephen: Better know a runoff—Georgia!
Jimmy Kimmel does Barack Obama
The Dotard Трамп and Other Sore Losers, Bad Liars, and SAD Fascists:
Wired: Is the YouTube algorithm controlling us? I try to find out
Bruce W. Nelson: Welcome back America!
John Oliver tells 2020 to “get fucked!”
The Week in ТрампPlague:
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week
Robert Reich: The real story behind skyrocketing student debt
Jonathan Mann: Socialism or barbarism
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Since yesterday’s analysis, about 20 new polls have come out. The results have not changed much. This is my final analysis of the for the Senate races.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99804 times, there were 196 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 0 times. This analysis suggests that Democrats will almost certainly control the Senate in 2021.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
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