Goldy

I’m sitting on the airplane listening to Everclear on my iPhone (though isn’t “Volvo Driving Soccer Mom” the official theme song of the Republican convention?), and wondering what the he’ll I’m going to do once I get to Denver? Blog, I guess.

Anyway, expect a lot of short posts this week, some with pix, as I blog directly from my iPhone. Longer posts will have to wait until I have WIFI access, and a little time.

(In the cab now; time to post.)

Darryl and I are off to Denver, and look who we found at the airport. Now I feel like real press. (That is, asuming The Stranger is real press.)

Well, that’s a relief.  The best thing Bayh and Kaine had going for them was geography, but they were both way too conservative for my taste, while Biden’s experience  adds a nice balance to the ticket that I think most voters will find comforting.  Obama didn’t play games; he picked a VP undoubtedly qualified to be president, and I think that says something about Obama.

It turns out, McCain doesn’t know what kind of car he drives either:

In our News interview, he was asked what kind of car he drove. As with Politico’s question about home ownership, he didn’t know and had to ask a nearby aide. “A Cadillac CTS,” she told him.

But then again, he is 72, so cut him some slack.

There were more than a few miffed members of the press Wednesday evening after being lured to Dave Reichert’s campaign headquarters by a media advisory promising a “major announcement,” only to find delusional fringe challenger Jim Vaughn at the podium, offering his enthusiastic endorsement.

“He’s earned my respect,” Vaughn (drunk on the power that comes from capturing a whopping 3% of the vote) said of the “yes man for George Bush” he previously accused of not having passed “one piece of legislation.”

Um… a “major” announcement…?  Yeah, well, I guess so, that is, if Reichert was referring to Vaughn’s former army rank, but as far as announcements go, this one wasn’t all that.  But then I guess that’s just an indication of how incredibly close Reichert expects this race to be, that he’s now aggressively wooing the crackpot vote.

“I really did want to knock Dave out,” [Vaughn] said. But that was a strategy rather than a disagreement with Reichert’s positions, he said. He figured if he beat Reichert in the primary, he would earn conservative Democratic and Republican votes and easily beat Burner.

Yeah… sure you would, Jim.  Here, have some gum.

Still, every vote counts, so perhaps Reichert is onto a winning strategy that might soon be adopted by other nervous contenders, suddenly transforming the dregs of the ballot into the toast of the power elite.  Familiar names like Stan Lippman, Will Baker and David Blomstrom could find themselves courted by top-two finalists eager to win over the tens of votes each almost-also-ran commands, a loyal political base earned from years of running hopeless campaigns without ever smelling of poop.  (Well, maybe Will.)

Indeed, at this very moment I wouldn’t be surprised if Linda Averill is busy negotiating a workers paradise in exchange for her prized endorsement, while Goodspaceguy Nelson has all but secured federal earmarks to fund the colonization of orbital space.  And then there’s Mike the Mover, the Boss Tweed of perennial crackpottery, who in the context of this closely divided electorate not only has the political muscle to get you to the other Washington, but the truck as well.

Think about it… if the gubernatorial race is anywhere near as close as it was in 2004, Javier Lopez could be the deciding factor, his endorsement bringing with it the small yet highly sought after “I had sex with my high school teacher, and I’m proud of it” vote.

So kudos to Reichert for running such a groundbreaking campaign:  first his pioneering use of web videos, and now his successful outreach to Jim Vaughn, a grassroots champion who by the end of July had nearly come within $1,980,000 of the $1.98 million Darcy Burner has raised thus far.  I’m sure the press is sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for Reichert’s next “major announcement.”

Note to self: Stephen Roach is the gun-toting drug dealer… Dan Roach is merely the campaign fund embezzler.

Remember that video of off-duty police officers roughing up a Democratic Party cameraman at a press conference at the Seattle Police Officers Guild?  Well, an observant 45th LD viewer asked me, “Isn’t that Republican legislative candidate Kevin Haistings?”

Hmm.  Above is a picture of Haistings compared to a frame from the video, and they do indeed appear to be the same person.  Haistings is also an active member and past president of the Guild, so I guess it makes sense for him to have been there.

Am I the only one who finds it a touch unsettling watching a Republican candidate for the state legislature roughing up a Democratic Party staffer for attempting to video tape the Republican candidate for governor?

Perhaps we can just blame sundowners, but John McCain doesn’t even know how many houses he owns.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in an interview Wednesday that he was uncertain how many houses he and his wife, Cindy, own.

“I think – I’ll have my staff get to you,” McCain told Politico in Las Cruces, N.M. “It’s condominiums where – I’ll have them get to you.”

The correct answer is at least four, located in Arizona, California and Virginia, according to his staff. Newsweek estimated this summer that the couple owns at least seven properties.

And we’re told Barack Obama is the elitist?

What’s fair is fair.  I give the Seattle Times editorial board a lot of shit for propagandizing on behalf of their favorite candidates and issues… so I suppose they deserve some kudos for giving some shit to one of their homies, Dino Rossi, for his own lying propaganda:

Republican gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi is running radio and TV ads that lambaste Gov. Christine Gregoire for doing precisely what our state needed to do. Raise the gas tax. Get a few transportation projects done. Help businesses and motorists get moving.

Rossi’s ads are artfully misleading. They all but blame the governor for today’s higher gas prices. That is not what happened.

[…] Rossi’s gas-tax ads are unfair; he would be wise to pull them.

Of course, Rossi won’t pull these ads, because they accurately reflect his own artfully misleading personality, but it’s heartening to see the Times calling him out on it.

It would have felt good to see Darcy Burner come out of yesterday’s primary with a modest victory.  Good, but not especially comfortable considering the low turnout, partial results and unfathomable dynamics of our new top-two primary.  But at what will likely be less than a three-point deficit to Dave Reichert once all the votes are counted, I’m not feeling especially uncomfortable either.

On the obvious down side, Reichert ended up on top, and by a similar margin as his 2006 general election victory.  But on the up side, Reichert was held significantly below 50 percent… not a great place to be for a two-term incumbent.  Indeed, according to a memo distributed today by Burner pollster Celinda Lake, Reichert’s demonstrated lack of support should be “sobering news” for the incumbent:

[D]espite his turnout advantages, the incumbent has been held under 50 percent of the primary vote, and the combined Democratic vote is greater than the Republican vote. This is sobering news for Reichert. The top two system, which allows for voters to split tickets on the primary ballot, most closely resembles the blanket primary system that prevailed in Washington State prior to 2003. Our research indicates that in the 94 congressional races that took place under a blanket primary between 1982 and 2002, the incumbent failed to register 50 percent of the primary tally in 10 of those contests. In seven of those contests, the challenger went on to victory in November…

Prior results do not guarantee future performance and all that, but it’s hardly a bleak situation for Darcy, who finds herself in a significantly stronger position than she was in at this stage of the 2006 race.  Heading toward November Darcy can expect a resource advantage, a turnout advantage and presidential coattails to help carry her through to victory.  And even yesterday’s results show progress; I don’t know of a single  public or private poll that showed Darcy closer than six points to Reichert in recent months, and yet after only two weeks of advertising (at a cost, I’m guessing, of about $400,000) she’s managed to cut that gap in half.  By comparison, an August 21-22 2006 SurveyUSA poll gave Reichert a 54-41 percent lead, a 13-point margin Darcy eventually whittled down to three by election day.

So yeah, I’d rather be up three points than down, but given all the same caveats I issued in my discussion of the governor’s race, I’m no more or less worried than I was Tuesday morning.  For if there’s a conclusion to be drawn from the primary results, it’s that this race is once again going to come down to the wire.  And that’s something we’ve known all along.

Caveats abound in any analysis of yesterday’s primary election, with low voter turnout, partial results and a first ever top-two format making direct comparisons and general election projections all but impossible.  But trends are trends, and the one that immediately jumped out last night from the very first drop was the dramatic improvement Gov. Chris Gregoire registered in county after county, relative to the performance of her Grand Old Party Party opponent Dino Rossi.  And that can’t bode too well for Dino.

The top two format and the lack of any legitimate intraparty nomination battle essentially turned yesterday’s primary into a straw poll between Gregoire and Rossi, and so I have chosen to compare the two candidate’s relative performance to the last time the two faced off against each other head to head in the 2004 general election.  This is admittedly an imperfect comparison—the primary electorate is not the same universe of voters as that in the general—but far preferable to attempting to draw conclusions from a comparison to the 2004 primary, which might as well have been conducted in an alternate universe.

The 2004 general was of course excruciatingly close:  a legitimate win for Gov. Gregoire under Washington’s election statutes, but realistically, a statistical tie.  In Gregoire’s favor this time around are the inherent advantages of incumbency, a campaign team that recognizes Rossi as a legitimate threat, and a track record in office that establishes her as a competent, moderate and unscary executive.  In Rossi’s favor… lingering, bitter resentment over his almost-victory four years ago.

Opinion polls have long shown the governor with a modest but consistent lead, and after a couple months and a couple million dollars of attack ads, yesterday was an opportunity to see if voters were moving toward one candidate or the other.  And, well, it’s hard to argue that they’re moving toward Rossi.

Even with more than a half dozen spoilers in the race compared to the lone Libertarian in the 2004 general, Gregoire has thus far increased her percentage of the vote in 23 of 39 counties, compared to only three such counties for Rossi.  But a more meaningful analysis of Gregoire and Rossi’s relative, county by county performance, as illustrated in the chart below, comes from comparing the margin separating the two candidates… a margin that has moved in Gregoire’s favor in a whopping 30 of 39 counties.

Once King County’s votes come in, Gov. Gregoire will likely end up leading Rossi by a roughly 50% to 45% margin statewide, and while it is no doubt tricky to adjust for the impact of minor candidates, there is no reason to suspect that the remaining five-percent of the vote will strongly break one way or the other in the general.  Likewise, there is no compelling evidence that turnout in this primary advantaged one party or the other in any region of the state.  Indeed, yesterday’s election proved awfully damn consistent with opinion polls that continue to show Gregoire with a modest but steady lead.

If there is a conclusion to be made it is that this was an opportunity for angry voters to repudiate Gov. Gregoire… and they didn’t.

Still, this race is far from over; an awful lot of money will be spent between now and November attempting to sway voters from one side to the other, while the expected crush of general election voters makes any analysis of primary results speculative at best.  But if Rossi supporters were looking for good news in yesterday’s results, I don’t think they found any.

I stayed up late last night watching the election results come in, when clearly my time would have been better spent speculatively writing about the results, uninformed.  Ah well.

Obviously, the big winners last night were the Supreme Court and Appeals Court incumbents, who all won reelection yesterday by securing 50% plus one majorities (and for the most part, much higher) against their opponents… assuming they had one.  So much for that “throw the bums out” attitude.  Gov. Gregoire also appears to be a big winner, improving her performance in county after county… but you’ll just have to wait for me to digest the incomplete results and my morning pot of green tea before I comment any further.