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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/10/20, 11:26 pm

Now This: Artists protest immigrant detention with skywriting

Robert Reich: Monopoly mayhem—Corporations win, workers lose.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Racist, Sexual Preditors, and Con-men:

  • Rachel Maddow: Трамп scandals pass by, lose spotlight to new Трамп scandals
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard’s cognitive test revealed
  • The Late Show: Mount Rushmore Presidents leave Трамп’s 4th celebration early
  • WaPo: What Mary Трамп’s book tells us about “dysfunctional” Трамп family
  • Randy Rainbow: Poor deplorable troll:

  • Now This: Clammer says Трамп’s climate agenda is “treason”
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп remixes the Independence Day speech
  • Rachel Maddow: Rep. Adam Schiff, Трамп commuting Stone an appalling attack on rule of law
  • WaPo: Трамп’s tax returns and other Supreme Court rulings, explained by Ruth Marcus
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about fake news reaction to MT. Rushmore 4th of July speech!
  • J-L Cauvin: The Трамп workout
  • Jordan Klepper versus Трамп supporters.
  • The Late Show: A mystic caterpillar makes sense of Kayleigh McEnany’s address
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп threatens to take away casinos
  • Mother Jones: The Supreme Court just told Трамп, “You’re not above the law.”
  • Foundation Singers: Amazing waste:

  • Rachel Maddow: William Barr “decapitates” third U.S. Attorney’s office looking at Трамп
  • J-L Cauvin: Did The Dotard fake his SAT scores
  • Sarah Cooper: How to cognitive
  • The Late Show: Трамп ass-kissing garbage makes a horse sing
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп EXPLODES on Brett Kavanaugh after taxes case!!!

Anthony Anderson: Political monologue.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

ТрампPlague:

  • Chris Hayes: How Трамп’s hurricane Maria response foreshadowed his coronavirus failure
  • Sarah Cooper: How to mask
  • Now This: Watching FAUX News coincides with higher COVID-19 death rates
  • The New York Times: How ICE helped spread the coronavirus
  • WaPo: Трамп vs. the coronavirus:

  • Chris Hayes: GOP is becoming a pro-virus party before our eyes
  • Matthew Buechele: If people today were on the Titanic….
  • Trevor: Growing up in the time of corona
  • Rachel Maddow: Coronavirus follows Трамп on tour
  • Now This: Bill Nye conducts a mask experiment
  • Chris Hayes: The last person we should trust with safety of kids
  • Vox: How humans are making pandemics more likely
  • The Late Show: Mount Rushmore Presidents leave Трамп’s 4th celebration early

Roy Zimmerman: The Orange County Rolling Acres Senior Center Cannabis Club

Now This: Joe Biden and Ady Barkan on the future of long-term healthcare.

Black Lives Matter:

  • Jaboukie Young-White in quarantine
  • BuzzFeed: Why police reform doesn’t work in the U.S.
  • AJ+: I was nearly lynched on Independence Day
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Police body cam shows George Floyd’s last word was “please”
  • Anthony Anderson chats with Bubba Wallace
  • Lauren Mayer: Stand Up and Act (Words Are Just the Beginning)
  • The New York Times: What it means to be policed in America
  • VICE News: Are the Boogaloo Bois a national security threat?

WaPo: Biden’s $700 billion economic plan, in 4 minutes.

The Late Show: Aliens discover racist Tucker Carlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

116 Stoopid Comments

Election 2020: Trump slides

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/7/20, 7:47 pm

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 375 electoral votes
Mean of 163 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.

Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!

The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.

[Read more…]

18 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/3/20, 9:28 pm

Now This: Sen. Mark Warner on cleaning up national parks.

BuzzFeed: How Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos will make 1 million dollars during this 7 minute video.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Immorals, Incompetents, and Incontenents:

  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп was offered Bounty paper towels from Putin
  • Songify The News: Трамп v. Ramp
  • Lauren Mayer: Трамп will go down!
  • Now This: Senator Tammy Duckworth slams Трамп over Russian bounties
  • Now This: The Dotard’s guide to American history:

  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп calls with world leaders leaked!
  • Robert Reich: Трамп’s 2020 election strategy in 25 steps
  • Samantha Bee: Трамп attacks our nation’s free press, part 1
  • Samantha Bee: Трамп’s ongoing attacks on our nation’s free press, part 2
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп denies VERY STRONGLY knowing Ghislaine Maxwell
  • Mark Fiore: Make fireworks great again!
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп’s last minute, hastily put together, totally unrehearsed “Happy Canada Day” speech.
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard watches Hamilton on Disney+
  • Now This: Veterans call out Трамп over paid killings of U.S. troops

Samantha Bee: How to save the Postal Service

Now This: The fight to expand vote-by-mail before election day.

Trevor: The CIA is hiring.

Black Lives Matter:

  • Full Frontal: Mike Brown learns how to do the uprising thing.
  • WaPo: How to be anti-racist—It’s more than books, quotes and Blackout Tuesday
  • Vox: A brief history of police impunity in Black deaths
  • The Daily Show: Educate your White friends with Blacklexa
  • Jonathan Mann: Karen’s got a gun.
  • New York Times: Why some Black Americans need guns to feel safe in their country
  • The Daily Show: White people unnecessarily calling the cops on Black people
  • WaPo: “Enough is enough”—Seattle police clear protest zone after mayor’s executive order

Hasan Minhaj : Why doing taxes is so hard.

The Foundation Singers: NOVEMBER!

ТрампPlague:

  • John Oliver: Coronavirus IX—Evictions
  • Sky News: “Heading to pure hell”—Texas counts the cost of lifting coronavirus lockdown early
  • Randy Rainbow: COVER YOUR FREAKIN’ FACE!:

  • John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about all the names for Covid, then announces he is going to sue the Kung flu!
  • Roll Call: How to stay safe this July 4th
  • Now This: Biden, “Трамп doesn’t understand the basic facts of the COVID-19 crisis”
  • Jonathan Mann: Masks, I think they work (Sean Hannity remix)
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s Mt Rushmore speech on July 3rd (preview)

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Now This: Who is Ron DeSantis? (Narrated by Yedoye Travis)

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

154 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 6/26/20, 11:15 pm

Hasan Minaj and AOC discuss the Green New Deal

Stephen and Jon: Joe Biden, humbled by grief, may be the leader America needs right now

ТрампPlague:

  • Stephen: Трамп stoked a culture war over masks that put everyone at risk…even the Secret Service
  • Bruce W. Nelson: The woodtick song (inspired by Mike Pence)
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп delivers Arizona church rally
  • Trevor: U.S. hits all-time high in coronavirus cases
  • Bill Maher: Live free or die hard
  • Lauren Mayer: Empty chairs at empty eallies
  • Jonathan Mann: Please wear a mask
  • The Late Show: Jesus wants nothing to do with Mike Pence’s policies
  • John Oliver: Coronavirus VIII—Prisons and jails
  • Reflect: Трамп threatens rule of law by firing New York District Attorney Geoffrey Berman
  • Stephen: Трамп’s risky rally tour touches down in covid hotspot Arizona as cases spike in 29 states
  • Jimmy Fallon: Mike Pence refuses to wear mask at coronavirus briefing
  • Seth Meyers: Trump amps up the racism because he’s failed at everything else
  • Trevor: Трамп’s Tulsa rally flop
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп DESTROYS Brad Parscale and Ron DeSantis (LEAKED CALL)
  • The Late Show: Rep. Louie Gohmert gets douchebusted
  • Samantha Bee: Black trans lives matter
  • Samantha Bee: Violence against trans women of color
  • James Corden: Trump takes Tulsa, dominates drinking water
  • Stephen: As Arizona covid cases spike, Трамп delivers speech to packed crowd of maskless student supporters
  • Jimmy Dore: Chris Christie has cure for COVID-19!
  • The Late Show: Oklahoma! Where the crowd turnout was really lame:

  • Stephen: Трамп does an epic walk of shame after TikTok users and K-Pop fans troll his Tulsa rally
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп meets the President of Poland
  • Sarah Cooper: How to empty seat
  • Courtney Jaye: Boogie on Down to the Rally (Pt. 1)
  • Courtney Jaye: Boogie on Down to the Rally (Pt. 2)
  • Robert Reich: America is not exceptional
  • The Late Show: Michael Bolton sings John Bolton’s book
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Empty Seats, empty heart, empty head
  • Jimmy Fallon: Трамп furious over lack of turnout at Tulsa rally
  • The Late Show: Time for “Answer Plinko” with The Dotard
  • Stephen and Jon: Let’s Address The President As #SwampyDon
  • The Daily Show: The Dotard Трамп—Never not joking
  • Courtney Jaye: The Ballad of Billy Barr
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Tulsa
  • Stephen: Melania Трамп rates The Dotard’s performance at his Tulsa rally debacle
  • The Late Show: The Dotard’s post-rally walk of shame
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп’s Tulsa rally was a flop
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about his Tulsa Rally in his Father’s Day Message
  • Sarah Cooper: How to second term
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard goes after KPOP fans
  • Stephen and Jon: Advice from 1918 and thoughts on Трамп’s handling of the coronavirus

Hasan Minhaj: We’re doing elections wrong

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses

Black Lives Matter:

  • Trevor: Axed Statues and NASCAR racism
  • Mark Fiore: Preserve the racist statues
  • AJ+: Can Black voters swing the 2020 election?
  • Trevor and Jon talk Confederate Statues, COVID-19 & “Irresistible”
  • Vox: Why America’s police look like soldiers
  • The Late Show: A message from Mrs. Butterworth
  • Roy Zimmerman: DWB (Driving While Black):

  • The Chicks: #MARCHMARCH
  • Trevor: Noose in Bubba Wallace’s garage was not a hate crime
  • The New York Times: Philadelphia police violated their own guidelines, here’s how
  • Vox: What “defund the police” really means
  • Hasan Minaj and Keith Ellison on justice for George Floyd
  • Trevor: Bubba Wallace on the noose incident & bringing BLM into NASCAR

WaPo: House passes bill to make D.C. the 51st state.

Samantha Bee: Tarana Burke on the connection between police brutality and sexual violence

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

178 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 6/20/20, 12:57 am

Samantha Bee: The Republican campaign of voter suppression, Pt. 1.

Samantha Bee: The Republican campaign of voter suppression, Pt. 2.

Robert Reich: Seven ways 2020 has exposed America

SCOTUS Surprises:

  • Roll Call: “I cried tears of joy”—Democratic leaders react to DACA decision
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп complains about DACA and Tulsa!
  • Trevor: Supreme Court outlaws LGBTQ workplace discrimination
  • Now This: What the Supreme Court’s DACA ruling means
  • Roll Call: Will the Supreme Court’s landmark LGBTQ decision impact health care discrimination rules?
  • Seth Meyers: Supreme Court rules on LGBTQ rights, police reform gains steam
  • Trevor: SCOTUS protects dreamers

The Daily Show: FAUX News’s law & order experts

Bruce W. Nelson: I know a wrestling coach who’ll kick your butt (a Ted Cruz song).

ТрампPlague:

  • Seth Meyers: Sen. Bernie Sanders is doing everything to prevent Трамп’s reelection
  • Bruce W. Nelson: The immutable, unsuitable Dotard Трамп
  • Trevor: Kimberly Jones speaking out about Black experiences in America
  • The Late Show: Watch your step, Mr. Pres’nit
  • Foundation Singers: “Stay home Oklahoma” with Oklahoman Brad Pitt:

  • Sarah Cooper: How to more cases than anybody in the world
  • Hasan Minhaj: In coronavirus world, is college still worth it?
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп wishes himself happy birthday, because NO ONE can do it better
  • Stephen: Трамп’s bone spurs act up at West Point, denying the President a graceful exit
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трампiversary, Paw Patrol outrage and Pence sells RVs!
  • Vox: Why all Americans should honor Juneteenth
  • The Late Show: Sneak peek at Mary L. Трамп’s tell-all book
  • Bill Maher: America strong
  • Lars Nelson and Bruce W. Nelson: Donnie don’t care about Tulsa
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп’s ramp rant tweet verbatim
  • Trevor: Bolton book bombshells—Трамп is corrupt and weird as fuck
  • Seth Meyers: Bolton tries to cash in with Трамп Book
  • Mark Fiore: MAGAmmunity
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп rally in Tulsa
  • Stephen: Leaked excerpts from Bolton’s book detail Трамп’s pattern of corruption and obstruction
  • The Late Show: The Dotard competes in the 2020 West Point Ramp Stakes
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп struggles at West Point and celebrates 74th birthday
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп’s coronavirus cover-up and Bolton’s tell-all book
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп’s West Point water hazard
  • Now This: Joe Biden slams Трамп’s coronavirus response as deaths exceed WWI
  • Jimmy Fallon: Трамп is trying to block the publication of John Bolton’s tell-all book
  • Stephen: Трамп can’t spin his choice of Juneteenth for Tulsa rally, pushes it back a day
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп announces the theme for Tulsa rally
  • The Late Show: John Bolton’s mustache thanks Трамп for making him rich
  • Lauren Mayer: It takes a woman
  • Courtney Jaye: Happy Obama day to you:
    https://twitter.com/TropicaliJaye/status/1272213381865287681
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп fends off tell-all books, supporters fend off masks
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп addresses the West Point ramp with Scott Pelley of 60 Minutes
  • Lars Nelson and Bruce W. Nelson: Thrilled to death
  • The Daily Show: Gun masks—The only mask that’s also a gun

Trevor: Stacey Abrams—“Our time is now” and ending voter suppression.

Black Lives Matter:

  • Trevor: Трамп signs police reform while praising the police
  • The Daily Show: 9-1-1 for White people emergencies
  • Now This: Why COVID-19 hits Black and Latinx communities hardest
  • Bill Maher with Malcolm Nance and Andrew Sullivan: What monuments should we tear down?
  • Stephen: Трамп’s tiny police reform order doesn’t honor his pledge to families of police shooting victims
  • Trevor: Why did Rayshard Brooks have to lose his life?
  • Seth Meyers: Sen. Bernie Sanders Wants police officers to be held accountable for their actions
  • Now This: What “defund the police” really means
  • The Daily Show: A guide for White people Supporting Black lives matter
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп issues police reform executive order
  • Trevor: Civilian militias, Black band-aids & the NFL’s apology
  • Now This: Myths about Confederate monuments
  • Susan Rice: Susan Rice’s advice for Joe Biden.
  • The Daily Show: What is Juneteenth? Dulcé Sloan explains
  • Late Night: Amber Ruffin answers frequently asked Juneteenth questions

Full Frontal: Meet reference man.

Foundation Singers: “Farewell far-right!” Hannity and Murdoch meet Billy Joel:

John Oliver: Facial recognition.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

241 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 6/13/20, 1:10 am

Robert Reich: Who’s really looting America?

ТрампPlague:

  • Courtney Jaye: Babygate
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Cows, Fences and The Dotard Трамп
  • The Late Show: Ghosts of Confederate soldiers have new military base name ideas for Трамп
  • Bill Maher: New Rule—Democracy’s safe word
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Put your mask on!
  • Trevor: Coronavirus is on the upswing
  • Lars von Retriever: MetalTrump–Dig (Mudvayne)
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Bunker Room
  • Lauren Mayer: Ivanka is the new Karen:

  • Courtney Jaye: STFU, Ivanka
  • The Late Show: Platitudes generator can’t handle Ivanka Trump’s commencement speech
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Babygate!
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп defends the Confederacy, complains about polls
  • Robert Reich: The deadly FAUX News-Трамп syndicate
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s back out, COVID sex guidelines & NASCAR flag ban
  • Courtney Jaye: Fuck this fucking president
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Bunker fevor

Courtney Jaye: FAUX News is the devil

The Night the Lights Went Out on Georgia’s Voters:

  • Stephen: Voter suppression plagues Georgia’s primary
  • Trevor: Georgia’s disastrous primary
  • The Late Show: Think you can get past Georgia’s voter suppression boss?

Trevor: Joe Biden on healing the country and acknowledging weaknesses

Black Lives Matter:

  • Stephen: Jon Batiste on leading a musical march for justice
  • Trevor: Confederate symbols are coming down
  • Jonathan Mann: Jackboot
  • Samantha Bee: America’s long-standing tradition of police brutality
  • Daily Show: FAUX News is suddenly anti-protest
  • The Late Show: A special message from Antifa
  • Randy Rainbow: The Bunker Boy:

  • Seth Meyers: Trump sinks in polls as protesters call to defund the police
  • Trevor: Трамп doubles down and Democrats respond to protests
  • Stephen: Megan Rapinoe’s parents taught her that you need to help people, period.
  • Courtney Jaye: Bunker Boy
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп and the police lash out at the Black Lives Matter protests
  • Trevor: Joe Biden on reforming the police
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s “Army,” Mitt Romney marches & Americans come together
  • Stephen: Emmanuel Acho—Being anti-racist means calling out racism wherever you see it
  • Jonathan Mann: The Capitol Hill autonomous zone
  • John Oliver: Police
  • Sarah Cooper: How to bunker
  • Trevor: Cops meet police brutality protests with more police brutality
  • Stephen: Trump openly insults Black Americans by scheduling MAGA rally on Juneteenth in Tulsa, OK
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп tweets conspiracy theory & cousin Micki’s words of hope
  • The USA Singers: The Ballad of George Floyd:

  • Samantha Bee: It’s time to defund the Police
  • Trevor: America protests police brutality and systemic racism
  • The Late Show: Beware…The elderly Antifa!
  • Mark Fiore: Defunding everything but the police
  • Stephen: Calls to defund the police intensify while Трамп attacks Buffalo man assaulted by the cops
  • Trevor: What should we do about police unions?

Hasan Minhaj: The news industry is being destroyed

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

194 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 6/5/20, 11:29 pm

Trevor: A look back at the legacy of stop-and-frisk in New York City.

ТрампPlague:

  • John Oliver: Voting by mail
  • The Late Show: Melania needs a new smile machine
  • Now This: Trump waives environmental protection regulations
  • Bruce W. Nelson: The legend of slimy Don and the wreck of the ship “America”
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп has a new doctor for America
  • The Late Show: New Jersey makes a bid for Трамп’s relocated convention
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп attacks Mattis and builds White House fence
  • Bill Maher with Rosa Brooks and Michael Steele: Blood in the streets next November?
  • Vox: Why Covid-19 is more AND less deadly than we knew
  • Sarah Cooper: Трамп on how to bible
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп demands voter fraud, ballot harvesting & children be OUTLAWED!
  • Bruce W. Nelson: If Трамп were a ship he would be the Titantic
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп responds to Obama’s speech

The Daily Show: Eight times America surprised Trevor.

The Dotard Fiddled While America Burned:

  • Seth Meyers: Mattis Denounces Трамп, Cotton calls for deploying troops against protests
  • Late Night: Pained historical comparison cowboy
  • Conan: Van Jones on George Floyd, police brutality, & what comes next
  • Bill Maher: Is America great enough for you yet?
  • NY Times: We’re sick and tired—Voices From Minneapolis protests
  • The Late Show: The gospel according to Don
  • College Humor: Tide CEO says soap isn’t medicine
  • Late Night: Amber Ruffin’s experience with the police—Skipping in Chicago
  • Now This: Michigan Sheriff joins protesters marching for George Floyd
  • James Corden: Malcolm Corden teaches Трамп how to hold the bible
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп promises to dominate Jesus Christ
  • Foundation Singers: HELL! Трамп, George Floyd & protesters:

  • Stephen: After days of unrest, America needs moral leadership. Instead, we have The Dotard Трамп
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel on protests, Трамп’s bible photo op & white privilege
  • Seth Meyers: Michael Che talks about the Black Lives Matter protests
  • Hasan Minhaj: How coronavirus broke America
  • Conan: Statement on the killing of George Floyd
  • Stephen: Trump sics military on peaceful protesters and clergy to make way for bible photo op
  • The Late Show: God photo-bombs Трамп
  • Late Night: Amber Ruffin’s experience with the police—When I tell you to stop, you stop
  • WaPo: Here’s how to identify law enforcement officers and National Guard units
  • The Daily Show: Experience the upheaval of the 1960’s all over again
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Bunker bitch
  • Stephen: America’s citizens will not be silenced by government intimidation
  • James Corden and Reggie Watts: It’s time for change in the US
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп threatens to deploy military in response to protests
  • Lauren Mayer: I’m a Jew (but I know that ain’t Christian), bible photo-op edition:

  • Jonathan Mann: I am anti fascist and the President says i’m a terrorist
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Trump fumes over bunker & bible photo op
  • Stephen: Chris Hayes—Трамп’s “Enemy of the people” rhetoric has put the press in danger
  • Conan: W. Kamau Bell on #BlackLivesMatter & the importance of showing your work
  • Late Night: Amber Ruffin’s experience with the police—Driving as a teen
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard finally addresses the protests
  • Stephen: Sen. Cory Booker talks race, empathy, and his legislation to stop abuses of power by law enforcement
  • Mark Fiore: Operation Photo Op
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Wanda Sykes on Black Lives Matter, quarantine with her twins & Twitter feud with Scott Baio
  • The Late Show: Трамп’s speech has RoboCop thinking about a career change
  • J-L Cauvin: Bunker Трамп addresses the nation
  • Stephen: Chris Hayes—You couldn’t find a worst person for this moment
  • Late Night: Amber Ruffin’s experience with the police—It’s a new day
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Shaquille O’Neal on George Floyd, discrimination & talking to his sons
  • Hasan Minhaj: We cannot stay silent about George Floyd:

  • Seth Meyers: Трамп’s deranged response to the George Floyd protests
  • Jonathan Mann: Did you hear what happened in Boston
  • Stephen: Shockingly brutal police tactics deployed nationwide as protests unite Americans of all backgrounds
  • Bill Maher: The blue wall of silence
  • WaPo editorial: The rot in policing has spread beyond just ‘a few bad apples’
  • The Late Show: GOP Senators speak out after Трамп gasses U.S. citizens
  • Vox: Protests aren’t what they look like on TV
  • James Corden: Dr. Michael Eric Dyson discusses civil unrest across America
  • Trevor breaks down reparations & white privilege
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп has the strongest sympathy
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп and his bunker, and the Devil and Hell
  • Stephen: Dictator fanboy Трамп gets his wish as military vehicles roll down the streets of Washington
  • Late Night: Amber’s minute of fury—Police violence against peaceful protestors

Wyatt Cenac: Segregation problems and school integration

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

209 Stoopid Comments

Election 2020: Biden still leads in early June

by Darryl — Wednesday, 6/3/20, 9:30 pm

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 354 electoral votes
Mean of 184 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It has been mid-May since I published one of these analyses. back then, Biden led Trump in the electoral college with a mean of 348 to 190 votes.

Now, with over 40 new polls, Biden still leads. In the 10,000 simulated elections, Biden won all 10,000 times. Biden received (on average) 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. If the election was today, we would expect Biden to win with a greater than 99.9% probability.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

30 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/29/20, 11:39 pm

Lauren Mayer: “One Plate at a Time”.

Bill Maher: All bets are off

ТрампPlague:

  • The Daily Show: 100,000 accomplished
  • Trevor: A Costco face mask showdown
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп wants essential churches open!
  • Vox: How coronavirus spreads outdoors vs. indoors
  • Jimmy Kimmel: The Dotard wants to SHUT DOWN Twitter
  • Michael Kosta meets the Grim Reaper
  • Bruce W. Nelson: “Trumps” (with apologies to Joyce Kilmer)
  • Barack Obama: “Pissed Away”:

  • Daily Show: Трамп’s totally not weird way of standing
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп Tuesdays #5
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп blames Obama in song
  • Late Night storytime: Трамп family quarantine
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп golfs & pool parties in the Ozarks
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп fights voting by mail fraud and masks
  • Mother Jones: The racist history behind Трамп’s violent tweet
  • Full Frontal: The Pandemic Diaries
  • Mark Fiore: Human capital stock
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard trashes his supporters in leaked phone call
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Ignore the experts, and listen to Трамп’s gut
  • Daily Show: Microsoft Excel—Coronavirus Edition
  • David Crosby: “What are their names”
  • Red State Update: CHLOROQUINE (Parody of John Deere Green):

  • Hasan Minhaj: Kamala Harris discusses COVID-19 and the election
  • Roy Wood Jr.: Tired of wearing a mask? Leo Deblin has the solution
  • Vox: What Bill Gates hopes we learn from coronavirus
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Donald Trump vaccine (available to Americans, November 3, 2020)
  • J-L Cauvin: Happy Memorial Day from The Dotard
  • AJ+: A tale of two pandemics
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s Twitter feud with Twitter
  • Trevor: Animals in the time of coronavirus

Now This: Michelle Obama surprises students engaged in voter registration.

Hasan Minhaj: The legal marijuana industry is rigged

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Black Lives Matter:

  • Now This: Former V.P. Joe Biden remarks on the killing of George Floyd
  • Trevor: George Floyd, Minneapolis protests, Ahmaud Arbery & Amy Cooper
  • Now This: CNN reporter and crew arrested live on-air in Minneapolis
  • Vice News: Anti-police brutality protests are going national even in a pandemic
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel on George Floyd, riots in Minneapolis & Трамп’s violent stupidity.
  • Now This: Minnesota AG Keith Ellison responds to the killing

Robert Reich: Robert Reich’s advice to the Class of 2020.

Vice News: Navajo Nation may finally get a better shot at voting in the presidential election

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

370 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/22/20, 11:52 pm

Lauren Mayer: It’s not nice to screw Mother Nature.

Stephen chats with Joe Biden, Part I.

Stephen chats with Joe Biden, Part II.

Hasan Minhaj: What happens if you can’t pay rent?

Roll Call: Doggy doo, rucksacks and Starbucks—Congressional hits and misses of the week.

ТрампPlague:

  • The Late Show: Catty Kombat final round—The Dotard Трамп vs. Nancy Pelosi
  • Seth Meyers: Trump attacks vote-by-mail, refuses to wear a mask
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп appoints James Woods to his cabinet!
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Obamagate (the song)
  • Robert Reich: A tale of two pandemics
  • The New Yorker: The rise of Sheriffs opposing lockdown
  • Jaboukie Young White: Rich people in the time of corona
  • Stephen: Muzzled By Трамп, the CDC releases watered down guidelines for reopening
  • Randy Rainbow: DISTRACTION!:

  • Trevor: Top 20 quarantine tips
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп meets with top religious leaders demands churches open now!
  • Sarah Cooper: How to hydroxychloroquine
  • The Late Show: Trump’s miracle drug—side effects may vary
  • SNL: Dr. Birx Ad
  • Trevor: Why are we still having the mask debate?
  • J-L Cauvin: Donald Trump reviews Joe Biden on The Breakfast Club
  • Stephen: Our positively negative President says “We’ll put out the fires” of any second waves of infection
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Hail to our Hydroxychloro Queen!
  • Jimmy Kimmel with another quarantine monologue
  • The Late Show: Mike Pompeo’s aide mixes up his errands
  • Jordan Klepper: Standing up for the anti-anti-lockdown movement
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп says he’s taking hydroxychloroquine
  • J-L Cauvin: Trump Tuesdays—Episode 4
  • Trevor with Madeleine Albright: Diplomacy during coronavirus
  • Bill Maher: Entrance strategy
  • The Late Show: We know why Mike Pompeo wanted the Inspector General fired
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Something great’s going to happen:

  • The Daily Show: FAUX News doesn’t think this man is fit to e President
  • Mark Fiore: MAGA Masks!
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп is “Man of the Year” & “King of Ventilators”
  • Stephen: Трамп fires State Dept. IG to protect Mike Pompeo & reveals he’s taking hydroxychloroquine
  • The Late Show: Human-cow hybrids may provide the cure to COVID-19
  • Trevor: The Mike Pompeo scandal & Трамп’s tantrum over mail-in ballots
  • Seth Meyers: Obama speaks out about Трамп’s coronavirus failures
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп congratulates his law school daughter
  • John Di Domenico: “Testing is OVERRATED and not needed!”
  • The Late Show: Трамп calls Obama incompetent & falls down a manhole
  • The Second City PSA: It’s Okay
  • Trevor: Vaccine updates and Трамп fires another inspector general
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Does Трамп have a death wish?
  • Nancy Pelosi on unapproved drugs and Трамп’s “weight group”
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Amazing medical tips from Трамп
  • The Foundation Singers: “Like a Kidney Stone”:

  • The Late Show: Mike Pompeo’s aide mixes up his errands
  • WaPo: COVID-19 myths debunked by Congressional Candidate Qasim Rashid
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп delivers commencement speech for class of 2020
  • Stephen: Трамп claps back after Pelosi says the “morbidly obese” President shouldn’t take hydroxychloroquine
  • Dr. Seema Yasmin: Doctor explains how fast a COVID-19 vaccine could be created
  • Vox: One reason why coronavirus hits black people the hardest
  • Trevor: Трамп takes hydroxychloroquine
  • Jon Oliver: Coronavirus VII—Sports
  • Bruce W. Nelson: He’s Just a Victim (No one’s suffered like The Dotard Трамп)
  • The Late Show: GOP recruits pro-Трамп doctors to support reopening push

Bill Maher: New Rule—Prime boss.

Winlar: Strip mall zoo.

Jonathan Mann: Climb the rope! Thanks, China (Ben Sasse Commencment remix).

Trevor: President Obama speaks to the Class of 2020.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

334 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/15/20, 11:16 pm

Samantha Bee: RoboSam and the rise of telemedicine.

The Daily Show: A message for the graduation class of 2020.

John Oliver: USPS.

Jonathan Mann: You chose Alex Jones.

Vox: Why beef is the worst food for the climate.

TрампPlague:

  • The Daily Show: Desi Lydic calls Aunt Jeanine
  • Stephen: Tрамп insists we’ve “prevailed” as Dr. Fauci refuses to sugarcoat his coronavirus outlook
  • Reflect: Tрамп shows off bio-hazard binder to trick Americans into thinking he knew what he was doing
  • J-L Cauvin: Tрамп Tuesday, Episode 2
  • Seth Meyers: Whistleblower Rick Bright’s damning testimony on Tрамп’s COVID-19 failures
  • SNL Weekend Update: Jeanine Pirro on coronavirus lockdown protests
  • Trevor: FBI seizes Senator’s phone & Wisconsin Supreme Court overturns lockdown
  • Samantha Bee: How coronavirus is starving the nation, Pt. 1
  • Samantha Bee: How coronavirus is starving the nation, Pt. 2
  • Now This: Dr. Fauci warns Senators against reopening states prematurely
  • The Late Show: Ted Cruz’s hairs seek deliverance from his head
  • Jimmy Kimmel with a quarantine monologue
  • Stephen: Tрамп throws shade at Dr. Rick Bright as the whistleblower warns congress of dark days ahead
  • Mark Fiore: Open for business
  • The Atlantic: Tрамп: A study in leadership
  • Founders Sing: Barr on the run:

  • The Daily Show: Rand Paul’s tie slaps some sense into him
  • Seth Meyers: Trump goes off the rails on Twitter and FAUX News
  • Trevor: What the fuck is “Obamagate”?
  • Ummmm…Tрамп baby
  • Stephen: Jake Tapper on Michael Flynn and norm erosion
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Tрамп DESTROYS 60 Minutes
  • The Late Show: Superhero wants “Obamagate” crime specifics
  • Now This: Whistleblower of coronavirus tried to warn the Tрамп administration
  • Late Night antibody PSA
  • Bruce W. Nelson: A salute to angry Tрамп followers
  • The Daily Show: Tрамп’s coronavirus response timeline
  • SNL Weekend Update: Trump’s valet tests positive for coronavirus
  • Trevor and Desi Lydic: Seriously, what is Obamagate?
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Fauci testifies & Tрамп pushes Obamagate
  • Stephen: Tрамп’s Rose Garden hissy fit, plus the dumbest thing The Dotard has ever said
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Tрамп wants to get to 401K
  • The Late Show: Tрамп will be right here waiting for you
  • Robert Reich: The real reason Tрамп wants to reopen the economy
  • Sarah Cooper: More cases than anybody in the world
  • Seth Meyers: PPP and small businesses
  • SNL: Tрамп graduation speech
  • Trevor: White House coronavirus outbreak
  • Stephen: Jake Tapper on Tрамп’s downplaying of the coronavirus
  • Lars von Retriever: MetalTrump…and justice for all
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Tрамп & FAUX News vs Fauci and no more pants
  • The Daily Show game: What was Tрамп asked about?
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Weak men fear strong women
  • Lauren Mayer: The angry old man:

  • J-L Cauvin: Tрамп Tuesday, Episode 3
  • Vox: Dr. Anthony Fauci, explained
  • The Late Show: Tрамп crashes the Supreme Court’s oral arguments teleconference
  • Full Frontal: Reimagining the nation post-pandemic
  • Trevor: The latest in coronavirus science
  • Stephen: Republicans are sick of Dr. Fauci reminding them of how many people could get sick
  • Now This: Dr. Fauci claps back at Sen. Rand Paul for suggesting schools reopen
  • John Di Domenico: Missing uplifting Tрамп speech Americans want
  • Seth Meyers: Tрамп and FAUX try to distract from coronavirus with “Obamagate”
  • The Daily Show: DUMBKIRK—Tрамп declares war on coronavirus
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Tрамп’s whistleblower tantrum & stupidity on parade
  • USA Singers: We will resist
  • The Late Show: White House staffers worry about catching coronavirus at work
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard re-opens MAR-A-LAGO!

Dulcé Sloan: Why should you fill out the 2020 census?

Barack and Michelle Obama crash a virtual town hall.

BuzzFeed: Everything you need to know about murder hornets in 6 minutes.

The Daily Show: Womansplained—The wage gap, female representation & the E.R.A.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

188 Stoopid Comments

Election analysis: Biden still leads

by Darryl — Thursday, 5/14/20, 9:18 pm

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 348 electoral votes
Mean of 190 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Biden is still leading in today’s analysis. Last week, the score was 359 to 179 electoral votes (on average). Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Biden receives, on average 348 to Trump’s 190 electoral votes.

The difference largely arises from Ohio, where one poll has dropped out and one new poll has been released. Now the three current polls give Trump a 51.3% to 48.7% advantage over Biden, suggesting he would win the state now with an 82% probability. Here is the polling in Ohio to date:

That 4th Marist poll with Biden up +4 dropped out and a new Emerson University poll was released with Trump up +3. Biden won every poll taken in 2018 and 2019, but the candidates have led in two polls apiece in 2020.

Florida is another interesting case. The collection of 4 current polls gives Biden a 51.6% to 48.4% lead over Trump, suggesting Biden would win the state now with a 98.8% probability. The long-term polling shows somewhat mixed results, but Biden leads in the most recent 5 polls. So far, in Florida polling, Biden has led in 13, Trump in 6 and there is one tie.

Finally, let’s look at Wisconsin. You may recall that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes. With only one current poll in hand, Biden leads Trump 57.2% to 42.8%, suggesting Biden would win a Wisconsin election now with a probability greater than 99%. The large margin is misleading in the larger contest of the total polling for the state:

There have been 31 polls testing a Biden–Trump election, all taken since March of 2019. Biden has led in 25 of the polls and Trump in six. But most of the leads are well within the margin of error. Biden has led in the last 6 consecutive polls. The net result is that Wisconsin still feels like a swing state with an edge for Biden.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

6 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 5/9/20, 12:07 am

The Daily Show: Tucker Carlson vs. Tucker Carlson, protest edition.

Jaboukie Young-White: Ending the ban on gay blood donors

Now This: Obama surprises teachers for national teacher appreciation week.

Jonathan Mann: Alex Jones will eat your leftist ass:
https://youtu.be/o5EKuIus-oE

The Late Show: John Ratcliffe vs. Bear Inventor.

ТрампPlague:

  • Stephen: Andrew Cuomo and The Dotard Трамп fundamentally disagree on the value of a human life
  • Trevor: COVID-19 mutates & antibody tests fail
  • The Late Show: Lincoln can’t hold his tongue at Трамп
  • Bill Maher: Dan Savage—Love under lockdown
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Perfect mother’s day, maskless Pence, busy Трамп & mom texts
  • The Late Late Show: Behind the scenes of Трамп’s disinfectant idea
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard defends “Sleepy Joe” Biden!!
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп’s new coronavirus strategy is “Live and let die”
  • Wired: Disease expert compares “Contagion” to COVID-19
  • Trevor: Трамп moves the goalposts & states reopen amid chaos
  • Bruce W. Nelson: We must use more toilet paper (because of Трамп)
  • John Oliver: Coronavirus VI—Testing
  • Mika and Joe: Damning montage of Трамп’s rhetoric as coronavirus death toll rose
  • J-L Cauvin: Happy Mother’s Day from The Dotard Трамп
  • Trevor: Beef shortages & Jared Kushner’s botched PPE response
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s vicious attack against Jimmy
  • Robert Reich: Corporations will not save us from the coronavirus.
  • Seth Meyers: Rep. Ayanna Pressley calls out Трамп’s actions that left us behind the COVID-19 fight
  • Bill Maher: I don’t know it for a fact…I just know it’s true (coronavirus edition)
  • Late Night Storytime: The perfect president:

  • The Late Show: Who put this guy in charge?
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп wants a black wall
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп and his allies have a plan for protecting themselves, not you
  • The New York Times: How does coronavirus antibody testing work?
  • Samantha Bee: The things we should have been doing all along! Brought to you by coronavirus
  • The Daily Show: America CEO Dotard Трамп announces, “Everyone Must Go!”
  • Lauren Mayer: Testing, testing, testing (you lied)
  • Stephen: Трамп recklessly urges a “return to work” at town hall & gambling with lives to boost his re-elect
  • Trevor: Трамп won’t wear a mask and backpedals after task force backlash
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard says he is better than Lincoln
  • Stephen: Трамп’s valet tests positive for COVID-19 as his campaign prepares to deploy their “death star”
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп won’t wear masks & Jane’s pancake stand-off
  • Seth Meyers: Not now, murder hornets
  • Mark Fiore: Supply-siders for death and tax cuts
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Murder Hornets, Dotard Трамп
  • Trevor: A Supreme Court flush & Трамп’s nurse tiff
  • Seth Meyers: The Dotard and Melanie Трамп celebrate National Day of Prayer
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп, Dennis Rodman and the murder hornets
  • Lauren Meyer: “That’s the fight for the right to bowl in Georgia”:

  • The Late Show: Coronavirus vaccine not pumped by deadline
  • Now This: Трамп on all the things “nobody knew”
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Murder hornets, beach protests & Трамп the lyin’ king
  • Reflect: Trump’s train-wreck FAUX and Friends interview on Michael Flynn
  • Trevor: The battle over wearing masks
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп’s FAUX News coronavirus town hall
  • Vox: Why we’re seeing mass layoffs in the US but not the UK
  • USA Singers: We will resist
  • Stephen: Трамп reverses course when he realizes how popular his coronavirus task force has become

Bill Maher: New Rule–Sex monster.

Joe Biden gives an address on the economy.

Jonathan Mann: Murder hornets.

Seth Meyers: Hey! Democrats praising George W. Bush.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

246 Stoopid Comments

Election analyses are back for 2020: Biden leads Trump

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/6/20, 4:04 pm

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 359 electoral votes
Mean of 179 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It’s been some years since you’ve seen one of these election analyses here at HA. Given that Biden and Trump will almost certainly be the nominees of their parties, and given that there are more than 300 state head-to-head polls released, it is time to start these up again.

These analyses use state head-to-head polls and mimic the electoral college process as well as following the rules of each state on how electors are awarded in the state. Most states (and D.C.) use the rule “winner takes all,” but Maine and Nebraska allocates two electors to the state victor and the rest go by the vote of each congressional district.

There are a few states that have no polling yet. These are D.C. (not a state, but it gets three electors anyway), Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. Clearly, these are not swing states. I’ve simply averaged the result from the past 4 elections and always award electors from the state that way. The results are exactly what you would expect–Illinois goes to Biden, South Dakota goes to Trump, etc. Interestingly, Nebraska’s 2nd CD just barely went for Obama in 2008, but NE-2 will be assigned to Trump in these analyses until we get polling that allows the state to be rolled into the simulations.

New polls come out almost daily, so I’ll post new analyses when I have time to collect polls, conduct the analyses, and post results.

So, how do these analyses work? I am using a statistical method called Monte Carlo analysis to, essentially, conduct mock elections in each state. The outcome of each state election is a probabilistic outcome that reflects the number of people polled recently in the state and the fraction of polled individuals saying they would vote for each candidate. Currently, I consider the last two months of polling as “current”, but that window will shrink as the pace of polling picks up. I usually do 100,000 mock elections to simulate what would happen if the election was held now. The FAQ has the details, although I need to update the FAQ for this election cycle.

Note that I do not claim these analyses predict the election outcome. Rather they reflect what we would expect for an election held now. It serves as something like the score in a basketball game. The half-time score only tells you who is leading. A lopsided score may give you an inkling of who will win, but it is just the half-time score. Watching a basketball game is far more interesting when you are allowed to know the score. Likewise, knowing the “score” in an election contest is much more interesting. In developing these analyses, I have tried to be scrupulously unbiased. If all the polls were to be flipped, Trump’s results would look like Biden’s, and Biden’s Trump’s.

Okay, so what would the outcome be if the election was held today? After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins every simulated election. Biden received (on average) 359 electoral votes to Trump’s 179 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06-May-2019 to 06-May-2020, and including polls from the preceding two months. When the purple line is above the dashed line, it means Biden is expected to win. The red and green lines provide “confidence intervals”. For example, at each time point, there was a 95% chance that any simulated election fell between the green lines. If the lower green line dips down to touch the dashed line, it means Trump would have a 2.5% chance of winning.

Here is a plot showing the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] that resulted from the 100,000 simulated elections for the analysis done today (essentially, a vertical slice from the previous graph at today’s date):

[There is much more, including state-by-state analyses below the fold….]

[Read more…]

27 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 5/2/20, 1:10 am

Trevor: Sen. Tammy Duckworth on supporting first responders

Lauren Mayer: We’d like to thank you, Mitch McConnell.

Bill Maher: Eric Holder on the 2020 elections

Samantha Bee: Why we need to save the Postal Service.

Vox: How voting by mail could save the US election.

ТрампPlague:

  • SNL: Dr. Anthony Fauci cold open
  • Trevor: The world sees signs of light at the end of the corona tunnel
  • Stephen: Sen. Schumer, “I would call Dr. Birx & Dr. Fauci before Congress, without Трамп hovering over them
  • Stephen: Sen. Schumer, “No PR act” would prevent Трамп from adding his name to future stimulus checks
  • Mark Fiore: Dr. Dotard J. Трамп, MD
  • Bill Maher: Different shit, same day
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп’s response to fake news disinfectant injection
  • The Late Show: Surfin’ MIA
  • J-L Cauvin: No one works harder than Трамп!!
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Raleigh’s at the rally:

  • Jimmy Kimmel: What Трамп was doing during COVID-19 warnings
  • The Daily Show: Remember when Трамп said coronavirus would disappear in April?
  • NY Times: Social distancing is hard. This astronaut has some advice.
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Hey, you with the sexy mask!
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп ignored coronavirus warnings & Pence refused to wear a mask
  • SNL: Stuck in the house
  • Stephen: You’re doing amazing, Mr. President. See, sarcasm does work!
  • Lars von Retriever: Трамп’s Thunderstruck
  • Trevor: Coronavirus ravages the food supply chain
  • Randy Rainbow: A spoonful of Clorox:

  • The Late Show: Trump’s idea to inject disinfectant inspires new cleaning products
  • Stephen: Jared Kushner declares Трамп’s coronavirus decision-making “a great success story”
  • Trevor: Neighboring in the time of coronavirus
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп NOT the dope of the day!
  • SNL: Message from MI Gov. Whitmer
  • Bill Maher: Immunity booster
  • The Daily Show: BIG NEWS—Трамп reveals ingenious 4-step plan to wipe out coronavirus
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard goes platinum!
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп sinks in polls, claims disinfectant comments were sarcastic
  • Stephen: Трамп is watching, and tweeting about, “This stupid show”
  • John Di Domenico: Trump BLASTS everyone over the corona virus “King Covid 45”:

  • Lauren Mayer: I can’t remember what day it ss
  • Vox: How coronavirus charts can mislead us
  • Robert Reich: From Ukraine to coronavirus—Trump’s abuse of power continues, featuring Robert Reich
  • Mother Jones: Trump’s 100 days of deadly coronavirus denial
  • Now This: Bill Gates explains why U.S. COVID-19 testing is “bogus”
  • Trevor: Immunity in Sweden & Трамп ignored warnings
  • Stephen: Трамп doesn’t talk like a guy who knows what he’s talking about
  • J-L Cauvin: Trump Tuesdays—Episode 1
  • Seth Meyers: Kushner and Трамп call coronavirus response “success story” and “great job”
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s disinfectant debacle
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп’s COVID cures:

  • Trevor: The U.S. hits one million cases of coronavirus
  • Stephen: Sen. Amy Klobuchar & Mayor Pete Buttigieg comment On Трамп’s move to keep meat plants open
  • Wired: Dr. Seema Yasmin on the 5 biggest covid-19 mistakes to avoid as we try to flatten the curve
  • SNL Weekend Update: Трамп suggests injecting disinfectant
  • Trevor: Трамп’s bleach suggestion—sarcasm?
  • Seth Meyers: White House schedules, cancels and then reschedules coronavirus press briefing
  • The Daily Show: Trump’s best words–coronavirus briefing edition
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard wishes the First Third Lady a happy birthday
  • Stephen: Burger enthusiast The Dotard Трамп orders America’s meat plants to stay open
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп blames & complains and celebrities after quarantine

Stephen: How do Democrats win in the midwest? Sen. Amy Klobuchar & Mayor Pete Buttigieg weigh in.

Bill Maher: 24 things you don’t know about Joe Biden.

Trevor: PPP loans sapped by big businesses.

Samantha Bee: Trying to keep up with Kamala Harris

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

153 Stoopid Comments

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It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.

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