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Poll Analysis: McKenna takes the lead

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/25/12, 1:09 am

A new Elway poll has Washington state AG Rob McKenna leading former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee, 47% to 45%. The poll comes on the heels of a Strategies 360 poll showing the race tied up. The Elway poll surveyed 451 likely voters (4.5 MOE) from 18 Oct to 21 Oct.

A Monte Carlo analysis employing a million simulated elections, based only on the responses to this poll, gives McKenna wins 617,196 times and Inslee wins 369,576 times. The analysis suggests that, if the election was held today, McKenna would win with a 62.5% probability and Inslee would win with a 37.5% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

This new poll is one of five recent (October) polls trying to assess this race, and they largely overlap:

	Start	End	Sample		%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Inslee	McKenna
Elway	18-Oct	21-Oct	451	4.5	45.0	47.0
Strategies 360	17-Oct	20-Oct	500	4.4	46.0	46.0
PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	574	—	48.0	42.0
SurveyUSA	12-Oct	14-Oct	543	4.3	47.0	44.0
Washington Poll	01-Oct	16-Oct	644	3.9	47.1	46.3

If you believe the dynamics of this race have not changed much over the several weeks, then a pooled analysis of the five polls can provide additional evidence of the state of the race.

The pooled sample provides 2,712 “votes”, of which 2,487 are for Inslee or McKenna. Inslee receives 1,267 “votes” (46.7%), and McKenna receives 1,220 “votes” (45.0%).

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee 745,625 wins and McKenna 249,491 wins. The analysis suggests that, for an election held now, Inslee would win with a 74.9% probability and McKenna would win with a 25.1% probability:

It’s hard to say which of these two analyses better reflect the dynamics of the race. But, it would be naive to deny that this race has tightened up in the past few weeks.

The Elway poll has a pretty small sample, which means there is more sampling error; but, combined with the Strategies 360 poll, it is perfectly justifiable to suggest that McKenna is really in the lead now.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/23/12, 12:26 pm

We had a great turn-out at the special debate edition of Drinking Liberally last night—a lot of new faces. Tonight we’ll have our regularly-scheduled gathering. Please join us for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Our gatherings are informal. If you show up and don’t immediately recognize the pack of liberals, ask a bartender or server.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? You have options. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Wednesday, the Burien and Bellingham chapters meet. And on Thursday the Woodinville chapter meets.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Poll Analysis: Inslee and McKenna tied up

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 9:30 pm

Strategies 360 has released a new poll that covers, among other things, the Washington state gubernatorial race between former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and state AG Rob Mckenna (R). The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4% MOE) was taken from the 17th to the 20th of October.

The poll is tied up at 46% when leaners are included. (Without leaners, Inslee leads McKenna 43% to 40%, but my policy is to work with the numbers that include leaners.)

Obviously, at 50% each there is little point at running a Monte Carlo analysis. But, we now have four polls covering this race over the past several weeks:

	Start	End	Sample		%	%
Poll	date	date	size	MOE	Inslee	McKenna
Strategies 360	17-Oct	20-Oct	500	4.4	46.0	46.0
PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	574	—	48.0	42.0
SurveyUSA	12-Oct	14-Oct	543	4.3	47.0	44.0
Washington Poll	01-Oct	16-Oct	644	3.9	47.1	46.3

So, it would be worth analyzing all four of these polls together. The pooled polls gives a sample of 2,801 of which 2,558 go for one or the other candidates. Inslee gets 1,323 (47.2%) of the “votes” and McKenna gets 1,235 (44.1%).

The Monte Carlo analysis of 1,000,000 simulated elections using the pooled data gives Inslee wins 890,208 times and McKenna wins 107,592 times. If the election was held now, we would expect Inslee to win with a 89.2% probability and McKenna with a 10.8% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

Clearly, what we have had all October is a very close race, but one in which Inslee has maintained a small edge. It looks to me like the race has tightened up a bit since September, as frequently happens in the final weeks of an election:

The poll had a number of other interesting results for other races as well:

Obama 51%, Romney 35%
Initiative 1240 (Charter schools): 51% support, 34% oppose
Initiative 502 (marijuana): 54% support, 38% oppose
Referendum 74 (Uphold same-sex marriage law): 55% approve, 38% reject

The poll also asked people’s opinion on some topics. In looking for strategies to raise revenue to meet the Supreme Court’s ruling to better fund public education, 54% supported and 41% opposed an income tax on people making more that $200K. For capital gains tax on investment income, 47% supported the idea and 44% opposed. What people really hated was increases in state property tax, sales tax or B&O tax. Most people (59% support, 36% oppose) support an increase in state funding for higher education.

All in all, this survey makes Washington state look solid blue—except for that squeaker of a gubernatorial race.

Debate open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 5:23 pm

The last in a series of presidential debates is on tonight, featuring President Barack Hussein Obama II (D) and former Massachusetts Governor Willard Mitt Romney (R).

This debate will focus on foreign policy. But since Willard has little foreign policy experience beyond a courtesy visit to London (plus Israel and Poland) so that he could totally avoid watch Ann’s dressage horse compete in the Olympics, be prepared for the candidates to twist everything back into domestic issues.

I’ll be at the Montlake Ale House liveblogging as I can. Please join me there, or have fun in the comment threads, if you prefer.

6:04: Romney wins!!!! (the coin toss.)

6:05: Mitt opens with a lot of babbling and proclaims, “We can’t kill out of this mess.” Uh-huh.

6:08: “Gov. Romney, you strategy has been all over the map.” Certainly is was based on his opening answer.

6:09: Mitt wants “Gender equality”. Does he really know what he is saying? But this second answer is so babbly it’s hard to know what he is saying.

6:12: Obama hits Romney HARD on his inconsistent positions on foreign policy.

6:13: Romney hits Obama back on the “after the election” comment to Putin.

6:15: After a short bicker-fest, Obama comes out with a pretty coherent positive agenda.

6:18: Romney doesn’t have a plan for Syria…he just regurgitates factoids about the situation. Then, when he gets down to “action” points, his plan is what the Obama administration is ACTUALLY DOING RIGHT NOW. Sheesh!

6:21: Obama complements Romney on supporting the Obama administration on Libya and then punches him in the nose on his “mission creep” statement.

6:23: Mitt Romney tells us what “we all hear intelligence sources saying”. Damn…I can’t say…left my national security briefing binder at home.

6:27: Mitt declares himself a peacenik

6:28: Both candidates work in domestic issues. Obama did a better job sneaking it in. Romney criticizes the sequestration cuts…as if that’s Obama’s doing!

6:30: Mitt gives a speech directed toward the Priests of the Military Industrial Complex.

6:31: Obama does it again—turning the debate into a list of his accomplishments.

6:32: Obama hits below the belt…”[Romney] praised George Bush for his economic stewardship and Dick Cheney for ….”

6:34: Romney said “teacher’s unions” and Obama looked down! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooo……!!!!!!

6:36: We are now on the topic on whether class size makes a difference. In Afghanistan?!?

6:37: Obama gets surly while Romney babbles on about “his” education successes in MA.

6:39: No, Governor, we cannot afford to repeal Obamacare.

6:40: Obama gets his do-over from Debate 1: “five trillion dollar tax cuts…military spending that the military isn’t asking for…”

6:41: I’m watching NBC. Why is Obama on the right and Romney on the left? This is a conspiracy!!!!

6:42: Romney, “I balanced the budget for the Olympics”. Yes…Governor, with a little help of your taxpayer friends.

6:43: Obama finally defends himself against Romney’s bullshit of blaming Obama for sequestration cuts.

6:44: Obama lands a left hook with the “horses and bayonettes” zinger. Perhaps the best zinger of all three debates!

6:48: Mitt’s flaggey-flag pin is bigger. Obviously, he loves America more.

6:49: Mitt Romney thinks Ahmadinejad has committed more war crimes and crimes against humanity than George W. Bush and Dick Fucking Cheney???? Very curious.

6:51: We have about 20 folks at the Ale House who are, apparently, here for the debate.

6:54: Note to Obama…watch out for Tagg Romney running toward you….

6:55: Obama contrasts his visit to Israel with Romney’s…it seems pretty effective!

6:59: Mitt lets us know he has “a relationship with the Prime Minister of Israel.” No doubt he cultivated that relationship the same way he cultivated a relationship with the Prime Minister of the U.K.

7:01: Obama goes after Romney hard on his flip flopping. I noticed, he always ends those bits with a positive message. Good debate coaching.

7:04: Mitt just told all the terrorists when he will pull out of Afghanistan. Why does he hate our soldiers?

7:08: Bob: “Obama bin Laden”

7:10: I’ve heard Mitt say lots of things about Pakistan, but I am still not sure where he stands and what he would do?

7:11: Mitt drones on about his support for Drones. But, but, but, I thought we couldn’t “kill our way out of this”

7:14: Trending on Twitter (US): #horsesandbayonets

7:18: Via Twitter:

Abby Huntsman ‏@HuntsmanAbby
I’ve never heard two candidates agree more during what is suppose to be a “debate.”

7:17: Mitt wants to label China a “currency manipulator.” That will bring them to their knees.

7:21: Obama pushes the “Romney has bad political instincts” meme: outsourcing, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”, etc.

7:23: Mitt: “I would do nothing to hurt Detroit.” Obama calls him out on that bullshit.

7:25: “Governor, you keep on trying to airbrush history.” Look up history here.

7:28: Romney keeps bringing up the same old bullshit about how much worse things are now then they were when Obama came into office. Two words: “Bikini Graph”

7:31: Mitt: “I want to see growing peace in this country.” Huh? This is the kind of thing that is said when politicians are on autopilot.

7:38: Promoted comment from Michael:

Moderate Mitt’s plans all seem to come down to being just like Obama, only white.

7:47: Debriefing: Michael nails it. Romney etch-a-sketched so far back to the center that he was, essentially, agreeing with Obama more than he was disagreeing. That ends up being a huge problem for him. After all, the power of incumbency is that given identical choices, the devil you know is better than the identical devil you don’t.

But, of course, the other problem is that by becoming The White Obama, he contradicts his past “non-Kenyan” self. You know, like most of the stuff he said in the G.O.P. primary. His strategy depends on potential moderate supporters not being disturbed by his total abdication of past positions. That may have worked 20 years ago, but in the age of The Twitter and a plethora of other social media…maybe not so much.

Poll Analysis: A small surge for Romney

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 3:33 pm

Obama	Romney
93.4% probability of winning	6.6% probability of winning
Mean of 292 electoral votes	Mean of 246 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

We’re at an interesting point in the presidential race. I’ve been running analyses a couple of times a day as new batches of polls are found and entered, and the race has bounced up and down with each batch of polls. (I had a pretty packed weekend, so didn’t have the opportunity to post any of these analyses since my previous analysis.)

For example, yesterday afternoon, Romney was down to about 3% probability of winning. By yesterday late evening, with a few more polls, Romney had surged to something around 17%.

Today’s batch of polls have been mixed, but slightly more favorable to Obama.

Here they are:

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
CA	Reason-Rupe	11-Oct	15-Oct	508	5.1	53	38	O+15
CO	Rasmussen	21-Oct	21-Oct	500	4.5	46	50	R+4
DC	PPP	12-Oct	14-Oct	1222	2.8	88	8	O+80
FL	PPP	18-Oct	18-Oct	800	4.0	47	48	R+1
FL	Rasmussen	18-Oct	18-Oct	750	4.0	46	51	R+5
FL	SurveyUSA	17-Oct	18-Oct	600	4.1	47.5	45.5	O+2.0
FL	FOX News	17-Oct	18-Oct	1130	3.0	45	48	R+3
FL	CNN/OR	17-Oct	18-Oct	681	4.0	48	49	R+1
IA	Rasmussen	21-Oct	21-Oct	500	4.5	48	48	tie
IA	PPP	18-Oct	19-Oct	660	3.8	49	48	O+1
IA	PPP	17-Oct	19-Oct	869	3.3	48	49	R+1
MD	WA Post	11-Oct	15-Oct	843	4.0	60	36	O+24
MO	PPP	19-Oct	21-Oct	582	4.1	46	52	R+6
MO	Rasmussen	17-Oct	17-Oct	500	4.5	43	54	R+11
NV	Mellman Group	15-Oct	17-Oct	600	4.0	51	43	O+8
NH	U NH	17-Oct	21-Oct	773	3.5	51	42	O+9
NH	PPP	17-Oct	19-Oct	1036	3.0	48	49	R+1
NJ	SurveyUSA	17-Oct	18-Oct	577	4.2	56.3	41.5	O+14.9
NJ	Stockton	12-Oct	18-Oct	811	3.5	53	38	O+15
NC	Grove Insight	17-Oct	18-Oct	500	4.4	47	44	O+3
OH	Suffolk	18-Oct	21-Oct	600	4.0	46.5	46.7	R+0.2
OH	PPP	18-Oct	20-Oct	532	4.3	49	48	O+1
OH	Quinnipiac	17-Oct	20-Oct	1548	3.0	50	45	O+5
OH	Gravis Marketing	18-Oct	19-Oct	1943	2.2	47	47	tie
OH	FOX News	17-Oct	18-Oct	1131	3.0	46	43	O+3
OR	SurveyUSA	16-Oct	18-Oct	579	4.2	48.9	42.3	O+6.6
PA	Gravis Marketing	21-Oct	21-Oct	887	3.3	48	45	O+3
PA	Muhlenberg	17-Oct	21-Oct	444	5.0	50	45	O+5
UT	U UT	08-Oct	13-Oct	206	7.6	21	74	R+53
VA	PPP	18-Oct	19-Oct	500	4.4	49	47	O+2
VA	Rasmussen	18-Oct	18-Oct	750	4.0	47	50	R+3
WI	Rasmussen	18-Oct	18-Oct	500	4.5	50	48	O+2

Romney leads in the new Colorado poll. The candidates split 3 and 3, the six current polls. Overall, the edge goes to Obama who earned +1% more “votes”, and would be expected to win now with a 71% probability. Here is the last three weeks of polls in a picture:

In D.C. Obama up by +80% over Romney. That’s not the probability of winning D.C.—that’s the point spread!

The five new Florida polls go 4:1 for Romney. He now leads in 9 of 11 current polls, usually by small, single-digit, margins.

Iowa must be close. We have one tie, a +1% for Romney and a +1% for Obama. Overall, with six current polls that show two ties, one lead for Romney, and three leads for Obama. Together, the polls support Obama winning with a 90% probability right now. Here is the picture:

Two new Missouri polls, two new leads for Romney.

Obama takes the new Nevada poll. He now leads in five of six current polls, and the last one is a tie. Obama’s lead is expected to hold (now, anyway) with a 96% probability.

New Hampshire has been bouncing around for the past week. A new poll give Obama a +9% and another new poll gives Romney a +1%. Of the six current polls, Obama leads in two, Romney in three (but one is very close), and there is one tie. Overall, Obama takes +1% more of the “votes” and has about a 67% probability of winning.

We only get one new North Carolina poll, and it has Obama up by +3%. But Romney leads in four of the five current polls and, overall, has better prospects for winning the state—an 83% probability at this point.

Oh, Ohio, how you tease the Obama supporters and taunt the Romney supporters! There are five new polls and Romney leads in one of these by a +0.2% edge. The raw data are 280 “votes” for Romney and 279 “votes” for Obama. One other poll is a tie, and Obama takes the rest. But from a total of 12 current polls, Obama leads in eight of them. From a total of 11,289 surveyed individuals, Obama takes 51.1% and Romney takes 48.9%. Obama would be expected to win an election now in the state with a 95% probability.

It has been a month since the last Oregon poll, and the new one finds Obama with a modest +6.6% lead over Romney.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both have Obama leading, albeit narrowly. In fact, Obama has single digit leads in seven of eight current polls, with Romney up in the eighth.

Obama takes one of the two new Virginia polls. It has been a long time since that has happened. But Romney easily leads in four of the six current polls, and one of the six was a tie. Overall, Romney gets a 69% probability of taking the state in an election right now. This is clear from the past three weeks:

The new Wisconsin poll goes to Obama, but by a tight +2%. Obama takes all five current polls, but all by small margins. Here is the big picture:

From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,430 times and Romney wins 6,570 times (including the 578 ties). Obama receives (on average) 292 (-8) to Romney’s 246 (+8) electoral votes. Obama has a 93.4% (-3.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 6.6% (+3.3%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22-Oct-2011 to 22-Oct-2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Special debate edition of Drinking Liberally on Monday

by Darryl — Sunday, 10/21/12, 1:51 pm

On Monday there will be a third and final presidential debate. And that sounds like a good excuse to get together for a pint and an opportunity to watch and discuss the debate with a veritable binder-full of fellow liberals. So please join us for another Debate Edition of Seattle’s Drinking Liberally at the Montlake Ale House on Monday evening.

Important Note: We will have sound and video for the debate. But the bar and restaurant has other customers, so the sound may not be as loud as you want, especially with the background of a busy tavern and peripheral conversations. If you are intent on hearing every word, I recommend you bring an FM radio and headsets or earbuds. Additionally, the Ale House has free WiFi for streaming audio. Ask your server for the password.

We will meet at our usual place, the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

The Montlake Ale House opens at 5:00pm, and the presidential debate begins at 6:00pm.

I’ll be liveblogging the debate here.

We’ll still have or regular Tuesday evening gathering of liberals this week, as well. I hope you can make it to one or both events.

Don’t redefine “redefine”

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/20/12, 4:02 pm

Dear Person who left this in my yard:

It’s gone now…got in the way while I was raking.

But before you put up a new one, please have the courtesy to fill out the application in the box by the door. Please print legibly, and pay particular attention the the section labeled, “Next of Kin.”

Love and Kisses,
—Darryl

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/20/12, 12:06 am

Jon does Barack.

Mark Fiore: microtargetting undecideds.

Sam Seder with a new edition of Random Rush.

The Candidates Have Dinner Together:

Obama and Romney joke at Al Smith dinner (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Young TurksAnalyzing Barack’s jokes at the Al Smith charity dinner.
Young TurksAnalyzing Mitt’s jokes at the Al Smith charity dinner.
Maddow: Romney camp embarks on misinformation campaign to hide extremist policy.

Sam Seder: Breaking down Benghazi; the G.O.P.’s scandalquest.

White House: West Wing Week.

Newsy: Another appeal’s court finds DOMA unconstitutional.

Sam Seder: FAUX and Fiends lose their minds over BASIC MATH.

Obama: Commit to vote.

Pap: The continuing G.O.P. war on voting.

Willard (and friends):

Stephen switches positions (via DailyKos).
Mitt Romney’s problems with women.
Young Turks: Romney to CEO’s—‘Help’ employees vote ‘right’ way
Thom: Romney encourages employers to tell employees how to vote
Stephen reveals Mitt’s plans for Day One
Romney recorded asking employers to sway worker’s votes.
Obama explains Romnesia (via Crooks and Liars):
Bashir: Diagnosing Romnesia (via The Political Carnival).
Jennifer Granholm: How Romnesia took the nation by storm.
Sam Seder: Paul Ryan’s pathetic soup kitchen photo op.
Kimmel: Mitt’s new women’s ad
Mitt’s math-challenged tax plan.
Maddow: Bush foreign policy infects Romney campaign
ONN: Mitt’s leaked Google search history!
SlateTV: Romney boys can’t contain their Obama debate anger
Tagg Romney jokes about taking a swing at the President.
Ed: Tagg shows disrespect.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Your dad is a liar…so take a swing at me (via Crooks and Liars).
Sam Seder: Tagg wishes he could punch the President
Sharpton: Tagg Romney’s ‘Take a swing at Obama’ comment is a symptom of GOP disrespect & racism
Zina Saunders: Pick-a-Prez:
Mitt Romney’s condescending views toward women

Maddow: Maricopa County Elections puts wrong election date on form—in Spanish only.

Sam Seder: Federal Appeals Court rules DOMA unconstitutional.

Jennifer Granholm: Debunking conservative myths—what your Republican uncle needs to know.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News or CNN less biased on Romney politicizing death of ex-SEAL.

SlateTV: The Boss is back!

Maddow: Party differences apparent in donor list.

Debate, Town Hall Style:

Stephen: On Megyn Kelly’s town hall debate analysis
Who won?
Key & Peele: Luther on Obama’s town hall debate win.
Thom: Myth Master Mitt Romney.
Sam Seder: Obama smacks Romney’s Libya accusations as offensive
Ann Telnaes: Biden helps Obama prepare for debate 2.
Romney’s way: He talks…you listen.
Sam Seder: Mitt Romney’s Libya FACE PLANT!
Bashir: Right-wing “act of error” on Libya
Right wing debate delusions: An ‘act of terror’ is NOT really a ‘terror attack’?!?
Ed: Right-wingers still blame Candy Crowley for Romney’s poor performance.
Newsy: Romney’s binders full of women
Conan: Obama impresses the judges.
Jon on binders full of women.
Sam Seder: Did Romney make his case for affirmative action with his binders?
Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Romney’s Binders
Ann Telnaes: Another Romney binder.
Young Turks: Binders full of women—great story because MITT LIED
SlateTV: The “Binders full of women” meme
Jonathan Mann: Binders full of Women.

Young Turks: “Lowlife Scumbag”…Congressional debate gets heated.

John Fugelsang: The week in amnesia—a tale of two 9/11s:

Mitchell and Maddow: Obama touts advocacy for women.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Jennifer Granholm: Issa’s sensitive document dump jeoporadizes security.

Sam Seder: Rep. Joe Walsh opens up new front on the War on Women™.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Obama surges to 300

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/18/12, 7:21 pm

Obama	Romney
96.7% probability of winning	3.3% probability of winning
Mean of 300 electoral votes	Mean of 238 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Our previous analysis had seen President Barack Obama slip a little but more, although he still led Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 288 to 250 electoral votes. The analysis further concluded that Obama would only have an 86.5% probability of winning an election now; Romney was at a 13.5% probability of winning.

Some new polls have arrived.

Some comments on polls: First, there were a boatload of polls released by YouGov on Tuesday. If you are an Obama fan, they look pretty encouraging. Alas, I will not be including them in my analysis, as they are on-line polls. For the same reason, I will not include this Zogby poll in Florida showing Obama up +3%.

Second, there is a new New Jersey poll from Neighborhood Research on behalf of Americans for Prosperity released yesterday. It shows Obama with a +7% lead in New Jersey.

I was very tempted to totally ignore a poll from a David Koch group formed out of the Tea Party movement. But the methods section points out that:

This poll was commissioned as a public service to provide citizens with information related to public policy.

Call me a sucker, call me a fool, but until someone can show me that this was a selectively released or intentionally biased poll, I’ll follow my rules and include it.

		start	end	sample		%	%	%
st	poll	date	date	size	MOE	O	R	diff
CO	PPP	16-Oct	18-Oct	1000	3.1	50	47	O+3
CO	Grove Insight	15-Oct	16-Oct	500	4.4	47	44	O+3
CO	WeAskAmerica	15-Oct	15-Oct	1206	2.9	47.0	48.1	R+1.1
CT	PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	1015	3.1	53	44	O+9
CT	U CT	11-Oct	16-Oct	574	4.0	51	37	O+14
CT	Siena	04-Oct	14-Oct	552	4.2	53	38	O+15
IN	Rasmussen	10-Oct	11-Oct	600	4.0	41	54	R+13
IA	Marist	15-Oct	17-Oct	1137	2.9	51	43	O+8
IA	WeAskAmerica	15-Oct	15-Oct	1499	2.6	48.7	45.9	O+2.8
MA	PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	709	3.7	57	39	O+18
MA	Rasmussen	10-Oct	10-Oct	500	4.5	57	42	O+15
MI	EPIC/MRA	17-Oct	17-Oct	800	3.5	52	46	O+6
MI	Denno Research	11-Oct	11-Oct	500	4.5	44.2	40.5	O+3.7
MN	SurveyUSA	12-Oct	14-Oct	550	4.3	50	40	O+10
MT	PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	806	3.5	43	53	R+10
MT	Rasmussen	14-Oct	14-Oct	500	4.5	45	53	R+8
NV	Grove Insight	15-Oct	16-Oct	500	4.4	50	43	O+7
NV	Rasmussen	15-Oct	15-Oct	500	4.5	50	47	O+3
NV	SurveyUSA	11-Oct	15-Oct	806	3.5	48	45	O+3
NH	Rasmussen	15-Oct	15-Oct	500	4.5	50	49	O+1
NH	Suffolk	12-Oct	14-Oct	500	4.4	46.8	47.2	R+0.4
NJ	Neighborhood Research	10-Oct	14-Oct	783	3.5	48.4	41.4	O+7.0
NJ	Quinnipiac	10-Oct	14-Oct	1319	2.7	51	43	O+8
NC	Rasmussen	17-Oct	17-Oct	500	4.5	46	52	R+6
OH	Rasmussen	17-Oct	17-Oct	750	4.0	49	48	O+1
OH	SurveyUSA	12-Oct	15-Oct	613	4.0	45.4	42.4	O+2.9
PA	Quinnipiac	12-Oct	14-Oct	1519	2.5	50	46	O+4
PA	Susquehanna	11-Oct	13-Oct	1376	—	45	49	R+4
WA	PPP	15-Oct	16-Oct	574	—	50	45	O+5
WA	Rasmussen	14-Oct	14-Oct	500	4.5	55	42	O+13
WA	SurveyUSA	12-Oct	14-Oct	543	4.3	54	40	O+14
WA	Washington Poll	01-Oct	16-Oct	644	3.9	51.9	42.9	O+9.0
WI	Marist	15-Oct	17-Oct	1013	3.1	51	45	O+6
WI	Marquette	11-Oct	14-Oct	870	3.4	48.5	48.1	O+0.5

Just a couple of weeks ago, Romney seemed on the road to building a solid lead in Colorado. Today, Obama has a +3% in two new polls, and Romney gets a +1.1% lead in another. But with nine current polls (and 5 of them in Obama’s favor), Obama ends up winning 71% of the elections in the state:

Two new polls in Iowa go to Obama, on by a remarkable +8% and the other one by an unremarkable +2.8%. Romney leads in none of the four current polls and the analysis suggests Obama would take the state with a 96% probability.

We also get two new Michigan polls. One has Obama up by a middling +6% and the other by an unimpressive +3.7%. Still, Obama takes all seven current polls, and Romney has not led in the past 20 polls…dating back to August. Obama is at a 99% probability of taking the state in an election now.

Two new Montana polls verify that Romney really does have a high single-digit lead. Romney is at 100% in the state.

Three Nevada polls all go to Obama by mid-single digits. Aside from one tie, Obama has led in the seven current polls. The polling trend seems to show Obama’s lead growing again and almost reaching his mid-September high:

New Hampshire flipped from Obama to Romney after the first debate. Now we may be seeing it just starting to flop back. Obama takes one of two new polls, but still lags Romney in our current polls. Based on these polls, Romney would win with a 64% probability an election held now.

Romney seem to be hanging on to his lead in North Carolina with help of this new +6%. Romney takes all five of the current polls, and would be almost certain to win the state right now:

Two new polls in Ohio both go to Obama, but by pretty small margins (+1% and +2.9%). Even so, Obama has eight of twelve current polls and his series of small leads provide evidence he would win the state in an election now with an 87% probability:

The biggest surprise of this batch of polls is that Mitt Romney finally takes the lead in one Pennsylvania poll. But, Obama leads by an equal amount in the other Pennsylvania poll, and one that is slightly larger (and newer). Overall, Obama takes seven of eight current polls, but the new one knocks Obama down to only a 92% probability of winning the state now.

Four new Washington polls give Obama leads from +5% to +14%. Combining the four current polls suggest Obama would win Washington with a probability of 100% by about +10%.

Two new Wisconsin polls both go to Obama, although one by a tiny margin. Still, with Obama up in all six current polls, it earns him a 95% probability of taking the state.

Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Obama wins 96,710 times and Romney wins 3,290 times (and Romney gets the 414 ties out of this, too). Obama receives (on average) 300 (+12) to Romney’s 238 (-12) electoral votes. The Monte Carlo analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Obama would have a 96.7% (+10.2%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 3.3% (-10.2%) probability of winning.

You could say that the past three days have not been good polling days for Romney. It is always dangerous to call a trend after a single analysis, but it look like the previous analysis marked Romney’s high water mark, about the same he achieved after the Republican convention.

This can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Oct 2011 to 18 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ). See the little upward blip?

The same upward blip can be seen in the Intrade chart of median prices that I captured this morning:

[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna, 47.1% to 46.3%

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/18/12, 4:23 pm

Yes another poll has been release in the WA gubernatorial contest between former Rep. Jay Inslee and Washington AG Rob McKenna. This one is the Washington Poll. The poll surveyed 644 likely voters from October 1 to October 16.

The poll has Inslee leading McKenna by 47.1% to 46.3%. The margin of error is 3.9%. The +0.8% lead is consistent with two other recent polls. Yesterday’s PPP poll had Inslee leading by +5%. And just before that, a SurveyUSA poll had Inslee up by +3%. This new poll covers a broader, and older set of dates.

A Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections, using only data from this new poll gives Inslee 555,393 wins to McKenna’s 432,729 wins. This suggests that, if the election was held now, Inslee would win with a probability of 56.2% and McKenna would win with a 43.8% probability.

Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

Given that we have three polls that are either consecutive or overlapping, lets look at what they have to jointly say about the state of this race.

The pooled set with this new poll and the PPP and SurveyUSA polls mentioned above give us a sample of 1,761 people. Of the 1,612 who had a partisan preference, 834 (47.4%) preferred Inslee and 788 (44.2%) preferred McKenna. The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee 835,698 wins to McKenna’s 160,205 wins.

Jointly, the polls suggest that in an election right now, Inslee would win with a 83.9% probability to McKenna’s 16.1% probability. Here is the distribution:

By standard statistical inference, Inslee’s lead isn’t quite “significant.” But the larger polling trend shows that Inslee holds a small, but consistent lead over McKenna:

Note: This post was originally written using the numbers for Registered Voters, simply because I hadn’t noticed that results for Likely Voters was available. I subsequently reanalyzed the data and rewrote the post to reflect the Likely Voter numbers. I regret the error…because, man, was that a pain in the ass!

Dear King County…what you need to know about The Real McKenna

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/18/12, 11:17 am

Over at The Stranger, Dan Savage and Goldy have teamed up to lay out the Big Case against gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna:

Rob McKenna has been running for governor his entire adult life. And his whole electoral strategy has always relied on tricking enough King County voters—voters like you—into believing he’s not another one of those Republicans. McKenna doesn’t want you to think he’s one of those Romney/Ryan class-warfare-waging, Koch-sucking GOPers who wants to bust unions, repeal Obamacare, ban gay marriage, outlaw abortion, and unravel what remains of the social safety net, all in the service of cutting taxes on corporations and millionaires.

It is an electoral strategy that almost worked for Dino Rossi in 2004, and one that McKenna has been expertly executing for years. You may have seen those posters asking you to vote for President Obama, R-74, and Rob McKenna—McKenna opposes both President Obama and R-74—and it’s clever messaging. It is also a complete and total fucking lie. And McKenna is praying that you’re stupid enough to fall for it.

But you’re not that stupid, are you?

The piece is epic…it systematically, issue by issue, lays out the case that McKenna is NOT the politician that he has been selling to King County voters. It’s a damn fine read, too.

My guess is that, if you’ve read this far, you need no further convincing. You’ve seen the arguments before—probably right here—on each point. But you’re not like every other King County voter, because most King County voters don’t read either HorsesAss or The Stranger.

Instead, they’re reading the Seattle Times Political Action Committee. They probably haven’t a clue about the Real McKenna.

Instead, these arugula-eating, Prius-driving, war-hatin’ liberals may only be listening to KUOW and KPLU. Rob may come off as, meh, but inoffensive; they don’t see the Big Picture.

Instead they’re young, politically disengaged, voters struggling with a minimum wage jobs. They’re likely unaware of the huge stake they have in this race.

What Goldy and Dan have done is given YOU a tool: A detailed, well-written, logical, and organized portfolio of The Real McKenna.

You now have the framework to educate your family, friends and neighbors that Rob Mckenna is no Dan Evans Republican. He is much closer to a Scott Walker—just a lot smarter and more cautious.

Friends don’t let friends get fooled!

Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna, 48% to 42%

by Darryl — Wednesday, 10/17/12, 10:38 pm

Just yesterday, we had a Survey USA poll to analyze in the Washington state gubernatorial contest between former Congressman Jay Inslee and Washington state AG Rob McKenna.

An now we have another poll, this one from Public Policy Polling (PPP) on behalf of the Washington Conservation Voters. The new poll is of 574 likely voters taken from October 15 to 16. The poll has Inslee leading McKenna 48% to 42%. The +5% for Inslee bests the +3% we saw yesterday.

A Monte Carlo analysis using 1,000,000 simulated elections using the new poll result gives Inslee 853,506 wins and McKenna 139,477 wins. The analysis suggests that if the election was held today, we’d expect to see Inslee come out on top 86% of the time. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

The Survey USA poll I mentioned yesterday was in the field from the 12th to the 14th of October, so it makes sense to combine these two polls as one covering the 12th through the 16th.

The Monte Carlo analysis is now working with a total of 1,117 individuals of which 531 (47.5%) selected Inslee and 480 (43.0%) selected McKenna. In the simulations Inslee wins 865,961 times. McKenna wins 128,942 times. So, in our election covering the 12th through the 16th, Inslee takes 87.0% and McKenna 13.0%. Not much difference from the PPP poll alone, really. Here’s the distribution of election results:

The new PPP Poll gives Inslee eight consecutive polls in which he is ahead of McKenna, a streak that dates back to mid-July.

As it happens, there will be a new Washington Poll released tomorrow afternoon that should have even more insight into the gubernatorial race and some of the other down-ballot races and measures. Stay tuned….

Poll Analysis: Inslee lead McKenna, 47% to 44%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/16/12, 9:08 pm

A new poll has been released for the Washington state gubernatorial contest. The Survey USA poll finds former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee leading Washington state AG Rob McKenna by 47% to 44%. The poll of 543 people (MOE 4.3) was taken from 12th to the 14th of October. The poll was commissioned by KING 5.

This new one makes seven consecutive polls in which Inslee leads McKenna, a streak that dates back to mid-July.

A Monte Carlo analysis with a million simulated elections using the newest poll results gives Inslee 692,593 wins to McKenna’s 296,697 wins. This suggests that, if the election was held today, Inslee would win with a 70% probability, and McKenna with a 30% chance. Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulation:

Inslee’s lead is not significant by standard statistical inference. Even so, the longer trajectory facilitates understanding of the state of this race:

Clearly, Inslee maintains a small, but consistent, lead in the race.

And given what a snoozer the debates have been, don’t expect any big changes in the standings.

Gubernatorial debate open thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/16/12, 8:01 pm

Our next debate in tonight’s double header is AG Rob McKenna (R) versus former WA-01 Congressman Jay Inslee. I think it is supposed to be carried by KUOW, but fucking Wiretapped is on.

So, I’ll look for the debate on my portable AM/FM/Shortwave radio, and you folks can talk about the debate. In case none of us get the debate….this is just an open thread.

8:02: There is a new poll in the gubernatorial contest. Inslee leads ~~Romney~~ McKenna. I’ll post an analysis right after the debate.

8:06: Okay…Goldy just walked in the door and tells me I can stream the debate on KING 5. Awaiting audio…

8:09: Got the video on big screen Tee Vee and the audio streaming. Has anyone ever noticed that Rob McKenna looks like a transgendered individual?

8:11: Carl Ballard was wondering what kind of pin Inslee is wearing. A hammer and sickle pin, obviously.

8:13: [Carl] For Halloween, McKenna is going to be a skeleton with a toupee.

8:14: McKenna has some round pin with shit on the inside. If I’m not mistaken, that is the official pin of the ALEC bootcamp. Am I right?

8:18: McKenna would sink the head of the ferry system! Yikes!

8:19: Rob McKenna looks like he wants to puke. Get that man a bucket!

8:21: Rob McKenna goes to REI and that somehow is related to closing tax loopholes.

8:22: Can we get to the physical confrontation part of this debate, please?

8:27: We have enter the uberwonkery part of the debate. Jay Inslee wins just because he doesn’t whine like McKenna.

8:29: The departs from the format and they ask each other questions. Oh, please. This is bullshit.

8:30: Rob McKenna gets testy…which is as close to masculine as he gets all night…just because of the word.

8:34: McKenna is totally pro-women. But Inslee points out that there are three things missing from his answer. For example, McKenna is opposed to the reproductive parity act.

8:36: A question comes, via video tape, from a sister station in Spokane. If Washington wasn’t such a backward state, that would have been a hologram!

8:41: McKenna repeats his TOTALLY retarded pseudoissue about why we shouldn’t give drivers licenses to non-citizens. Ugggh!

8:44: “Lean management” comes up again. I think Rob wins, hands down. After all, he is much leaner than Inslee. But is pronounced moobs suggests he has a recreational drug habbit. Just sayin’.

8:47: On the other hand…Inslee would pummel McKenna, if only the physical confrontation phase of this debate would start.

8:48: Mr. Brunner looks like he could use some lean management….

8:51: McKenna “only” has “technical questions” about light rail across a floating bridge. Of course, he was previously recorded, before a group of right wing reactionaries, promising to stop the project. What an asshole!

8:55: I don’t know how much longer I can listen to this. Aaaarrrrrggggghhh! Whew…closing statements!

8:57: McKenna asks if you will better off putting the same people back in office. FUCK YES. Putting an asshole phoney like Rob McKenna in office will be an utter disaster for Washington state. No question about it!

Presidential debate open thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/16/12, 5:30 pm

It seems universally accepted that Mitt Romney scored a knock-out during the last presidential debate. And Mr. and Mrs. J. Q. Public seemed totally indifferent to the fact that Romney spent the debate telling blatant lies and “refudiating” the positions he had held—sometimes just weeks before—as Conservative Mitt.

Go figure!

But I guess this means anything goes!

Tonight, with a town-hall format, and with some remedial debate training, Obama is out for revenge. The fun begins at 6:00.

I’m liveblogging the mayhem from the Montlake Ale House. I suspect Carl and N in Seattle will be there, as well. If you can, please join us—in the comment thread or at the Ale House.

There will be blood!

6:00: I’m getting the audio from KUOW, but CNN is on the Tee Vee.

6:02: Romney goes all socialist on student loans.

6:06: OMG Obama is pointing down! Noooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!

6:07: Obama gives “Number one”, “Number two” and “Number three” in his first answer. What a snob!

6:09: Mitt Romney has a five point plan! Doh! (Although…he may have lost some of his base going that high.)

6:09: Mitt indirectly takes credit for saving Detroit. Ignores that there was no private sector money available.

6:11: Obama is more aggressive this time. I’m sure FAUX News will say he seemed like an “angry militant” or something.

6:12: Mitt’s attempts to dominate the moderator don’t go over so well with Ms. Crowley….

6:14: Mitt is TOTALLY bullish on renewables! Uh-huh. A few minutes later: “More drilling. More pipelines.”

6:17: Obama mentions that, Mr. “Clean Coal” Romney, while governor, stood in front of a coal plant and said, “This Plant Kills.”

6:19: I think Obama wins the “production on government lands” debate. Romney was simply unaware of the “stagnant lease” issue.

6:23: Mitt goes into la-la land on his tax plan. He completely ignores the fact that THE FUCKING MATH DOESN’T FUCKING WORK. You cannot cut taxes on the wealthy as he proposes and make it up by eliminating deductions for ONLY the wealthy.

6:29: Obama: During the primary, he said “I’m going to give tax cuts to everyone, including the 1%.” He said just the opposite tonight. Mitt is the world’s fastest flip-flopper.

6:32: Obama lays out, in some detail, Romney’s 8 trillion dollars of tax cuts, but offers no details on paying for it, and then points out how Romney himself, as an investor, would never accept such a sketchy deal. Point: Obama.

6:35: “Of course my numbers add up.” Ummm…no they FUCKING DON’T.

6:35: [N in Seattle]: Gov. Romney, if it all adds up, PLEASE SHOW YOUR WORK!

6:36: Romney’s bullying isn’t working so well this time.

6:40: Romney keeps mentioning how there are more women in poverty now than when Obama took office. This completely ignores that that was Shrub’s doing. Unemployment was tanking when Obama came into office, and Obama turned it around. But like any ship, it took time. (See “Bikini Graph”)

6:45: Questioner asks Mitt about the difference between him and George Bush. Mitt is different from Shrub because he will adopt Jimmy Carter’s energy independence polity. Huh.

6:47: Mitt points out the differences…Obama points out the similarities between Mitt and Shrub. Well…some of them. He could-a gone further.

6:52: Mitt’s flaggy-flag pin is bigger than Obama’s. He wins.

6:54: Mitt: “We can’t afford four more years like the last four years.” Not really. What we CERTAINLY cannot afford is four more years like either of the Shrub four years. Those years were catastrophes that left the economy in shambles.

6:56: Mitt points out that the economy is growing more slowly this year than last. Ummm…the economy is GROWING. Under the last Republican President, the economy collapsed. That means NEGATIVE GROWTH. Any questions?

7:00: MITT Flip-Flops to become a Dream Act supporter. Holy shit…didn’t Mitt give Rick Perry SHIT in the primary for being weak on immigration for the same reason. What a fucking disingenuous asshole!

7:04: Mitt, transmorgrifies into Newt Gingrich: “I don’t want to round up 12 million people….”

7:08: Terry asks about security at an embassy in Benghazi. Obama doesn’t point out that there is no embassy in that city. (It is a Consulate.)

7:14: Obama rightly points out that the VERY DAY after the attack, he called it a terrorist attack. Mitt challenges that, and gets absolutely spanked by the moderator AND the crowd. (Bad, crowd…bad, bad, crowd.)

7:17: Questioner asks how Obama is keeping AK47s out of the hands of criminals. Obama starts out by profession loyalty to the 2nd amendment. And then says stuff…hard to follow.

7:19: There is a HUGE crowd here at the Ale House. I’m guessing 30 people here for the debate, on top of other customers.

7:23: Mitt gets cut short for not actually addressing the question about AK47s. Starts talking about hunters. FAYLE!

7:24: Obama points out that Mitt has flipped flopped on the assault weapons ban. Ouch!

7:26: Carol asks how to bring jobs home. Mitt welcomes the question…pretending that he isn’t the king of innovation in outsourcing!!!

7:28: Mitt seems to believe that business chose a “country” to be in based on tax rates. If so, you’d think that Somalia would be the business haven of the world.

7:32: Mitt, “China has been cheating.” Huh…you never did anything to encourage that behavior, did you, Willard?

7:34: Mitt’s answer on misperceptions about his disdain of the common man would be MUCH more convincing if he hadn’t been video taped telling wealthy donors that he doesn’t give a shit about 47% of Americans. Just sayin’

7:39: ITS OVER. The bloodied and battered robot Romney grabs his cheat sheet and limps off the stage….