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GOPolitburo Chair Chris Vance issued a typically defiant press release today.

(Sound of crickets chirping.)

The Republicans, whose aggressive PR campaign so successfully pushed the news cycle for months, now appear on the defensive… and while Vance’s recent statements have been characteristically dishonest, this one is particularly lame. I was talking to Andrew over at Pacific NW Portal, and he suggested we really need to roast Vance for this press release after Dino Rossi loses his case. But my acute sense of chivalry compels me to make fun of him now… particularly for this amusingly bold proclamation:

“With 13 days left until the trial, we are more confident then [sic] ever that we will win this case,” Vance concluded.

Which leads me to conclude that either they were never really all that confident to begin with, and/or that Vance and his attorneys are really, really stupid. Or perhaps that Vance is (gasp) lying. This quote is kind of like saying that “we are more confident than ever that we’ll find WMDs in Iraq,” or that “Crisco is part of a heart-healthy diet.” It’s time to move on Chris… if you don’t admit the lie, we’ll only spank you harder.

But if you really are more confident than ever, prove it… I want to hear these words coming out of Rossi’s mouth.

UPDATE:
Vance’s press release was in response to former Gov. Gary Locke’s public appeal to Dino Rossi to drop his lawsuit. So of course our good friend Stefan over at (u)SP picks up Vance’s “Desperate Democrats” theme, and questions Locke’s timing.

The timing is interesting. The trial is set to start in less than two weeks. At this point, Rossi is obviously not going to concede, especially when the call comes from a prominent Democrat. By making such an appeal, Gary Locke makes himself look more than a little bit foolish. If the case for Rossi is as hopeless as the Democrat lawyers (speaking through their official spokesman) want you to believe, why would Gary Locke bother to make a fool of himself with such a lame appeal? Why wouldn’t he just wait quietly and bide his time knowing that the Republican case will self-destruct in court anyway? The only reason I can imagine that Locke would speak out now and risk looking like a dope, is if he were convinced that the Democrat case was in serious trouble and he wanted to rally his own party faithful.

First, I’d just like to point out how amusing it is, that after aping yet another GOP press release, Stefan ironically labels me the Democrat lawyers’ “official spokesman.” If that’s true, then the Dems owe me for an awful lot of billable hours. Hmm… perhaps Stefan can help me out on what the going hourly rate is these days for propagandistic shilling?

Second… well… what a bizzaro-world piece of twisted, ass-backwards logic. Turtles are better known for sticking their necks out than our former governor, so if you want conclusive evidence that the train has reached the station, look no further than Locke climbing onboard and announcing its imminent arrival. Don’t get me wrong, I always felt Locke was an honest, well-meaning, competent administrator… but bold leadership isn’t exactly his schtick. If, as Stefan fantasizes, Locke thought the Democrats’ case was in trouble, the last thing he would do is “risk looking like a dope” by calling for Rossi to drop his case.

And of course, to Stefan, his political opponents are never just ceaselessly devious, they are also criminal… or at the very least, unethical:

How would Gary Locke be in a position to know how the trial was shaping up? Curiously, he was brought on as a partner at Davis Wright Tremaine, the firm which is representing the Republicans in the election contest.

I suspect that Gary Locke got a peek at the case his partners’ are preparing, had an “oh, shit!” moment, and felt a desperate urge to throw cold water on Dino Rossi.

That’s a pretty pathetic thing for Locke to do, especially since he has a fiduciary duty to all of his firm’s clients, not just the ones whose politics he shares.

Hey, speaking of “fiduciary duty”… here’s an idea Stefan: maybe Locke is asking Rossi to stop his lawsuit now, because he fears the GOP may be unable to their $3 million (and growing) legal bill? As a partner, such a default would hit Locke squarely in the wallet, and there’s no sense throwing good money after bad.

Hey, I almost forgot… today is my one-year blogoversary.

A year ago today, I posted my first blog entry: “Comedy is easy, politics is hard.” Re-reading it, I obviously had no idea what I was getting myself into.

Truth is, I hadn’t really been following the blogosphere much, and looked to the relaunched HA mostly as an exercise in forcing myself to write every day. I had read an article on blogging in the New York Times that made the amusing observation that never before had so much been written, by so many, for so few readers. And so with modest expectations, I set a relatively ambitious target of 200 daily readers after 12 months.

Nobody is more surprised than me to have overshot that target by about a thousand readers a day.

As I type this, at about 5 p.m., HA has already logged over 1,100 unique IPs for the day. I don’t generally like to reveal my site stats, and I have no plans to publish them on a regular basis, but for the curious, here are some excerpts from my current weekly Site Meter report:

VISITS:
  Average Per Day          1,162
  Average Visit Length      6:08
PAGE VIEWS:
  Average Per Day          3,151
  Average Per Visit          2.7

While I haven’t done much research, I’m pretty sure this makes HA the most widely read liberal blog covering WA state politics. Indeed, it probably makes HA the number two local political blog, second only to the much hyped (un)Sound Politics.

I am particularly gratified by the amount of time my readers spend on HA. I don’t know of another blog whose visit-length and page-per-visit stats even come close… and while I’m not sure if these statistics are significant, the raucous, lively comment threads certainly are. During my first few months, I was lucky to get a single comment per post, but now my threads routinely reach triple digits, and often number several hundred a day. My threads are a bizarre place, where useful information is exchanged despite the insults and obscenities flying in all directions. Unlike the sterile, troll-less threads one typically finds elsewhere, we encourage comments from those on the other side… even the really, really stupid ones. So thank you all for participating. (Well… most of you.)

Anyway, perhaps I’ll gather my thoughts and post some more insightful observations on my first year blogging when I have some more time. But I just wanted to acknowledge before the day passes, that without all of you, I’d just be typing into the ether.

So… thanks.

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. I alas, cannot attend tonight, but I’ll try to remember to lift a glass in solidarity at the appointed hour.

Andrew has once again updated the already excellent Pacific Northwest Portal, an invaluable tool for keeping up on the region’s growing number of progressive blogs. He has announced the latest improvements in a diary on DailyKos, and I ask all of my readers who are Kos members to sign in and recommend the diary… now.

Progressive bloggers need all the help they can get to catch up with right’s established infrastructure, and frequent coddling by talk radio. Driving traffic to Pacific NW Portal drives traffic to all of us, and helps us get our message out on an equal footing.

If you read the headlines in the MSM on May 2, you might have thought Dino Rossi scored a major legal victory in his lawsuit seeking to overturn the November 2004 gubernatorial election. But after studying the transcript of Judge Bridges’ rulings, my initial impression hasn’t changed: it wasn’t a very good day for Dino. While the Judge hasn’t entirely shut the door on the election contest, he certainly clarified the enormous burden Rossi must overcome in order to prove his case. The Judge also seems quite conscious of the inevitable appeal to the state Supreme Court, and has carefully attempted to insulate his decisions from being overturned.

The first ruling of the day was the one everybody anticipated the most, and it’s the only one that didn’t go entirely against the Republicans. The Democrats had filed a motion to have evidence of a statistical analysis excluded from the proceedings, claiming that such proportioning would be inconsistent with the standard of proof required to invalidate an election. Judge Bridges denied the motion, concluding that neither the statutes nor the courts had established guidelines in this area, and thus he would consider such evidence, subject to a “Frye hearing.”

The AP immediately broadcast a headline that implied the court had accepted the Republicans “proportional deduction” methodology, ignoring Judge Bridges’ huge caveat:

However — and this is an important however. The denial of this motion should not be interpreted as a pretrial ruling adopting the statistical analysis methodology, so everyone understands that, and that’s the ruling of the Court.

As I had previously mentioned, my fly-on-the-wall reported that the first issue the Judge addressed in conference was scheduling the Frye hearing, at which the Democrats will argue that the GOP’s methodology is bad science, and thus inadmissible — an argument I don’t expect Judge Bridges’ to entirely accept. After all, we can all imagine a situation where some sort of statistical analysis makes perfect sense; for example, if Yakima County’s touch-screen voting machines had somehow randomly erased 10,000 votes, it would be absurd to argue that this error did not cost Rossi the election.

Thus I do not think the Judge will generally rule out the use of proportional deduction per se, but rather decide that the evidence is not “clear and convincing” in this particular case… a shrewd judicial move. If he were to reject proportional deduction as a point of law, it would leave his decision much more vulnerable to being overturned on appeal. But if he rejects its application as part of his evidentiary findings, the decision is virtually appeal-proof.

Clever.

If you are a Rossi supporter, that’s where the good news ends, such as it may be. The rest of the day’s rulings overwhelmingly favored the Democrats.

The next ruling concerned a motion by Democrats that the Republicans must actually prove a felon voted, by finding a signature in a poll book or on an absentee or provisional envelope, rather than simply relying on the voter crediting records. Judge Bridges ruled in favor of the Democrats, stating:

The process of crediting voters with having voted is a post-election administrative exercise that this Court determines does not bear upon the authenticity of election results….

Republicans shrugged off this ruling as little more than a procedural hassle, and indeed it’s likely the vast majority of felons alleged to have voted, probably did cast ballots. (How many were really illegal votes or not, is another question.)

But if Rossi had planned to argue the same case in a court of law as he has in the court of public opinion, then this ruling represents a huge defeat, for it entirely undermines what’s left of the “total mess” theory… that there were hundreds of unexplained “voterless ballots.” This charge was based on the discrepancy between the number of voters credited with voting and the number of ballots cast, but since the court has ruled that voter crediting has no bearing on the authenticity of election results, the so-called “voter credit discrepancy” is entirely meaningless. (And, I should mention, it also totally validates my refutation of the Snark’s OCD-like focus on this issue.)

In launching his contest, Rossi emphasized a number of allegations in support of his contention that the election was a “total mess,” including: that thousands of overseas military voters had been disenfranchised, that King County had illegally enhanced and duplicated tens of thousands of ballots, and that King County tallied hundreds more ballots than voters. It is telling that none of these allegations will be argued in court, their case almost entirely relying upon a statistical analysis of illegal votes by felons, and unverified provisionals.

“Total mess”… my ass.

After a recess the Court addressed two dueling, related motions, that due to some inexplicable bungling on the part of Rossi’s attorneys, resulted in the kind of ruling that legal malpractice cases are made of. The Republican’s motion argued that upon a prima facie showing that a voter is a felon that had not had his rights restored, the Democrats should bear the burden of proving that the vote was not invalid. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ motion asked the Court to exclude all evidence of illegal felon voters unless the R’s could prove six elements, that the voter was 1) convicted of felony, 2) as an adult, 3) had not received a deferred sentence 4) had not had their rights restored, 5) had cast a ballot, and 6) had marked the ballot to indicate a vote for governor.

But before issuing his rulings, Judge Bridges joined Jim West in sharing with us a glimpse of his bedroom fetishes.

As I was lying in bed last night, I had one of the fears that I think attorneys have had often, I’m sure, did I miss something. Am I going to get in court and realize that there is an issue that I just completely overlooked. Mr. Foreman started out his presentation a few minutes ago with the burden of proof argument, that is, is it by a preponderance of the evidence or is it clear, cogent and convincing evidence. And in actuality, I hadn’t anticipated specifically that that argument was before the Court, based on the written materials that the Court had been presented.

Ohmigod… did Rossi’s attorneys really raise the all important issue of burden of proof, without first briefing the Court? Uh-oh….

I’ll make a ruling. If counsel wish, however, to readdress the issue, I invite counsel to do that.

Translation of obtuse legalese: “You fucking morons.”

Up until this point, Judge Bridges rulings had been rather brief, but perhaps spurred on by the GOP’s amateur performance in arguing what, by any measure, was a truly stupid motion to begin with, he started lapsing into schoolmarm mode. In denying the Republican motion he ruled that “a felony conviction, coupled with the absence of a certificate of discharge… does not establish a prima facie case of illegal felon voting.” He then went on to lecture the GOP attorneys on some legal fundamentals, explaining why the burden of proof rests with the contesting party:

The reasons the burden of proof does not shift is grounded in both our case law as well as our statutes, and the Court, of course, as are counsel, we’re all mindful that the courts of this state presume the certified results of an election to be valid unless the contrary is clearly established. And unless an election is clearly invalid, when the people have spoken their verdict should not be disturbed by the courts.

Just to be sure the Republicans got the point, he then went on to cite statute that stated that registration is presumptive evidence of a person’s right to vote, and that when a voter’s right is challenged, the burden rests with the challenger, and must be proved by “clear and convincing evidence.” The same standard, the Judge ruled, should apply when election results are challenged under RCW 29A.68.020.

Inasmuch as voting is a constitutional right, no vote should be held illegal and discounted absent clear proof that the voter was legally disenfranchised.

Any questions? I didn’t think so.

Next the Judge denied the Democrats motion, but after doing so, issued guidelines for establishing that a felon vote was illegal, pretty much along the lines of what they had requested: that the individual was 1) convicted as an adult, 2) of a felony, not a misdemeanor, 3) was not given a deferred sentence, 4) did not have rights restored, 5) cast a ballot, and 6) marked the ballot for governor. Of course, number 6 is impossible, which the Judge duly notes, but says: try anyway.

And then came the killer. (Yes, it gets worse.)

With respect to and responding to Mr. Foreman as to simply what is the burden of proof, I’m going to say it’s clear and convincing.

At this point, while MSM headlines are still proclaiming a big Rossi victory, his attorneys are probably shitting in their pants. “Clear and convincing” is a very high standard, and it doesn’t just apply to illegal votes, but to the entire case. So for those of you still clinging to the fantasy that the legal definition of “appears” is “appears to Stefan,” it’s time to start moving towards the fifth stage of grief.

And it only gets worse, for now the Judge starts to get a little improvisational. Judge Bridges remarks that he’s notices a theme to the Republicans’ arguments — that an election may be invalidated where the number of illegal votes exceed the margin of victory, without proving which party was credited with illegal votes — and he wants to get this issue “out of the way.” Judge Bridges explains that,

Washington’s election contest statutes clearly require the contestant to show illegal votes or misconduct changed the election result based on RCW 29A.68.110 and .070.

He cites the much debated Foulkes v Hayes case, where the court set aside an election based on evidence that ballots were fraudulently altered, without requiring proof that the result had changed. But, Judge Bridges notes, that Foulkes does not mention these specific statutes. Neither, he notes, does Hill v. Howell, where the court also suggested that “such a showing might not be required where fraud, intimidation or a fundamental disregard of the law had occurred.” Indeed, there’s only be one case where the courts did not require “proof of causation,” and that was Foulkes, a case that involved fraud.

But in our case here today, the petitioners have never alleged, to the Court’s knowledge, or even alluded to fraud or voter intimidation.

Hmmm. I’m guessing that may come as a shock to those of you who have gotten all your election contest coverage from talk radio and the right-wing blogs. So if that describes you, you may not want to read the following:

The rule urged by petitioners may be a wise one and a tempting choice for the Court. However, the Washington legislature has, by enacting RCW 29A.68.110 and .070, removed this choice from this Court’s discretion. The statutory command is clear and the Court should not invalidate the election upon proof the number of illegal votes exceeded the margin of victory.

The final issue of the day was a Republican motion to exclude all Democratic evidence of offsetting illegal votes and other irregularities, a gambit that perhaps was not quite the stupidest motion of the day, but certainly vied for the title of “Most Desperate and Futile.” Needless to say, the Judge denied the motion.

Conclusions

Rossi is toast.

It doesn’t take a genius to see which way Judge Bridges is leaning on this one, and “leaning” is a dramatic understatement… he’s virtually horizontal. Furthermore, he’s carefully constructing a decision that will be extremely difficult to appeal. Every motion to exclude evidence on a point of law has been denied; instead, the decision will be made based on his evidentiary findings.

Of course, none of this is a surprise… to me. I never thought Rossi had much of a case. There had been some thoughtful analysis coming from the other side, but most of it was based on a misinterpretation of the Foulkes decision, as I have previously pointed out here and here. And now even Rossi supporters are beginning to admit the inevitable.

Anyway, sorry to get so wordy. Now that all the evidence is in, and the standards of proof settled, I’ll follow up sometime soon with a brief overview.

Tune in to AM-1090 this morning between 9am and noon, to listen to me on the Al Franken Show. (I’ll be the guy in the audience laughing and applauding.) Yup, I’m off to Town Hall for the live recording, so if there’s any breaking news today, look for it elsewhere.

I’ll post later today with a report on the show. Also coming up… my analysis of the transcript of Judge Bridges’ rulings from last week’s hearing. (Hint: it don’t look so good for Dino.)

UPDATE:
I’m not gonna provide a play-by-play of the Al Franken Show today, because if you really cared you would have actually listened to it. Besides, Andrew over at NW Progressive Blog does a pretty good job of covering the day’s events; he even got a one-on-one interview with Al, as did Michael Hood of the excellent blog blatherWatch.

The show, as always, was funny and informative… and all three local guests, Rep. Jay Inslee, KC Executive Ron Sims, and Stranger Editor-in-Chief Dan Savage gave wonderful performances, each playing well off of Al and Katherine in their own distinct way. Perhaps the best line of the day was when Al asked Ron “Which is harder… being black or being gay?” Ron wouldn’t bite, and Al provided the punchline: “Being gay… because you don’t have to tell your parents that you are black.”

(By the way, at times like this, when you see what a great speaker Ron Sims is — passionate, comfortable, articulate, even funny — it makes it hard to believe that the Republicans can challenge him with such a dour, stick-in-the-mud like David Irons.)

I have one observation. Sitting in that sold-out auditorium, watching the enthusiasm of the audience, it’s hard to believe that anyone doubted there was a market for liberal talk radio. Sure, NPR draws away a large portion of our listening time, because… well… we just enjoy the kind of in-depth news coverage and intelligent conversation you can only get on NPR. (Plus, we hate commercials.) But there was definitely pent up demand for something like Air America to battle the entrenched right-wing talkers.

The righties have been predicting Air America’s imminent demise since the day it was launched a little more than a year ago, with only four stations. Today it added its 57th station. It is now broadcasting in all of the top ten media markets, and reaches nearly 60% of American households. And if anybody doubts this is a bankable format, tell that to media giant Clear Channel Communications, which now accounts for nearly half of Air America’s affiliates.

In Seattle, KPTK-1090 made respectable gains in the last ratings period, and is now planning local programming in the mornings and on the weekends. (Hmmm… I wouldn’t mind one of those gigs.) While its future is far from certain, and subject to the whims of owner Infinity, KPTK could very well become a permanent fixture on the local radio dial, finally putting liberals on an equal media footing with the propagandists at KVI.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
There has been some discussion in the thread concerning Air America’s ratings. While the righties are free to soothe themselves with misleading analysis and reporting from right-wing blogs, as Clear Channel is demonstrating, the market believes the format is a success. KPTK-1090 Program Director Jim Trapp P-I some hard numbers:

Trapp says the station’s audience is around 85,900 and has almost doubled since it switched from country music to liberal talk radio. The bulk of its daytime listeners spend seven hours per week listening to KPTK, making it one of the top stations in the area by that measure.

Oh man… the Jim West thing just gets weirder and weirder. It’s no surprise considering all the publicity, that new allegations have emerged against the Spokane mayor… but it’s a little odd that one of the latest details was offered by West himself. According to Spokane City Councilwoman Cherie Rodgers, West confessed to wanking off in his City Hall office while visiting gay chat rooms online.

Rodgers said West acknowledged using a city computer to engage in Internet sex in his mayoral office.

“He said, we masturbated,” Rodgers said. “He called it “mutual masturbation’ … a term I hadn’t really heard before,” she said.

“I told him, your private life is your private life. I just have a hard time with your using city computers. He said, I know, I know,” she said.

Um… that’s a little too much information.

I can’t imagine this guy can continue to resist calls for his resignation, and I’m guessing the new mayor’s first official act will be to order a new keyboard.

Online Chat with Spokesman-Review Editor:
And I’m guessing it’s the non-gay-sex kind. Anyway, what with all the attention surrounding the Jim West story, and the controversial way they caught him online with his pants down (apparently, quite literally,) you might have a question or two for Spokesman-Review Editor Steven A. Smith. The online chat begins today at 3 p.m., but you can submit your questions ahead of time here.

Last week I expressed my disappointment in (un)Sound Politics contributor Matt Rosenberg for stooping to the level of his fellow travelers, by attempting to spin a single, anonymous, whacked-out post on an open blog into evidence of a vast, criminal lefty conspiracy. In doing so, I gave Matt the following backhanded compliment (or maybe it’s a forehanded insult):

Of all the contributors to (un)Sound Politics, Matt Rosenberg is perhaps the one who I kinda, sorta, maybe, almost respect the most. His politics are less predictable, his vitriol less vitriolic, and his writing more writerly than his fellow Drudge wannabes.

Well today, Matt has shown me once again why he’s the righty blogger I least love to hate the most. In a post that he surely knew would raise the ire of many of (u)SP’s regular readers, Matt lays into former Montana Gov. Judy Martz for telling a Tacoma Dome crowd of 2,800 at Friday’s 27th annual Pierce County Prayer Breakfast, that the removal of prayer from public schools in 1963 has lead to increased teen pregancy, divorce and lower student test scores, claiming “We have to get back to being a praying nation.”

As Matt points out, teen birth rates have actually been declining since 1963, and teen pregnancy and abortion rates have fallen steadily since 1986 (22% and 43% respectively.) He calls Gov. Martz on her misleading rhetoric:

Former Gov. Martz may tell evangelicals what they want to hear, but does herself and her party no favors making erroneous factual claims on teen XXbirthXX PREGNANCY rates, and ludicrously calling for the re-institution of mandatory prayer in public schools. Worse than that is the imputed causality: as if we could simply peg divorce and academic performance to lack of forced prayer in public schools. What planet is this woman from? This is not MY “big tent” GOP. But rather than run, I say flush out the zealots. We’ve been through the Ellen Craswell thing here in Washington State already, Gov. Martz, give us a break, OK?

If we are to “get back to being a praying nation,” Gov. Martz, it should not, and will not be, because the government compels prayer in public schools, as in the instances leading to the ’63 Supreme Court ruling. Such Nanny-Statism and religious authoritarianism, is antithetical to supposed GOP values of small government.

I think “supposed” is the key word there, Matt. Replay some of the extreme statements from Tom DeLay, Bill Frist and their Justice Sunday patrons, and today’s GOP leadership makes Ellen Craswell look like Madalyn Murray O’Hair.

Anyway, that’s what I like about Matt… he’s not afraid to disagree with the party line, if in fact he really um, disagrees with the party line. So I wish him the best of luck in defending his party from the evangelical extremists… and I sincerely apologize if my compliment further discredits him in the eyes of his (u)SP readers.

I’ve been meaning to blog on this story for a couple of days, and since I’m tired and want to go to sleep, I think I’ll just quickly point you towards this coverage by the AP: “Minister ex-communicates members for not backing Bush.”

The minister of a Haywood County Baptist church is telling members of his congregation that if they’re Democrats, they either need to find another place of worship or support President Bush.

Already, the Reverend Chan Chandler has ex-communicated nine members of East Waynesville Baptist Church. Another 40 members have left in protest.

During last Sunday’s sermon, he acknowledged that church members were upset because he named people, and he says he’ll do it again because he has to according to the word of God.

Chandler could not be reached for comment today, but says his actions weren’t politically motivated.

One former church member says Chandler told some of the members that if they didn’t support George Bush, they needed to resign their positions and get out of the church, or go to the altar, repent and agree to vote for Bush.

Yeah… right… it’s not politically motivated.

This is what comes from hyped up, violent rhetoric that categorizes Democrats as “enemies of faith”… the kind of hate-mongering the far-right usually reserves for gays. And there’s more of this to come.

As a non-Christian, I suppose I’m unqualified to comment on what it is to be a good Christian… but I can’t imagine this is it.

[And before anybody abuses me for the headline, it’s a play on one of the most memorable lines from Mel Brooks’ Blazing Saddles. So I’m not apologizing.]

Live by the cherry-pick, die by the cherry-pick.

In court documents filed before Friday’s deadline, Democrats claim they have identified a total of 743 felons who voted illegally, mostly from pro-Rossi precincts. This is not only more than enough to offset the 946 felon votes claimed by Dino Rossi’s attorneys, but using the GOP’s very own statistical methodology, may even expand Governor Christine Gregoire’s 129-vote margin.

Washington State Democratic Party Chair Paul Berendt also claims that this is evidence that Rossi deliberately concealed evidence of illegal votes cast statewide:

“The discovery of these additional illegal votes reinforces the Democratic Party’s long-held belief that Dino Rossi has concealed illegal votes that benefited him in November.

This new information explains why Dino Rossi argued that evidence of the illegal votes that benefited him should not be considered by the court, because if you look where Dino Rossi wants the court to ignore, he loses even under his own theory.”

The Democrats issued a press release with a map showing 22 counties where they claim Rossi concealed names of felon voters who would have benefited him under his own proportional reduction theory. The Democrats found additional felons in other counties, in precincts that also voted pro-Rossi.

Counties Where Rossi Concealed Illegal Votes

According to the Seattle Times, Democrats have also added two University of Washington professors to their legal team, who plan to argue that felons are more likely to have voted for Rossi than Gregoire.

“We know for a fact that nonunion, blue-collar, Caucasian men vote very disproportionately Republican, and when you look at the felon population in the state of Washington, they are overwhelmingly nonunion, blue-collar, male Caucasians,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Paul Berendt.

“This could be under any other circumstance the prime demographic Republicans target in their” get-out-the-vote effort, he said.

This is an issue we’ve argued forwards and backwards in the comment threads, and I’m guessing we’ll argue it some more. But the point is, if you’re going to settle this election by statistical analysis, you’ve got to make sure you’re analyzing the right statistics. For example, 95 percent of felons are male, and thus it would be misleading to simply infer that precinct is the only significant predictor of how they may have cast their ballot. Republicans would like you to believe that the real winner of this election can be determined by a simple math equation… but nothing is further from the truth.

Anyway, here’s the final county breakdown of felon votes alleged by Democrats:

Adams	1
Benton	53
Chelan	21
Clallam	12
Clark	57
Columbia	1
Cowlitz	10
Douglas	7
Ferry	6
Franklin	8
Garfield	1
Grant	45
Grays Harbor	1
Island	5
Jefferson	1
King	58
Kitsap	31
Kittitas	8
Klickitat	3
Lewis	22
Lincoln	5
Mason	1
Okanogan	11
Pacific	1
Pierce	86
Skagit	17
Skamania	1
Snohomish	52
Spokane	86
Stevens	1
Thurston	29
Walla Walla	11
Whatcom	8
Whitman	7
Yakima	76

Of course, Republicans are already questioning the accuracy of the Democratic list, and I’m sure some of these names won’t pan out… but then, neither will some on the Republican list. I think it is telling that with all the GOP talk of shoddy work on the part of the Democrats, Vance could come up with very few actual examples in the Times.

State Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance said that 31 of the people included on an early Democratic list were among the felons listed by Republicans. He also said he doubts the accuracy of the Democratic claim that residents at Western State Hospital voted illegally because they had been found mentally incompetent. Vance said Republicans investigated those votes earlier and were unable to determine whether they were illegal.

“It feels to me like the Democrats are desperately trying to build a last line of defense,” Vance said.

The fact is, Rossi would need at least a 700 felon advantage (if you can call it that) to have a hope of prevailing on his most favorable proportional methodology… so the Democrats have plenty of cushion. And if Vance wants to talk about desperation, he should take a look at the comment thread over on (u)SP where they’re finally analyzing the transcript of Judge Bridge’s recent rulings, instead of just reading the AP headlines. Some of the most ardent and articulate defenders of Rossi’s lawsuit, are pretty much conceding it’s over.

I haven’t had a chance yet to more than glance at the transcript myself, but the previews sound very encouraging. More later.

UPDATE:
A clarification. The Democrats press release describes its list as “illegal” votes, not “felon” votes. Apparently, the total number includes all of their alleged irregularities, including ballots that should have been counted, but weren’t. The list identifies the voters by precinct, and the court should make it available to the public by Monday or Tuesday. Looking at the numbers, it would seem that like the R’s, the D’s are not including mishandled provisional ballots in their list.

UDATE, UPDATE:
Okay, I’ve been corrected. The list submitted by Dems identifies 743 probable felon votes in 35 counties. It also identifies 1898 provisional ballots counted before verification in 14 counties, not including King. And there are an additional 780 absentee and provisional ballots from King County that are identified as not being counted due to error by election officials.

My bad.

Ooops. I’m a few hours late with this week’s open thread. Enjoy the free for all.

As expected, Microsoft has reversed itself, once again, on the issue of supporting legislation that adds “sexual orientation” to Washington state’s anti-discrimination laws.

Microsoft will formally support efforts to pass gay rights legislation in Washington state, Chief Executive Steve Ballmer told employees today in an e-mail addressing a flap over the company’s earlier decision to take a neutral stance on the issue in Olympia this year.

“Obviously, the Washington state legislative session has concluded for this year, but if legislation similar to HB 1515 is introduced in future sessions, we will support it,” he said.

Ballmer said the company will also continue supporting efforts to pass similar national legislation.

Microsoft fucked up when they withdrew their support from HB 1515, creating the perception that they had bowed to pressure from conservative evangelicals. But they should be congratulated for so quickly atoning for their mistake, and publicly recognizing that discrimination is bad for their employees, their community and their share holders.

This is also a major political victory for the gay community, proving that there is widespread public support for passage of HB 1515. Republican state Senators Luke Esser, Bill FinkBeiner and Dave Schmidt better be paying close attention.

Of course, I don’t expect my righty readers to really give a shit about my election contest analysis; this is after all, an admittedly liberal blog, so a degree of skepticism is warranted. But to totally dismiss my analysis in favor of the partisan cheerleading over at (u)SP, is bound to intensify their disappointment when the final ruling comes down.

And so as a service to my friends on the other side of the ideological divide, I point you towards an editorial in today’s Seattle Times: “The heavy burden for Republicans.” Whatever you might think of the rest of the paper, this is a conservative editorial board that wholeheartedly endorsed Dino Rossi for governor. And so perhaps some might find their reservations about “proportional deduction” a bit more credible than mine.

So Republicans will bring in experts who will use math to describe likely voting patterns.

Likely is an important word. The math makes sense in an academic debate. But listen carefully. The experts speak in terms such as “likely” or “most likely,” or “estimate” or “infer.”

The math can be solid and the conclusion all wet. Bridges must be careful before allowing a dry statistical formula to overturn an election. Invalidating an election surrounded by uncertainty should be done only if a new approach provides greater certainty. Proportional analysis raises as many questions as it answers.

How do we know felons vote like the rest of voters in a given precinct?

Felons tend to be male; men vote differently than women. National studies show felons tend to be minorities and from low-income backgrounds who vote Democratic. Are minorities as big a share of the Washington state felon population as they are nationwide?

Another unknown: Gregoire, as former state attorney general, was the state’s top law-enforcement officer. How did that affect voting preferences of felons and other illegal voters?

This is not partisan Goldy raising these questions, but Frank Blethen’s hand-picked editorial board. So if you want to shoot the messenger, you better stop by Wal-Mart and load up on some ammunition.

For those expecting some snide, sarcastic commentary on Spokane Mayor Jim West’s bombshell of a scandal, don’t think I haven’t considered it. There is something irresistibly ironic about a gay bashing, conservative politician being caught with his pants down (metaphorically,) soliciting sex from young men.

I’ll leave such commentary to others. But I shall resist.

For Mayor West’s personal tragedy, is… well… tragic — not just for the alleged victims who now accuse him of molesting them as children nearly three decades ago — but also for West himself. To ridicule him as a hypocrite — and he most definitely is — might generate the easy laughs of a Leno monologue… but it would miss the point entirely. For the comic irony of his hypocrisy is much less compelling than the tragic irony of a closeted, gay politician trapped and tortured by the very same anti-gay attitudes he pandered to and perpetuated.

Jim West is the poster child for the tragic consequences of a society that condones discrimination against gays: a man so ashamed of who he was that he assumed the mantel of his persecutors… a man so embarrassed by his own sexuality that even after being forced to admit to soliciting sex from young men, he still denies that he is gay.

For those of us who are straight or openly gay, imagine for a moment not being able to express your love in public… unable to take your vows in front of friends and family… never knowing the simple, everyday joy of holding your beloved’s hand as you sit in a restaurant or walk down the street. That is the life that Jim West led… a life so twisted by fear and self-loathing that he felt he could only express his desires through anonymous encounters set up on internet chat rooms… or much, much worse.

No wonder West joined the right-wing moralists in their crusade against sex, for to him it must have always seemed loveless and dirty. What a sad life to live. What a sad lie. Too sad to warrant my usual sarcasm.

Tony Blair and his Labour Party are predicted to win a historic third straight term, according to exit polls… which of course means George W. Bush will be the next British Prime Minister.

God speed.