HorsesAss.Org

  • Home
  • About HA
  • Advertise
  • Archives
  • Donate

Senate Race 2022

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/4/22, 7:24 pm

Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
97.2% probability
2.8% probability
Mean of 51 seats
Mean of 49 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I saw a headline today saying that Republicans had made some gains in the Senate contest. So I decided to update the polls and see what tale they had to tell.

The previous analysis from 12 days ago gave the Democrats a 98.1% probability of taking the Senate with a mean of 51 seats.

With today’s polls, after 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 74100 times, there were 23093 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 2807 times. Democrats have a 97.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 2.8% probability of controlling the Senate. So, I guess there was a tiny movement toward Republican control.

Some states, like Colorado, Illinois, and New Hampshire, have moved a bit more into the Democrat column. But Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the other way. It is almost a wash.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 97.2%, Republicans control the Senate 2.8%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 51.2 ( 1.1)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 48.8 ( 1.1)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 51 (49, 53)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 49 (47, 51)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 34
  • Independent seats w/no election: two
  • Republican seats w/no election: 29
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 13
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: one

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 47
Strong Democrat 3 50
Leans Democrat 0 0 50
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 50
Weak Republican 0 0 0 50
Leans Republican 5 5 50
Strong Republican 10 45
Safe Republican 35

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample Percent Percent Democrat Republican
State @ polls size Democrat Republican % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 9 6018 54.3 45.7 100.0 0.0
AR 1 618 41.3 58.7 0.1 99.9
CA 0 0 (100) (0)
CO 3 2667 55.0 45.0 100.0 0.0
CT 2 2435 58.4 41.6 100.0 0.0
FL 6 3396 47.5 52.5 2.0 98.0
GA 8 7128 51.2 48.8 92.9 7.1
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 1 805 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
IN 1 456 48.7 51.3 35.1 64.9
IA 1& 514 45.3 54.7 6.9 93.1
KS 1 784 42.2 57.8 0.1 99.9
KY 1& 588 41.5 58.5 0.3 99.7
LA 0 0 (0) (100)
MD 1 666 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
MO 2 1560 43.3 56.7 0.0 100.0
NV 5 3721 48.8 51.2 15.6 84.4
NH 7 5381 54.1 45.9 100.0 0.0
NY 2 1454 62.6 37.4 100.0 0.0
NC 5 3603 49.2 50.8 24.3 75.7
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 5 3698 49.3 50.7 26.9 73.1
OK 2 814 43.6 56.4 0.4 99.6
OK 1 430 39.5 60.5 0.1 99.9
OR 2 1507 61.4 38.6 100.0 0.0
PA 9 6780 52.6 47.4 99.9 0.1
SC 1& 546 40.7 59.3 0.0 100.0
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 3 1198 46.6 53.4 4.7 95.3
VT 1 996 53.5 46.5 94.5 5.5
WA 5 3361 54.4 45.6 100.0 0.0
WI 8 5709 49.2 50.8 18.4 81.6

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Share:

  • Tweet
  • Email
  • Print

Related

Comments

  1. 1

    We’d be better off if Trump had been re-elected spews:

    Wednesday, 10/5/22 at 8:24 am

    We’d be better off if Trump had been re-elected.

  2. 2

    RedReformed spews:

    Wednesday, 10/5/22 at 9:11 am

    @1. Off topic. This is specifically about Senate Race polling and issues.

Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 3/31/23
  • Wednesday Morning Open Thread Wednesday, 3/29/23
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 3/28/23
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 3/27/23
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 3/24/23
  • Fry Dei Oh Pen The Red Friday, 3/24/23
  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 3/22/23
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 3/21/23
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 3/20/23
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 3/17/23
Tweets by @GoldyHA

From the Cesspool…

  • Ggggggeeee Money! on Friday Open Thread
  • Ggggggeeee Money! on Friday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Open Thread
  • Ggggggeeee Money! on Friday Open Thread
  • Elijah Dominic McDotcom on Friday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Open Thread
  • Vicious Troll on Friday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Friday Open Thread

Please Donate

Currency:

Amount:

Archives

Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?

Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!

Search HA

Follow Goldy

[iire_social_icons]

HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.

© 2004–2023, All rights reserved worldwide. Except for the comment threads. Because fuck those guys. So there.