| Obama | Romney |
| 100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
| Mean of 336 electoral votes | Mean of 202 electoral votes |
The previous analysis of state head-to-head polls gave President Barack Obama the lead over Romney by an average of 327 to 211 electoral votes and a 99.6% probability of winning a hypothetical late-July election.
We have lots of new polls weighing in on the situation:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| AL | Research Consultants | 23-Jul | 26-Jul | 600 | 4.0 | 34 | 59 | R+25 |
| AZ | PPP | 23-Jul | 25-Jul | 833 | — | 41 | 52 | R+11 |
| CO | Rasmussen | 06-Aug | 06-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | tie |
| CO | PPP | 02-Aug | 05-Aug | 779 | 3.5 | 49 | 43 | O+6 |
| CT | PPP | 26-Jul | 29-Jul | 771 | 3.5 | 51 | 43 | O+8 |
| FL | PPP | 26-Jul | 29-Jul | 871 | 3.3 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
| FL | Quinnipiac | 24-Jul | 30-Jul | 1177 | — | 51 | 45 | O+6 |
| GA | SurveyUSA | 29-Jul | 29-Jul | 1169 | — | 42 | 50 | R+8 |
| GA | InsiderAdvantage | 24-Jul | 24-Jul | 591 | — | 40.5 | 49.8 | R+9.3 |
| IN | Rasmussen | 31-Jul | 01-Aug | 400 | 5.0 | 35 | 51 | R+16 |
| MI | EPIC/MRA | 24-Jul | 31-Jul | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 42 | O+6 |
| MO | Rasmussen | 30-Jul | 30-Jul | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 50 | R+6 |
| MO | Mason-Dixon | 23-Jul | 25-Jul | 625 | 4.0 | 42 | 51 | R+9 |
| MO | WeAskAmerica | 24-Jul | 24-Jul | 1172 | 3.0 | 39.7 | 49.0 | R+9.3 |
| NV | Rasmussen | 24-Jul | 24-Jul | 500 | 4.5 | 50 | 45 | O+5 |
| NJ | Fairleigh Dickinson | 23-Jul | 29-Jul | 849 | 3.5 | 49 | 36 | O+13 |
| NJ | Monmouth | 18-Jul | 22-Jul | 535 | 4.2 | 50 | 42 | O+8 |
| NC | PPP | 02-Aug | 05-Aug | 813 | 3.4 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
| NC | Rasmussen | 01-Aug | 01-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 44 | 49 | R+5 |
| OH | Quinnipiac | 24-Jul | 30-Jul | 1193 | — | 50 | 44 | O+6 |
| OH | WeAskAmerica | 24-Jul | 24-Jul | 1115 | 3.0 | 47.8 | 40.2 | O+7.6 |
| OH | Magellan Strategies | 23-Jul | 24-Jul | 597 | 4.0 | 45 | 43 | O+2 |
| PA | Quinnipiac | 24-Jul | 30-Jul | 1168 | — | 53 | 42 | O+11 |
| SD | Neilson Brothers | 19-Jul | 23-Jul | 546 | 4.2 | 42 | 49 | R+7 |
| VA | Capitol Correspondent | 30-Jul | 31-Jul | 563 | 4.1 | 44.2 | 39.6 | O+4.6 |
| WA | SurveyUSA | 01-Aug | 02-Aug | 524 | 4.4 | 54.1 | 37.0 | O+17.1 |
| WI | Rasmussen | 25-Jul | 25-Jul | 500 | 4.5 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
Romney is running strong in the places you’d expect: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia (in 2 polls), and South Dakota.
Indiana has been something of a mystery. Obama eked out a win in 2008, and there hasn’t been much polling because the state law makes polling difficult. The new (very small) Rasmussen poll finds Romney with a solid lead.
Missouri is also looking pretty solid for Romney with a +6, +9, and +9 in the new polls.
North Carolina goes both ways, giving Obama a +3% and Romney a +5% lead. Combined with one other recent poll, Obama’s chances in the state are a 53% probability of winning (now):
Two Colorado polls give Obama the edge there, with an 81% probability of taking the state.
Florida gives Obama a tiny (+1%) lead. He has now taken three consecutive polls, and four of the six current polls.
Remember when Pennsylvania used to be considered a swing state? It’s pretty hard to make a straight-faced argument that the state will switch to Romney:
The other swing state, Ohio, gets three polls this week, and all three go for Obama. Here again, Ohio is pretty consistently putting Obama over Romney:
Wisconsin gives Obama a slender +3% lead. This is the fifth consecutive lead for Obama, going back to mid-June. The two polls, taken together, give Obama a 96% chance of taking the state.
Nevada has Obama up by a single-digit (+5%) lead over Romney, but there can be little question about the state now. Consider this: Romney has not led in the last eleven polls. One has to go back to March—March of 2011, not 2012—to find a poll with Romney in the lead.
With this Michigan poll, giving Obama a +6% lead, Obama has “won” three of the four current polls.
Virginia almost matches Florida for being a swing state. This time, Obama takes the lead. Perhaps we can discern a small Obama edge in the recent polling history:
Finally, we have no surprises in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Washington giving Obama the lead.
With all these new polls, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,968 times and Romney wins 32 times. Obama receives (on average) 336 (+9) to Romney’s 202 (-9) electoral votes. Based on simulations, in an election held now, we’d expect Obama to have almost a 100.0% probability of beating Romney.











