| Obama | Romney |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 347 electoral votes | Mean of 191 electoral votes |
It’s settled then, Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee who will carry the torch for Republicans into the general election. So let’s see how he’s doing against President Barack Obama.
Here are the new polls that have been released since my previous analysis two weeks ago:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CA | SurveyUSA | 29-Mar | 02-Apr | 1995 | 2.2 | 61.6 | 30.6 | O+31.0 |
| CO | PPP | 05-Apr | 07-Apr | 542 | 4.2 | 53 | 40 | O+13 |
| IN | Bellwether Research | 26-Mar | 28-Mar | 503 | 5.0 | 40 | 49 | R+9 |
| ME | Maine PRC | 31-Mar | 02-Apr | 993 | 3.1 | 54.6 | 37.0 | O+17.6 |
| ME1 | Maine PRC | 31-Mar | 02-Apr | 522 | 4.3 | 60.5 | 33.0 | O+27.5 |
| ME2 | Maine PRC | 31-Mar | 02-Apr | 471 | 4.5 | 48.0 | 41.4 | O+6.6 |
| MA | Rasmussen | 09-Apr | 09-Apr | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 40 | O+11 |
| MA | Boston Globe | 21-Mar | 27-Mar | 544 | 4.2 | 49 | 33 | O+16 |
| MI | EPIC/MRA | 31-Mar | 03-Apr | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 40 | O+8 |
| MT | Rasmussen | 02-Apr | 02-Apr | 500 | 4.5 | 40 | 49 | R+9 |
| NV | PPP | 29-Mar | 01-Apr | 553 | 4.2 | 51 | 43 | O+8 |
| NH | U NH | 21-Mar | 27-Mar | 544 | 4.2 | 49 | 33 | O+16 |
| NJ | Quinnipiac | 03-Apr | 09-Apr | 1607 | 2.4 | 49 | 40 | O+9 |
| NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 21-Mar | 27-Mar | 601 | 4.3 | 58 | 31 | O+27 |
| NM | Rasmussen | 03-Apr | 03-Apr | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 36 | O+16 |
| NY | Siena | 01-Apr | 04-Apr | 808 | 3.4 | 60 | 35 | O+25 |
| NY | Quinnipiac | 28-Mar | 02-Apr | 1597 | 3.0 | 56 | 33 | O+23 |
| NC | Rasmussen | 10-Apr | 10-Apr | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 46 | R+2 |
| NC | PPP | 04-Apr | 07-Apr | 975 | 3.1 | 49 | 44 | O+5 |
| PA | Muhlenberg | 23-Mar | 01-Apr | 492 | 5.0 | 45 | 40 | O+5 |
| VA | Roanoke College | 25-Mar | 05-Apr | 591 | 4.0 | 40.1 | 45.9 | R+5.8 |
Many of these polls are entirely unsurprising: California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Maine isn’t a surprise either. But, for the first time this election season, we have Maine Congressional District data that show Obama on track to win all of the state’s electoral votes.
Obama still leads in Pennsylvania, as he has for the previous six polls going back to early February. The Southwest swing states are sticking with Obama, with good leads for him in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. These are states that Bush won in 2004 and Obama won in 2008. Michigan shows no love for a native son—Obama keeps the lead.
In North Carolina we have a PPP poll that gives Obama a +5 lead and a Rasmussen poll that gives Obama a -2 loss. Romney dominates in Montana; and, he leads in Indiana and Virginia, states that went for Obama in 2008. This is our first poll from Indiana, by the way.
The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney by and average of 347 to 191 electoral votes and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.
Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama still wins all 100,000. Obama’s average electoral vote total is still 347 to Romney’s 191.
The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).


Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

